Riverbrian

Quite possible It's hard to know with concussions and especially with no inside information and even if I had inside information... I wouldn't be sure what to do with that info since I was sleeping in med school. If I were to guess... Wallner will spend at least the weekend in St. Paul tuning up especially with two left handers throwing for the Royals. Tampa follows with a parade of right handed starters. I'm planning on going to the Twins game on Saturday and just might attend the Saints game that night. I'd like to see Wallner up close because the players are right on top of you in St. Paul. Anyway, if Wallner beats Buxton to the club. I think that would be bad news on the concussion front with Buxton extending past the 7 required days.

I'm going to repeat what I thought back at the time of the trade. At the time of the trade... I questioned if the Twins were better off with one big player (Polonco) or 3 maybe 4 smaller pieces (The players we spent the Polanco money on)... especially coming off a decent year in the playoffs. I didn't declare... I questioned it at the time. Despite the terrible year that Polanco had and the decent year that Santana had... I'm ready to declare that I think we would have been better off with the one big player. I'm not inclined to argue player for player... Santana worked out, Disco and Margot did not. I'm more inclined to argue concept and in the end... it was one positive in Santana and three negatives with dollar figures attached to them in Disco, Margot and Farmer. Yes I'm including Margot since he ate up some of the savings that Polanco provided and I'm including Farmer because he was chosen to stay at significant money when they could have kept Polanco instead. At the time of the trade... despite the loss of Polanco which I thought would be a blow. I still thought it was possible that the Twins won the trade. IF and only if Gonzalez develops into something in the future. It's going to be up the to the Twins development staff to win this trade. Trades are tough... gonna win some and lose some. Developing G.G. is how you win trades.

It's been a bit of roster utilization chaos for the past 6 days starting with the Bader and France tweaks followed by the collision and Castro in and out. In the calmer stretch of health for 5 days just prior to the injuries. Buxton, Correa, Lee, France, Bader, Castro and Larnach were every day must have's for Rocco. Lewis could also be considered every day but he was also seemingly being eased in. DH'ing for a couple to start and a day off after two games at 3B. Correa ended up resting before a day off followed by rainout and ended up sitting an extra day during the rain makeup double header. Clemens was the first choice primary fill in when Lewis and Correa took that time off. Bride and Keirsay were basically glued to the bench. Interesting utilization notes during the calmer stretch of health. Castro became an outfielder exclusively when he returned on May 6. I find that interesting because infield was the perceived need when Bride and Clemens were signed after injuries to Castro and Keaschall. I get it but when Lewis and Castro returned on the same day infielders Gasper and Julien were sent down. Castro moved to OF which suggests that one of Bride or Clemens was infield superfluous and that is based on Castro... let's call it... flowing to the OF low spot upon return. Larnach was holding down the DH spot. Then the chaos hit. France, Bader, the collision boys and Castro unavailable for either a couple games or placed on the IL7 on back to back days. The adjustments that Rocco has needed to make in the face of all that: Jeffers became an everyday player either Catching or DH'ing when not catching. Clemens and Keirsay have become everyday players (at least against right handed starters) in what has been a short window thus far with more window to come. A couple of thoughts on the chaos section. Clemens so far has been a small sample godsend. He's been our best hitter during this stretch of chaos and winning streak. Will he continue to be a good hitter... maybe... maybe not but I do hope so. I wasn't keen on his addition because I felt that spot belonged to McCusker but if he ends up being one of the those guys who just needed a chance. He's getting his chance and doing something with it. Good for Kody. We have faced 5 right handed starters since the injuries. Last night was the first time we faced a left handed starter so we only have that game to judge. Apart from Larnach, all the other left handers (Clemens, Kiersay and Fitzgerald were out of the lineup last night. I'm ok with that although in a slight nitpick... I think I would have let Clemens play just because he's hitting the ball right now. Not a big deal... Clemens sitting gave Bride a chance to play. Larnach continues to face left handers. After an 0 for 11 start... he has gone 6 for 24 since. I continue to be happy with how Rocco has changed in this regard. I continue to count on Larnach and I see him as someone with the potential to get hot and carry us from time to time. McCusker got a start last night against the left hander and we will see how the game finishes up today and Fitzgerald may get a courtesy start but there is nothing that they can do to avoid getting returned to St. Paul if Correa and Buxton are ready after 7 days. Through the stability and the Chaos of this incredible stretch of winning. Clemens, Larnach and Bader have been the offensive leaders. Even Vazquez has hit the ball average. All in all, the Twins have the 7th best OPS in the league over the last 15 days while the pitching has the 2nd best ERA with a 2.08 team ERA.

I believe that Buxton and Correa are eligible to return on Friday. We all know that he is going back to St. Paul when Buxton is activated. During this IL7 window. The only left hander starter scheduled was Logan Allen last night and that game was interrupted by Rain. Ironically, after McCusker is sent down. The Royals will throw a couple lefties at the Twins over the weekend. The extent of his opportunity will be short. He could finish today's game with two home runs or two strikeouts or anything in between. He's going back to St. Paul regardless.

Eventually, I'm going to steal this quote from you and claim it as my own. It'll be like Mike Sixel's "It's a dial not a switch". I'll take the same path to my theft. I'll give you credit for a while so everyone can see that I'm giving proper credit for the source. Then eventually, I'll just stop giving out the credit and simply use it more often and it will be mine. Just a heads up.

When we go back to what we were taught and what we teach as coaches. The easy answer without nuance is: It's an easier catch for the outfielder coming in so it's the outfielders ball. The outfielder is supposed to take charge and call off the infielder. That's the golden rule that we all know and it is largely correct but not always. This play had some nuance to that rule that we try to make black and white. #1 - Common Sense is still required - The golden rule that we all know doesn't mean that the outfielder should run into the infield to catch the ball. Now Buxton didn't run into the infield but close enough. He was parked by the warning track. The ball had to be hit high in order for him cover that much ground and it was impressive how much ground he covered. However... common sense, experience should have told Buck that Correa would be camped under that thing. Correa is pretty good, Buxton had no reason to Kelly Leak that thing. #2 - Nobody should call for the ball unless they are sure that they are going to catch it. Buxton isn't going to be confident that he's got it until he covers the majority of the distance and it was a lot of distance. #3 - Regardless, I like the effort. I like that Buxton is pumped up with the winning streak enough to run 3 miles to make a play. I like that Buxton is excited to be playing baseball, when I by a ticket to the game, Buxton excited to play baseball is what I want to see. He made a tough catch and worked his ass off to make it. I wouldn't be scolding Buxton. #4 - Things happen.

I didn't see this coming and I'm not sure why but Commissioner Rob Manfred just declared the regular season over. The Twins will be facing the Mariners in the playoffs on Sunday in Seattle.

Just in case I forget on May 22nd... I'll get this taken care of in advance. I'd like to wish a happy 27th birthday to Carson McCusker next Thursday. 😉 Some are but I'm not triggered by age. Here's why: A player doesn't have to have a full 6 years of great production with the Twins to be worth it. There are plenty of players doing well in their first or 2nd seasons in the major leagues at the age of 27. They don't have to hit like Juan Soto to be worth it. We all sit here and dream that Walter Jenkins is going to explode into amazingness at age 22 because he was drafted high and Keith Law says some nice things about him. I'm sure the Twins will give Jenkins every single chance possible to develop into what he is supposed to be... however... in the meantime, there are others who just might help. We are going to need players beyond Jenkins. Even if it's just for a year or two. Players need to compete for playing time and that competition should be constant.

I don't know if it was Tony or Rodney who finished with this sentence but in my opinion he has provided the best answer. If Not Now, When? I can't speak for "TD for the most part". However... Me, Myself... I don't think they should release Gasper because his scattered 34 AB's don't mean a thing yet. I also don't know if McCusker will just automatically do in the majors what he does in AAA. I don't know and the front office doesn't know. If the front office knew, their job would be incredibly easy. Nobody would ever need to be sent down because the front office knew and the team would win to the point that we were bored with all the winning because the front office knew. Right now... I'm watching the ball rocket off his bat since the start of the season and it's still coming off his bat hard. He has been hitting consistently good from day one, no slumps spanning 37 games now. His current AAA numbers are the best in not only St. Paul but the entire International League and he would be up there in the PCL with those numbers. He's 27 years old... There is no reason to wait until he is 28. There is an opening, we could use a hitter, giving a guy from the system a shot is how we potentially find a player that plays a role in 2026. Not giving him a shot is just putting him to sleep. If not now, when?

McCusker was 5 for 7 yesterday with 2 doubles.

On the offensive side it sure seems that way. On the pitching side... No Bundy's were signed for two years running now so it ain't all bad. They seem to have more confidence on that side of the ledger at the moment. With the Ryan regime... I think I reached my frustration point of being ready for someone new in the GM chair when the club was losing 90 plus games 6 out 7 years from 2011 to 2016 and the farm wasn't spitting anyone out that could help turn it around and the vets we were utilizing had very little trade value if we wanted to switch to a rebuild. Apart from Mauer... Brian Dozier was basically our top dog and when he used up his service time and dealt to the Dodgers for not that much. Raley has turned into an OK player but we threw him back to the Dodgers before he could be that OK player and when Dozier hit the free agent market... the rest of the league showed what they thought of our top dog during that stretch. Escobar got us Duran and that has worked out very well. It took the new regime to pull the trigger on that deal. Ryan wasn't selling at the deadline. From there... Twins development brought us an elite closer... but... again... that's development on the pitching side. Who are our primary trade pieces now? If we needed to rebuild who would fetch the most value. Ryan and Ober are the two if I had to guess. Both on the pitching side. The front office has done some good things, but development on the offensive side has to improve.

Sensible move in consideration of the double header and bullpen usage. It's nice to have an option like Festa available for such things. It's not the end of the road for SWR. He will be back at some point.

Loved his home run yesterday. And I loved his home run against Boston. He's has directly helped us win two games because it can be argued that we don't win those games without his two late game dingers and that's pretty good small sample return on the investment when you consider that he has only been on the roster for 17 games and only started 8. While I have stated issues that I had with his addition to the roster and I still have those same issues. That issue is simply trusting him over trusting someone in our system and what that says about the system. WhiIe, I have stated that concern... I am pulling for the guy. If he found a light switch at age 29 and that's possible. Maybe... Maybe Not... He could be back with us next year and beyond at the league minimum salary. I would have went with McCusker instead but... if Clemons is going to get the job done. Let him get the job done. Go get em Kody!

As usual... a solid post from the Goat. MLR's research is good work and it has value that everyone should pay attention to. It does tell a story but not the whole story. He would have to complete the analysis with all 30 teams to properly compare and contrast. Not knocking his research at all but I have a suspicion that he will find that some unsuccessful teams also have similar percentages (just lower WAR totals) because it stands to reason that almost all small market teams are going to have very low percentages of WAR in the free agent column since they don't play significantly in the free agent column and that will cause the percentages to rise in the other columns to compensate for free agency not being a viable source due to small market budget. What his research does show me is that the teams that he has highlighted have been good at what they do. They are developing and development pays off in different forms. In the end, it doesn't matter if they are developing young players who produce significant WAR coming from the draft room or if they are developing young Kluber's that they acquired as prospects from someone else. Young Prospects acquired using players that they developed into valuable trade pieces that interest other teams to keep the pre-arb train rolling. Either way... It's all talent identification and development of the player identified. Right now the Twins don't seem to have faith in what they are developing. They strip mined their developing young left handed hitters for parts which simply limits their value as players with the club and limits their value as trade pieces if they want to go another direction. They didn't have enough faith in their development of McCusker because they just exhibited more faith in Clemens (Loved his home run yesterday and the one in Boston) by giving the 29 year old Clemens the available roster spot instead. We seem to be on a bit of a lull on the offensive side of the ledger and I'm basing that on their actions and the low number of pre-arb players on the roster.

This is a great post. Very sensible in my opinion. You are correct... the current Twins 40 man roster contains 20 players who were homegrown. That's a high number in comparison to the rest of the league. Colorado leads with 24, Cleveland and San Fran have 21. The Twins rank 4th in the homegrown player on the 40 man roster list. There are 3 primary ways to build your roster... Homegrown, Trade or Free Agency. For discussions and the setting of a benchmark purposes. If a club uses all 3 avenues equally... It would be 13 Homegrown, 13 Trade and 13 Free Agents for 33%. Now if a team isn't typically inclined to be free agent players in the market. Think lower budget teams because they typically don't spend money... they are not going to sign 33% free agents. If free agency doesn't reach 33%... this is a zero sum game. Homegrown or trade will have to rise in percentage. Most teams do not reach 33% free agents. Only 7 teams to be exact. Texas leads the way with 19 free agents. Toronto and San Diego 15 free agents. Philly 14 free agents The Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers and the Yankees have 13 for exactly 33%. In the case of the Twins. 7 players are listed as free agent signings. (France, Correa, Castro, Bader, Vazquez, Coulombe, Stewart). That's 17%. Which means that 83% will be divided up between home grown and traded for. With the Twins... 50% is homegrown, 30% trade, 17% Free Agent and 1 waiver claim (Tonkin) hanging on the 40 man.

I was talking with Winston Churchill just the other day about the job of a baseball general manager. He said, “A baseball GM needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen.” Winston is a smart guy.

I know that you are going to agree with what I'm about to say. The Twins are in an interesting situation. In terms of roster development... the Twins tend to act more like the big budget teams than the lower budget teams. There is one key, major, huge difference with the big budget teams. That is Money. The Twins plugging holes with Bader and France is no different than the Mets plugging holes with Soto. The difference is the price tag and talent level. We can't keep up with them that way... no matter how good a job Bader is doing thus far... We can't do it. Being in contention, we have moved young talent for vet talent... I'm not questioning the need to do that because I think buyers should buy and sellers should sell but being in contention is largely a big market action and buying at the deadline is a form of keeping up with the big market Joneses. Being in contention has caused us to strip mine Wallner and Larnach for parts and that plays a role in development and player value. Choosing Garlick for a low level role he can play in that given year over Rooker is how you accidentally lose a Rooker. Choosing Clemons over McCusker could be more of the same. It may not... we may never know but it's the same concept. It's taking someone to keep you a float over someone who may fly. We have to develop Soto and we are not doing that. If we were able to develop a Soto. We can choose to keep him for all 6 years and enjoy his production or trade him after 4 years for Gore, Abrams and Wood and now we can add Abrams and Wood to Buxton and Correa and don't need Bader and France. If they choose to... they have given themselves a choice. Ryan and Ober have pretty good trade value right now. Probably our highest in value in regards to return on a trade if we choose to go that direction. After that... our arbitration guys that graduated from pre-arb won't return as much as we'd like to get back and in the meantime... the production from them has been just OK. The need for development is constant. It does not cease... I'm worried we have ceased a bit on the offensive side. Weather it's the guy chosen in the 1st or 9th round or the McCusker guy signed from an independent league or weather it's Austin Martin acquired in a trade for somebody who was about to cost a lot of money. Whatever the reason... the Twins are low on pre-arb players today... maybe it'll be better tomorrow but they are low on pre-arb players today and that leads to the chain of one year vets who may be great... may not be great but regardless they are gone the following year.

IMO. If allowed to nutshell a little. My biggest concern with the current Twins in terms of development is that we have graduated players from pre-arb to arb and we have hit a lull in replacement pre-arb. Once they hit arbitration they start to eat away at the available budget. Each bite from the budget takes the club further away from money available to get a bigger potentially more impactful player in free agency.

You are correct as usual. You are revealing the nuance. I don't like placing things in black and white buckets when there is so much gray to consider. But for this type of exercise you have to because you are comparing the contents of buckets. Can we really just take a player like Arraez drafted by Ryan and give him Ryan all the credit? You have to choose in order to place him in a bucket. Why does it have to be either or? Drafting and development are likely two different things and each individual is probably a combination and somewhere in the middle. Did we draft well because we developed the draft picks or we found guys who could be developed? Did we draft poorly because we failed to develop them or we found guys who couldn't be developed? And here is another consideration. Whoever gets credit for Arraez, Arraez is with the Padres. Pablo is the result of that development in regards to the Twins. Lots of nuance. Joe Ryan was drafted by the Rays and spent age 22 to age 25 in the Rays system. He was traded to the Twins for Nelson Cruz. Do the Rays wish they hadn't done that in hindsight? If they could do it over... would they do it over? Did the Rays realize what they had when they made the deal for a rental that year? Probably not would be my guess. Did the Rays develop him... of course they did but did the Twins find something extra and say try this for immediate result? Was Ryan MLB ready at the time of the deal. Was he MLB ready in April of that year? He had a 0.789 WHIP in Durham over 57 innings in 2021. He had a 0.788 WHIP in 21 Innings in the Big Leagues with the Twins in 2021. Have the Twins developed Joe Ryan further in the 4 years since the trade. I'm going to assume so. All of this is not the sole reason but yeah... a big reason why I'm struggling with our chain of low budget one year rentals on the offensive side of the ledger. The next Joe Ryan is out there somewhere. MLR did some nice research on the Rays that clearly illustrates that they have done a good job acquiring young controllable talent and I agree that it has been a key mechanism in the low budget success they have shown over the years. However, here is an example where they traded young controllable talent that is going to show up in his Twins bucket and not end up as negative in the Rays draft and development bucket? Nuance.

You are correct. It isn't fair because there is a ton of nuance. It's also kinda fair because I'm not calling for anyone's head. Because... I recognize that there is a ton of nuance. However... let me be clear. I watch as much as I can. I'm aware how players arrive on all 30 teams. There are three primary avenues to staffing your rosters. Trades, Free Agency and Farm Raised. I've just decided that development (increasing player value) is important after trades are made. And I've decided that development will make you less reliant on the low dollar free agent and it can also provide additional budget space to sign a bigger free agent if they choose to go that route. So... forgive me for nut shelling. I will judge this front office on development. Hopes, Dreams and Projections? I'm not sure what you mean by that but I have a feeling that I won't like it. Facts? I got facts and I can provide them. This front office has a winning record. 10th best record in baseball since 2017? Are your facts bigger than that fact? Are mine? Do you have Fairness under that nuance?

Substitute 15 Days for games and it takes some fuzz off. 😁

I always appreciate these posts from you. You consistently compare and contrast against other. I never doubt that you are not just watching the Twins.

Every season for every team is a rollercoaster of some sorts. Some have steeper climbs and steeper drops but they all have an up and down to them. The Twins 2025 rollercoaster started with an immediate drop and now we have been in a nice climb. There will be more ups and downs to come. Hopefully they can minimize those drops. We have completed one fourth of the season with three fourths to go. Over the first 25% of the season 41 games. Our pitching has been 5th overall in ERA. I have no complaints. Over the first 25% of the season 41 games. Our offense ranks 22nd in OPS. The last 15 games the Twins have made up a lot of ground with a 10-4 record including our current 8 game winning streak. Over that stretch. Our ERA ranks 3rd. Our Team OPS has ranked 16th. Basically our pitching has held serve and our offense has risen from terrible to average and the result has been a nice run of wins.

I will judge this front office on development and development alone. We can't afford free agents developed by other teams. Let me rephrase that... we can't afford free agents developed by other teams that other teams also have interest in. Development is so important that the success or failure of a front office can be judged by development and development alone. Multiple teams have rebuilt their farm from producing very little to producing significantly more than we do during the time of Falvey's tenure. I am simply not impressed with their ability to MacGyver low price one year vets together.

As you know... It drove me nuts as well. Mainly from a development standpoint but for multiple reasons. Late game defensive replacements make perfect sense. The threat of a home run is always present no matter the closer. If you have a lead... simply improving your odds that runners don't reach base is sensible and position flexibility gives them the option of working with multiple configurations because multiple configurations are necessary because the game is too messy to just have one. Late game pinch hits make sense... very logical tools for a manager to use. The mid game crap... just painting yourself into a corner late in the game with all options burned and handicapping development at the same time. Those offensive players that start the game should do their job... build a lead and then the defensive guys can help close it out. If Lewis is the low end defender and Keirsay is the high end defender... Castro is a vehicle to connecting it together. .