Hans Birkeland

The Triple-A team in St. Paul is cooking on a daily basis, it seems, with live arms and powerful bats. Which Saints players stand a chance to impact the Twins' playoff run in September, and how can room be made for them? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (photo of Austin Martin) Young players are wild cards. Sometimes they pop right up, like Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, and become instant contributors. Sometimes they flop, like Jose Miranda (though a healthy shoulder could certainly improve things). But the energy that a young star can provide to a lagging team is immeasurable, especially in the postseason. Jeremy Pena and Bryson Stott proved that last year in their team’s respective runs. Sometimes a young guy plays a bit part that changes the scope of how a team operates, like Terrance Gore as pinch runner extraordinaire for the Royals’ World Series teams, or David Price in the bullpen for the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. Do the Twins have anyone that can provide the sort of youthful magnetism that sparks runs through the playoffs? Yeah, there’s a few. Austin Martin Martin has created some potential call-up buzz with his hot start to August. He offers elite speed, controls the strike zone and hits right-handed, all strengths the major-league team seems to lack. If he played for, say, the Rays or Orioles, his skillset wouldn’t matter nearly as much. Those teams have plenty of dynamic young players who can hit lefties and spark a rally. He also doesn’t have power, and frankly, that may only help the Twins. Since the departure of Luis Arraez, they could use a guy the opposing pitcher knows is not trying to go bridge with every swing (something I wrote about previously). In the playoffs, that can be terrifying when a single in the right moment can swing the outcome of a game. Similarly, if Martin reaches base late in the game (his OBP is currently .381 for the Saints) that can create high anxiety for a pitcher, especially if they struggle to hold runners on. The team is certainly keeping a close eye on his progress to see if they want to bite the bullet and add Martin to the 40-man and active roster before rosters expand. DaShawn Keirsey A late-blooming outfielder, Keirsey played well this year for the Wind Surge before being called up to St. Paul less than two weeks ago. He is a major speed threat (33 steals in 2023) who plays a strong center field and can pop the occasional home run. A lefty, he could be a platoon-mate for Michael A. Taylor, much like Nick Gordon before his injury. He’s 26, so the Twins should see what they have in Keirsey before they have to make a 40-man decision on him this offseason. Chris Williams Williams has major power from the right side of the plate, plays first base and can play catcher as well. He tends to go on major home run heaters, and a well-timed one could be a boon to an offense lacking in both right-handed bats and first basemen. He has posted a .919 OPS for the Saints this year and, like Keirsey, would have to be added to the 40-man this offseason or else be exposed to the Rule 5 draft (as they both have the last two years). Andrew Stevenson The speedster has played left and center field for the Saints after being picked up off waivers from Washington after playing parts of five seasons in the big leagues with the Nationals. He has an .895 OPS this year, with 38 steals and 14 home runs. He could be a lightning-in-a-bottle-type who plays with the sort of urgency you can only get from a 29-year-old trying to prove he belongs. However, he hits left-handed and is better suited for left-field, so he wouldn’t make sense without an injury or two to the current crop of Twins lefty corner bats. Brooks Lee Lee is still adjusting to Triple-A. He looks the part of an impact bat and has since before he was drafted eighth overall in 2022. He offers pop from both sides of the plate and controls the strike zone. He has a line-drive swing that looked like it would lead to a lot of doubles coming out of college. Potentially more of those liners will turn into home runs as he fills out (and he has). Where the Twins could put him is a big question mark, and they may internally think he’s better off adjusting to Triple-A and playing every day for the time being unless a major infield injury occurs. It would be exciting to see a polished young bat like his in a postseason lineup facing a guy without a full scouting report on him yet. Yunior Severino Severino is a poor man’s Lee, but he’s a little older (24 in October) and has more current power in his profile. He has played both second base and third base, and he can switch-hit. His numbers have improved each of the last three years as he has moved up the system, culminating in a .913 OPS this year with 25 homers (all but one in Wichita). He has also been playing some first base recently, meaning the Twins may be looking at him if Joey Gallo continues to struggle and Alex Kirilloff isn’t able to return from his shoulder injury. Kody Funderburk Funderburk is a left-handed reliever, and the Twins currently only have one in their pen in 36-year-old Caleb Thielbar. It may be worth seeing if Funderburk, 26, can contribute in the big leagues. He has struck out 36% of batters thus far in 2023. His walk rate is a little high (11.2%), but he isn’t Jovani Moran. Surprising a playoff opponent with a lefty they have never faced could be an advantage in a short series. Roster Implications None of these guys are on the 40-man roster, so adding them to the active roster would require some difficult decisions. It is possible. If the team were to add, say, two players to the 40-man, they could move Jose Miranda and Jorge Alcala to the 60-day IL. They could also outright Oliver Ortega, who had a nice run but doesn’t look like an impact arm long-term. Adding players to the active roster is trickier. Gallo is a DFA candidate if his recent adjustments are a mirage, while Kyle Farmer has just one more year of arbitration and hasn’t done the thing he’s most skilled at (crushing lefties) this year. The presence of Donovan Solano and Royce Lewis make him, arguably, redundant, though he is beloved in the clubhouse. Willi Castro and Jordan Luplow both have options, as well. I would hazard a guess that at least one of the players currently on the 26-man roster will succumb to some sort of injury in the coming weeks. But this team shouldn’t wait. Players need to be on the 40-man before rosters expand to be eligible for the playoffs (although they can be creative with injury replacements), and trotting out a lineup that features Luplow and Castro at the top of it as they did in Philadelphia this weekend borders on unserious. Getting a speed threat who hits better than Castro would be nice. Getting a first baseman who can show a little fight behind in the count would help, as well (sorry Joey). And one more reliever who isn’t composed mostly of home run induced scar tissue would be lovely (I still appreciate you, EP). Also available are old friends Gilberto Celestino, Trevor Larnach, and Randy Dobnak, as well as Triple-A stalwarts Jair Camargo and Anthony Prato. All represent quite an improvement on the options the team had last year, when we were mulling the addition of Michael Helman (currently injured), and no one else. What do you think? Should the team continue to trust its veteran depth pieces or shock the system with some of its young talent stockpile? Sound off in the comments! View full article

Walker JenkinsBrooks LeeEmmanuel RodriguezCharlee SotoDavid FestaMarco RayaAustin MartinTanner SchobelYunior SeverinoLuke KeaschallBrandon WinokurYasser MercedesJose RodriguezDanny De AndradeKala'i RosarioJose SalasCory LewisBrent HeadrickCJ CulpepperAlerick Soularie

Trying to end a four-game skid on the road against one of baseball's hottest teams, the Twins played one of their best games of the season. Joey Gallo hit two home runs and wasn't retired on the night. Pablo López had perhaps his best start of the year, going six scoreless against a tough Phillies lineup. Image courtesy of Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports Coming off of a loss that is certainly in the running for worst loss of the year (the second game against the Mariners at Target Field is my choice), the Twins needed to bring a lot more energy to stop their losing streak and establish some positive momentum at the end of a difficult road trip. The Guardians did their part, blowing a 5-3 lead in the ninth inning against Tampa Bay to extend their run of futility, and giving the Twins a chance to retake a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central. The Twins delivered, and then some. Box Score Starting pitcher: Pablo López: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (92 Pitches, 60 Strikes, 65.2%) Home Runs: Matt Wallner (8), Joey Gallo 2 (20), Carlos Correa (15) Top 3 WPA: López (.329), Gallo (.152) Correa (.083) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Things started out promising. Facing a solid but unspectacular right-handed pitcher in Taijuan Walker, the night began with walks to Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco. After Carlos Correa hit a grounder soft enough to avoid a double play and advance the runners, Max Kepler hit a grounder up the middle to score Julien. Ryan Jeffers also drew a walk before Matt Wallner lined out sharply to Jake Cave in center. The Twins put runners on base in the second and third innings, as well, but came up empty even as Walker's control wavered. Pablo López also started out positively, getting dominating strikeouts against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper sandwiched around a liner from Alec Bohm that struck López on the inner thigh. López was fortunate to avoid injury and didn't appear any worse for the wear. After drawing five walks against Walker in the first three innings, the Twins decided to do some actual damage in the fourth, starting with an impressive homer off the bat of Wallner. He stayed back on a curveball on the outside edge of the plate and hammered it 108 MPH, a homer in all 30 parks. Wallner's ability to adjust to a pitch he may have been fooled by caused me to outwardly exclaim that he is fundamentally a different hitter than Joey Gallo, someone I was worried would represent Wallner's ceiling. Wallner is still no sure-thing, but being able to adjust mid-pitch and crush a breaking ball is something Gallo rarely does. On queue, Gallo took a splitter from Walker and bashed it the other way, just over the fence in left field. Is it possible that Gallo is making an adjustment to let the ball travel a bit more? Testing the theory, he later managed to line a 1-2 slider of the right field wall facing lefty Matt Strahm in the sixth. Finally, he broke the game open with a three-run homer in the seventh. He added a two-strike single in the ninth. If nothing else, he at least is giving himself a chance in deeper counts, and that's a nice development. Meanwhile, López cruised through the fourth inning, racking up strikeouts and spotting his sweeper and change-up where he wanted. He got away with a few fastballs in the middle of the plate, but Phillies' hitters were late on it, perhaps with offspeed on their minds. Things got hairier in the fifth inning, López allowed a sharp single to the red-hot Trea Turner before striking our JT Realmuto on a 3-2 fastball way outside the zone. With López's sweeper seemingly not cooperating, Cave then looped one to right field for a single before Rodolfo Castro got the barrel on a 2-1 change-up and lined out to Kepler. That brought up reigning NL home run champ Kyle Schwarber, capable of tying the game at three with one swing, but López got the Phillies' leadoff hitter to pop out to end the threat, preserving the 3-0 advantage. The Phillies put up a potential rally in the sixth, as well. Bryce Harper ripped a one-out double before Nick Castellanos roped a line drive to the left-center gap. Somehow, Michael A. Taylor caught up to the hooking liner, making an excellent diving catch to quell the uprising. Bryson Stott grounded out to end the inning, giving López six shutout innings when the Twins really needed them. Correa then added some insurance off tough lefty Gregory Soto, hitting a 1-1 slider out to left field to extend the lead to 4-0, but the Twins weren't done. Kepler followed with a booming double off Soto and scored on a single from Wallner. Gallo then added his second home run, a three-run shot that put the game out of reach. The add-on runs are a welcome sight. The good: Kepler stroking a 99 MPH fastball from a lefty off the wall in right-center after battling back from an 0-2 count; Whatever strides Gallo is making; his OPS (.770) and batting average (.185) are now higher than Schwarber's, who somehow continues to hit leadoff for a playoff team. López has managed to string together a few great starts, and has his ERA down to 3.66. He has to be the front-runner to start game one of a playoff series. The bad: Julien looks like he has lost his timing a little. He still is only swinging at strikes, but is also swinging and missing a lot. He also has not yet had an extra-base hit in August. Correa looked a little slow rounding the bases on his home run, and was removed for Farmer in the seventh. The team was up 8-0 at that point, so it may have been just a precautionary move. What’s Next: Sonny Gray (5-5, 3.18 ERA) faces lefty Ranger Suarez (2-5, 3.96 ERA) as the Twins try for a series victory in Philadelphia. Suarez has been solid for the Phillies since coming up in 2021, but never dominant, and his baseball savant page is hardly impressive. However, he is a lefty. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Winder 42 0 0 43 0 85 Balazovic 0 39 0 0 18 57 Sands 28 0 0 0 0 28 Floro 0 0 28 0 0 28 Durán 0 0 18 0 0 18 Jax 0 0 0 0 15 15 Thielbar 0 0 0 0 15 15 Pagán 0 14 0 0 0 14 View full article

His age, mostly. But I will say he's making that decision tougher and tougher

After winning a nail-biter on Friday night, the Twins made it easier on themselves on Saturday by winning in a rout. Ryan Jeffers continues to mash and led the way with two home runs, while Kenta Maeda kept Arizona hitters off balance all night in an easy victory. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Trying to win back to back series following their debilitating sweep in Kansas City and subsequent egg-laying at the trade deadline, the Twins were delayed about a half hour by the festivities surrounding Joe Mauer's Twins Hall of Fame induction (check out a great tribute to Mauer here). Once underway they delivered one of their better performances of the year while their division rivals were throwing punches at each other, pushing the division lead to 3.5 games. Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Kenta Maeda: 6 IP 2 H 1 ER 0 BB 7 K (87 Pitches, 54 Strikes, 62%) Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers 2 (8), Michael A. Taylor (15), Max Kepler (17) Top 3 WPA: Willi Castro (.180), Jeffers (.150), Matt Wallner (.110) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Maeda was sharp early, but a couple of close pitches called balls (particularly low in the zone) resulted in some hitters counts and ultimately the first run of the game, a home run off the bat of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Opposing Maeda was rookie Ryne Nelson, a second round draft pick who struck out a lot of hitters in the minors but who has struggled to get swing and miss in the majors. He relies on his 94 MPH fastball to get weak contact from hitters, and throws it over half the time. His secondary pitches don't rate very highly, and given that and that fact that Nelson throws right-handed put him right in the Twins' cross-hairs. They went to work against Nelson in the second. Matt Wallner led off the inning with a broken bat single, and Willi Castro scorched a ground ball through the right side all the way to the warning track to score him. With Joe Mauer in the booth, Ryan Jeffers then demolished a Nelson fastball over the wall in right center field to make it a 3-1 game, part of another offensive onslaught that raised his OPS to a Mauer-like .895. After Jorge Polanco was called out on a check swing that he truly did check in the third inning, Max Kepler drove a single up the middle and Carlos Correa ended an 0-for-17 drought with a hard single off the limestone in right field (home run in 16/30 parks). Wallner then doubled down the right field line to score Kepler and Willi Castro drove home Correa with a drive to the gap in left center field that Gurriel made a nice catch on. Jeffers then smacked a hanging slider from Nelson down the left field line for a double to score Wallner, making it a 6-1 game. Meanwhile, Maeda was in cruise control, spotting his offspeed and sitting 91-92 MPH with his fastball. He continued to get squeezed by home plate umpire Emil Jimenez, but kept executing pitches and the slumping Diamondbacks lineup had no answer. When he struck out Arizona's superstar rookie Corbin Carroll to end the sixth (and his outing), he had set down 14 men in a row. Not to be outdone, Jeffers added yet another home run (115.8 MPH) in the sixth, this time off of mop-up lefty (and no-hitter throwing) Tyler Gilbert. Jeffers is unconscious right now and may need some DH at-bats going forward. The last run was delivered by newcomer Jordan Luplow, who singled off of position player Carson Kelly to score the team's 12th run. The good: Jeffers, who might need to play a little more. His improvements against right-handers (.310/.403/.500 entering the game) might mean he should represent the strong side of the platoon with Christian Vazquez. Didn't have that one on my bingo card to start the year. Michael A. Taylor has homered in three straight games, adding a solo shot the other way in the fourth inning. Kepler hit a 435 foot home run off of the lefty Gilbert. Jhoan Duran got the night off, and the team won. The bad: Tomorrow's mound opponent; Jorge Polanco struck out three times; Jovani Moran is in a major funk; Mauer's speech was pretty long. What’s Next: Dallas Keuchel (First start of 2023) faces off against Arizona ace Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.41 ERA) as the Twins try to complete a perfect home stand on Sunday. Gallen has been good, but his team has been playing at a .250 clip (7-21) since early July. Keuchel faces one of the teams that cut bait on him last year as he tries to prove that his numbers with the Saints (1.13 ERA) can carry over to a major league pennant race. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Durán 14 0 15 19 0 48 Winder 0 36 0 0 0 36 Morán 0 0 0 0 30 30 Jax 14 0 13 0 0 27 Pagán 16 0 0 11 0 27 Balazovic 0 0 0 0 26 26 Thielbar 0 11 0 12 0 23 Floro 0 0 0 19 0 19 View full article

The top of the Twins' system is rich in position players. And if we don't pick up options on Polanco and Kepler, let Gray, Maeda, Gallo, Farmer and Solano walk there will be some money to spend but I wouldn't be surprised if our payroll drops to 130M or so.

I don't think the team's future would be compromised if we traded away Cody Lawyerson and Jose Rodriguez.

Revenues down, team-record payroll, unwilling to trade low level prospects for obvious needs. No explanation. That's pretty simple.

The front office had conversations and could have made moves. Their explanations for not doing so don't hold water, so the only explanation I can think of is that ownership didn't approve adding payroll, just like the 2022 White Sox. Image courtesy of David Berding-USA TODAY Sports In my never-ending quest to grapple with unfavorable realities by saying what things are similar to other things, I took a look at the 2022 White Sox to try and figure out why this Twins team did nothing at the trade deadline and then gave us an excuse on par with a sixth grader who forgot their math homework. The White Sox were last year's Twins - they had more talent than the rest of the division, but couldn't get out of their own way, had some injuries, and generally just hovered around .500. Every winning streak became a losing streak. Every breakout performance turned into an injury. The opposition crushed every 3-2 pitch with a game on the line. And when the deadline came around, the White Sox did nothing. It was inexplicable. They made one trade, sending their backup catcher, Reese McGuire, for struggling lefty reliever Jake Diekman. GM Rick Hahn had the following to say: "We're disappointed that we weren't able to do more to improve this club, I think you saw a year ago at this time, you've seen it for the last several years, arguably the last couple of decades, that it's our nature to try to improve this club at any opportunity we have. Unfortunately, we weren't able to line up on some of our other potential targets." That is probably a bit more direct than Derek Falvey's explanation for the Twins' inaction, and White Sox fans crucified Hahn's. They had five quality starters (sound familiar?), but they had a true ace in Dylan Cease, who finished runner-up for the Cy Young. They had lineup stars in Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert Jr. , Andrew Vaughn, Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada, and a great (though expensive) bullpen. It made even less sense for that team to be .500 then for the current Twins to be .500. They needed any playable outfielder and a bullpen piece at the deadline. Sound familiar? When the season concluded, it came to light that the White Sox were operating with a cap on their spending, and that was at least part of the reason for their inaction. Even with the additions of Andrew Benintendi and Mike Clevinger, they opened the 2023 season with a payroll of about $13 million less than what they ended 2022 with. Could this be a reason the Twins stood pat, as well? In Chicago's case, they had a thin farm system and probably assumed that the Twins and Guardians would return to earth in the second half, so they could avoid adding any payroll (They were right about the Twins, at least). The Twins are in a similar spot. Their farm system is weak but has a few impact guys floating around in Brooks Lee, Marco Raya, and Emmanuel Rodriguez. They could have cashed those guys in and gone for it, knowing they were likely to host a playoff series, but could the team have afforded/gotten ownership approval for adding on Paul Goldschmidt's salary? Juan Soto's? Even the $5 million owed to Teoscar Hernandez over the rest of the year? We have no indications that they either could or could not, so what follows is theory, not fact. What we do have are half-baked explanations that they didn't want to remove anyone off the 26-man roster of a team with a .500 record and had a couple of sellers turn into buyers last minute. One way to divert attention from being at your spending limit is to say you don't want to give up your prospects, but they certainly had no problem offering up Cade Povich and Christian Encarnacion-Strand last year and didn't even offer that excuse this time around. Moderately tuned-in Twins fans have tried for years to quell the masses claiming "cheap Pohlads" and "poverty franchise" at every missed free agent. While all that was true in 1999, we tried to explain that the payrolls have risen to be mid-pack. We signed Carlos Correa! We extended Pablo Lopez! There's plenty of blame to go toward the front office, but their mistakes don't have anything to do with money! It was annoying work, but someone had to do it. The team is now running into some real financial limitations, some of which are out of their control, but nonetheless could have steered the front office away from adding anyone with anything above a minimum salary the rest of the way. First, the Diamond Sports situation could greatly impact payroll flexibility. While they agreed to pay the Twins for their 2023 contract, the team is a free agent at the end of the year. And it seems increasingly unlikely that whatever media partnership they enter into for 2024 will not be nearly as lucrative as the one they had with Bally (court documents revealed that the deal was worth $54.8 million per year)- there's a reason it was hemorrhaging money beyond just mismanagement. With streaming and general shifts in the media landscape, TV deals just don't hit like they used to ten or even five years ago. If $20 million or so gets knocked off the team's revenues for 2024, that will impact the team's payroll, one way or the other. Not to mention the team is already running a franchise record $153 million payroll after signing Correa to the biggest deal in team history. Second, ticket sales have not been great. They are up over 2022 at roughly 24,000 per game, but that pales compared to 2019 (28,000/game) and 2013 (30,000/game). Twins president Dave St. Peter famously stated last August that he didn't understand why fans weren't coming to games, citing the likable, contending (at the time) team. Not noted by St. Peter was any awareness of the public perception of the team, which had yet to collapse at that point. My theory is that Falvey and Levine were directed not to add to the payroll for this year. That may have to do with the team's lackluster performance, or it might have to do with a lack of future revenue. Either way, it would seem ownership told the front office to make something up about believing in their guys and not wanting to boot anyone off the roster. I've supported most of what this front office has done, or at least could see the thinking behind their weirder decisions. But if the team is fabricating excuses for not having authorization to add a couple million to its payroll, that's dysfunctional. Adding Connor Joe and Michael Fulmer wouldn't have made this team that much more of an attraction. But don't tell me you couldn't address obvious weaknesses that wouldn't cost much in prospect capital because the market didn't shape up exactly how you anticipated or didn't want to hurt Joey Gallo's feelings. If you weren't authorized to add payroll, say that. We get that; we're Twins fans. View full article

He would look great in the 6 hole to me

Byron Buxton is selling out for power, has trouble staying on the field, frequently looks lost at the plate, and his DH-only status is gumming up the rest of the roster. He also signed a big contract that means he has to play. Where have we seen that before? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Byron Buxton has had a couple of nice games lately, staying on pitches a little better and hitting some balls hard since he returned from the paternity list. He also had a two-homer game against Lance Lynn last week. Is he back? That's a tricky question to answer because not only do we not know his physical status given all his injuries, but we also don't know if his injuries have piled up to the point that his being "back" isn't nearly the same as it once was. Even when he's been amid several hot stretches this year, the results have not been as astounding and dynamic as his 2020-2022 seasons when he was healthy. He still swings and misses too much, isn't barrelling the ball as often as he used to, and can't touch lefties, and this is all without any wear and tear related to playing the outfield. What used to be a five-tool player has suddenly become one-tool (maybe two if his knees feel good enough to steal a base). He still has power, but his hit tool is gone, maybe forever, and his fielding and arm strength are moot points. Although his contract isn't debilitating, especially given the escalators that could inflate its value, it does mean the team has to figure out ways for Buxton to help the team, even in his diminished state. A corollary, unfortunately, can be found in the Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton arrived as a much-hyped power prospect and had big seasons for Miami from 2010-2017. He could play a decent right field with a cannon arm and had a 70th percentile sprint speed as recently as 2017, his last in Miami. That year he also challenged the MLB home run record, finishing with 59 bombs. He even had a few years where he hit between .270 and .290. New York did well in terms of the prospects they gave up to acquire Stanton. They gave up Starlin Castro, by then on the downside of his career, and two prospects who appeared in the majors in 2021 but have washed out since. However, New York did take on Stanton's contract, a 13-year, $325M whopper signed in 2015. After hitting for a combined 142 OPS+ with Miami, Stanton has hit a 125 OPS+ in New York. That seems okay, but he has averaged 83 games per season due to injury, and his performance is trending down, not up. He has a 93 OPS+ this year while playing in about half of his team's games. Leg injuries are the prime culprit for Stanton, as he has missed time with a strained posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee (2019), a strained left hamstring (2020), a strained left quadriceps (2021) right ankle inflammation, and left Achilles tendinitis (2022) and another strained left hamstring this year. His stance has gotten increasingly awkward at the plate, as he utilizes an overly closed stance to try and drive pitches out over the plate, leaving him flailing at anything thrown inside. He still hits home runs; he has fourteen this year and hit 31 last year (with a Buxtonish .211/.297/.462 slash line). His speed is gone, down to the fifth percentile, and it's best not to look whenever he gets an opportunity in the outfield. Regardless of his declining performance, the Yankees continue to play Stanton. The rest of the lineup isn't hitting, so it's not like they have better options. He is mainly playing DH, which has limited the lineup flexibility of the Yankees, and possibly cost them injuries to their other players who could rest at DH once in a while. The slumping DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo are older players forced to play the field daily so Stanton can hit choppers to the left side and lightly jog to first. They also have $118M owed to him over the next four years, so even if they wanted to cut bait, it just isn't feasible. Stanton is a hard worker doing his best to contribute, but the optics aren't good for an underperforming team. What does this mean for Buxton? A couple of things. For one, he needs to hope Stanton isn't his future; a shell of a former great trying to drown out the boos while his body continually fails him. Two, he also needs to find out if an operation can fix his ailing knees and hips. Magglio Ordonez fixed his knees with shock-wave therapy and played five more effective years; on the other side, Jose Valentin got a ligament transplant from a cadaver but couldn't get back to playing shape (he was 38 then). Those were radical Hail Marys, but rest, rehab, and clean-up procedures haven't done the trick for Buxton. Third, the team needs to determine if it can rely on Buxton to be a superstar anchor in its lineup, whether he plays the field or not. One of the Yankees' errors is depending on Stanton to carry their offense along with Aaron Judge. They have made massive investments in their pitching, but supplementing Judge and Stanton hasn't been a priority. Not surprisingly, the Yankees' offense has stalled for long stretches over the past few years, lacking a multi-dimensional offensive threat to give Judge a break. Meanwhile, they continue to write the likes of Franchy Cordero, Jake Bauers, Oswaldo Cabrera, Greg Allen, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa into their lineup. The Twins traded away Luis Arraez partially on the assumption that Buxton and Correa could anchor the lineup. But that just hasn't happened. The team goes when rookie Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff go, and now Kirilloff has hit the IL with a shoulder injury he could not play through. Like the Yankees, the Twins have struggled to score (the past few weeks notwithstanding) and have relied heavily on the home run ball when they do. If Buxton is just Stanton, a one-dimensional slugger with a sub .300 OBP who looks hopeless in the box half the time, then this lineup has a problem. Relying on rookies and Max Kepler to put up runs against high-level pitching is too much to ask. Not being able to cycle guys through the DH slot so Buxton can strike out four times a game isn't a winning strategy, either. If he isn't going to hit, those at-bats need to go to Matt Wallner, Kirilloff, Julien, Royce Lewis, and possibly a right-handed deadline acquisition. Maybe pinch-hitting is his role for this year. He may need a lengthy IL stint. The calculus changes if Buxton can use his legs again in the batter's box and starts hitting lefties. The team would still be a right-handed bat short, but having a true thumper in the middle of the lineup would drastically alter how opposing pitchers navigate it. As currently constructed, any Ryan Yarbrough-type can thoroughly dominate the Twins' offensive attack, knowing they don't have to worry as much about the Juliens and Kirilloffs of the world and can focus on coming up with a plan to set down Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer. The Twins are in a tough spot. They built this team around Buxton to a large extent. If he's good, they're good - that's been true for nearly a decade. Maybe he needs to close his stance a little. View full article

Coming off of a crushing defeat the night before, Twins pitchers again struggled against light-hitting Kansas City. A comeback from the lineup came up a hair short in the middle innings, and the Royals bludgeoned the Twins' bullpen late to seal a series win. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 4 IP 11 H 6 ER 0 BB 5 K (90 Pitches, 60 Strikes, 66.6%) Home Runs: Max Kepler (15) Bottom 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (-.323), Bailey Ober (-.288), Jovani Moran (-.069) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): After last night's Bobby Witt-related heroics, the Twins needed a win in the worst way, and fate seemed to grace them in the form of the Royals' beleaguered journeyman starter, Jordan Lyles. Lyles came into play with a 1-12 record that somehow overstates his 6.19 ERA. He pitched well against the Twins in his first start of the year, going 5 1/3 innings and allowing one earned run. The Twins got revenge in late April, tagging him for seven runs over four innings. Let's just say today's tilt split the difference. Opposing Lyles was Bailey Ober, who has quietly become the Twins' most reliable starter (if not their best). Ober's ability to not have a bad start has been a godsend given the increasing amount of clunkers turned in by Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. Unfortunately, all things must come to an end. The night started just as last night ended, with a Witt home run, this time on a hanging 3-2 slider from Ober. Twins pitchers would do well to stop waking up elite prospects in their sophomore year after Julio Rodriguez almost single-handedly cost the Twins their previous series with the Mariners. Unfortunately, Witt and the Royals weren't done. The offense appeared to get to work in the top of the second on a Max Kepler leadoff double. After a sacrifice fly and a Byron Buxton hit-by-pitch, Matt Wallner lifted a lazy fly ball to the opposite field. Converted catcher M.J. Melendez fired a strike to home to nab Kepler, but the Twins challenged that catcher Salvador Perez was blocking the plate. You be the judge, but Perez's actions seemed a lot more egregious than those of Gary Sanchez last year against Toronto. The call stood, however, and the Twins lost their challenge. That proved pivotal, as Ober was picked apart in the second inning. After Michael Massey ambushed an Ober fastball for a home run, Kyle Isbel bunted towards an out-of-position (in two ways) Jorge Polanco, resulting in an easy base hit. A hit-by-pitch, misplayed fly ball and sacrifice fly followed, which brought up Witt again, and naturally he singled up the middle (with an 0-2 count) to push the score to 4-0. Undeterred, the Royals added two more runs in the third on a horrendous little squibber from Isbell that snuck through the drawn in infield, ending Ober's impressive streak of allowing four runs or less in seventeen consecutive starts. Ober's streak of 21 starts in a row of five innings pitched or more also came to an end when Jordan Balazovic relieved him to start the bottom of the fifth. The Twins did manage to load the bases in the fourth inning with no outs, and cashed in three runs on a Polanco grounder and two-run double from Byron Buxton. (his first of three doubles on the night) The inning was set up by the usual suspects; Edouard Julien (single), Alex Kirilloff (single) and Max Kepler (walk) all worked excellent at-bats to give the Twins life. Lyles pitched around a leadoff walk in the fifth (to Willi Castro of all people), but the top of the order couldn't break through any further, allowing Lyles to exit in line for the win (his second all year). The Twins threatened that lead in the sixth, as Kepler homered, Buxton doubled, and Christian Vazquez drove in Buxton with a single to make the score 6-5. The inning could have really gone sideways had Correa, batting with the bases loaded, one out and facing a pitcher with an ERA over ten, not grounded into an inning ending double play. For those that believe in momentum, well, it swung after that. Jordan Balazovic allowed hits to Witt and Perez that resulted in a run in the sixth, and Jovani Moran continued to struggle, allowing an RBI triple to Drew Waters in the seventh before Josh Winder relieved him and allowed a single and a Witt triple to push the deficit back to five runs. The lineup made one final push in the eighth, with an RBI groundout from Vazquez and a single from Willi Castro scoring a second run. After Correa singled, the tying run would be at the plate in the form of Julien.. well it would have except Castro was thrown out trying to advance to third, a risky bet with absolutely no payoff even if he had reached safely. The good: Buxton has not been retired since he returned from the paternity list, with three doubles to boot. Kepler had a homer, a double and a key walk in the fourth. His OPS is up to .744. The bad: Ober had a truly bad start for the first time since last May, and Moran looks like he may need some time in Triple-A. Correa grounded into his league-leading 20th double play. What’s Next: Kenta Maeda (2-5, 4.62 ERA) tries to salvage the series opposing the Royals' Ryan Yarbrough (3-5, 4.70 ERA) Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Winder 0 36 0 0 40 76 Balazovic 0 32 0 0 33 65 Pagán 19 0 0 18 0 37 Morán 14 0 0 9 11 34 Floro 18 0 0 9 0 27 Durán 0 0 0 25 0 25 Jax 0 0 0 10 0 10 View full article

This is awesome- I didn't realize he was that reliable.

100% There's more risk reward with the other four starters, but 6 IP 3 ER or less you can bank on with Ober, which is a nice luxury to have!

While many of the Twins' vaunted rotation has taken steps backward, Bailey Ober has continued to get better. Is he the team's new number one starter? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The Twins rotation has been a pronounced strength all season despite an underperforming offense and injured bullpen dampening its results. Sonny Gray and Pablo López were both All-Stars, while Joe Ryan very well may have been if he hadn’t pitched the Sunday before the break. Kenta Maeda has pitched incredibly well in four of five starts since returning from the IL and carries a strong track record of effectiveness. But the Twins’ best starter at the moment didn’t even start the year on the active roster. I’m referring, of course, to John Bailey Ober. That may seem like a hot take, but Ober has been truly impressive this year, posting a 156 ERA+ (meaning 56% above average) while throwing a quality start in 11 of his 16 turns in the rotation. For what it's worth, he is the only system-developed starter pitching for the Twins right now. He also offers a unique skillset: At 6’9” his extension at release is in the 99th percentile among MLB starters, allowing his 91-92 MPH fastball to be a legitimate weapon when paired with an effective slider and changeup that he, most days, commands quite well. He walks very few hitters and has a 93rd percentile chase rate that results in a lot of weak contact. He also has the intestinal fortitude to rebound from rough innings, such as last week in Seattle (three runs in the first) or in May against the Giants (four runs in the first). In both outings he lasted at least five innings and didn't allow any further damage, saving the bullpen and keeping the deficit at a minimum. But when he's at his best, such as his start in Baltimore, he can be dominant: But saying Ober is the best of the bunch right now isn’t all about his individual success; it’s also about the flaws of the other starters and how they have been amplified recently. Let's go through those individually. Sonny Gray Gray was great in April, but let's be honest, he hasn’t been great since. In broad terms, he is not only winless since that opening month, but he has had only three quality starts (out of 14). One of them, in Baltimore, happened when he exited the game after six innings, saying he was gassed (to date the only time Gray has ever agreed with a manager’s decision to remove him). That may have been a revelatory moment, as he wasn’t allowed to go back out and have his worst inning. In every start he makes, he cruises through about four of his innings, commanding his breaking pitches and confounding hitters with his vast repertoire. Also in every start, he completely loses his command for a brief period. Sometimes he rebounds, like in his start at Target Field against the Orioles right before the break where he allowed six hits in the second inning, and none in any other inning. Sometimes he can’t get through a lineup a third time, like against Cleveland on June 3rd, where he looked dominant through six innings. In the seventh, however, he gave up his first homer of the year, and the lead, to light-hitting Will Brennan in a game the Twins eventually lost. His home run rate is elite, and that keeps his overall numbers solid (although his walk rate is an elevated 3.6 per nine innings), but it's hard to trust a pitcher who completely loses his ability to command the ball once per game. It stems, I believe, from his refusal to give in to hitters, something Twins starters of the past didn't do enough of. During the past few decades, Twins’ starters would be so afraid to walk guys that they would seemingly rather give hitters a cookie down the middle than a free pass, which has hurt them in the playoffs and possibly in the development of pitchers like Jose Berrios. Gray, by contrast, is so willing to walk guys rather than let them get a home run pitch, that he has given up four bases loaded walks already this year. It’s cool to see a guy paint the corners on a 3-2 pitch with men on base, but if you’re missing your spot by an inch or two, that can lead to lots of traffic, which we’ve seen over and over from Gray. I’m not sure if he is unable to get weak in-zone contact, or if he’s just too stubborn to pitch any other way. Either way, his winless streak is looking less and less like a mirage. Pablo López López has been average on the surface (in terms of ERA and wins), elite one level below the surface (strikeout to walk ratio, baseball savant page), and then pretty bad when it comes to combating the approaches opposing teams roll out against him. You can dink and dunk him into submission, and when he’s at that point, he can allow hard contact. Sometimes the dinks and dunks don’t fall for hits and he looks incredible, but when they do and he gets put into high stress situations, he tends to unleash his worst pitches of the day. That was definitely the case in Oakland on July 15th when he coughed up a six run lead against a Triple-A caliber lineup. On June 24th against Detroit, he allowed three singles and a walk before a 0-2 mistake pitch to Zach McKinstry scored two on a sharp single that decided the game (it shouldn’t have, but it did). On June 1st against the Guardians, he cruised through five, saw the offense give him a 3-1 lead, and then promptly gave up six singles after a leadoff walk to blow the game. He’s good overall, and you have to love the strikeout rate, but if offenses like the Royals, Tigers and Guardians can get under his skin, that doesn't portend well for a playoff matchup. Joe Ryan Ryan has been legitimately good overall, but as the summer has heated up, so has his opponents’ home run rate. He has given up thirteen home runs in his last seven starts, and although we would all like to believe it was due to tipping pitches, making the change to wearing sleeves during his starts hasn’t helped much. Opponents are hitting .354 off of his sweeper/slider with four home runs, so it looks as though only one of his Driveline-sourced pitches has been worth the hype (his split-change has still been effective). Unlike Gray and López, it seems as though working through trouble is a strength of Ryan’s, as he is the only one of the three to post an OBP under .300 with runners on (Gray at .342, Lopez at .324), which definitely passes the eye test. But he has yet to come up with a way to punish hitters who are looking to ambush him, particularly his fastball early in counts. He has a great strikeout to walk rate, amazing pitch values and a shutout against Boston, but his ERA since the end of May is 5.65 and opponents are slugging .493 against him in that time period. It's a thin slice, but he just hasn’t been that good since May outside of that shutout. Teams have adjusted to him and he needs to adjust back. Meanwhile Ober simply has not had a bad start, and that has proven more and more valuable to a team that isn’t getting as many top-notch pitching performances as it did in April and May. It is fair to wonder if the team has an innings limit placed on Ober, as he has never pitched more than 109 innings in a season at either the college or professional level. Injuries have played a part in that, with nagging soft tissue injuries the main culprit, so it may be logical to find extra days of rest for him. Hopefully, the team isn’t considering a shutdown at a specific innings threshold, ala Stephen Strasburg in 2012. If Ober pitches the rest of the year, he would be in line for about thirteen more starts. He is averaging nearly six innings per start, so even if you round that down to five and a half innings on average going forward, he is on pace for over 70 additional innings to the 112 he has already pitched between the majors and minors this year. It will be an interesting story to watch, as he offers the best combination of deception, command and ability to pitch through adversity of any of the Twins starting five. Perhaps a six man rotation featuring Dallas Keuchel could spread those innings out a bit. Let's hope Ober is available in October, since he may give the team their best chance of winning game one of a playoff series. View full article

Facing a reeling White Sox team, the Twins got a strong effort from Sonny Gray and survived a dominant outing from Chicago ace Dylan Cease, rallying against the Sox bullpen to take a late lead, with Christian Vázquez playing the role of hero in a tight victory that gave the Twins a series win. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray: 6 IP 7 H 2 ER 1 BB 4 SO (88 Pitches, 59 Strikes, 67%) Home Runs: none Top 3 WPA: Christian Vázquez (.350), Carlos Correa (.202), Jhoan Duran (.156) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Coming off a string of starts that would have been great save for a random 20-25 pitch stretch during which he completely lost command, Sonny Gray was looking to stay consistent against a struggling White Sox team. Gray loaded the bases in the first inning, giving up singles to Andrew Benintendi and Eloy Jimenez, walking Yasmani Grandal and getting Tim Anderson to line out at 102 MPH. The White Sox scored the first run of the game on a mental lapse from Gray, Vazquez and Edouard Julien. With one out and runners on the corners, Luis Robert got a great jump stealing second. Christian Vazquez decided to try and throw him out, and Julien tried to apply the tag rather than cutting the ball off and throwing home, allowing Tim Anderson to score from third. Grandal then singled home Robert on a middle-middle changeup to make the score 2-0. Gray settled down after that, his command of his breaking pitches improving as the game went on. He also avoided the blow-up inning, giving the Twins a quality start and keeping them in the game against an excellent mound opponent. Dylan Cease turns the clock back to 2022 The Fox broadcast interviewed Lucas Giolito during the second inning, who was asked what Cease needs to do to pitch like he did in 2022, when he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. Giolito said all Cease had to do was command his fastball, and his slider would become unhittable. That statement did prove somewhat prophetic. In the third inning, Cease threw a fastball right down the middle that Vazquez cracked for an opposite field double, and allowed a run-scoring double to Carlos Correa on a fat knuckle-curve, his third pitch and one he generally uses to get hitters to not sit on his slider. He then struck out the Twins’ best hitters of late, Julien and Alex Kirilloff on filthy breaking pitches (after getting ahead with the fastball) to escape the jam. He too settled in, relying more on his slider, spotting his fastball and dominating at-bats. He allowed a leadoff walk to Correa in the sixth, but retired Julien on a painted fastball 3-2, got Kirilloff to pop out on the first pitch, and though Max Kepler had a couple of long fly balls against Cease, he flied out weakly to left field, ending whatever threat there was. Seventh Inning goes quite well After Jordan Balazovic pitched an effective top of the seventh, the Twins went to work against Keynan Middleton, a scrap heap pickup who has, with the help of a dominant changeup, pitched himself into being traded to a contender in the next week or so. Buxton drew a walk, stole second, and then Kyle Farmer got a swinging bunt single to bring up Vázquez with two men on and one out, knocking Middleton out of the game. Facing ground ball specialist Gregory Santos, Vazquez jumped on the first pitch, a 99 MPH sinker, and nearly hit a three run home run, the ball bouncing off the top of the padding in left center field, resulting in a double and scoring Buxton to tie the game. Michael A. Taylor followed with an excellent at-bat against Santos, trying to bunt with the count 2-1, and fouling off pitches until he got a center cut sinker at 101 MPH that he drove up the middle for a single that gave the Twins the lead. Jax Bends, does not Break Griffin Jax got the eighth inning, and immediately put himself into trouble, giving up a leadoff double to Luis Robert, who fought off a fastball up and in and was rewarded with a 68 mph double. After a walk, Jax was able to settle in, getting a grounder from Grandal and a jam-shot pop-up from Jake Burger. He then struck out pinch hitter Gavin Sheets on a gorgeous sweeper to end the inning. Manager Rocco Baldelli made the curious decision to sub Donovan Solano for Edouard Julien to start the eighth, a minor defensive improvement, but one that left the Twins with Max Kepler and Matt Wallner leading off the bottom of the eighth against lefty buzz saw reliever Aaron Bummer, who set down the two lefty hitters easily before retiring Byron Buxton. Duran shuts the Door The ninth inning started ominously, with rookie Oscar Colas hitting a chopper up the middle off of Jhoan Duran, a do-or-die play that Correa mishandled. Duran rebounded to strike out Carlos Perez and Benintendi, before allowing a perfectly placed infield single to Tim Anderson. That brought up Robert who struck out on a high fastball to end the game. What’s Next: Bailey Ober (6-4, 2.74 ERA) faces off against Lucas Giolito (6-6, 3.96) as the Twins look to take the sweep. Ober has been the Twins' most consistent starter this year, if not the best, and looks to continue that run of success. Giolito has had a couple of clunkers this year, but overall the changeup specialist has rebounded from a tough 2022 to become a sought-after trade chip for the south siders. A sweep would be the first non-Athletics/Royals sweep of the year for the Twins. Postgame Interviews: (Coming soon) Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Durán 0 20 0 0 21 41 Pagán 8 11 0 15 0 34 Jax 0 15 0 0 16 31 J. López 0 0 28 0 0 28 Morán 0 0 0 22 0 22 Balazovic 15 0 0 0 7 22 Sands 17 0 3 0 0 20 Ortega 0 0 18 0 0 18 View full article

I watched a couple of A ball games with CES last year and I never would have traded him under any circumstance but getting frontline starting pitching is always going to hurt. We won't get fleeced every time and this front office is going to make moves whether you are ready to get hurt again or not.