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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Kudos to the FO if they can get much for Max. He's not a bad player - league average is nothing to scoff at because of the high level of overall talent - but he's past his inexpensive years, and other teams have corner OF players they may forecast to produce about as much for much less cost. A contending team probably shoots for higher, a rebuilding team won't want a veteran like him. If he goes it'll be part of a package, but I can't begin to guess what team(s) would bid for him - Phillies? Giants? As with many trade candidates, he's probably just about as valuable as a RF/bench piece to his current team, as he'd bring back in trade.
  2. ashbury
    Just to be clear, this wasn't a single year's draft, it was a compilation of all the best prospects in the system, whatever way they were acquired, at that snapshot in time. That list would be a hell of a draft, though. Maybe it's my incurable optimism, but I think the retrospective on this year's 2022 ranking of prospects will look better than this one, 4 years (or is it more like 5) down the line. The list of 9 players who populated major league rosters this year is so-so, overall. We lamented the loss of Wade, Baddoo, etc, but see now that we didn't lose THAT much. Still, it always bothered me that these players were snapped up by other teams, yet presumably the FO wasn't able to work out trades for something of value before they were exposed. At least a lottery-ticket arm in low A ball, for instance. This was mlb.com's ranking. TD had a ranking too, did it not? How did TD's do in comparison? Where the lists differed, was the trend that if TD ranked them higher the player has done better by now?
  3. ashbury
    Now adjust your sarcasm meter. I thought I gave away the joke with the second line at the bottom. But if you're looking for a serious reply to the point about Lewis's error rate, I believe raw numbers of errors are not considered a primary way to evaluate a shortstop.
  4. ashbury
    He'll be fine. He's made only 6 total errors in the last three years. / 0 games 2020-21. Picky picky picky.
  5. ashbury
    The trade made sense at the time even if Donaldson had done well. As events came out, it's just icing on the cake. Only thing I didn't like was throwing in Rortvedt. I don't like giving up pitching, but I think I'd have preferred the sweetener be a young lottery ticket arm than him. Better would have been a corner bat like Sabato, but that kind of hope is pretty vain these days.
  6. ashbury
    [Comment redacted - I just remembered this is a Bogaerts thread]
  7. ashbury
  8. ashbury
    The latest update I've seen on Miller is that he won't turn 20 for a few more weeks. Mentioning him in the same breath with these other SS prospects is way premature IMO. Far too young to flush away; far too young to count on yet, either.
  9. ashbury
    I had honestly forgotten how consistently good he's been at the plate. My recollection was he's been up and down, but his last mediocre season was when he was 24. Since then his OPS+ has been between 128 and 139 for five years. And decent defense? I like Correa better but if the terms for Bogaerts are better then go get 'um.
  10. ashbury
    WAR is backward looking. "What did the guy contribute during the season in question?" If he DHed, then the contribution is lower - Buxton's dWAR suffers for that reason in 2022 as well, as he wasn't good to go in CF. It's fair in one sense, unilluminating in another. The data is there but it's not presented usefully for projecting. I too would like to see some kind of split-outs, because that would be used for deciding what if a guy played a position full time. Gordon, Miranda, Arraez, and I'm probably forgetting someone - hard to see where the opportunities are on all of them. Positional flexibility is desirable but blended stats make it hard
  11. ashbury
    That 7-minute video clip should be required viewing. "Carlos, get your nose out of those spreadsheets. Pedro, put away that computer."
  12. ashbury
    Fair points, but you realize I was joking around. Drafting that deep is always a crapshoot. I guess fact-checking my nonsense is just deserts though.
  13. ashbury
    First baseman Lyle Overbay and pitcher Tommy Hunter both put up 10+ WAR after having been drafted #538. The Twins continue to be snakebit, drafting one too late!
  14. ashbury
    I don't know where to find home/road splits of BABIP, but I think there is good reason to believe it's the explanation for the disparity. And thus, not sustainable. I'm with you, it's not worth a few million dollars to find out what gas is left in that tank.
  15. ashbury
    This is useful insight and I believe in it. And yet, the man hit .315 on the road in 2022. At home the BA was only .264. Such a reverse split is not likely sustainable. So, which is the real Iglesias?
  16. ashbury
    What they'd receive in trade would be a player the other team was preparing to discard anyway. Which IMO is how the Twins acquired Pagan from the Padres in the first place. DFA.
  17. ashbury
    Good! I mean, are you saying you would use Wallner as a backup for Buxton?
  18. ashbury
    Yes, because he'll be paid significantly. In the off season, trade partners probably are most concerned about price-performance. At the deadline, it becomes more about performance, because whatever price there was is already 2/3 paid.
  19. ashbury
    They are not similar players at all and would occupy different roles if on the same roster.
  20. ashbury
    He'll still have trade value at the deadline if he turns out to be redundant. At the moment, he isn't.
  21. ashbury
    Fair question but I don't really worry about the #1, #2 thing for starting rotation. I just want good pitchers. My only concept about the numbering is that there is no such thing as a #5. That's a temporary spot - for aging players trying to demonstrate they still have value, young players trying to prove they belong in a major league starting rotation, and spot starters who will be DFA right after the game. Signing someone like Dylan Bundy for several million and justifying it as solidifying the #5 is a waste of money in my book.
  22. ashbury
    This team had a losing record in 2022. Gio Urshela contributed to 72 of the paltry 78 wins during the season. No one else had even 70 winning games. All this emphasis on Analytics - runs scored and runs batted in and batting average and some numbers even more arcane - who cares when the team loses? Gio went 72-72. Arraez went 68-76.. Correa went 66-70. Give it to Gio.
  23. ashbury
    Duran had an elite year. The others under consideration didn't; their years were such that they weren't on the "needs fixing" list.
  24. ashbury
    Teams make waiver claims, and then turn around and put them back on waivers as soon as there's the slightest need for that roster spot, lather rinse repeat. Maybe Cave makes it to the Oriole's AAA club, maybe some other team's. I can't picture him remaining on anybody's 40-man all offseason.
  25. ashbury
    I would love to acquire Moreno to catch, but he seems about as untouchable a prospect as there is.
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