The offseason tends to consolidate around narratives. Certain moves seem to scratch the itches of specific analysts, and depending on the volume they project their voice at, the vibes around said team will grow or shrink accordingly. For example, the MLB zeitgeist loved the Yankees acquiring Juan Soto, and hated the Mariners trading Eugenio Suarez. They hate that the Red Sox cut payroll, and loved that the Diamondbacks increased theirs.

The true talent level of a team is often hard to see. If an analyst or a network wants a narrative to be true, they will gloss over any potential weakness of a team, and if they are vague enough in their critique, they can argue the opposite of what logic or even anecdotal evidence would deem true. For example, one of the boneheads on Foul Territory loves the Braves bullpen, because it feels like they would have a great bullpen (Its not, and may prove to be a weakness). Giancarlo Stanton had a great spring so it feels like he isn't a negative WAR player anymore.

We even had old friend Aaron Gleeman say he likes the top end of the Yankee lineup because they have Judge, Soto and, trying to think of a third he landed on Gleyber Torres, who's a solid player but nothing more. Last year the dicsussion was on if the Yankees should trade Torres, he increased his OPS+ by 5, and now he is the third leg of a new murderers row.

Contrary and spicy-brained as I am, here are my picks for the three teams most over-hyped despite evidence to the contrary, and three teams that have been slept on.

Keep in mind I was 100% right in questioning the legitimacy of the 2023 Guardians (lucky in '22), Yankees (couldn't hit), Orioles (too cute by half, would fall short in October), Rays (too injured, would fall short in October) and Braves (no depth, would fall short in October).

3 Teams that will surprise:

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners began the offseason by trading away one of their few sources of power in 2023, Eugenio Suarez, and made little effort to resign Teoscar Hernandez. They supplemented those (high-strikeout) losses with Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, the return of Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley, who quietly became a solid righty-crusher last year in Tampa.

Seattle also features the best rotation in the AL, and perhaps in all of baseball. Both George Kirby and Luis Castillo profile as aces, Logan Gilbert would be a solid number two in most rotations, while Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are promising young starters with big stuff who have already flashed success in the majors. I worry a little about their bullpen, as it relies a lot on Andres Munoz to function as expected following the departures of Pat Sewald, Justin Topa and Isaiah Campbell, with dominant setup-man Matt Brash on the shelf with an arm injury. They acquired flame-throwing Gregory Santos from the White Sox, but he too, will start the year on the IL with a lat strain.\

Boston Red Sox

Boston always seems to be able to produce hard-hitting lineups, and this year should prove as no exception. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Trevor Story, and Masitaka Yoshida will anchor the lineup, and if any of Conor Wong, Tyler O’Neill, Cedane Rafaela or Jaren Duran steps forward, they should be able to match up with well with most pitching staffs.

The pitching is much more suspect, but the quintet of Bryan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock all have mid-rotation upside or better. Kenley Janssen and Chris Martin are in their late-30’s but still effective in the back of the bullpen. It is surprising to see the Red Sox scale back their payroll to such an extent, but given their boom-or-bust tendencies of recent seasons, I would say they are overdue for an over-performance.

San Diego Padres

Like the Twins, the Padres were forced to cut payroll due to their TV rights situation. In fact, their games will be broadcast by MLB this year. As a result, Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, Josh Hader, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are no longer with the team. However, like the Twins, they still boast an impressive core despite the spending cuts. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado,  Ha-Seon Kim and Xander Bogaerts still represent a solid offensive core, while Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove remain a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

If top prospect Jackson Merrill thrives immediately and the team experiences relative health, they should not be underestimated. Last year, despite missing the playoffs, their Pythagorean record was a hearty 92-70.

3 teams that will disappoint:

New York Yankees

 Adding Juan Soto would be a massive upgrade for any team, and the Yankees are no exception. The problem they face is that their core is a year older, their pitching depth is depleted from the Soto trade, and Gerrit Cole will miss at least the first two months of the year with an ominous elbow injury.

Outside of Judge and Soto, their lineup is highly suspect. If you believe Giancarlo Stanton has anything left, that Anthony Rizzo will bounce back from a career-threatening head injury or that DJ LeMahieu will provide anything in his age-35 season, the team could still contend for a playoff spot. If you’re sane, you will bet the under.

Baltimore Orioles

Corbin Burnes was a massive acquisition for an Oriole team that won over 100 games last year. Not mentioned in any of the glowing analysis’ of that trade is that Burnes’ FIP has risen from 1.63 in his Cy Young-winning 2021 season, to 3.14 in 2022, to 3.81 last year. His strikeout rate has plummeted from 35.6% to 25.5% in that time. Behind Burnes is Kyle Bradish, out with an elbow injury, and Grayson Rodriguez is talented but unproven in the third spot. John Means is also battling injury, while stud closer Félix Bautista is out for the year.

The lineup has no true stars unless Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschmann both take steps forward, which is no guarantee for young players, even as highly-touted as those two are. Given the talent level of their reinforcements Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg, I envision Baltimore still making the playoffs. But a lot can go wrong with this team.

Atlanta Braves

I have opined previously that the Braves have no depth, and in fact, the one young player who could have stepped in to the lineup in the event of injury, Vaughn Grissom, was traded for Chris Sale. Their lineup will still be a force, but it simply cannot stay as healthy as 2023, when they resembled the 2022 Guardians in terms of injury luck. They still lack a true shortstop, and left field remains a question with Jared Kelenic having a tumultuous career thus far.

I struggle to see the hype in their bullpen, where Raisel Iglesias is a fairly mid-tier closer, and I don’t see how Joe Jimenez and A.J. Minter make up for that. The rotation looks great at the top, but after Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Sale are more question marks, with not much help available on the farm. They will contend, but the Phillies are a more complete team.