Hans Birkeland
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The Tigers have been a bit of a punchline for a few years, now. Last season’s .481 winning percentage their best since 2016. Despite that improvement, they never threatened the Twins in the American League Central, despite leapfrogging the Guardians to finish in second place, nine games behind Minnesota. They did win the season series against the Twins, however, going 8-5 behind some opportunistic hitting, baffling starting pitching and a lock-down bullpen. There's an episode of Seinfeld where Jerry discovers that his heavyset nemesis, Newman, once dated the woman Jerry was currently seeing. Not only that, Newman was the one to break up with her. "What could she see in Newman?" Jerry asks. "Perhaps there is more to Newman than meets the eye," offers Elaine. "There's less," is Jerry's retort. But Newman holds a steady job, is a talented poet, has many friends and dislikes Jerry Seinfeld. What's so bad about that? Maybe that's Detroit Tigers baseball. There are multiple reasons why they finished six games under .500 last year, but the biggest was a lackluster offense. The campaign saw them post 4.08 runs per game, 25th in the majors. Still, it was an improvement on 2022, when they finished a distant 30th, with 3.55 runs per game. That number should continue to trend upward. Their best hitter, 23-year-old Riley Greene, had some injuries, but he still posted a 117 OPS+, showing a dynamic combination of power, speed, batting average and playable center-field defense. He strikes out a lot and has had his share of injuries, but he seems likely to torment Central division pitching for years to come. They also have former No. 1 overall pick, 24-year-old Spencer Torkelson, slowly learning the league and becoming (if not the next Mark Teixeira, as some projected) a decent hitter with power and upside beyond what he has shown. He did hit 31 home runs while playing his home games at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Then there's scrap-heap find Kerry Carpenter, who has a handsome 121 OPS+ his first two years in the majors. He doesn’t offer much defensively and can be streaky at the plate, but his overall body of work points to him being a good five-hole hitter for the foreseeable future. Detroit's catcher is Jake Rogers, who represents the last chance for Detroit to get anything out of the Justin Verlander trade to Houston six years ago. Fortunately for Detroit, Rogers started to produce in 2023, with 21 home runs, a .224 ISO, decreasing (though still high) strikeout numbers and a solid defensive reputation, at age 28. Colt Keith, the Tigers' fifth-round pick in 2020, has blossomed into a top-20 global prospect despite questionable defense. Some scouts grade his power as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he has hit over .300 in each of his minor-league years. He would figure to debut sometime in 2024. Meanwhile, Rangers rookie and playoff hero Josh Jung happens to have a little brother, Jace, in the Tigers system. The younger Jung projects as a plus offensive second baseman after being drafted 12th overall in 2022 out of Texas Tech, and he also figures to get a chance very soon. Then there is Javy Baez, who has no idea what he's doing at the plate anymore, but is always a threat to figure it out at any moment. To be clear, this doesn't constitute an amazing lineup, but their ballpark will always suppress counting stats and (as a group) they certainly look more promising than the Royals, White Sox and Guardians. The pitching is intriguing, as well. Jason Foley is lockdown at the back end of the bullpen, with a 98-MPH turbo sinker he can command, while Alex Lange is pretty unhittable (despite frequent bouts of wildness). Tyler Holton has been nails as a late-inning lefty who can get six or seven outs, which Twins hitters are certainly aware of (against the Twins he pitched 11 ⅔ innings, allowing one run and striking out 16). On the starting side, lefty Tarik Skubal returned from injury to post a 2.00 FIP in 15 starts, and righty Reese Olson quietly had an excellent rookie year, holding opponents to a .215 batting average with strong peripherals over 103 innings. Former first overall pick (yes, they've got two of them, just like the Twins) Casey Mize is coming back from Tommy John surgery; Matt Manning has shown flashes; and they have top prospects Wilmer Flores and Jackson Jobe waiting in the wings. In other words, Kenta Maeda may have been the perfect signing for Detroit. If healthy, he stabilizes the middle of their rotation, and if he misses time, it opens up opportunities for some of their young pitching. They also have an excellent manager, though how much of A.J. Hinch's success was due to the Astros' cheating scandal is unknowable. But he clearly knows how to get his guys to play hard, and in particular, how to attack the Twins on both sides of the ball. The other potential contender in the Central, the Cleveland Guardians, have arguably the best pitching rotation in the division but remain short on hitting as they pray for the immediate emergence of Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter. And they no longer have the steady hand of Tito Francona piloting the ship. Winning the Draft Lottery was a nice bit of news for them, but it's likely to pay dividends in a few years, rather than immediately. The same can probably be said of Manzardo and DeLauter. The White Sox are claiming they are in a "retool" mode, rather than undergoing a full rebuild. But whatever they call it, they don't have enough talent to compete at the top of the division, and are allegedly dangling their only good pitcher in Dylan Cease. The Royals have Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino Salvador Perez, and a shrug where their farm system should be. Meanwhile, while the Baez contract is a regrettable one, the Tigers no longer have to rely on him to anchor the lineup. That responsibility now falls to Torkelson, Greene, and Carpenter, with Jung, Keith, Parker Meadows and Justyn Henry-Malloy all percolating at the top levels of their minor-league system. And with Miguel Cabrera no longer commanding 20 percent of their payroll, a Teoscar Hernandez-type signing would not be out of the question. They may even be a sleeper team for Cody Bellinger. Cleveland and the Twins, with more uncertain payroll situations, can only dream of that type of free-agent pickup. When competitive, the Tigers have shown they can be aggressive with big-name free agents, and even in the darkest doldrums of their recent dark ages, they spent $217 million on Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez. They currently have only $75.1 million committed to their 2024 payroll, after spending $122 million last year, but have spent nearly $200 million as recently as 2017. Part of that spending spree was related to owner Mike Ilitch's failing health, but they also drew more than 3 million fans per year in those days. I could see the Tigers getting to 85 wins next year, even without everything breaking right for them. The Twins should have no problem eclipsing that mark on paper, but injuries and regression could make this a race. What do you think? Are the Tigers a team on the rise, or is Cleveland still the main rival for the Twins in the Central? Sound off in the comments.
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He was considered a fairly average shortstop prior to this year. Probably better than Polanco as a shortstop (more range, better arm, a few more mistakes), and Polanco now has the reputation of being a solid 2B. He also volunteered to move to 2B to make room for White Sox SS prospect Colson Montgomery. That's pretty mature and self-aware and also pretty sad that they cut him anyway.
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Tim Anderson is pretty talented and has had an excellent career thus far. Outside of 2023, that is, when he played a role that mixed a little Charlie Brown, Frank Grimes, and Cory & Trevor into one godawful baseball experience. The Twins are set in the middle infield, but if they are looking for value, Anderson is it. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The White Sox just had one of the crummiest seasons you'll ever see. Given the results and future outlook, they may have still had a better year than the Angels, but we’re splitting hairs in that case. The Sox thought themselves contenders, and signed Mike Clevinger and Andrew Benintendi to decent-sized contracts. In fact, Benintendi’s was the largest free agent contract given out by the franchise in its history. Like the Twins going into 2023, the Sox figured that poor injury luck and underperforming their talent level in 2022 would course-correct into a contending season. Despite being less injured than the prior year, nothing went right from a performance, cohesion and soft skills standpoint. They lost 101 games, their PBO, GM and allegedly the entire clubhouse. They also lost Tim Anderson in more ways than one. He was their All-Star shortstop who up until this year played a decent shortstop while hitting .300 in his sleep. But in trying to play through an injury, his defense slipped and his hitting cratered, with only a single home run hit. He did manage to post 523 plate appearances. Speaking to MLB.com reporter Scott Merkin, Anderson offered the following assessment of 2023: A hitter's front leg is crucial to generating any sort of power. It's the same idea for golfers: the front leg acts as a brace so that the player can deliver the most force at the fullest extension without losing balance. So with an unstable lead leg, Anderson’s power dried up. His career average is 18 home runs per 162 games. We all know what happens to hitters that pitchers know can’t drive the ball. They bust them inside until they make a pitcher pay, which Anderson never really did. That is the easiest explanation as to Anderson’s fall off. The White Sox cut him a few weeks ago, declining a 14M option on his contract for 2024. I don’t know about you, but when I see the White Sox make a decision on something borderline, I make the assumption that they’re wrong. Anderson is a proud player, and Chicago is so dysfunctional that they turned that into a weakness. He played through an injury that everyone could tell was limiting him, and yet when the team was asked who their leaders were, all prominent players lowered their heads and pleaded the fifth. He got slapped by Yasmani Grandal when he criticized the catcher for skipping meetings. He then got punched out in front of the whole world by Jose Ramirez for daring to pull a Kent Hrbek on a young Guardians player the night before. He took the shot like a champ, and yet, the whole world renewed its adoration for Ramirez afterwards. Which struck me as weird, because Ramirez was the hostile actor in this case. He (or perhaps the entire Guardians clubhouse) is the one who took exception to the play the night before. He is the one who started jawing after a light tag on the butt from Anderson as he slid into second base. He was looking for some action, and although unbridled macho-ism is on the decline in baseball, it certainly reared its ugly head here. There was a thousand times more breathless coverage of Tom Hamilton’s radio call of the incident, than the fact that the face of the White Sox had been assaulted for the crime of trying to make some plays for a talented team that needed a big-time spark or seven. Anderson even got a longer suspension than Ramirez! (Also why are we in love with Ramirez when he's a hot head, chews tobacco, and left about 100M on the table to sign an extension with Cleveland. The MLBPA should hate this guy!) So let’s review: Anderson got hurt, and played through the injury. When that goes well, we call those players ‘warriors.” The clubhouse culture was clearly a problem. Anderson called out one of the worst perpetrators and got slapped. Rather than be lionized for his attempts to restore some order in Chicagoland, everyone just shrugged. He got punched and everyone took Jose Ramirez’s side. Anderson gave the White Sox 123 games despite being hurt, playing for a sorry team, and getting no support from seemingly anyone in the game. He could have lashed out. At the media, at the White Sox, at Ramirez. But he mostly stayed silent. Anderson has always been a head-down, focused and passionate player. If anyone stands a higher percent chance to rebound from the conditions they played in in 2023, it's Anderson (provided his knee is healthy next year). It would seem likely that Anderson will sign for a one year, 10M deal, or something similar. Perhaps he might want to join a division favorite with a shortstop used to being maligned by Twitter while he plays through an injury for almost an entire year. Maybe he might want to join a hard working clubhouse that would actually listen when he had something to say. The fit is not obvious in Minnesota. It would require the Twins to trade from their infield depth, although that is something they have indicated they will do. But beyond fit, it would seem to me that Anderson stands an excellent chance of getting to qualifying offer territory next year if he joins a team with a good, or at least a neutral, culture. He’s also right-handed with a palatable strikeout rate, and has offered to convert to second base. Any late inning heroics from him at Progressive Field will hit like a playoff win. What do you think? Should the Twins take a flier on their old rival? Sound off in the comments. View full article
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- tim anderson
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The White Sox just had one of the crummiest seasons you'll ever see. Given the results and future outlook, they may have still had a better year than the Angels, but we’re splitting hairs in that case. The Sox thought themselves contenders, and signed Mike Clevinger and Andrew Benintendi to decent-sized contracts. In fact, Benintendi’s was the largest free agent contract given out by the franchise in its history. Like the Twins going into 2023, the Sox figured that poor injury luck and underperforming their talent level in 2022 would course-correct into a contending season. Despite being less injured than the prior year, nothing went right from a performance, cohesion and soft skills standpoint. They lost 101 games, their PBO, GM and allegedly the entire clubhouse. They also lost Tim Anderson in more ways than one. He was their All-Star shortstop who up until this year played a decent shortstop while hitting .300 in his sleep. But in trying to play through an injury, his defense slipped and his hitting cratered, with only a single home run hit. He did manage to post 523 plate appearances. Speaking to MLB.com reporter Scott Merkin, Anderson offered the following assessment of 2023: A hitter's front leg is crucial to generating any sort of power. It's the same idea for golfers: the front leg acts as a brace so that the player can deliver the most force at the fullest extension without losing balance. So with an unstable lead leg, Anderson’s power dried up. His career average is 18 home runs per 162 games. We all know what happens to hitters that pitchers know can’t drive the ball. They bust them inside until they make a pitcher pay, which Anderson never really did. That is the easiest explanation as to Anderson’s fall off. The White Sox cut him a few weeks ago, declining a 14M option on his contract for 2024. I don’t know about you, but when I see the White Sox make a decision on something borderline, I make the assumption that they’re wrong. Anderson is a proud player, and Chicago is so dysfunctional that they turned that into a weakness. He played through an injury that everyone could tell was limiting him, and yet when the team was asked who their leaders were, all prominent players lowered their heads and pleaded the fifth. He got slapped by Yasmani Grandal when he criticized the catcher for skipping meetings. He then got punched out in front of the whole world by Jose Ramirez for daring to pull a Kent Hrbek on a young Guardians player the night before. He took the shot like a champ, and yet, the whole world renewed its adoration for Ramirez afterwards. Which struck me as weird, because Ramirez was the hostile actor in this case. He (or perhaps the entire Guardians clubhouse) is the one who took exception to the play the night before. He is the one who started jawing after a light tag on the butt from Anderson as he slid into second base. He was looking for some action, and although unbridled macho-ism is on the decline in baseball, it certainly reared its ugly head here. There was a thousand times more breathless coverage of Tom Hamilton’s radio call of the incident, than the fact that the face of the White Sox had been assaulted for the crime of trying to make some plays for a talented team that needed a big-time spark or seven. Anderson even got a longer suspension than Ramirez! (Also why are we in love with Ramirez when he's a hot head, chews tobacco, and left about 100M on the table to sign an extension with Cleveland. The MLBPA should hate this guy!) So let’s review: Anderson got hurt, and played through the injury. When that goes well, we call those players ‘warriors.” The clubhouse culture was clearly a problem. Anderson called out one of the worst perpetrators and got slapped. Rather than be lionized for his attempts to restore some order in Chicagoland, everyone just shrugged. He got punched and everyone took Jose Ramirez’s side. Anderson gave the White Sox 123 games despite being hurt, playing for a sorry team, and getting no support from seemingly anyone in the game. He could have lashed out. At the media, at the White Sox, at Ramirez. But he mostly stayed silent. Anderson has always been a head-down, focused and passionate player. If anyone stands a higher percent chance to rebound from the conditions they played in in 2023, it's Anderson (provided his knee is healthy next year). It would seem likely that Anderson will sign for a one year, 10M deal, or something similar. Perhaps he might want to join a division favorite with a shortstop used to being maligned by Twitter while he plays through an injury for almost an entire year. Maybe he might want to join a hard working clubhouse that would actually listen when he had something to say. The fit is not obvious in Minnesota. It would require the Twins to trade from their infield depth, although that is something they have indicated they will do. But beyond fit, it would seem to me that Anderson stands an excellent chance of getting to qualifying offer territory next year if he joins a team with a good, or at least a neutral, culture. He’s also right-handed with a palatable strikeout rate, and has offered to convert to second base. Any late inning heroics from him at Progressive Field will hit like a playoff win. What do you think? Should the Twins take a flier on their old rival? Sound off in the comments.
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Prospect Dilemma: Should the Twins Roll the Dice on a Pete Alonso Trade?
Hans Birkeland posted an article in Twins
The Twins have a real team here. However, they fell short against the Astros, outclassed in their ability to take a professional at-bat. In addition to replacing the likely departing Sonny Gray, the Twins will have to decide whether adding a middle-of-the-lineup bat is worth pursuing. They could, and perhaps should, decide to allow the needed offensive improvement to come from within. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin will hopefully steal at-bats away from whatever middling veterans the Twins sign/retain. They will get a full season from Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Byron Buxton might reemerge, and there isn’t much reason to doubt Carlos Correa’s track record. Maybe we’ll see more of catcher-OPS-leader Ryan Jeffers. Still, that doesn’t sound particularly imposing unless all of those players play to their 85th percentile or so of performance, while all staying healthy. So it might make sense to add an established, durable bat. The problem is, the Twins may not have any money to spend, given their uncertain TV-rights situation. So they would either need to drop significant salary by trading Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, or acquire a cheaper player that may cost a ransom in prospect capital from their middling farm system. Or maybe there is another way. Steve Cohen is still owner of the Mets, and may have a solution to the Twins conundrum that comes cheap salary-wise, while not costing their entire collection of top 100 prospects. The established bat in question is first baseman Pete Alonso. All five of his seasons have resulted in an OPS+ over 120. His lowest number of games played is 152 (he played 57 in 2020). His career platoon splits are separated by one hundredth of a percent. He has averaged 45 home runs per 162 games for his career, and while that may lead you to believe he is strikeout prone, that isn’t entirely true. His career strikeout rate is below the league average at 22.3% (vs 22.9% for the league). He has had multiple seasons in which he struck out under 20% of the time, pretty impressive for someone with that kind of power. Alonso will be 29 next year, in his final arbitration season. MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a hefty 22M salary. How would the cash-strapped Twins absorb that kind of salary? By trading away a prospect that catches Cohen’s eye. You see, Cohen is obsessed with building up his farm system, and has shown he is okay with throwing tens of millions of dollars to expedite the process, focusing on quality over quantity. He paid the Rangers 64M to take on the last year and a half of Max Scherzer’s contract in exchange for top prospect Luisangel Acuna, and the Astros got another 64M in exchange for Justin Verlander and their best prospect, Drew Gilbert. According to MLB.com, Gilbert ranks as the 52nd best overall prospect, while Acuna ranks 38th. In between them at 48th sits Emmanuel Rodriguez, the Twins’ third best prospect. It would seem to me that Cohen and his new PBO David Stearns, would be interested in acquiring a potential superstar slugger in Rodriguez in exchange for a player they don’t appear to be building around on an expiring salary. Chipping in 15M to make it happen would be pretty on brand, as well. Publicly, the Mets have expressed a desire to keep Alonso, however they were very direct towards Scherzer and Verlander in saying that 2024 will constitute a "competitive rebuild", leading to both pitchers agreeing to a trade. With Alonso a free agent in a year, he should be available. Rodriguez for one year of Alonso is still pretty risky. It's possible the “Polar Bear” would love playing for the Twins and be open to an extension a la Paul Goldschmidt with the Cardinals. But the reality is that any Alonso acquisition would likely be a one year pit stop for the slugger, while Rodriguez could debut as soon as 2024. And Rodriguez may be underrated at 48th best. Other publications have him ranked closer to the top 25, with immense power potential and elite strike zone recognition. His defense probably won’t be a major strength, but he runs pretty well and hit a huge grand slam in Cedar Rapids’ championship-clinching win a month ago. He’s been described as having a Max Muncy-type offensive profile, which paired with any sort of serviceable outfield defense and speed would be hugely valuable. But it probably means a batting average in the .210s, and that’s if things break right. If Rodriguez doesn’t adjust to the league and can’t get to his power, he’ll join a long list of failed power prospects who dominated the minor leagues but just had too many holes in their swing to thrive at the major league level. Brooks Lee is pretty much assured of being at least as good as, say, Gordon Beckham (terrible outcome, but rosterable), while Walker Jenkins could be Bryce Harper for all we know. We know prospects like Rodriguez flame out a lot, regardless of how great the farm system is. Some of the Muncy types make too little contact to matter, like the most recent iterations of Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo. Some guys are too passive at the plate, like the Twins were worried about with Edouard Julien. We also know the Twins have a somewhat similar player to Rodriguez in Matt Wallner, who has shown he can make at least some adjustments in the majors. To be clear, players like Rodriguez should be close to untouchable, but given the Mets' focus on stocking their minor league system with talent quickly, it might make more sense in this moment then it ever has to dangle him for a hitter like Alonso. What do you think? Would you pull the trigger on a trade like this one?- 38 comments
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- emmanuel rodriguez
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The Twins have a good roster, but with potentially very little money to spend, as they start preparing for 2024. The Mets happen to be owned by a fellow with a lot of money who loves dynamic outfield prospects. Could a trade of Emmanuel Rodriguez for Pete Alonso make sense? Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have a real team here. However, they fell short against the Astros, outclassed in their ability to take a professional at-bat. In addition to replacing the likely departing Sonny Gray, the Twins will have to decide whether adding a middle-of-the-lineup bat is worth pursuing. They could, and perhaps should, decide to allow the needed offensive improvement to come from within. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin will hopefully steal at-bats away from whatever middling veterans the Twins sign/retain. They will get a full season from Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Byron Buxton might reemerge, and there isn’t much reason to doubt Carlos Correa’s track record. Maybe we’ll see more of catcher-OPS-leader Ryan Jeffers. Still, that doesn’t sound particularly imposing unless all of those players play to their 85th percentile or so of performance, while all staying healthy. So it might make sense to add an established, durable bat. The problem is, the Twins may not have any money to spend, given their uncertain TV-rights situation. So they would either need to drop significant salary by trading Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, or acquire a cheaper player that may cost a ransom in prospect capital from their middling farm system. Or maybe there is another way. Steve Cohen is still owner of the Mets, and may have a solution to the Twins conundrum that comes cheap salary-wise, while not costing their entire collection of top 100 prospects. The established bat in question is first baseman Pete Alonso. All five of his seasons have resulted in an OPS+ over 120. His lowest number of games played is 152 (he played 57 in 2020). His career platoon splits are separated by one hundredth of a percent. He has averaged 45 home runs per 162 games for his career, and while that may lead you to believe he is strikeout prone, that isn’t entirely true. His career strikeout rate is below the league average at 22.3% (vs 22.9% for the league). He has had multiple seasons in which he struck out under 20% of the time, pretty impressive for someone with that kind of power. Alonso will be 29 next year, in his final arbitration season. MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a hefty 22M salary. How would the cash-strapped Twins absorb that kind of salary? By trading away a prospect that catches Cohen’s eye. You see, Cohen is obsessed with building up his farm system, and has shown he is okay with throwing tens of millions of dollars to expedite the process, focusing on quality over quantity. He paid the Rangers 64M to take on the last year and a half of Max Scherzer’s contract in exchange for top prospect Luisangel Acuna, and the Astros got another 64M in exchange for Justin Verlander and their best prospect, Drew Gilbert. According to MLB.com, Gilbert ranks as the 52nd best overall prospect, while Acuna ranks 38th. In between them at 48th sits Emmanuel Rodriguez, the Twins’ third best prospect. It would seem to me that Cohen and his new PBO David Stearns, would be interested in acquiring a potential superstar slugger in Rodriguez in exchange for a player they don’t appear to be building around on an expiring salary. Chipping in 15M to make it happen would be pretty on brand, as well. Publicly, the Mets have expressed a desire to keep Alonso, however they were very direct towards Scherzer and Verlander in saying that 2024 will constitute a "competitive rebuild", leading to both pitchers agreeing to a trade. With Alonso a free agent in a year, he should be available. Rodriguez for one year of Alonso is still pretty risky. It's possible the “Polar Bear” would love playing for the Twins and be open to an extension a la Paul Goldschmidt with the Cardinals. But the reality is that any Alonso acquisition would likely be a one year pit stop for the slugger, while Rodriguez could debut as soon as 2024. And Rodriguez may be underrated at 48th best. Other publications have him ranked closer to the top 25, with immense power potential and elite strike zone recognition. His defense probably won’t be a major strength, but he runs pretty well and hit a huge grand slam in Cedar Rapids’ championship-clinching win a month ago. He’s been described as having a Max Muncy-type offensive profile, which paired with any sort of serviceable outfield defense and speed would be hugely valuable. But it probably means a batting average in the .210s, and that’s if things break right. If Rodriguez doesn’t adjust to the league and can’t get to his power, he’ll join a long list of failed power prospects who dominated the minor leagues but just had too many holes in their swing to thrive at the major league level. Brooks Lee is pretty much assured of being at least as good as, say, Gordon Beckham (terrible outcome, but rosterable), while Walker Jenkins could be Bryce Harper for all we know. We know prospects like Rodriguez flame out a lot, regardless of how great the farm system is. Some of the Muncy types make too little contact to matter, like the most recent iterations of Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo. Some guys are too passive at the plate, like the Twins were worried about with Edouard Julien. We also know the Twins have a somewhat similar player to Rodriguez in Matt Wallner, who has shown he can make at least some adjustments in the majors. To be clear, players like Rodriguez should be close to untouchable, but given the Mets' focus on stocking their minor league system with talent quickly, it might make more sense in this moment then it ever has to dangle him for a hitter like Alonso. What do you think? Would you pull the trigger on a trade like this one? View full article
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My feeling is that the analytical side will cover what needs to be covered. Lewis and Correa were ready for the moment in a way that isn't quantifiable.
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The Twins fell short in the postseason, mainly due to a lack of hitting. Some players stepped up and established themselves as playoff threats, and others wilted under the pressure. Will the lineup be able to take the next step in 2024? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports In 2023, the conversation for the Twins in the playoffs finally changed. There were media outlets in September suggesting it would be good for the five seed to “tank” in order to face three-seeded Minnesota in the Wild Card round since “bulletin board material” didn’t apply to such a cursed franchise. But no longer can the Twins’ chances be reduced to a hand wave and a chuckle – they won as many games as they lost, including nearly handing the Astros a loss in the ALDS for the first time since the Obama administration. Now the conversation has to be (as with all playoff teams) what the Twins need in order to go further in 2024. They didn’t hit much against the Astros (or the Blue Jays for that matter), with a number of their hitters failing to eclipse the .600 mark in OPS for the two rounds. However, we did see evidence of a few guys who could terrify future playoff opponents by virtue of what they did in October 2023. Edouard Julien: He drew five walks in the six games, with three extra base hits and zero errors/misplays on defense. His OPS for the playoffs was a stout 1.043. He did make two baserunning errors, one ghastly (game one of the ALDS), and one a product of bad luck (game four). Julien showed that his blend of power and patience will play in the postseason. His home run and double in game four gave the Twins some life, and his pinch-hit, bases loaded, two-out single in game two sealed a win. He is a playoff caliber leadoff hitter. Royce Lewis: He posted an OPS over 1.100 in the playoffs, with four home runs that put him on the precipice of setting the Twins’ all-time playoff record. After six games. He appeared to press at times, swinging at some spiked breaking balls in crucial moments, but he’s also played in only 76 career games to this point, including the playoffs. Seeing more pitchers and how they attack him should make him even more of a threat next October. Carlos Correa: He also eclipsed a 1.000 OPS, and threw in some of the savviest shortstop play I have ever seen with his pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and deke of Jose Abreu. His performance sealed his reputation as a known quantity in the playoffs, regardless of how his regular season goes. In 2020, he posted an OPS lower than what he posted in 2023 sans any plantar fasciitis issues. In the playoffs he hit for a 1.209 OPS and six home runs in twelve games that year. That isn’t to say he is automatic in the playoffs, but he will be ready. Jorge Polanco: This one is borderline. Polanco’s .653 2023 playoff OPS doesn’t stand out, except when you compare it to the rest of the Twins’ lineup. He drew four walks and popped a key three-run home run in game one of the ALDS that drew a collective gulp from everyone in the stadium that day. Polanco has proven he can hit in the playoffs. He was one of the few players to show up for the 2019 ALDS, hitting a first inning homer in game one, then tying the game with a single in the fifth. His defense is another matter. He went about 1-4 in fielding chances against Toronto and the specter of his missed flip in 2020 still haunts me to this day. Outside of those hitters and Kyle Farmer, the rest of the position player group didn’t inspire much confidence. Playoff pitching just doesn’t compare to the regular season. It rewards superstars (Yordan Alvarez) and guys who play within themselves (Martin Maldonado). It can be hard to identify who will play the Jason Kubel (1-29 career in the postseason) role in a given playoff series, and the Twins had a few this year. Chief among those was Ryan Jeffers. Outside of two hits in game one of the ALDS, Jeffers contributed nothing offensively. Two walks and a lot of strikeouts. He hit some balls hard, but he also made you wonder if keeping the playoff-tested Christian Vazquez on the bench for every game was the right move. Watching Vazquez’s at-bats down the stretch compared to Jeffers’ catcher-leading OPS made it a justifiable decision, but giving Vazquez a start or two may have butterfly-effected an extra scoring opportunity. We’ll never know. Matt Wallner went hitless in twelve plate appearances for the playoffs, although he did contribute three walks and a key hit-by-pitch. His inability to make contact against jumpy fastballs was exposed, and he’ll have to work and adjust in order to avoid a reputation as a mistake crusher who wilts against good pitching. Max Kepler was victimized by two terrible strike three calls against Houston, and he did collect a hit in his first five games of the playoffs. But even at his best, Kepler isn’t a cleanup hitter for a serious playoff lineup. He struck out 14 times in the six games and was worth -1.6% cWPA (championship win probability added) against the Astros. As a seven hole hitter, his skill set would play a lot better. Alex Kirilloff was playing through a torn labrum in his lead hitting shoulder, and performed as such. He is a little jumpy at the plate, even when healthy (taking strikes, then swinging at balls). But his elite plate coverage and all-fields power could be a major asset on future playoff teams. Now, having only three hitters clicking at the same time can certainly play in the playoffs. The 2019 Nationals provided proof of that concept with Juan Soto, Howie Kendrick and Anthony Rendon delivering a World Series championship that year. But ideally, you would want more lineup depth than that. Wallner has shown an ability to make adjustments, Jeffers has shown an ability to hit good pitching, Byron Buxton is always a wild card, and Kirilloff has shown the skill set to succeed in October. But if the front office doesn’t add another big bat this offseason, that may be a decision they could come to regret, especially given that the pitching will be hard-pressed to match this year's production. What do you think? Is the projected 2024 lineup good enough to take the next step as is, or does it need another piece? Sound off in the comments. View full article
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In 2023, the conversation for the Twins in the playoffs finally changed. There were media outlets in September suggesting it would be good for the five seed to “tank” in order to face three-seeded Minnesota in the Wild Card round since “bulletin board material” didn’t apply to such a cursed franchise. But no longer can the Twins’ chances be reduced to a hand wave and a chuckle – they won as many games as they lost, including nearly handing the Astros a loss in the ALDS for the first time since the Obama administration. Now the conversation has to be (as with all playoff teams) what the Twins need in order to go further in 2024. They didn’t hit much against the Astros (or the Blue Jays for that matter), with a number of their hitters failing to eclipse the .600 mark in OPS for the two rounds. However, we did see evidence of a few guys who could terrify future playoff opponents by virtue of what they did in October 2023. Edouard Julien: He drew five walks in the six games, with three extra base hits and zero errors/misplays on defense. His OPS for the playoffs was a stout 1.043. He did make two baserunning errors, one ghastly (game one of the ALDS), and one a product of bad luck (game four). Julien showed that his blend of power and patience will play in the postseason. His home run and double in game four gave the Twins some life, and his pinch-hit, bases loaded, two-out single in game two sealed a win. He is a playoff caliber leadoff hitter. Royce Lewis: He posted an OPS over 1.100 in the playoffs, with four home runs that put him on the precipice of setting the Twins’ all-time playoff record. After six games. He appeared to press at times, swinging at some spiked breaking balls in crucial moments, but he’s also played in only 76 career games to this point, including the playoffs. Seeing more pitchers and how they attack him should make him even more of a threat next October. Carlos Correa: He also eclipsed a 1.000 OPS, and threw in some of the savviest shortstop play I have ever seen with his pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and deke of Jose Abreu. His performance sealed his reputation as a known quantity in the playoffs, regardless of how his regular season goes. In 2020, he posted an OPS lower than what he posted in 2023 sans any plantar fasciitis issues. In the playoffs he hit for a 1.209 OPS and six home runs in twelve games that year. That isn’t to say he is automatic in the playoffs, but he will be ready. Jorge Polanco: This one is borderline. Polanco’s .653 2023 playoff OPS doesn’t stand out, except when you compare it to the rest of the Twins’ lineup. He drew four walks and popped a key three-run home run in game one of the ALDS that drew a collective gulp from everyone in the stadium that day. Polanco has proven he can hit in the playoffs. He was one of the few players to show up for the 2019 ALDS, hitting a first inning homer in game one, then tying the game with a single in the fifth. His defense is another matter. He went about 1-4 in fielding chances against Toronto and the specter of his missed flip in 2020 still haunts me to this day. Outside of those hitters and Kyle Farmer, the rest of the position player group didn’t inspire much confidence. Playoff pitching just doesn’t compare to the regular season. It rewards superstars (Yordan Alvarez) and guys who play within themselves (Martin Maldonado). It can be hard to identify who will play the Jason Kubel (1-29 career in the postseason) role in a given playoff series, and the Twins had a few this year. Chief among those was Ryan Jeffers. Outside of two hits in game one of the ALDS, Jeffers contributed nothing offensively. Two walks and a lot of strikeouts. He hit some balls hard, but he also made you wonder if keeping the playoff-tested Christian Vazquez on the bench for every game was the right move. Watching Vazquez’s at-bats down the stretch compared to Jeffers’ catcher-leading OPS made it a justifiable decision, but giving Vazquez a start or two may have butterfly-effected an extra scoring opportunity. We’ll never know. Matt Wallner went hitless in twelve plate appearances for the playoffs, although he did contribute three walks and a key hit-by-pitch. His inability to make contact against jumpy fastballs was exposed, and he’ll have to work and adjust in order to avoid a reputation as a mistake crusher who wilts against good pitching. Max Kepler was victimized by two terrible strike three calls against Houston, and he did collect a hit in his first five games of the playoffs. But even at his best, Kepler isn’t a cleanup hitter for a serious playoff lineup. He struck out 14 times in the six games and was worth -1.6% cWPA (championship win probability added) against the Astros. As a seven hole hitter, his skill set would play a lot better. Alex Kirilloff was playing through a torn labrum in his lead hitting shoulder, and performed as such. He is a little jumpy at the plate, even when healthy (taking strikes, then swinging at balls). But his elite plate coverage and all-fields power could be a major asset on future playoff teams. Now, having only three hitters clicking at the same time can certainly play in the playoffs. The 2019 Nationals provided proof of that concept with Juan Soto, Howie Kendrick and Anthony Rendon delivering a World Series championship that year. But ideally, you would want more lineup depth than that. Wallner has shown an ability to make adjustments, Jeffers has shown an ability to hit good pitching, Byron Buxton is always a wild card, and Kirilloff has shown the skill set to succeed in October. But if the front office doesn’t add another big bat this offseason, that may be a decision they could come to regret, especially given that the pitching will be hard-pressed to match this year's production. What do you think? Is the projected 2024 lineup good enough to take the next step as is, or does it need another piece? Sound off in the comments.
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The Top 13 Home Runs of the Twins 2023 Season
Hans Birkeland replied to Peter Labuza's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I really liked the August 24th home run Jeffers hit against the Rangers. Completed the comeback, he was prepping against Will Smith's slider, Mitch Garver was really salty about it. But I have no qualms going with the one he hit against Abreu in Houston. I said out loud at the time that was the worst possible matchup Jeffers could face and them bam we steal the game. I think Abreu has given up 3-4 runs since that time.- 8 replies
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Second best team in the second half, third best by playoff results. Its not how you start its how you finish.
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It feels odd to say, but his managing moves have largely worked, and his team broke the most exhausting streak in sports. Most of the criticisms he's faced are unfounded. Could Rocco Baldelli actually be an asset as manager? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports One thing to know about baseball fans is that they all hold the firm belief that their team’s manager is terrible and holding their team back from limitless success. Plenty of Yankees fans hate Aaron Boone, thinking he’s too soft on his players. Blue Jays fans think John Schneider is too beholden to analytics. Astros fans think Dusty Baker is too beholden to Martin Maldonado. Even Guardians fans liked to roast Terry "Tito" Francona for insisting on playing Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher and Amed Rosario. Torey Lovullo and Dave Roberts? Bad in-game moves. Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell? Patsies for the front office. And a vocal (at least on social media) segment of Twins fandom think that Rocco Baldelli is complete trash. They think he focuses too much on analytics, resulting in an over-reliance on platoon matchups, and quick hooks for his starters. It doesn’t seem to matter much that Twins starters were second in baseball in innings pitched. It doesn’t seem to matter that the Twins' use of platoons in the second half likely saved their season. For the year the Twins ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ for pinch hitters, including being third in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+ in the second half. They were also third in hitting lefties during the second half. It also doesn’t seem to matter that Baldelli has altered his approach to match his personnel: In 2022, with a flammable pitching staff that struggled across the board to pitch effective innings deep in games, Twins starters ranked 20th in innings pitched. In 2019 with the bomba squad, the Twins had the eighth fewest pinch hitters. In 2023, with guys like Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien all major liabilities against lefties, the Twins had the third most pinch hitters. Fans criticize Baldelli for Twins hitters striking out too much, not hitting situationally, and not bunting to move runners over. The truth is that the Twins ranked eleventh in baseball in bunt hits, with 13, and 19th in sacrifice bunts, with twelve. This despite an offense that led the American League in home runs. More importantly, they also ranked fourth in wRC+ with runners in scoring position. The strikeouts were historically high, and contributed to Houston pitching shutting them down in games three and four of the ALDS, but for one, Baldelli wasn’t telling them to do that. Two, when the Twins were struggling offensively in the first half, their strikeout rate was 26.8%, most in baseball. In the second half, when the Twins were the third most productive offense in baseball, their strikeout rate was 26.4%. And three, it is on the front office to add more contact to the lineup in 2024, but they don’t have to do much. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo are free agents and struck out 33.5% and 42.8% of the time respectively, both incredibly high numbers. The Twins young hitters can hopefully improve, particularly Wallner and Julien. And the reinforcements at Triple A, Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, struck out 16% and 16.3%, respectively. The team that Carlos Correa compares this team to, the 2015 Astros, had the second highest strikeout rate in baseball that year. I don't have to tell you how it's gone since then. The main takeaway I have about Baldelli is that his team ended the playoff futility streak. You can claim that the team won despite him, but the reality is that the streak presented more of a mental challenge than any sort of game strategy hurdles (Although he graded out pretty well there, too). For 19 years, the Twins played tight in the playoffs. They started that way this year, too. Game 1 of the Wild Card series began with Kirilloff whiffing on a foul ball, then Jorge Polanco making a throwing error to the same batter. But from that point on, the Twins were solid defensively, played smart, and although their hitting wasn’t great, they got the W. And then two more. Players did not criticize Baldelli at any point, even when they were at their lowest in May and June. Sonny Gray was rumored to be miffed about Baldelli removing him from games before he wanted to, but he pitched his most innings since 2015. It has been reported that he wants to return, as well. Joe Ryan had opportunity to blast Baldelli and the coaching staff for removing him after two innings on Wednesday, but he didn’t. He understood that the best chance the Twins had to win that game was to throw all of their high-octane relievers, and not only did the Twins hold Houston to three runs, they didn’t allow any add-on runs after Jose Abreu’s home run in the fourth. If you have watched any Twins postseason games in the past 22 years, you know that may be a first. Baldelli won division titles his first two years. In 2021, Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colome made sure there wouldn’t be a three-peat. In 2022, the team entered the trade deadline fairly healthy and leading the division. Then 19 players went down with season-ending injuries. The Twins made noise for the first time in decades these past few weeks, and some credit has to go to Baldelli. It’s hard to quantify, but I’ll try. Being considered an elite manager is part luck, part pure longevity and part skill. And you either need a lot of skill or a lot of luck to reach the longevity part. It took Bruce Bochy winning a championship in 2010 before he was given credit for pulling the right strings and uniting clubhouses. After 16 years of managing. Francona ended the Red Sox curse his first year on the job, so he was playing with house money. That made it easier to believe that his players loved him and would run through brick walls for him. Brandon Hyde took his Orioles through an entire rebuild. Most of the time, managers that lead rebuilding clubs are replaced once the team gets good (poor Rick Renteria). Hyde was allowed to see his team through to success, and now is regarded as a manager of the year candidate. Whether his newfound reputation as a hard nosed but smart manager is due to opportunity, or due to merit, is impossible to know. Baldelli is polished and professional to the media, but an uncouth New Englander behind the scenes. Gabe Kapler in the streets, Tommy Lasorda in the sheets, if you will. Time after time, when pressed about what caused the turnaround this season, players referred to an energetic, close-knit clubhouse where guys were communicative and accountable (compare that to the White Sox clubhouse). That’s on Baldelli. Sure the personnel was responsible for the offense coming to life in the second half. But Wallner, Julien and Royce Lewis were still rookies, and it takes a certain vibe to get young players acclimated to the big leagues quickly and productively. That’s partly on veterans like Kyle Farmer, Kepler, Gray and Correa creating that atmosphere. But keeping veterans bought in and happy with their situation, even if they aren’t playing as much as they would like, is on Baldelli. There’s also what he didn’t do. Baldelli never lashed out at the media, he never threw his players under the bus (except once for Kepler, but that tactic had the desired effect), and he never gave away game plans or strategies other teams could exploit. He also has had zero off-the-field issues. His players never showed him up, and the main criticisms he faced were from the very nuanced gang over at SKOR North trying to drive up engagement by citing the same disproven tropes I mentioned earlier. It’s still possible that Baldelli is more of a neutral-ish manager overall, but one more division title and a little more playoff noise in 2024 (his sixth year as manager) will cement him as not just an asset, but a franchise-altering presence. If that happens, we should worry less about who wants him fired, and more about him jumping ship for a higher-profile job somewhere else. When was the last time that was a possibility? View full article
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One thing to know about baseball fans is that they all hold the firm belief that their team’s manager is terrible and holding their team back from limitless success. Plenty of Yankees fans hate Aaron Boone, thinking he’s too soft on his players. Blue Jays fans think John Schneider is too beholden to analytics. Astros fans think Dusty Baker is too beholden to Martin Maldonado. Even Guardians fans liked to roast Terry "Tito" Francona for insisting on playing Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher and Amed Rosario. Torey Lovullo and Dave Roberts? Bad in-game moves. Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell? Patsies for the front office. And a vocal (at least on social media) segment of Twins fandom think that Rocco Baldelli is complete trash. They think he focuses too much on analytics, resulting in an over-reliance on platoon matchups, and quick hooks for his starters. It doesn’t seem to matter much that Twins starters were second in baseball in innings pitched. It doesn’t seem to matter that the Twins' use of platoons in the second half likely saved their season. For the year the Twins ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ for pinch hitters, including being third in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+ in the second half. They were also third in hitting lefties during the second half. It also doesn’t seem to matter that Baldelli has altered his approach to match his personnel: In 2022, with a flammable pitching staff that struggled across the board to pitch effective innings deep in games, Twins starters ranked 20th in innings pitched. In 2019 with the bomba squad, the Twins had the eighth fewest pinch hitters. In 2023, with guys like Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien all major liabilities against lefties, the Twins had the third most pinch hitters. Fans criticize Baldelli for Twins hitters striking out too much, not hitting situationally, and not bunting to move runners over. The truth is that the Twins ranked eleventh in baseball in bunt hits, with 13, and 19th in sacrifice bunts, with twelve. This despite an offense that led the American League in home runs. More importantly, they also ranked fourth in wRC+ with runners in scoring position. The strikeouts were historically high, and contributed to Houston pitching shutting them down in games three and four of the ALDS, but for one, Baldelli wasn’t telling them to do that. Two, when the Twins were struggling offensively in the first half, their strikeout rate was 26.8%, most in baseball. In the second half, when the Twins were the third most productive offense in baseball, their strikeout rate was 26.4%. And three, it is on the front office to add more contact to the lineup in 2024, but they don’t have to do much. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo are free agents and struck out 33.5% and 42.8% of the time respectively, both incredibly high numbers. The Twins young hitters can hopefully improve, particularly Wallner and Julien. And the reinforcements at Triple A, Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, struck out 16% and 16.3%, respectively. The team that Carlos Correa compares this team to, the 2015 Astros, had the second highest strikeout rate in baseball that year. I don't have to tell you how it's gone since then. The main takeaway I have about Baldelli is that his team ended the playoff futility streak. You can claim that the team won despite him, but the reality is that the streak presented more of a mental challenge than any sort of game strategy hurdles (Although he graded out pretty well there, too). For 19 years, the Twins played tight in the playoffs. They started that way this year, too. Game 1 of the Wild Card series began with Kirilloff whiffing on a foul ball, then Jorge Polanco making a throwing error to the same batter. But from that point on, the Twins were solid defensively, played smart, and although their hitting wasn’t great, they got the W. And then two more. Players did not criticize Baldelli at any point, even when they were at their lowest in May and June. Sonny Gray was rumored to be miffed about Baldelli removing him from games before he wanted to, but he pitched his most innings since 2015. It has been reported that he wants to return, as well. Joe Ryan had opportunity to blast Baldelli and the coaching staff for removing him after two innings on Wednesday, but he didn’t. He understood that the best chance the Twins had to win that game was to throw all of their high-octane relievers, and not only did the Twins hold Houston to three runs, they didn’t allow any add-on runs after Jose Abreu’s home run in the fourth. If you have watched any Twins postseason games in the past 22 years, you know that may be a first. Baldelli won division titles his first two years. In 2021, Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colome made sure there wouldn’t be a three-peat. In 2022, the team entered the trade deadline fairly healthy and leading the division. Then 19 players went down with season-ending injuries. The Twins made noise for the first time in decades these past few weeks, and some credit has to go to Baldelli. It’s hard to quantify, but I’ll try. Being considered an elite manager is part luck, part pure longevity and part skill. And you either need a lot of skill or a lot of luck to reach the longevity part. It took Bruce Bochy winning a championship in 2010 before he was given credit for pulling the right strings and uniting clubhouses. After 16 years of managing. Francona ended the Red Sox curse his first year on the job, so he was playing with house money. That made it easier to believe that his players loved him and would run through brick walls for him. Brandon Hyde took his Orioles through an entire rebuild. Most of the time, managers that lead rebuilding clubs are replaced once the team gets good (poor Rick Renteria). Hyde was allowed to see his team through to success, and now is regarded as a manager of the year candidate. Whether his newfound reputation as a hard nosed but smart manager is due to opportunity, or due to merit, is impossible to know. Baldelli is polished and professional to the media, but an uncouth New Englander behind the scenes. Gabe Kapler in the streets, Tommy Lasorda in the sheets, if you will. Time after time, when pressed about what caused the turnaround this season, players referred to an energetic, close-knit clubhouse where guys were communicative and accountable (compare that to the White Sox clubhouse). That’s on Baldelli. Sure the personnel was responsible for the offense coming to life in the second half. But Wallner, Julien and Royce Lewis were still rookies, and it takes a certain vibe to get young players acclimated to the big leagues quickly and productively. That’s partly on veterans like Kyle Farmer, Kepler, Gray and Correa creating that atmosphere. But keeping veterans bought in and happy with their situation, even if they aren’t playing as much as they would like, is on Baldelli. There’s also what he didn’t do. Baldelli never lashed out at the media, he never threw his players under the bus (except once for Kepler, but that tactic had the desired effect), and he never gave away game plans or strategies other teams could exploit. He also has had zero off-the-field issues. His players never showed him up, and the main criticisms he faced were from the very nuanced gang over at SKOR North trying to drive up engagement by citing the same disproven tropes I mentioned earlier. It’s still possible that Baldelli is more of a neutral-ish manager overall, but one more division title and a little more playoff noise in 2024 (his sixth year as manager) will cement him as not just an asset, but a franchise-altering presence. If that happens, we should worry less about who wants him fired, and more about him jumping ship for a higher-profile job somewhere else. When was the last time that was a possibility?
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Just wanted to point out, the Braves 9th inning rally fell short last night with Pillar, Rosario and Grissom all having non-competitive at-bats to end their season.
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- walker jenkins
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Good point, and honestly at full strength I think I would prefer the Rays over the Braves. The way they had half of their roster get injured and still play well down the stretch was pretty impressive and underscores how they are better built to withstand adversity than Atlanta, which is built to withstand none. If only Tampa remembered they were a good defensive team against Texas.
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Everyone loves exalting the virtues of the Atlanta Braves championship core. But it won't last as long as you think, and the Twins have built a roster about 90% as good, that is cheaper and potentially more sustainable. Image courtesy of Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports The Atlanta Braves are the class of MLB right now, and the breathless admiration of them from those in the game and those who analyze will continue whether you like it or not. The Braves tied the 2019 Twins home run record of 307 and have steamrolled the competition, including a decisive sweep of the Twins in June. They possess the best record in baseball and have all the underlying numbers to back it up. Don’t misunderstand me; they are really good. But how did they build this? A key aspect of their success is their penchant for extending star core players early in their career to team-friendly extensions. Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Spencer Strider and Sean Murphy are all excellent players under the age of thirty and will be with the team through at least 2028. None of those contracts have turned into regrets, either (so far) like the contracts for Evan White, Jon Singleton, or even Randy Dobnak did. Max Fried and Strider lead the rotation, and are great development stories. Bryce Elder is too, but their strength isn’t pitching, and they don’t have much beyond those three and Morton. That isn’t the worst thing; two aces and two mid rotation guys will play fine in October, and their team ERA is still a respectable 14th in baseball. So what makes the Brave's core precarious, and why do the Twins have a chance to supplant them in as the next homegrown powerhouse? Depth The Braves are top-heavy in both the pitching and hitting departments. No one has noticed on the hitting side because none of their players are hurt. Almost ever. Carlos Correa leads the Twins with 135 games played, which is solid considering his foot issues. The next highest is Donovan Solano with 127. All eight of the Braves non-catchers have played 130 games or more. And all of them, plus their great catching core, are healthy and available for the playoffs. That’s absurd, bordering on the absurdity of the Cleveland Guardians and their nearly injury-free 2022 season. Should anyone get hurt, Nicky Lopez and Kevin Pillar are their only options. The Braves also have the 27th ranked farm system according to MLB Pipeline and they already have $174 million committed to next year’s payroll, not counting arbitration salaries (about $80 million more than the Twins). Their only top 100 prospect is pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver, who is 20 and made it to the majors this year. If he isn’t great right away, Max Fried heads to free agency after next year, leaving Strider and the unproven Elder. Maybe Kyle Wright can return to form (he will miss 2024 rehabbing an injury). And what should occur if somehow one of their hitters actually deals with a significant injury (or underperformance)? There is no “next man up” outside of Vaughn Grissom, who is a decent prospect but probably can’t handle shortstop, where they are already playing Orlando Arcia and his career .681 OPS. What they are now, is what they are. Grissom also represents the best trade piece the Braves could use to acquire frontline starting pitching, which they may need as soon as this offseason. If he goes, Nicky Lopez steps in. The Twins have a multitude of A and B level prospects they could flip for pitching if they really needed to. Comparing Cores More credit should go towards the Twins front office for building a core similar to the Braves, but for less money and hardly any fanfare. It should last through the Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton contracts since most of the Twins contributors are making the minimum MLB salary. And although those team-friendly extensions could save the Braves some money, none of those players have hit six years of service time yet. They would still be controllable through this year with only Olson and Albies set to hit free agency this offseason had the Braves gone year to year. Let's compare the infielders each team has assembled for the future. The Twins have Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, and Brooks Lee, with Austin Martin and Jose Miranda as high upside depth pieces. They also signed Carlos Correa. They’ve traded away homegrown talents Luis Arraez, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, too. The Braves have Riley, Olson, Albies, Arcia and Grissom. I'm not saying the Twins can bang with that group as currently constructed, but they have a lot more options if things go wrong (they do). Are the Braves infielders durable and capable of producing great counting stats? Sure. But that has very little predictive value and those 155 game seasons add up quickly in terms of health and performance. In the outfield, the Twins have Matt Wallner, Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins (with Buxton once in a while), all system-developed. The Braves have two homegrown (and great) outfielders in Harris and Acuna Jr., but you have to scroll a bit on their prospect lists to even find another hitter, much less an outfielder. Nobody matches Acuna, but in Jenkins and Lewis the Twins at least have some hope to develop a generational superstar of their own. To Extend or not Extend The Twins have the opportunity to extend, Braves-style, some of those players, but as luck would have it, none of them are set to become free agents until after the 2027 season. They could lock up guys like Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, Julien and Lewis, but only Jeffers will even reach three years of service time when the season is over. They have some time to decide who to commit to long-term, and who, like the Braves with Dansby Swanson, they decide to just go year to year with. Right now, every extension the Braves have handed out has worked flawlessly. But as I mentioned earlier, none of those contracts has entered into the years of potential free agency yet. It is those "bonus" years that will prove the extensions either smart, or disastrous. Consider the Twins' extensions of Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Their respective performance and health have been up and down, but the contracts they signed only really kicked in this year. Had they been up for free agency last offseason, as they were on track for originally, would the Twins have even offered them a qualifying offer? Probably not, but these things are tricky; Polanco and Kepler have been integral parts of the Twins' second half surge this year. Contrast that to Riley's contract. He would have been team controlled for two more years after this one, but with his massive contract (ten years, 212M), they are now locked into the next nine years, whether he remains effective or not. The Twins haven't proven much of anything yet, but they have seven homegrown players who could start on any playoff team, Correa, star-caliber depth in the minor leagues, and some (though not a lot) payroll space to supplement. The Braves are still good, I promise that I believe that. They have the star power to go 11-0 this October and would wipe the floor with the Twins in a playoff matchup currently. The greater point, is that the Twins have really built something here. Some draft luck played a part, as talents like Lee and Jenkins should not have been available to a contending club. But here we are, with potential/actual star position players as far as the eye can see, and a decent rotation floor with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober all team-controlled for at least the next four years. Not only that, but unlike the Braves lineup, there are backup plans if things go south. Correa may continue to have foot issues, some of the Twins prospects will flame out, and injuries will always be a factor, but you have to like the Twins chances to feel confident in an assortment of plan B's. The Braves have won six straight division titles; the Twins should be able to follow suit in the Central. View full article
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Build a Team Like the Braves? The Twins Already Did (Sorta)
Hans Birkeland posted an article in Twins
The Atlanta Braves are the class of MLB right now, and the breathless admiration of them from those in the game and those who analyze will continue whether you like it or not. The Braves tied the 2019 Twins home run record of 307 and have steamrolled the competition, including a decisive sweep of the Twins in June. They possess the best record in baseball and have all the underlying numbers to back it up. Don’t misunderstand me; they are really good. But how did they build this? A key aspect of their success is their penchant for extending star core players early in their career to team-friendly extensions. Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Spencer Strider and Sean Murphy are all excellent players under the age of thirty and will be with the team through at least 2028. None of those contracts have turned into regrets, either (so far) like the contracts for Evan White, Jon Singleton, or even Randy Dobnak did. Max Fried and Strider lead the rotation, and are great development stories. Bryce Elder is too, but their strength isn’t pitching, and they don’t have much beyond those three and Morton. That isn’t the worst thing; two aces and two mid rotation guys will play fine in October, and their team ERA is still a respectable 14th in baseball. So what makes the Brave's core precarious, and why do the Twins have a chance to supplant them in as the next homegrown powerhouse? Depth The Braves are top-heavy in both the pitching and hitting departments. No one has noticed on the hitting side because none of their players are hurt. Almost ever. Carlos Correa leads the Twins with 135 games played, which is solid considering his foot issues. The next highest is Donovan Solano with 127. All eight of the Braves non-catchers have played 130 games or more. And all of them, plus their great catching core, are healthy and available for the playoffs. That’s absurd, bordering on the absurdity of the Cleveland Guardians and their nearly injury-free 2022 season. Should anyone get hurt, Nicky Lopez and Kevin Pillar are their only options. The Braves also have the 27th ranked farm system according to MLB Pipeline and they already have $174 million committed to next year’s payroll, not counting arbitration salaries (about $80 million more than the Twins). Their only top 100 prospect is pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver, who is 20 and made it to the majors this year. If he isn’t great right away, Max Fried heads to free agency after next year, leaving Strider and the unproven Elder. Maybe Kyle Wright can return to form (he will miss 2024 rehabbing an injury). And what should occur if somehow one of their hitters actually deals with a significant injury (or underperformance)? There is no “next man up” outside of Vaughn Grissom, who is a decent prospect but probably can’t handle shortstop, where they are already playing Orlando Arcia and his career .681 OPS. What they are now, is what they are. Grissom also represents the best trade piece the Braves could use to acquire frontline starting pitching, which they may need as soon as this offseason. If he goes, Nicky Lopez steps in. The Twins have a multitude of A and B level prospects they could flip for pitching if they really needed to. Comparing Cores More credit should go towards the Twins front office for building a core similar to the Braves, but for less money and hardly any fanfare. It should last through the Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton contracts since most of the Twins contributors are making the minimum MLB salary. And although those team-friendly extensions could save the Braves some money, none of those players have hit six years of service time yet. They would still be controllable through this year with only Olson and Albies set to hit free agency this offseason had the Braves gone year to year. Let's compare the infielders each team has assembled for the future. The Twins have Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, and Brooks Lee, with Austin Martin and Jose Miranda as high upside depth pieces. They also signed Carlos Correa. They’ve traded away homegrown talents Luis Arraez, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, too. The Braves have Riley, Olson, Albies, Arcia and Grissom. I'm not saying the Twins can bang with that group as currently constructed, but they have a lot more options if things go wrong (they do). Are the Braves infielders durable and capable of producing great counting stats? Sure. But that has very little predictive value and those 155 game seasons add up quickly in terms of health and performance. In the outfield, the Twins have Matt Wallner, Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins (with Buxton once in a while), all system-developed. The Braves have two homegrown (and great) outfielders in Harris and Acuna Jr., but you have to scroll a bit on their prospect lists to even find another hitter, much less an outfielder. Nobody matches Acuna, but in Jenkins and Lewis the Twins at least have some hope to develop a generational superstar of their own. To Extend or not Extend The Twins have the opportunity to extend, Braves-style, some of those players, but as luck would have it, none of them are set to become free agents until after the 2027 season. They could lock up guys like Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, Julien and Lewis, but only Jeffers will even reach three years of service time when the season is over. They have some time to decide who to commit to long-term, and who, like the Braves with Dansby Swanson, they decide to just go year to year with. Right now, every extension the Braves have handed out has worked flawlessly. But as I mentioned earlier, none of those contracts has entered into the years of potential free agency yet. It is those "bonus" years that will prove the extensions either smart, or disastrous. Consider the Twins' extensions of Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Their respective performance and health have been up and down, but the contracts they signed only really kicked in this year. Had they been up for free agency last offseason, as they were on track for originally, would the Twins have even offered them a qualifying offer? Probably not, but these things are tricky; Polanco and Kepler have been integral parts of the Twins' second half surge this year. Contrast that to Riley's contract. He would have been team controlled for two more years after this one, but with his massive contract (ten years, 212M), they are now locked into the next nine years, whether he remains effective or not. The Twins haven't proven much of anything yet, but they have seven homegrown players who could start on any playoff team, Correa, star-caliber depth in the minor leagues, and some (though not a lot) payroll space to supplement. The Braves are still good, I promise that I believe that. They have the star power to go 11-0 this October and would wipe the floor with the Twins in a playoff matchup currently. The greater point, is that the Twins have really built something here. Some draft luck played a part, as talents like Lee and Jenkins should not have been available to a contending club. But here we are, with potential/actual star position players as far as the eye can see, and a decent rotation floor with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober all team-controlled for at least the next four years. Not only that, but unlike the Braves lineup, there are backup plans if things go south. Correa may continue to have foot issues, some of the Twins prospects will flame out, and injuries will always be a factor, but you have to like the Twins chances to feel confident in an assortment of plan B's. The Braves have won six straight division titles; the Twins should be able to follow suit in the Central.- 6 comments
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Facing a surefire Hall-of-Famer in Justin Verlander, the Twins staged a rally against the Astros' bullpen after falling behind early. Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis homered, but Yordan Alvarez homered twice, and Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressley held the last two innings to secure the win in game one. Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (43 Pitches, 28 Strikes, 65%) Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (1), Royce Lewis (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.159), Alex Kirilloff (-.130), Matt Wallner (-0.96) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins took care of business at home against a mercurial Toronto Blue Jays team, allowing one run over the two games en route to the first postseason sweep in Twins/Senators history. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray were as advertised, but the offense let quite a few opportunities slip away. Against the defending champion Astros, the lineup would likely need to produce. The Astros were the only AL team that outhit the Twins in the second half, and still feature a menacing, experienced lineup. The Twins turned to Bailey Ober for game one, citing the Astros lack of at-bats against him, as well as Joe Ryan's inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. It would seem Ober had the moxie to take on a tough team on the road, given his domination this year against the Orioles in Baltimore (7 IP, 0 ER), and against the Dodgers in LA (6 IP, 1 ER). The Astros started the legendary Justin Verlander. He has not quite pitched to the elite level he had established over the years, but maintains decent velocity, exceptional command and knee-buckling breaking stuff. The casual fan might think this was a lopsided pitching matchup, and they would be proven right. The first inning started great. Edouard Julien drew a walk as Verlander had trouble commanding his breaking pitches. Jorge Polanco then drove a hanging curveball for a sharp single. Royce Lewis then got ahead in the count before grounding into a double play to extinguish most of the rally. Max Kepler then walked, but Verlander got Alex Kirilloff to tap out to end the threat. A 23 pitch inning with only 10 strikes from Verlander might have been considered a win. But as he has done so often, Jose Altuve jumped on a first pitch fastball and crushed it 377 feet for a 1-0 Houston lead. Ober settled down after that, getting pop-ups from Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu and convincingly striking out Yordan Alvarez on a high fastball to limit the damage. The Twins built another threat in the second. After Carlos Correa bounced a single off the second base bag, Matt Wallner lined out. Ryan Jeffers then drove a hanging breaking ball into left field, giving the Twins runners on first and second with one out. Michael A. Taylor then jumped on the first pitch, a fastball, and tapped into an inning-ending double play. After an uneventful bottom of the second, Julien started the third by banging an 0-2 fastball off the wall in left-center field for a double. But after a Polanco strikeout, Royce Lewis lined a grounder sharply to Bregman, who caught Julien trying to advance and tagged him out after a brief run-down. Kepler then struck out on a beautiful curveball from Verlander to end the inning. After impressively getting Altuve to pop out to start the third, Ober had a slide slip out of his hand that hit Bregman. He then threw a middle-middle changeup to Alvarez, who does not miss such pitches. 3-0 Astros. That spelled the end of Ober's outing. Kenta Maeda was warming prior to Alvarez's home run, and entered to start the fourth. It is unclear whether Ober would have been allowed to go longer had he kept the score 1-0, but in any event Maeda worked a scoreless fourth. He pitched around a single and walk to Martin Maldonado, but got Altuve to ground out to end the frame. Unfortunately for the Twins, Verlander had found his command by that point and started mowing down hitters with ruthless efficiency. Taylor was mercifully hit with a pitch behind in the count in the fifth, but Julien and Polanco struck out on curveballs to end whatever threat that represented. The Astros added insurance in the fifth. Bregman singled and Alvarez drew a walk. After a Tucker lineout, Abreu popped up to left field. However, Wallner was shading Abreu to the gap and couldn't it down, allowing the fourth run to score. Chas McCormick then singled sharply to Wallner, who came up firing to nab Alvarez at home. Abreu deked Kirilloff into cutting the ball off to retire him at third while Alvarez score the fifth run. It is hard to say if Wallner's throw would have been in time, but it certainly looked like there was a chance. Chris Paddack took over for Maeda in the sixth and pitched a perfect inning. Good timing, because Verlander was out of the game after six. Wallner led off the seventh with one of his customary hit-by-pitches, Jeffers singled, and after two strikeouts, Polanco launched a Hector Neris fastball for a three-run homer. Lewis then followed with a homer of his own to cut the lead to one. Unfortunately for the Twins, Alvarez was due up the next inning. After Paddack retired Bregman on strikes, Rocco Baldelli brought in Caleb Thielbar to face "Air Yordan." Thielbar has struggled with the home run ball, and Alvarez doesn't care who pitches to him. A curveball was left up just a little, and the Astros' DH crushed it to make it a two-run game. This was crucial not just for its impact on the game, but the rest of the series. The Twins purposely did not carry Kody Funderburk this round, mainly because the Astros lefties don't have much in the way of platoon splits. If Thielbar was supposed to represent the Twins' counter to Alvarez/Tucker, that didn't get off to a great start. It will interesting to see whether Thielbar gets another crack at them. Another key play happened after Abreu walked. Trying to advance on a wild pitch, Jeffers gunned him down as he appeared to coast into second Correa seemed to deke Abreu by motioning for Jeffers not to throw, then made a quick tag for the final out. The Twins threatened again in the eighth, with Correa delivering his second hit, a leadoff double against Bryan Abreu. But Wallner and Jeffers struck out, while Willi Castro grounded out sharply to Altuve to end the frame. Ryan Pressley pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save. The good: Polanco took good swings all night and looked more comfortable at third, making a nice spear of Tucker's line drive in the fifth. Lewis got his first hit since his second home in game one against Toronto, and made it count with a long home run in the seventh. Paddack was sharp, retiring all four batters he faced. The Twins got to Neris for four runs and forced ace reliever Bryan Abreu to throw 29 pitches. Correa had two hits and was again impressive in the field. Jhoan and Duran did not have to pitch, while Abreu and Pressley did, portending a potential advantage in game two. The bad: Ober made two bad pitches, and paid a big price. Maeda was dinked and dunked into allowing his two runs, but clearly wasn't the shutdown reliever he had been with the Dodgers. Julien made his crucial baserunning mistake after his double to start the third. He may have thought there were two outs, or he just lost focus. Either way, it cost the Twins while Verlander was still finding his command. What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.66 ERA) faces off against Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45) as the Twins look to even the series. Postgame Interviews: MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Maeda 0 0 0 0 0 43 43 Thielbar 0 10 4 0 0 18 32 Durán 0 14 13 0 0 0 27 Jax 0 8 15 0 0 0 23 Paddack 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 Varland 0 2 17 0 0 0 19 Pagán 0 0 0 0 0 14 14 Stewart 0 0 13 0 0 0 13 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article
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Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (43 Pitches, 28 Strikes, 65%) Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (1), Royce Lewis (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.159), Alex Kirilloff (-.130), Matt Wallner (-0.96) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins took care of business at home against a mercurial Toronto Blue Jays team, allowing one run over the two games en route to the first postseason sweep in Twins/Senators history. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray were as advertised, but the offense let quite a few opportunities slip away. Against the defending champion Astros, the lineup would likely need to produce. The Astros were the only AL team that outhit the Twins in the second half, and still feature a menacing, experienced lineup. The Twins turned to Bailey Ober for game one, citing the Astros lack of at-bats against him, as well as Joe Ryan's inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. It would seem Ober had the moxie to take on a tough team on the road, given his domination this year against the Orioles in Baltimore (7 IP, 0 ER), and against the Dodgers in LA (6 IP, 1 ER). The Astros started the legendary Justin Verlander. He has not quite pitched to the elite level he had established over the years, but maintains decent velocity, exceptional command and knee-buckling breaking stuff. The casual fan might think this was a lopsided pitching matchup, and they would be proven right. The first inning started great. Edouard Julien drew a walk as Verlander had trouble commanding his breaking pitches. Jorge Polanco then drove a hanging curveball for a sharp single. Royce Lewis then got ahead in the count before grounding into a double play to extinguish most of the rally. Max Kepler then walked, but Verlander got Alex Kirilloff to tap out to end the threat. A 23 pitch inning with only 10 strikes from Verlander might have been considered a win. But as he has done so often, Jose Altuve jumped on a first pitch fastball and crushed it 377 feet for a 1-0 Houston lead. Ober settled down after that, getting pop-ups from Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu and convincingly striking out Yordan Alvarez on a high fastball to limit the damage. The Twins built another threat in the second. After Carlos Correa bounced a single off the second base bag, Matt Wallner lined out. Ryan Jeffers then drove a hanging breaking ball into left field, giving the Twins runners on first and second with one out. Michael A. Taylor then jumped on the first pitch, a fastball, and tapped into an inning-ending double play. After an uneventful bottom of the second, Julien started the third by banging an 0-2 fastball off the wall in left-center field for a double. But after a Polanco strikeout, Royce Lewis lined a grounder sharply to Bregman, who caught Julien trying to advance and tagged him out after a brief run-down. Kepler then struck out on a beautiful curveball from Verlander to end the inning. After impressively getting Altuve to pop out to start the third, Ober had a slide slip out of his hand that hit Bregman. He then threw a middle-middle changeup to Alvarez, who does not miss such pitches. 3-0 Astros. That spelled the end of Ober's outing. Kenta Maeda was warming prior to Alvarez's home run, and entered to start the fourth. It is unclear whether Ober would have been allowed to go longer had he kept the score 1-0, but in any event Maeda worked a scoreless fourth. He pitched around a single and walk to Martin Maldonado, but got Altuve to ground out to end the frame. Unfortunately for the Twins, Verlander had found his command by that point and started mowing down hitters with ruthless efficiency. Taylor was mercifully hit with a pitch behind in the count in the fifth, but Julien and Polanco struck out on curveballs to end whatever threat that represented. The Astros added insurance in the fifth. Bregman singled and Alvarez drew a walk. After a Tucker lineout, Abreu popped up to left field. However, Wallner was shading Abreu to the gap and couldn't it down, allowing the fourth run to score. Chas McCormick then singled sharply to Wallner, who came up firing to nab Alvarez at home. Abreu deked Kirilloff into cutting the ball off to retire him at third while Alvarez score the fifth run. It is hard to say if Wallner's throw would have been in time, but it certainly looked like there was a chance. Chris Paddack took over for Maeda in the sixth and pitched a perfect inning. Good timing, because Verlander was out of the game after six. Wallner led off the seventh with one of his customary hit-by-pitches, Jeffers singled, and after two strikeouts, Polanco launched a Hector Neris fastball for a three-run homer. Lewis then followed with a homer of his own to cut the lead to one. Unfortunately for the Twins, Alvarez was due up the next inning. After Paddack retired Bregman on strikes, Rocco Baldelli brought in Caleb Thielbar to face "Air Yordan." Thielbar has struggled with the home run ball, and Alvarez doesn't care who pitches to him. A curveball was left up just a little, and the Astros' DH crushed it to make it a two-run game. This was crucial not just for its impact on the game, but the rest of the series. The Twins purposely did not carry Kody Funderburk this round, mainly because the Astros lefties don't have much in the way of platoon splits. If Thielbar was supposed to represent the Twins' counter to Alvarez/Tucker, that didn't get off to a great start. It will interesting to see whether Thielbar gets another crack at them. Another key play happened after Abreu walked. Trying to advance on a wild pitch, Jeffers gunned him down as he appeared to coast into second Correa seemed to deke Abreu by motioning for Jeffers not to throw, then made a quick tag for the final out. The Twins threatened again in the eighth, with Correa delivering his second hit, a leadoff double against Bryan Abreu. But Wallner and Jeffers struck out, while Willi Castro grounded out sharply to Altuve to end the frame. Ryan Pressley pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save. The good: Polanco took good swings all night and looked more comfortable at third, making a nice spear of Tucker's line drive in the fifth. Lewis got his first hit since his second home in game one against Toronto, and made it count with a long home run in the seventh. Paddack was sharp, retiring all four batters he faced. The Twins got to Neris for four runs and forced ace reliever Bryan Abreu to throw 29 pitches. Correa had two hits and was again impressive in the field. Jhoan and Duran did not have to pitch, while Abreu and Pressley did, portending a potential advantage in game two. The bad: Ober made two bad pitches, and paid a big price. Maeda was dinked and dunked into allowing his two runs, but clearly wasn't the shutdown reliever he had been with the Dodgers. Julien made his crucial baserunning mistake after his double to start the third. He may have thought there were two outs, or he just lost focus. Either way, it cost the Twins while Verlander was still finding his command. What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.66 ERA) faces off against Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45) as the Twins look to even the series. Postgame Interviews: MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Maeda 0 0 0 0 0 43 43 Thielbar 0 10 4 0 0 18 32 Durán 0 14 13 0 0 0 27 Jax 0 8 15 0 0 0 23 Paddack 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 Varland 0 2 17 0 0 0 19 Pagán 0 0 0 0 0 14 14 Stewart 0 0 13 0 0 0 13 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Twins fans are going through a lot right now. Let's try to make sense of it all and see if we can keep a level head. Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports As the Twins enter the playoff field for the seventh time since the 0-18 streak began, the emotions started coming back for me. Let’s explore them. 1) Unrelenting dread: "Going anywhere near the Twins’ bandwagon is a bitter blend of Lucy pulling the ball back from Charlie Brown, a dash of Bill Buckner, a little hubris, that meme of Michael Scott saying I’m ready to get hurt again, the Timberwolves, and a general aesthetic of being both old-fashioned and a little brother. Imagine a toddler wearing a baseball uniform from 1910 and just getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly. If you’re new to the Twins, that’s kind of where we’re at." I wrote this last December. If the Twins get swept on Wednesday, the narrative gets reinforced. The differing takes Twins players have offered about the streak will undergo yet another cycle. “This team is different.” “No one on those teams is part of this one.” “We don’t care about it.” “We’re going to win for the fans.” “Slay the dragon.” If the streak reaches 20 games, what will the next crop of playoff hopefuls even try to say? Baseball is a romantic sport, and it also has the deepest and oldest brand of statistical analysis. But for a streak that has beaten 69 Billion-to-one odds, the challenge is almost entirely mental. CJ Cron has never missed a catch like that. Jorge Polanco has never made a flip as bad as that. Jason Kubel has never taken an at-bat that bad. The pressure is real, and merciless. The intrusive thoughts play a part. Sam Darnold, the former Jets quarterback of the future, described (on a hot mic) playing against the rival Patriots as “Seeing ghosts.” That’s what we’re dealing with here. Louie Varland may have all the confidence in the world about the release of his wonderful new cutter, but leading a game 2-1 in the seventh, a thought might go through his head like, “They’re going to crush this pitch.” Whether the pitch is crushed or not is what the Twins are up against. Ask Cody Stashak or Juan Rincon or Joe Nathan how that usually goes. 2) Appeals to logic: The Twins have the third best wRC+ (124) in all of baseball in the second half, when this offense finally gelled. The Blue Jays are 14th best in hitting for the year. The Twins have battered Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios in the recent past. Even against lefties, the Twins’ hitting Achilles heel in the first half, the lineup is well-equipped now. They had a 125 wRC+ against southpaws in the second half, ahead of Atlanta. The pitching staff tied for the AL lead in fewest runs allowed. But these games aren’t decided on logic, stats, or who stacks up better on paper. The baseball gods are not concerned. 3) This year is different: The entire zeitgeist of Twins fandom has tried to appeal to this emotion in endless ways. They have pitching this year. They have Royce Lewis this year. They aren’t playing the Yankees. They beat the Yankees in the season series. They aren’t betting underdogs against the Blue Jays. They aren’t injured as in years past. But we’ve been through this before. The only shred of hope that I have is that the Blue Jays have their own demons to face down. They have lost five consecutive playoff games, which is a lot for a typical franchise. At the start of 2022, their star player, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., declared that the 2021 season, in which the Jays missed the playoffs but contended until the end, was the trailer and 2022 was the movie. He was mocked for that statement, and even more so when Toronto was swept in the AL Wild Card series by the Mariners (another tragically cursed team at the time). They had an 8-1 lead at home in Game 2 of that series, before the Mariners eventually clawed back and tied the game on a bloop double by JP Crawford, causing two of the Jays stars, Bo Bichette and George Springer to collide while all three baserunners trotted home. It brought to mind the image of Byron Buxton getting picked off as he tried to make an impact as a pinch runner fighting severe concussion symptoms in the last Twins playoff loss. Perhaps an immovable object meeting an unstoppable force is what needs to happen in order for all this to end. 4) The humiliation: Its hard to hear how the Twins are talked about by outsiders at this point. They have every right to chuckle when discussing the Twins’ chances. “Yeah they stack up well, but its the Twins.” The Twinkies. The Yankees’ little brother. Not worth the playoff spot they take up. It’s easy to tell the world we don’t care because we know what kind of team we have. But what if we could just be a normal team? Plenty of talking heads will take the Diamondbacks and Marlins, two flawed teams that made the postseason despite themselves, to advance past the Wild Card round. Some might take the Twins, too. But it's pity. They pick the Twins because they feel bad for Twins fans and on paper they know the Twins have a quality roster. But they know. We know. But what is that? Is it embarrassment? Is it pure ego? I mean, what do we care what members of the media think about our team? It’s like one of those horrible 2000’s makeover shows, where getting a nose job and porcelain veneers was considered empowering. Hopefully those contestants knew that looking like a model had nothing to do with their self-worth, but they still went through with everything. They just didn’t want their appearance to be what held them back. The Twins should know that their team is good. And no one should ever care what Greg Amsinger thinks. But to shove a playoff run down everyone’s throats would be the sweetest victory any Minnesota sports team could ever accomplish. It’s not rational. Winning one game wouldn’t materially change what the team faces as it navigates October. But wouldn’t it be nice to go from the saddest playoff team in sports history, to what the Twins were before all this madness: scrappy underdogs who play hard and who can never be counted out. It’s one victory away. View full article
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- byron buxton
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As the Twins enter the playoff field for the seventh time since the 0-18 streak began, the emotions started coming back for me. Let’s explore them. 1) Unrelenting dread: "Going anywhere near the Twins’ bandwagon is a bitter blend of Lucy pulling the ball back from Charlie Brown, a dash of Bill Buckner, a little hubris, that meme of Michael Scott saying I’m ready to get hurt again, the Timberwolves, and a general aesthetic of being both old-fashioned and a little brother. Imagine a toddler wearing a baseball uniform from 1910 and just getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly. If you’re new to the Twins, that’s kind of where we’re at." I wrote this last December. If the Twins get swept on Wednesday, the narrative gets reinforced. The differing takes Twins players have offered about the streak will undergo yet another cycle. “This team is different.” “No one on those teams is part of this one.” “We don’t care about it.” “We’re going to win for the fans.” “Slay the dragon.” If the streak reaches 20 games, what will the next crop of playoff hopefuls even try to say? Baseball is a romantic sport, and it also has the deepest and oldest brand of statistical analysis. But for a streak that has beaten 69 Billion-to-one odds, the challenge is almost entirely mental. CJ Cron has never missed a catch like that. Jorge Polanco has never made a flip as bad as that. Jason Kubel has never taken an at-bat that bad. The pressure is real, and merciless. The intrusive thoughts play a part. Sam Darnold, the former Jets quarterback of the future, described (on a hot mic) playing against the rival Patriots as “Seeing ghosts.” That’s what we’re dealing with here. Louie Varland may have all the confidence in the world about the release of his wonderful new cutter, but leading a game 2-1 in the seventh, a thought might go through his head like, “They’re going to crush this pitch.” Whether the pitch is crushed or not is what the Twins are up against. Ask Cody Stashak or Juan Rincon or Joe Nathan how that usually goes. 2) Appeals to logic: The Twins have the third best wRC+ (124) in all of baseball in the second half, when this offense finally gelled. The Blue Jays are 14th best in hitting for the year. The Twins have battered Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios in the recent past. Even against lefties, the Twins’ hitting Achilles heel in the first half, the lineup is well-equipped now. They had a 125 wRC+ against southpaws in the second half, ahead of Atlanta. The pitching staff tied for the AL lead in fewest runs allowed. But these games aren’t decided on logic, stats, or who stacks up better on paper. The baseball gods are not concerned. 3) This year is different: The entire zeitgeist of Twins fandom has tried to appeal to this emotion in endless ways. They have pitching this year. They have Royce Lewis this year. They aren’t playing the Yankees. They beat the Yankees in the season series. They aren’t betting underdogs against the Blue Jays. They aren’t injured as in years past. But we’ve been through this before. The only shred of hope that I have is that the Blue Jays have their own demons to face down. They have lost five consecutive playoff games, which is a lot for a typical franchise. At the start of 2022, their star player, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., declared that the 2021 season, in which the Jays missed the playoffs but contended until the end, was the trailer and 2022 was the movie. He was mocked for that statement, and even more so when Toronto was swept in the AL Wild Card series by the Mariners (another tragically cursed team at the time). They had an 8-1 lead at home in Game 2 of that series, before the Mariners eventually clawed back and tied the game on a bloop double by JP Crawford, causing two of the Jays stars, Bo Bichette and George Springer to collide while all three baserunners trotted home. It brought to mind the image of Byron Buxton getting picked off as he tried to make an impact as a pinch runner fighting severe concussion symptoms in the last Twins playoff loss. Perhaps an immovable object meeting an unstoppable force is what needs to happen in order for all this to end. 4) The humiliation: Its hard to hear how the Twins are talked about by outsiders at this point. They have every right to chuckle when discussing the Twins’ chances. “Yeah they stack up well, but its the Twins.” The Twinkies. The Yankees’ little brother. Not worth the playoff spot they take up. It’s easy to tell the world we don’t care because we know what kind of team we have. But what if we could just be a normal team? Plenty of talking heads will take the Diamondbacks and Marlins, two flawed teams that made the postseason despite themselves, to advance past the Wild Card round. Some might take the Twins, too. But it's pity. They pick the Twins because they feel bad for Twins fans and on paper they know the Twins have a quality roster. But they know. We know. But what is that? Is it embarrassment? Is it pure ego? I mean, what do we care what members of the media think about our team? It’s like one of those horrible 2000’s makeover shows, where getting a nose job and porcelain veneers was considered empowering. Hopefully those contestants knew that looking like a model had nothing to do with their self-worth, but they still went through with everything. They just didn’t want their appearance to be what held them back. The Twins should know that their team is good. And no one should ever care what Greg Amsinger thinks. But to shove a playoff run down everyone’s throats would be the sweetest victory any Minnesota sports team could ever accomplish. It’s not rational. Winning one game wouldn’t materially change what the team faces as it navigates October. But wouldn’t it be nice to go from the saddest playoff team in sports history, to what the Twins were before all this madness: scrappy underdogs who play hard and who can never be counted out. It’s one victory away.
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With nothing to play for, the Twins decided to flex their offensive muscles against an overmatched Rockies pitching staff. Four lefty hitters contributed home runs, many of them tape measure shots, while Chris Paddack pitched an encouraging three innings in the blowout win. Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Bulk Pitcher: Chris Paddack 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (39 Pitches, 27 Strikes, 69.2%) Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (8), Max Kepler (24), Matt Wallner (14), Edouard Julien (16) Top 3 WPA: Larnach (.183), Paddack (.122) Wallner (.119) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Tonight was a battle of the bullpens, featuring two teams going in completely different directions, and both with nothing to play for. In fact, Kyle Farmer and Jorge Polanco operated as co-managers for Minnesota. Much of the playoff roster implications had been either decided or will be decided based on health in the coming days. The Twins opener was Emilio Pagan, who worked a 1-2-3 inning 20 hours after closing out the opening game of the series. Matt Koch opened for the Rockies, and worked around a leadoff single to Edouard Julien before setting down the next three hitters. The first consequential outing was Chris Paddack's, starting in the second inning. "The Sheriff" looked sharp with his command; a highlight being a dotted right on-right changeup to Elehuris Montero for strike three as part of a 1-2-3 second inning to begin his night. Although his velocity topped out at 96 MPH, he used his offspeed pitches effectively. The Twins offense got to work when Colorado brought in bulk pitcher Karl Kauffmann, a right-handed rookie with the same walk and strikeout percentage (10.4%). Matt Wallner scorched a double the opposite way to score Donovan Solano, and Christian Vazquez brought in Wallner with a single up the middle against a drawn-in infield. The third inning was even better. After an Alex Kirilloff double, Solano was hit by a pitch and Wallner walked, loading the bases for Trevor Larnach. Larnach worked the count and then launched a 3-2 breaking ball into the right field stands for yet another Twins grand slam (remember when theTwins struggled with the bases loaded?), making the score 6-0. Somewhat surprisingly, Paddack was allowed to pitch three full innings, and unlike his return outing earlier this week, he remained effective throughout his appearance. When he was first brought over in the Taylor Rogers trade, Paddack was talked up similarly to Pablo Lopez- he had the fastball-changeup combo down but was working on making his breaking ball an effective third pitch. 16 months later, and with a surgically repaired elbow, Paddack's curveball was used frequently, and effectively, despite the thin air of Denver taking some of the bite out of it. He struck out four and walked none. A Julien double and a wild pitch added some insurance in the sixth inning. Max Kepler likely cemented his second career .800 OPS season later in the inning with a three-run home run to turn the game into a laugher. Not to be outdone, Wallner roped a 22 degree 2-iron 432 feet (111 MPH) in the seventh. And finally, Julien crushed a two-run homer later in the same inning 452 feet (105 MPH) to make it 14-0. The bullpen struggled after that, with Caleb Thielbar and (mainly) Dallas Keuchel allowing a lot of hard contact along with six meaningless late-inning runs. The good: Paddack made his best case for being included on the playoff roster. His fastball hasn't played up to the level of Louie Varland's, sitting 94-94 MPH, but he showed good command, used all three of his pitches and didn't give the Rockies anything to hit. Wallner continues to smoke the ball and take good at-bats, with a ringing double, walk and the aforementioned howitzer home run. Larnach's recent production is probably too little, too late. But it is nice to see him driving the ball after his struggles in both the majors and Triple-A. The bad: Kirilloff has said his shoulder injury is something he still manages. He has received a couple off days recently and was removed in the seventh in tonight's game. His removal was not necessarily related to the shoulder, and he did lace a double over the left fielder's head (103 MPH) in the third. Him feeling comfortable swinging could be a big x-factor in any extended postseason run. Caleb Thielbar gave up two long home runs, and that has been a minor issue for him. He has now given up seven home runs in just over 30 innings this year. What’s Next: Bailey Ober (8-6, 3.53 ERA) will start the final regular season game for the Twins opposing Chase Anderson (1-6, 5.42 ERA). Anderson has had some success in the big leagues, but is very homer prone. Ober will be trying to make his final case to start game one of a potential ALDS matchup. Playoff Implications: The Blue Jays lost, Houston won, Texas won and Seattle was eliminated. This means Toronto or Houston could be in play for the Twins to face at Target Field on Tuesday. The Blue Jays probably wouldn't mind dropping to the six seed, as they likely prefer to face the Twins over the 98-win Rays. Houston can win their division if they win and Texas loses, so they have incentive to use their ace Framber Valdez (UPDATE: Christian Javier will start for Houston on Sunday, leaving Valdez to start a potential game one). The Astros win the tiebreaker over Texas, but lose the tiebreaker to Toronto. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Keuchel 0 28 0 0 78 106 Paddack 40 0 0 0 39 79 Maeda 0 0 62 0 0 62 Jax 17 8 0 0 19 44 Pagán 0 18 0 9 15 42 Stewart 16 0 0 25 0 41 Thielbar 0 18 0 3 9 30 Funderburk 0 0 0 28 0 28 Durán 0 14 0 0 11 25 Varland 0 0 19 0 0 19 View full article
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Box Score: Bulk Pitcher: Chris Paddack 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (39 Pitches, 27 Strikes, 69.2%) Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (8), Max Kepler (24), Matt Wallner (14), Edouard Julien (16) Top 3 WPA: Larnach (.183), Paddack (.122) Wallner (.119) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Tonight was a battle of the bullpens, featuring two teams going in completely different directions, and both with nothing to play for. In fact, Kyle Farmer and Jorge Polanco operated as co-managers for Minnesota. Much of the playoff roster implications had been either decided or will be decided based on health in the coming days. The Twins opener was Emilio Pagan, who worked a 1-2-3 inning 20 hours after closing out the opening game of the series. Matt Koch opened for the Rockies, and worked around a leadoff single to Edouard Julien before setting down the next three hitters. The first consequential outing was Chris Paddack's, starting in the second inning. "The Sheriff" looked sharp with his command; a highlight being a dotted right on-right changeup to Elehuris Montero for strike three as part of a 1-2-3 second inning to begin his night. Although his velocity topped out at 96 MPH, he used his offspeed pitches effectively. The Twins offense got to work when Colorado brought in bulk pitcher Karl Kauffmann, a right-handed rookie with the same walk and strikeout percentage (10.4%). Matt Wallner scorched a double the opposite way to score Donovan Solano, and Christian Vazquez brought in Wallner with a single up the middle against a drawn-in infield. The third inning was even better. After an Alex Kirilloff double, Solano was hit by a pitch and Wallner walked, loading the bases for Trevor Larnach. Larnach worked the count and then launched a 3-2 breaking ball into the right field stands for yet another Twins grand slam (remember when theTwins struggled with the bases loaded?), making the score 6-0. Somewhat surprisingly, Paddack was allowed to pitch three full innings, and unlike his return outing earlier this week, he remained effective throughout his appearance. When he was first brought over in the Taylor Rogers trade, Paddack was talked up similarly to Pablo Lopez- he had the fastball-changeup combo down but was working on making his breaking ball an effective third pitch. 16 months later, and with a surgically repaired elbow, Paddack's curveball was used frequently, and effectively, despite the thin air of Denver taking some of the bite out of it. He struck out four and walked none. A Julien double and a wild pitch added some insurance in the sixth inning. Max Kepler likely cemented his second career .800 OPS season later in the inning with a three-run home run to turn the game into a laugher. Not to be outdone, Wallner roped a 22 degree 2-iron 432 feet (111 MPH) in the seventh. And finally, Julien crushed a two-run homer later in the same inning 452 feet (105 MPH) to make it 14-0. The bullpen struggled after that, with Caleb Thielbar and (mainly) Dallas Keuchel allowing a lot of hard contact along with six meaningless late-inning runs. The good: Paddack made his best case for being included on the playoff roster. His fastball hasn't played up to the level of Louie Varland's, sitting 94-94 MPH, but he showed good command, used all three of his pitches and didn't give the Rockies anything to hit. Wallner continues to smoke the ball and take good at-bats, with a ringing double, walk and the aforementioned howitzer home run. Larnach's recent production is probably too little, too late. But it is nice to see him driving the ball after his struggles in both the majors and Triple-A. The bad: Kirilloff has said his shoulder injury is something he still manages. He has received a couple off days recently and was removed in the seventh in tonight's game. His removal was not necessarily related to the shoulder, and he did lace a double over the left fielder's head (103 MPH) in the third. Him feeling comfortable swinging could be a big x-factor in any extended postseason run. Caleb Thielbar gave up two long home runs, and that has been a minor issue for him. He has now given up seven home runs in just over 30 innings this year. What’s Next: Bailey Ober (8-6, 3.53 ERA) will start the final regular season game for the Twins opposing Chase Anderson (1-6, 5.42 ERA). Anderson has had some success in the big leagues, but is very homer prone. Ober will be trying to make his final case to start game one of a potential ALDS matchup. Playoff Implications: The Blue Jays lost, Houston won, Texas won and Seattle was eliminated. This means Toronto or Houston could be in play for the Twins to face at Target Field on Tuesday. The Blue Jays probably wouldn't mind dropping to the six seed, as they likely prefer to face the Twins over the 98-win Rays. Houston can win their division if they win and Texas loses, so they have incentive to use their ace Framber Valdez (UPDATE: Christian Javier will start for Houston on Sunday, leaving Valdez to start a potential game one). The Astros win the tiebreaker over Texas, but lose the tiebreaker to Toronto. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Keuchel 0 28 0 0 78 106 Paddack 40 0 0 0 39 79 Maeda 0 0 62 0 0 62 Jax 17 8 0 0 19 44 Pagán 0 18 0 9 15 42 Stewart 16 0 0 25 0 41 Thielbar 0 18 0 3 9 30 Funderburk 0 0 0 28 0 28 Durán 0 14 0 0 11 25 Varland 0 0 19 0 0 19
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Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (93 pitches, 61 Strikes, 65.6%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Edouard Julien (-.229), Matt Wallner (-.120), Trevor Larnach (-.107) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The day after a thrilling night in which the Twins clinched the Central Division and celebrated appropriately, Sonny Gray took the mound in front of a "hangover" lineup opposing the hapless Angels. The kids would call this a "scheduled loss," and that seemed apt with Andrew Stevenson leading off despite facing a lefty starter, Jordan Luplow playing first base, and Kyle Farmer hitting cleanup. Gray started strong, however. His breaking pitches had some good bite on them, which is a good indication that Gray would be in command and deliver a quality outing. Occasionally Gray will start throwing backup breaking balls and get forced into throwing fastballs just to stay in counts- it has been a few months since we've seen that, fortunately. His breaking stuff, particularly the sweeper, was in prime form this afternoon. Opposing Gray was Kenny Rosenberg, a soft-tossing lefty probably best suited for Triple-A work. The Twins first two batters, Andrew Stevenson and Donovan Solano, struck out. But Edouard Julien walked, Kyle Farmer singled and Michael A. Taylor walked to load the bases. Matt Wallner worked the count to 3-2 before flying out to end the frame. The Twins continued to put runners on base, but couldn't push anything across through the first three innings. Gray cruised through three innings, getting a lot of called strikes on breaking pitches and keeping the Angels off balance. Jo Adell, the Angels center-fielder and a former top ten global prospect with prodigious raw power (that he has had trouble getting to thus far), absolutely crushed a Gray fastball into the bullpen to start the fourth. Gray quickly set down the next three batters, but all of a sudden the Twins were facing a deficit against Rosenberg. Christian Vazquez got his second single of the game with one out in the fourth inning, and Trevor Larnach followed with a rocket to right-center. The ball died on the warning track, surprising the broadcast crew, and Jordan Luplow quickly popped out to end the frame. That sequence defined the Twins results against Rosenberg, who ultimately Dallas Keuchel'd his way through five scoreless innings. The strength of this depleted Angels roster may be its relief pitching. Jimmy "The Human Glitch" Herget pitched a scoreless sixth, and flame-throwing rookie Ben Joyce pitched a quick seventh. Jose Soriano was bailed out by a tremendous defensive play from shortstop David Fletcher in the eighth. After Solano was hit by a pitch, Julien hit a 106 MPH smash up the middle that Fletcher somehow managed to glove and flip to second, almost behind his back. Julien was retired for the double play, still not running hard as he works through his hamstring issues. Closer Carlos Estévez began the ninth inning by smoking Farmer on the elbow, but struck out Taylor and Wallner before getting Vazquez to fly out to end the game. The good: Kyle Farmer continues to blister the baseball, and with his second hit of the game in the third inning, made it on base in seven of eight plate appearances. He will be a key part of any Twins attack against a lefty in the playoffs, and if Carlos Correa and/or Royce Lewis are unavailable, he would slot in for either. He looks to be getting hot at the right time. For good measure, he gunned down Nolan Schanuel at the plate on a relay in the eighth to keep the score 1-0. Gray was electric, allowing four hits while striking out eight. Outside of the one fastball to Adell, he looks ready to dominate in the playoffs. The bad: Donovan Solano has struggled of late, hitting .220 in September thus far. He started the game with a strikeout, ground out and double play grounder. Jordan Luplow looked pretty rough at first base, with a misplay in the second resulting in a throwing error being charged to Solano. What’s Next: Joe Ryan (10-10, 4.30 ERA) goes against Tyler Anderson (6-6, 5.43) as the Twins look to take the series against the Angels. It will be a good chance for Ryan to build confidence against a struggling lineup as he auditions for the number three slot in the postseason rotation. Anderson was a big offseason pickup for the Angels, coming off a sub 3.00 ERA season with the Dodgers. The ability is there, and he is a lefty, so the Twins will have to lock in to defeat him. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Winder 0 29 0 0 35 64 Durán 0 21 0 34 0 55 Thielbar 16 0 0 20 0 36 Funderburk 20 0 0 0 0 20 Pagán 8 0 0 0 10 18 Jax 0 17 0 0 0 17 Floro 16 0 0 0 1 17 Varland 0 0 0 11 0 11 Keuchel 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Facing a struggling and unfortunate Angels team, the Twins threw out a true hangover lineup and the game proceeded about how you would expect. Sonny Gray was good, as usual, but the offense only mustered five singles and were shut down completely by Angels pitching in a loss that practically cements their positioning as the third seed in the playoffs. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (93 pitches, 61 Strikes, 65.6%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Edouard Julien (-.229), Matt Wallner (-.120), Trevor Larnach (-.107) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The day after a thrilling night in which the Twins clinched the Central Division and celebrated appropriately, Sonny Gray took the mound in front of a "hangover" lineup opposing the hapless Angels. The kids would call this a "scheduled loss," and that seemed apt with Andrew Stevenson leading off despite facing a lefty starter, Jordan Luplow playing first base, and Kyle Farmer hitting cleanup. Gray started strong, however. His breaking pitches had some good bite on them, which is a good indication that Gray would be in command and deliver a quality outing. Occasionally Gray will start throwing backup breaking balls and get forced into throwing fastballs just to stay in counts- it has been a few months since we've seen that, fortunately. His breaking stuff, particularly the sweeper, was in prime form this afternoon. Opposing Gray was Kenny Rosenberg, a soft-tossing lefty probably best suited for Triple-A work. The Twins first two batters, Andrew Stevenson and Donovan Solano, struck out. But Edouard Julien walked, Kyle Farmer singled and Michael A. Taylor walked to load the bases. Matt Wallner worked the count to 3-2 before flying out to end the frame. The Twins continued to put runners on base, but couldn't push anything across through the first three innings. Gray cruised through three innings, getting a lot of called strikes on breaking pitches and keeping the Angels off balance. Jo Adell, the Angels center-fielder and a former top ten global prospect with prodigious raw power (that he has had trouble getting to thus far), absolutely crushed a Gray fastball into the bullpen to start the fourth. Gray quickly set down the next three batters, but all of a sudden the Twins were facing a deficit against Rosenberg. Christian Vazquez got his second single of the game with one out in the fourth inning, and Trevor Larnach followed with a rocket to right-center. The ball died on the warning track, surprising the broadcast crew, and Jordan Luplow quickly popped out to end the frame. That sequence defined the Twins results against Rosenberg, who ultimately Dallas Keuchel'd his way through five scoreless innings. The strength of this depleted Angels roster may be its relief pitching. Jimmy "The Human Glitch" Herget pitched a scoreless sixth, and flame-throwing rookie Ben Joyce pitched a quick seventh. Jose Soriano was bailed out by a tremendous defensive play from shortstop David Fletcher in the eighth. After Solano was hit by a pitch, Julien hit a 106 MPH smash up the middle that Fletcher somehow managed to glove and flip to second, almost behind his back. Julien was retired for the double play, still not running hard as he works through his hamstring issues. Closer Carlos Estévez began the ninth inning by smoking Farmer on the elbow, but struck out Taylor and Wallner before getting Vazquez to fly out to end the game. The good: Kyle Farmer continues to blister the baseball, and with his second hit of the game in the third inning, made it on base in seven of eight plate appearances. He will be a key part of any Twins attack against a lefty in the playoffs, and if Carlos Correa and/or Royce Lewis are unavailable, he would slot in for either. He looks to be getting hot at the right time. For good measure, he gunned down Nolan Schanuel at the plate on a relay in the eighth to keep the score 1-0. Gray was electric, allowing four hits while striking out eight. Outside of the one fastball to Adell, he looks ready to dominate in the playoffs. The bad: Donovan Solano has struggled of late, hitting .220 in September thus far. He started the game with a strikeout, ground out and double play grounder. Jordan Luplow looked pretty rough at first base, with a misplay in the second resulting in a throwing error being charged to Solano. What’s Next: Joe Ryan (10-10, 4.30 ERA) goes against Tyler Anderson (6-6, 5.43) as the Twins look to take the series against the Angels. It will be a good chance for Ryan to build confidence against a struggling lineup as he auditions for the number three slot in the postseason rotation. Anderson was a big offseason pickup for the Angels, coming off a sub 3.00 ERA season with the Dodgers. The ability is there, and he is a lefty, so the Twins will have to lock in to defeat him. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Winder 0 29 0 0 35 64 Durán 0 21 0 34 0 55 Thielbar 16 0 0 20 0 36 Funderburk 20 0 0 0 0 20 Pagán 8 0 0 0 10 18 Jax 0 17 0 0 0 17 Floro 16 0 0 0 1 17 Varland 0 0 0 11 0 11 Keuchel 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article
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