tony&rodney
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Everything posted by tony&rodney
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There are around a dozen clubs, including all of the AL Central, that will have a lower payroll than the Twins. Yes, the ownership is not especially committed and open for abuse. However, there are opportunities for changes to improve the roster and have a lower payroll. It seems like Falvey & Sons are frozen at this time. Waiting out the market may make the return on a couple of players expected to be dealt slightly better but other opportunities will be gone. Life after Carlos Correa will occur at some point. The problem is securing a replacement. I would guess that Arizona has very little interest in trading a prospect like Jordan Lawler and Twins fans may be opposed to gambling on an oft-injured young player who has not proven anything yet. Lawler can play shortstop though and thus is worth a call. Correa is important to the Twins if they are to be respectable. The front office seems very content with the roster and shedding a few players will put their budget at ease. That is the easy part. Finding a way to actually repeat an 82 win season will be a challenge without some trades IMHO. F & S, along with many on TD, seem reticent to step into a world of change. Sure, Correa can be traded but there better be a plan or the Twins will fall further than anyone might guess.
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So endless loop here, but the Twins cannot trade Vazquez until they have another catcher. You cannot play baseball without a catcher. Unlikely that any team pays all of the Vazquez contract as well. This is another challenge which has solutions if the Twins actually are interested in solving their puzzles.
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You may not be familiar with the Metrodome lease, the lawsuit, and final judgment. Leases can stop an MLB team from moving. There are precedents. Now if you are talking about negotiating an end or buying out a lease, that is entirely possible. It happens all the time including with rental agreements for apartments, etc.
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Something tells me that Cohen is not going to lose any money on the Soto deal.
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PROFAR????
tony&rodney commented on dxpavelka's blog entry in JOEY GALLO TEAM STRIKEOUT RECORD TRACKER
The budget is at around $135-137 million now. So subtracting Paddack just brings the Twins to their expected budget. That means that in order to add Profar another $13M needs to come off the rolls. Profar will likely get more money though and moving all of the Vazquez contract seems extremely unlikely plus the Twins must add another catcher before any consideration of dealing Vazquez. In order to clear a ton of money, the Twins would need to move on from Correa and at that point they are going with prospects and no longer looking at adding multi-year players. The trades will cost one way or another. -
Great idea. Now the Twins just need to reduce the payroll to accommodate the additions. Dealing Paddack gets the team to budget ($130M) and then it gets creative after that, but it can be done. So to add Poche, Castro will need to go. It's all like a puzzle.
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My narrow twist on this is that I see the Twins as a playoff team only if everything goes right and the other AL Central teams do not have good fortune. Perhaps a path towards putting Griffin Jax in the starting rotation is to complete a trade with Milwaukee to acquire Delvin Williams and Jeferson Quero. Would Brooks Lee, one of Willi Castro or Jose Miranda, and a minor league prospect like Cory Lewis be fair? This provides protection for the bullpen at least. I'm still wondering if David Festa really needs so much more time in AAA and it sure seems like Simeon Woods Richardson put his name down for a starting slot with his performance last year. The pitchers could sure use a couple of guys to catch the ball though.
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Not sure what all those links had in common or what you were responding to .... but Berrios was traded because the Twins and Berrios could not agree on a long term deal. The Twins wanted a return beyond the draft choice and Toronto obliged by offering Martin and Woods Richardson. I guess you see it as a Kevin Bacon kind of situation. I don't see that but if it works for you, then ok.
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I understand that MLB counts Iowa, Wisconsin, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and even parts of Montana as "Twins Territory", which is a little bit humorous. Miami doesn't support baseball and Florida actually doesn't take to either of its two teams. Still, the population and reach/potential in numbers is over 20 million to split between Tampa Bay and Miami. There are more Yankee fans though. So, yes, MLB chooses how to measure the markets but population is not to be ignored. I wonder how much ad revenue the Twins bring in from out of state. FWIW, last summer I found out that my mlb.com account allowed me to watch the Twins while in Missoula but the Twins were blacked out in Billings. Manfredmen draw funny scribbles all across the country.
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Appreciate the effort to identify potential relievers. These two are pretty good. The issues remain: poor defense and adjusting salaries to stay below $130 million.
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Agree with this statement but we should remember that Miami is a large market club sandwiched between Phillies, Astros, and Blue Jays just above them and Washington D. C., Atlanta, and Boston trailing their market.
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Like Yates and Profar. We need to set the ceiling at $130M. The twins start at $137M. Adding $19M with Yates and Profar is $156M. Subtracting CV, WC, and CP is only $23.7M. We need to get down further. Plus Profar will be more and judging from relief pitcher prices, Yates will cost more. Additionally, Vazquez is unlikely to be traded if nobody takes his salary which is unlikely. It is a little like checkers with the jumps needed. I have never been a fan of the Pohlads but the Twins still carry the highest payroll in their division. The only way forward is via trades or roll it all back. The thumbs down and repeated comments tell me that TD wants to roll it back. So it goes. I'm still hopeful.
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Jax may make a relatively seamless transition from reliever to starter if everything goes perfectly, but where does this place David Festa? Is there a general belief that Festa is not ready for a #4/5 starting slot? Simeon Woods Richardson should have earned a starting role for next year with his performance in 2024. Are there disagreements with SWR as a inked in starting pitcher? Or, is there anticipation that the Twins would trade a starting pitcher?
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Tristan Casas has the potential to hit 40 home runs per year. He is also very slow and brutal as a first baseman. The Twins currently have a pile of guys who fit best in the DH slot. I'm hopeful for an improvement in converting balls in play into outs. The Twins should be tough in any discussions about Pablo Lopez. He is good, signed, and projects for around 200 effective innings per year. Boston may get desperate. I'm not keen on any deals for non catching prospects or Abreu. They do have a couple of players worth acquiring in Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel. Lopez and Jeffers for Duran and Teel deal makes some sense. The particulars are open. The Twins could add Castro or something. MLB starting pitching value is going through the roof right now. Falvey & Sons need to keep lines of communication open with teams and consider multiple options. There are opportunities.
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Dan Hayes, a fine writer had a really lame article on The Athletic. Basically he said the Twins are effed. I feel that this is a tone I see often on TD as well. Perhaps I'm lost in my own head, but I don't believe the Twins are without a myriad of opportunities. As of today, the Twins have the largest payroll in the AL Central and higher than Milwaukee as well. For some reason we read that the Twins cannot do this, cannot do that. Falvey has stated that he keeps an open mind but also believes the current roster is competitive. I agree that the Twins are competitive as a more or less 78-88 win team. The market has shown a clear value for pitching, strong utility players, and catchers thus far. The Twins cannot get any value for Christian Vazquez and cannot trade either catcher until a deal is finished bringing in a catcher. Despite cries opposed to moving others, there is a strong market and teams who match up well with the Twins for transactions. Perhaps the Mahle, Jorge Lopez, and/or Richards trades have put the front office in fear mode, but that shouldn't be the case. I doubt it is. There are opportunities and the 2025 season could easily be the end for a few executives if the team sells. Sitting on hands with the phone on silent doesn't seem like a plan. I expect several moves because I would not bet a dime on the current Twins team winning more than 88 games next season.
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So, Correa ($37M) + Buxton ($15M), but for 15 years. Yikes.
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Totally agree that any consideration of a transaction involving Royce Lewis would need to return a controlled solid MLB player. R. Lewis still has a high ceiling and I'm sure there are teams who believe in his value. The only deal I have come up with is very unlikely but may be a safe trade for both teams. I might do a Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, Jose Miranda, and Justin Topa for Bryce Miller and Harry Ford trade.
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Those who come to Twins Daily are split on this topic. Falvey & Sons are tied to their guys in various ways and understandably still want to see a positive end result from "their" guys. A majority (slim perhaps) of TD posts agree with the idea of rolling it back and knocking on wood. Sometimes that works. The guys in Seattle and San Diego rarely let things roll. They attempt to address perceived weaknesses. A few folks on TD are wanting to see the Twins become more proactive in addressing various concerns with the roster. The sad part is we seem resigned to wait until March to see which players are still seeking a team. Other than the Cubs, the Twins will almost certainly begin 2025 with the largest payroll in either the AL or NL Central divisions. If three or four top free agents sign this week, there should be some real opportunities for transactions. Are the Twins prepared to act?
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The Twins will not have any difficulty whatsoever in reducing payroll to $130M or less. The challenge will be in creating deals that improve the team.
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This has been a thought in the past. One must be careful to remember that Minnesota and Los Angeles exist in different stratospheres financially, which means it is best to stay far away from examples that use the Dodgers practices when attempting to examine or suggest a plan for the Twins. Wish it were different.
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The idea for a significant trade could reach a peak this week. A key factor may be a couple of free agent signings. Just carrying forward a previous comment concerning the Red Sox, I would guess that Boston turns its attention to the trade market if they are unsuccessful in garnering a starting pitcher via free agency. Pablo Lopez, Ryan Jeffers, Chris Paddack, and a prospect (choice: Marco Raya, C. J. Culpepper, Cory Lewis) for Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel seems reasonable. Boston will hesitate at including Teel. The salary differences are rather large too, but Boston has money and was looking to pay big for a free agent starting pitcher in any event. Back this trade up by exchanging Brooks Lee for Jeferson Quero from the Brewers. The angst over the budget is relieved with the Boston transaction. Now the Twins are down a starting pitcher and a good bat behind the plate but at least there may be a little room to look for a veteran role player like Julio Iglesias or even Austin Hays.
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Frustrating to feel that Falvey & Sons are just going to sit on their hands even as we want to believe that some moves are imminent. There are so many opportunities to engage with other teams. Naturally, there may be constant conversations but the utter lack of movement is discouraging. In your plan above, I'm thinking you have Brooks Lee at AAA, which makes sense. Why not attempt to move Lee for Jeferson Quero? Both have questions hanging over their heads. Julien should have some value as well. Yes, he cratered last year but there are teams that could use a player like Julien and it sure seems like he has been pushed well behind any number of guys in the Twins organization. I'm guessing 5/$75M is enough to sign Kim. Doubt it is even considered though. Finally, If a couple more starting pitchers sign for unexpected teams, the value of Paddack and other starting pitchers goes up.
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FWIW, the current Twins roster is competitive. The win totals could vary from 76-88 next season. I can't see the team, as is, creating much buzz at Target Field, but the future is wide open.
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When the deadline deals were being discussed several years ago, I was rather pointedly opposed to acquiring Mahle because he was injured and I did not believe in him. When the trade was done I supported it in my online comments because it, at the very least, displayed an attempt to improve the team. There are trade suggestions I read that I disagree with now if they do not improve the team defensively. Yet, again, I'm really hoping that there is a deal of some type attempting to increase the talent on the team. No player is untouchable from their current roster. I'm only putting two prospects on my untouchable list, Jenkins and Keaschall. Somehow, Falvey & Sons need to do something.
