Brandon

France for 1 million is basically a bench player/ option for playing time that you don’t feel bad if you cut loose. He is starting and hitting ok. Not great but solid and at 1 million that’s a good value. Miranda or Keaschall or both could easily push Ty down the depth chart and injuries are preventing that from happening. Wallner injury helps Ty too because Bader is worth more playing time right now which could push Larnarch or Wallner into more DH or 1B duty taking time away from Ty.

Coulombe was always a solid signing at 3 million. The question with him is how much of the season will he be available? Ty France at 1 million is throwing mud against the wall to see if he sticks. He is out hitting Santana at 1/12th the price. He was signed at a price to be a bench player. Bader is great defensively and the offense is higher than advertised and the small sample size keeps growing. Even if he regresses to a .750 OPS that’s a big upgrade for him. these guys were signed to be role players but are taking on larger roles. And these guys are clearly a good if not great value for their cost.

The Twins starting rotation is currently the 1987 version of Nolan Ryan. he led the league in ERA 2.76 and went 8 - 16 with 270 strike outs in 211.67 innings.

Correa started in a slump. He is 13 for his last 37. He will be fine. THe issues with the lineup has been injuries (Wallner, Keaschall, and Lewis and Castro) slumps Correa to start the season and Julien, and Velazquez) and the bench has been atrocious. Normally the bench is almost as good as the regulars but not this year. Bader would be a great bench bat except he is full time right now, Castro has been hurt. Gasper hasnt hit not has Velazquez, Keirsay hasnt hit, Julien nope though he got stuck starting.... Though there is hope on the horizon. Lewis is back and moves Lee to 2B and Castro is also back. If Correa continues to hit.... our offense could be better moving forward. We still need that one big bat that Wallner provides so hope he comes back soon. I did want to point out that Ty France is out hitting Santana who signed with Cleveland for 12 million vs the 1 million France got. Our pitching has been good overall. Paddack and Ober had 1 really bad start each that is skewing their numbers. Jax has been bad and Steward has recently and Alcala seems to be pitching better too. otherwise the staff has pitched pretty good.

i think the thought process was 4 years at 9 million locks in a pitching spot where he could be a 5th starter with a mid 4 ERA or a multi inning reliever and if he had 1 season of around a 150 innings with a 4 -4.5 ERA and a few season relieving he would have been worth the contract. and if he had that 150 inning season the year they signed him he may have had a big arbitration number which would make the Twins drop him sooner if he was in the pen and not starting.

Dobnak was paid to be a multi-inning reliever and the bonus was if he could continue starting when he signed that contract. Hopefully he gets more opportunities and is able to give us some value and be able to get a deal for next year for somebody and keep going. maybe a split contract. but anyways it wouldn't take much for us to recoup over half the value of this contract this year if he gets more opportunities and that would be nice.... or just to be worth the 3 million we are spending on him.

The 2-4 Twins are in a 5 way tie for 1rst place in the AL Central. Bader is on pace for 81 HR and 216 RBI and he has 40% of the team RBI total. Wili Castro is tied for the bullpen ERA lead with a scoreless appearance. Ober has a 4.125 WHIP Alcala is averaging 27 K's per 9 innings 3 pitchers on our roster have an ERA over 24.00 (Take out those 3 performances and our team ERA drops from 5.40 too 2.09) Christian Vazquez is 0 for 10 with no BB or HBP and is tied for the league lead in caught stealing

The Rocco question is the hardest one for me. I want to say yes, but we have had 2 massive collapses under his leadership. the kind of collapse that 1 usually gets a manager fired. So it's hard to say. Anything less than a playoff spot or at least 90 wins if we don't go to the playoffs this year should put his job in jeopardy.

I don't expect Dobnak to be in too many games, I do expect him to be a multi inning reliever going into lost games to save the pen for another day. I do think this is atleast an opportunity for Dobnak to provide value on his contract. If he can pitch a few decent games before he goes down he could be positioned to be called back up. Also if he pitches well, he could be claimed by a team that gets desperate with injuries and save the Twins some money. Always a good idea for the opportunity to showcase him for that reason. Its up to him to earn the claim when he gets sent down but its possible. I just wrote a blog post asking what you think is a justifiable season total of innings and results for his 3 million salary this season. go there and let me know.

Dobnak is set to earn 3 million in salary this season. He has value in that if he is sent to the minors, it's doubtful someone would claim his contract. He can be optioned for a fresh arm and brought back up again later in the season. There is value in that. as a reliever and maybe a spot start here or there, I am guessing he is the bulk reliever for multi-inning assignments. I wouldn't be surprised if he is pitching well for the Twins that he would get a spot start or two. So what would a successful season need to be for Dobnak to justify his 3 million salary? Would pitching in 18-25 games and getting 35-50 innings of a 3.50 ERA do the job? I have a successful season from Dobnak as: 22 G 1 start 42 IP 40 H 18 R 16 ER 15 BB 33 K's 3.43 ERA 2 W 1 L 0 SV 1 SVO If Dobnak pitches like this and goes up and down for needed arms, I think the 3 million salary would be well earned and actually a good move for this season for the team. What do you think He needs to do to justify this season's 3 million salary?

Even bolder prediction: USAFCheif’s prediction comes true.

The Twins will score more runs than their 4th in the League showing from last year. Twins will finish 2nd in the League in ERA. And with a top3 offense and top 2 pitching staff they will still finish with less than 90 wins. That sounds like the Twins.

When your third and fourth string 3B are your full time rotating bench player and DH because he is limited defensively but can hit, is our depth really depleted or just stretched a little. Keaschall is in AAA to start the season and I bet we have another option lurking somewhere.

The point was to show a history of cheap bats found by front office that were deemed a success overall.

I would use cost per WAR relative to average cost per WAR and then also compare to what our other options did and what their costs were as well.

I’m using the political excuse from both sides of the isle……. Biden’s corrupt spending and Trump’s tariff are making it too expensive to sign the players we need.

Shouldn’t CJ Cron be on the list as well as Schoop? I was also thinking Solano as well be he has already been mentioned a few times already. Garlick is another…

Buxton has a few more seasons in CF in him. His speed still grades out. I imagine he is holding up a little in CF to keep from getting injured yet again. He is probably finding a balance. I bet he picks up some this year and is a better defensive CF this year than last.

Is this the last year? The Twins could resign Vazquez to a more market value contract like 2 year 6-10 million total contract. That would give us more time. I think the complaint for Vazquez is decline in offense and he is not worth 10 million a season. But he is worth 4 or 5 so why not resign him in that range after the season.

I just wanted to point out that the Twins were 4th in the league in Runs Scored last season. And they did it with their highest run producer having 71 RBI. This season the Twins could have 4 players reach 90 RBI. (Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Lewis) I suppose any of Miranda, Jeffers, Larnarch could as well. 1B and 2B are on shaky ground with lots of options to hold the ground until the rookies arrive. So for our offense to be successful we need Lewis , Buxton, and Correa to not get injured and we need Keaschall and Emmanual Rodriguez to develop and replace the dead weight in our lineup. We should still have a top tier offense. I just wanted that pointed out.

Don’t forget the full season Contributions of Wallner. That will help add to the Twins wins. Also development of young guys like ERod and Keaschal, and Lee and Julien,

The Twins have a knack for developing pretty deep lineups 1-9 in terms of how the bottom third of our lineups typically stack up way better than the rest of the league at these spots. That and a deep productive bench is how we have managed to stay above average on offense for the last few years. This season, however, there is a potential wrench in this deal. Our new 1B is in a 2-year slump and could play himself off the roster before the season begins and Julien had an awful sophomore slump season. Luckily, we do have depth to replace them if we don’t wait too long with Castro or Lee at 2B and Miranda going to 1B and bring up E Rod or Keaschal to start somewhere in the lineup. But if France and either Lee or Julien can be average to above average hitters then the Twins can have an above average offense again. Though not as good because our bench is not as offense oriented as in the recent past. (great defensively though) Back to 1B and 2B, If France can hit .250 with 25 doubles and 10/15 HRs with 60-70 RBI and Julien swings at more pitches and hits better with 15-20 HRs 10-15 Stolen bases and .340 OBP with 60-70 RBI our offense continues to hum along. Lee could sub for Julien and hit .270 with 25 doubles and 10-15 HRs and 60-70 RBI and again we are good. Last season the Twins were 4th in the league in runs scored despite their top RBI guy only getting 71 RBIs. That is a testament to how effective a deep offense can be during the season. To include the other solid hitters we have include Jeffers, Miranda, Castro, Larnarch, and the elite Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Lewis. that is 8 solid hitters with Emmanual Rodriguez and Luke Keaschal not far away from coming up wither. That is a pretty deep collection of solid production. Here is the other part of the coin for the Twins. Elite offense and Health. The Twins have several elite offensive players: Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Wallner who could all drive-in 90+ runs for the year and raise the level of our offense to a new level. But none of these 4 guys have played and received 500 ABs in a season the last few years. Only Correa did that and he is not consistent with that either. IF these 4 guys can stay healthy and productive that would be a boon for the Twins. The best of both worlds. If France and either Lee or Julien work out and Correa, Buxton, Lewis, and Wallner play in all of the games they should. We could have a top 3 offense in the league. But that has been the case for the last 2 or 3 years. The past says it won’t happen but hope springs eternal in spring. I would like to believe that for one we can have at least 3 of our elite offensive players be elite the entire season and France and whoever is at 2nd be adequate to give us that offensive edge. This would be the year to do it with how stacked our pitched and pitching depth is going into this year.

I’m saying it with the hope the rest of the roster stays healthy so that the unproductive player goes when ERod comes up

Touché!

If he is bad meaning .700 OPS or lower he will be replaced. Larnarch or Wallner will move to 1B when ERod is up. if he is hitting.270/.360/.380 he could stick around. He has 25-30 doubles and 12-20 HR power. It’s his average that’s dropped over time.