Hans Birkeland

After winning two games in which the Twins exposed the White Sox for the trainwreck that they are, the Sox reminded the Twins and Pablo López that they still have a few good hitters, rocking the Twins righty for five first inning runs. Touki Toussaint was much more in control than he usually is and the Twins never recovered, despite some scintillating rallies late. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Pablo López: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (85 Pitches, 62 Strikes, 73%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: López (-.335), Willi Castro (-.270), Max Kepler (-.158) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): After consecutive 10-2 trouncings of the dysfunctional White Sox, the Twins turned to one of their aces in Pablo López as they looked to continue their September roll. With a good start, López could have strengthened his burgeoning case for the AL Cy-Young. The White Sox had other ideas. The evening started out well. Facing one of the worst right-handed pitchers in baseball, Touki Toussaint, Edouard Julien laced a double to the right-center field gap and scored on a sharp single from (who else) Royce Lewis. Toussaint limited the damage, though, and López began his night with a one run lead. That lead was short lived. Lewis made an ill-advised throw on Tim Anderson's leadoff swinging bunt, throwing wildly and allowing Anderson to reach second. After Andrew Benintendi struck out, Eloy Jimenez unloaded on a center cut fastball to make the score 2-1. Unlike his last start against the Mets, when López had pinpoint command of his breaking pitches en route to eight shutout innings, he left a few up to the White Sox. After two more singles, Gavin Sheets crushed a low curveball for a three-run homer and a 5-1 Chicago lead. After the Twins went down 1-2-3 against Toussaint in the second, the White Sox went right back to work, or so it appeared. Backup catcher Carlos Perez and Anderson led off with consecutive singles before López struck out Benintendi and Luis Robert for the second time each. He then got Jimenez on a nice sweeper to end the frame. Toussaint showed why he comes with the pedigree of a former first round draft pick despite his career-long (5.43 ERA, 14.3% walk rate) struggles. He relied on an effective changeup and curveball located on both low corners for strikes and uncomfortable swings. The Twins were likely expecting control problems from the righty, and instead saw a slew of offspeed pitches for strikes that left them behind in the count. Toussaint struck out six Twins in the first three innings. He was pitching on three days rest after being obliterated by the Royals his last time out, so perhaps that bodes well for him to continue his career as a reliever. His final line was five innings, one run and eight strikeouts. For López's part, he at least held the score where it was, firing four scoreless innings after his adventurous first. His eight strikeouts leave him one K short of league leader Kevin Gausman. Immediately following Toussaint's departure, the Twins put a threat together against struggling lefty Aaron Bummer. They loaded the bases on an infield single, a chopper over the first baseman, and a walk, bringing up the suddenly hot-hitting Kyle Farmer as the tying run. He came about an inch from clearing the bases on a foul liner, but eventually struck out looking on a dotted fastball from Bummer. Josh Winder relieved López and after a strong sixth inning, gave up some hard contact in the seventh, allowing two more runs to score. The Twins made some noise in the eighth against Gregory Santos and his 101 MPH sinker. Polanco and Lewis walked, Kepler and Correa singled, and Kyle Farmer grounded into a fielders choice to score three runs and make the Chicago faithful a little queasy. Matt Wallner then hit a chopper to first baseman Andrew Vaughn, who fumbled the ball and allowed Wallner to reach, scoring the Twins' fifth run. Curiously, Christian Vázquez was not pinch-hit for as the tying run. He popped out weakly while Ryan Jeffers (and Andrew Stevenson and Jordan Luplow) looked on. The Twins rallied again in the ninth, down two runs. Polanco singled with one out, and Lewis added one of his own. Lefty Tanner Banks was brought in to face Kepler, who struck out looking after running the count full. Correa and Farmer walked, bringing up Willi Castro who popped out to end the game. The good: -Matt Wallner's at-bats have looked a lot better. His walk against Bryan Shaw in the seventh gave the Twins some life, and came after he fell behind 0-2. -Jhoan Duran pitched a quick 1-2-3 eighth inning. He's rested a lot lately, to good effect. -Lewis had another three hits. Ho hum. The bad: -López was ambushed by Sheets, giving up his homer on a curveball down in the zone, but the homer he allowed to Jimenez came on the sort of fastball he can't throw in the playoffs, middle-middle. López was good for the final four innings, however. -Lewis made two bad throws in the first inning. Both he could have held onto, as neither batter was going to be retired. Lewis has been okay at third base, but it appears that isn't his long-term home; shorter throws seem to suit him better, and it may be Brooks Lee who profiles as the third baseman of the future. -A first half issue reared its ugly head in that the lineup did not appear able to adjust to their initial game plan against Toussaint. They wanted to work counts and get mistakes, but Toussaint refused to make them. You know what you're getting from Gausman, Jon Gray and Luis Castillo, three starters the Twins might face in game one of their upcoming playoff series, so there's that, at least. What’s Next: Sonny Gray (7-7, 2.96 ERA) tries to win the series opposing Sox ace Dylan Cease (7-7 4.87 ERA). Gray has been good and has an outside shot at the Cy Young award, while Cease has struggled all year despite retaining elite raw stuff. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Varland 31 0 0 29 0 60 Winder 0 0 14 0 25 39 Jax 0 16 0 16 0 32 Pagán 0 29 0 0 0 29 Thielbar 11 17 0 0 0 28 Durán 10 0 0 0 9 19 Funderburk 0 0 0 16 0 16 Floro 0 13 0 0 0 13 View full article

Agreed. Just like I hated Dobnak and Stashak being left to rot against the Yankees, I would hate to end up seeing Luplow or Vazquez in the 9th down a run because Rocco "went for it" in the 5th inning.

Exactly. Turn 5 of Griffin Jax's 10 losses and turn them into wins (making the record 81-65) and the fanbase would be buzzing.

After last year when they lost to the Guardians in the ALWC, I would imagine Tampa is very focused on beating out Baltimore to attain a first round bye. For example, they are starting Yandy Diaz today even after his, um, incident last night.

The 2023 Twins may not accumulate the type of win total that really get fanbases fired up, but taken for the sum of their parts, they represent the best chance for a Twins playoff run in arguably decades. If you're a casual fan who's been waiting for the Twins bandwagon to be worth joining, here's your chance. Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Casual fans are the lifeblood of this country. They don't take things too personally, they don't experience the highs and lows obsessive fans do, and they generally have richer, fuller lives. The ultra-fans of musicians, politicians, celebrities, and sports teams are a pestilence whose maniacal need to defend their chosen cultural obsession is tired at this point. I am part of that pestilence, with my obsessive fandom revolving around the Minnesota Twins. I'm a native Minnesotan and something in my neurodivergent brain was drawn to baseball- the rest is history. I live and die on every pitch, which is at least better than living and dying on every tweet from and about some celebrity (I might be fooling myself). The casual fan is beset with fandom requests- they don't care and continue making genuine contributions to society. They should be commended for their restraint and perspective. But they'll like this Twins team. Casual fans will watch a crucial September game if it fits their schedule. And they love playoff runs. The critical games in September are hopefully over with Cleveland repeatedly tripping over themselves, but a playoff run should be the expectation for this team. The Twins are hitting well as a group right now. Edouard Julien has been a revelation as a leadoff hitter, with the league's best chase percentage. Max Kepler has reemerged, this time as the primary cleanup hitter. He's been one of baseball's top five right fielders since July, after a brutal start that left many fans and analysts calling for him to be cut loose from the team (not this one). Jorge Polanco has returned from several injuries to be a pest with power from both sides of the plate. He's been perpetually underrated as an unassuming star for several years now. Carlos Correa is starting to pick it up despite ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis, still plays a good shortstop, and has hit the seventh most home runs (18) in postseason history, tied with Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle. Ryan Jeffers has cooled off a bit but still ranks first among catchers in OPS. He hasn't played as much as the elite two-way catchers (of which there are maybe three), but factoring in his above-average defense and game-calling, Jeffers has a claim as one of the most valuable Twins (he does have the highest bWAR among Twins hitters). Matt Wallner is going through a rough patch right now, but his numbers are still decent overall, and he does possess what the old-school scouts call light tower power. When he connects, the ball is gone. Alex Kirilloff is back and has looked good thus far, with some hard balls hit to left-center. When on his game, Kirilloff offers power to all fields, excellent plate coverage, and, new this year, a keen batting eye. He gives me toned-down Mark Teixiera vibes. His health is always a question, but he can usually go a month before something breaks down, so he's lined up pretty well to at least get to October. Michael A. Taylor is a great guy to root for, given his personality and charitable work on rare diseases. He also plays excellent center field defense and hits home runs! Willi Castro plays everywhere, gets clutch hits, and steals bases! The guy we traded Luis Arraez for, Pablo López, has been really good, bordering on Cy-Young contending while nearly pacing the league in strikeouts (the most for a Twins pitching season since Johan Santana). After he got back in gear in August, Sonny Gray has been even better. He represents, along with López, the best one-two punch the Twins have thrown out for a playoff series since Jack Morris and Scott Erickson. The closer, Jhoan Duran, is brilliant. He throws the fastest fastball in all of baseball, which isn't even his best pitch. That would be his curveball, one of the best pitches in baseball (when he's commanding it). The bullpen is full of guys who throw 98 MPH and expect reinforcements while already adding Louie Varland, the St. Paul kid who has thrown 100 MPH since converting to relief work. Then there's Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who have pitched like top-of-the-rotation starters at different points this year. I have yet to get to the most important hitter for the Twins this year, 35-year-old journeyman infielder Donovan Solano. Line drive after line drive off his bat has found outfield grass at crucial times this season, and his soft triple to center last week may have ended Cleveland's season. And yes, Byron Buxton is injured. He is trying to rehab to the point that he can play center field by the end of September, but it's anyone's guess when and if he'll be available. It would be great fun if he could contribute something, even just a base hit, this October. In short, there are a lot of hitters on this club who all do different things, supporting one of the better pitching staffs in recent memory. Key to it all will be Royce Lewis, who sports the charisma and clutch hitting that evokes memories of the one and only Kirby Puckett. He could go 0-75 down the stretch and still be seen as a threat every time he steps in with the game on the line. Home runs or fought-off sliders the other way, whatever you need, Lewis has it. There are reinforcements in the event of an ill-timed injury, too. Brooks Lee is among the top 20 prospects in baseball, a line drive machine drafted eighth overall just last year. Austin Martin had such a ranking at one point, too, and looks healthy again as a speedy on-base machine who sprays singles and doubles all over the park. Chris Paddack has been an excellent major league pitcher around his injuries and will join the team in a couple of weeks following a second Tommy John surgery. The team played poorly in the first half, and that will put a cap on their overall record when the year is done. But they have looked like a contender since the All-Star break, with the old core of players (Kepler, Polanco) blending into the new core (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Duran). They proved they had enough left-handed bats to cover the loss of Arraez, and with the addition of López, the starting staff is capable of holding down a seasoned and skilled October lineup- they even lead the league in pitcher strikeouts (although it should be noted that they also lead in hitting strikeouts). This will be an 85-win team, but that's different from who they are, especially in a short series. This is the best chance the Twins have had to win a playoff game since at least 2010, maybe even 2002. Teams respond well to removing monkeys from their backs; just ask the post-2004 Boston Red Sox, or last year's Mariners. The first game of the AL Wild Card series is October 3rd. All aboard. View full article

Trying to maintain momentum after a big series win in Cleveland and a strong showing in Friday's series opener against the Mets, the Twins scratched a few runs across early and bludgeoned the Mets' bullpen late. Kenta Maeda was strong over 5 1/3 innings as the Twins clinched a series win against a talented, albeit underperforming, team. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Kenta Maeda: 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (83 Pitches, 55 Strikes, 66%) Home Runs: Willi Castro (6) Top 3 WPA: Donovan Solano (.196), Max Kepler (.163), Kyle Farmer (.143), Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): After an impressive comeback win Friday night against the bumbling Mets and their league-leading payroll, the Twins faced a deficit almost immediately on Saturday. Brandon Nimmo led the game off with an opposite field home run off a splitter from Kenta Maeda, and after a single and steal from the scrappy Jeff McNeil, Daniel "Burgers" Vogelbach drove him home with a sharp single up the middle. The Twins mounted an immediate threat to counter, or so it seemed. After Solano was hit by a pitch leading off, Jorge Polanco singled to set the stage for Royce Lewis. Unfortunately for the Twins, sixth starter extraordinaire David Peterson was able to strike out Lewis, Carlos Correa and Jordan Luplow consecutively to extinguish the rally. Peterson has a jumpy fastball and used it along with a sharp slider to strike out five Twins batters the first time through the order. But the Twins were not to be deterred, starting with a hard hit single from Ryan Jeffers off a fastball with one out in the second inning. Castro followed with a blistering two-out double into the left field corner and Solano drove both home with a single to left. The inning could have really gotten out of hand if Pete Alonso didn't time his jump perfectly on a Jorge Polanco liner headed for the right field corner to record the final out. Continuing a recent trend, Maeda again struggled to spot his breaking pitches, and was fortunate on several occasions to avoid damage. His third inning, for instance, included a hit-by-pitch to Alonso while ahead in the count, a 101 MPH single from Francisco Lindor, and three warning track fly balls, resulting in zero runs. Another two-out rally followed in the Twins' half of the third. Luplow doubled down the right field line past a diving Alonso, and Farmer delivered a Guardians Special™ bloop single (70 MPH) to score the go-ahead run. Maeda continued to battle and the Mets increasingly fell into his crafty-veteran trap, trying to jump on seemingly hittable pitches early in at-bats but unable to truly get the barrel to the ball. That resulted in not only outs, but quick outs, and after five innings, Maeda had thrown only 74 pitches. After retiring Lindor to start the sixth, Maeda walked Vogelbach, which prompted Rocco Baldelli to bring in the rookie Kody Funderburk. The lefty struggled with his control but was able to retire the side with the lead intact. Meanwhile, Peterson was settling in, hitting the corners with his fastball and secondary pitches and not allowing much hard contact. Pitching for a spot in next year's rotation, the former first round pick showed why Mets fans had high hopes for him after his 125 ERA+ during his rookie campaign in 2020. A play that certainly helped Peterson's line came in his sixth and final inning. After Luplow reached on a swinging bunt single, Farmer singled to the gap, allowing Luplow to reach third with one out. Jeffers then attempted a safety squeeze bunt, a play he had executed well several times this year already. This time the ugly side of that strategy reared its head: Jeffers missed the bunt and Luplow had strayed too far off third in anticipation, allowing catcher Omar Narvaez to gun him down before he could scamper back. As they did last night, the Twins went to work as soon as the Mets bullpen got involved in the proceedings. After Castro was caught stealing following a leadoff single, Alex Kirilloff drew a pinch hit walk, Lewis singled and Correa walked. Kepler then pinch hit for Luplow, worked the count to 2-2 and fouled off a few tough pitches before demolishing a Drew Smith slider for a bases clearing triple. Farmer finished off the inning with a another bloop double to score Kepler. After a pair of solo homers against Louie Varland, Willi Castro hit the first Twins home run of the game to extend the lead back to four and allow Jhoan Duran the day off, with Dylan Floro pitching a scoreless ninth to secure the victory. Overall, seven of the Twins' runs came with two outs. The Good: Solano continues to terrorize opposing pitchers with his big two-run single; Maeda got better as the game wore on, finishing his offspeed pitches better and keeping them off the barrel of Mets hitters. He only struck out two, but this start was encouraging given the middling results he has shown lately. Kepler had been scuffling a bit (.192 batting average in September), so his big three-run triple was a welcome sight. The Bad: Matt Wallner struck out twice on the first six pitches he faced from Peterson and later grounded out weakly. The Twins have rotated which lefty hitter gets a shot against lefty starters between Wallner, Edouard Julien, Kirilloff and Kepler, and so far only Kepler has shown the ability to hold his own. Louie Varland, making his second career relief appearance after three scoreless against Cleveland, left 1-2 a changeup up to Pete Alonso, who crushed it 427 feet for his 43rd home run leading off the eighth. Varland then gave up a long home run to hot-hitting D.J Stewart on a 99 MPH fastball. Home runs were an issue for Varland as a starter (14 allowed in ten starts) so this was not a positive sign. Castro and Farmer were both caught trying to steal second in addition to Luplow's shenanigans off third base in the sixth. What’s Next: Pablo López (10-7, 3.64 ERA) takes on Tylor Megill (8-7, 5.28 ERA), younger brother of former Twins luminary Trevor Megill, as the Twins look to sweep the series against the Mets. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Varland 0 43 0 0 20 63 Thielbar 10 0 0 15 10 35 Funderburk 0 11 0 0 15 26 Jax 17 0 0 8 0 25 Pagán 12 0 0 11 0 23 Durán 0 0 0 14 0 14 Floro 0 0 0 0 11 11 Headrick 0 0 0 0 0 0 Winder 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

With the Guardians winning in extra innings against the Rays, the pressure was on the Twins to hold off a struggling but talented Rangers team. Things started rough with Dallas Keuchel unable to get through four innings, but the offense, led by Donovan Solano, clawed back and eventually prevailed against Aroldis Chapman in the tenth. Image courtesy of © Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel: 3 1/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (57 Pitches, 35 Strikes, 61.4%) Home Runs: Donovan Solano (5), Top 3 WPA: Solano (.259), Jorge Polanco (.249), Michael A. Taylor (.199) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Coming off a much-needed win in game one of the series (in which Max Scherzer was dominant), the Twins turned to Dallas Keuchel in game two. On the surface, it looked like a mismatch, as the Rangers were starting Jordan Montgomery, who completely stifled the Twins in Minnesota for five innings only to have his outing ruined by the first of Royce Lewis's grand slams (off reliever Chris Stratton) that week. The lefty Montgomery pitched out of trouble in the first after Solano and Jorge Polanco led the game with singles. He got Lewis to ground into a double play and Carlos Correa to bounce out to end the threat. Keuchel was not so lucky. After allowing a sharp leadoff double to Marcus Semien, he retired the dangerous Corey Seager and hit-machine Nathaniel Lowe on grounders to bring up Adolis Garcia. Behind in the count, Garcia got a backdoor cutter from Keuchel and punished the mistake into the left field stands for the game's first two runs. That cutter was 85 MPH with an inch of horizontal break. History repeated itself in the second. After allowing a near-home run (reviewed by the umpires) to Robbie Grossman, Keuchel got Ezequiel Duran to pop out weakly. But Sam Huff, a catcher just called up with rosters expanding and operating as the DH, crushed a first-pitch cutter 430 feet for another two-run home run. The Twins started to chip away in the third, with Solano crushing a two-out home run to get the Twins on the board. They added on in a big fourth inning. After two quick outs, Jordan Luplow blooped a single to center, and Kyle Farmer walked. Fooled on a two-strike changeup, Ryan Jeffers poked a single through the five-hole to score a run. Matt Wallner fell behind in the count but worked a walk to load the bases. Michael A. Taylor drove a sharp single to tie the game at four, taking second on the throw, and Solano smacked his third hit of the game, a single, to make the game 6-4 and knocking Montgomery from the game. Playing with a sore hamstring, Taylor looked pretty hobbled scoring on the play and was removed afterward. It was an impressive rally, as Montgomery is not only a lefty but a quality one (115 career ERA+ over 135 games, 134 starts) who had been given a four-run lead. He also did not strike out a single Twins batter. After a quick third inning, Keuchel couldn't make it through the fourth, allowing a walk and a hit before being lifted for Dylan Floro, who allowed one of the runners to score. His sinker looked okay, but he threw 18 cutter/sliders, two of which were socked for home runs. Command of that pitch will be critical for him going forward. The bullpens were lock-down through the middle innings. On the Twins side, Kody Funderburk and Josh Winder needed only 15 pitches to navigate through the fifth and sixth innings. The Rangers got scoreless innings from Chris Stratton, Martin Perez, Jose Leclerc, and Will Smith. Emilio Pagan had a rough eighth inning, walking three before settling down to retire the next three batters. However, one of those batters was Robbie Grossman, and his sacrifice fly made it a 6-6 game. After Brent Headrick pitched a 1-2-3 ninth against the top of the Rangers' order, the game went to extra innings. Jorge Polanco advanced to third with no outs on a wild pitch when facing Aroldis Chapman. Carlos Correa and Max Kepler hit solid singles to make it an 8-6 game, ending Chapman's night. Ryan Jeffers then added a sacrifice fly for the final Twins ru Jhoan Duran got the tenth and began his outing with a 3-2 102 MPH fastball that struck out Lowe. After a short flyout from Garcia, Jonah Heim fought off a high fastball for a single, and Grossman added his third hit of the game, a deflection off of Duran's glove. Duran then buckled pinch-hitter Josh Smith with a beautiful 1-2 curveball to end the game. The good: Solano was unconscious, hitting four rockets for hits and ending up with three RBI. He also made a potentially game-saving over-the-shoulder catch in the eighth; Funderburk, Winder, Jax, and Thielbar were solid in protecting a one-run lead; Correa hit the ball hard with two sharp singles. Three of his batted balls were clocked over 102 MPH. The bad: Keuchel was roughed up, leaving numerous cutters up in the zone. He wasn't quite as bad as his line suggests, but regardless, he put the team in a deep hole and was fortunate the offense bailed him out; Royce Lewis swung early and often, grounding into a rally-killing double play in the first, then two lazy fly balls and a strikeout, before walking in the tenth. His average is now below .300. Emilio Pagan walked the first three batters he faced, pitching with a one-run lead in the eighth. He did retire the next three batters but allowed the game-tying sacrifice fly to Grossman. What's Next: Kenta Maeda (3-7, 4.69 ERA) goes against Jon Gray (8-7, 3.79 ERA) as the Twins look to complete the series sweep in Arlington. Maeda struggled his last time out against the Guardians, giving up six runs over four innings and escaping with a no-decision thanks to Royce Lewis's second grand slam of the week. Gray has been decent but has allowed eight runs over his last two starts, spanning ten innings. Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Durán 0 20 0 9 21 50 Pagán 14 0 0 0 24 38 Thielbar 0 16 0 8 6 30 Jax 0 8 0 11 7 26 Sands 24 0 0 0 0 24 Funderburk 0 8 0 0 9 17 Headrick 0 0 0 0 15 15 Floro 0 0 0 0 8 8 Winder 0 0 0 0 6 6 View full article

True, there isn't much to unlock beyond getting Gallo and Luplow off the roster, but I look at the Twins like an NFL team with an elite quarterback and some decent players around him. The Orioles are like the a team with a total game manager QB and a slightly better team around him. Both teams can win a playoff game or two but I wouldn't buy stock in the second team. If I was a betting man I'd go with the Astros for the pennant but the Twins wouldn't have to get too lucky to beat anyone else in a short series.

Game 1: Kyle Bradish versus Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Tyler Glasnow, Game 2: Kyle Gibson (maybe Dean Kremer) versus Pablo Lopez, Jose Berrios, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Jon Gray, Zach Eflin They're running on vibes and I'm not buyin.

Subjective, but: I made the case that the Twins are relying on players not playing above their talent level. The way the Twins have won recently is certainly not a formula (comeback against Rangers, blowout against Rangers, and comeback 13 inning win against Rangers, comeback from 4-0 against Guardians) None of our prospects are post hype (maybe Kirilloff), our bullpen isn't great but it is a high strikeout bullpen, which was my point (you can disagree with the point) And we have done pretty okay against good pitching, we just hung 6 on Corbin Burnes, although Scherzer did get us pretty good. Dunning was having a great year before we got to him.

Randy Dobnak ain't pitching game two.

Fair point, I considered making that caveat. The 2014-15 Royals are the exception, although their competition was not exactly elite. They beat the A's who never win in October, the Angels, who are cursed beyond recognition, the Orioles who were starting Chris Tillman in game one, Bud Norris in game two and Wei-Yin Chen in game three, and then got beaten by the Giants. The next year they beat the Astros before they were the ASTROS and barely did that. The Blue Jays, who they beat in the ALCS that year, were really good, but the Mets were pretty cute.

A lotta power, an ace in Viola, and a completely decimated Cardinals lineup. Cute could win back then.

Baseball postseason history is littered with cute teams with good stories who fold in the playoffs, including many Twins teams of the past 20 years. This year's team isn't great, but unlike the AL leading Orioles, they at least aren't cute. Image courtesy of Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports MLB Network's Matt Vasgersian reflected upon the Twins’ recent excruciating win over Texas with the following statement: “Those are the kind of wins that make you feel like a team of destiny.” That statement made me a little nauseous. Let me be clear, this is not a team of destiny, and anyone who watches their games will agree. Not only have they not played to that level, but also I look at that branding as a negative. Generally, teams that are proclaimed as such are nothing more than what I call "cute stories," a baseball trope I have been following for years. The teams that represent the cutest stories never advance past the Divisional Series. I think there is something to that. Let me explain. First, let's establish what constitutes a “cute story” type of team: The easiest to define criteria is that they play above their talent level. They may have stars or even superstars but, in broad strokes, their run differential won’t be great and they end up with 89-93 wins, give or take. Think about the 2022 Guardians, 2021 White Sox, 2016 Rangers, 2013 Pirates, 2010 Braves or the 2003, 2009, and 2017 Twins. If you are using the phrase "pure magic" to describe a team eliminated in the Divisional Series, you may be talking about a cute story. Next, they rely on a “formula” to win games. This might involve a post-hype prospect the league hasn’t adjusted to (think Jose Tabata or Kevin Newman types) getting on base and getting driven in by a waiver claim slugger having a career year hitting a high volume of mistake pitches (think Mike Ford or Jesus Aguilar). The starter (often with a below average strikeout rate) keeps them in the game and turns it over to a (usually) strong bullpen without great peripheral numbers. Their closer then comes in, only when there is a lead, and nails down the win. We’ve seen this. It doesn’t work. In the playoffs every tendency is broken down and weaknesses are exploited. The post-hype prospect goes 1-for-12 with an infield hit (and gets thrown out trying to steal following the hit), and the waiver claim slugger strikes out 15 times because they have huge holes in their swing and struggle against elite pitching. If they somehow have a lead, the closer riles up the crowd and throws their signature pitch... except it's rocked for a first pitch home run or double. Then they start to nibble, walk some guys (“they don’t usually do this!” says the broadcast) and before you know it, a rally has started. The problem with cute story teams is that there is generally a lack of substance to their success beyond just raw run differential. They thrive off of good vibes, rags-to-riches narratives and general "underdoggery." The 2003 Twins were saved by Shannon Stewart and rode a hot second half to a playoff berth, despite a rotation that consisted of five guys whose best ERA+ was 101. Thankfully, Johan Santana was allowed to step in and front the rotation, but when the playoffs rolled around Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse were no match for the Yankees’ number two and three starters (Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, respectively). Doug Mientkiewicz went 2-for-15. Luis Rivas went 0-for-13. Christian Guzman went 2-for-13. Jacque Jones, who was known to struggle against lefties, was left to die against Pettitte. These were not competitive answers to what the Yankees were throwing at the Twins. It stems, I think, from expecting success based on the numbers their players have accumulated during their nice little run in the regular season. As human beings, the team wants to “reward” them for their success, even if logically they had no business featuring prominently in a playoff roster. For example, Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy had good numbers for the 2003 Twins, but they were still Doug Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy. Brian Duensing had a great stretch run for the 2009 Twins, but he was still Brian Duensing. Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon both had good years as closers on playoff teams, but they were who they were. Now let’s take a look at the 2023 Twins. Compared to cute teams of the past, they look pretty good. All of their contributors are having either a down year (Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco) or are performing pretty in line with what they’ve done before (Donovan Solano, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Jhoan Duran). The only players playing above their previous norms, and it is debatable, are Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor and Ryan Jeffers. It isn’t exactly clear why Kepler is suddenly an offensive force, but Jeffers was projected as a plus offensive catcher and has shown plenty of flashes in the past. The rotation is indisputably solid and playoff caliber, ranking first in Fangraphs’ metric for rotation quality. The offense is powered by a trio of rookies in Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Although their success couldn’t have necessarily been predicted, no one should be surprised based on their track record as prospects. Alex Kirilloff appears close to a rehab assignment. That could give him plenty of time to get his timing back before October. Byron Buxton will attempt to play center field upon his return which may be around the same time. Take a look at their projected lineup against a right-hander in the playoffs if both of those scenarios come to fruition: Edouard Julien DH Jorge Polanco 2B Carlos Correa SS Byron Buxton CF Alex Kirilloff 1B Royce Lewis 3B Max Kepler RF Matt Wallner LF Ryan Jeffers C This configuration is a lot of things, but it isn’t cute. The two highly-paid stars, Buxton and Correa, might be its weakest links. Now, some of those guys will go cold in the next month or so, and it's fairly likely that one or two will get hurt. However, Donovan Solano is a good fallback option, and in most years Austin Martin would be a potential late-season sparkplug. Now compare that to the Baltimore Orioles, my favorite for this year’s cutest team. Think about who starts Game 1 of a playoff series for them. It’s probably Kyle Bradish, who is having a nice year, but doesn’t have an overwhelming strikeout percentage and has never been a Top 100 prospect. He also has no real track record of success and is fast approaching his career high of 145 1/3 innings pitched. Their next choice is Kyle Gibson and his 85 ERA+. Twins fans are familiar with his work. Their third choice is probably Grayson Rodriguez, who was a Top 5 global prospect going into the year and has tons of potential, but has pitched to a 5.38 ERA over 17 starts. They have a decent crop of above average hitters, but none are superstars, even if Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman certainly have that projection. Their offense has been carried at points by Ryan O’Hearn, who they picked up off waivers with a career 83 OPS+ prior to this year. And their dominant closer, Felix Bautista, is now out with a damaged UCL, leaving former Twin Yennier Cano to close out tight games in a pennant race. He’s been good, but his strikeout rate is below average (23.9%) and he is unproven. I like their chances for the next five years, but this year they are too cute by half. The nice thing for the Orioles is that they will likely get a first round bye, but in terms of who wins more playoff games, I would take the Twins getting one over the Orioles (or any other cute teams, I’m looking at you Diamondbacks) getting any. What do you think? Would you rather take a talented team that under-performs, or a nice little story? Sound off in the comments! View full article

The Rays have an impressive record, and have been considered World Series contenders at points during the year. Injuries (particularly to two frontline lefty starters) and a franchise-altering scandal have changed that calculus. They may now present the best matchup for the Twins come October. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports The playoffs are around the corner, and the Twins will likely be a part of the field. Their options as far as opponents (the six-seeded wild card team) are pretty scary: The dynamic Blue Jays offense with Kevin Gausman fronting their rotation; The Julio Rodriguez-led Mariners with Luis Castillo and George Kirby leading theirs; and lastly, the defending champion Astros with newly acquired Justin Verlander. I'm not too fond of the Twins' chances in any of those matchups, even if all we're looking for is one win to break the horrible playoff futility streak. One matchup I like, which is more likely than you think, is the Rays. Early in the season, the Rays looked unstoppable. They had a powerful and multi-faceted offense led by Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz, with some highly effective platoon players putting up runs in droves, no matter the competition. They featured aggressive baserunning and elite defense around the diamond- typical Rays. Their rotation was dominant, and they waited on the return of Tyler Glasnow and later acquired Aaron Civale at the deadline amid his breakout year. The Rays always find a way to form incredibly effective, high-velocity bullpens; this year was no exception. They demolished the Twins in June, sweeping a series in St. Petersburg fairly easily. Why would the Twins want to face a team like that? Injuries. And the Wander Franco situation. The Rays have stunningly lost four frontline starting pitchers to Tommy John surgery this year (three if you omit the unestablished Shane Baz). Drew Rasmussen has posted a 135 ERA+ since the start of 2022 but succumbed to elbow surgery in May. Lefty Jeffrey Springs had a 165 ERA+ since 2022 but dropped in April. Most recently, the Rays lost ace Shane McClanahan, who had contributed a 135 ERA+ while striking out 28.4% of batters over the past two years. He's also a lefty. Glasnow is back and is dealing, but has never pitched more than 111 innings in a year due to injury (80 so far this year) and has a 5.75 postseason ERA. Civale is solid but is probably pitching above his talent level, with a 2.44 ERA and a 3.32 FIP buoyed by an unsustainably low home run rate (.5 HR allowed per nine innings). He also blew up in the ALDS last year against the Yankees, putting the Guardians in a deficit they could not overcome in the deciding game five. Zach Eflin has proven to be a shrewd pickup, having a career year with a 115 ERA+ while striking out 25% of batters. But he has battled knee injuries throughout his career and has missed time this year, exiting a start against Miami in late July. He didn't miss a start and has been solid since, but it is something Rays fans are watching closely. The Rays' starting rotation issues are so prevalent that they use former Twins reliever Zack Littell in that role. If you forgot, Littell was responsible for throwing eight pitches in the fifth inning of game one of the 2019 ALDS, with the game still in the balance, managing only one strike and taking the loss. He was cut loose after a brutal 2020 season and has bounced since. Admittedly, he has been decent for the Rays. As for the offense, well, it's still pretty good, but the Rays have lost some key pieces. Taylor Walls was a plus offensively (for a while) in addition to playing excellent defense at either short or third base, but he is down with an oblique strain, and his return is not imminent. Manuel Margot has been a staple of the Rays' attack for several years, playing great outfield defense with average or better offense. He's also a great base runner but will be out, possibly for the year, with elbow surgery. And then there is Wander Franco, the team's $182M man. He is on the restricted list due to what looks to be an alarming relationship with a minor, possibly multiple minors. We don't know all the details; frankly, I don't want to know. But his career may be over; at the least, he won't be playing for the team this year. Franco has been electric on the field when not benched for lack of effort. He has hit for a 126 OPS+ with 30 steals, 17 home runs, and elite shortstop defense, adding up to 5.5 bWAR in only 112 games. The Rays offense ran through him, and he was only getting better at age 22. Arozarena and Diaz are great players, but the former is streaky, and the latter isn't a significant power threat despite a career-high 16 home runs this year. The team was scuffling even before Franco's last game on August 12th. They have been 20-23 since the start of July but have recently taken advantage of a soft part of their schedule, winning series against the Angels, Rockies, Yankees, Tigers, and Guardians in August. They will face a sterner test in the coming weeks, going against the Red Sox and Mariners before arriving in Minnesota to meet the Twins in September. But, hold on, aren't the Rays 26 games over .500? Why would they fall to the sixth seed in the AL? The answer is no fault of their own - the Mariners are playing out of their minds right (two eight-game winning streaks so far in August) after having some World Series buzz pre-season. The Astros, currently the fifth seed, are a juggernaut, and the division-leading Rangers are too solid on both sides of the ball to take many more steps backward. The Blue Jays have picked up 5.5 games on the Rays since the start of July and look formidable, although they are more of a longshot. Only two teams must pass the Rays for Tampa to fall into the sixth seed. The wild card picture is seriously competitive now that the Mariners have arrived. It shines a light on how unfair it is that the Twins will likely get to play a 95-win team at home despite middling play all season that will give them 85 or so division-inflated wins. But that's baseball, baby. The matchup of the Rays and Twins is juicy beyond the roster attrition Tampa has experienced: Stuff-wise, no Twins pitcher can match up to Glasnow, but the pitching advantage will certainly swing toward the Twins against Civale and Eflin. The Rays have a better lineup on paper, but when you factor in that all three Rays starters are righties, the outlook looks murkier; the Twins are a playoff-caliber lineup against righties, especially if Alex Kirilloff is available. Defense and baserunning will favor the Rays, but in terms of matching up against any of the other potential playoff teams, you have to like the Twins' chances against this version of the Rays. It's not about the team you field in April, but the one you field come October. If only they had picked up a bullpen arm at the deadline. View full article

After a chippy, but fairly easy win against the Pirates on Friday night, the Twins ran into a sharp Mitch Keller on Saturday. Sonny Gray was perfect through five but ran out of gas, while Jordan Balazovic gave up a key three-run home run to Andrew McCutchen in the ninth. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray: 6 2/3 IP, 4 H 4 ER 3 BB 7 K (93 Pitches, 60 Strikes, 64.5%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Royce Lewis (-.212), Joey Gallo (-.174), Donovan Solano (-.162) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Sonny Gray has been sharp lately, both due to better command of his breaking pitches, and a concerted effort to challenge hitters more. His 2.78 FIP coming into the game led baseball, as did his rate of home runs allowed. With Gerrit Cole's blowup against the Red Sox (4 IP, 6 ER), a good outing would position Gray well in his quest for a first Cy Young award (though Pablo Lopez might have something to say about that). It sure started off well. Fresh off of blanking the hot-hitting Phillies over six innings last Sunday, Gray got right to work against the struggling Pirates' lineup in the first. He struck out Ji-Hwan Bae and Bryan Reynolds on three pitches each (featuring some devastating sweepers), then got ahead of Andrew McCutchen 0-2. With the first immaculate inning in Twins history* hanging in the balance, the veteran McCutchen spoiled the fun by flying out lazily to Max Kepler. *The Twins' broadcast mentioned that Scott Baker once threw an immaculate inning, which is not true, Baker did, however, strike out four men in one inning in 2008, which may have produced the confusion. Opposing Gray was Mitch Keller of the Pirates, a former high draft pick (from Cedar Rapids) and top prospect who had a few lean years before appearing to break out earlier this year, pitching to a 3.31 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate in the first half. He has struggled mightily since then, with a 7.71 ERA and 20% strikeout rate. The Twins added to his struggles in the first, starting with Jorge Polanco, who smacked a one-out single into right field and promptly stole second. With two outs, Kepler hit a grounder up the middle that would have been right at Pirates shortstop Liover Peguero... except the ball struck Keller in the foot and caromed into right field for a double and the game's first run. Keller recovered to strike out the streaking Royce Lewis, which would be a theme in the early innings. Keller's sinker and sweeper confounded Twins hitters and resulted in a whopping eight strikeouts through the first three innings. He finished with 12. But at that point, Gray was untouchable. Through the first five innings, he threw only 47 pitches, eliciting weak contact and confusing an inexperienced Pittsburgh lineup with his vast assortment of pitches. In the fifth, Richie Palacios appeared to break up the perfecto as well as the no-hitter, hitting a sharp grounder up the middle with second baseman Eduoard Julien shading towards first. But Julien ranged to his right, popped up off of a knee and delivered a strong throw to retire Palacios. It wasn't just an impressive play by Julien, but a legitimately impressive play, period. The Twins added some insurance in the bottom of the inning. Following a rare Joey Gallo ground ball double play, Christian Vázquez delivered an opposite field double which was then followed by a soft single by Michael A. Taylor to double the lead. After retiring his 16th straight batter of the night, Gray then induced a soft ground ball off the bat of Peguero that was fielded by Polanco at third. Polanco's throw was wide, however, and Peguero took a circuitous route to the bag, possibly interfering with first baseman Donovan Solano's glove. But the out was not recorded, and Peguero was awarded a hit, ending the possibility of any sort of history being made. A bloop hit and a walk followed, bringing up Reynolds with the bases loaded. Gray set him down on three pitches, but threw a mistake pitch to McCutchen ahead in the count, who drove a single up the middle to tie the game 2-2. Ke'Bryan Hayes then broke the tie with a sharp single to left. The Twins had a golden opportunity to bounce back in the bottom of the sixth. Following a Polanco leadoff walk, Correa and Kepler both singled, bringing up Lewis with the bases loaded. Perhaps expecting the sinker down 0-2, Lewis swung through a four-seamer a few inches outside for a crucial strikeout. That brought up Solano, who fell behind on a questionable strike one call and eventually struck out on a beautiful sweeper, bringing up Gallo with two strikes. He worked the count full, but succumbed to strike three on a fastball up in the zone, ending the threat. Keller was pretty electric, overall. The fates had more misery for the Twins in the top of the seventh. After a Jack Suwinski walk, Peguero grounded to third base. Polanco threw to second , and while Julien made his relay, Suwinski interfered by continuing to charge forward, clearly altering Julien's throwing motion. The throw was high and Solano appeared to still get his foot down before Peguero's, but this was the infamous Laz Diaz's umpire crew, and not only did they not call interference, they also called Peguero safe at first. The Twins challenged both plays, and somehow were denied on both counts. You don't have to watch a lot of baseball to know that Bae then doubled home Peguero to extend the lead to 4-2. The Good: Vázquez had two doubles, after entering the game with 12 extra base hits all season; Correa got on base twice more, with a sharp single and a walk. He came into the game with a 1.149 OPS over his previous ten games; The Bad: Gray fell into some of his old habits by walking three men, all in crucial spots late in his outing; Lewis had a series of bad at-bats, including his bases loaded strikeout. He later swung wildly at what would have been ball four inside, resulting in a strike out to lead off the eighth inning. Balazovic had a tough outing, giving up three hits, three runs and three walks without recording a strikeout. The smoke and mirrors success he had early on has not proven sustainable, and McCutchen's home run off of him sealed the loss tonight. What’s Next: Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 9.45 ERA) goes for the series win against Osvaldo Bido (2-3, 5.05 ERA). Keuchel is on thin ice, having not struck out a batter over his first two outings, while Joe Ryan had a successful rehab outing on Friday. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Balazovic 0 18 0 0 36 54 Floro 14 6 0 0 27 47 Jax 0 33 0 11 0 44 Pagán 11 15 0 11 0 37 Durán 14 0 0 17 0 31 Winder 0 28 0 0 0 28 Thielbar 9 0 0 10 0 19 Sands 0 0 0 0 8 8 View full article

You're unlikely to build an inning if it starts with the top 6-7 guys just taking huge hacks and hoping to get a mistake. That's where guys like Martin can help. It just has to be in context- if you have a team full of guys like that you end up as the Guardians. But you are right, there's a reason there aren't a lot of .380 OBP guys without power in the league. Long-term, Martin will likely have to develop 10-15 HR power to truly stick around as an impact player.

You never know how minor league numbers will translate. Certainly Pena and Stott were much bigger prospects than Williams, and their success hasn't been entirely linear since their arrival. It's probably a stretch to think Williams will contribute much, but in a small sample a streaky power bat like his could ambush pitchers more than say, Gallo, who has very little chance if a pitcher just executes their game plan against him.