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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Fair points, but you realize I was joking around. Drafting that deep is always a crapshoot. I guess fact-checking my nonsense is just deserts though.
  2. ashbury
    First baseman Lyle Overbay and pitcher Tommy Hunter both put up 10+ WAR after having been drafted #538. The Twins continue to be snakebit, drafting one too late!
  3. ashbury
    I don't know where to find home/road splits of BABIP, but I think there is good reason to believe it's the explanation for the disparity. And thus, not sustainable. I'm with you, it's not worth a few million dollars to find out what gas is left in that tank.
  4. ashbury
    This is useful insight and I believe in it. And yet, the man hit .315 on the road in 2022. At home the BA was only .264. Such a reverse split is not likely sustainable. So, which is the real Iglesias?
  5. ashbury
    What they'd receive in trade would be a player the other team was preparing to discard anyway. Which IMO is how the Twins acquired Pagan from the Padres in the first place. DFA.
  6. ashbury
    Good! I mean, are you saying you would use Wallner as a backup for Buxton?
  7. ashbury
    Yes, because he'll be paid significantly. In the off season, trade partners probably are most concerned about price-performance. At the deadline, it becomes more about performance, because whatever price there was is already 2/3 paid.
  8. ashbury
    They are not similar players at all and would occupy different roles if on the same roster.
  9. ashbury
    He'll still have trade value at the deadline if he turns out to be redundant. At the moment, he isn't.
  10. ashbury
    Fair question but I don't really worry about the #1, #2 thing for starting rotation. I just want good pitchers. My only concept about the numbering is that there is no such thing as a #5. That's a temporary spot - for aging players trying to demonstrate they still have value, young players trying to prove they belong in a major league starting rotation, and spot starters who will be DFA right after the game. Signing someone like Dylan Bundy for several million and justifying it as solidifying the #5 is a waste of money in my book.
  11. ashbury
    This team had a losing record in 2022. Gio Urshela contributed to 72 of the paltry 78 wins during the season. No one else had even 70 winning games. All this emphasis on Analytics - runs scored and runs batted in and batting average and some numbers even more arcane - who cares when the team loses? Gio went 72-72. Arraez went 68-76.. Correa went 66-70. Give it to Gio.
  12. ashbury
    Duran had an elite year. The others under consideration didn't; their years were such that they weren't on the "needs fixing" list.
  13. ashbury
    Teams make waiver claims, and then turn around and put them back on waivers as soon as there's the slightest need for that roster spot, lather rinse repeat. Maybe Cave makes it to the Oriole's AAA club, maybe some other team's. I can't picture him remaining on anybody's 40-man all offseason.
  14. ashbury
    I would love to acquire Moreno to catch, but he seems about as untouchable a prospect as there is.
  15. ashbury
    A 5th starter that can pitch the minimum 5 quality innings on the avg. ... Your standards are impossibly high in the present game. Only one pitcher, Alcantara, even meets your standard for a 2nd starter, as he's the only one who averaged even 7 innings per start. The rest-of-the-best in the majors averaged in the 6s.
  16. ashbury
    Duran established himself as an elite reliever. There's a couple of guys in the AL on a par with his 2022. I"m grateful to have him. As for whom he beats out for honors on the Twins, it's an incredibly weak field, in some cases due to partial seasons on the IL. Looking at Wins Above Average (which gives a little edge to top relievers relative to its cousin WAR) on b-r.com as a quick and dirty estimate, Duran would be a clear choice only on Detroit or Oakland, teams we wouldn't want to emulate. He might be in the conversation if on Seattle, versus Logan Gilbert. No other team, though.
  17. ashbury
    Oui.
  18. ashbury
    It was the unexpected feature that got me. (I was typing a number into the blank SS salary slot, pressed the return key out of habit, et, voilà.)
  19. ashbury
    I clicked on the master link, experimented with the interface on one cell for a minute, and suddenly I had posted. If I knew how to delete things, I would. I guess the die is cast now, and I have a last place team.
  20. ashbury
    C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.7M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.5M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 13.21% under budget
  21. ashbury
    $42M a year starts the conversation, but for how long a contract?
  22. ashbury
    And the two Jakes still wouldn't consume as many plate appearances as Aaron, leaving room for some rookies to step up and contribute! You could have an OPS above 2.000 before you know it.
  23. ashbury
    I have unhappy visions of the Twins dropping Correa's contract and not replacing it with anything significant, leaving payroll somewhere around $100 or a bit under. The rationale would be that attendance is down, something Dave St Peter already has floated, so the public bears the blame. That would drop the Twins rank from the current #18 to somewhere around #23 in the majors for payroll. The Offseason Handbook's table of recent history indicates that the Twins haven't ranked that low since 2017 (#21). So, maybe my worst case estimate of what they'll do is a bit low. Cot's ranks the Reds at #21, with a payroll of about $114M. Maybe that's around the comfort level where the Twins will settle in - no more of this rarefied #18 air.
  24. ashbury
    Keep these reports coming!
  25. ashbury
    Enjoy your short stay as a TD member.
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