Riverbrian

This is such a complicated question with no easy answer. I believe with all my heart that Buyers should Buy and Sellers should sell or you are just standing still. I still believe that with all my heart. However, I also believe that the Twins have put themselves into a position where they can't afford the prospects necessary to be effective buyers at the deadline. We are already too far behind the rest of league in regards to major league serviceable young players making the minimum to consider putting ourselves further behind. I also believe it is quite possible that this front office has sold it's future soul of tomorrow in order to stay reasonably float today and I believe they did that yesterday the year before and the year before that and the year before that. Therefore... this is how the front office operates and a reversal of that style would require the front office to be something that they haven't really been thus far. So... to answer the question. Buyers Buy and Sellers sell. I'll stick with that. We will see what bucket they belong in at the end of July. If they are in contention to buy. I'd recommend an expiring contract rental of a decent offensive player to keep the prospect cost down. Ryan O' Hearn would be a good example... but only if the Orioles are willing to trade him for a 19 year old player that is a two or three years away from the majors. Soto, Beltre... something like that. If they are not in contention and it's time to sell at the deadline. All expiring contracts should be traded and those that they can't trade due to no interest... they should be released but I'm really not sure what type of return we can expect from those players even in a sellers market and this should be a sellers market. Would Castro as 2 million dollar rental bring back a prospect outside a 5th ranked organization prospect. I think he might. Would Paddack as a 3 millon dollar rental bring back a prospect outside a 5th ranked organization prospect? I think he might if he remains healthy. Would Bader as a 2 million dollar rental bring back a 10th through 15th ranked organization prospect? Maybe. Coloumbe as a 1 million dollar rental left handed reliever bring back a 20th ranked organization prospect? Maybe but it's not for sure. Topa, France and Vazquez. I don't know how much interest there will be for any of them to get anything interesting back. France has been decent this year... I'm not slamming France... he's had some big hits for us. But he was similarly decent last year and DFA'd for the effort. DFA'd and traded to the Reds for an unranked light hitting catcher. Not only did they only get an unranked light hitting catcher for France... the Mariners sent along CASH in the deal. France had an OPS of .662 at the time of the DFA and deal. He currently has a .679 OPS this year. He didn't get much in return last year and what is different about him this year? To conclude, selling beyond the expiring contracts. Duran, Jax or even bigger like Joe Ryan or Buxton. If we reach that point... I'd rather they wait until the off-season so a different front office can facilitate the deals and then properly develop what should be pretty significant young talent.

I posted the following in another thread. In that thread there was a discussion about picking up the option of Harrison Bader. I'm thinking it needs it's own thread for discussion. Bader doesn't need to be the focus point. This thread should be about the future health of the Twins organization overall. Bader would just be 1/26th or 1/40th of what the Twins need to do this off-season or maybe as soon as this trade deadline. I admit that I did nothing more than back of the napkin type math to come up with my numbers. Those numbers could certainly be corrected, I don't mind at all. The overall question is this: What will 2026 look like? I don't see a 25 million jump in payroll. Here's what I posted in another thread (with some changes) in response to picking up Bader's 10 million dollar mutual option for next year. The breakdown of the players leaving and the possible upcoming raises is the only part that I'm bringing over for the conversation. What can the Twins do? Breaking it down. For 2025 he (Bader) is guaranteed 4.75M with another 2M possible in performance bonus... the bonuses are mostly tied to awards as far as I can tell so let's just leave his number at 4.75 which will be coming off the books. Other contracts coming off the books: Vazquez 10M, Paddack 7.5M, Castro 6.4M, Coulombe 3M, France 1M and Topa 1M (Club Option at 2M). That's about 33.65M coming off the books and 7 roster spots to fill. 8 players are due arbitration raises: Jeffers, Duran, Ober, Ryan, Jax, Larnach, Stewart and Lewis. 2 players will be Arb 1: Sands and Clemens I don't know how much this group will earn exactly in raises through arbitration and therefore how much is taken from the 33.65 million available. According to the information I've found online, the average arbitration raise is 113%. For this exercise let's just make the math easy and say 100% raises for the 8 players moving up the arbitration ladder. Those 8 players are making 19.2 this year collectively through arbitration. 100% raise due for all 8 and they will be making 38.4 collectively in 2026. Add in whatever you think Sands and Clemens will get in their first year. I don't know but let's say 2 million a piece and we are at 42.4 million in raises. This means that payroll is already up 8.75M in 2026 before even considering picking up the 10M option on Bader. Keep in mind that we have 7 roster spots on the 26 man roster to fill with Bader, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Coulombe, France and Topa not signed beyond this season. If the Twins pick up the 10M on Bader... payroll will be up 18.7M with 6 roster spots to fill. If the Twins pick up the club option on Topa... Payroll is up 20.7 million with 5 roster spots to fill. I realize that Clemens may not be offered. I also realize that all 10 players that will be in arbitration this off-season may or may not offered arbitration this off-season and the reason some may not be offered is going to be due to budget more so than performance related decisions. What do y'all see?

Perfectly stated. The simple counting of pre-arb players leaves a lot of factors untouched.

I know you see what I'm talking about. I'm just less optimistic that the ratio will be improving soon. I pray you are right but I'm just not sure. The Twins have had a highly ranked farm system for many years now and not enough to show for it. I believe it's quite possible that IF the ratio improves... it will be because the Twins have no other options. Even... the Margot's of the world become too expensive and Sabato is taking France's place... not because he is ready but because they have to. I don't know if the Twins are failing to develop or are purposely choosing to limit the exposure of young players but either way... it's scares me and it needs to be fixed. I just broke down the outlook for 2026 in an earlier post. It's pretty scary. The bill is coming due. This club needs to turn around this development thing quickly.

While it is true that most mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. I always assume it's because of performance disparity. If the player struggles, the club walks away. If the player plays well, he goes back into the market to get more for his performance. I believe this mutual option is for 10 Million with plate appearance escalators. His reward for good performance is already baked in. Harrison and his agent would have to believe that he could get more than 10 million plus whatever it escalates to... to decline it. Kepler got 1 year at 10 million from the Phillies so... I don't know... Maybe he declines it because a team could offer more but I'm not sure how much more a team is willing to offer because the majority of teams struggle with the same budget demons that the Twins struggle with. In consideration of that current budget stress, which I don't believe will go away this upcoming off-season (even with new owners). You can't discount the possibility that the Twins will decline the option because they may not have 10 million available to pay him. Breaking it down. For 2025 he is guaranteed 4.75M with another 2M possible in performance bonus... the bonuses are mostly tied to awards as far as I can tell so let's just leave his number at 4.75 which will be coming off the books. Other contracts coming off the books: Vazquez 10M, Paddack 7.5M, Castro 6.4M, Coulombe 3M, France 1M and Topa 1M (Club Option at 2M). That's about 33.65 coming off the books and 7 roster spots to fill. 8 players are due arbitration raises: Jeffers, Duran, Ober, Ryan, Jax, Larnach, Stewart and Lewis. 2 players will be Arb 1: Sands and Clemens I don't know how much this group will earn exactly in raises through arbitration and therefore how much is taken from the 33.65 million available. According to the information I've found online, the average arbitration raise is 113%. For this exercise let's just make the math easy and say 100% raises for the 8 players moving up the arbitration. Those 8 players are making 19.2 this year collectively. 100% raise and those 8 players will be making 38.4 collectively. Add in whatever you think Sands and Clemens will get in their first year. I don't know but let's say 2 million a piece and we are at 42.4 million in raises. This means that payroll is already up 8.75M in 2026 before even considering picking up the 10M option on Bader and keep in mind that we have 7 roster spots on the 26 man roster to fill with Bader, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Coulombe, France and Topa not signed beyond this season. If the Twins pick up the 10M on Bader... payroll will be up 18.7M with 6 roster spots to fill. This isn't directed at you... It's directed at everyone who doesn't understand why I stick on these subjects. I'm just piggy backing off your quote. This is why I'm raising the caution flag. This is why I'm counting the pre-arb players on the rosters of other clubs and trying my best to tell everyone that it matters. This is why I'm pretty convinced that we have a development problem, that is financially unsustainable and will lead to an eventual hard crash and high draft pick the following year and probably years to come. This is what I mean when I say that a bill is coming due for the constant parade of low one year contract filler year after year. This is what I mean when strip mining your left handers for parts and handcuffing them with 4 million dollar Margot's is a bill that will come due. This is what I mean when I say that I don't have a problem with Bader as a ball player but I have a problem with needing to sign someone like Bader. This is why I talk about all 13 roster spots being gold and am disappointed every time a roster spot is wasted weather it be Bride, McCusker, Fitzgerald or whoever because the Twins have to start making up the difference between the 18 Pre-Arb players the Tigers, Brewers and Rays are winning with and the 8 pre-arb players that the Twins are treading water with. Bottom Line: Bader has been great... I love watching him play. He single handedly won the game for us yesterday. The Twins could barely afford his his 4 to 6 million this year and I don't see them being able to afford the 10m next year. My prediction is that if the club option is picked up by the Twins. Players that we all know and love will have to be traded to make room. Larnach? Duran? Lopez? They may need to be traded even if we don't sign Bader. If we are moving these type of players... are we starting a rebuild? The rebuild may be necessary regardless because this isn't sustainable. Once you start to lose names like those... Is 10 million for a 32 year old Bader (as decent as he has been this year) worth it? I think that Bader will be allowed to enter free agency where the market will determine his value and we will continue our bargain shopping to fill the available roster spots. Develop or Die.

Once a series... I will post the number of pre-arb players on the 26 man roster from the opposing team. This weekend... the Rays have brought 16 pre-arb players with them to Target field. With Funderburk replacing Ober on the 26 man roster. The Twins now have 11 pre-arb players. The Rays broke camp with 17... The Twins broke camp with 8. The Rays are currently 48-40 on the year. The Twins are currently 42-46. When I say pre-arb... I'm just counting players with less than 3 years service time. For example. Royce Lewis (Super-Two) is counted among the 11 Twins pre-arb players even if he is in his first year of arbitration and makes more than the minimum. He counts because I'm really just down and dirty counting those who started 2025 with less then 3.000 of MLB service time. It would be 10 with Lewis off the pre-arb list. That would run counter to the Twins development lull point I'm trying to make. The Lower the number, the more dramatic my point. Regardless, I'm OK with the inclusion of Lewis since this will be a season long youth point that I am making by comparison to our peers and less than 3 year service time is the line I've chosen to signify youth. I chose that line because nearly all of them (not Royce Lewis) are making the major league minimum. This is important because if they are not making the minimum, they are chipping away at the available budget.

One of the greatest movie lines of all time. Delivered perfectly by Nigel Tufnel.

On this subject. I'm pretty pegged

There is no question that left vs left is the worst statistical matchup in regards to the platoon advantage. It is also true that left vs RHP is historically the best statistical matchup in baseball. It is not necessarily true that RH hitters can comfortably face any handedness. It's a 69 point drop. Here are the all time OPS Numbers: RHB vs RHP - .712 RHB vs LHP - .781 LHB vs RHP - .799 LHB vs LHP - .687 If 72% of pitching is RHP and 28% is LHP and you took those historical numbers X 72 and X 28 appropriately. An all right hand lineup would historically produce .730 OPS against all major league pitching and an all left hand lineup would produce a .767 OPS against all major league pitching. It's better to have an all left handed lineup compared to an all right handed lineup. Now I get it. You can only safely platoon 3 spots taking up 6 roster spots to play the advantage and teams do that. Actually 4 if you have a right handed hitting catcher like Jeffers and you want to get him involved at the DH position in this whole platoon mess. Most teams don't do that... So we will stick with three. On Paper those 6 roster spots/3 lineup spots can historically average out to .793 collectively if fully utilized but that still you leaves you with 6 spots in the order not platooned where the left handed hitter has the advantage over the right handed hitter. So... In a nutshell from a historical standpoint... the perfect platoon system to play the numbers correctly to full advantage. Would consist of 9 left handed hitters and 4 short side right handed hitters if you carry a catching platoon split tandem. 10 LH Hitters and 3 Right Handed hitters if you don't. That of course... is just based on historical averages. It is not based on the individual player... in order to have an average... you have players above that line and players below that line. Just because the historical average of LHB vs LHP is .687 doesn't mean you can't have a player who does better than that if allowed to. Those historical averages also don't account for injuries that blow the whole thing up. If you staff 3 short side platoon players to face only left handed hitters. Injuries will take those limitations away and now you have right handed hitters facing more right handed pitching than left handed pitching. This immediately negates the careful planned platoon advantage strategy. The easiest solution to all of these numbers is this: JUST GET HITTERS WHO CAN HIT! Left/Right it doesn't matter. In the case of a tie... take the left handed hitter over the right handed hitter Or... Or... Just get nothing but switch hitters and you'll never have to think about any of this ever again.

My last post was all the American League teams. I've been intending to get around to the National League teams. So here ya go. Mets - I already covered New York in my last post. I've been to the old Yankee stadium so I will be finally attending a game in the Yankee stadium in August. Citi Field was one of my favorite parks. Not Top Five but up there and the why is kinda weird. Why? The Airplane Traffic overhead. Planes are taking off frequently from La Guardia I assume and flying over head. It was kinda cool to get a good look at the belly of all of those planes not that far overhead. For that reason alone... I give Citi Field high marks in what would normally be just an average stadium. BTW... Don't come with the impression that Queens is a quiet suburb far away from the craziness of Manhattan. It's nearly as people crazy. Queens is nuts. Marlins - The stadium is decent and I rank it in the exact same place as they other stadiums with a retractable roof. The stadium goes in the same pile with Houston, Arizona, Texas and Milwaukee. As for food, Miami has a lot of iconic food due to the culture and none of it is high on my list of favorite stuff. Had the Stone Crab... Expensive little bits of crab meat is what it is. I had the Ceviche... wasn't a fan. I paid 30 bucks for a mojito in South Beach. I didn't know I was going to pay 30 bucks. I just walked in an ordered a Mojito and was told it cost 30 bucks after the bartender made it. It had a sugar cane standing up in the glass so I assume that was why it was about 20 bucks more than I was expecting. I did like my Cuban sandwich and Cuban Espresso in Little Havana. Here's an interesting fact. You can walk from Little Havana to the Stadium. It'll take you through some interesting neighborhoods, lots of windows and people yelling in spanish inside those places from multiple floors. It is exactly a one cigar walk from Little Havana to the stadium. I lit my cigar outside the cigar store... started toward the stadium and was done with it as I arrived. For that alone... I give the city planners credit because I think they did it on purpose. Braves - Been to the old stadium so it counts on my list of all 30 stadiums quest... but yeah... I've got to get to the new stadium. As for food... my sister lives in the Atlanta burbs so she usually feeds me. The one thing I know for sure about the food in the south. The BBQ is great but if you are looking for the best BBQ... look for the worst building you can find. If the building looks like it should be condemned... that's where you want to go. If it's a nice clean building in a strip mall... stay away. Phillies - Hitting this stadium in August. I've been to Philly once before. The two most famous cheesesteak places are Geno's and Pat's King of Steaks and they are right across the street from each other. We had four of us in our group. Two of us got cheese steaks at each location and then we traded halfs so we could all sample each one and two of us voted for Geno's and two of us voted for Pat's. I voted for Pats because the meat in Geno's was cubed. Other than that the difference was slight. Since taking part in this small focus group... I have spoken with actual people from Philly and they all laugh and say... if you want a real Philly cheesesteak... you don't go to either of them. Nationals - I'll be hitting this stadium in August - I've been to Washington a couple of times before. Did the tourist stuff and didnt sample iconic cuisine. In my research it has been suggested that hot dog with chili called the Half Smoke is the iconic DC food. I'll have one when I return. Cubs - I already covered Chicago in my previous post. As much as I loved Fenway... I didn't have the same love for Wrigley. It was under construction when I was there so that took away some charm and my seats had a pole blocking the view. I do plan on swinging through Chicago and giving Wrigley another chance in my upcoming August road trip. I'd like to spend some more time checking out the surrounding area before entering this time. Pirates - Top 5 stadium for sure. I'd say Baltimore and Pittsburgh are interchangeable at the 4 or 5 spot . ranking wise. Food... The Primanti Sandwich is a must. If you don't have a Primanti Bros. when you are there... you blew it. It's the Iconic food of Pittsburgh. It a sandwich built for truck drivers where they basically take an entire plate of food and put it between slices of bread. Meat, Cheese, Cole Slaw, Tomatos and French Fries between two slices of bread. Basically a dinner plate combined together on bread. It tastes just like you think it will. Milwaukee - My favorite stadium from the retractable roof stadiums. Tailgate if you can. They have a nice tailgate area across the interstate. Milwaukee food... Just drink Beer... Eat some cheese. You'll be covered. Cincinnati - This one is on my list for my August road trip. Been through Cincy twice in my life. I always... always and will always in the future have the Cincinnati Chili. I do the 4 way because I don't need the kidney beans. Spaghetti Noodles covered with the chili (Cinnamon or Nutmeg maybe both is the unique flavor from the Chili we all know), Cheese (Lots of it) and Onions. That's the 4 way. If I got the beans which is an option... it would be the 5 way. I do the 4 way. What can I say... I agree with Texas. No beans in my chili please. I know people who don't like it... I think they are all crazy. BTW... I'll be driving from St. Louis to Cincinnati on my road trip and I am purposely swinging south so I can enter Cincy from Kentucky. The Cincinnati skyline is perhaps the most beautiful skyline in the United States. The skyline hits you all of a sudden when it is combined with beautiful bridges as you cross the Ohio river. I did that once... and it dropped my jaw. So I'll be looking at Kentucky on my way to Cincy from St. Louis. St. Louis - This one is on my list for the road trip. First stadium I will be hitting on the trip. Haven't really spent any time in St. Louis so I'm looking forward to it. Research is telling me that I need to have St. Louis Ribs, Toasted Ravioli and Gooey Butter Cake. Dodgers - Already covered L.A in my earlier post. Dodger Stadium would rank higher on my list if it wasn't for the traffic. It was really helpful that Glunn was with because he knew exactly how to get there efficiently. I went to a game with Glunn and I went to one by myself. The Game I went by myself... I left Beverly Hills about an hour and a half before game time and ended up missing the first three innings. Could have had a Freddie Freeman bobblehead. BTW... When you are in a traffic standstill in some side street leading to the stadium... You are uphill and your car won't like it. D-Backs - The Stadium ranks with the other retractable roof stadiums. I've come to the conclusion that I'm not the desert sort of person. It's a hot desert. I live in North Dakota... I lost 200 pounds walking around. Food: Mexican Food Rockies - I really liked my experience in Denver. The stadium is a good experience. They probably have more interesting food choices than any other stadium. I had the Elvis Shake. Banana Ice Cream, Peanut Butter, Bacon and Cracker Jacks. Can't say it was wonderful but it wasn't awful. If you see it has a stadium food option. You gotta go for it. As Elvis says... Thank You... Thank you very much. BTW... Blue Moon beer was invented at Coors Field. Let me repeat that... Blue Moon was invented at Coors. The Sandlot Brewery in the Right Field corner. Giants - This used to be my favorite stadium of all the stadiums - The site lines are amazing... If you sit in RF... You can actually tell if the pitch was a curve ball. Normally when you sit in outfield seats... you can see a pitch thrown and that's about it. In San Francisco... you can see what kind of pitch was thrown. I don't know why... but you can. Perhaps I shouldn't have been sleeping in architecture school in college. I've covered the food in my earlier post. I'll just say... San Francisco is busy. It's the only city that I've visited that compares with New York as far as traffic. People everywhere. The Hills are relentless... Big Ups... Big Downs but it creates a stunning city. Padres - This is now my favorite stadium of all the stadiums... I would have bet against any stadium being better than San Francisco... I was wrong. Petco is the best. The Weather is amazing, the Gas Lamp District surrounding the stadium is incredible and the stadium itself is just plain beautiful with unique architectural touches. That's all of them.

The dead money slots show no dollars attached. So his 17 million would have to be tacked on?

Back to some Good Ole' Roster Utilization. With the return of Royce Lewis... today is game three of an almost entirely healthy offense. The first two days of that health as yielded two runs. We will see what day three of health brings. First off the obvious: Keirsay has been up with the club since June 15 for a total of 16 games and has made one start. His utilization is clear. Defense and Baserunning late game replacement. The Catchers continue to rotate. Every other day with Vazquez getting a couple of back to backs when Jeffers gets a DH opportunity against left handers. As for the other 10 and the 8 other roster spots to fill. Kody Clemons is possibly the short straw. He's not in the lineup today and will have sat two out of the three games for this almost entirely healthy offense. Bader, France, Lewis and Correa will have sat one game... so it appears like a rotation is starting to take place. Rotation rest is what should be done when you have mulitple players that can perform. Buxton, Castro and Lee have not taken a seat yet three games into this almost entirely healthy offense. Larnach and Wallner also haven't taken a seat in this almost entirely healthy offense but I imagine their time will come on Tuesday when Imanaga takes the mound and again next Saturday against Heaney. BTW... I say almost entirely healthy offense because Keaschall is still on that IL. Keashall didn't break camp with the club so I'm not sure he counts when it comes to those the front office was counting on when they built this thing. I'm under the impression that this roster right now minus Julien and Miranda is what they intended. So I raise a glass to toast health. We are healthy. Let's see how the front office did.

Did you trade Pablo? If so... what did we get back?

You are right. When you factor that in. My perfect sense comment isn't as perfect. 😄

You are right. When you factor that in. My makes perfect sense comment isn't as perfect.

The reality is: It's too soon to be making these decisions but it can be fun and disapointing to what if. OK... What if. There are two types of selling and all the space in between. A. The simple moving of expiring contracts. B. The full tear down followed by full rebuild. Option A - Should happen fully and completely if the team is clearly not in contention. Even if you get nothing in return for these players... they need to be cleared off the roster so 2026 options are in the lineup instead. No hanging on to a Logan Forsythe for the hell of it. Option B - I'd listen to offers because some nice deals could be available in what could be a sellers market but I'd rather they wait for the off-season with a new front office in place to facilitate the moves. Larnach or Wallner - I am 100 percent against any reasoning of moving Larnach or Wallner because they are both left handed. This type of thinking has to stop. This team just needs to search for bats period regardless of what batters box they stand in. 75% of pitching is Right Handed. Why do we continually feel the need to suppress our left handed hitting pool and search for more average at best right handed hitters? I don't understand it and never will. The Tigers are doing just fine with a lot of left handers in the lineup. Matt Wallner will still make the minimum next year. Matt Wallner type players are exactly who the Twins should be trying to acquire if they are selling. Young players making the minimum with years of control with potential. Trevor Larnach? He will be in year two of Arb... probably cost 4 5 or 6 million. I'm a big Larnach fan but you could justify trading him but... I need to ask loud and clear. What has the Twins organization done to his trade value? They certainly haven't maximized his trade value by keeping him from left handed hitters. Everyone please understand that there is a future bill to pay for what they have done to our young left handed hitters. The bill that is coming due is a lowered trade value and therefore lower return when you find yourself in the situation of needing to sell. And it's important to point out that needing to sell will partially demonstrate that strip mining your talent for parts DIDN'T WORK because if it worked... you wouldn't need to sell. Royce Lewis: Good God Absolutely not... not at this time at least... Absolutely not. I'm just as frustrated with Royce as anyone else. The constant injuries and a year long slump has been hard to endure and that is exactly why you don't trade him now because the constant injuries and year long slump will have lowered his trade value to about as low as it can get. If we are selling... Royce Lewis plays through his issues and we continue to hope that he restores his trade value. Trading him at an absolutely low point would be irresponsible. Duran and Jax: Makes perfect sense. Both players will be expiring contracts in 2026. No idea what they will make in their third year of arbitration but they might be a combined 15 million out of the budget. I'd love to keep them but money is an issue this year and it's going to be an issue next year. Both are talented enough to return some decent talent from a contending team. Many will argue this but you can always make another closer or set up guy.

Yeah... Like the Tigers did to the Nats yesterday! Not like what the Nats did to the Tigers yesterday.

The Milwaukee Brewers had 17 different players make starts for them in 2024. Two or three of those were openers so let's say 14. The Brewers have already utilized 14 different players to make starts for them in 2025. I think one was an opener so let's ay 13. The Minnesota Twins had 8 different players make starts for them in 2024. The Minnesota Twins have already utilized 7 different players to make starts for them in 2024. Interesting Fact: The exact same pitchers for the Twins by the way. Only Louie Varland hasn't made a start for them this year because he's in the bullpen. Anyway... Pitching injuries are nothing new. It is up to the front office to be ready for this sort of thing. We will see if they are. I have my popcorn and I'm ready to watch how it plays out.

7 Innings pitched - One Hit - One Walk - 13 Strikeouts. Skubal might be the best in baseball but his ERA is 2.15. Zero Runs in 7 innings is better that 2 over 9 innings that he averages. 11.4 K/9 on the season and he had 13 K/7 against the Twins. That's better than what he averages. .835 WHIP is incredible... that's rounds out to an average of 6 base runners per 7 innings. We managed 2. So that's better than what he averages and what he averages is already incredible. Skubal may be the best in baseball but what I saw that night was that he was facing a team that was beaten before they walked into the box. He entered the game with a 2.29 ERA and LOWERED IT with our help. With all that said. It's one game, we might put 5 runs on him next time we face him. Baseball is a funny game. That game doesn't make me feel any different. My opinion hasn't changed. It's been constant. The Twins offense isn't good. It's below average in total, low on-base, station to station baseball. That's not a one game determination... it's not a reaction to Skubal. That's a season long determination.

I won't argue any of that. How much salt and pepper you use is your preference but if you find yourself fearful of playing any of your 13 options. I'd ask that you step back and reassess the salt and pepper. 😉

A new series has started. I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that Marlins had a roster comprised of 22 Pre-Arb Players or more accurately less than 3 years experience. The Twins had 10 players with less than 3 years experience. The Marlins are 38-45 on the year. The Marlins are currently on an 8 game winning streak. In the their previous 5 series matchups, they have swept 3 of them. (Nats, Giants and D-Backs). Going 14-4 over their past 18. The Twins are 40-45 on the year. They have been the complete opposite going 4-14 over their past 18. I will continue to point out the pre-arb numbers of our opponents every series because it's important. I'm not doing this to be a prick but to point out to those not watching the other teams that youth is not the problem with other clubs. Other teams are doing decently with rosters that are comprised of young players. Inexperience doesn't mean wins but it doesn't necessarily mean losses either. Most importantly, I'm doing this to point out that the Twins are not comparing well to their peers in this regard and are spending more money collectively on this problem... leaving less to spend elsewhere. Have a nice day everyone. Go Twins. Beat this Junk Guy Tonight.

Another way to look at it. A manager or any of us mere mortals on Twinsdaily shouldn't be so afraid of giving up 4 AB's of playing time out of 6,000 AB's during a season because of the POTENTIAL result of one ninth of a lineup in one game out of 162. Being so afraid of those 4 AB's out of 6,000 on a given day that you are willing to sacrifice 1 roster spot out of 13 and just bench that spot is backwards. That 1 roster spot out of 13 is the most "finite" of all numbers and those 13 roster spots should be what every front office and game manager should focus on. You have 13 roster spots at any given time to improve your team with. Willingness to sacrifice that roster spot leads to thinking that we can't do better than Ty France or we might lose this game. It makes Ty France a lynch pin to survival. Willingness to sacrifice that roster spot makes average to below average unreplaceable. it kills discovery. it creates a chain of never ending low budget filler to fill the holes year after year. It can at least partially explain how after years of this type of roster utilization you end up on the low end of pre-arb players. It's why the math you are doing is important. It literally changes perspective. It can take you comfortably away from all or nothing every day starting 9 type decisions in a game where all or nothing starting 9 doesn't exist over the course of 162 games.

You are right... It is much harder than the (for example only) template I posted above. It gets real complicated when you start thinking: Janson Junk starting... fastball/slider guy, flyball pitcher, generates a high chase rate and he doesn't walk anyone. It's hard to work off a template when you are making decisions on matchups. That's an opponent consideration and each individual decision of this nature leads to slight/tiny statistical advantages. On the other side of that coin. You list valid Twins considerations that make it hard to work off a template... yet... at the same time your valid considerations also illustrate why all of this is necessary. Why do I say that? Because those considerations you have, show the individual imperfections, those imperfections show that they don't need to be in the lineup every day. You are not comfortable with Larnach and Wallner on the corners together. That's a valid concern and that concern or imperfection separates them from Buxton who really should be in the lineup every day. So you have established through your defensive concerns that Larnach and Wallner can yield a day of playing time. If I start talking myself into... Correa has to play everyday with a .681 OPS... that's when I run into problems finding work for players who might produce .690. What really uncomplicates it. Keirsay and Bride on the roster does a real nice job uncomplicating it. Two guys that Rocco won't play. Those two would both start 0 out of 6 this week. From my template, take out the 5 games I gave Keaschall and the 4 games that I gave Lewis. Give none of them to Bride and Keirsay and spread those 9 starts over to the rest. Oh Look... France is playing every day. France has been OK... but FRANCE PLAYING EVERY DAY like he's Byron Buxton is a problem and there is no competition to push him for playing time. You know what else uncomplicates it. Simply sitting your left handed hitters when lefties are on the mound and simply sitting your right handed hitters when a righty is on the mound. That's auto-pilot. Anyway... I'm grateful you are visiting this island. It's been lonely for me.

I love that you are looking at it and doing the math and trying to figure it out. That's why... even if we disagree... I will always listen to what you are saying because I know you look at every angle. For example purposes. Let's make it harder by taking the specialist Keirsay out of the mix and let's pretend Keaschall is healthy for 13 player spots Here is a 13 player utilization for this upcoming week against all right handed starters. With the catchers a separate consideration (I agree Jeffers for 4 and Vazquez for 2). You have 8 spots to fill for 6 games... that's 48 spots for 11 players. You could play one player everyday - Sit 5 players once, 2 players twice and 3 players thrice and that will account for all 48 non catcher lineup spots, all 11 players for 6 games. Nobody gets splinters and you can move these things around based on performance as it shifts throughout the season. To be clear - I don't recommend this exactly... it's for example purposes only... I'd like the manager to base lineups on data such as "hits sinkers well" to make daily decisions. This is just an exercise to show how the entire roster could be utilized with all 13 players and I don't think the team would take a tremendous hit on any of the days. Based on performance - I'd do this: All 6 games 1 player - Buxton (Make Hay while that sun is shining) 5 Games 5 players - Correa, Lee, Larnach, Keaschall and Wallner 5 games. Correa for defense, Lee because he's picking it up at the moment, Larnach and Wallner because of the left handed pop and Keaschall because he was looking great before he was hurt. 4 Games 2 players - Castro and Lewis (I could be convinced to make Castro 5 games and Lewis 3 games based on Castro playing well but Lewis was starting to hit before he got hurt. 3 Games 3 players- Clemons, Bader and France Day One: CF - Buxton LF - Larnach DH - Keaschall C - Jeffers RF - Wallner SS - Correa 1B - France 2B - Lee 3B - Lewis Bader Clemons Castro Vazquez Day Two: CF - Buxton DH - Larnach 2B - Keaschall 3B - Castro C - Jeffers RF - Wallner SS - Correa LF - Bader 1B - Clemons Lee France Lewis Vazquez Day Three: CF - Buxton LF - Castro 2B - Keaschall SS - Correa RF - Wallner 1B - France DH - Lewis 3B - Lee C -Vazquez Larnach Clemons Bader Jeffers Day Four: CF - Buxton RF - Larnach C - Jeffers SS - Correa DH - Wallner LF - Bader 2B - Lee 3B -Lewis 1B - Clemons Keaschall France Castro Vazquez Day Five: CF - Buxton RF - Larnach DH - Keashcall C - Jeffers LF - Castro SS - Correa 1B - France 2B - Lee 3B - Lewis Wallner Clemons Bader Vazquez Day Six: CF - Buxton DH - Larnach 2B - Keaschall RF - Wallner 3B - Castro LF - Bader SS - Lee C - Vazquez 1B - Clemons France Lewis Correa Jeffers Again... Just for example purposes but I don't see any places where the lineup is compromised any of the days. Others I'm sure will disagree.

26 man roster spots are gold and should be treated as such. It would be different if the Twins were the 2023 Braves with 8 players staying healthy enough for over 500 PA's with .741 OPS (Arcia) being the lowest of the group. It's gets more normal when they become the 2024 Braves with only 3 reaching 500 AB's including a player with a .625 (Arcia) OPS. We don't have that kind of lineup. No team really does. Especially the Twins since we only had two players reach 500 PA's (Castro and Santana) last year and one Player (Correa) in 2023. I'm not posting these numbers to advocate the need for more 500 plus PA players. I'm posting these numbers to point out that injuries and struggling players make it hard to field a team of 500 plus PA players and if you can't... Spots 12 and 13 on your roster end up being more important than what spots titled #12 and #13 would suggest they are. And if you can't field a team of 500 plus PA players with 8 rock stars. The specialists have to be more than simple specialists. It's why I struggle with the term bench.