tony&rodney

Odd that people would be surprised by this news. Yes, it is always a good idea to be hopeful but there are other teams with more potential to buy in MLB. The Twins have had it pretty sweet in the AL Central since the current front office came in 2017, spending more money than any team in the division. This will almost certainly soon end as it is reasonable to expect both Detroit and Chicago to bypass the Twins due to potentially higher revenue sources. Each year I have been hopeful of several moves that sometimes included one addition of a somewhat spendy free agent but attempted to keep a payroll within site of the other fellows in the region. There isn't any reason to believe the team won't sell this season and we all hope it occurs asap. However, in any event the Twins will soon find themselves needing to resort to a more efficient system of acquiring talent because their spending is not likely to continually eclipse that of their foes. Creativity will be the password. Don't lose faith, the team will sell. It might take a few months or a few years.

Jorge Alcala has all the stuff to be a shut down late inning reliever. He plays for a team that wants him to throw more than an inning. Seems like a clash of capability versus desire. The Twins can start the season with Alcala in AAA but gain little unless they feel that any of Topa, Varland, or Castellano have better pitches which seems unlikely. If that occurs and when Alcala is called up he can no longer be optioned after five days of service time in MLB. At that point the Twins would be just playing with Alcala's head and he is gone. So no the Twins need to keep Alcala until they no longer want him on the team.

This hypothesis is what needs to be examined by one of the Twins Daily writers who love to dissect numbers and graphs to be looked into in a complete fashion. I too felt his swing looked different when i watched him play for St. Paul when he was first sent down in early June. I'm not not really buying he can't hit this or that type of pitch. Were the Blue Jays and Astros just throwing cookies to Julien or did MLB teams not have any information on Julien before mid May of last year? Watching him in minor league play before he was promoted to MLB, Julien had little problems with too many offerings that I noted. There really isn't any disagreement that Julien was a hot mess last season and I don't know why. My guess is it was a combination of increasingly poor swing mechanics, a loss of confidence, and perhaps depression from how rapidly he dropped in his play. I can't remember the game exactly, but Julien was hesitant on going first to third on a single down the right field line where he wound up reversing ground to second base. I remember thinking his head was in a bad place. Who knows. I doubt any answers are out there but perhaps there is evidence of drastic pitch offerings to Julien that suddenly began in May of last season.

Thank you. My sense is the same as yours concerning Lewis and hope he does well this season. Since last October, I have asked numerous times why the singular focus on Julien, who seemingly has a greater degree of difficulty to return to favor, as opposed to the repeated reference to and expectation of core production from Lewis. This is the first response and I too believe an analysis is due on a player who has put up the same general worth as Julien. Lewis did not fall as far as Julien last season but ended the year poorly. Julien and Lewis were roughly even in 2023 with various numbers favoring one or the other; pretty similar.

Ok, fair enough. Do you also expect a similar article that dissects Royce Lewis?

While I don't disagree with you about Julien's 2023 and 2024 and also hope that Edouard can return to relevance, I can't help but compare Julien and Lewis despite their obvious physical differences. Didn't the league catch up to Royce? Was he tired? Out of shape? The lack of analysis of Royce Lewis who I hope has a monster season in 2025 is absent while the critical looks at every weakness of Julien are continual, to include thoughts of needing more AAA or just trade or release the guy. BTW, I picked Payton Eeles for 2B. We know that won't happen.

Mauer, I believe, was the first high school kid named Player of the Year in two sports in the same year. He was the consensus #1 rated football player in the country and also good enough at basketball to be a D1 guard. Bill Musselman talked Winfield into playing basketball after watching him play in an intramural game at the U of M. He was drafted by teams in the ABA, NBA, NFL, and MLB. All of them made their pitch but Winfield was a baseball player from near birth; he chose the Padres. I first saw Winfield play when he was in 9th grade. What an athlete and competitor.

Local guys, Dave Winfield and Joe Mauer, would not have had any problem playing another sport if that had been their wish.

Cuddyer?

For those who enjoy trivial details, watch where the first baseman has his foot on throws to first base. They have been taught to begin in the middle of the bag and slide their back foot left or right depending on where the throw is directed. Remember, the bag is even bigger than it was in the past. Fortunately for the Twins, Correa pretty much puts every throw chest high to the middle of the bag where all the first baseman has to do is catch the ball. Julien, however, requires a skilled guy because his throws are left, right, and bounced. Joe Mauer, among others, would have caught every single throw by Julien. This in turn reduces anxiety and eventually the throws become right on target. Something to watch for those interested. FWIW, Sano was brutal on this detail but managed some of the other first base skills adequately.

Of course it is stupid when Baldelli has guys like Bundy, Archer, Paddack, Gallo, Margot, France and others who can lead the team. Then again different strokes for different folks .... Cleveland has had players receive votes for ROY every year from 2019-2024, but were too stacked in 2017-2018 with All Star players. The Twins have had only Luis Arraez and Edouard Julien receive any votes since Falvey took over the team. The teams have different philosophies, it's just the way it is. Meanwhile, all of Twins fans continue to hope for the best and think positive each year. One of my nephews, now in his fifties, asked me if I have ever not predicted the Twins to win the World Series. Hope.

She doesn't.

We will have some semblance of an answer by October if indeed the Twins are working on fundamentals.

The Twins have a good pitching staff. The Twins have some decent bats. The Twins don't run; they have a slow team. The Twins are a below average team defensively. The Twins can win 90 games if their pitchers are really good and their bats support the pitching. Expect 83-87 wins, which could be enough to win the division.

Coaches and managers ride a fine line with their players. These guys are together 8 months or more a year. There are more than a few players who would have a problem with required bunting practice. In today's game, a player must take the initiative and find the time on their own. The coaches are always willing to throw or feed a machine. 15-30 minutes a day is needed to build and refine the bunting skills that every player was forced to do as part of their youth and high school practices. We may see this skill make its way back into the game. What goes around comes around.

Hopefully every player is at their best. Chris Paddack was at his best in 2019 and that year has covered for everything he has done since. Falvey is on record as saying he wanted to acquire Paddack since he was hired in 2017 and he did so as soon as the Padres agreed to deal Paddack. So we get Paddack no matter what until he is injured. That is the reality. I don't think this is even an argument because Falvey makes the call. The argument for Woods Richardson, Festa, and Matthews to be ahead of Paddack ignores 2019, just as we don't expect Nelson Cruz back or Huascar Ynoa to repeat his 2021 season. For some of us the future is now and we would rather watch any 2 of the 3 guys named above pitch than Paddack. Speaking only for myself, I believe the Twins stand a better chance to win games with Festa and Woods Richardson and then Matthews on the mound than Paddack. I also have no concern about any of the young guys wearing down this season. As said often, injuries do occur. No reason to get too excited by wins or losses, but we will hope for wins.

Assigning value to offense has been done forever, a run scored counts for your side no matter how that run is scored. Putting the ball in play is generally, but not always, preferable to striking out, hitting into a double play being one common example. An exception would be when a run scores on that double play which is a positive versus not scoring. Now we are in a decade where folks argue vociferously for the latest newest fashions. This was predictable and some of the newer (2-3 decades old) analytics are popular. In any event grading offense is being done and has been done pretty successfully forever. Conversely, grading defense has difficulty all over the place. Does every batted ball get assigned value exactly in the same way by the same person and are playing conditions factored into an equation? Impossible. Decades ago i developed a somewhat shoddy system, using a raft of diacritical marks, to assign value to the defensive plays in front of me. This was initiated by comments from a broadcaster lavishing praise on Pete Rose for his hustle and using words that could be taken as criticism to describe how Rod Carew ran the bases. There have been thousands of instances where the guy who looks all 100% wasted running draws praise when the smooth runner is frowned on as having natural talent but not extending themsleves. I personally doubt that Pete Rose, who played very hard, ever outworked Rod Carew at anything. But I digress. Last year, I charted a few Twins games to measure, according to my shoddy system, to determine quite roughly whether the defensive movements or plays from either team affected the final score. In sum, defense just doesn't matter in blowout games that much even if the runs scored to get the rally going were a result of poor play and conversely a fine defensive play stopped a rally. So it is hard to predict the value in a blowout. However, in close games (1-3 runs difference) the ability of one team to convert outs on as near to exact plays as is possible when the other team cannot make a play makes a difference. This is all just circumstantial scribbles and grading defense is (IMO) remains subjective. Two people cannot view the same play in an exact fashion. The Twins lost several games due to a general inability to make plays in my small sample. This has no wider worth as everyone has their own view of individual players, which may be due to cultural factors as well as natural favoritism for one's home team. A simple example of that may be how many on this board view Edouard Julien versus how he is viewed by people from elsewhere. Why does BTV have Julien so high? Just a pile of blab to say that the efficacy of grading defense is nowhere near how offense is evaluated. What is clear to most is that they both have value. The current Twins front office has their views as well and we get to watch the product they value. Answering directly to the original title, I doubt whether the defense will be a disaster but the odds of the Twins advancing in a playoff series (should they qualify) are quite low because little things like catching the ball make a difference in a series of close games.

Paddack's numbers via quotes from him. 100 innings of 4.50 ERA would be amazing IMO.

Don't forget Edouard Julien as Comeback Player of the Year. Correa is a fun shortstop to watch because he is so steady and his throws are almost always machine like in their accuracy.

Paddack is out of options so there would not be a place for him on the Marlins team. Big Chris looks mighty fine in his cowboy hat and boots, maybe the Texas teams would have an interest. Also, don't forget the Dodgers who are putting together quite a collection of TJ survivors.

We all need to wish Chris Paddack and Ty France well this year. They both have talent, each has had some success in the major leagues before, and they were identified by the front office as key pieces to this coming year. Paddack has specifically stated he is ready for 35 starts and more than 200 innings. France is playing coy, no such statements thus far. Another day, another Paddack anointment. I hope these guys have terrific years.

More or less Chris Paddack is Margot, Gallo, etc. The comments confirm that CP will be in the rotation based on how the Twins see their world. So it goes.

You speak the line the Twins are predicted to take. The games and season will play out and we can judge how well things went in October. My comments may reflect some deep frustration of how the Twins build their roster and that is a half decade old now, especially heightened by the last two years. I understand and respect that others have differences in their views.

Correa leading the Twins to a World Series title would be sweet, but it would need to be on the backs of pitching and young players not yet established.

This is a fair question. It is also an issue that this front office knew about and they still have not proceeded. It is hard to believe that the Twins have yet to receive any interest or even an offer for Chris Paddack. I empathize with how Paddack has worked to return from injuries and a quick perusal of the game logs and memory reminds us that he had a number of strong outings last season. The reality is that Paddack slots as the 7th best option in regards to starting pitchers for 2025. Outside of 2019 there isn't enough to boost him any higher. My goal in choosing players is and has been for those players who best help the team win games. Paddack should have been traded already. He is still on the roster though and I'm putting him in the bullpen if no team offers anything before the season begins. Baldelli and others have zero reason to state firm plans until the end of March. That gives Falvey a month to find a cure for his publicly stated infatuation for Paddack that goes back to when Falvey was hired. Hell, I was high on Paddack in 2018 and 2019. I'm cured.