Riverbrian

You are right... I did miss the big guy from Missouri.

To add to my post. This is what we got for these 14 players on other rosters last year. Paddack, Pablo Lopez, Salas, Pagan, Mahle, Cave, Jorge Lopez, DeSclafini, Topa, Gabriel Gonzalez, Bowen, Kiner-Falefa (Sanchez, Urshela), Ronny Henriquez, Martin and Woods Richardson. 4 players for the current roster. (Paddack, Pablo Lopez, Martin and Wood-Richardson). 4 in the minors (Salas, Topa, Gonzalez and Bowen). Only Gonzalez is considered a higher level prospect. 8 gone with basically nothing returned. (Pagan, Mahle, Cave, J. Lopez, DeSclafini, Sanchez, Urshela, Henriquez). This could be a reason why we are shopping in the lower levels.

Thanks for the article... it provides perspective from a league standpoint. Agreed... It's much more complicated than my simplification of what I see as an issue. Front offices basically are doing rocket science level work and I'm taking out both the rocket and the science to just present bare bones numbers of the end result and there a bunch of paths to get to that end result. However, my simplified end result is still... the end result of all that rocket science no matter how we got here. Drafting well is only the beginning. There is also a whole lot of middle. That middle is development of the drafted player. The Twins may have been tied for 4th most with 26 drafted players on opening day rosters. But, the number was 12 of them on the opening day 2024 Twins roster. What happened to the other 14 and what did we get for them? Did we develop them and trade them or did we trade them while another organization developed them. Did we trade them because we had a fear of them? Felt safer with a vet acquisition? Many questions to be answered and each individual is an individual story. The end result is this... right now... we will break camp with 8 pre-arb players and therefore can't afford upper tier free agency so lower tier it is. That's how Ty France ends up being needed. The Brewers are going with 17 pre-arb players and that adds up to 12.9 million dollars. If the Twins are spending 130 million this year. 17 pre-arb players at 12.9 million dollars would leave them 117 million for the remaining 9 roster spots Which is an average of 13 million per. Now we can play at the upper levels of free agency a little but we are not doing that. 8 Pre-Arb at the minimum is 6 million dollars. At 130 million that leaves us 124 million to spend on 18 players for 6.9 million per and we are spending that 6.9 million per on lower tier. BTW... Rooker, Arraez, Steer, E-Strand, Rogers, Gil, Cano, Hendriks, Polanco, Garver, Rortvedt, Berrios and Wade Jr. are the other 14 playing elsewhere across the fruited plain. BTW... 1st Base development has been brought up and rightfully so. There are 5 potential 1st basemen on the above list of 14 and a catcher.

Agreed I only listed those who were drafted and developed in the first paragraph. The next paragraph was all about the inexpensive talent that other teams are utilizing regardless of how they were acquired and this is where the Twins are... well... inadequate. And I use the word inadequate relative to the budget constraints that the Twins have had since... well... forever. That way we can all compare and contrast with other clubs with similar budget constraints and even a couple that don't have budgets constrained to our level. There are three primary means of talent acquisition. Draft, Trade, Free Agency. The third option free agency is barely available to us... Due to budget limitations that are always going to be there. I don't care who the new owner is... the Twins are not going to leap into a 200 million plus payroll all of a sudden. With free agency reduced to 2nd and third tier options at money 4 to 10 times the MLB minimum. Draft development and development of who we trade for will have to compensate for the minimization of one of the three available talent acquisition options. If we can't afford to buy players developed by other organizations... we damn well better do better developing our own via drafted or traded for players. Whatever way those three roster staffing options are sliced up to construct each individual team rosters. The Twins have put themselves in a position of only 8 pre-arb players projected to make the 2025 roster out of camp. 3 of those 8 players will be arbitration eligible next year. Only 8 of them compared to Cleveland and Milwaukee alone will knock us out of the 1st tier if we wanted to take a shot at a 1st tier Carlos Correa type free agent. It doesn't have to be the budget knocking us out of contention for 1st tier... it's this. Now I wouldn't personally pay 12 million for Carlos Santana but the number of pre-arb players on the roster is why Cleveland (with 16 of them) can afford 12 million for Carlos Santana and we can't. This is also how Cleveland can afford him and still have a lower payroll than us. The pre-arb player is the key to everything. And to circle back to your point and your point is accurate in my opinion. I've been spinning my wheels trying to explain this to others, OK Kiersay is not good enough so we got to get 6.25 million for a lower tier FA. That's it then? We have no choice. We can't look beyond the borders of our roster? We can't acquire someone like Cleveland does? Like Milwaukee does? Like Detroit does? Doesn't have to be Jackson Holliday that we swing a deal for. Can't trade for a younger player if we can't produce a younger player? I doubt that... I think we can trade for younger players. I also doubt that we can't produce more pre-arb talent ourselves but if they can't... if they can't... and many here think they can't. Well... then we have to make some serious adjustments to our development program so we can because that isn't sustainable. We will crash and burn under our budget constraints that are not going to go away. Everyone on Twinsdaily needs to remember that it was just a couple of years ago that Willi Castro was acquired with a minor league deal and now we are paying him 6 million. Back in the Winter of 2022... I wouldn't be able to confidently stand on the rooftops of Twinsdaily and proclaim... WILLI CASTRO... that's the guy... let's go get Willi Castro. Yet... we stop at the waters edge of Martin and Keirsay and say... Nope... we have no other options... Must go get 2nd and 3rd tier roster filler and pay 4 to 10 times the minimum for that tier which is going to take us out of the top tier every single time. Willi Castro is one of the reasons why I'm not discussing specific names. How could any of us come up with Willi Castro December 2022 as an example for why you don't need to pay 11 million to Joey Gallo.

The number of home grown Twins isn't horrible. 7 offensive players projected to break camp with us that were drafted and developed by this front office. 7 is actually kind of impressive compared to other teams. However... As you astutely point out. The Elite player is missing from the offensive side and it's the elite player with years of control that every team in the world wants. Lewis was the 1st pick overall... injuries have probably held him back... We have high hopes for him but we should have high hopes because he was the 1st pick overall. Wallner, Larnach and Julien development have been capped (self imposed) to requiring a right handed compliment and the roster filling space this requires to compliment them. Jeffers and MIranda are decent enough to be better than that roster filler... and of course Lee... who we have those high hopes attached that go with a top ten overall pick but ??? Then if you look around the league. Projected 2025 Opening day Rosters: Cleveland 16 Pre-Arb Players Milwaukee 15 Pre-Arb Players Tampa 15-Pre-Arb Players Detroit 13 Pre-Arb Players Royals 12 Pre-Arb Players Astros 12 Pre-Arb Players Jays 10 Pre-Arb Players Twins 8 Pre-Arb Players These are teams that won games last year. You start to realize that development is not where it needs to be amidst budget constraints. Budget constraints amidst significant financial commitment to 2nd tier roster filler. You stop and think about Milwaukee and... you gotta ask... What is going on in Minnesota.

I'm going to try and keep my jaw from hitting the floor. Words are Words... Actions are actions. Managers need to be supportive when discussing his players... especially before anything has happened so supportive words are not surprising... although the no-platoon part is detail I wouldn't have expected. Rocco's words read like France is vital. France's contract sounds like he might or might not make the team. Actions will determine what these words meant. Gonna have to wait to find out how he is indeed deployed. Hope he does well. It's in my best interest that he does well.

Agreed... They have focused on boppers in the draft... It's kinda curious with that focus... why over the past 6 Years since Mauer left. Our version of Power Hitting Bob hasn't shown up... or even on the horizon.

I agree... I'm also torn. When Chief asked me why I'm not demanding a new front office... All I can say is I'm getting close. Everybody I've ever known in life is good at some things and not so good at others things. Baby Bathwater... that kinda thing. I think this front office has been a vast improvement over what Terry Ryan was doing. We are not signing innings eaters because the farm is starting to produce arms. That's huge and it will pay off in the long run. Ultimately, I'm going to judge this front office on development and development alone. Development fills spaces... development provides trade value. development provides more money to sign bigger and better. What I see them doing with our young position players right now is strip mining them for parts. That just continues the cycle. I guess... Basically... I don't want to join the millions and millions of fans who are calling for their head coach to be fired. Right now... I just want them to stop doing this specific thing.

And this means that we are in agreement. I'm not leveling my frustrations at Bader. If the Twins are going to operate how they operate and they are going to operate how they operate. Bader checks boxes. I just think it's FO malfeasance to be in the position of needing what Bader represents and it is going to repeat itself... the team has committed to the bit. We are going to spend another X amount of millions next year just to find a replacement for Bader in 2026 to avoid the same FO malfeasance next year that you are talking about this year. This train isn't going to stop because if Wallner is kept away from left handers this year for the third year in a row. What's going to change in the 4th year? Oh... He's ready now. Nope... he will require Margot/Bader/Connor Joe. It won't stop until they just stop doing this. We have two left handers practically guaranteed to make the roster. Why don't we spend that 6 million on someone who bats left handed instead. You won't hear me complain as loud if they did that... but you and I both know that they are searching for right handed bats despite having right handed bats all over the place. I can't (won't) go down the rabbit hole of specific names. I realize that the discussion and subjective opinions of certain players is the lifeblood of forums like this one but... it doesn't seem to matter how many times I say... It's not Bader specifically... I still got some guy from New York City with no idea what I'm saying. Bader is great... Martin sucks. Well... that's it then... Go see Joe Pohlad and whip out the check book and pay that 6.25 million I guess there is nobody else on the planet. Keirsay is the only option and he sucks... well that's it then... go see Joe Pohlad and whip out that check book. The end of creativity as we know it and I feel fine. Ash calls it a stupidity tax... he's right... can't produce a catcher who can OPS .575. Well... Go see Joe Pohland and whip out that check book and pay 30 million for Vazquez. Can't find that CF who can OPS .657 and catch the baseball. Go see Joe Pohland and whip out that check book. Want to spend some money on someone bigger that doesn't need to be platooned... someone who can join Correa, Buxton and Lewis as actual talent at the plate. Go see Joe Pohlad but guess what... he's saying no because we already spent 16 million filling holes with low bar guys that someone making the minimum could replicate. All of us should know by now... the Twins can't afford to pay for players developed by other organizations... As much as this board gets worked up over the Pohlads... We know... we all know that they won't pay for players developed by other organizations. Unfortunately... It turns out that the best we can do... is develop a Wallner who requires a 6.25 million dollar player to stand along side of him... a 6.25 million dollar player developed by another organization. Keep the low bar coming... don't stop. Grab an innings eater while you are at it. Signing Bader may actually help us this year. The front office thinks he will help us. I won't argue... He check the boxes... We may squeeze some drops of lemon juice out of this lemon this year. However... Eventually we will all be looking at a lemon carcass.

Yeah but... France will be here to cover the other... If France doesn't make the team... It'll be Martin or Miranda. Wallner and Larnach are the key to getting out of this thing. Wallner and Larnach are also the key to being stuck in this thing.

If I understand this post correctly and I think I do. We have no argument. I 100% understand that Bader checks boxes in regards to organizational philosophy. I knew that him or someone like him was coming based on organizational philosophy. Capable defensive CF when Buxton is hurt, the DH or getting a maintenance day... Check. Someone with some speed on a team that is well below average in that department... check... And of course... Someone who will prevent Wallner from facing left handers. Check. Mad... Nope... Knew it was coming. France as well. Knew it was coming. Check... Check. I've been saying this was coming for quite some time. As Jocko pointed out... It's all I've been saying for quite some time and I know it's all I've got because this thing controls our roster construction and nothing else really matters. It's why he is here. I want off this merry go round... I know why they are doing this... you know why they are doing this. It's not Bader that I'm railing against. It's the self created need for Bader and the 6.25 million spent because they self created this need. Mad? Nope... Resigned to it is what I am. I just got done reading an article in the local paper. It says "The Twins are going to spend this spring getting Bader reintroduced to Left Field". Yep... of course they are. There was a reason they were looking for right handed hitters and not left handed hitters with only two left handed hitters guaranteed to make the 26 man roster. When Chief asks me why I'm not demanding a new front office. It's a fair question. How did we get here?

Juan Soto This specific player thing works out great!

Ty France and players like him probably have their pick of minor league deals. You sign a minor league deal if nobody is offering you a 40 man spot. If the Twins want him and obviously they did... then they must give what other teams will not. In other words... the Twins won the bidding war against the other 29 teams by simply offering a 40 man spot.

Facts for 2025 have not arrived yet. It's all hypothetical. Everything is hypothetical. Counter-Factual? What's factual? Harrison Bader might OPS+ 110 this year. Even if he doesn't match his 2021 offensive output... Harrison Bader just might be exactly what the doctor ordered. I'm not going to argue about Bader specifically. It's the system that requires Bader that is driving these types of roster decisions. As long as anyone believes and posts with all the conviction that they can muster that they KNOW what Kiersay will do if given a chance... hypothetically of course. The discussion isn't going to circle... it's going to crater. It won't get off the ground. OK... forget about Kiersay and what you KNOW he will do. Anybody else? Anybody? No? Nobody? Well... we need to pay 6.25 million I guess? We can't fill these spaces internally? The system doesn't have it. Why not? Can't we go outside the system. The front office has been in place for quite some time. Cleveland is filling these spaces internally. 17 Pre-Arb players will break camp with Cleveland. Detroit is filling these spaces internally. Nothing but pre-arb and they shot right past us after selling at the deadline. We can't? Cleveland spent 2024 with Tyler Freeman, Angel Martinez and Daniel Schneeman in CF. OPS of .626, 635 and .671 OPS respectively. I know those numbers are not going to win any arguments. And Cleveland addressed those numbers at the deadline like you should. They traded for Lane Thomas and his .738 Nationals OPS at the deadline. Lane took over CF for the stretch run produced a .657 OPS just like everybody else was doing before he arrived. Cleveland still won the AL Central and arrived at the AL Championship series with a bunch of pre-arb players surrounding Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Bibee and Lane Thomas. The Twins? Well apparently The Twins will have to decide between Bader and nobody capable in the current Twins system. Why is that? Are we better off with 1 bigger free agent or 3 smaller ones? It's a legit debate. Well... it's hard to have the 1 bigger free agent discussion when those inclined to discuss are already casting off Pre-Arb player A and Pre-Arb player B that will be required to go the 1 bigger route. And they don't know... I don't know but specific players for Pre-Arb A and Pre-Arb B are non-starters so... Well... Let's pay 6.25 million and let's trade Vazquez and Paddack to some GM who doesn't know why we want to trade Vazquez and Paddack in the first place. And of course... Bader isn't here just to play CF when Buxton hits the IL again. Bader is also here to keep Wallner from facing lefties. France if he makes the roster is going to do the same thing... play the same role. France is here to keep us dependent on this type of player next year. We have two left handers who are for sure to make this roster. Maybe 3 with Julien... and what were the Twins looking for? They are looking for right Handed hitters. What did they sign? Right Handed Hitters. We got too many of them left handed guys. Wallner shielded from left handers because he might OPS in the .600 25% of the time if given a chance... means Wallner in the same role in 2026... which means... we will be looking for the same low level right handed free agent next year who is just so happens to be coming off a season with an OPS in the .600's,,, 100% of the time. How do we break this yearly dependence on this type of low level free agent? The only thing I can think of is. Stop being dependent upon them. How do stop being dependent on them. The answer is... Martin sucks I guess.

That comment is probably the closest thing you've said to what Chia Pet, I and others have been saying. Took you long enough. 😉

I'm currently looking for a GIF that has Jonah Hill sitting on that couch in the movie Moneyball that says "Are these my only 7 options" I'm requesting a little help from the TD community. I don't have the skill but I'll bet someone in this community could create one so I can reply with it. This fantastical idea that great fielding and average hitting CF are just out there for the Twins to pick is just not true. Again... you are not understanding what I and others are saying. And you are also assuming that I don't understand the market prices. Stop assuming that I don't understand the market prices and you won't waste your time coming up a list of 5 players to try to convince me of something that I'm not saying. BTW... On your list... 3 out of the 5 you came up with were developed by their organizations that's how far off the mark you are... you don't even realize that you are making our points when you trying so damn hard to refute our points. Here's another thing. There are multiple people that you are fighting here... You probably shouldn't put them all into a group that you call Bader Haters because everyone is coming from different places. That way I don't have to constantly say... I don't hate Bader when you throw me into that group. Maybe then you don't have to tell someone that Emma isn't getting blocked to someone who knows that Emma isn't going to be blocked. I can guarantee you that Chia Pet doesn't think Emma is going to get blocked. Trust me... Chia Pet understands that Emma will be called up in 2025 when injuries happen. Chia Pet would like to see Emma break camp with the club. Chia Pet and I are pretty closely aligned on our thinking and even I'm not so sure that Emma should break camp with the club... but I understand where he is coming from because... well... the rest is for you to figure out. Enough real estate has been typed on this subject and you haven't left the porch.

If he makes the club... He's going to short side until injuries make him long side. The question is where? 1B, DH or 2B.

Leaning into what they are good at is something that we all do in all walks of life... yet while I suck at fixing the screen door when it breaks. That thing is going to break someday and I'm going to have to grab a tool of some sort and get better at it or pay $300 dollars for that screen door guy to come track mud in my house. What I'm about to say... will seem like a cheap shot... it's not. Right now... they appear to be doing OK at developing pitching and they appear to be horrible at developing left handed hitters who can hit left handed pitching and now we are paying every single year for that screen door guy. I'll add... I'm not sure that they are horrible at developing left handed hitters who can hit left handed pitching. I'm suggesting that I think it's quite possible that they are not even trying to grab a wrench, scratch awl or swiss army knife to fix that screen door. They are just calling the screen door guy.

I don't care who you or others expect to make the major league roster. And I am not going to get into a discussion about the pro's and con's of Mickey Gasper. I only used his name as an example of a player that the Twins went out and acquired from another organization. I really don't care what your opinion of Mickey Gasper is. I don't have an opinion on him. I used his name as an example of THIS ISN'T A DISCUSSION THAT NEEDS TO BE LIMITED TO Bader or Kiersay because the Twins reached out and acquired someone from another organization rather cheaply. And I really don't care if we have throngs of people saying that Keirsay will never make it so we got to go get Bader. They don't know... I don't know and those two players are not the only options. Do I have to place a Jonah Hill from Moneyball GIF here. OK I will AND I"M GOING TO SAY THIS ONE LAST TIME. I'm not mad at Bader. It's the process that keeps the auto-fill on. Go ahead and tell me that they can't fill these spots internally. Maybe they can... maybe they can't. I reject your assessments of the options and I also reject my own. you may be wrong... you may be right. Go ahead and tell me that I'm just ignoring the state of the organization. I'm not and you are just being obtuse when you say things like that. You can't seem to grasp that this entire point being made... isn't about Bader... It's ABOUT THE STATE OF THE ORGANIZATION. But... Keep typing Martin sucks over and over and over because that aught to fix things. If that is indeed the state of the organization... I'm going to ask WHY is that? Because Pete Alonso isn't coming... we need to develop or die because we can't afford to acquire players developed by other organizations. Earlier this morning I took the time to respond to an intelligent response to this discussion. I stated that Cleveland is able to fill these spots internally. Kansas City is able to fill these spots internally. Detroit is filling these spots internally. The Twins can't with the third ranked farm system? Yet... you are telling me that the Twins can't find a CF who can go get that baseball in CF and hit as poorly as Bader has hit over his career for 5.5 million less and you can't seem to get past... I love Bader and I don't like these other players.

Understood and I won't argue your point. If it was easy... we wouldn't have the catching market pricing that exists. The market pricing that pays Vazquez 30 million over 3 years. However, food for thought. A. Why does the catcher have to hit major league pitching and have a low pop time to 2B? Vazquez may have that low pop time to 2B but he can't hit. Why is the expectation for a pre-arb catcher that he provides both of these things when we don't ask Vazquez for this and pay him 10 million? There are roughly 60 MLB catching jobs at all times of the season. The talent level in those 60 jobs ranges Adley to Liam Hicks. We don't have to develop Will Smith. It's a dial... not a switch. B. The Dodgers don't seem to have a problem developing catchers drafting at the end of each round. Will Smith came from their system. They also developed Ruiz and traded him to help acquire Trae Turner and Max Scherzer. Connor Wong was traded to help acquire Mookie Betts. Cartaya has spilled overboard and is now on our 40 man roster. Camargo is also on our 40 man roster taking up precious space for the 2nd straight year... we shouldn't forget that Camargo was also acquired in a trade from the Dodgers catching factory and he was someone who helped acquire Mookie Betts and Brusdar. And they are still sitting with Feduccia and Rushing in their system. It's a dial not a switch. I don't expect the Twins to all of sudden match the output of the Dodgers but they should strive to get there because of the market prices being paid for catchers. For the moment... I'll lower my expectations to the bare minimum... I'll lower my expectations to just settle for one guy who doesn't cost 10 million to play behind the plate who can catch, frame, pop time, arm strength and it's ok if he hits just as poorly as Vazquez does. We can spend that 10 million elsewhere. I don't think I'm asking for that much.

Providing specific names are always great for these discussions but the reason I refuse to discuss specific names and instead focus on the process is. A: I really don't know how anybody is going to perform and the front office doesn't either. The conversation dies the minute someone who also doesn't know how anybody is going to perform is already convinced that this specific name will not make it. B: The front office really shouldn't be limited to the choice of either Bader or Keirsay and nobody else with a whole wide world out there. If the Twins front office have failed to develop the good defense and low bar offense that Bader brings to the table. That's on the front office... you call it a stupidity tax... you are correct. This off-season could have been spent addressing this specific organizational failure to bring in the defensive CF version of Mickey Gasper. Anyway... Excellent post as always. When I find some time... I will read up on Efficient Frontiers. Maybe write a song about it. Frontiers will rhyme with years, beers and fears so someone with Bob Dylan skills has a chance to produce a hit.

Thanks String. You are a breath of fresh air. Your sensible post was very much needed. You are right... Canha will probably get a major league job somewhere. However, for counter examples... The Tigers really haven't this year. Unless you want to call a reliever like Brebbia at 2.7 a marginal guy. The Tigers cleared the marginal guys out at the deadline and went on a winning streak with a team full of pre-arb players. With the money saved by developed pre-arb talent. The Tigers were able to play in the upper echelon of the market this off-season. They have signed Flaherty, Torres, Cobb, Kahnle and are rumored to be one of the teams still in on Bregman until the he signed with the Red Sox. Cleveland spent 12 million on Santana this year... otherwise... they are going to roll out of spring training with 17 pre-arb players on the roster. Cleveland apparently has a little more development juice than we have. Depending on what you think of Lorenzen... The Royals didn't. They re-signed Wacha for 17 million and Estevez for 11 million for the top of the bullpen. The Jays, Rangers, Rays, Giants, Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox haven't really dipped into this pool... yet. As for not having people in the system for these roles. Why don't we? I'm not asking that question like I have the answer... I'm asking the question... Why indeed... do we not have the people in the system? Our Farm system is like 3rd ranked. Cleveland has these people in their system. Why don't we. The players we are paying for to cover for not having the people in our system are setting pretty low bars to clear. My opinion... just an opinion is that the Auto-Filling of these types of players isn't helping. And in regards to not having the people in our system. We can make trades with other teams to address those holes. I'm not sure what hole Gasper fills but we traded for him. Don't have a CF in the system... trade for one. Instead we traded one away. If we don't have these people in their system... this front office has been in place too long to be having this particular problem. Where would we have been in 2023 without Taylor, Solano and Farmer? I don't know. I love what Solano did... Farmer and Taylor did play decently but both of them had to have career years at the plate to still be below average offensively. The counter question is... Where would we have been in 2023 with Bellinger and two pre-arb players instead of those three. I don't know the answer to that but that is the question that I debate in my head... Are you better off with one big piece or three smaller pieces?