Doctor Gast

They traded away their #1 catcher Garver, their future #1 Rortvedt and not drafting any decent catching prospects. Not leaving any competition for their hand picked backup catcher. It's make or break with Jeffers. I don't like the odds.

Or Jeffers

I thought I'd dig further into the rule 5 draft candidates. I came up with one that I liked & that's SD #9 prospect Brandon Valenzuela (C). He's 23 with an ETA of '24 and everything I like in a catcher- strong arm, good receiver, blocker, He’s long drawn praise for his ability to work with a pitching staff and a switch-hitter that has the ability to take a walk. His draw back is his hitting & although he has the size to be a power hitter he has trouble of capitalize on it. If the Twins can work with his hitting they could come up with a real gem here. Valenzuela will be taken no doubt, under the right circumstances he could be a Twin.

Thanks Cody for putting together a comprehensive article. My hope is that the Twins could find another Johann Santana in the Rule 5 draft but I really don't see one here or even to fill a gap. IMO this FO will keep it's powder dry for the waiver wire to fill any gaps.

Lopez is a work horse, Ryan & Ober have another year under their belts, where they can handle more innings, more effectively. With Varland is basicly a rookie & Paddock coming off TJ, their innings should be very limited. It'd be very prudent to bring in an outside SP to help replace Gray. Leaving Paddock & Varland as a piggy-back combo, while having Varland to start when need be. So Varland would correctly work himself into a full fledge SP role. If FO deem neccessary of obtaining a 2nd outside SP then Varland will be in the pen.

Thanks Nick for great & timely article. I have been venomously against trading Vazquez for all the reasons that you've stated above. But I'd like to add another one that people have so conviently forgotten, and that is Vazquez had the lion's share of facing RHPs at least to begin the season. Which could have kept Vazquez from really finding his groove from the start & helped Jeffers to find his. IMO sitting Vazquez during the PS, was more wanting Jeffers to have the spot light & prove to everyone that their betting the farm on Jeffers was warranted. IMO choosing Jeffers was not an inteligent decision, it was a bias & wrong one. Vazquez has a lot of post season experience at the highest level where a player like that shifts it to another gear & help the Twins further advance, Ryan was lost. The roles should have been switched but I'd give Jeffers some ABs to get his feet wet not in a situation where he'd drown.

What we learned from Polanco who'd played hurt for an extended time, you can't just heal over the off season & be 100%. I don't expect Anderson to be 100% for most of this coming season, so I wouldn't make a spot for him.

Just to let you know TopGunn That I believe that Vazquez was a contributing factor for our rotation success. Much like Molina's retirement was a contributing factor why the STL rotation faltered. Sandy Alcantra not only had a poor '23 but also had TJ surgery & will miss '24.

If you research the catchers I proposed, you'll find out that they are also very good hitters. I just think when looking at catcher you don't 1st look to see if his bat plays there but to see if his glove does.

I hope we both agree that Jeffers is not a difference maker on defense. Jeffers is a HR hitter & he hit a bunch of HRs this year but the greatest hit in his career is the opposite field single for his 1st & only career walk off. IMO he's not a difference maker offensively. This FO (for some reason) has bet the farm on Jeffers. Which has severely handicapped us. Catching is a premium position & like other premium positions you have to always draft that position to make sure you have constant adequate depth. They have haven't drafted anyone significant for years which has created this dilemma at catching. Which IMO is gross negligence. The 1st thing I look for in a catcher prospect is arm & the second is agility, the rest is icing. If I had to choose a 3rd it would be hitting in the clutch. That's why I consider Jeffers as a backup (present & future) & voiced that we need to get a strong arm, agile & that can hit, MLB ready catching prospect. My 1st was Endy Rodriguez, later he tore up the minors & debuted last season. Others are Dalton Rushing, Jefferson & Edgar Quero that should debut this season. All these have drastically went up in asking price. Others are Samuel Basallo & Kyle Teal which will debut the following year. The list of this good crop of up coming catchers are quickly getting more expensive, you can't drag your feet.

As a mid-size market team, FA isn't the answer and trades are our best option to obtain desired needs, especially now with the salary crunch. Before the Lopez/ Arraez trade, I kept advocating trades & gave trade suggestions to upgrade areas of need. Arguments against my ideas were the other teams would never trade these players, or they'd want a lot more than I suggested or we can't trade that player plus other excuses. In the end, these players were traded for less than I suggested. Yes, trading Arraez hurt, but we traded from an area of great depth to gain in an area of great need. The result was finally winning a postseason game & series. SPs are in high demand and even teams who were deep in pitching in the past are looking for SPs. To compensate for the lose of Gray, it'll take players that you mentioned. I hope that this FO are seriously considering those players you mentioned to land a top tier SP. To successfully secure a trade partner you have to correctly discover their needs. MIA is one of the best target to obtain top tier potential SPs, Their greatest needs are hitting & catching so my suggestion for trade bait is Jeffers. After I had mentioned this a ton of Vazquez offerings popped up. Vazquez will land you nobody & IF MIA agrees to Vazquez & that's a big IF, they'd want a greater value of players type that you mentioned & $ in return plus greatly downgrading our catching. Trading Jeffers would force this FO to upgrade our future catching prospective. I think the STV are viable. To reiterate, for us to land a Pablo Lopez type we need to give up a Luis Arraez type. Or keep floundering around with a bunch of redundant players.

Catcher is one of the premium positions & the most demanding. It's a shame that the catcher position is so insignificant in some people eyes & are so poorly represented in the HOF. I am so proud of what Mauer has done as a Twin & a Minnesotan. There's no doubt that Mauer is a HOFer & deserves to be inducted in the 1st ballot but I'm afraid he might have to wait. Living in Brazil I don't follow much baseball other than the Twins. I have heard of Molina but never watched him play until recently, I caught him on a U Tube video. I was totally amazed on how he was able to throw runners out while on his knees & w/ great frequency, great feel for the game, great general on the field, handling pitchers & positioning players (he was always 100% prepared before each game). There are some that question his right to be in the HOF because he doesn't have enough WAR. If they want to use total WAR as a standard, they'll have to drastically recalculate defensive WAR higher. I really admire Mauer & say he's maybe the best hitting catcher of all time. But if I had to choose between Mauer & Molina, I'd pick Molina because at catcher defense trumps hitting.

I sincerely thank you Indiana. I admit I was wrong, not only about Castro but also my assumption about this FO. It turns out that Castro was one of their 1st if not the 1st player transaction. Pointing out that the reason of hiring him was due to the poor state of pitching staff & the need of a catcher who could better handle them. That impressed me. That up to the Jeffers decision they have done a wonderful job with their catching.

Thanks Greg. I really enjoyed your series on trades. I agree w/ you that trades can be hard to really evaluate, Taylor Rogers isn't a true closer where you can't trust him to close on consecutive days. But that's how SD used him. Rogers surprised me how well he pitched in that role to begin with but was not surprising that he burned out. Rogers would have done much better if he'd stayed w/ the Twins who knew how to use him. IMO there are other Twins that would have done better if they had remained a Twin. But I plan to use your articles as a point of reference. Thanks again for your effort you put into it.

I really don't trust deadline trades especially for pitchers.

Carmargo is not a fast riser, therefore it'll take awhile for him to adjust to the MLB. Although I like Carmargo's arm better than Jeffers still Carmargo's defense is not that great. Carmargo could be a good 3rd string MLB catcher but not backup. With Jeffers arm & averageish defense, I've always considered Jeffers as backup catcher that can run into a hitting streak here & there. Vazquez is a starting catcher that I expect his hitting will rebound this coming season. As of right now we are not over the minimal estimated reduced budget. That means forget about FAs & focus on trades (that's where the opportunity is at). That way we aren't forced to cut neccessary salary. To obtain a SP to replace Gray we need to trade players who have topped out with pretty good trade value. Jeffers IMO is one of the best candidate. Then I'd look for an eliteish MLB catching prospect to significantly upgrade our catching future. I didn't agree w/ the salary they gave Vazquez but that's what FO deemed fair. But Vazquez mentoring an elite catching prospect for 2 yrs, he'd be worth every penny & then some.

I for one will hate to see Kepler leave. If we keep him this year, he'll be our best cOF by having a constantly good season. But odds are that'll be gone the last day of ST like Rogers. Hope they find a good home for him (not NYY, unless Rowson can revolutionize their hitting philosophy).

We largely won the division because of the hiring of Paparesta & listening to him. Our biggest problem in the past was the over-extending of players, they became ineffective, hurt & then ran to the ground & in the 2nd half into the PS they were shot and then blamed it on rotten luck. Next was finally finding a true CF to sub Buxton and this year proved especially important. The FO believes a position is determined by his bat, not his glove. According to them Cave was a great Buxton sub & was very hesitant to move him off the position & Polanco was a great SS. Thirdly, was the hiring of Vazquez which IMO Correa had a lot to do with. Vazquez raised the catching staff from the toilets to average and helped raise the pitching staff from average to top tier. Fourthly. Royce Lewis. He bucked the hitting philosophy & lit the ballpark on fire. This FO inherited a top-tier catching staff. 1st Castro/ Garver, later Garver/ Jeffers/ Rortvedt. I supposed that they thought a top-tier catching staff was too much of a luxury so they totally dismantled it. Because backup Jeffers embraced their hitting philosophy they decided to go all in on him, '22 was the result of that. Twins like to serve us their Kool-Aid like the long list of injuries year after year is just rotten luck, defense isn't important. Cave is a great CF sub, and Polanco is a great SS, These ideas were changed because writers & fans challenged these ideas, they didn't drink the Kool-Aid. CF, SS & catcher are premium positions we need to be deep in quality players at these positions throughout the organization. We have absolutely no catchers of value in our system, our best hope are still years away. Jeffers isn't a great catcher, IMO he's not a starting catcher, definitely not worth totally depending on him for the next 5+ yrs w/o having any decent backup plan. Our catching situation is dire & nothing will change if we keep drinking the Kool-Aid that Jeffers is a great catcher. Actually, things will get worse because that perception will lead us to lose Vazquez. We should have traded for an elite catching prospect back when they dismantled our top tier catching corp. So please stop drinking the Kool-Aid.

Trading Vazquez still makes no sense as far as cutting the budget. You'll end up paying someone to take him plus paying a Leon type to fill in as backup. Any savings would be minimal the difference in overall loss in talent would be Immense.

IDK I could be wrong but LAA is a big market team that likes to throw big money at players like Trout, Ohtani & Rendon. It's hard for me to believe that LAA pitchers don't have access to top analytical equipement. MIA & PIT are small market but even PIT is trying to improve.

You'd think so, but after this FO was showered with accolades in '19 for breaking the MLB season HR record (largely due to the juiced ball) by focusing on big bats, it all went to their heads & they got their "high", It's like being hooked on a drug. you have no sense of reality. you constantly search down the same avenue to try to regain the same feeling,

I don't trust this FO to get this right. My hope is Correa, who is stuck here & wants to win, would sit down & have a serious conversation with this FO to set them straight. Because IMO this FO is more concerned about having the appearance of being smart than winning.

What are these teams need? & how do these proposed trades meet those needs. How do we know that they'd be interested in what we have to offer? But it's a nice try.

Prerequisite is that they can really play CF not only CF is on their resume`. That leaves us with Dylan Carlson or Mickey Moniak. I'm leaning towards Carlson. I like how STL develop their defense.

Polanco was scouted as above avg. speed for SS which has quickness & athleticism. But Polanco didn't have the arm or ankles to play the left side. Yet that's where he played & suffered for several years & having ankle surgeries after some painful seasons. Polanco played hurt most of his career not because he's injury prone but because he wasn't allowed time off to heal which plagued his fielding & hitting. When playing healthy his #s reflected it. In '23 he didn't have ST when he started up he wasn't 100% & his #s reflected that but as he progressed in his recovery, conditioning, vamping up to find his rythym his #s trended upward. In '24 he should be 100% & able to play above average 2B & that's where he should play if he's not traded. IMO it's a waste to have him play 1B & he's not tall enough to profile at that position.