tony&rodney

Nick covered just about everything here. Julien appears to be the best choice to maintain or improve on his first year. In the minor leagues he had a higher BABIP and also improved at each level to varying degrees. He may also be working on both strength and flexibility this winter. Julien is a good bet for me. Lewis had such good stats the last few years that he seems to have figured some things out. The chance for regression is certainly there for Royce but his determination and focus will be keen after missing so much time due to injuries. Lewis has a good vision of what it is like to be sidelined and missed opportunities, which may be a real force in his drive to succeed. Wallner is an unknown to some extent. He just destroys some balls and flails wildly at other times. His progression shows steady improvement and an ability to adapt after stretches where he slumps. Wallner is another player who may return from a winter of working on self-improvement to have a strong second year. As a few other people have pointed out, good health and increased performance from other players (all of Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, and Polanco) could be a big factor in helping the three guys noted in this article towards a better year in 2024.

Hopefully someone we have never have never heard of that is actually competent.

Anyone who considers the difficulty of the catcher position and knows baseball puts Joe Mauer in the Hall of Fame right away. We will find out soon enough though. On numerous occasions I have read national writers wonder why Mauer was so reviled in Minnesota due to the comments they read on blogs and more generally the articles by local writers. I believe the nastiness of the local commentary gets blown way out of context by national writers but the reference is a stain that has never made any sense at all.

Great magazine with always interesting material - thank you. I did subscribe to it for years. Thomas Piketty, a French economist, has a couple of tremendous books out. He writes on public economics and inequality, but has a positive take on a general improvement from 1750 -1980, but a flat line since. Baseball could be seen as a part of that work to a limited extent.

This discussion is interesting but displays a few too many unfounded concerns as well as some worrying thoughts. The Dodgers have not been ceded the pennant any more than the San Diego Padres were in 2023. MLB is set up pretty much the way the owners want it to work. The MLBPA had to work hard to organize and get the CBA that is in existence today. A reference was dropped to CEO pay and there are many various numbers to cite, one recent one was 254 times the average worker pay. Nobody can dispute that there exists extreme excess of material goods as well as income disparity in the country. The myths of free market and supply demand do not hold up at all, much less the concept of the self made person who succeeded without the help of anyone else as if there is some type of magical vacuum. The public support for stadiums has been a practice since long before the Roman Colosseum. Corporations have benefitted from this same largesse throughout our country's history, from before the railroads to oil companies today and everything in between. Our civilization makes collective choices. Some we agree with, others we disagree with, and still others we pretend don't exist or ignore. Some like our system of massive freeways because cars allow for more independence. We have an issue with mental health and homelessness which is largely ignored. There are a host of issues that are all a part of our collective choice as a country and yet it still remains a fair place to live and where many of us were born and own property. MLB is doing relatively well and the players are also doing relatively well as are all of the owners. The Twins and a number of other teams have entered an era where new media monies need to be sourced. This issue has been brewing for a while and any of the teams could have anticipated this in their planning. The large market teams have always had a clear advantage but teams like St. Louis still manage despite their situation. Baseball will make changes when the specter of financial loss or more accurately less gain looks like a thing to the owners. A massive strike where the owners attempt to break the union will not occur because of the threat of losing their anti-trust exemption and the fact that many billionaires would love to take over the teams. I'm excited for the 2024 season, the rookies who will make their mark, the Twins players who will all exceed their expectations, and the exciting AL Central Division race. I will also be keen to follow the minor league players via milb.com and in person. The Dodgers are not even close to a concern for me. In fact, I'm keen to see Yamamoto pitch. Let's all be happy.

Your point about Vegas is well taken. I don't bet and don't know a thing about +400 and so on. I'm only noting that in baseball the winning percentages of the worst teams are always much higher than in football. The winning percentages of the best football teams are also higher than the best baseball teams. I saw that only five MLB have not won a World Series, but twelve NFL teams have not won a Super Bowl. You are correct to argue/point out that these leagues have quite different financial structures. This can almost certainly be credited to how the owners of the teams in each league wanted their organizations to work. Some credit is due to leadership or lack of leadership from the commissioners in each league as well. The MLBPA has managed guaranteed contracts, something their brethren players in the NFL do not have. So the differences make comparisons relative really. MLB still has an anti-trust exemption that defies reason yet still exists. If you are a betting man I would try not to bet too much moola on the Dodgers to win it all in 2024. Texas, Houston, Baltimore, and Minnesota all still look good to me from the AL.

It appears that the 2022 deadline trades thinned the farm system without a decent return and that this has put the Twins in a tight position. The Twins are in a position to win and compete in the playoffs. They seem to need a few pieces but would likely hurt themselves going forward by trading prospects. It is a Catch-22. The guys noted most commonly as trade pieces (Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, and Vazquez) are players needed to help the team win now. An added difficulty is the loss of media monies. All of this means that it becomes more difficult to compete with deep pocket teams, but it can be done. Any trade should attempt to return a player that still has 3-6 years left before free agency. If the Twins are looking just to clear a Polanco contract, I would hope the return is a player who will be around for awhile (prospect). These deals are what you encourage for small to mid market teams. Still, a team like the Twins have found themselves in a tough spot and they may need to wait a year before making any big trades.

We can likely agree that our idea of how MLB is run seems odd, but the owners seem to love the arrangement and the MLBPA sees a strong guarantee of contracts for the players. The negotiated settlement keeps both sides relatively happy i guess. We are pretty sure that the owners will not agree to a salary floor amenable to the players and the players will not agree to a salary ceiling that suits the owners.

Warren Spahn & Hank Aaron were my first favorite players but the Twins came to Bloomington, not far from my house, and Lenny Green became my favorite as I became a Twins fan in 1961. It was easy to go to games. My other favorite players were Sandy Koufax and Willie Mays. I met Tony Oliva in 1964 when he replaced Green, who had been traded, as my favorite player. I met Rod Carew in 1967. I know we have some guys who have been watching and going to baseball games much longer than me and had favorite teams and players before the Twins arrived. There are also a ton of really good Twins fans who grew up with Kirby and Joe Mauer as well as diehard teenage fans today. It lives on.

I don't think the Twins are in on Seattle unless they trade one of Lee or Lewis. We are all just guessing.

That first sentence is ..... Maybe Carolina and a few other teams could play 162 games so that the difference is noticeable. Swings ..... 1991 Twins? 2023 Diamondbacks. I'm not a fan of football but when I was fairly young the Vikings were ridiculously dominant. I seem to remember that they beat the Lions for about 20 years. Again, I don't know but were there teams like New England, San Francisco, and Dallas who won more than a few football games (SB)? The Texas Rangers won the World Series in 2023. Who won the Super Bowl and was that their first one? Parity between baseball and football is as simple as winning percentage.

Wait. You just compared Wong to Polanco? I can't remember which year Wong was the starting shortstop in an All Star Game? Oh, sorry, he only played 1 game in his career at shortstop. In fairness, Wong was once a good second baseman and Polanco is no longer a shortstop. They are different players, but nobody should be confusing Polanco in any way with Wong or the gang of four in Seattle now. The Twins have a guy that Seattle might be interested in but the Twins might not be interested in trading him in Royce Lewis. People should not be so quick to slight Polanco in their hopes of trades or hoping to save money.

Ohtani doesn't make as much money as the top CEOs. Salaries are a choice of a society, just like homelessness. Any country with means can choose to make things different if the will exists. Things are what they are because of the collective decision. Stadiums, corporations, schools, you name it have been publicly funded for a very long time. The Dodgers signing Ohtani because he wants to live in Los Angeles and Yamamoto because of the allure of being on the same team as Ohtani seems very natural. Did anyone expect otherwise? I sure did not. My best guess is that the games will still be played and Kansas City will sweep the Dodgers in a series with little notice. Meanwhile the Detroit Pistons, the San Jose Sharks, and Carolina Panthers among numerous other teams will be much less competitive in their leagues than the lowest MLB team.

The Twins need to know that there must be options for CF and 1B. However, we shouldn't lump these two players together. Alex and Byron have had different injuries. Lewis and Buxton aren't necessarily a good comparison either but likely a closer match. Buxton had pretty full seasons in 2013 and 2017. Kirilloff in 2018. Lewis in 2018 and 2019. My best guess is that we can bet more on Lewis and Kirilloff than Buxton for 2024. All three carry risks. Buxton was hindered by his base (legs) last year to an extreme. His swing wasn't playable. Any production from Byron this year will need to come with a rebuilt swing. Buck still has the quickness, speed, and power to seduce anyone, including Baldelli and Falvey. The production will be an unknown we live with until the results show up on the field. While I might hope he gets MVP votes and believe the talent is there, I wouldn't bet $1 on any end. I am hopeful.

After watching the challenges in minor league games I timed several out of curiosity for how long they took. The batter, pitcher, or catcher must indicate immediately a challenge and then a replay is shown to indicate ball or strike. This process was very fast, quite impressive, but less than half a minute. The umpires get graded on misses and I believe they bear down more. I believe that umpires in the playoffs are more accurate too. Personally, I'm not a fan of so many challenges and if New York cannot make the call in 20 seconds, the call on the field should stand. Additionally, I would like umpires to be rewarded for their excellence and demoted if necessary due to continually poor performance. Umpires in baseball are generally very good. One of the practices that seems to be mostly disappearing and should be gone altogether are those calls that favor stars or go against a rookie.

It's ok, you are primarily a football fan, despite liking baseball better as an idea. Football is absolutely humongous in the United States and totally worthless in every other country in the world. I don't know why that is but what we call soccer as well as basketball and baseball are far, far more popular outside of the U.S. than football. This makes no difference really and people should choose their own entertainment. Tik Tok is way, way more popular than football to a very large segment of the U.S. population which is equally confusing to me but I just say, people should find happiness in something. I stopped following football decades ago but have many relatives and friends who are diehard fans of the game. I'm a baseball fan and even Manfredball has failed to extinguish my interest in and love for the game.

This is a fair point. However, I do believe that umpires have high expectations of themselves. After the season there is reflection and research as well. Perhaps the blue will see that Julien's respectable 2:1 K to BB rate was less than what the challenge and ABS system presented for Julien in the minor leagues. There were at least 15 called strikes that could have sent him to first base instead of back to the dugout. Numbers like 110- Ks and 80+ BB not only look better but present better pitches for Eddie down the road. As others have pointed out, Julien is not the bat to successfully hit pitches off the plate and while people may be frustrated that he takes those close pitches which should correctly be called balls, they are not likely to fall in love with him swinging wildly outside the zone. He just isn't that type of hitter.

Polanco is so much better at baseball than any and all of those Seattle players that it is actually absurd to have this conversation. Yes, Polanco has been injured a few times and had less than expected totals the last two years. Do we know of any other infielders on the Twins team who have had injuries? So 29 home runs is disappointing, right? Seattle would love that problem. A real question is ... Why is Jorge Polanco so underrated?

If we continue to have the absurd 5 minute delays while New York checks whether a guy lifted his foot a quarter inch off the bag after stealing second base cleanly, the least Bonehead Manfred can do is put in the challenge system. Edouard Julien would appreciate this.

Dude, go watch the movie, Concussion. Football is literally broken. However, not fair by me because I don't follow the game since working on the sidelines and seeing the effects decades ago. To each their own.

The sabermetric folks think you should sit down and watch a bunch of baseball before drawing too many random conclusions.

So Lewis too?

We can agree to disagree on this. The Mariners have holes at 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH. They are pretty weak at 1B. They have great starting pitching. The Twins are fine everywhere but could use an additional bat and a starting pitcher as good as Lopez. The season is still a long way off which makes any argument about 2024 results pointless at this time, but for right now the Twins are in better shape. A factor to consider for Seattle is that they have both Texas and Houston in their division. Meanwhile the Twins will be scrapping it out with Detroit, KC, and Cleveland.

Does anyone remember that Varland had 7 successful starts in April and May last season? His performances showed an ability to go 7 innings. There can be no doubt that command and sequencing could use improvement, but not many pitchers blast their way through lineups in their first few years. It would be a mistake to put Varland in the bullpen next season unless the Twins add two pitchers who slot in above/behind Pablo Lopez. The Twins need to find out what Varland can do as a starter because he has the stamina, strength, and pitches to throw 180-200 effective innings in 2024.

Christian Encarcion-Strand is the guy to regret for what he will soon become. I wonder what it would take to get him back? His defense is lacking and he strikes out quite a bit, but he is going to absolutely mash in the middle of a lineup. Worst trade? "Don't look back ..... " I never cared for Tyler Mahle when he pitched for the Reds. He was, undeniably, a decent pitcher, but the nibbling, the home runs, and his general approach never did it for me. Good for Mahle that he has signed another contract and I was glad that Falvey sat that one out.