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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    Maybe fair ... I might have said that Falvey should be willing to take even more risks. I thought the trades for Gray, Mahle, and Lopez displayed risk. I liked the Mahle trade because I thought the Twins had an outside chance. We don't really know how the Twins missed the severity of his shoulder issue. The Twins wanted a shortstop and IKF for Garver was a simple trade, not really a big trade and both players have finished 2022 with their status declining. The trade with the Yankees was to rid the team from Donaldson's salary. Three Yankees, most notably Cole, wouldn't throw to Sanchez. Gio is a nice complementary player. I think the Yankees took on all of the risk there. I also still do not understand the San Diego trade because we paid for Rogers' contract and took on a guy that was likely to be released and a guy with a specific injury diagnosis. I didn't mind moving on from Roger but it would have saved $11 million if the Twins had just released Rogers. So I agree that Falvey has taken some risks. We may just disagree on what trades were risky-no problem. Mainly, it is important for Falvey to continually evolve (I'm sure he does to some extent) and not get tied to players he traded for. I still like Kepler but sometimes wonder if he is sick of playing for the Twins.
  2. tony&rodney
    I argued for acquiring Bassitt last winter. He is a really good pitcher. I immediately thought .... Would Edwin Diaz be a more effective contribution for the same amount of money as allocated to Bassitt?
  3. tony&rodney
    A lower payroll makes sense, for sure. If the Twins want to slash payroll they don't really need Boxberger, Leon, or Inglesias though, saving near $6M. They could also trade Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Paddack, and J. Lopez for an additional $32 million in savings. Falvey seems unlikely to part with his pet acquisitions but I do think a lower payroll, as you suggested, is possible.
  4. tony&rodney
    Rodon is a gamble that the Twins should take because the need is there. Miami is an interesting trade partner, potentially. I want Pablo Lopez and Edward Cabrera and would send them a ton in return. Guys like Larnach, Jeffers, Mahle, or others; some combination that the Marlins find useful. Gray pitched reasonably effective innings for the Twins but he also threw less than 120 innings. Ober and Winder are guys I like but they will be doubtful for significant innings going forward and maybe more useful in the pen. Adding talent at the top of the rotation will cost the Twins and I'm hoping it can be done while holding onto their best athletes/defenders. Just because the Twins gave up a bundle of guys to get Gray, Mahle, and J. Lopez is not a reason to hang onto them in the future when it may be possible to improve the staff with new additions. Falvey needs to be open and take some risks.
  5. tony&rodney
    Eventually a team that leans toward using starting pitchers less will experiment with a four man rotation. It seems inevitable. The Twins should consider this idea. The use of long relievers is dependent on having 3-4 middle innings pitchers who can throw effectively twice each week or every third or fourth day. This allows for 2-3 innings from the six short inning relief pitchers in the example. The potential problems are doubleheaders, rain delays, and those times when a pitcher is ineffective. Injuries are a constant as well. Short outings of 4-5 innings from a starting pitcher as a general practice puts a notable stress load on the pitching staff which results in predictable bad stretches. A real additional concern is that most starting pitchers do feel that the application of TTTO is poorly applied. The pitcher is pulled after five effective innings despite a scenario where inning six usually has batters 5-7 leading off the inning. The effect on morale is relatively unknown but we have seen the lack of enthusiasm from several Twins towards their manager. Finally, I believe the Twins need to add a minimum of two starting pitchers to slot in before Joe Ryan. Talent plays and it also carries a steep price.
  6. tony&rodney
    Call Miami and offer Larnach, Jeffers, Mahle, J. Lopez, and Miller for P. Lopez and Cabrera. Maybe add a milb pitcher like Legumina. Sign Rodon for 5/$125 million and then Ryan can be your #3 and Gray can be your #5.
  7. tony&rodney
    If the Twins had a $175 million payroll they could roster Correa and Judge.
  8. tony&rodney
    Simmons is no longer available. He signed a five year contract to play with a senior team in Curacao.
  9. tony&rodney
    Why did it seem like Kepler was unhappy the last year? No idea but his body language and facial expressions were definitely not one of a guy who enjoyed his job. Does this matter at all? The crux of the matter remains whether any other team finds Kepler (or any Twin) appealing and potentially useful and worthy of acquiring via a trade. TD went over this same question last year and Miami was a prime contact suggestion. The Twins could use a RH bat for the corner outfield and have some LH bats (others too) that they could give up. The Twins need to find out if Miami or Colorado, for example, have any interest in Kepler, etc. Maybe the Twins need to find out what state Kepler is in mentally too. I'm hopeful that Kepler rebounds with two years that eclipse anything he has accomplished thus far in his career.
  10. tony&rodney
    Like that this roster turns towards some new faces, but it does seem challenging to push the payroll past $150M. Trades may bring in a couple of players at less cost. Fair ideas at a higher cost though.
  11. tony&rodney
    No.
  12. tony&rodney
    Julien has some sneaky strength in his bat. I watched quite a few of his at bats this past season and he has an uncanny eye at the plate. I counted at least ten times this past season where he was wrung up on 3-2 pitches that were clearly well out of the zone. His swing looks awkward when he does swing at pitches out of the zone which seems to indicate that he has a strong idea of his strengths and weaknesses. He hits the ball hard on a pretty consistent basis, so I would say he is a different hitter than Arraez who has incredible bat to ball skills. Julien might be a better hitter than Miranda and he is already a better base runner although he won't likely steal as many bases as he gets MLB time. It is difficult to know where Julien would play on the field but if he hits and gets on base like he has in AA and in the Arizona Fall League, the Twins will find a slot for him. Finally, while the Twins need more defensive minded position players it sure seems like Julien is someone who has improved his K rate and would benefit from the better umpires at the highest level. Julien may be that rare hitter who maintains his batting success as he moves up.
  13. tony&rodney
    I totally agree with this idea, but he would likely be costly. Put aside the trade site that has Larnach worth 50% more than Arraez for a moment and consider how useful the Orioles (any team) find a talent like Mateo. Mateo was moved around and never given much playing time until the Orioles put him in the lineup. Mateo would be a good addition if he can be acquired cheaply just because he can be a non-factor at times offensively. It is really hard to gage what Mateo is worth in my opinion.
  14. tony&rodney
    The article just points to the need for the Twins to sign a shortstop. Will they? This post aligns with the posting that asks why the Twins wouldn't just sign Correa long term. It's Falvey's decision. If the Twins want to just go with what they have, Lee would likely be their steadiest option but he has only played a few games at AA. That gamble might work if the starting staff was rebuilt through a trade plus a free agent addition as well as a bullpen piece added.
  15. tony&rodney
    If money is going to be such a big impediment every year then Correa doesn't fit. If the budget is up to around $150 million for 2023, Correa fits. I would like to see the Twins have Correa at shortstop. My primary concern is that the Twins become more skilled on defense and more athletic overall. While Correa is a plodder, he does know how to run the bases and his presence would allow our Lewis, Martin, Lee group to grow into the game. There are players to trade or drop that would pare back the dollars by quite a bit. I don't expect Falvey to part with players he has added. In fact, i would be surprised. I am just a fan though and would not miss all of Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Paddack, Pagan, and Lopez. These players in addition to a couple others (Arraez, Jeffers, Larnach) could bring back something depending on whether there are any teams having an interest. I expect the team will return mostly intact and judging from many comments this is a preference from fans too. Correa seems like a reasonable bet for six decent and two declining seasons. So 9/290 might be the number.
  16. tony&rodney
    This is exactly correct. Trade him if you can but release him if there are not any takers. Same with Paddack.
  17. tony&rodney
    I like Hand but if you drop Hand and include Jovani Moran, you get Diaz without ruining your budget. Moran is good and getting better.
  18. tony&rodney
    I put a quick team together when this first came out and almost immediately made another one that was different and included Edwin Diaz. I paid him $20 million. It will be interesting to see how MLBTradeRumors pegs Diaz salary. I think Diaz would be an excellent addition for the Twins.
  19. tony&rodney
    Yes, thank you. I do know how WAR is calculated. I'm aware of the idea. People often take WAR as a value of a player, however, and this is not accurate. No team would sign Urshela for $18.9 million and the Twins may part ways with a really good player like Urshela over a possible salary of $9.2 million.
  20. tony&rodney
    Enlow is likely kept and I hope the Twins keep Stashak, but I think he gets left off the 40 person squad.
  21. tony&rodney
    I missed what expansion team did that.
  22. tony&rodney
    WAR is a fair number for relative value but it is time to totally and completely dismiss the financial value that Fangraphs, which I have read since its origination, attaches to the number. The WAR for the Twins gives us a value of more than $250 million for this years team. Enough said. Urshela presents a dilemma because his expected contract is reasonable and he has proven to be quite a good player the last few years, but there are questions about how to allocate budget, who plays where, and do certain players have any trade value. I believe the Twins should keep Urshela if their payroll will be at or above $140 million. He is a good player and unlikely to return a prospect or player of significant value.
  23. tony&rodney
    Pohlad doesn't have much of an interest in baseball. He is generally active in the community, a good business man, and baseball is a good business. If the team begins to lose money, Pohlad will raise an eyebrow. He has more important concerns in his life.
  24. tony&rodney
    Luis Arraez totally agrees with this statement. However, a healthy Jorge Polanco is a better player in the field, on the bases, and at the plate. So there is the dilemma and the answer to why Luis Arraez played first base so often this season. Can the team benefit from a trade of one of these two players? Both are very talented and exciting players who could be amazing for years. Both have injury backgrounds and questions about health. This is an example of where Falvey proves he is capable (or not).
  25. tony&rodney
    LF. SS. Time to find out if he can play.
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