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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Opportunity plays a role. No one on the team had even 600 PA (68 major leaguers reached that lofty threshold in 2025), but Larnach led the Twins with 567. Being third in RBIs seems like a black mark, not a gold star, for a guy whose only value is with the bat. In fairness, he did bat leadoff 14% of the time and in the 2-hole another 32%. But even in the 231 PA he batted 3rd or 4th, he racked up only 24 RBIs - at that rate he'd need nearly 1000 tries to accumulate 100 RBI. Teammate Byron Buxton achieved 83 RBIs in fewer PA; that's a bat that would be hard to replace. Jo Adell of the lowly Angels (hardly a run-producing powerhouse franchise) managed 98 RBI in his 573 plate appearances - maybe hitting 37 HR instead of Larnach's 17 had something to do with the discrepancy. There were plenty of players who produced RBIs for the Twins at a similar rate to Larnach. If he were gone, the plate appearances would be spread around and you'd never notice the difference, even as the roster stands now. Cody Freaking Klemens (a player I could hardly be accused of woofing for) would help fill the gap, for instance - Ty France did better too, and he didn't cost what Larnach is about to command in salary. Don't use RBIs as any kind of defense of Larnach's value in 2025. And if as you suggest he's not easy to replace, to say nothing of improving on? That would be a black mark on the FO.
  2. ashbury
    About what? "So, Brent, what's it like hitting from the other side of the plate?"
  3. ashbury
    We are watching an entertaining game.
  4. ashbury
    Entertaining game though. I just didn't check the internet until now.
  5. ashbury
    Could have been worse. It could have been 60 miles.
  6. ashbury
    I prefer to use an analogy to Public Relations, seeking to place your product in the best possible light each time, accepting that the buying public will judge.
  7. ashbury
    I've rebuilt franchises in one off-season playing OOTP. (Easy mode)
  8. ashbury
    Which means he has the highest value to the Twins themselves right now. If they were going for it. Which trading all their good bullpen arms under 2025-26 control denies they will be doing. Which is what makes me sick.
  9. ashbury
    It's the situational splits, if you want to use OPS as a guide. For his career, his OPS when the game is within 1 run has been .708. Once the game margin is more than 4 runs, his OPS swells to 1.090. His 2025 was like this but even a little more extreme. Once the game is pretty much decided, Wallner's your man. I think that's where the "disconnect between perception and reality" comes from - because totals aren't necessarily "reality" and sometimes perception is a clue to look deeper. By contrast, this year Byron Buxton was good in those >4 Run situations, .841 OPS - but he was even better when the game was within 1 run, .971. Most of us enjoyed Buxton's season, and he defies the MLB-wide trend, which in 2025 was .746/.713 - almost everybody hits a little better when the game gets out of hand. Wallner's just been an extreme case.
  10. ashbury
    2. Then 3. ???? 4. Profit! 🙃
  11. ashbury
    1985 and especially 1986 looked like regression. The magical 1987 post-season happened only because they were in the weak Western Division, nosing out KC and Oakland - 4 East teams were ahead of them in wins. Taken literally, your template is risky in terms of milestones along the way. and the patience a repeat of 1985/6 would require now. Nine years into Falvey's regime, I'd be more inclined to insist on progress each year, rather than implicitly give a 5-year blank check to try giving us a winner again. Now, if Falvey were replaced by someone good from outside, I'd have no choice but to sit tight for this 5-year plan.
  12. ashbury
    Discussion of Houston and Baltimore needs to be supplemented by at least a mention of Pittsburgh's perpetual rebuilding status.
  13. ashbury
    ... and instead now stands as the holder of the highest winning percentage of the Pohlad era.
  14. ashbury
    If they hire Rowson I suggest they give Pete Maki a raise and guarantee his contract for the length of Rowson's. I'm thinking the pitching coach and the bench coach (whoever that turns out to be) will be pretty key in making sure Rowson's handling of the pitching staff is as good as possible - unless Rowson has some track record with pitchers that I'm unaware of. I trust he'll be a good learner in that dimension.
  15. ashbury
    "Degree of Difficulty" is one of the criteria when they hand out year-end front office awards at the Winter Meetings in December 2026. 🙃
  16. ashbury
    Going trick or treating as the Ghost of Louie Varland would be a home run!
  17. ashbury
    FTFY
  18. ashbury
    All C(K)odys, All Day, All The Time
  19. ashbury
    It'll come down to which of these gentlemen will accept a one-year contract. 🙃
  20. ashbury
    Interesting. Might be worth someone's study, if the Twins are just a statistical fluke.
  21. ashbury
    No, my POV is the opposite of what you might have assumed, and I was looking for something specific to riff off of, not a gotcha. I've lived in a few major league markets, and I was in the Twin Cities for about 20 years - and have been gone now for nearly 30. (And no, that does not make me "about 50," LOL.) The relationship between localities and their teams varies - for some it's a love-hate relationship, for others it's love win-or-lose. I have to say that the Twin Cities seemed, to me anyway, as somewhat uniquely "transactional" in their relationship with the Twins: build me a winner and maybe I'll buy a ticket or two in the cheap seats next season if the winning continues. It's the endpoint of why I haven't been especially vocal regarding whether or not to fire Rocco. Fire him, and you still have Falvey. I've come to view Falvey as running a below average but not incompetent front office. Fire him, and you still have the constraints that ownership will place on the next young, eager FO underling they bring in to turn things around. I don't have positive feelings for Twins ownership. Instead of building a warm relationship with the fans, coaxing folks to come out and have a good time win or lose like seems to be happening in Denver (because losing is bound to happen some years for any but the largest market teams), they have shot themselves in the foot with bland marketing and (lately) a propensity for truly tone-deaf statements in public such as Right Sizing. But get rid of current ownership and bring in some new and enthusiastic business folk, and you still have a franchise located in a place where "The Opener" always has meant, and always will continue to mean, hunting and fishing. I don't think it's a good baseball town. That plus the constraints of the current CBA make it too tough. When new owners eventually come I hope they do have ideas on this general front that prove me wrong. Because I basically don't. I know this isn't going to be popular, but there it is. Your use of "partial" piqued my interest but I didn't want to guess.
  22. ashbury
    You must be fun at Cinco de Mayo parties. 🙃
  23. ashbury
    Few if any here absolve ownership of all blame. You're suggesting there are things outside their control. Care to elaborate on what you had in mind?
  24. ashbury
    If it helps, you can say I'm from Blaine.
  25. ashbury
    I appreciate the response but I can't quite click Like. That's a pretty pessimistic take on the man, and you may be right but I hope not. Here's the problem for Wallner. There are guys, such as Buxton, about whom people say admiringly, "he can beat you in so many ways." When he had a tough day at the plate, prime Buxton could still stop a rally with a stellar catch that an opposing player probably wouldn't have been capable of - or if he lucks out and finds himself on first base he can still take a base that doesn't belong to him at some point thereafter. That's not Wallner. He can beat the other team precisely one way unless something flukish happens on the diamond. And the stats I summarized suggest that, in 2025, he wasn't even beating teams in that one way. People tout Wallner's arm as a second way he can beat an opponent, but I'm hard pressed to recall one instance of a game-saving throw from him. Most people probably remember Eddie Rosario's throw in Boston nailing Devers in the ninth, instance. A Google search for Wallner throws merely turns up a case of him getting thrown out at home, LOL. I don't advocate trading Wallner away (mostly because I doubt he'd actually bring back very much), but his career is at a crossroads at the moment. He needs to get better, in terms of winning, at the one thing he does.
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