Hans Birkeland

The team control is what makes them more valuable but you're right, there is more present day value with Maeda Mahle an Gray. Next year is a different story but hopefully Paddack recovers well and Ober can get established.

You said it, you gotta have a little luck. Would you say the last ace pitcher the Twins drafted and developed was Radke, Erickson or Viola?

To be fair, Chase Petty had a pretty good year for the Reds, playing the year at age 19 and holding his own against much older competition. Spencer Steer looks like he has a floor of a good utility man, and made his debut last year. Christian Encarnacion-Strand looks like he almost certainly will hit, even if he ends up a 1B/DH type. He'll likely see time at the MLB level this year. Steven Hajjar was a second round pick in 2021 who has looked great thus far. He hurt his shoulder after the trade, however. Brusdar Graterol is a quality reliever at minimum. That's three MLB players and two young pitchers with upside and decent prospect pedigree. Maybe not the sexiest collection of players but still extremely valuable.

Boy, If Milwaukee only wants Ober Wallner and Martin I am all in. I would imagine Lewis, Lee and Rodriguez would need to be involved to realistically get it done.

The Twins have a lot of pretty good starters, but a true No. 1 remains the missing piece in their championship puzzle. What's the most realistic method for acquiring one? Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports With Jordan Balazovic sliding down the prospect rankings due to a tough 2022 season (and now a tough start to this 2023 spring), it appears that the number of organizational Twins pitchers who could reasonably project to being a top-tier MLB starting pitcher is down to two in Marco Raya and Connor Prielipp. Both haven’t pitched a lot due to injury, with Prielipp in particular only logging seven college starts since 2019. Raya has a small build with electric stuff, so paired with his injury history, his ability to hold up for twenty-five starts is a serious question. Teams like to have a number one starter, or “ace,” but the sad truth is that there aren’t enough to go around among the 30 teams. The Twins had a taste with Kenta Maeda’s 2020 season, and arguably Phil Hughes in 2014, but otherwise have been searching since Johan Santana left in 2008. The 2023 rotation may be the deepest the team has featured since then, but it clearly lacks a top-end guy to lead the group. By my count, there are 24 starters who could currently be described as an ace or No. 1. Here they are with projected fWAR for 2023 along with how they were acquired: Drafted or signed as international free agent: Shohei Ohtani (4.3) Shane Bieber (4.2) Triston McKenzie (3.3) Corbin Burnes (5.4) Brandon Woodruff (4.2) Alek Manoah (3.3) Julio Urias (4.0) Walker Buehler (2.9*) Logan Webb (3.7) Aaron Nola (5.0) Shane McClanahan (3.5) Trade: Luis Castillo (3.9) Dylan Cease (3.7) Joe Musgrove (3.6) Zac Gallen (2.9) Max Fried (4.0) Sandy Alcantara (3.8) Free agency: Jacob deGrom (5.7) Carlos Rodon (5.0) Gerrit Cole (4.9) Kevin Gausman (3.8) Justin Verlander (4.0) Max Scherzer (4.3) Zack Wheeler (4.7) That’s 24 guys for 30 teams. Seven teams – the Brewers, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Guardians and Mets – have two each, meaning only 10 aces remain among the other 24 teams. Most were signed or drafted, but outside of Castillo who was acquired at his peak, the trades were consummated with the future ace having had little or no major league success. Here’s why that might be the best avenue for the Twins: For starters, the draft and development approach hasn’t worked out especially well. Trading for established starters (Gray, Mahle, Maeda) has hurt the farm system, and has given the team a bevy of good, but not great, starting pitchers. All three of those trades were bold, but perhaps not bold enough. What the Twins do have, is a glut of high-minors bats who could help a team as soon as this year in Austin Martin, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Ed Julien and Brooks Lee. All are decent-to-great prospects without an obvious role on the Twins, at least this year and the next. The Twins certainly hope with their newfound depth they can avoid asking all five to contribute in Minneapolis this year, meaning the team could take the reasonable gamble of dangling one or two from that player crop to seek out some high upside young pitching. It’s time for a challenge trade. The Marlins come to mind as a trade partner, as per usual. I would imagine top 10 global prospect Eury Perez would not be available, but the Fish may still listen on Edward Cabrera if one of the higher-end Twins is involved. He was once a top-50 global prospect who posted a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts last year in his age 23 season with potentially four plus pitches. He does have a lengthy injury history, however, missing time each of the last six years. A truly bold move would be to trade Lewis for Cabrera’s teammate, Max Meyer, another former top prospect recovering from Tommy John surgery this year. Meyer was the third overall pick in the 2020 draft, and is also a Minnesotan and a Gopher if that matters to you. He has a devastating slider and a fastball with some weird gyro movement a la Josh Hader. Like Lewis, he’s a difference maker if he bounces back from injury. On the other hand, betting on injured players hasn’t gone well for the Twins in recent memory. Let’s try some other names. Tanner Houck is a little more established, although it isn’t clear the Red Sox plan to use him as a starter, despite him being effective in that role, striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings with a 3.20 ERA. A former first-round pick, Houck throws a good slider (5.9 runs above average) breaking away from righties, and a quality sinker (5.3 runs above average) that breaks away from lefties. If I’m Houck, I want to go somewhere where I can start, even if it sounds like he is interested in an extension with Boston. Nevertheless, Boston could use lineup depth with upside. Mitch Keller of the Pirates took a big leap forward this past year after appearing to stall his first few years in the league, posting a sub-four ERA in 29 starts. He’s a former top prospect and had success converting to a sinker-slider pitcher last year. It’s notable that Pittsburgh also witnessed Cole and Musgrove’s careers being put in neutral before blossoming elsewhere, but its impossible to say whether Keller has another gear (or quality third offering) in him, or if he would be the Twins seventh number two/three starter. Going for Burnes either now or at the deadline wouldn’t be the worst idea, and would make the Twins a legitimate threat in the AL. However, it might cost them three of the five position players mentioned, in addition to someone on the major-league squad like Bailey Ober, and/or 2022 breakout prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez. Trading for someone less fully formed would cost a lot less of the team’s future, and could bring in someone to win that game of pitching-ace musical chairs for a longer period. It remains a dicey proposition, though. Who would you target? Or, do you hold out hope that one of the Twins’ current crop can take the leap to ace-dom? View full article

Its a good point, speaking to their over-reliance on Judge being amazing. But I'd rather have Correa, Polanco, Miranda and Kirilloff over Rizzo, Torres, LeMahieu or Stanton. Match their Volpe and Peraza with Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis. Throw in some Ed Julien. Plus we don't have to play Donaldson, Hicks and Trevino in our lineup.

The Yankees definitely live rent free in my head. It's an illness. Stanton is toast, and the eye test confirms it. His stance has gotten increasingly awkward, he's easy to pitch to, and offers nothing outside of his bat. I think its unfortunate because I really liked Stanton and he was a top five player prior to joining the Yankees, but his descent reminds of how Miguel Cabrera turned into a slap hitter the past few years. And like Cabrera, he torches any flexibility the lineup would have without him. I'm not sure Miranda is a future All-Star, but he has power and contact ability, and Stanton is only power at this point.

The New York Yankees tend to set the benchmark for offensive greatness in the American League, and they've got the reigning MVP. However, a comparison to Minnesota's projected lineup brings the truth to light: This Yankees’ lineup is patched together with scotch tape and dreams of 2017. Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports One of the quirks of the new MLB schedule is that the Twins end up playing all of their seven games against the New York Yankees in April. The Twins have had a bit of a hard time beating the Yankees in recent decades, and last year was no exception, with New York winning five of seven games. One thing that stood out to me though, particularly in the September matchup between the teams, was how surprisingly thin New York’s lineup was. They had some key injuries by then, sure, but even when healthy only two qualified hitters posted an OPS above .800 for the year. In the offseason, they re-signed Aaron Judge and acquired Carlos Rodón to slot in behind Gerrit Cole in their rotation. Their pitching certainly looks great, but the lineup looks exactly the same, with the team putting a lot of faith in its two young shortstop prospects settling in quickly. It almost feels like we take for granted that New York will have a powerhouse lineup. Reality paints a different picture, so I thought it would be fun to look at why the Twins lineup will outperform the supposed “top ten” lineup of the Yankees. Looking at this position player group, the first thing you notice is they can’t start their best hitters if Giancarlo Stanton plays DH, his natural position. One of D.J. LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo need to sit unless you throw Stanton out to left field, and that doesn’t seem wise. Let’s run through their options in the lineup: The Yankees’ best hitter is Judge, and he makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Last year, he played like two MVP candidates in one, finishing the year with a 10.6 bWAR season. He’s amazing. Their second best hitter last year was Rizzo, who posted a 131 OPS+ with 32 home runs and mistake-free defense. He will turn 34 this summer, spent time on the IL last year, and hit .228. Torres was next best. He got some of his power back after a few down years, but maybe at the expense of being selective at the plate, with a career-low .310 OBP to go along with his 24 home runs. Here you start to see the issue. Jose Trevino fooled us for a little while, upselling a hot start into being the starting catcher in the All-Star game, but in the second half he settled back into who he is: an overly-aggressive hitter with little power but some decent contact ability who is good for an 85 OPS+. LeMahieu wasn’t very good last year with a slugging of .377, an improvement on his .362 from a year before. He still gets on base, but the drop in power is a little alarming for a guy set to turn 36 next summer. Center-fielder Harrison Bader played well for the Yankees in the playoffs, but got into only 14 games during the regular season due to a foot injury. He’s a New York guy, and he’s had a couple of 114 OPS+ seasons, but he’s not a good bet to stay healthy, having never come to the plate 450 times in a season. As for Stanton, he’s the kind of player that the team may have cut bait with if money were no object (he is still owed 175M, 20M of that paid by the Marlins). He can no longer field and he can’t run, ranking in the bottom five percent in the league by sprint speed. He also can’t stay healthy, with leg injuries decimating his career. New for 2022? He can no longer get on base, with a .297 OBP. Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson are albatrosses on this team, and they couldn’t find any takers for either contract this offseason. New York will presumably roll with the pair, who combined to hit to a .663 OPS and 23 home runs in 2022. The Yankees think both can bounce back, especially Donaldson. But he’s 37. Hicks hasn’t been good since the Rockies were making the playoffs. Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza are big-time shortstop prospects who both figure to play roles for the team in 2023, hopefully in place of Isiah Kiner-Falefa who managed only an 84 OPS+ last year. But IKF figures to still start a lot of games, at least in April. Add it all up and you have a solid-enough offense, but if Judge misses time, this lineup is listless and will rely heavily on its pitching staff to keep them in games. Even with Judge, the Twins have roughly as much top end talent with a lot more depth. Let’s confirm that going player by player. Note that this assumes Stanton starts in left field, because I’m feeling charitable. Leading off, Jorge Polanco beats out LeMahieu. Both have injury concerns but Polanco is much younger and had a much better year last year. Judge beats out Carlos Correa. Can’t do much about that. Byron Buxton beats out Rizzo, although that can change quickly based on availability. I think José Miranda is a more valuable hitter than Stanton at this point, based on performance, diversity of approach and quality of at-bats. And while Stanton’s place in the lineup costs the Yankees a bat, Miranda allows the Twins to see more of what they have in Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach at first base and DH. Torres beats out Joey Gallo pretty easily, unless you are a big believer in a Gallo bounce-back. Donaldson is ahead of Kirilloff, but only slightly. This could swing really quickly if Donaldson continues to slide, and Kirilloff emerges from Spring Training healthy. Bader beats Max Kepler, but Kepler also beats Hicks, who figures to play here whenever Stanton is DH. I’ll call this a tie. Christian Vázquez is a better hitter than Trevino. Yankees fans can take solace that their catcher is probably a better defender. Larnach and Nick Gordon both are better hitters than IKF by quite a bit. If Volpe or Peraza have strong rookie seasons and IKF heads to the bench, this is a different story. You can quibble about a few of these in both directions, but the Twins take at least five of nine, if not seven. The fact is, the Yankees are forced to play a lot of guys with a sub .700 OPS. Worse yet, none of them have any remaining upside, outside of maybe a mild bounce-back from Donaldson. The Twins have injury issues, but their depth has improved to the point that all four of their bench players could capably start on other teams, including the Yankees- outside of Ryan Jeffers. That helps. The Yankees can’t say the same, with only the shortstop prospects and Oswaldo Cabrera available as reinforcements. The Yankees, with their resources, have the luxury of deciding when they need to stop investing in their offense. The Twins don’t, and still have a better projected lineup with better fallback options. The top end pitching is a different story, however. Maybe the Twins should call Corbin Burnes to tell him they’re there for him. View full article

I just want to bring it back a smidge. Initially your claim was that using Gibson as a comp does not inspire confidence. If not Kirk Gibson, who would inspire confidence for you?

Yeah cuz Ray Lankford was awesome! Power-speed threat, OPS topped out at .996. 123 career OPS+. Good defender. Always had him on my team in video games.

A team whose biggest strength is outfield defense, yet their 8th and 9th inning guys are the lone ground ball oriented pitchers. I'm sure it'll be fine.

That 38.4 WAR not doing anything for ya?

My guess is that is why the front office is playing hardball with Max Kepler. If Kirilloff isn't an option, Gallo moves to first, with Kepler and Larnach the starting corner outfield. That would also mean the DH spot would likely go to Gordon against righties and one of the catchers or Farmer against lefties. Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel also become viable options.

I scoured the internet for this, but Gibson and some college tennis players were all I could find. The surgery has a high success rate among the general population, but then again we don't have to torque our wrists against 100 MPH fastballs.

That's a pretty cool article as far as understanding what causes most wrist issues for hitters. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are two of my favorite hitters all time, so hopefully Kirilloff follows a similar path!

Alex Kirilloff is following the path blazed by an MVP and World Series legend. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The Twins certainly have a history when it comes to their most hyped prospects getting to the majors and immediately or shortly thereafter suffering career-altering injuries. To make matters worse, these prospects usually show they can handle the hardest part of breaking through to the majors: holding their own, or even thriving against big league pitching/hitting. A few examples: Jason Kubel (Knee) Joe Mauer (Knee) Francisco Liriano (Elbow) Byron Buxton (Three Stooges Syndrome) Royce Lewis (Knee X2) Trevor Larnach (Core) And to a lesser extent: Bailey Ober (Groin) Christian Guzmán (Shoulder) Another player to add may be Alex Kirilloff. Drafted by the Twins 15th overall in 2016, he hit right away in the short-season leagues until he tore a ligament in his elbow and missed all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He reestablished himself in 2018, hitting .348 in two levels of Single-A. Prior to 2019, he was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the 39th best overall prospect while being praised for “preternatural raw hitting talent.” He dealt with more minor injuries the following few years, but still ranked as high the ninth overall prospect at MLB.com and fifteenth at Baseball America. Opinions of scouts obviously differed, but no one doubted his hitting ability. The question was how much power he would show and at what position. However, since debuting in the 2020 postseason, just about nothing has gone according to plan. Kirilloff tore a ligament in his wrist in 2021 after starting out hot at the plate, tried to play through it and lost his ability to drive the ball. He underwent season-ending surgery, came back in 2022, and experienced the same soreness. He took some time off, went to Triple-A and raked for a month, his power seemingly back. He arrived back with the big club in June and continued to hit with a slash line of .306/.346/.469 in the 29 games following his promotion. He looked good at first and playable in the outfield. Had the Twins found their number five hitter for the next several years? Not quite. A recurrence of the same wrist issue again ended his season, this time resulting in a much more invasive ulna shaving surgery. Now, his .694 career OPS is below average and often quoted by national outlets as reasons why he is a disappointment, but that’s pretty lazy analysis. After starting his career 0-for-14 in 2021, Kirilloff went on a seven-game tear, hitting for a 1.190 OPS before he sustained the original wrist injury. A lot of players have hot seven game stretches, and never become anything, but the 29-game stretch in 2022 cemented for me what he is with two wrists. Watch a single game of a healthy Kirilloff while factoring in his prospect pedigree, and its hard to come away thinking he is anything but a pure, line-to-line hitter with tremendous plate coverage. That said, he is aggressive, and I doubt we’ll ever see him walk in ten percent of his plate appearances, healthy or not. He’s also not quick in the outfield, so his bat will need to carry him. But take a look at this swing, his second opposite field homer of that day, and tell me it won’t. In my player comps series, I compared his upside to a less patient Will Clark, but a more realistic comp may be Rondell White, a notoriously aggressive hitter who hit for high averages and decent power during his heyday with the Expos. The caveat, of course, is we don’t know how Kirilloff’s wrist will respond to the bone -breaking surgery and plate implant completed only six months ago. One source of optimism is the one major leaguer who underwent the same procedure over forty years ago: Kirk Gibson. After starring in baseball and football at Michigan State, Gibson was touted as one of the game’s premier power-speed prospects in the late 1970s but almost had his career ended before it began after he took a swing during his rookie season on June 16, 1980. He felt a pop in his wrist and immediately left the game. What happened next is documented in the book Detroit Tigers 1984: What a Start! What a Finish! “Gibson woke up the next day in severe pain. The team doctors could not find a problem, so the wrist was put in a cast to rest it. The injury resulted in a truncated season in which Gibson hit .263 with nine home runs. In August, he visited the Mayo Clinic, where doctors found the problem: an abnormal development in his arm bones. They shortened his ulna bone and inserted a steel plate. Gibson was told that he would need eight months of rehabilitation. There were no guarantees that the wrist would hold up or that Gibson would ever play baseball again. The irony was that the wrist injury would not have affected his playing football.” Gibson did reinjure the wrist in 1981 and sat out a month, but returned and hit .328 the rest of the year. The surgery was clearly a success, as Gibson hit .275/.358/.477 the rest of the decade, winning an MVP in 1984 and hitting perhaps the most famous home run in baseball history. By all accounts, Kirilloff is doing well in his rehab, experiencing minor soreness but not the pain he felt in 2021 or 2022. Expecting him to turn into Kirk Gibson is probably foolish (or at least unfair), but at least there is precedent for a top prospect to rebound from such an extreme procedure and have a long, productive career, View full article

I think Lewis has expressed a desire to stay on the infield and we should have room down the line with Polanco on team options through '25 and Miranda a question mark at third.

I don't mind this lineups at all! But I don't think the brass would stick Kirilloff 3rd right away. Maybe if he blows us away in spring and his wrist is right. Big ifs though.

I sincerely hope Kirilloff and Miranda are ahead of old Max and Joey in the lineup. I just don't see it happening at the start of the year.

This team is an optimist's dream considering the extremely high variance across the 40 man. I'm hoping we just beat the 50th percentile outcome.

I could see Lee needing a full year in the minors but Julien figures to be one of the first reinforcements, similar to Lewis or Miranda last year. He turns 24 in April and has a pretty advanced approach. Do you want the team to trade from its already thin system?