Doctor Gast

I agree with you Riverbrian that BTV is not perfect but gives you a ballpark idea. BTV can be off on some players but in general they're pretty close & I like to use them. Even real time trade don't match up depending how motivated they are to sell or buy or they were going to DFA some players anyway so they were willing to overpay to get a desired player and sometimes the FO is just dumb. Still for every deal I accept I decline 10 because they don't line up to what I feel the team needs.

The feeling I got was when they mentioned looking to clear Kepler, Polanco, Farmer & Vazquez salary due to trade, to me it sounds that the salary they cut from trading these guys they will go out & look for a FAs. If this is their focus then this is a recipe for disaster. Trying to find a SP to replace Gray in FA won't work it never has. Trading anyone of these players especially Vazquez will create a big hole if they are looking to trade all of them the hole will be insurmountable. If they want to destroy the Twins & their fanbase this would be good way to do it. Just when you see them making good off season trades with Gray & Lopez you think they finally got things right. I hope I don't see them go back to their old pitiful ways.

Thanks Nick we all know that this is some sort of play. Part of it is not having fan yell at them when they didn't go out & signed Gray or Maeda. We'll see how the rest of it plays out.

Trade value is often based on how well you hit & not how good you are at you position. Because of where his trade value is right now it's enough to get us close to a Lopez type starter with hopes of further developing him. Overall Jeffers would be considered a good catcher, IMO his defense leaves much to be desired to meet our need in being a competitive team now & in the future. He's considered a hitting catcher but one good full season doesn't sell me on who he is & as I've stated before good defense trumps good hitting. Nevertheless I still want a very good defensive catcher that can hit

Sorry I thought Murphy still qualified as a rookie in '22. The trade was a win/win/win everybody got what they wanted but there was no doubt that MIL won the deal by what they gave up & turning Contreras into an all around elite catcher

My 1st target that I suggested in the beginning of last off-season was Endy Rodriguez (PIT) debuted last season (he'll be expensive), Edgar Quero (that I blogged about) that LAA traded cheap to CWS I doubt is available, Jefferson Quero (MIL) is reasonable according to BTV & IMO he could be ready in '24, MIL is deep in catching and have a great catching program, so they should be open for a trade especially if we throw in a catcher like Cossetti whom they can develop into a more well rounded catcher, Dalton Rushing (LAD) who have been blocked by a very deep Dodgers, LAD should be open to deal but Rushing's stock just took a big jump, he should debut this year w/ the Twins if he's traded. Samuel Basallo (BAL) BAL is loaded also in good catching so he could be available but he won't debut until '25 at the soonest. Kyle Teal (BOS) Teal won't debut until '25. The best opportunity is Drew Romo (CO) he hurt his hand that brought his production down & so did his value but his production went back up so he's ok, he'll debut this year, Cole Carrigg (CO) will debut in '25 earliest. Both BOS & CO are bad in catching so we'd have to be creative, if they trade away either catchers they'll need a more experienced catcher in return in a 3-way trade. Vazquez is crucial in mentoring any of these guys, so I'll definitely keep him. Does anyone else have any very good/ elite catching prospects that can hit options they'd like to share?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/braves-acquire-sean-murphy.html Yes this article is history, but it's very relevant today. The Braves have been considered by many as the top organization in baseball. An organization that if we want to progress as a team, we need to study & emulate. Here we see the Braves who had an all-star hitting catcher in William Contreras concocted a complex trade to gain an elite defensive rookie who can hit. Many would question why trade away an all-star established hitting catcher? what more could you ask for? Maybe in Fantasy Baseball, defense doesn't count but in the real world it does, especially catcher and the Braves know this. The Braves had developed Contreras as much as they could defensively which made them to decide to upgrade defensively. Sean Murphy fits that bill for many years to come. The Twins have a slightly below average defensive catcher that is evaluated as a potential good hitting catcher, Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers had a good rookie season hitting but the following 2 yrs were not so good. Granted he had a pretty good hitting season in "23 but in '24 he's due to regress, How much? is anyone's guess. Twins have placed all their hope in Jeffers and tried their best to sell that to the fanbase. But is Jeffers the type of catcher a World Series aspiring team would want to command their playing field for years to come? By this example that have been given the answer would be no. I admire the way the Braves saw a real need that many would overlook & took a proactive approach. How I wish the Twins could see their deep void at catching that reaches deep down into their system & proactively make a serious decision to uprade their entire system. With Jeffers trade value being at all time high, now is a good time to trade him to help fill our present & future needs, #1 front-line SP, #2 very good/ elite MLB ready defensive catcher that can hit, that Vazquez can mentor. View full rumor

Free angency isn't the answer especially in our situation. I like trading for Keller, IMO PIT will still be hesitant to trade Keller & will try to extend him, if they do trade Keller they'll want viable SP prospects in return. Which could be hard for us to do.

Yes Garver was on his way out of #1 but Garver's defense was just as good as Jeffers if not debatibly better & was a better hitter. NYY even deep in catching saw Rortvedt's potential. Rortvedt is an excellent defensive catcher that once started to focus on his hitting he was showing progress & as a LH hitter he'd prove to be very useful offensively. But he got stuck in the NYY system & they wrecked him. Jeffers that had more years of availibilty & more experience than Rortvedt was a much more valuable trade piece than Garver & Rortvedt combined. IMO Jeffers was not even close as one to be traded. We went from top tier to toilet with 0 depth in that trade. If we didn't get Vazquez & we had to depend on Jeffers as our primary catcher again this last year our catching would still be in the toilet & our rotation would not have noticeably acheived what they had.

They traded away their #1 catcher Garver, their future #1 Rortvedt and not drafting any decent catching prospects. Not leaving any competition for their hand picked backup catcher. It's make or break with Jeffers. I don't like the odds.

Or Jeffers

I thought I'd dig further into the rule 5 draft candidates. I came up with one that I liked & that's SD #9 prospect Brandon Valenzuela (C). He's 23 with an ETA of '24 and everything I like in a catcher- strong arm, good receiver, blocker, He’s long drawn praise for his ability to work with a pitching staff and a switch-hitter that has the ability to take a walk. His draw back is his hitting & although he has the size to be a power hitter he has trouble of capitalize on it. If the Twins can work with his hitting they could come up with a real gem here. Valenzuela will be taken no doubt, under the right circumstances he could be a Twin.

Thanks Cody for putting together a comprehensive article. My hope is that the Twins could find another Johann Santana in the Rule 5 draft but I really don't see one here or even to fill a gap. IMO this FO will keep it's powder dry for the waiver wire to fill any gaps.

Lopez is a work horse, Ryan & Ober have another year under their belts, where they can handle more innings, more effectively. With Varland is basicly a rookie & Paddock coming off TJ, their innings should be very limited. It'd be very prudent to bring in an outside SP to help replace Gray. Leaving Paddock & Varland as a piggy-back combo, while having Varland to start when need be. So Varland would correctly work himself into a full fledge SP role. If FO deem neccessary of obtaining a 2nd outside SP then Varland will be in the pen.

Thanks Nick for great & timely article. I have been venomously against trading Vazquez for all the reasons that you've stated above. But I'd like to add another one that people have so conviently forgotten, and that is Vazquez had the lion's share of facing RHPs at least to begin the season. Which could have kept Vazquez from really finding his groove from the start & helped Jeffers to find his. IMO sitting Vazquez during the PS, was more wanting Jeffers to have the spot light & prove to everyone that their betting the farm on Jeffers was warranted. IMO choosing Jeffers was not an inteligent decision, it was a bias & wrong one. Vazquez has a lot of post season experience at the highest level where a player like that shifts it to another gear & help the Twins further advance, Ryan was lost. The roles should have been switched but I'd give Jeffers some ABs to get his feet wet not in a situation where he'd drown.

What we learned from Polanco who'd played hurt for an extended time, you can't just heal over the off season & be 100%. I don't expect Anderson to be 100% for most of this coming season, so I wouldn't make a spot for him.

Just to let you know TopGunn That I believe that Vazquez was a contributing factor for our rotation success. Much like Molina's retirement was a contributing factor why the STL rotation faltered. Sandy Alcantra not only had a poor '23 but also had TJ surgery & will miss '24.

If you research the catchers I proposed, you'll find out that they are also very good hitters. I just think when looking at catcher you don't 1st look to see if his bat plays there but to see if his glove does.

I hope we both agree that Jeffers is not a difference maker on defense. Jeffers is a HR hitter & he hit a bunch of HRs this year but the greatest hit in his career is the opposite field single for his 1st & only career walk off. IMO he's not a difference maker offensively. This FO (for some reason) has bet the farm on Jeffers. Which has severely handicapped us. Catching is a premium position & like other premium positions you have to always draft that position to make sure you have constant adequate depth. They have haven't drafted anyone significant for years which has created this dilemma at catching. Which IMO is gross negligence. The 1st thing I look for in a catcher prospect is arm & the second is agility, the rest is icing. If I had to choose a 3rd it would be hitting in the clutch. That's why I consider Jeffers as a backup (present & future) & voiced that we need to get a strong arm, agile & that can hit, MLB ready catching prospect. My 1st was Endy Rodriguez, later he tore up the minors & debuted last season. Others are Dalton Rushing, Jefferson & Edgar Quero that should debut this season. All these have drastically went up in asking price. Others are Samuel Basallo & Kyle Teal which will debut the following year. The list of this good crop of up coming catchers are quickly getting more expensive, you can't drag your feet.

As a mid-size market team, FA isn't the answer and trades are our best option to obtain desired needs, especially now with the salary crunch. Before the Lopez/ Arraez trade, I kept advocating trades & gave trade suggestions to upgrade areas of need. Arguments against my ideas were the other teams would never trade these players, or they'd want a lot more than I suggested or we can't trade that player plus other excuses. In the end, these players were traded for less than I suggested. Yes, trading Arraez hurt, but we traded from an area of great depth to gain in an area of great need. The result was finally winning a postseason game & series. SPs are in high demand and even teams who were deep in pitching in the past are looking for SPs. To compensate for the lose of Gray, it'll take players that you mentioned. I hope that this FO are seriously considering those players you mentioned to land a top tier SP. To successfully secure a trade partner you have to correctly discover their needs. MIA is one of the best target to obtain top tier potential SPs, Their greatest needs are hitting & catching so my suggestion for trade bait is Jeffers. After I had mentioned this a ton of Vazquez offerings popped up. Vazquez will land you nobody & IF MIA agrees to Vazquez & that's a big IF, they'd want a greater value of players type that you mentioned & $ in return plus greatly downgrading our catching. Trading Jeffers would force this FO to upgrade our future catching prospective. I think the STV are viable. To reiterate, for us to land a Pablo Lopez type we need to give up a Luis Arraez type. Or keep floundering around with a bunch of redundant players.

Catcher is one of the premium positions & the most demanding. It's a shame that the catcher position is so insignificant in some people eyes & are so poorly represented in the HOF. I am so proud of what Mauer has done as a Twin & a Minnesotan. There's no doubt that Mauer is a HOFer & deserves to be inducted in the 1st ballot but I'm afraid he might have to wait. Living in Brazil I don't follow much baseball other than the Twins. I have heard of Molina but never watched him play until recently, I caught him on a U Tube video. I was totally amazed on how he was able to throw runners out while on his knees & w/ great frequency, great feel for the game, great general on the field, handling pitchers & positioning players (he was always 100% prepared before each game). There are some that question his right to be in the HOF because he doesn't have enough WAR. If they want to use total WAR as a standard, they'll have to drastically recalculate defensive WAR higher. I really admire Mauer & say he's maybe the best hitting catcher of all time. But if I had to choose between Mauer & Molina, I'd pick Molina because at catcher defense trumps hitting.

I sincerely thank you Indiana. I admit I was wrong, not only about Castro but also my assumption about this FO. It turns out that Castro was one of their 1st if not the 1st player transaction. Pointing out that the reason of hiring him was due to the poor state of pitching staff & the need of a catcher who could better handle them. That impressed me. That up to the Jeffers decision they have done a wonderful job with their catching.

Thanks Greg. I really enjoyed your series on trades. I agree w/ you that trades can be hard to really evaluate, Taylor Rogers isn't a true closer where you can't trust him to close on consecutive days. But that's how SD used him. Rogers surprised me how well he pitched in that role to begin with but was not surprising that he burned out. Rogers would have done much better if he'd stayed w/ the Twins who knew how to use him. IMO there are other Twins that would have done better if they had remained a Twin. But I plan to use your articles as a point of reference. Thanks again for your effort you put into it.

I really don't trust deadline trades especially for pitchers.