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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    One started by JB_Iowa and another started by amjgt, a couple days apart, on the same topic.
  2. ashbury
    The injuries make him a long shot by now, but you gotta admire the stick-to-it-iveness.
  3. ashbury
    Moderator's note: I infer a sense of satire here, but let's be careful please.
  4. ashbury
    Moderator's note: I have moved and merged two similar threads into this one here. As you were, carry on, etc.
  5. ashbury
    It removes the incentive to bring in wave after wave of relievers. "Why should I bring someone else in? The fences are so close, it'll just be the same." / When I first moved to Nevada I went to a Reno Chukars independent league game. The score was something like 7-5 in the fifth inning, and both starters were still pitching despite having given up some homers. The above logic, thin air moreso than close fences, seemed to hold sway with both managers that evening.
  6. ashbury
    Welcome Penthang! Hope you keep contributing to the community here.
  7. ashbury
    Yeah, the Hit tool is probably the one indispensable tool for getting more than a cup of coffee in the majors. If the scouts aren't sold on his, that would be the explanation.
  8. ashbury
    Moderator's note: I infer a sense of satire with that last part, but let's be careful please.
  9. ashbury
    The Optimism gene?
  10. ashbury
    Good read, thanks for sharing. "That’s the challenge for families today. It’s not about the $100 bat. It’s about the $100-a-night motel room and the $30 gas money and the $300 tournament fee. There’s a huge financing gap to get a child to that next level where they might be seen. .... There’s a lot of talk about kids thinking that baseball is slow and boring, or that they’d rather sit at home and play video games. Maybe there’s some truth to that, but to me, there is a deeper problem going on that is affecting low-income kids of all races."
  11. ashbury
    I was with you, up to here. The opposite of one team's fans' hopes may be simply other teams' fans' apathy toward them. I don't know how much of the action is by the self-styled "smart money" of professional bettors who make their living that way (or so they tell their friends), but unless it's the lion's share you are betting against the hopes of fans in bigger cities, and the bookies are there to level out the action. I do think the odds are interesting, in that there is enough smart money involved that it's not just a popularity contest. "My town is red hot, your town ain't doodly squat."
  12. ashbury
    They started him in high-A and moved him up to AA his first season (signed late in 2009, apparently). Even had a taste at AAA. The next year he started at AAA. Age 23 season. Got injured, they shut him down in July; his first 10 starts had decent results (3.60 ERA), it started to go downhill after that so his total numbers weren't good. TJ surgery. Returned pretty fast, about 12 months later, pitched some rehab-style innings, plus the AFL later. Back in AAA for age 25 season. Even guys like me who pay overly much attention to age-and-level don't believe that someone gets much better (and closer to major-league ready) simply by aging a year. They weren't aggressive about pushing him to the majors post-TJ, but pre-TJ he was on a fast track (as befits a #22 overall college draft pick), and I can't see how they can be accused of dawdling given the injury.
  13. ashbury
    I figured someone would have responded by now, but I think the typical over-under bet is essentially even money, minus the vig.
  14. ashbury
    Because they would have been better mentors for Hicks? (Getting back to the thread topic... hint hint)
  15. ashbury
    Bunch of untested rookies. 65 wins.
  16. ashbury
    I may be wrong but I expect the question to sort itself out, all by itself, by Opening Day. One pitcher isn't physically ready to go, one pitcher has a putrid spring, and boom, you have your 5-man rotation pretty much set with maybe only one semi-obvious decision remaining to make. The mid-February discussion is interesting but I have trouble getting heavily invested in it.
  17. ashbury
    I've never met you but I love you, Madre Dos.
  18. ashbury
    Molitor's just keeping the seat on the bench warm for Torii.
  19. ashbury
    I am not givin' back my prize, if that is what you are hintin' at. / and I am not disputin' Chief's actual point
  20. ashbury
    Not a deal breaker, but when you move a player down the defensive spectrum, it means he's now competing for a job with players who are there more for their bat. Guys who can track a ball in the outfield, say, but lack the elite speed/vision/arm to play CF. Better defense in LF may play a small role in roster decisions, but not like it would have in CF. I don't think anyone is saying Rosario should change his batting approach if he's in LF; he should do whatever works best. But his batting skills may not be elite enough, compared to other options of players for that same position. And power will be one of the big difference makers. That's the sense I take such statements as "That means he’ll have to show he can hit for power." Not so much he should change, but can he do it? As for table setters for the power hitters who follow, I'll be happy to see the team solve that problem once it proves to be one.
  21. ashbury
    Sure hope that's not the case with Meyer. Indeed Meyer's being closer to the majors makes it harder to rank them, because perceived ceiling might not be the same as trade value, might not be the same as floor, might not... you see what I mean. I rank them for ceiling as Stewart, Berrios then Meyer. But that's colored a bit by the view that a #1 type often reaches the majors by an early age, and Meyer has passed that age threshold already. But it doesn't mean he can't or won't be really good. And by trade value, Meyer might be highest, depending on the trade partner and their wish for a MLB-ready starter.
  22. ashbury
    What I find interesting is that the Forbes survey of MLB team finances shows the Twins and Padres pretty closely matched for franchise value and annual revenue and profit. If they can do it, I'm hoping an off-season soon for the Twins will be like this, when the core has arrived.
  23. ashbury
    They should put that play on more often. I kind of like it. Catch the pitcher napping. As for the topic, I do want to cut out the reciprocal problems of batters stepping out constantly, and pitchers standing there so long the batter eventually calls time. But I also hate to think of some batter getting hurt by an inside pitch when he got something in his eye but couldn't step out to fix it and instead tried to tough it out. I selectively recall Mauer stepping out and doing the winky-blinky thing a lot, for example, and I don't think he's a guy who just messes around on the job.
  24. ashbury
    Contracts are forward looking documents, so past performance is interesting but irrelevant once negotiations begin. Well, if he's a guy you really really want to sign (as was the case with Mauer), there's some give and take in recognition of contributions so far. But, baseball's a business, and everyone in the business understands that young players are underpaid and you hit pay dirt several years in, and the pay dirt reflects estimated contributions going forward. The sums relevant to this discussion start at year 2010, IMO. Of course, left out of Fangraphs' dollar values are side issues like concession sales (jerseys with the name on the back) and butts-in-seats.
  25. ashbury
    bb-ref's main page shows it a little above that now, a $107.5M estimate.
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