tony&rodney
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Everything posted by tony&rodney
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I understand that MLB counts Iowa, Wisconsin, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and even parts of Montana as "Twins Territory", which is a little bit humorous. Miami doesn't support baseball and Florida actually doesn't take to either of its two teams. Still, the population and reach/potential in numbers is over 20 million to split between Tampa Bay and Miami. There are more Yankee fans though. So, yes, MLB chooses how to measure the markets but population is not to be ignored. I wonder how much ad revenue the Twins bring in from out of state. FWIW, last summer I found out that my mlb.com account allowed me to watch the Twins while in Missoula but the Twins were blacked out in Billings. Manfredmen draw funny scribbles all across the country.
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Appreciate the effort to identify potential relievers. These two are pretty good. The issues remain: poor defense and adjusting salaries to stay below $130 million.
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Agree with this statement but we should remember that Miami is a large market club sandwiched between Phillies, Astros, and Blue Jays just above them and Washington D. C., Atlanta, and Boston trailing their market.
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Like Yates and Profar. We need to set the ceiling at $130M. The twins start at $137M. Adding $19M with Yates and Profar is $156M. Subtracting CV, WC, and CP is only $23.7M. We need to get down further. Plus Profar will be more and judging from relief pitcher prices, Yates will cost more. Additionally, Vazquez is unlikely to be traded if nobody takes his salary which is unlikely. It is a little like checkers with the jumps needed. I have never been a fan of the Pohlads but the Twins still carry the highest payroll in their division. The only way forward is via trades or roll it all back. The thumbs down and repeated comments tell me that TD wants to roll it back. So it goes. I'm still hopeful.
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Jax may make a relatively seamless transition from reliever to starter if everything goes perfectly, but where does this place David Festa? Is there a general belief that Festa is not ready for a #4/5 starting slot? Simeon Woods Richardson should have earned a starting role for next year with his performance in 2024. Are there disagreements with SWR as a inked in starting pitcher? Or, is there anticipation that the Twins would trade a starting pitcher?
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Tristan Casas has the potential to hit 40 home runs per year. He is also very slow and brutal as a first baseman. The Twins currently have a pile of guys who fit best in the DH slot. I'm hopeful for an improvement in converting balls in play into outs. The Twins should be tough in any discussions about Pablo Lopez. He is good, signed, and projects for around 200 effective innings per year. Boston may get desperate. I'm not keen on any deals for non catching prospects or Abreu. They do have a couple of players worth acquiring in Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel. Lopez and Jeffers for Duran and Teel deal makes some sense. The particulars are open. The Twins could add Castro or something. MLB starting pitching value is going through the roof right now. Falvey & Sons need to keep lines of communication open with teams and consider multiple options. There are opportunities.
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Dan Hayes, a fine writer had a really lame article on The Athletic. Basically he said the Twins are effed. I feel that this is a tone I see often on TD as well. Perhaps I'm lost in my own head, but I don't believe the Twins are without a myriad of opportunities. As of today, the Twins have the largest payroll in the AL Central and higher than Milwaukee as well. For some reason we read that the Twins cannot do this, cannot do that. Falvey has stated that he keeps an open mind but also believes the current roster is competitive. I agree that the Twins are competitive as a more or less 78-88 win team. The market has shown a clear value for pitching, strong utility players, and catchers thus far. The Twins cannot get any value for Christian Vazquez and cannot trade either catcher until a deal is finished bringing in a catcher. Despite cries opposed to moving others, there is a strong market and teams who match up well with the Twins for transactions. Perhaps the Mahle, Jorge Lopez, and/or Richards trades have put the front office in fear mode, but that shouldn't be the case. I doubt it is. There are opportunities and the 2025 season could easily be the end for a few executives if the team sells. Sitting on hands with the phone on silent doesn't seem like a plan. I expect several moves because I would not bet a dime on the current Twins team winning more than 88 games next season.
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- christian vazquez
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So, Correa ($37M) + Buxton ($15M), but for 15 years. Yikes.
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Totally agree that any consideration of a transaction involving Royce Lewis would need to return a controlled solid MLB player. R. Lewis still has a high ceiling and I'm sure there are teams who believe in his value. The only deal I have come up with is very unlikely but may be a safe trade for both teams. I might do a Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, Jose Miranda, and Justin Topa for Bryce Miller and Harry Ford trade.
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Those who come to Twins Daily are split on this topic. Falvey & Sons are tied to their guys in various ways and understandably still want to see a positive end result from "their" guys. A majority (slim perhaps) of TD posts agree with the idea of rolling it back and knocking on wood. Sometimes that works. The guys in Seattle and San Diego rarely let things roll. They attempt to address perceived weaknesses. A few folks on TD are wanting to see the Twins become more proactive in addressing various concerns with the roster. The sad part is we seem resigned to wait until March to see which players are still seeking a team. Other than the Cubs, the Twins will almost certainly begin 2025 with the largest payroll in either the AL or NL Central divisions. If three or four top free agents sign this week, there should be some real opportunities for transactions. Are the Twins prepared to act?
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The Twins will not have any difficulty whatsoever in reducing payroll to $130M or less. The challenge will be in creating deals that improve the team.
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This has been a thought in the past. One must be careful to remember that Minnesota and Los Angeles exist in different stratospheres financially, which means it is best to stay far away from examples that use the Dodgers practices when attempting to examine or suggest a plan for the Twins. Wish it were different.
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The idea for a significant trade could reach a peak this week. A key factor may be a couple of free agent signings. Just carrying forward a previous comment concerning the Red Sox, I would guess that Boston turns its attention to the trade market if they are unsuccessful in garnering a starting pitcher via free agency. Pablo Lopez, Ryan Jeffers, Chris Paddack, and a prospect (choice: Marco Raya, C. J. Culpepper, Cory Lewis) for Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel seems reasonable. Boston will hesitate at including Teel. The salary differences are rather large too, but Boston has money and was looking to pay big for a free agent starting pitcher in any event. Back this trade up by exchanging Brooks Lee for Jeferson Quero from the Brewers. The angst over the budget is relieved with the Boston transaction. Now the Twins are down a starting pitcher and a good bat behind the plate but at least there may be a little room to look for a veteran role player like Julio Iglesias or even Austin Hays.
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Frustrating to feel that Falvey & Sons are just going to sit on their hands even as we want to believe that some moves are imminent. There are so many opportunities to engage with other teams. Naturally, there may be constant conversations but the utter lack of movement is discouraging. In your plan above, I'm thinking you have Brooks Lee at AAA, which makes sense. Why not attempt to move Lee for Jeferson Quero? Both have questions hanging over their heads. Julien should have some value as well. Yes, he cratered last year but there are teams that could use a player like Julien and it sure seems like he has been pushed well behind any number of guys in the Twins organization. I'm guessing 5/$75M is enough to sign Kim. Doubt it is even considered though. Finally, If a couple more starting pitchers sign for unexpected teams, the value of Paddack and other starting pitchers goes up.
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FWIW, the current Twins roster is competitive. The win totals could vary from 76-88 next season. I can't see the team, as is, creating much buzz at Target Field, but the future is wide open.
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When the deadline deals were being discussed several years ago, I was rather pointedly opposed to acquiring Mahle because he was injured and I did not believe in him. When the trade was done I supported it in my online comments because it, at the very least, displayed an attempt to improve the team. There are trade suggestions I read that I disagree with now if they do not improve the team defensively. Yet, again, I'm really hoping that there is a deal of some type attempting to increase the talent on the team. No player is untouchable from their current roster. I'm only putting two prospects on my untouchable list, Jenkins and Keaschall. Somehow, Falvey & Sons need to do something.
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Among high income countries the U.S. spends the most by far but is dead last in outcome. The U.S. is the only high income country in the world that does not guarantee health coverage. Revenge killing is barbaric but is sadly an expected outcome as the U.S. continues to spiral downward in inequality across its culture. Health care as a determinate of rising up economically (hard to progress if you cannot see well enough to read and cannot afford glasses which is particularly a prohibitive issue for children) is huge. Health is the number one cause of individual bankruptcy and also a major factor in homelessness. I was flabbergasted that healthcare was virtually nonexistent as a topic in the 2024 elections. What happened? Having lived for at least two years in eight different countries (zero times in Europe) I have some first hand experience (including surgeries) with differing health care systems. One can only hope that the United States can emerge from its current sad state because the promise and potential remains great even as the overall trends in health care decline.
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Two guys who catch the ball being added to the roster seems better to me than most plans. As a pitcher it feels better to see EmRod in LF and Kim at 2B than the alternatives. Sure hope Miranda and Lewis can play the corners. I'm really hoping to see them improve but haven't seen much yet to support that wish.
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Controllable star power? Arizona wants a LH DH and doesn't have much money to spend and the Twins could use a really good glove in the infield. Make a call and a query on Jordan Lawler. The Twins could offer Julien, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Kaelen Culpepper in return and perhaps add Jorge Alcala. All reasonable options need to be explored.
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Seattle wants to win now. Perhaps you can substitute Castro for Topa or add (R. Lewis, Miranda, Castro, Topa for Miller, Ford). Seattle doesn't want to trade Miller or any pitchers but this really boosts their offense. The Twins still have Lee, Keaschall, Martin, Eeles, and others. I would advocate a quick signing of Jose Iglesias as a utility player for around $3M too. Additional moves should also take place. As others have said, a flurry of moves or nothing seems like the path. My vote goes to flurry.
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The A's signing Severino made Paddack more valuable (not too valuable but having some value).
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Sounds like death to 2025. Not sure you meant that or maybe you mean the front office decided on a group of players and you believe in those players ..... so roll it back and hope for better results next time.
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Perhaps the deals start with a gamble. Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, and Justin Topa to Seattle for Bryce Miller and Harry Ford. Paddack can be traded for a young Dominican League or A level pitcher with some promise or maybe a useful bullpen arm (?-San Diego for Bryan Hoeing?). There are trades and opportunities but waiting has not served the boys in the office well in the past. Above all else the Twins need to get their names out there and while that may already be the case because we just don't know, the waiting game and scraps renewal program seems like a plan to fail. Chances need to be taken. Of course, the Twins like the current group of players. However, unlike many, I don't see rolling out the same crew as a viable plan to compete for the AL Central. Of course, one thing we can be sure of is that we never know.
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The Twins finished in 4th place in the AL Central in 2024. That was pretty much where their talent placed them. If the team is to improve their position in the division they either need a humungous pile of luck or they need to make some changes.
