tony&rodney

I totally understand wanting to win now. Me too. Like I said previously, I do like Casas with a bat in his hands. I'm just not seeing any deal that works for the Twins at this time. Jeferson Quero is a catcher in the Milwaukee system. He was expected to debut last year but was injured sliding back into first base and needed surgery. He is likely needing a little time to knock the rust off but otherwise ready for MLB. Quero grades as a 70 defensive catcher. He is the only catcher that has that tag. He is really outstanding behind the plate and has hit well in the minor leagues. The risk on Quero is medium/low. The risk on Casas is high/medium as a comparison.

In a way the Yankees have a good reason to whine about the Dodgers. The Dodgers only shared their revenue based on what MLB estimated the next media contract during the debacle of the 2011 (?) bankruptcy proceedings. The Dodgers then (right after the signed agreement) negotiated a massive media deal and saved about $600 million of money that should have gone to the revenue fund in the next decade. The Yankees would have liked to have saved $600 million too. The terms were not on a level field even for the wealthy teams. A can of worms or Pandora's box resulted. The problem will be the next step and it will be very difficult unless the 18-20 smallest markets stand together. That has never happened yet in baseball history..

I'm (admittedly) high on Matthews. I'm suggesting he could be where Woo and Miller were last year in two years (one at AAA, one in MLB rotation). He does have to develop more movement on the edges, which is really similar to what both Woo and Miller did. I'm not feeling a fit for a trade for Casas. I love his power and bat. He is similar to Wallner, although Wallner has better speed and should be able to improve enough to be close to an average outfielder. (I will note here that if Emmanuel Rodriguez is real and Walker Jenkins arrives next year, Wallner gets pushed to DH most likely.) The problem with Casas is similar to too many current Twins - the glove is below average to poor. I find it ironic that people go off on Julien for his defense, a criticism he has earned, but give a pass to Lewis and Miranda and then want to add a guy like Casas. The goal should be to balance the team in order to reduce the players who cannot play defense, are slow, and who strike out too much. I agree that bats are needed but am holding out for better. If Duran is a topic for trading, ask Milwaukee to send Jeferson Quero over. That seems fair.

Matthews is worth the same as Casas right now. He had a meteoric rise through the minor leagues last season and found out in a rough fashion what he needs to work on now this year in AAA in order to stick in an MLB rotation. In another year Matthews will be similar to Woo or Miller (Seattle pitchers). Breslow would take Matthews for Casas right now. Of course if the Twins want to help a former Twin (Breslow) they could send Duran too. You are right though, Boston would love that deal.

Sunflower seeds.

That is not a deal I can see helping the Twins. I would trade Duran and Kyle DeBarge for Jordan Lawler. However, Arizona would not trade Lawler. The Twins need to look over how they are constructing their team in terms of defense, speed, strike out percentage, and such. Casas would join a number of other Twins as slow, defensively challenged, and prone to striking out a ton. Breslow is working to balance the Red Sox offense/position players according to these characteristics. Back in October it seemed like the Twins needed to make several moves. It still feels that way.

This is an interesting take. I am wondering if you listen to music or watch any television shows or go to movies or have ever been to a Walmart or bought a car or buy gas or have any type of insurance? Professional sports are one of the only professions that require excellence to get to a top salary. While plenty of people (probably the majority) earn their way in all walks of life, there is a ton of wealth that is inherited by idiots (not all who inherit are morons) and a ton of people gain high positions due to their knowing someone. Additionally much of the wealth of most companies comes from government aid. I can't think of a single baseball player who was paid because they were cute or earns a top salary because they knew somebody or inherited the shortstop position. If you want to reward hard work when you seek out entertainment that is professional you can't do any better than going to a baseball game. However, if you just don't support anyone making more than say $500,000 per year and prefer to watch amateur sports, that I can support because if we take away all wealth in the country above that limit a ton of problems could be solved. Maybe that was your point.

That is exactly what crossed my mind when I saw this article. I have also wondered if the Twins could pull off a deal for Cease and follow it up with a Joe Ryan for Samuel Basallo move. Opportunity is there. Craig Breslow was a pitcher who depended on his fielders to turn the batted balls in play into outs. You can be sure he is very aware of the defensive assets and liabilities of each of the Red Sox players. It is an easy explanation for why Boston wants to move Devers to 1B. They have already moved Yoshida to DH. The Red Sox are also still courting Bregman, a player who is good defensively and fits Fenway Park perfectly. Tristan Casas is a solid power hitting DH, but his glove will make us call for Miranda and Julien at first base. I can see why Breslow wants to get something for Casas and I would do the same. I can also see the value of Casas as a DH for the Twins. I have a hard time thinking of who to surrender in a deal for the lefty slugger though.

Paddack? Trade with Philly on the horizon? Padres? Henriquez seems like the odd reliever out if none are dealt.

Derek Falvey must have an incredible amount of confidence in the future (as in 2025) performance of all of the current Twins because there have not been any steps taken to acquire new players for the roster. I'm not counting minor league invites as roster additions. The only addition, as of today, to the 26 person roster is a Rule 5 pick. I would say the Twins are counting on all of these guys to be healthy and productive, so ...... all make it.

Preller will believe that Cease will return more and Falvey will believe the price is exorbitant. That's why no deal. The reality is that the Padres could use Paddack as a starter more so than the Twins and the difference in money, if Suarez is added to the deal, allows San Diego to sign up an inexpensive free agent while filling holes that they cannot buy on the free agent market. If the Padres look for prospects they can do better talking with either of the Cubs or Mets but I'm not seeing why Preller would shift to prospects to help the team this year. Larnach, Julien, and the minor leaguers C. Lewis and C. J. Culpepper have years of control left, while Paddack and Castro strengthen the team this year. Preller does this deal if offered because it helps the 2025 team. The Twins would hesitate because Castro has been valuable across the field and Larnach had some growth as a batter last year. Minnesota also almost certainly still has positive ideas about Julien, despite the groans from many on Twins Daily. Agreeing to take Suarez is risky too because he still has 2 player option years at $8M. If he bombs, that money is quite a hit. Falvey/Zoll does this deal because it is a splash for boosting public notice of the team. The deal: Larnach, Julien, Castro, Paddack, C. Lewis, and C. J. Culpepper for Cease and Suarez.

Good. Little late to the show though, don't ya think? 84 wins?

Mickey Gasper? This will be an interesting look. I know nothing about him except for the statistics, which means I know absolutely nothing about him.

The simplest solution going forward will be a monstrous difficult task. All attendance and media revenues need to be combined into one pot and distributed evenly. Stadium advertisements, executive boxes, adjoining real estate income, etc. will still give large market teams a big advantage but Milwaukee will no longer need to pretend that running their team perfectly, selling out their stadium, and maxing out their media contracts puts them on anything close to a fair level as the large market teams. It takes two teams to play the games. There are zero reasons why a New York, Houston, LA, or Boston team makes more money off of their media than an opponent. No opposing team, no TV or radio.

As shown by my byline, I'm a huge Rod Carew fan as well. I have often quoted his dominance over every batter in baseball using the measure of batting average, specifically that 1977 season. It irked me that George Brett, a very fine player and fellow Hall of Fame member, received more national press than Rodney when George hit .390 with 515 PA and 175 hits versus Carew's 694 PA and 239 hits or if you prefer GB=9.4 WAR vs. RC=9.7WAR. An interesting point that started Carew's career is that Calvin Griffith "ordered" the manager to start Carew from Day One of the regular season. Rod had only played as high as "A" ball to that point. Cal knew baseball talent.

New ownership may have a different view on contract extensions but I would expect that the POBO and/or GM would have some expertise or guidance for an owner on that front. Even Cohen (NYM) has not gone nuts with contracts and extensions and he certainly has the do-re-mi to do whatever he wants to with his money.

Well, I initially just hit quote for the entire comment but it didn't seem necessary. No foul play was intended and sorry if it seemed so. I'm a Twins fan and not picking on Minnesota but San Diego does support their team more completely from the numbers. As for competition, there have been fifty plus years of economic studies that refute any benefit of a sports franchise to an area based on a simple principal. People have spending habits that include forking over their money for entertainment which is a constant whether there are ten teams or one or zero. The competition for entertainment dollars has been studied to death. However, you have a very good point, winter is different. Perhaps I lost the point you were making. Did I? Was it that Minnesota has more professional teams?

I was a little disappointed, but not at all surprised, that Hayes did not repeat what he felt might be a fair deal for both teams. Understandable he kept away from speculation.

Maybe not. Since the Padres have had a team they have drawn more than the average attendance more times than the Twins have. The Twins reigned supreme from 1961-1970, but the population has other interests more often than not. I believe that was the point of the Hayes article - the Twins could use a public relations boost from a player acquisition to go along with an announcement of the sale of the team. The public is fickle and some attention in the local media may spur a bit of conversation which could possibly lead to some renewed interest in the Twins.

If what I read in the comments is even remotely close to some semblance of true, which is a fairly wide region of doubt, we can conclude that PECOTA is bull***t, and merely space in our cold winter day.

Yah, I'm not buying that excuse. I'm from Minnesota and the lakes and fishing are a major draw in the summer. There are plenty of things to do, actually endless. At the end of the day people have a set amount of money they spend on entertainment each month for whatever purpose that may be. That is true for every place on the planet. The people of San Diego prefer/enjoy/like baseball more than the people of the Twins Cities. That isn't very controversial. The San Diego area easily has as many distractions as we have here and the beach is always an easy yes. I am not threatened by the fact that San Diego has supported their baseball team much more than the people of the Twin Cities. It is what is and in this case the numbers do not lie. For now at the very least the San Diego market, which is a fair amount smaller, supports their baseball team better than the we do here in Minnesota.

Me too. If these guys are not in ST, we can guess the Twins are not very functional as a system.

First things first, the Twins need to believe in a player enough to put them in the lineup and let them play. San Diego was trying to win the NL West but stuck with Jackson Merrill through some tough struggles. Merrill wound up have a helluva year. The Brewers stuck with Jackson Chourio when he was lost and were rewarded with his play which was crucial in helping win the NL Central for Milwaukee. There should be an evaluation and decision made by mid March on Emmanuel. Keaschall will need some time at AAA and Jenkins will also need more experiences in the minor leagues ..... unless something incredible happens in ST.

Quite natural for San Diego (Preller) to ask about Ober and Ryan and also indicate an interest in Keaschall, Rodriguez, and Jenkins. My take is that all of those names were pretty much dropped past the initial hello stage. Both Minnesota and San Diego have some motivation to engage further, which is why Dan Hayes writes his article. He suggests the likelihood of any deal remains low. The Padres need players, the Twins need a publicity boost. A trade will be complicated but possible. Preller needs to be reasonable and Falvey/Zoll needs to have confidence in those players who would pick up the slack from traded players. Perhaps the Twins add a bit of salary too. Preller wants to add a LF (Larnach), a DH/1B (Julien), possibly a utility player (Castro), and SP (SWR/Matthews). There are certainly other names being discussed and these discussions are likely on and off. Other teams are also attempting to pry Cease away from San Diego as well, but most of the other rumors involve more prospects than actual MLB players. The Padres are competing for a playoff position and while a Cubs or Mets prospect laden deal might be good 3 years from now, I would be surprised to see San Diego give up on 2025. Perhaps if the Twins expand the deal to accept relief pitcher Robert Suarez (sunk contract), there could be an exchange that is kinder to the Twins. Speculatively, Larnach (LF), Julien (DH/1B), Castro (if/of), Paddack (SP), and a prospect along the lines of Cory Lewis or C. J. Culpepper would complete the trade for Cease and Suarez. San Diego sends away $23..75M in player costs but receives back $16.75M in players. The end result for San Diego leaves them with some money to add a guy like Gibson, Heaney, Lynn, or Quintana while their position group is strengthened. The Twins would be thinned though at the corner outfield spot and a utility player short for now. The upside is a risk. Do the Twins believe in Emmanuel Rodriguez and others or does caution and a risk adverse course continue to be the strategy of our favorite team. That is the way I read the current Cease situation and it seems like nothing will happen based on the past. But .... you never know.

There is utility in looking at statistics and analytics, which is why teams hire a raft of employees to dig and scape for any advantage or edge possible that improves any player to increase potential win totals. For those of us not employed by an MLB team crunching data, these sites and minutiae of collected numbers are good entertainment. When i'm working specifically with a pitcher (in the past) on refining one pitch and changing the shape of another pitch based on some information on hand, the close proximity to the task at hand has consequences and verifiable successes and failures. Reading the data and not having any personal hands on knowledge means the data is just numbers. When Joe Ryan works specifically with one of the many businesses/people tracking his delivery and pitches and then using information in conversation with Joe to find subtle improvements, there is a close knowledge of how that works. Looking over the data without seeing the guy pitch is an incomplete picture, which is what all of these sites give us. They are mere entertainment and I enjoy them too but it is best to put it into context. Thus ______ (fill in the name of the site/ prognosticator) publishes a tome of information telling us where our players and teams should reside. Guess what? Sometimes they are close because numbers do tell a good story. The Twins benefitted from their residence in the AL Central for a few years as Chicago, Detroit, and Kansas City faltered and Cleveland struggled with money. Last year we began to see a natural rise of a couple of teams (Detroit and Kansas City), which should continue in 2025. The AL Central will almost certainly be a close race between four teams and the White Sox will be more competitive while losing 100 games. Don't bet on any of the teams at this time to win 90 games. Expect 82-88 wins for all of Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Kansas City.