Hans Birkeland

We should be past the point of treating analytics in baseball like a boogeyman. At the same time, the curiosity that drives this pursuit should recognize its current limitations. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken–USA TODAY Sports "Scouting the stat line" is a pejorative nowadays, meaning you evaluate a player strictly on their baseball-reference page. But not too long ago, it was a pretty smart thing for a front office to do. In 2002, all you had to do was look at David Justice’s on-base percentage to determine that he might have something left in the tank late in his career. A decade or so later, we started caring less about raw rate stats and focusing more on who was the least lucky player, using expected stats. xFIP and xSLG came into fashion as ways to measure what a player should have done given a luck-neutral environment. Then came batted ball data, and everyone rushed to figure out who hit the ball the hardest and whose slider had the most spin. If a player’s performance was subpar but the ball data told a different story, you may have a bargain on your hands. We now know that someone with a good OBP can be pretty useless if they lack power or defensive value. We also, arguably, are starting to realize that expected rate stats, while useful in predicting who might be good next year, don't offer much for tomorrow’s game. The Limitations of Current Baseball Analytics Batted ball data, while useful, offers even less in player evaluation, because it doesn’t truly factor in, for instance, a feel for hitting. Luis Arraez has looked terrible under the lens of batted ball data, but would the Marlins prefer anyone else at the plate when all you need is a base hit to swing the game in the late innings? His mindset as a hitter is elite, and evaluating that could usher in a new wave of analysis. I always go back to the debate over clutch stats. It’s true that over a big enough sample, players will hit and pitch at the same level in clutch situations as they do normally. But I like to imagine myself, in eighth-grade Babe Ruth League, up at the plate with the game on the line. I hit scared. Not of the ball, but of striking out, especially when the team needed me to perform. I would flail at everything and could usually put a ball in play, weakly, given that I had three shots at it. I was also kind of fast, the opposing defense was usually poor and I probably went one-for-four in close and late situations. My approach was terrible. My thought process was terrible. The moment felt too big for me. I made bad swing decisions. My season average? .250. The stats didn’t say I was a bad clutch hitter, but in my mind, I knew that I was. How do you think David Ortiz in his Red Sox heyday felt with the game on the line? He knew the opposing pitcher’s tendencies and their plan of attack. He knew what pitches he did well against. He’d done it before. A mixture of confidence and savvy is a great combination. I don’t even doubt that we can find a way to measure both of those variables. We’ll start park-adjusting it and call it SAVCON+. It’ll weigh chase percentage, exit velocity in close and late situations, number of pitchers/hitters faced, number of teammates weddings he attended on a rate basis, and mold it all into a two-digit percentile in which 100 is average. But tongue in cheek or not, the deeper we go into which stats can predict with higher probability what a player will be going forward, and in certain situations, the more players will succumb to their own analysis. Because once guys start thinking about why their expected performance is so good, the confidence game resets. Why a Results-Driven Mindset Matters Once a player hears about a stat and which extreme he falls on, the possibility arises where he says to himself, “I’ve been a groomsman for six different guys on this team and was an usher in four,” or in more realistic terms, “My exit velocity is good, so I don’t need to make any adjustments.” He’s broken the glass. Showing somebody an impression you do of them has the same effect. The joke is less funny, more mean, and you probably won’t do it as much. Then trying to perform it under pressure is a recipe for disaster. This ties into the cat-and-mouse game between the pitcher and hitter. If either side is in his own head thinking about how he needs to make swing or pitch decisions based on attaining better expected or batted ball stats, the opponent has a huge advantage. Every year, we hear about how Max Kepler is going to adjust and start posting a higher average on balls in play, but the self-described tinkerer hasn’t been valuable as a hitter outside of 2019, when Rawlings was producing superballs. Sometimes Kepler tries to lift the ball more, sometimes he tries to go the other way more. He’s a pretty smart, introspective guy, but he lets pitchers not named Trevor Bauer carve him up on a routine basis. For all we know, the pitchers are Lisa Simpson playing rock paper scissors with Bart, thinking to themselves, “Poor predictable Max, always picks rock.” To which Max thinks, “Good ol’ rock, nothing beats that!” Measuring the Mental Game Despite our efforts, we can’t know the truth of what goes on in players’ heads, but it's clear some guys are better at the mental game than others. You can call this sought-after ability character, intangibles, baseball IQ, BALLPAYER™, or Derek Jeter-like. An overemphasis on it by front offices leads to the type of teams that got lapped in the mid-2000s by teams with a basic analytical understanding. An under-emphasis can lead to performance that falls well below a team’s talent level, like the 2022 White Sox (although injuries and Tony La Russa played a big part, as well). Do the Twins have these kinds of guys? I have no idea. I rely on beat reporters and league insiders to provide me the occasional morsel of information on a bi-annual basis, such as the revelation that Tyler Mahle didn’t do shoulder-strengthening exercises last year after his injury and then went straight to Driveline after the season concluded to work on his slider. Otherwise, all I have is the eye test. Joe Ryan looked confident last year, but he definitely seemed to lose a lot of battles, especially against tougher opponents. Did he rely on his fastball too much deep in counts? Will he trust his new offspeed pitches enough to go to them in more high-leverage situations? Jose Miranda looked pretty excitable at the plate and in the field in his rookie year but also had a lot of big hits. Can he be more selective and let the game come to him in his follow-up campaign? (The opening series was a promising indicator, with Miranda drawing three walks in three games.) Is Gilberto Celestino a mistake-prone head case or was he a young player pushed into action before he was ready and trying too hard to keep his roster spot? It’s the front office’s job to figure out these answers, and if the conclusion is a clear negative, it behooves them to try and trade the player to a team that overvalues his statistical output. That could be the new market inefficiency for teams to capitalize on. In Moneyball, old-timey scouts were mocked by Billy Beane for saying guys “looked like a ballplayer,” or that they might not be confident players based on the women they dated. That kind of analysis is still pretty gauche, but in a world where everything a player does has a metric assigned to it, and every team has access to all of that data beyond even what the public does, perhaps effectively evaluating a player’s mind is a way to win Moneyball 3.0. View full article

It’s almost hard to believe, but on Saturday, the Minnesota Twins beat the Kansas City Royals 2-0. The team is now 2-0 with both wins being by a score of 2-0. Find out more in our Game Recap below. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Sonny Gray: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 1 K (83 pitches, 52 strikes (62.7%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Sonny Gray (0.306), Jose Miranda (0.120), Jorge Lopez (0.092) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Gray’s Shaky Shutout Coming off a headline-grabbing quote in which Sonny Gray expressed frustration with the leash afforded to Twins starters last year, the veteran was surprisingly shaky on a cool, windy day in Kansas City. He lacked fastball command, although his velocity was hitting 93 MPH regularly. In fact, his velocity ranged between 92.1 and 93.7 the whole game. Gray countered this by throwing his full assortment of breaking pitches, many of which were left up in the zone with the Royals frequently making hard contact. Some key double plays and solid defense bailed Gray out. He was replaced to start the sixth inning, and although he likely did not appreciate that, Rocco probably did his ERA a favor in the end with the decision. Twins not taking advantage of opportunities against Lyles Jordan Lyles is the definition of a journeyman starting pitcher, pitching for his ninth organization in Kansas City. His career ERA+ is a deflated 83, meaning 17% below average. His only above-average stint was with Milwaukee in 2019, which tallied a total of 11 starts. Twins batters bailed Lyles out, chasing in hitters' counts and making mistakes on the bases. Thankfully, Byron Buxton was playing in this game. Buxton’s Scare in 1st Inning After roping a line drive down the left field line in his first at-bat, Buxton raced for second and slid into the bag with a double. He slid awkwardly and was lucky to avoid injury. It was not only the impact of the belly flop at his top speed but of his helmet hitting his face on the ricochet and the throw from left field nearly beaning him, for good measure. Two games in, sales for blood pressure medication in Minnesota figures to spike. He stayed in the game and scored on a Jose Miranda single to center. Just as he was yesterday, Buxton was in the middle of the first two scoring chances for the Twins. In the fifth inning, he used his high baseball IQ (or, shhhh… really bat baserunning but great luck, and speed?) to create a second run. After reaching on a single, Buxton advanced to second base on a wild pitch. He advanced to third base on a very risky play. On a ground ball to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Buxton took off for third, a cardinal sin in baseball. Fortunately, for the Twins Witt appeared to panic. He rushed his throw to third, short-arming the throw and allowing Buxton to be safe. Kyle Farmer came in to face a lefty reliever. He hit a fly ball to center field. It wasn’t deep and no one should try to score on that ball. But Buxton casually walked back to third base, took a few half-speed steps toward home, and then he took off. Vinnie Pasquantino cut off the ball, either thinking that Buxton wouldn’t tag, or because Jose Miranda had returned to first and faked a tag to second base. Regardless, Buxton and his speed scored again. At the end of the day, Buxton scored both of the Twins runs on Saturday after he scored one of the two Twins runs on Thursday. His impact on this team has already been witnessed. Jorge Alcala Returns Making his first appearance in nearly a year, Alcala relieved Gray to start the sixth inning and walked the now very un-imposing Franmil Reyes. Relying heavily on his slider, Alcala was fortunate to avoid damage when Hunter Dozier lined out and Kyle Isbel hit the ball hard but right to Nick Gordon who teamed with the strong-armed Carlos Correa to convert an excellent double play. Not the most encouraging performance, but he kept the Royals scoreless. Thielbar gets the 8th Inning Nursing a two run lead, the Twins turned to veteran Caleb Thielbar in the eighth inning, after using Griffin Jax in the same situation on opening day. Jax worked a perfect seventh t and pitched well to the 8-9-1 hitters. Thielbar gave up a single to Salvador Perez but followed that with swinging strikeouts on his fastball to Pasquintino and Reyes. He looked dominant, and it will be interesting to see who the Twins turn to in the eight going forward. Lopez gets the 9th Inning and the Save In a mild surprise Jorge López pitched the ninth, perhaps since the Royals 6-7-8 hitters were coming up. He looked to be at his best. He threw strikes and induced a weak pop-up to Hunter Dozier. Then he struck out Kyle Isbel and got a soft line-out to pinch hitter Michael Massey. What’s Next? On Sunday, the Twins will send Joe Ryan to the mound for the third and final game of the series against Brad Keller. The Twins will be hoping to score more than two runs and complete the sweep in Kansas City. The game starts at 1:10 central time. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Thielbar 0 0 11 0 18 29 Jax 0 0 9 0 11 20 Duran 0 0 16 0 0 16 López 0 0 5 0 8 13 Alcala 0 0 0 0 12 12 Sands 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moran 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pagán 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

You got to know what's coming up behind any player you trade. With Polanco, we have four top prospects who all profile at 2nd base (Lee is more of a 3b but still). After 2021 we had Arraez also as a 2b. It's tricky and you can make the right value play and still have everything go wrong. The Twins won the Arraez trade but if PabLo gets hurt and Arraez hits .315 again we're viewing it differently. Thielbar's metrics are so good he should command roughly the kind of value the Orioles got back for Jorge López (Cade Povich is a very good prospect and some are putting him in the top 100). But probably at the deadline and only if the reinforcements, Moran, Alcala and maybe one of the long relievers, look good. You can do rebuilds or you can make trades that hurt emotionally. Unless you're Steve Cohen, you can't pick neither.

The wise know what to do with a closed door. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser loosely based on a segment of the gameshow “Let's Make a Deal.” On the show, there is a game in which a contestant must choose one of three doors that has a prize behind it. After picking a door, the host will open one of the doors that does not contain the prize. The contestant is then asked if they would like to stick with their original door, or switch to the other remaining door. Instinctually, the contestant thinks that this is a 50/50 proposition, but the reality is that when they picked the first door, they had a 33% chance of picking the prize. That doesn’t change simply by virtue of a door being eliminated. Switching doors, by contrast, results in a 66% chance of picking the prize, because there is now more information (an eliminated door) available to the contestant. I was thinking of the Monty Hall problem because I was thinking about the Royals (For whatever reason). I was thinking about how they have played Ryan O’Hearn, a lumbering first baseman with a 83 career OPS+, in each of the past five seasons. They’ve also given Brad Keller five shots to prove himself. Heck, they’ve played Adalberto Mondesi in seven. At some point, some team was likely interested in all three of those guys given that the Royals have not contended since 2016, and at the peak of their value, they each could have netted multiple prospects who would project as regulars. Instead, all three have disintegrated in value. Like a door being removed from consideration, we now know that O’Hearn doesn’t come close to hitting enough to make up for his place on the bottom of the defensive spectrum. We know now that Mondesi is injury prone, and even if he wasn’t he doesn’t control the strike zone well enough to be a franchise shortstop. Keller is hittable and also gives up a ton of walks (bad combo). It was too late to trade any of these guys years ago. Case in point: Mondesi was traded this offseason, and all the Royals received in return was fungible left-handed reliever, Josh Taylor. The Royals made plenty of bad decisions following their World Series run, but being too precious about their prospects is a big reason they are undergoing a rebuild of their failed rebuild from four years ago. It’s just difficult to build a competitive team on a budget when you fall in love with every hot twenty-game stretch you see. If that all seems pretty foolish, it is, although the analytic counterpoint isn’t perfect, either. The knowledge that flipping a well-known player with two to three years of team control is the correct probability play can also have a negative impact on a clubhouse full of human beings. Smart teams can either spend money on free agents to supplement their value trades, or get their players to buy into why they conduct so many trades. The Tampa Bay Rays, for instance, aren’t just successful because they understand the basics of the Monty Hall problem, but because they place such a focus on getting their players to buy into their philosophy. Ryan Thompson, the Rays reliever who made minor headlines detailing the arbitration process in depth from the player’s perspective, is a good example. He lost his arbitration case, but in his extensive Twitter thread, he didn’t opine the experience because the Rays were cutthroat or penny-pinching, he was mad at the arbitrators for not knowing ball and letting the Rays fill their small brains with ideas about how a player should get paid based on the timing of when he gets injured. Through it all, Thompson espoused respect for what the Rays were doing and why they were doing it, praising their communication and transparency in a later MLBtraderumors chat. Where do the Twins fall in this regard? In terms of trading Luis Arraez at peak value while signing Carlos Correa, who didn’t cost any prospect capital and is highly skilled at getting his teammates to buy into analytics, they’ve done well since the new year. In the recent past, however, they could have traded Jorge Polanco after his 2021 season where he was healthy, hit 33 home runs and played a solid second base. He also would have come with an extremely team-friendly contract. Starting in 2022, he would have been owed thirteen million over two years, with a vesting option for 2024 based on plate appearances and a team option for 2025. Polanco also is a switch hitter who can fake it at shortstop in an emergency. Everyone loves Polo, and its hard to find anyone on the Twins I would more like to be at-bat in a clutch situation, but the value he carried going into 2022 was immense. The Dodgers could have inquired knowing they had Gavin Lux to step in at short and were going to lose Corey Seager. The Red Sox would have likely preferred paying Polanco 36M over four years at most, as opposed to paying Trevor Story 140M over six. The price tag could have been, depending on market factors, multiple top 50 global prospects based on Polanco’s age, bat, and contract. Or, he could have commanded a younger prospect in addition to short-term, impact pitching help, And now it looks like Polanco’s knees still hurt. That window of excellent trade value could be gone forever, regardless of any 2023 bounce-back. In terms of capital for future trades, the Twins have only five players; Jorge López, Pablo López, Kyle Farmer, Jorge Alcala and Caleb Thielbar, with between two and three years of team control, the usual sweet spot for maximizing trade value. The first three of that group were just acquired via trade, and Alcala is trying to prove he is healthy following elbow surgery. That would leave Thielbar as the best trade candidate on the roster. He’s 36 and had the best hard-hit rate of any reliever in baseball last year. Given his age, he could also fall off a cliff at any moment. Getting value before that happens is what separates the good teams from the Royals, Rockies and the 2011 Twins. Switch the doors. View full article

First judge the rankings. Then let us know where the 2023 rotation should slot in. Image courtesy of © Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports With this year’s rotation looking promising and, so far, healthy, let’s rank the past 25 years of Twins rotations. Fangraphs WAR will feature prominently in the rankings, but contextual factors are considered, as well. I also included AL rankings. As a point of comparison, the number one team in fWAR for their rotation in a given year is usually around nineteen to twenty. For instance, the 2001 Diamondbacks with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson had 19.6 fWAR; the 2022 Astros had 19.4. The 2023 Twins staff … well, let’s talk about them at the end. Let’s get started! 1. 2004- 15.9 fWAR (2nd): The top four starters all threw in 33 or more starts, with Johan Santana winning the Cy Young, Brad Radke posting the lowest ERA of his career, and Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse contributing above-average seasons. In July, Radke, Santana, and Lohse pitched consecutive shutouts. This rotation had top-end talent, depth, and health. 2. 2020- 16.2 fWAR (2nd) (projected to 162 games): Kenta Maeda was a revelation, Rich Hill was decent, Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda were their usual selves and the team used openers and peak Randy Dobnak to post the third-best starting pitcher fWAR in baseball. Imagine if Jake Odorizzi had been available. I would rank them first but in a 60 game season, there isn’t much of a test of depth. 3. 2006- 12.5 fWAR (6th): Prior to Francisco Liriano getting hurt, this team had the best rotation of any listed here. But in addition to Liriano needing Tommy John, Radke famously couldn’t brush his teeth due to a total lack of rotator cuff and Boof Bonser ended up starting game two of the ALDS as a result. Johan Santana had perhaps his best year, it should be noted. 4. 2005- 15 fWAR (4th): Santana was electric again with 7.1 fWAR. Radke, Lohse and Silva were solid. Unfortunately, this team couldn’t hit and the team missed the playoffs despite ranking seventh in MLB in rotation fWAR. 5. 2019- 16.4 fWAR (4th): By fWAR, this is the best rotation on this list, led by excellent seasons from Berrios and Odorizzi. However, Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson fell apart down the stretch and Pineda was suspended, leading to Dobnak starting a playoff game. 6. 2010- 14.5 fWAR (5th): Liriano finally recaptured some of his old magic this year with 5.6 fWAR and Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey were pretty good wingmen. Another bat would have helped. 7. 2015- 13.5 fWAR (5th): Seven guys contributed over 1 fWAR in the team’s return to contention led by Gibson, while Mike Pelfrey had his best Twins year. Tyler Duffey almost pitched the team to the playoffs with a 3.10 ERA down the stretch. 8. 2002- 11.2 fWAR (9th): This staff had decent depth with five starters accumulating over 1.4 fWAR, but Radke only started 21 games due to injury. Johan Santana made his first contribution, ranking third among starters in fWAR despite only fourteen starts. 9. 2003- 12.2 fWAR (6th): Joe Mays fell off a cliff this year, but Kenny Rogers, Lohse and Radke were solid (combined 8.1 fWAR) and Johan Santana sealed his rotation status (finally), posting a strikeout percentage 9.8% better than any of his rotation-mates in 110.1 innings. 10. 2014- 11.7 fWAR (7th): This was the inexplicable and record-setting Phil Hughes year, as well as the first full Gibson year where he posted 2.7 fWAR. Ricky Nolasco was supposed to stabilize the rotation but instead started his decline phase in rapid fashion. 11. 2007- 11.7 fWAR (9th): Baker emerged for 2.7 fWAR in only 23 starts. Silva and Bonser were decent while prospects Matt Garza and Slowey showed promise. 12. 2001- 10.1 fWAR (8th): This was a wasted year of peak Radke and Milton (6.7 fWAR) along with Mays’ best year. Coming off a promising 2000 season, Mark Redman was traded while Rick Reed was acquired for twelve bad starts and Matt Lawton. 13. 2009- 10.7 fWAR (10th): Baker and Blackburn were solid, and Pavano was acquired for a playoff push and contributed 1.6 fWAR in twelve starts. Brian Duensing was the savior, throwing big games down the stretch with a 2.73 ERA. He was no match for the Yankees, however. 14. 2008- 11 fWAR (9th): Another good Baker year, Nick Blackburn was the best version of himself (1.9 fWAR) as was Slowey (2.6 fWAR). Livan Hernandez barely held it together. 15. 2011- 8.5 fWAR (13th): Baker and Pavano were decent but the rest of the staff was a mess. The offense was even worse with only 4.3 combined fWAR. 16. 2018- 8.8 fWAR (8th): Gibson reemerged with 2.6 fWAR and Berrios cemented his place at the top of the rotation. Odorizzi contributed 32 solid starts. If only the fully formed Texas/Chicago Lance Lynn were pitching and not the one with a thirteen percent walk rate. 17. 1998- 11.5 fWAR (8th): Radke followed up his twenty win season with 4.2 fWAR and Bob Tewksbury threw good enough slop to post a league-average year. Mike Morgan was excellent until he was flipped at the deadline. Eric Milton got his feet wet. 18. 2022- 8.2 fWAR (10th): The team addressed its issues from 2021 and acquired Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Tyler Mahle. Gray was pretty good. 19. 2000- 9.9 fWAR (10th): Redman gave the team 24 solid starts, Radke and Milton held serve, and Sean Bergman made his (impressively bad) mark. 20. 1999- 10 fWAR (11th): Radke and Milton were solid again (combined 7.3 fWAR), Joe Mays contributed twenty decent starts, and this was, mercifully, the last year of the LaTroy Hawkins starter experience. 21. 2017- 7.1 fWAR (11th): Berrios emerged as a solid number two starter and Ervin Santana was good again. This was the Bartolo Colon year, and that speaks to the lack of talent. The wild-card loss to the Yankees also was an indicator. 22. 2013- 5.5 fWAR (Last): Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia were newcomers and as advertised, combining for 3.8 fWAR in 338 innings. This was the era of peak Sam Deduno, as well as the horrifying Vance Worley experiment. 23. 2021- 5 fWAR (14th): This is the year the team realized Griffin Jax was best suited for the bullpen. Except they had no other options and threw him out there for fourteen brutal starts. Berrios was traded, while Maeda and Pineda broke down physically. At least there was Bailey Ober. 24. 2016- 7.6 fWAR (13th): The year everything went wrong. Nolasco, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes, Tommy Millone, newcomer Berrios and Hector Santiago were all nearly unplayable and all had ten or more starts. Ervin Santana was good. 25. 2012- 3.4 fWAR (Last): This was as low as a starting staff can go, and it could have been even worse if Scott Diamond hadn’t come out of nowhere to post 2.4 fWAR in 27 starts. Cole DeVries, P.J. Walters, and Jason Marquis featured prominently. The 2023 rotation is projected for 11.9 fWAR, if you were wondering. None of these staffs had the depth this year’s crew figures to have, but the Radke and Santana-led rotations were stronger at the top. Where would you rank the 2023 rotation? View full article

Don't overhype the defending division champs coming off a season where they were gifted incredibly good health and a Twins second-half collapse. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Sports Over at Fangraphs, Dan Syzmborski has released his 2023 ZiPS projections, putting the Twins at 80 wins. They are a high variance team without question, and could have looked at adding another bullpen piece, but given the overall success of the offseason, that feels a bit low. I guess having a low floor is not appreciated by ZiPS and as we saw last year, the Twins’ floor isn’t pretty. Same goes for the White Sox who are projected for only 74 wins. Cleveland comes in at 83 wins, and some projections have them closer to 90. They’re new and interesting and clearly on the rise. But are they really that good? The title of this article will tell you what I think, although it should be noted that the Guardians played excellent ball all year in 2022 and bulldozed the Twins and White Sox in September in legitimate fashion on their way to some fun playoff moments. They were also really healthy, but more on that later. The most surprising reason Cleveland may take a step back this year is that their starting pitching has (momentarily) dried up. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are both legit and the ace argument could be made for either one, but overall this is a rotation built more on reputation than actual merit, with its combined 2022 bWAR of 12.0 ranking fourteenth in baseball, tied with the White Sox. As another point of comparison from a different era, the top four starters for the 2000 Twins posted 15.6 bWAR en route to a 69-win season. The top two on Cleveland’s staff are amazing and better than anyone the Twins have had since Johan Santana, so don’t confuse my point. But Cal Quantrill is merely a solid number three and was a liability in the playoffs. Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, who both looked like building blocks just a few years ago, have regressed significantly. “But Cleveland always finds pitching.” Yeah we’ve all heard that. But if Civale and Plesac are injured or ineffective, expect to see a lot of Konnor Pilkington, Cody Morris and Xzavion Curry to start the year. Morris looked pretty good last year, and they have good prospects coming, led by Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams. But Espino has already sustained a shoulder injury (not his first) and is doubtful to see the majors this year, while a promotion of Williams would be very aggressive. Morris is also battling an injury. In short, there seems to be a gap between what’s here at the big league level and what’s coming in 2024-2025, which is likely why both ZiPS and ESPN rank Cleveland’s starting rotation below the Twins and White Sox for 2023. Yes, you read that right. As far as the lineup is concerned, the Guardians made a name for themselves last year by spraying the ball around, stealing bases and doing “the little things.” Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, Óscar González and Andrés Giménez represent a solid top six, but they aren’t particularly imposing. They did add a couple of bats this offseason in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell. Bell can hit, and Zunino has a good defensive reputation and impressive power, hitting 31 home runs as recently as 2021. But Bell is also streaky, and Zunino is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome, which has killed more careers than torn UCLs lately. The team hit for a 99 wRC+ last year, so I don’t anticipate this turning into some elite offense even if Bell and Zunino have nice seasons. Frankly, I don’t expect the pitching to do as well, either, even if Zach Plesac is visited by three ghosts and posts a 3.20 ERA in thirty starts. The reason?. Injuries. Injuries happen to teams. There hasn’t been a team or person in history that has been able to figure out baseball injury prevention, and I don’t think the Guardians are the first. You wouldn’t know it, though. Here’s their injury report for 2022: Plesac fractured his pinkie punching the mound, missing a month. González missed a month with a strained abdomen. Franmil Reyes missed a month with a strained hamstring. Naylor missed two weeks coming back from his ankle injury in 2021. James Karinchak missed the first few months coming back from a shoulder injury. Luke Maile missed the first couple weeks of the season with a strained hamstring. Austin Hedges missed two weeks with a concussion. Civale did miss three separate months with various maladies. He was able to return and make a start in their elimination game against the Yankees, but that didn’t go great. All of the above were available for the playoffs, even if Civale wishes he wasn’t. The only one who wasn’t was reliever Anthony Gose, who needed Tommy John surgery. His was the only season ending injury. That is also the only carryover injury certain to affect a player’s 2023 status. That’s it. Cleveland losing Gose was not a major issue for them, as he was a converted outfielder with 27 career innings. By contrast, the Twins fell out of the AL Central race while losing nineteen players to season ending injury. Not all of them were crucial, but too many were. To be clear, Cleveland’s training staff isn’t nineteen times better than the Twins’, and their players aren’t nineteen times less injury prone. They also aren’t nineteen times better at playing through injury, despite what miserable Phil Mackey stans on Twitter might have you believe. Cleveland was projected for 79 wins last year, but being abnormally healthy has a way of beating projection models. Other highly healthy teams in recent memory? The 2022 Orioles and Mariners, as well as the 2021 Red Sox. Any cinderella-type team usually is accompanied by a lack of IL stints, but as the 2022 Red Sox can attest, that good fortune needs to be supplemented with additional talent or things can go south in a hurry. That’s asking a lot of Bell and Zunino. As a baseball fan, I hope Cleveland is just as healthy in 2023, because they’re a good product for the sport and their manager is a lovable legend. But a team having its entire squad available minus one fungible reliever in October is unrepeatable, a scenario about as likely as throwing two perfect games. The Twins didn’t have enough depth last year and it cost them dearly. But they still somehow came into September tied for first. There is year to year variance and then there is one of the most charmed teams in decades winning the lottery and everyone thinking they earned it. As fun as they are and as good as they look in the long-term, Cleveland will be an afterthought while Minnesota and Chicago battle for the division this year. 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The team control is what makes them more valuable but you're right, there is more present day value with Maeda Mahle an Gray. Next year is a different story but hopefully Paddack recovers well and Ober can get established.

You said it, you gotta have a little luck. Would you say the last ace pitcher the Twins drafted and developed was Radke, Erickson or Viola?

To be fair, Chase Petty had a pretty good year for the Reds, playing the year at age 19 and holding his own against much older competition. Spencer Steer looks like he has a floor of a good utility man, and made his debut last year. Christian Encarnacion-Strand looks like he almost certainly will hit, even if he ends up a 1B/DH type. He'll likely see time at the MLB level this year. Steven Hajjar was a second round pick in 2021 who has looked great thus far. He hurt his shoulder after the trade, however. Brusdar Graterol is a quality reliever at minimum. That's three MLB players and two young pitchers with upside and decent prospect pedigree. Maybe not the sexiest collection of players but still extremely valuable.

Boy, If Milwaukee only wants Ober Wallner and Martin I am all in. I would imagine Lewis, Lee and Rodriguez would need to be involved to realistically get it done.

The Twins have a lot of pretty good starters, but a true No. 1 remains the missing piece in their championship puzzle. What's the most realistic method for acquiring one? Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports With Jordan Balazovic sliding down the prospect rankings due to a tough 2022 season (and now a tough start to this 2023 spring), it appears that the number of organizational Twins pitchers who could reasonably project to being a top-tier MLB starting pitcher is down to two in Marco Raya and Connor Prielipp. Both haven’t pitched a lot due to injury, with Prielipp in particular only logging seven college starts since 2019. Raya has a small build with electric stuff, so paired with his injury history, his ability to hold up for twenty-five starts is a serious question. Teams like to have a number one starter, or “ace,” but the sad truth is that there aren’t enough to go around among the 30 teams. The Twins had a taste with Kenta Maeda’s 2020 season, and arguably Phil Hughes in 2014, but otherwise have been searching since Johan Santana left in 2008. The 2023 rotation may be the deepest the team has featured since then, but it clearly lacks a top-end guy to lead the group. By my count, there are 24 starters who could currently be described as an ace or No. 1. Here they are with projected fWAR for 2023 along with how they were acquired: Drafted or signed as international free agent: Shohei Ohtani (4.3) Shane Bieber (4.2) Triston McKenzie (3.3) Corbin Burnes (5.4) Brandon Woodruff (4.2) Alek Manoah (3.3) Julio Urias (4.0) Walker Buehler (2.9*) Logan Webb (3.7) Aaron Nola (5.0) Shane McClanahan (3.5) Trade: Luis Castillo (3.9) Dylan Cease (3.7) Joe Musgrove (3.6) Zac Gallen (2.9) Max Fried (4.0) Sandy Alcantara (3.8) Free agency: Jacob deGrom (5.7) Carlos Rodon (5.0) Gerrit Cole (4.9) Kevin Gausman (3.8) Justin Verlander (4.0) Max Scherzer (4.3) Zack Wheeler (4.7) That’s 24 guys for 30 teams. Seven teams – the Brewers, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Guardians and Mets – have two each, meaning only 10 aces remain among the other 24 teams. Most were signed or drafted, but outside of Castillo who was acquired at his peak, the trades were consummated with the future ace having had little or no major league success. Here’s why that might be the best avenue for the Twins: For starters, the draft and development approach hasn’t worked out especially well. Trading for established starters (Gray, Mahle, Maeda) has hurt the farm system, and has given the team a bevy of good, but not great, starting pitchers. All three of those trades were bold, but perhaps not bold enough. What the Twins do have, is a glut of high-minors bats who could help a team as soon as this year in Austin Martin, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Ed Julien and Brooks Lee. All are decent-to-great prospects without an obvious role on the Twins, at least this year and the next. The Twins certainly hope with their newfound depth they can avoid asking all five to contribute in Minneapolis this year, meaning the team could take the reasonable gamble of dangling one or two from that player crop to seek out some high upside young pitching. It’s time for a challenge trade. The Marlins come to mind as a trade partner, as per usual. I would imagine top 10 global prospect Eury Perez would not be available, but the Fish may still listen on Edward Cabrera if one of the higher-end Twins is involved. He was once a top-50 global prospect who posted a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts last year in his age 23 season with potentially four plus pitches. He does have a lengthy injury history, however, missing time each of the last six years. A truly bold move would be to trade Lewis for Cabrera’s teammate, Max Meyer, another former top prospect recovering from Tommy John surgery this year. Meyer was the third overall pick in the 2020 draft, and is also a Minnesotan and a Gopher if that matters to you. He has a devastating slider and a fastball with some weird gyro movement a la Josh Hader. Like Lewis, he’s a difference maker if he bounces back from injury. On the other hand, betting on injured players hasn’t gone well for the Twins in recent memory. Let’s try some other names. Tanner Houck is a little more established, although it isn’t clear the Red Sox plan to use him as a starter, despite him being effective in that role, striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings with a 3.20 ERA. A former first-round pick, Houck throws a good slider (5.9 runs above average) breaking away from righties, and a quality sinker (5.3 runs above average) that breaks away from lefties. If I’m Houck, I want to go somewhere where I can start, even if it sounds like he is interested in an extension with Boston. Nevertheless, Boston could use lineup depth with upside. Mitch Keller of the Pirates took a big leap forward this past year after appearing to stall his first few years in the league, posting a sub-four ERA in 29 starts. He’s a former top prospect and had success converting to a sinker-slider pitcher last year. It’s notable that Pittsburgh also witnessed Cole and Musgrove’s careers being put in neutral before blossoming elsewhere, but its impossible to say whether Keller has another gear (or quality third offering) in him, or if he would be the Twins seventh number two/three starter. Going for Burnes either now or at the deadline wouldn’t be the worst idea, and would make the Twins a legitimate threat in the AL. However, it might cost them three of the five position players mentioned, in addition to someone on the major-league squad like Bailey Ober, and/or 2022 breakout prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez. Trading for someone less fully formed would cost a lot less of the team’s future, and could bring in someone to win that game of pitching-ace musical chairs for a longer period. It remains a dicey proposition, though. Who would you target? Or, do you hold out hope that one of the Twins’ current crop can take the leap to ace-dom? View full article

Its a good point, speaking to their over-reliance on Judge being amazing. But I'd rather have Correa, Polanco, Miranda and Kirilloff over Rizzo, Torres, LeMahieu or Stanton. Match their Volpe and Peraza with Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis. Throw in some Ed Julien. Plus we don't have to play Donaldson, Hicks and Trevino in our lineup.

The Yankees definitely live rent free in my head. It's an illness. Stanton is toast, and the eye test confirms it. His stance has gotten increasingly awkward, he's easy to pitch to, and offers nothing outside of his bat. I think its unfortunate because I really liked Stanton and he was a top five player prior to joining the Yankees, but his descent reminds of how Miguel Cabrera turned into a slap hitter the past few years. And like Cabrera, he torches any flexibility the lineup would have without him. I'm not sure Miranda is a future All-Star, but he has power and contact ability, and Stanton is only power at this point.

The New York Yankees tend to set the benchmark for offensive greatness in the American League, and they've got the reigning MVP. However, a comparison to Minnesota's projected lineup brings the truth to light: This Yankees’ lineup is patched together with scotch tape and dreams of 2017. Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports One of the quirks of the new MLB schedule is that the Twins end up playing all of their seven games against the New York Yankees in April. The Twins have had a bit of a hard time beating the Yankees in recent decades, and last year was no exception, with New York winning five of seven games. One thing that stood out to me though, particularly in the September matchup between the teams, was how surprisingly thin New York’s lineup was. They had some key injuries by then, sure, but even when healthy only two qualified hitters posted an OPS above .800 for the year. In the offseason, they re-signed Aaron Judge and acquired Carlos Rodón to slot in behind Gerrit Cole in their rotation. Their pitching certainly looks great, but the lineup looks exactly the same, with the team putting a lot of faith in its two young shortstop prospects settling in quickly. It almost feels like we take for granted that New York will have a powerhouse lineup. Reality paints a different picture, so I thought it would be fun to look at why the Twins lineup will outperform the supposed “top ten” lineup of the Yankees. Looking at this position player group, the first thing you notice is they can’t start their best hitters if Giancarlo Stanton plays DH, his natural position. One of D.J. LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo need to sit unless you throw Stanton out to left field, and that doesn’t seem wise. Let’s run through their options in the lineup: The Yankees’ best hitter is Judge, and he makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Last year, he played like two MVP candidates in one, finishing the year with a 10.6 bWAR season. He’s amazing. Their second best hitter last year was Rizzo, who posted a 131 OPS+ with 32 home runs and mistake-free defense. He will turn 34 this summer, spent time on the IL last year, and hit .228. Torres was next best. He got some of his power back after a few down years, but maybe at the expense of being selective at the plate, with a career-low .310 OBP to go along with his 24 home runs. Here you start to see the issue. Jose Trevino fooled us for a little while, upselling a hot start into being the starting catcher in the All-Star game, but in the second half he settled back into who he is: an overly-aggressive hitter with little power but some decent contact ability who is good for an 85 OPS+. LeMahieu wasn’t very good last year with a slugging of .377, an improvement on his .362 from a year before. He still gets on base, but the drop in power is a little alarming for a guy set to turn 36 next summer. Center-fielder Harrison Bader played well for the Yankees in the playoffs, but got into only 14 games during the regular season due to a foot injury. He’s a New York guy, and he’s had a couple of 114 OPS+ seasons, but he’s not a good bet to stay healthy, having never come to the plate 450 times in a season. As for Stanton, he’s the kind of player that the team may have cut bait with if money were no object (he is still owed 175M, 20M of that paid by the Marlins). He can no longer field and he can’t run, ranking in the bottom five percent in the league by sprint speed. He also can’t stay healthy, with leg injuries decimating his career. New for 2022? He can no longer get on base, with a .297 OBP. Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson are albatrosses on this team, and they couldn’t find any takers for either contract this offseason. New York will presumably roll with the pair, who combined to hit to a .663 OPS and 23 home runs in 2022. The Yankees think both can bounce back, especially Donaldson. But he’s 37. Hicks hasn’t been good since the Rockies were making the playoffs. Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza are big-time shortstop prospects who both figure to play roles for the team in 2023, hopefully in place of Isiah Kiner-Falefa who managed only an 84 OPS+ last year. But IKF figures to still start a lot of games, at least in April. Add it all up and you have a solid-enough offense, but if Judge misses time, this lineup is listless and will rely heavily on its pitching staff to keep them in games. Even with Judge, the Twins have roughly as much top end talent with a lot more depth. Let’s confirm that going player by player. Note that this assumes Stanton starts in left field, because I’m feeling charitable. Leading off, Jorge Polanco beats out LeMahieu. Both have injury concerns but Polanco is much younger and had a much better year last year. Judge beats out Carlos Correa. Can’t do much about that. Byron Buxton beats out Rizzo, although that can change quickly based on availability. I think José Miranda is a more valuable hitter than Stanton at this point, based on performance, diversity of approach and quality of at-bats. And while Stanton’s place in the lineup costs the Yankees a bat, Miranda allows the Twins to see more of what they have in Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach at first base and DH. Torres beats out Joey Gallo pretty easily, unless you are a big believer in a Gallo bounce-back. Donaldson is ahead of Kirilloff, but only slightly. This could swing really quickly if Donaldson continues to slide, and Kirilloff emerges from Spring Training healthy. Bader beats Max Kepler, but Kepler also beats Hicks, who figures to play here whenever Stanton is DH. I’ll call this a tie. Christian Vázquez is a better hitter than Trevino. Yankees fans can take solace that their catcher is probably a better defender. Larnach and Nick Gordon both are better hitters than IKF by quite a bit. If Volpe or Peraza have strong rookie seasons and IKF heads to the bench, this is a different story. You can quibble about a few of these in both directions, but the Twins take at least five of nine, if not seven. The fact is, the Yankees are forced to play a lot of guys with a sub .700 OPS. Worse yet, none of them have any remaining upside, outside of maybe a mild bounce-back from Donaldson. The Twins have injury issues, but their depth has improved to the point that all four of their bench players could capably start on other teams, including the Yankees- outside of Ryan Jeffers. That helps. The Yankees can’t say the same, with only the shortstop prospects and Oswaldo Cabrera available as reinforcements. The Yankees, with their resources, have the luxury of deciding when they need to stop investing in their offense. The Twins don’t, and still have a better projected lineup with better fallback options. The top end pitching is a different story, however. Maybe the Twins should call Corbin Burnes to tell him they’re there for him. View full article

I just want to bring it back a smidge. Initially your claim was that using Gibson as a comp does not inspire confidence. If not Kirk Gibson, who would inspire confidence for you?

Yeah cuz Ray Lankford was awesome! Power-speed threat, OPS topped out at .996. 123 career OPS+. Good defender. Always had him on my team in video games.

A team whose biggest strength is outfield defense, yet their 8th and 9th inning guys are the lone ground ball oriented pitchers. I'm sure it'll be fine.

That 38.4 WAR not doing anything for ya?