Riverbrian

See... I was standing next to you the whole time. You didn't lose me. You were just looking the other direction momentarily. That's the question... Where is the replacement? 1B of all positions? This is where the hitters that you draft settle in as they move down the defensive spectrum. Other clubs are finding them... that's why Ty France was only getting minor league offers and took our non-gaurentee near major league minimum offer. We can talk about who is on the farm... but the discussion is bigger than that. Who was on the farm a year ago, the year before that and the year before that. What young player could we have traded for and developed into something. What veteren player could we have traded for for that matter. The A's have 22 year old Kurtz who just replaced 23 year old Soderstrom, the Orioles brought Mountcastle through the system, Casas is 25 hurt but 25, Vaughn is 27 and came through the White Sox system, lumpy arrival but through the system, with hope for future even if it didn't happen the way Keith Law thought it would. Cleveland may have taken the money they saved on pre-arb players on Santana but Manzardo is a big bopper age 24, Torkelson really struggled but he seems to have arrived at age 25 and they had plans for 23 year old Keith if Torkelson was still struggling. Pasquatch is 27 in Kansas City with the next big thing 22 years old in Omaha. There is a 23 year old with the Angels, Even the Yankees found room for a 27 year old Ben Rice. Diaz and Aranda came to the Rays cheaply and fairly young and worked out. Toronto of course has brought Vlad Jr along and still produced Horwitz in addition who is now playing 1B in Pittsburgh at age 27. The Cubs have a young kid from Minnesota age 27 in Michael Busch that they picked from the Dodgers in a deal. The Reds have two young options that came from us that we traded away to fill a hole in the pitching staff. Toglia is 27 years old in Colorado, The Marlins went got 27 year old Mervis, The Padres have Arraez and we know his story... but still only 28 years old and before that it was Cronenworth who the Padres produced from their farm system. To be fair... on the other side of the coin... Houston had a development hole at 1B but they spent real money on Walker to fill it. Seattle has just plain failed at the position and even with that noticeable failure, they DFA'd our guy and they are giving Rowdy Tellez a spin currently. The Rangers have Burger that they had to bring in but Burger had other offers. The D-Backs had a hole but they filled it with Josh Naylor via Trade. The Braves traded for a young Matt Olson which was necessary after the big bopper they developed took the big contract with the Dodgers. The Brewers paid real money to bring in Hoskins, it's ok they can afford it because the rest of the team is nearly all players making the minimum. The Mets developed Alonso. The Twins gave away Lamonte Wade to the Giants. The Cardinals are alot like the Mariners and the Twins but they had Goldy holding fort for many years. They solved by moving the catcher they paid alot of money for to the position and the Nats went got Lowe. The Dodgers and the Phillies... well forget about them but they both obviously addressed the position with superstars. The Phillies filled the 1B hole by moving Harper from the OF which showed a certain creativity. I just went through every major league team and you can see why Ty France had to sign for next to nothing. And here he is in Minnesota... playing OK... I'm not trying to tear Ty apart. I'm tearing the need for Ty apart. In my opinion, there is only one team in baseball that compares to the Twins in this regard at the 1B position and that is the Mariners who are rolling with Tallez at 1.5 million. And it was the Mariners who DFA'd our guy so to be honest... we are basically a step below them because we got the guy who isn't as highly thought of as Tallez. I totally get what you are saying and what you are saying is basically what I'm saying. You are saying that France is necessary because we don't have other options. I agree... I'm just adding the question... Why are their not other options. And I'm adding to that and this is probably the most important point of all. France, Santana, Solano, Miranda, Sano, Cron, Morrison and the train just keeps a rolling. Meanwhile, I keep hearing about this highly ranked farm system. Wave after Wave crashing on the beach. Kirilloff, Blankenhorn, Diaz, Rooker, Wade Jr, Severino, Miranda, Raley, Sabato. Steer, Strand. I get that we may have needed France... it's the fact that we needed France that's the problem. It's the fact that he has to be in the lineup or our chances to win plummet. Anyway... I don't want to hate on France. I wish him well, I'm cheering really hard for him but we are talking about a performance thus far that is almost exactly the performance that got him DFA'd.

I didn't mean to lose you. I will stand over here and waive my arms until you find me. 😎 France is our everyday 1B. Making France your everyday 1B is not how you get there. He's been fine we have both certainly seen worse but to better put this in perspective. He was signed for one million (Non-Guaranteed) and almost immediately declared every day by Rocco. You can only sign a vet for one million dollars which is barely above the minimum because the other 29 teams were not willing to pay him two million dollars. Minor league deals were mostly likely the only thing on his table. This is the guy who is our everyday 1B. I don't want to get wrapped up in the money part alone so let's just look at his current OPS. Now there is plenty of season to go. That OPS could go up or it could go down and I won't try to predict the direction but it currently sits at .672 for 2025. 2024: Last year it was .670 for the year. It was .662 with Seattle (300 AB's) which led to his getting DFA'd at the deadline. DFA'd from one of the worst offensive teams in the majors last year. The Reds took a shot... picked him up cheap and he finished with a .683 for the Reds (179 AB's). 2023: His OPS was .703 (587 AB's). His numbers right now are no different than what caused Seattle to DFA him. No different than the numbers he produced that led to getting nothing but minor league deals and led him signing a one million dollar (non-guaranteed) contract as a 30 year old. The fact that he looks good to some of us can only speak to how easy it is to look good comparatively in Minnesota when he looks good producing the same numbers. Bottom line: He has become irreplaceable apparently in Minnesota. In the lineup every day or we hurt our chances of winning and he has reached this lofty territory producing the same numbers that got him cut. If that's the case... we have settled for a below average place holder at a premium hitting position and in the process we have made it harder to get to a strong lineup card 1 through 9 because we have settled and made him irreplaceable. Strong from top to bottom is already very hard to do... we certainly don't need to make it harder but apparently nobody else is currently being interviewed for the job. There will be no interview for McCusker or anybody to see if he can OPS .710 or higher. France simply can't be replaced or it hurts our chances of winning is a problem. If you are going to play everyday and keep others from competition. You better hit like an everyday player or you have set your bar too low.

It's a good point but "when everyone is healthy". is a pretty rare occurrence and when they are not all healthy, they rise. I'm not here to rip France apart. He's a fine European country. He is costing just a hair over the minimum and he just might be a better option in 2025 than the choices we have on the farm at the moment but he won't be back next year and we will bringing a France doppelganger next year to replace him... if he is indeed better than the options we have on the farm. I've been making this point for years now and I won't stop making it. All 13 roster spots matter because when the injuries occur, the guys chosen for bench roles are suddenly starters. Signing a low dollar free agent and saying good enough only works if everyone stays healthy and all teams rarely stays healthy. The guys who were signed to hit at the bottom of the order, rise to middle of the order and become critical quickly. If you want a strong 1 through 9 of above average hitters, it's really hard to get there but you can get there. Everyday playing time for an average performer is not how you get there. An 88 OPS+ that can't be replaced is not how you get there. Honest competition for spots 1 through 13 on the roster is the only way to get there. There's an old saying: Those who live near the water will eventually be in the water. We are in the French Waters now.

He's been fine for someone who cost one million. In total... His 88 OPS+ says below average. For somebody who has 188 plate appearances, plays every day at 1b, hits in the 4th spot in the lineup. He has been way below average. For somebody who won't be back next year. This isn't a success story so far.

Other than the initial roster spot which was clearly a choice. This isn't a Clemens v McCusker thing. At least not directly. With Castro's versatility and even the versatility of Clemens. It is McCusker vs everybody. You and I both know that we don't have a roster full of must have's in the current lineup. Ty France is hitting 4th! If Ty France is hitting 4th in the lineup. That lineup can never be considered locked down full of must haves 1 through 9. There is a ton of room for McCusker. It could be argued that the only lineup Must Have's just happened to collide with each other one week ago and therefore wiping all the must have's from the roster in one 50 million dollar moment. This is predetermination. McCusker should get a couple of starts this weekend against the left handers. It won't matter what he does with them.

I was hoping it was gone. But, we just saw it. This leads me to believe it's closer to sentence two. The team is constructed different. Bader and France are everyday playing additions. They are not short siders. We have 5 left handed hitters on the team currently. It's about Faith and Rocco had more faith in Margot than he does in McCusker. Where is that faith or lack of faith coming from? I don't know but I don't trust it. Consider this: Kody Clemens has been a rock star. Clemens fell into this rock stardom. Kody was traded for on April 26th. For 16 games... Kody accumulated just 13 AB's. 2 for 13 over his first two weeks. Was Kody capable of this stretch on April 26th when he arrived or did he magically become what we are seeing right now? DId he just poof into this at the exact moment that opportunity was presented to him? Presented to him because Rocco suddenly had nobody else to turn to. Anyway... I'd like to simply say this: Clemens was obviously trusted over McCusker. But... by utilization you can see that Clemens wasn't trusted initially. Clemens didn't earn opportunity, every other option had to be taken from Rocco before he would have to be trusted. Rocco or the front office should not be getting credit for knowing Clemens would go 11 for 26 over 7 games when the entire team got hurt. And Rocco isn't going to get the benefit of the doubt from at least me of being all knowing if he puts McCusker to sleep. Let's see what the lineup looks like against the left hander tomorrow night.

Just want to say this: 1. I was disappointed that the Twins trusted Clemens over McCusker at the time of the Clemens trade for Cash. I have nothing against Clemens, don't know much about him other than what his stats and opportunity has been like. Having more faith in Clemens over McCusker was a problem in my eyes. 2. Today I was pissed that McCusker was pinch hit for in the 3rd inning once the game resumed. It was a bullpen game the rest of the way for Cleveland. They have 3 well rested lefty relievers in the pen (a 4th with the the doubleheader extra guy available in the next game). You know a left handed pitcher was going to come out to face Larnach in the 5 hole and Clemens two batters later in the 7 hole and that's exactly when Cantillo entered the game with Larnach heading to the plate (Which may have happened anyway) because Cantillo threw multiple innings. Cantillo was followed by another lefty Allard who entered the game with Larnach at the plate once again. These early moves just make it easy for the opposing manager. All of this bugged me but mainly... Let McCusker bat. Let him get some major league swings in. There was plenty of game to go. 3. As much as point #2 bummed me out and as much as the point #1 has me concerned about the faith the Twins exhibit in their own system offensively. I'm thankful it was Clemens. The guy just won us another game almost by himself and that's 3 games you can say that about in a very short period of time. No matter what I think about point #1 and point #2. Clemens has been our best player since he arrived. Keep him in the lineup and let's see how long he can keep this going.

It's a still a team with 13 position players on the roster. Choosing two players as "Must Step Ups" is a little narrow. Who is Rocco giving the playing time to? That's who must step up. Could be anybody but it has to be somebody... somebodies actually.

Who knows with Clemons. The odds are against him. To be honest. His past numbers don't mean anything to me. Burning all of his options while only accumulating less than two years of service time strongly suggests that he has not gotten opportunity, 444 sporadic plate appearances really suggests that he hasn't gotten opportunity. Yet, he still found himself on the Phillies 26 man roster at age 29 which suggests that there was something Philadelphia tried to hang on to despite his not getting that opportunity. The one thing I know. The best way to cool down a hot hitter is to bench him. Put him in the lineup as long as that bat is working.

Quite possible It's hard to know with concussions and especially with no inside information and even if I had inside information... I wouldn't be sure what to do with that info since I was sleeping in med school. If I were to guess... Wallner will spend at least the weekend in St. Paul tuning up especially with two left handers throwing for the Royals. Tampa follows with a parade of right handed starters. I'm planning on going to the Twins game on Saturday and just might attend the Saints game that night. I'd like to see Wallner up close because the players are right on top of you in St. Paul. Anyway, if Wallner beats Buxton to the club. I think that would be bad news on the concussion front with Buxton extending past the 7 required days.

I'm going to repeat what I thought back at the time of the trade. At the time of the trade... I questioned if the Twins were better off with one big player (Polonco) or 3 maybe 4 smaller pieces (The players we spent the Polanco money on)... especially coming off a decent year in the playoffs. I didn't declare... I questioned it at the time. Despite the terrible year that Polanco had and the decent year that Santana had... I'm ready to declare that I think we would have been better off with the one big player. I'm not inclined to argue player for player... Santana worked out, Disco and Margot did not. I'm more inclined to argue concept and in the end... it was one positive in Santana and three negatives with dollar figures attached to them in Disco, Margot and Farmer. Yes I'm including Margot since he ate up some of the savings that Polanco provided and I'm including Farmer because he was chosen to stay at significant money when they could have kept Polanco instead. At the time of the trade... despite the loss of Polanco which I thought would be a blow. I still thought it was possible that the Twins won the trade. IF and only if Gonzalez develops into something in the future. It's going to be up the to the Twins development staff to win this trade. Trades are tough... gonna win some and lose some. Developing G.G. is how you win trades.

It's been a bit of roster utilization chaos for the past 6 days starting with the Bader and France tweaks followed by the collision and Castro in and out. In the calmer stretch of health for 5 days just prior to the injuries. Buxton, Correa, Lee, France, Bader, Castro and Larnach were every day must have's for Rocco. Lewis could also be considered every day but he was also seemingly being eased in. DH'ing for a couple to start and a day off after two games at 3B. Correa ended up resting before a day off followed by rainout and ended up sitting an extra day during the rain makeup double header. Clemens was the first choice primary fill in when Lewis and Correa took that time off. Bride and Keirsay were basically glued to the bench. Interesting utilization notes during the calmer stretch of health. Castro became an outfielder exclusively when he returned on May 6. I find that interesting because infield was the perceived need when Bride and Clemens were signed after injuries to Castro and Keaschall. I get it but when Lewis and Castro returned on the same day infielders Gasper and Julien were sent down. Castro moved to OF which suggests that one of Bride or Clemens was infield superfluous and that is based on Castro... let's call it... flowing to the OF low spot upon return. Larnach was holding down the DH spot. Then the chaos hit. France, Bader, the collision boys and Castro unavailable for either a couple games or placed on the IL7 on back to back days. The adjustments that Rocco has needed to make in the face of all that: Jeffers became an everyday player either Catching or DH'ing when not catching. Clemens and Keirsay have become everyday players (at least against right handed starters) in what has been a short window thus far with more window to come. A couple of thoughts on the chaos section. Clemens so far has been a small sample godsend. He's been our best hitter during this stretch of chaos and winning streak. Will he continue to be a good hitter... maybe... maybe not but I do hope so. I wasn't keen on his addition because I felt that spot belonged to McCusker but if he ends up being one of the those guys who just needed a chance. He's getting his chance and doing something with it. Good for Kody. We have faced 5 right handed starters since the injuries. Last night was the first time we faced a left handed starter so we only have that game to judge. Apart from Larnach, all the other left handers (Clemens, Kiersay and Fitzgerald were out of the lineup last night. I'm ok with that although in a slight nitpick... I think I would have let Clemens play just because he's hitting the ball right now. Not a big deal... Clemens sitting gave Bride a chance to play. Larnach continues to face left handers. After an 0 for 11 start... he has gone 6 for 24 since. I continue to be happy with how Rocco has changed in this regard. I continue to count on Larnach and I see him as someone with the potential to get hot and carry us from time to time. McCusker got a start last night against the left hander and we will see how the game finishes up today and Fitzgerald may get a courtesy start but there is nothing that they can do to avoid getting returned to St. Paul if Correa and Buxton are ready after 7 days. Through the stability and the Chaos of this incredible stretch of winning. Clemens, Larnach and Bader have been the offensive leaders. Even Vazquez has hit the ball average. All in all, the Twins have the 7th best OPS in the league over the last 15 days while the pitching has the 2nd best ERA with a 2.08 team ERA.

I believe that Buxton and Correa are eligible to return on Friday. We all know that he is going back to St. Paul when Buxton is activated. During this IL7 window. The only left hander starter scheduled was Logan Allen last night and that game was interrupted by Rain. Ironically, after McCusker is sent down. The Royals will throw a couple lefties at the Twins over the weekend. The extent of his opportunity will be short. He could finish today's game with two home runs or two strikeouts or anything in between. He's going back to St. Paul regardless.

Eventually, I'm going to steal this quote from you and claim it as my own. It'll be like Mike Sixel's "It's a dial not a switch". I'll take the same path to my theft. I'll give you credit for a while so everyone can see that I'm giving proper credit for the source. Then eventually, I'll just stop giving out the credit and simply use it more often and it will be mine. Just a heads up.

When we go back to what we were taught and what we teach as coaches. The easy answer without nuance is: It's an easier catch for the outfielder coming in so it's the outfielders ball. The outfielder is supposed to take charge and call off the infielder. That's the golden rule that we all know and it is largely correct but not always. This play had some nuance to that rule that we try to make black and white. #1 - Common Sense is still required - The golden rule that we all know doesn't mean that the outfielder should run into the infield to catch the ball. Now Buxton didn't run into the infield but close enough. He was parked by the warning track. The ball had to be hit high in order for him cover that much ground and it was impressive how much ground he covered. However... common sense, experience should have told Buck that Correa would be camped under that thing. Correa is pretty good, Buxton had no reason to Kelly Leak that thing. #2 - Nobody should call for the ball unless they are sure that they are going to catch it. Buxton isn't going to be confident that he's got it until he covers the majority of the distance and it was a lot of distance. #3 - Regardless, I like the effort. I like that Buxton is pumped up with the winning streak enough to run 3 miles to make a play. I like that Buxton is excited to be playing baseball, when I by a ticket to the game, Buxton excited to play baseball is what I want to see. He made a tough catch and worked his ass off to make it. I wouldn't be scolding Buxton. #4 - Things happen.

I didn't see this coming and I'm not sure why but Commissioner Rob Manfred just declared the regular season over. The Twins will be facing the Mariners in the playoffs on Sunday in Seattle.

Just in case I forget on May 22nd... I'll get this taken care of in advance. I'd like to wish a happy 27th birthday to Carson McCusker next Thursday. 😉 Some are but I'm not triggered by age. Here's why: A player doesn't have to have a full 6 years of great production with the Twins to be worth it. There are plenty of players doing well in their first or 2nd seasons in the major leagues at the age of 27. They don't have to hit like Juan Soto to be worth it. We all sit here and dream that Walter Jenkins is going to explode into amazingness at age 22 because he was drafted high and Keith Law says some nice things about him. I'm sure the Twins will give Jenkins every single chance possible to develop into what he is supposed to be... however... in the meantime, there are others who just might help. We are going to need players beyond Jenkins. Even if it's just for a year or two. Players need to compete for playing time and that competition should be constant.

I don't know if it was Tony or Rodney who finished with this sentence but in my opinion he has provided the best answer. If Not Now, When? I can't speak for "TD for the most part". However... Me, Myself... I don't think they should release Gasper because his scattered 34 AB's don't mean a thing yet. I also don't know if McCusker will just automatically do in the majors what he does in AAA. I don't know and the front office doesn't know. If the front office knew, their job would be incredibly easy. Nobody would ever need to be sent down because the front office knew and the team would win to the point that we were bored with all the winning because the front office knew. Right now... I'm watching the ball rocket off his bat since the start of the season and it's still coming off his bat hard. He has been hitting consistently good from day one, no slumps spanning 37 games now. His current AAA numbers are the best in not only St. Paul but the entire International League and he would be up there in the PCL with those numbers. He's 27 years old... There is no reason to wait until he is 28. There is an opening, we could use a hitter, giving a guy from the system a shot is how we potentially find a player that plays a role in 2026. Not giving him a shot is just putting him to sleep. If not now, when?

McCusker was 5 for 7 yesterday with 2 doubles.

On the offensive side it sure seems that way. On the pitching side... No Bundy's were signed for two years running now so it ain't all bad. They seem to have more confidence on that side of the ledger at the moment. With the Ryan regime... I think I reached my frustration point of being ready for someone new in the GM chair when the club was losing 90 plus games 6 out 7 years from 2011 to 2016 and the farm wasn't spitting anyone out that could help turn it around and the vets we were utilizing had very little trade value if we wanted to switch to a rebuild. Apart from Mauer... Brian Dozier was basically our top dog and when he used up his service time and dealt to the Dodgers for not that much. Raley has turned into an OK player but we threw him back to the Dodgers before he could be that OK player and when Dozier hit the free agent market... the rest of the league showed what they thought of our top dog during that stretch. Escobar got us Duran and that has worked out very well. It took the new regime to pull the trigger on that deal. Ryan wasn't selling at the deadline. From there... Twins development brought us an elite closer... but... again... that's development on the pitching side. Who are our primary trade pieces now? If we needed to rebuild who would fetch the most value. Ryan and Ober are the two if I had to guess. Both on the pitching side. The front office has done some good things, but development on the offensive side has to improve.

Sensible move in consideration of the double header and bullpen usage. It's nice to have an option like Festa available for such things. It's not the end of the road for SWR. He will be back at some point.

Loved his home run yesterday. And I loved his home run against Boston. He's has directly helped us win two games because it can be argued that we don't win those games without his two late game dingers and that's pretty good small sample return on the investment when you consider that he has only been on the roster for 17 games and only started 8. While I have stated issues that I had with his addition to the roster and I still have those same issues. That issue is simply trusting him over trusting someone in our system and what that says about the system. WhiIe, I have stated that concern... I am pulling for the guy. If he found a light switch at age 29 and that's possible. Maybe... Maybe Not... He could be back with us next year and beyond at the league minimum salary. I would have went with McCusker instead but... if Clemons is going to get the job done. Let him get the job done. Go get em Kody!

As usual... a solid post from the Goat. MLR's research is good work and it has value that everyone should pay attention to. It does tell a story but not the whole story. He would have to complete the analysis with all 30 teams to properly compare and contrast. Not knocking his research at all but I have a suspicion that he will find that some unsuccessful teams also have similar percentages (just lower WAR totals) because it stands to reason that almost all small market teams are going to have very low percentages of WAR in the free agent column since they don't play significantly in the free agent column and that will cause the percentages to rise in the other columns to compensate for free agency not being a viable source due to small market budget. What his research does show me is that the teams that he has highlighted have been good at what they do. They are developing and development pays off in different forms. In the end, it doesn't matter if they are developing young players who produce significant WAR coming from the draft room or if they are developing young Kluber's that they acquired as prospects from someone else. Young Prospects acquired using players that they developed into valuable trade pieces that interest other teams to keep the pre-arb train rolling. Either way... It's all talent identification and development of the player identified. Right now the Twins don't seem to have faith in what they are developing. They strip mined their developing young left handed hitters for parts which simply limits their value as players with the club and limits their value as trade pieces if they want to go another direction. They didn't have enough faith in their development of McCusker because they just exhibited more faith in Clemens (Loved his home run yesterday and the one in Boston) by giving the 29 year old Clemens the available roster spot instead. We seem to be on a bit of a lull on the offensive side of the ledger and I'm basing that on their actions and the low number of pre-arb players on the roster.

This is a great post. Very sensible in my opinion. You are correct... the current Twins 40 man roster contains 20 players who were homegrown. That's a high number in comparison to the rest of the league. Colorado leads with 24, Cleveland and San Fran have 21. The Twins rank 4th in the homegrown player on the 40 man roster list. There are 3 primary ways to build your roster... Homegrown, Trade or Free Agency. For discussions and the setting of a benchmark purposes. If a club uses all 3 avenues equally... It would be 13 Homegrown, 13 Trade and 13 Free Agents for 33%. Now if a team isn't typically inclined to be free agent players in the market. Think lower budget teams because they typically don't spend money... they are not going to sign 33% free agents. If free agency doesn't reach 33%... this is a zero sum game. Homegrown or trade will have to rise in percentage. Most teams do not reach 33% free agents. Only 7 teams to be exact. Texas leads the way with 19 free agents. Toronto and San Diego 15 free agents. Philly 14 free agents The Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers and the Yankees have 13 for exactly 33%. In the case of the Twins. 7 players are listed as free agent signings. (France, Correa, Castro, Bader, Vazquez, Coulombe, Stewart). That's 17%. Which means that 83% will be divided up between home grown and traded for. With the Twins... 50% is homegrown, 30% trade, 17% Free Agent and 1 waiver claim (Tonkin) hanging on the 40 man.

I was talking with Winston Churchill just the other day about the job of a baseball general manager. He said, “A baseball GM needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen.” Winston is a smart guy.