ashbury

tl;dnr summary: Following his TJS in 2017, Trevor was a workhorse reliever 2019-2021, with nary a trip to the Injured List according to his page on mlb.com. 2022 was a different story, with a 60-day IL stint May-July and then another 15-day stay in September. So I'd be leery. In a vacuum he could be a good gamble, but this Twins pitching staff needs to skew healthier for 2023, not riskier. I hope they have better analytics for pitcher health than the "next year is best predicted by the most recent season" rule of thumb that I use. "When healthy" should be banished from the FO's jargon.

But but but.... if they do a long term contract, which is necessary to attract most difference-makers at any position, and then it doesn't work out, they won't have the wherewithal to go do another one. Better to just do nothing and sing the not-a-top-market blues.

Of course. Who wouldn't? And the present Twins FO has tried twice with Royce Lewis and now Brooks Lee. Meanwhile, until that pans out (if ever), the choice is Correa or not, Bogaerts or not, et cetera, and not some other player under team control.

The trade package for Pablo Lopez seems light from Miami's perspective. Nimmo might be the straw that stirs the drink, though. He won't be cheap but your salary guess seems close.

To paraphrase Al Campanis, Calvin Griffith lacked the necessities to be a modern sports team owner.

But forget the groan emoji or whatever. I need a way to donate the Likes bestowed on my puny offering, in deference to your truly epic groaner there.

???‍♂️ Puke, poop, facepalm. Take your pick, among the many that TD offers if you click that little smiley face in the edit GUI.

Someone does. ? Baseball-reference.com on their Fielding page for catchers. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-specialpos_c-fielding.shtml#all_players_players_advanced_fielding_c_fielding Sort on the team column for ease of comparison, and you'll see that Jeffers's ERA was more than half a run better than his teammate Rodriguez Gonzalez Sanchez. (The fine print: The last I ever looked at literature on Catcher ERA, the conclusion was that it's not a very reliable measure from one year to the next, and therefore not really a repeatable skill. To be clear, there is skill, it's just CERA doesn't seem to capture it reliably. Also, if there actually is any meaning to be had in this particular comparison, it may be more a negative reflection on Sanchez than praise for Jeffers, since the same page for 2021 had Sanchez worse than his teammate Higashioka. IMO such comparisons require a lot more care than I'm capable of.)

And now he gets to be mentioned in the same breath with Willie Mays, forever. Nice outcome.

That first player you named is nowhere near worth it. ? Let's go with Reynolds. He's an interesting comp to Murphy. 3 years of team control. Up the middle defense. Murphy got a Gold Glove in 2021, while I'm not sure Reynold's defense is as well regarded but a centerfielder isn't going to be a clown. (BTW speaking of not being a clown in CF I hope you enjoyed Chas McCormick's catch in the 9th last night, replay isn't ever going to do it justice compared to the drama of seeing it unfold in realtime.) Reynolds is an even more expensive trade option than Murphy, according to that trade simulator site. 59.9 to 51.3. About 16% higher. That's a whole additional good prospect more, like Josh Winder or Edouard Julien as the sweetener. Reynolds in the last two years has 256 starts in CF. Murphy has 220 starts at Catcher in that same span. About 16% difference. Both have 35 starts as DH (or DH and LF about equally in the case of Reynolds) in those two years. I think you're suggesting about an equal increment of offensive value for each of them, compared to their positional peers, based on your post a couple back, unless you've "moved off" of that too. So I'm not seeing a big "inflation" of value for the catcher that you alluded to earlier; two similar guys in some ways, with a 16% discount for fewer starts at their respective prime positions. I'm only guessing as to what your question is, at this point, though.

Not less games. More games. Probably twice as many. You're overlooking the 3 years of team control for Murphy versus 1 year if you trade for Ohtani. 3x100 versus 150ish. If you trade prospect assets for Murphy, you have starting Catcher covered for 3 years. If you trade those assets for Ohtani then DH is covered but you need to work some kind of similar magic in years 2 and 3 only without those assets this time. Ohtani would be the "all-in for 2023" trade. Comparable in trade value, but not comparable in the purpose. We're not acquiring either, so it's really pretty moot.

On further thought I don't see a team going for it, either. Let's say Correa is the Twins' preferred option. This arrangement leaves them in limbo for longer, and if Correa does eventually move on, it may be that the second and third option have already signed or been traded too. The return they get in trade may not be that high, since the acquiring team is a "sole source" and the Twins would have little leverage in negotiation; and if no trade happens, Correa is disgruntled all year. Look at it from the perspective of this mystery "other" team too. Do they go after Correa for, say, $200M plus having to give up something in trade? Or do they just simplify and sign Bogaerts or Turner for a similar sum and save themselves the prospect capital? This comes out as a lose-lose option.

I don't disagree with any of the points here. And it was fine to use Ohtani as a parallel to Murphy, because both would cost an arm and a leg. Shortstop Cruz, ditto. I was pushing back on the notion that Murphy was an overpay versus Ohtani. 3 years versus 1, up-the-middle versus DH when he bats - just not a useful comp. (Ohtani as a pitcher makes him a unicorn for comparison purposes anyway.) Ohtani in 2022 would have improved our DH production somewhere around .100 OPS points compared to Arraez/Buxton/Miranda (Sanchez is just a brain fart in that role that I'm not even going to consider him). Murphy would have improved our catcher OPS by more than that, albeit for fewer games. You improve overall team OPS any way you can. Comparing Murphy's bat to an outfielder's is just not relevant; he would have improved our team OPS, pure and simple. Anyway, I'd love to have Murphy catching or Ohtani pitching and DHing, and it's not gonna happen, so there we are.

My guess is that it comes down to technicalities that the Players Association might not look kindly upon. If Correa doesn't opt out by the specified date, he is obligated to play for the Twins in 2023 for the stated salary. The Twins verbally saying they will let him negotiate and then work out a sign-and-trade is just that, a verbal commitment, and might not be enforceable. I'm personally a stickler for having things in writing, and the paperwork I've ever signed is dwarfed in magnitude by the dollars being discussed here, so I can fully understand if Correa tells the team, "nice idea, but I can't go along, because while I trust you it sets a dangerous precedent for other players." Which might be a polite way of saying, "I can't trust this proposed process myself."

Salami, huh? I don't believe it. Sounds like a lot of baloney to me.

Good plan, until those other teams rebrand.

A reason the trade values site is so believable is that the valuations take into account the number of years of team control, and the cost of the remaining salary commitment. These are things a real GM has to consider too. If you trade for Ohtani, you pay $30M* for 2023, and then after that he leaves. If you trade for Murphy, you have him for 3 years at arbitration prices, which will likely total less than Ohtani's 1 year. 1 year of a superstar versus 3 years of a better than average player at a key position. Strictly player versus player for one year you'd take Ohtani and so would I, but factoring in all the roster and salary considerations makes it a considerably closer decision... which the trade value you quoted seems to reflect. Having Murphy's .759 OPS in 2022 means not having Sanchez's .659 for part of the season, and/or Jeffers's .648. Let's don't even think about Sandy Leon. A hundred points of OPS, when the glove is good, is pretty big. We're on the same page, though, that the Twins aren't trading productively for either of these gentlemen unless they get awfully creative. *I'm going from baseball-reference.com, on this

The word 'or' makes me reflexively want to say Yes, but the word 'thinking' leaves me confused.

You mean to say, actually redefining the brand meaningfully. Yeah, nah.

A nothing burger, to me. This can't be the most important part of the rebrand.

Pretty inaccurate view you were given. Derek Falvey pitched in college ball. Thad Levine played college ball. Rocco Baldelli skipped college ball but went on to finish third in the AL Rookie of the Year. I don't know who else your coach friend has in mind that runs the team, or what axe he feels the need to grind. I have my complaints about the FO but the stereotype of guys with thick glasses at the computer screen, incapable of understanding what athletes do from personal experience, is far off the mark.

If Oakland wants some of our can't-miss-bat busts (Sabato, etc) and one of the 99 middle infielders we drafted #3 and below in 2022, go for it. That probably won't get the job done, and if the conversation starts and ends with Brooks Lee and/or legitimate pitching prospects then I don't see it happening.

Turning double plays doesn't correlate strongly with winning. Just look at the list. Not just a one-year fluke either. That site offers stats going back to 2007; the top DP team that year finished dead last in the NL. I wouldn't put Jeffers or Miranda or Larnach at SS, but it could be that anyone reasonably competent to turn grounders into outs on a reliable basis is good enough, and the main thing you want in this day and age is the bat.