Riverbrian

Being Pro Bader is fine. These are always subjective discussions. You like the guy and I won't argue with that. Yes I feel differently because I can see what he represents to me... A Margot replacement that can legitimately play CF. Margot, Bader... are rostered just to keep Wallner and Larnach shackled. I'm a single issue voter. I've typed many acres of real estate on this single issue. This single issue in my opinion... has set roster construction policy. I'm never complained about the Pohlads... I don't expect new ownership to jack payroll up to 200 million. This team will always struggle paying for players developed by other organizations. I'm asking one thing and one thing only. Please stop eating your young with this full allotment of 4 to 6 million dollar shortsiders. They have to develop no matter who owns the team. We can't sign Juan Soto... We have to create Juan Soto and every time they take a Matt Wallner and attach him to a 6.25 million Bader because they are afraid of left vs left. They are further from creating Juan Soto. They have purposely capped Matt Wallner at Joc Pederson at best. It doesn't give me the warm fuzzy's about our ability to develop Walter Jenkins when I see every young left handed hitter in the same damn boat. Forget about creating Soto... that's a tall order... how about just creating a Brandon Nimmo... so we don't have to pay 20 million to sign Brandon Nimmo because we didn't create a Brandon Nimmo in the first place. The Morrison's, the Gallos, The Margots, The Baders are just getting in the way of that. I will feel better about the path the Twins are on when they break their roster filling dependence on 5 to 10 million dollar innings eaters and 4 to 10 million dollar specialists. They won't break it until they stop eating out of this garbage can and start cooking meals. Develop or Die.

This comment shows that you really don't understand my point.

Like I said earlier... I'm not going to talk specific players. It's the process. By not talking about specific players... I'm also not limiting the conversation to specific players in the Twins farm system. Focus on Martin that's your choice. It's not mine. Declare him forever not capable... that's your choice not mine. Tell everybody that Mickey Gasper is not worthy of anything... You may be right... but that's your choice not mine. However... just to point the potential doors open to staffing a roster... Mickey Gasper was a member of the Boston Red Sox just a few months ago. If the Twins don't like their farm system CF options... there are 29 other teams out there and everybody has a cell phone. If I believed that the front office felt that there was nothing the Twins could do... but sign a light hitting defensive dude for 6.25 million dollars because Austin Martin sucks. I will at that point respond to Chief with yeah... I'm ready for a new front office... One that knows how a cell phone works.

Not that my words will matter but I'm getting close. I've often said that I will judge this front office on development and development alone. I've often said that if I have a problem with Rocco... I'm not coming after Rocco with my words... My words will be directed at the guy who hires the guy. Everybody is good at some things and not so good at other things and I don't know everything they are doing to make an informed opinion... It appears that they are making progress on the pitching side of development... We seem to have broken maybe briefly... but we seem to have broken our dependance on innings eaters. The young options are starting to arrive on the mound... But... Yeah... on the offensive side... I see a development problem. So yeah... I'm getting close. Right now... I'm just hoping that they stop doing this specific thing. If they don't... Yeah... I'll reach a breaking point.

Don't forget about Gilberto Celestino... He's 25 and looking for work. You and I have been through this before. I'm not going to talk about specific players. I don't know what Keirsay is going to be or could be. I won't pretend to... Same for Helman... Same for Martin. Same for Brooks Lee. Bader could go nuts this year and lead us to a World Series title. I don't know. You seem much more confident in your assessments... I'm not. Right now... On February 11, 2025... I can say that I believe in Trevor Larnach. I do believe in Trevor Larnach... I think he can hit and I think he is going to be critical for us this year. I'm counting on him and I pray for his health because health has been a bugaboo for him. My believing in Trevor Larnach adds up to nothing because Trevor isn't guaranteed anything even with my full support coming in full speed from North Dakota. He's still has to go out in 2025 and just plain do it. I'm also not going to stand here on February 11th and tell everybody on Twinsdaily that Larnach can hit left handers if we just give him a chance. I don't know that. But I will I tell everybody on Twinsdaily that if the Twins process is just to strap him to a Margot or a Bader to him every year. He without question... won't be able to hit lefthanders. His development is going to stall with a ceiling of decent against right handed hitters but needing a Margot or Bader on the roster to face left handers for him. His final year with the Twins will be 8 million in Arb plus 6 million spent on his handcuff. I'm also not going to stand here and say that his minor league splits as 24 and 25 year old are destined to be cemented in time with no hope of improvement when he reaches age 27. Unless of course... the front office... POURS THE CEMENT!!! Develop or Die

Bullpen is going to cost 13.5 million this season. That's 8 spots out of 26. With Correa, Buxton, Lopez and Vazquez taking up 84 Million. Add the 8 spots to those 4 and 13.5 to the 84 million. We are now at 32.5 million dollars left for 14 roster spots. Bader is still costing approximately 3 players at 2 million per. Regardless... the math is going to keep working the way it does... even if we add in the starting rotation cost and take it down to what's left for 9 players... the math is going to keep working the way it does. You get the point I'm making. On the other hand... When you ask the question... "Would it be preferable to be able to develop a great glove 85 OPS+ Guy". I'm not sure you get the point I'm making. I'm reminded of Jonah Hill in Moneyball... Are those my only two options? One of the greatest sentences ever typed on this website came from Mike Sixel when he said... It's a dial... not a switch. Why must the pre-arb player produce better than an 85+ and signing the 6.25 million 86+ guy is just fine. The answer to your question is No. It would be preferable to develop at least an average hitter who is a great defender or if we are lucky... hopefully better than average average hitter who is a great defender and then we got someone who can play CF when Buxton can't for the minimum in 2026 and we don't have to pay 6.25 million next year for the next Bader. . The answer to your question is also Yes: If 85 OPS+ is what happens... Bummer... I was hoping for better... However... at least that player can be sent down if he needs it. And at least we are not paying 6.25 million to someone who produced an 86 OPS+ and a career 91 OPS+ and won't be released. The Twins don't release players making 6.25 million. Trade at the deadline? Maybe... After we eat two million of it... Someone might take the remaining 2 million for this year and the 1.5 million buyout and offer up a low A player in return. Someone may not.,, Keep in mind that we probably won a bidding war to acquire him... which means that we are already paying him more than other are willing to pay him. Regardless how he plays in 2025 will go along way to answering that question. However... How we escape from Bader isn't my worry. It's the process. Develop or Die... Pete Alonso isn't coming.

Whenever someone asks me: How's it going? How are you doing today? Or something of the sort. I always reply: Ok So Far I do not want to tempt fate by responding with: I'm Well, Fantastic or Just Peachy. I'm only comfortable answering that question when I go to bed. Nick... You Just tempted the Baseball Gods with your Just Peachy. The Baseball Gods have a wicked sense of humor. This is all your fault.

The Twins are not going to bid against themselves. The fact that he signed for 6.5 million makes it a fair price. When I say 6.25 million... please understand that I'm not complaining about the market price for Bader. Free Agents cost what they cost. When you can't develop your own... you must pay for someone developed by another organization. Right Now... Harrison Bader is our 7th highest paid player. That's the cost for not developing your own. Bader's presence means that we are probably going to sign his replacement next year for once again market price. You are right... Bader as Buxton insurance means that Buxton costs more than 14 Million. He now costs 20 million because Buxton makes Bader necessary. Wallner not being able to hit left handed pitching makes Bader necessary. So... Wallner no longer costs the minimum he now costs the minimum plus 6.25 for Bader. I've done this before, I'll do it again. Leaving the 40 man out of it. 26 Roster spots and 130 Million payroll is 5 million per. If you add the money that Correa, Lopez, Buxton and Vazquez are drawing out of the kitty for roster spots this year. That's 84 million. That leaves 46 million for 22 Roster Spots. Once you factor in Correa, Lopez, Buxton and Vazquez. Bader's 6.25 million is approximately 3 roster spots in value and he is just Buxton insurance, he is just the handcuff that keeps Wallner from developing into someone that doesn't require a Bader handcuffed to him. I'm not going to list any specific names... I don't do that. I won't pretend to know what Keirsay, Helman or what anybody is going to be and I really don't pay much attention to those who claim to know what they will or could be. I'm not going to talk about those guys specifically when I say... if defense is the reason that Bader is necessary and worth 6.25 million of money that we don't have. Surely, there is someone out there who can play defense in CF and also CAN'T HIT who will make the minimum. His Defense better be DAMN Good! This team needs to develop or die. Pete Alonso ain't coming. It's the process.

Could be. There has to be a reason for it. The opposing manager is going to take that bait every time. For a team that works this hard to prevent the left handed batter from facing the left handed pitcher... they sure seem to do everything they can to invite the left hander to enter the game against them. I just don't understand the reason for the bait... because the fish it catches is going to start smelling by the ninth inning.

I have been complaining about the signing of Bader since he was signed... But I want to be clear... I'm not complaining about Bader specifically. I'm complaining about the Twins process that makes Bader necessary. I'm complaining about not only the need for a CF with a glove but the need to find someone to take AB's away from Wallner and Larnach. I'm complaining about spending 6.5 million on what Bader brings to the club that we can't live without when we actually can. I'm complaining about the need to find another Bader next year when the mutual option is declined by the club next off-season and it will be declined. I'm not anti-defense even though I spend a lot of time talking about offense. CF needs a rangy guy who can get to balls that others cant... I understand this. Bader is one of us now and I'll be cheering for him and I'm hoping that Bader at least provides that defensive ability that the CF position requires. I think the team needs to add speed because we have a long ways to go in that department and I think Bader provides some of that. But... 6.5 million for a guy who is going to hit below average. Surely there must be some good defensive CF's who also can't hit who can make the minimum. His defense better damn good!!!

Here is what I believe. I may be wrong... I may be right... I may be somewhere in between... I have no way of knowing but here is what I believe. I think the rumors of Royce Lewis getting work in at 2B this spring training came from the possibility of signing a 1st baseman this off-season. 1B and a right handed hitting OF'er were the words coming out of Falvey's mouth when asked what they were looking for at the GM meetings. If the Twins signed Santana for example. Miranda would get pushed to primarily 3B and Lewis would get pushed to 2B. I think that is where the Lewis to 2B rumors came from. Once Santana turned out to be worth 12 million and the other 1B options fell off the board. I think the Twins pivoted to Miranda is now the guy and those Lewis to 2B rumors have been quiet. I believe that if the Twins find a suitable 1B somehow someway before this off-season is said and done. Those Lewis to 2B rumors will be back and this time louder than before. I don't think Lewis to 2B was to accommodate Lee... I think Lewis to 2B was to accommodate the potential acquisition of a 1B. Like I said... Could be wrong... Could be right... maybe somewhere in between. But, it makes sense.

Back to your numbers. You are actually supporting a point that I make quite frequently. Others don't seem to understand my point but I'm pretty sure you do. When I say... By playing the splits right... we are actually playing them wrong. This is what I'm talking about. Our left handed hitters produced a .716 OPS against right handed pitchers. The favorable match up wasn't taken advantage of. We set up the pins and didn't knock them down. By playing the splits right... we are actually playing them wrong. There hasn't been much in the rumor mill this off-season but what were the rumors? Despite the numbers that you post that show our left handed hitters being a problem against right handed pitchers. The rumors this off-season were and are that the Twins are searching for? (Dramatic Music Here) Right Handed This... Right Handed That. Bader predictably signed for 6.5 million to take one of them right handed this or that spots. We will go get another one to play infield. They are not going to address the left handed hitters? Your numbers show the need to address left handed hitters. Despite Castro being average at best against RHP, Despite Santana being well below average against RHP and the pair of them leading the team in PA's against right handed pitchers... leading the team against all pitching... period. Despite Kepler being what Kepler has been for a long long time with no consequence. Despite Julien unfortunately crashing and burning. Despite witnessing the end of Kirilloff as we know him. The front office feels fine and is searching for RIGHT HANDED HITTERS! The same thing they were searching for in the 2023-2024 off-season when they kept Farmer and traded for Margot. The template was set and here we go again. The Train just keeps a rollin. The two left handed hitters that actually did their job against the 75% of pitching that is right handed... Wallner and Larnach. Those are the two that are being managed consistently away from left handed pitchers, those are the two that are being managed away from being self sufficient, those are the two that are being managed toward requiring a 4 to 6 million dollar player attached to them for the rest of their baseball lives just to take those 25% of AB's away. By playing the split right... they are playing it wrong. Maybe we should add some left handed hitting instead. Maybe we should focus on the 75% instead of the 25%. This is all I can see in regards to roster construction. It dominates every facet of our roster construction. Nick Nelson mentioned that Corey Provous said that Baldelli became too predictable. Corey is right... but let me say... the front office has become predictable. Another small potatoes right hander hitter is coming. Bank on it. The Twins are going to live or die on this hill.

You know I love parables, metaphors, relatable stories. Elephant-Rabbit Stew is perfect. I use the glass of wine is good for you so the front office is drinking two bottles a night. Both work.

A left handed hitter can be (actually has to be) one of the 5 guys if they exceed 3 left handers on the roster. Because they can't shield more than 3. Kepler was one of the 5 guys because they had 3 other left handed lambs. Kepler fell out of the 5 guys last year when they ran out of pure left handed hitters last year with the Wallner, Julien demotions and Kirilloff injury. We had moments where we were low on pure left handers and that's when Kepler got sucked into the vortex. The Vortex? You can't escape the system. Once you pay 10 million dollars for Margot and Farmer to face left handed pitchers. Someone has to sit against left handed pitchers so Margot and Farmer can play against them. Kepler the left hander now has to feed Margot and Farmer because Julien is no longer around to feed them. Once you start this system... you can't get out of it. When Kepler finally started to lose AB's against left handers last year... when Kepler finally got exposed to the same fate of Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff and Julien. At the time of his crash landing into this land of the shielded, Ironically... almost comically... Kepler actually had reverse splits. How about that... Kepler had better numbers against left handed hitters when they finally got yanked from him. That's the lunacy of the strict adherence of this system. In 2023... we opened the season with Gallo, Gordon, Larnach and Kepler. Plus we had Kirilloff on the IL for a potential 5 pure lefties... with Wallner and Julien yet to come. That's why I don't believe the Twins had this philosophy entering 2023. It showed up as a during the season adjustment in 2023... it seemed to arrive with Wallner and Julien. Last year for the Twins... Castro and Santana were two of the five guys. Wallner was not. That's another lunacy of this thing. We have found a way to justify Castro leading the team in AB's. We have found a way to make Castro our most important player. We have found a way to minimize a .900 OPS.

How is it his advantage? Stacking all your pure lefties within 4 spots in the order... draws out the lefthander. Are you saying it was his advantage to draw out the lefty?

Ash... This is the stuff that I come to Twinsdaily for. This is why you are one of the best. Comparing and contrasting with other teams provides points of reference for those inclined. It's valuable stuff and it has my attention. Thank you. This may surprise you considering the loudness and consistency of my dissidence on this very subject. Despite my steadfast disapproval of what appears to be a locked in method to the madness, I acknowledge the possibility of it helping a little. I have acknowledged that possibility before and I may acknowledge it again in the future. I just happen to believe that the future cost is too expensive for the little that it helps.... if it does help. Back to your numbers... I don't dispute them... I can see them on the link that you provided... but I do admit that I don't understand how it's possible that the Twins were ranked 24th RP vs RB nor do I understand 7th RP vs LB. We were so right handed batters box heavy... it doesn't make sense to me. There were just a couple of times last year that the roster exceeded 3 pure lefties on the 26 man roster. I get that the switch hitters Santana, Castro and Lee) could pull the number to 6 lefties if all were inserted into the lineup. The solution though is pretty easy. 13 Switch Hitters. We will lead the league in favorable and unfavorable matchups.

I've always wondered why Rocco would stack his left handers together. He would frequently put Julien in the 1 spot, Larnach in the 2, Wallner in the 4. For the life of me... I don't understand why he wouldn't space them out 3, 6 and 9. It's like he's daring the manager to bring the left hander by lining them up in a row to make it easy for the opposing manager. And when the opposing manager did... He would take them all out and our bench moves were gone by the 6th inning. If you only have three of them to put in the lineup... Space them out, 1,4,7 in the order or 2,5,8 in the order or 3,69 in the order. That way the left handed weapon deployedment is going to have to face a couple of right handers before getting to the 2nd left hander. Maybe then we won't lose them all in one fell swoop inning.

I agree... there are moments in the 5th inning where a pinch hitter makes sense... such as based loaded... up or down by whatever margin. However, IMO... this is not what Rocco was doing. He would simply pinch hit when the lefty came in regardless of the situation. It didn't matter if there were two out and nobody on. The lefthanded hitter was coming out... most of the time. There were a few times that he surprised me. However... in response. The middle innings can be critically important but they are typically not as important as the end innings for one simple reason. The end of the innings are the end of the game. Now or never... do or die... you can't try again next inning. If you don't score in the 5th... there are 4 more innings to take a shot at it. If you don't score in the 7th... there are 2 more innings to take a shot. The ninth... that's it. You are out of time. I'd rather have Larnach at the plate than Margot to face Erceg or Clase or whoever Detroit is going to give the ball to in the ninth.

First off all... I don't use the word back-up. With the amount of injuries that the Twins suffer year after year... use of the word backup is problematic. Regardless, I don't believe Gallo, Taylor and Santana belong in any backup conversation no matter how the word backup is intended. I think Taylor was brought on board to play CF full time because Buxton didn't play a single inning in the field that year. Buxton was going to be the DH exclusively that season and that is exactly what he did. Gallo... I believe was brought on board to play LF primarily full time and occasional 1B if needed. I believe Santana was signed to play 1B full time. Solano might have been brought on board for platoon work... not totally sure. Although, his splits are almost neutral and I gotta question any decision by any front office to bring in SOLANO to platoon at 1B. That would make no sense... Regardless... I have no complaint with Donnie Barrels... Yeah... he did nothing for a future but I do not question that he did something for our present at the very least. The platooning to the degree that we platoon... as we know it... or at least I know it. Seemed to begin when Wallner and Julien arrived. Gordon/Farmer seemed like the only platoon set up coming out of spring training. The club maxed out later in 2023 when the young developing left handed hitters arrived.

During the time of Garlick... Kyle was the only short sider on the roster. Kyle Garlick didn't cost 6 million. He cost the minimum. The Twins have taken it up a notch since then... actually all of the notches... utilizing 6 roster spots the past few years. We have transformed from one guy at the minimum to over 10 million spent annually for the full allotment. The article guy that the Twins sign will most likely be able to play SS but... take it to the bank... article guy will be right handed and he will pair with Julien at 2B.

I read Keith Law for fun... I just don't read him and think to myself... Lee is a can't miss dude. I'd rather find out in real time. Julien was a can't miss guy after his amazing 2023 enough of a can't miss guy that Polanco could be split into 4 smaller pieces and Julien missed in 2024. I'm not going to predict his 2025 for Julien... Let's find out. Baseball careers are a ping pong ball. I'm not going to say that Kiersay has no chance... I can only guarantee that Kiersay has no chance when they pay a defensive specialist like Bader 6 million dollars. I can't say if Emma needs more seasoning but I can say that Emma will get more seasoning when they pay Bader 6 million dollars. I'm not even going to say that Bader or Article guy has no chance... I'll be cheering real hard for them because it's in my best interest to do so. However, you and I can both guarantee that the money spent on Bader and article guy will not be available to throw your hat in the ring for that guy that WAS DEVELOPED BY ANOTHER ORGANIZATION that doesn't need to be platooned and everyone needs to understand that we are not developing that guy who doesn't need to be platooned. That has been put on hold for two years running and article guy is going to make it three years. I believe front offices have the power to give certain players chance after chance (Kepler, Buxton, Sano) and certain players get one shot (Rooker) and some get no shot. The front office job has to be tough.. I understand the near impossibility of getting it right all the time under the constraints of the CBA timelines, the limitations of 40 man roster protection and 26 man opportunity. They have to make tough decisions based on the best information that they have. If I can quote Paul Simons 50 ways to leave your lover. Lee is the Key to getting yourself Free. Article guy is the key to needing another article guy next year and not having the money again to sign that guy that was developed by another organization that doesn't need to be platooned. You and I see this. It's hard not to see anything else when the virtues of DeJong and Urias are being discussed... because really... Quoting Metallica. Nothing Else Matters.

Lee still has options so I'm not convinced he's at a turning point this young in his career. However... the problem (waving at the topic of this article). Signing Article Guy for another 4 to 6 million is going to knock someone off the 26 man. That person just might be Lee. That's OK because we need players to come up when the need comes and the need will come but Lee will be back in that same prove it right now now role that he faced last year when that call comes. Miranda at 1B, Julien/Article Guy platoon at 2B, Lewis at 3B and Correa at SS. I'd guess that Buxton DH's against lefties. While Bader plays CF against the LH. With Castro and Martin taking up the corners OF spots with Cole Ragans on the mound. Against the Right Handers... Castro and Larnach will handle left field with Larnach handling the lions share of DH work but still playing in left when Castro is filling in for maintenance days elsewhere at other positions. Buxton in CF (Bader on Maintenance Days) with Wallner in RF. Full time 5: Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Miranda and Castro Left Handed Platoon Guys: Wallner, Larnach and Julien Right Handed Platoon Guys: Bader, Martin and Article Guy 2 Catchers for a total of 13. Then the season will come... players will get injured... some players with options will struggle and need to be sent down and the Twins will desperately try to keep the integrity of the system together. In the meantime, We will have spent over 10 million that we don't have on Bader and Article guy, Development will be compromised again for another year and we will have to spend 10 million that we don't have next year to replace article guy because we didn't develop a pre-arb cheaper option. When Lee was the key all along to kicking the dependence on article guy all along to freeing up that 10 million to be able to afford Pete Alonso. Sorry Chia Pet... I'm fixated again. It's all I can see. The system permeates every thing.

Thanks Ash All these years... You are consistently one of the brightest lights on this website. You are one of the reasons to hang around.

Not sure if I'm allowed to talk about it. If I were allowed... It wasn't I who brought up Henderson as a comparison but the poster isn't ridiculous because we won't sign Gunner Henderson. We have to grow a Gunner Henderson. I'd ask you to please go back and check Gunnar's 2022 splits, his 2023 splits and his 2024 splits and take note of the progression. Splits will bounce around typically so a progression like this isn't normal but what you see is a left handed hitter that was never platooned and progressed to what you say he is. All teams platoon. The Orioles consistently kept Ryan O' Hearn away from left handed pitching and that was really about the extent of their consistent platooning. Next you have to count how many left handed hitters are on the Orioles roster. Henderson, O'Hearn, Cowser, Mullins, Holliday, Kjerstad. Only O'Hearn was consistently kept away from left handed pitchers despite all teams having the capability of consistently platooning 3 left handers every day. As for the Wallner and Larnach failing to prove it. If you are right... the Twins have failed to develop left handed hitting because... yes... all teams platoon but no other team has shut down their entire left handed hitting department. The Twins stand alone. The Twins will need to fix this development hole quickly because the result is a farm system that can only produce a left handed hitter that requires a Paul DeJong (topic relevance) to attach and shadow it. Sorry Jocko Hey... My wife told me she saw a bear on the way to work. I was surprised by that so I asked her how she knew it was on it's way to work.