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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    These over pays ain't happening any more.
  2. Riverbrian
    This is what selling looks like. My feathers are unruffled. I'm more pissed about the actual need for selling. Sellers sell... This is what it looks like. If the Twins were buyers... they were not going to give up Jenkins. I'm not shocked that the Phillies hung on to Painter with both fists and I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners hung on to Ford and the Dodgers hang on to Rushing. This is what selling looks like. Now... What's next. To win this trade... we will find out later but the Twins have to be the ones who win it. Trades are not won or lost when the deal is made. Trades are won or lost after the trade. If the Twins want to win this trade. Prove you all wrong. They need to develop the players they chose to acquire. Let's see if they can develop when it hasn't been a strong suit.
  3. Riverbrian
    Who knows... But I can't imagine the possibility... not even remotely consider the possibility that the Twins would spend the millions over the 5 years of the deal and then allow remaining 1.5m or whatever result in compromising the trade value of your acquisition for the future when they are so close to the finish line on the contract. I mean who knows... but that would be extending the original contract mistake into the future. Instead of being done with the mistake in one month... you have now extended the penalty of the original contract by taking a lesser prospect in return. I can't see that. I truly can't... that would be another level of incompetence. I have to imagine that the Twins talked to multiple teams and the Tigers offered the best deal. Doesn't matter what the prospect rankings say, doesn't matter what the ratings that are passed out for public consumption. The scouts, the analytics team, the evaluators like this 19 year old kid better than other players offered. I believe they chose this kid out of the other players offered from the Tigers and other teams... if there were other teams? I don't believe the kid was forced upon them so they could shed Dobnak's remaining whatever it is. I think it is more likely that they decided to go with Detroit and said Oh BTW... I'll go with this deal if you take Dobnak. Detroit probably said sure fine... let's just get it done so we can move on to addressing other team needs before Thursday arrives. But again... Who knows... I wasn't in the room either.
  4. Riverbrian
    Nearly everyone is touching 98 with their fastballs these days. They are watching pitch counts in order to prevent injuries and injuries are more frequent these days. Not sure if the human arm is supposed to do that sort of thing. I'm all for Joe Ryan getting 288 Innings and I'm all for Duran getting 150 innings. I'd like to see Paddack... Guys with the 4.98 ERA get 80 innings instead of simply eating as many as they can and calling it value. In my mind... the answer lies outside of the current constraints. That's the redesign I'd like to see. If that means going back to Gene Mauch and his usage of Goltz and Campbell. OK... I'm open to it.
  5. Riverbrian
    And we need an update from that update. Yes, Grandpa did manage it... yes he did and so is the current generation. Weather it is still high functioning is open to debate. Watching pitch counts and it can't be denied that they all do it today... for whatever reason... weather it helps prevent injury or a reaction to the third time through the order stats... all teams are watching pitch counts and that has caused an increase in bullpen usage. You and I are in complete agreement that you can't hide pitchers in the bullpen because of the increased bullpen usage. Does it all still fit in that box of how Grandpa managed it and which Grandpa are we talking about. Grandpa or Great Grandpa? Dave Goltz threw 249 innings in 1976 and he ranked 25th in baseball. Bill Campbell led the team in saves that year with 20 and he threw 167 innings total. Randy Jones led baseball with 315 innings that year. Rawley Eastwick was the save leader with 26 and he cranked out 108 innings. In 1987... Bert Blyleven threw 267 innings in 1987 that was 4th best in baseball... knuckleballer Charlie Hough was the leader with 285 IP. Viola threw 251 innings. Reardon had 31 saves in 80 innings of work. Steve Bedrosian led baseball with 40 saves and 89 innings. Fast Forward to 2024... Logan Gilbert led baseball with 208 innings in 2024. Only 4 pitchers eclipsed the 200 mark. Ryan Helsley led the league in saves with 49 and he threw 66 innings. Somewhere in the universe there is a way to get more innings to your best arms and less innings to your worst arms but you are not going to find that way with a 5 starter rotation where a 4.98 ERA starter gets over 150 innings and and lights out closer or set up guy gets 60. I'm not sure that the currently model will be alive and well in 2045 so we might as well start working on the new thing. The current data and utilization is creeping out of it's boundaries.
  6. Riverbrian
    How indeed! The landscape is shifting and spilling outside of the boxes designed by Grandpa back in the 80's. The math in your post will go right past a lot of people but It will lead to a better understanding of what it takes to not only get through a game but to get through a season. 1440 innings to be covered during a season. How do you cover them? A redesign is long overdue. Somewhere in the universe there is a way to increase the innings thrown by Duran while lessening the innings thrown by Paddack. That type of adjustment is hard to do under the constraints of starters throw 5 and relievers throw 1 in the face of shrinking pitch counts. Change is necessary... gotta find the fit... the next new thing... the solution to the problem. You gotta bust through the constraints set decades ago. The cavalry was a military game changer at the time. You can let the horses run all over you or you can start sharpening really long sticks and adjust. The 5 man rotation, 1 inning at a time reliever model is in need of an update.
  7. Riverbrian
    I have no expectations. I happy for him and hope his dreams come true. I love major league debuts.
  8. Riverbrian
    This paragraph just reminded me of something that I'd like to revisit because I think it's important. I'm typically not a fan of bunting because in my opinion... the OUT itself is the most important stat in baseball. However... as you very sensibly say... there are times when the ability to bunt is important. Last year... the Twins like always rarely laid down a bunt. That's OK... that stats strongly suggest that they shouldn't lay down a bunt... However... In September when things were falling apart and Wins were critical for survival... We all of a sudden turned to the bunt to try scrape something together.... we spent all season ignoring it and all of sudden... Hey... Need it now. Basically... I think this is important because if you are going to need a bunt to win a game in September or bunt to win a game in the playoffs... If bunts are going to suddenly become a club in the bag. I think you should probably bunt to try win a game in April, May, June, July and August.
  9. Riverbrian
    Yep The Tigers and the pre-arb army. Which BTW... those Tigers may be down in numbers after the deadline acquisitions to come. While the Twins may be up significantly after the deadline.
  10. Riverbrian
    While I agree that a retooling is necessary... It's also hard to endorse a retooling when we are just pouring more players that need development into a machine that is not developing a sufficient number of players. The retooling needs to be done on the machine itself.
  11. Riverbrian
    I'm not saying anything definitive but I think it's at least interesting to say. Here goes: Last night... The Twins maneuvered themselves into a situation where they were down a run with Keirsey, Gasper and Lee in the 1,2 and 4 spots in the order. Keirsay getting a rare start, Gasper pinch hitting for Larnach in the 7th and Lee pinch hitting for Clemens in the 7th. It's interesting because I'm pretty sure that those three would have been the last 3 that Rocco would want up to the plate in that situation. The bench was drained with Buxton the only player available and he wasn't available. Yet... With a lot of help from the Veteren Pitcher Hicks. It somehow worked out. Again... I'm not saying that this is the way to go. It's just interesting and how baseball has it's own way of doing things game to game. Vets can blow it and youth can come through.
  12. Riverbrian
    The Twins are not young. They are top ten oldest. 8th in the league. They are the 2nd lowest paid (team payroll) of the top ten oldest squads. Only the Pirates are in the top ten in age with a lower payroll. The Mariners would be the other team similar age structure and similar payroll in the top ten. The other squads that comprise top ten are payroll big boys: Dodgers, Phillies, Padres, Rangers, Mets, Astros, Giants. And if you keep going. The Cubs, Braves and Yankees are the next 3 on the list. I apologize for this post but I am personally spending a lot of time trying to point out the hole that they have dug in comparison with their peers. The number of pre-arb players in comparison (players making the minimum) with the other 29 teams. The effect on payroll (The limited money left over to fill the holes not being filled by younger players) and to also show that youth doesn't necessarily mean wins or mean losses as a result when you look at the youth numbers and the Win Loss records. Ultimately, what I'm trying to show is that the Twins have fallen behind in development.
  13. Riverbrian
    The Boston Red Sox arrived in Minnesota with 14 players with less than 3 years service time. 14 Players comprised of 6 out of the typically starting 9 players and 9 of 13 offensive players pre-arb. 2 out of the 5 in the rotation. The Twins countered with 11 players with less than 3 years service time with Gasper replacing Jeffers for the birth of his child. After the the comeback win from the Twins last night. The Red Sox are 57-51 on the year. The Twins are 51-55.
  14. Riverbrian
    Trades are typically equal value when made. All front offices have similar metrics to compare and contrast. I believe that if they make a deal... it's going to a be a similar deal that any of the 29 other front offices would make. So I'm OK with them making deals. Where my trust is shaken is the necessary development of the players acquired. There will be an influx of young talent that need to get MLB ready. I don't think we can expect an influx of MLB ready players acquired in the deals we are about to make this week. Once again we are at the crux of the problem. Development. I don't think pouring more prospects into a filter that not much is coming out of solves much in the end. Handing more oranges to a struggling juggler isn't going to solve the juggling issue. Just more oranges bruised on the floor.
  15. Riverbrian
    The Washington Nationals came to Target Field with 17 Pre-Arb players. The Twins are up to 12 with the addition of Gasper. The Nats are 42-62. The Twins are 50-54.
  16. Riverbrian
    Acquiring prospects and trading prospects at the deadline. Interesting... So... trading a prospect or three from a SHRINKING 40 man roster to a team with a GROWING 40 man roster. Are the Yankees going to take Julien as a sweetener in a Castro deal, therefore adding two players to the 40 man roster causing two to be Jettisoned so they can add Castro and Julien? Maybe we can just scoop up the players the Yankees jettison if only we could get the Yankees to cooperate. Do the Phillies or Mariners see Julien as a deadline savior that they will commit a 40 man spot and give up a lottery ticket? Will a struggling team like the Rockies want to add Julien to the 40 man and give him a whirl... they might... are they going to give up a prospect for him or Miranda when the Rockies also need prospects? Or are we trying to get McMahon from the Rockies so we can trade his expiring contract to the Yankees. This is a November trade discussion when they pull the pile of options together and figure out who gets a 40 man spot out of the 44 they are considering. We don't like these guys so we should trade them because other teams love them discussions makes me scratch my head.
  17. Riverbrian
    Agreed
  18. Riverbrian
    In regards to the decision to walk Ohtani. I get it and if I'm honest... I probably would have done the same thing with the combination of Ohtani at the plate and Ruiz on deck. However, if you really want to get the math out... The Math probably won't check out in regards to this decision. With one out needed to conclude the game and a runner on first base. Ohtani has a .377 OBP. That alone suggests a .62% chance of getting Ohtani out regardless of his talent. Unless there is a stolen base from Betts. Ohtani would require an extra base hit to score Betts in that situation and tie the game. He has 56 extra base hits on the year in 465 plate appearances. According to those numbers there is a 12% chance of that happening. In regards to Ruiz... He's a small sample size this year with 17 Plate Appearences with an on base percentage of .294. It doesn't mean much with such a small sample but assuming he's a legit .294 OBP guy. He is a 71% chance of making an out and not extending the game. 62% chance compared to a 71% is pretty large difference in the game of baseball... however... in one individual AB it really isn't much at all. The next thing to look at is what changes with run expectancy. Two outs with a runner on 1st and 2nd after the Ohtani walk is a 34% run expectancy. Two out with a runner on 1st is a 21% run expectancy. I could really use some sabermetric guy to really check the math and break it down better but on the back of this napkin... it sure does appear that the benefit of facing Ruiz compared to Ohtani is negated by placing the tying run in scoring position and putting the winning run on the base paths. With all that said... It's Ohtani and Ruiz... I probably would have walked Ohtani as well just because the choice is Ohtani or Ruiz so I don't fault Rocco for possibly over reacting to someone who might be the best player in baseball right now.
  19. Riverbrian
    Yet interesting that we lost two out of three to perhaps the worst team in the game and followed that with being an umpire call from winning two out of three from perhaps the best team in baseball. That's baseball... the margins are thin.
  20. Riverbrian
    It's the people who hire the people. Job isn't getting done? Who can do something about it? It's the people who hire the people.
  21. Riverbrian
    I do wonder if Ohtani is intentionally walked with Duran on the mound. That "doesn't matter who is at the plate" closer mentality is alive and well in today's game. Has Jax not earned this bulldog badge? With that said... Walking Ohtani is justifiable because it's Ohtani and it's Ruiz on deck. However... it's only justifiable because Ruiz was on deck. Once Jax walked Ruiz on incredibly non-competitive pitches. Any potential benefit of the Ohtani walk was immediately negated and flipped to a huge mistake because Freeman was in the hole following Ruiz. i watched Jax throw to Ruiz like he was Ohtani. Watching that AB... I'm talking back to the television after every pitch. "What are you doing Griffin? What are you doing?". Obviously... he couldn't hear me.
  22. Riverbrian
    You consistently fail to understand my points. And you do so belligerently. Place me on block and stay clear. Asking me Who... Is another example of your failure to understand. Who? Exactly!!! That's my point. How can an organization with budget issues fail to produce sufficient numbers in comparison with their peers. Who? Exactly!!! You want me to name a player so you can tear them to pieces. I'm sorry I don't trust my opinion on Who? And I certainly don't trust yours. I don't even trust the front office to identify the player or players because here we are talking about Brooks Lee needing to be fixed while Brooks Lee is the only player they are investing playing time in, we are about to sell at the deadline and our budget is maxed out so we can't afford to sign players developed by other organizations. I just know that other teams are producing WHO'S. Therefore WHO IS MY POINT!!! You just keep tearing apart the individuals. You want to keep hammering on Larnach... Keep hammering... Your opinion has no interest to me. My point isn't about Larnach specifically... It's about Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, Julien and now Clemens over the past 3 years. It's about every left handed hitter to come through these doors in the past 3 years. Why can't we develop a left handed hitter that doesn't require a right handed hitting handcuff? Other teams can do this sort of thing... we can't. That's my point... It's not about Larnach but you want to hammer on Larnach. I have no interest. Jonah Bride... I could give a whatever about Jonah Bride... But I didn't give him a roster spot. When I talk about Jonah Bride burning a roster spot... I'm not pro Jonah Bride... I'm talking about the roster spot on a team that is failing to produce WHO's. Bride gets a roster spot because we have failed for multiple years now to develop a WHO!!! Why isn't there a WHO? Go ahead and continue to lose your mind over Martin. I could care less what your opinion of Martin is... I don't care what my opinion of Martin is. If Martin is not the guy... OK... Fine... THEN WHO IS THE GUY!!! According to this article... Brooks Lee may not be the guy either. Which I find interesting because the Twins have clearly chosen Lee as someone to trust. If Brooks Lee doesn't work out... well there goes almost our entire development effort for the past 3 years down the drain. But... Hey Let's pull that plug at the first sign of trouble. Now please... put me on block.
  23. Riverbrian
    And the end result of that is a severe lack of developed players that has built up over years of not making them a priority in a playoff race.
  24. Riverbrian
    I find it interesting that the Twins will hand select one or two prospects and are willing to ride the ups and downs with them... but others not so much. All offensive development eggs are in a basket labeled Brooks Lee. Very few others are allowed a basket. If Brooks Lee fails... That's it... you put everything you had into Brooks Lee. I guess Luke Keaschall will have to save the day so you can claim you produced one player over the past few years. WIth that said... he struggling right now. Players struggle from time to time. I'm not worried about it. Keep playing him... it doesn't have to be every day playing time... but keep playing him... develop him... my god please... develop something.
  25. Riverbrian
    There are plenty of folks on this website who think the loss of Rooker was justified. The 40 man pressure that you are talking about and the 26 man rules and regulation certainly played a role in that loss. It played a role with the Royals and the Padres as well.
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