Riverbrian

What you say in this paragraph can't be argued... but I will anyway. On paper what you say... makes perfect sense. The relationship between a Pitcher and Catcher has to matter in regards to run prevention. The relationship is important... It's hard to measure of course... but... it has to matter. With that said... These relationships are forged over time and they all have a beginning. When Vazquez was signed... he was at ground zero with the Twins staff. Sure he had that veteran catcher juice on him which probably allowed him to forge relationships quicker but there was a beginning with Vazquez with the Twins and there was a beginning for Jeffers with the Twins as well. Delaying that beginning is just that... delaying that beginning until you are forced to begin a new. When you buy a new car... you gotta learn the new features. If this is a problem... just stay in your 2015 Toyota Camry and be comfortable with the .575 OPS that goes with it. However... Let's be clear... the neighbors are going to talk wondering why you spent 30 million dollars on that car.

In order to have a log jam you need multiple players performing above average at the same position or positions. Performing... Not projected to perform... Actually playing above average is necessary to create a log jam. Polanco, Julien and Farmer in January 2024 was not a log jam. Castro, Julien and Farmer was not a log jam in June 2024 either. You can't have a log jam if Kepler and Margot are getting over 300 AB's and both with a 6 in front of their OPS number. You can't have a log jam at catcher if someone is playing regular with a .575 OPS. All teams should strive for a log jam. They should spend the off-season building a projected log jam everywhere. They can try... the log jam still won't happen but... they should strive for a log jam. If an actual log jam occurs... if the roster is plump full of talented players playing above average... if the manager is scratching his head staring at this log jam and he can't figure out the playing time with everyone deserving playing time. Guess what... at that point... the playing time won't matter because he can draw names out of a hat with EVERYONE performing. The funny thing is... I've never seen a manager with that problem.

Personal lives? I really try to stay out of this type of stuff. I've listened to people say that Josh Donaldson is a cancer... Tommy Pham a clubhouse problem. I simply don't know and I also don't know if the difficult personality is actually a problem in regards to wins and losses. Coaches and Teammates don't like someone... does that mean the team goes into the tank if they remain on the roster? Every office in the world has popular and less popular employees. I've seen popular co-workers who were not the best at their jobs and unpopular ones get the job done. If people read something and decide that they hate Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen is the greatest human being in the world. Well... OK... I guess... that is what people believe. Personally... I've never met either of them. All I know is this... Jake Taylor seemed to be a pretty good teammate and leader. Roger Dorn and Eddie Harris seemed to be clubhouse problems but by the end of the movie with a team in a pennant race.. Dorn and Harris seemed to be leaders all of a sudden.

Great Post I agree with you. It's complicated... it has to be complicated because of roster limitations. But... everything you are saying... I agree with because I've seen it with my own eyes. I've come to the conclusion that it's possible that our expectations for young players exceed our expectations for veteran players and I think the Twins have a little of that cooking in their kitchen. There are a couple of arguments in support of the Twins. 1. You need players that you can stash in the minors for call up when needed. That stash isn't endless so it's risk to drain it during the off-season. 2. You don't want to start the clock to early on players with the potential of a long career. A talented player reaching free agency at age 30 as opposed to 28 will be a fairly large issue in the final year of club control. But... there are a couple of arguments that do not support the Twins and how they SEEM to operate in regards to young talent. 1. I see no evidence of lower tier vets out performing Pre-arb players. None. Yes... you can sign a lower tier vet who produces league average or even slightly above but you can trip over the same production from a pre-arb player and in the case of lower tier vets who perform below league average... I see yearly evidence of pre-arb players who match or exceed. 2. I see yearly evidence of smaller market teams thriving with over half of their 26 man roster comprised of pre-arb talent. With the Twins certain rookies will get chance after chance while others are given one shot. The Twins rode Buxton until Buxton become Buxton. They rode Sano until Sano became Sano. The rest of the young players coming up through the farm spill over the side into the baseball wind. How can the Twins miss on Rooker, How can the Padres? How can the Royals. This is how. 3. Pre-Arb Talent that struggle... will be back next year to try again with some experience behind them. Lower tier vet talent that struggle or even those who perform average or slightly above on one year contracts will not be back next year. In the end... I'm not a fan of pre-determination... even when that pre-determination is done by front offices whose job it is to make these hard decisions. Personally, I'd rather Keaschall be given a legit shot to win a job if he is indeed the best player. I'd rather Emma be given a legit shot to win a job. I'd rather anybody on the farm be given a legit shot over some 1 year lower tier guy who will not be back next year. With that said... I expect Keaschall to get a roster spot when a specific sequence events occur in 2025 to require his early addition to the 40 man and 26 man roster. When that happens... I hope he is given the opportunity to win a job and not sit on the bench like Camargo did watching Vazquez OPS .575.

Clubhouse leadership? Some are quiet leaders... Some are vocal leaders. How that translates to the other players in the locker room is hard for those in the clubhouse to quantify and basically impossible for us outsiders to quantify. Does leadership mean good guy? I don't know if he is a good guy. I have no idea if he kicks puppies or feeds them the best puppy chow in the world. All I know... Byron Buxton is a Minnesota Twin. He's been a Twin for a long time with more to come. He plays for my team. I wish him health and everything that he wants to accomplish on the baseball field and in his personal life. Hopefully he provides leadership and inspiration for his teammates along the way. At the same time, I hope that (insert name of young player here) provides leadership and inspiration for his teammates along the way. Play Well... Play Hard... Put the work in. The leadership thing will take care of itself during the journey by helping the team win games regardless of experience.

First he needs a 40 man spot. He doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man until December 26. If he doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man until that time. Getting placed on the 40 man will require a combination of events. Injuries or unexpected poor play from others combined with good play from Luke playing for the Saints. If those things happen... we could see him this year and I'll cheer my head off for him. Injuries and poor play happen all the time so it isn't impossible for these things to happen. It's up to him to hit that baseball in AAA so he's the obvious call to make. One thing that works in his favor is his multi-position work. This opens the door for him for injuries and poor play at multiple spots. The thing that doesn't work in his favor is that 40 man roster. He has to out perform those in AAA that are on the 40 man.

I don't know what 2025 is going to bring. I won't pretend to. I'd like him to stop looking at strike 3 as much as he does and be a little more aggressive with two strikes. I think that would be helpful but... completely change his approach? These guys change approaches all the time sometimes within a single AB. However... that looking for the right pitch served him pretty well... he carried us in 2023. It was Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers and Julien who covered for Correa, Buxton and Gallo having down years in 2023. Julien may have struck out 31% of the time but he also led the team in walks... led the team in on base percentage. 2024 on the other hand wasn't good but 2023 wasn't good for Correa and 2024 was very good for Carlos. Julien is 25 years old making the minimum with 600 MLB AB's under his belt. The Twins have coaches and analytic infrastructure to work on whatever he needs to work on. Defense? I'm not going to defend his defense... I have seen better defenders. I get it. I'm certainly not going to spin defensive metrics. That's for other people to do. I'm just trying to say... it's a dial not a switch. For those who can't see past defense and claim the world comes to an end with Julien putting a glove on his left hand. I'm just placing him in a defensive pile with others who played the position last year. It's a dial... not a switch. Gleyber is in that pile, the Yankees reached the World Series and he just signed a 15 million dollar deal with the Tigers after a .708 OPS season. Gavin Lux was the primary 2B with the Dodgers... They did alright. The Padres did alright when Cronenworth shifted over to 2B from 1B. The Orioles did OK when Westburg shifted to 2B from 3B. It's a dial... not a switch. Correa and Santana covering defensively? I'm going to assume that you mean having good defenders at those two positions can cover for someone not as good at another position. I have to assume that because the thought that Correa helped Julien's range by getting to balls that Julien couldn't get to would be basically impossible. If what I assume you meant is what you meant... OK... I won't argue that having a couple of good defenders in the infield... could cover for a weaker defender at another spot. That is true but the same would also have to be true at the plate. In 2023... Julien covered for a sub par Correa at the plate. But in the end... the 2B gets ball hit at him and the SS gets ball hit at him. Range is not going to change that.

I apologize but I'm really confused by your post. Did Larnach reinvent himself? Did Larnach make adjustments? Don't they all make adjustments along the way? If Julien hits like Larnach... will that be enough? Pull hitter? Not in the games I watched. Julien has always hit the ball hard the other way... and yes... he can also turn on a pitch. No future at 2B? Defensively... he has been on par with Lux, Rengifo, Torres, Cronenworth and Westburg. But... Ok... he must be moved to 1B where his bat isn't sufficient to play? His 2023 slugging numbers would have ranked 6th among 1B last year. .459 would have tied with Pete Alonso and would have ranked ahead of Matt Olson. His 2023 OPS would have ranked 4th with last years numbers. I get it... his 2024 wasn't good. But his 2023 was really really really good.

Jekyll and Hyde thus far. It's important to point out that his future years... do not... absolutely do not... have to be either extreme. His future production could land somewhere in the middle. And that middle is still valuable for someone making the minimum. For example... If you add his Jekyll and Hyde together. His Jekyllhyde is still above average as a hitter. HIs 2024 .616 OPS over 301 Plate Appearances was not good. However... no matter how bad his 2024 was. His career OPS is still above average because his 2023 was that good. Career OPS over 709 PA's is .742. Santana had a .749 OPS last year and we were singing songs about him and suddenly he costs 12 million. Castro had an OPS of .716 last year. Julien is that pre-arb player making the minimum that we need so we don't have to pay extra for it. The willingness to write him off and toss aside is somewhat astounding. Give him a job... He will tell us through performance. Check his teeth and hair... if his hair is messed up and his teeth widen to the point where they don't fit his mouth. We will know he drank the potion again.

Traded a top half of the rotation starter for a bullpen rental. They do not do this trade if allowed to turn back time. They trade the player the Royals probably originally asked for instead. If anybody has any thought that the front offices of any club has this assessment thing down. They don't. Aroldis Chapman was a rental. 2023 was a year of Chapman needing to rehabilitate his reputation. He was left of the Yankees playoff roster in 2022. He dropped from 16 million AAV to a 3 million deal with the Royals. What did the Royals think of Ragans? He wasn't enough to acquire a bullpen rental. The Royals required the Rangers to also include an outfielder by the name of Roni Cabrera. We can look back and say... Boy those Rangers sure blew this one. The Royals also didn't know what they had because they required another player to get the deal done for a bullpen rental. Assessment is hard. There is no reason to be afraid of youth. I'll be hoping for the health of our young lefthander. And the Royals were probably asking for somebody else.

The thing I find interesting... is just another data point that can be used to illustrate how the Twins compare to the other 29 teams in regards to the commitment to keeping left handed hitters away from left handed pitching. Wallner isn't good enough to face left handed hitters? Some believe this. OK... how about this: The Twins are 30th ranked in left handed hitters facing left handed pitching. So no left handed hitter on the Twins apparently is? . Still think this is still on Wallner's ability to hit left handed pitching? OK... here is another data point to chew on? 12 of the top 15 in plate appearances were left handed hitters. What's that... Those top 12 are the best hitters in baseball... Wallner doesn't belong in that group? OK... Well... I guess... The Twins will make sure that he never gets into that group. The Twins either failed to develop left handed hitters who could compete against left handed hitters or they are simply shutting it down on purpose. Either way... they spend the off-season shopping for right handed hitters. Investing millions.

Don't need to go to a bar. I could win those bets with some of the folks on TD. Which is the same thing because the TD forums drive me to drink.

If he remains healthy. Margot led the team in AB's vs Left Handed Pitching last year with 156. Interestingly... Shohei Ohtani (Left Handed Hitter) led all of baseball PA's against left handed pitching with last year with 249. Even more interesting and I mean real interesting. The top 8 batters in baseball in 2024 plate appearances against left handed pitching... ARE ALL LEFT HANDED HITTERS. Ohtani, Schwarber, Duran, Harper, Soto, Freeman, Devers and Henderson. Additional Interest... The highest ranked right handed hitter in plate appearances against left handed pitching isn't a huge name but a rather young name. It was Ezequiel Tovar of the Rockies with 209 plate appearances. He was tied for 12th... with Alvarez and Carroll... who are interestingly... both left handed. 9 and 10 on the list are switch hitters: De La Cruz and Marte. Jazz Chisholm... another lefty is 11th. Just to keep the interest going... Arraez checks in at 15th and he is... again left handed. For those who don't want to do the math. 12 of the top 15 players in plate appearances are pure left handed hitters. I find that interesting. Others may not have any interest.

Boxes. I hate putting people in boxes. Baseball loves boxes.

Sauerkraut and Fish

We flavored all of the poles in Grand Forks either Cherry and Grape. It wasn't long after... A day in mid-December that teachers in our elementary schools were noticing that a lot of students were all of sudden having trouble speaking clearly.

I think it would be a mistake to declare Julien done. Not to turn this into a Rooker discussion but... Rooker got 213 PA's in 2021. Those 213 PA's were pretty much his first 213 PA's in the majors. He produced a .688 OPS to start his career which is a number that a string of vets have not reached in subsequent years. The Majority of his time in 2021 was spent in AAA producing a .937 OPS over 267 PA's and it should be pointed out that Cruz was traded at the 2021 deadline because the team was out of contention so we could take some time to provide opportunity to younger players without a pennant chase hanging over their heads. In 2022... Arraez, Buxton and Sanchez spent the majority of time at DH. Sano was toast. Our primary OF was Celestino, Kepler and Gordon. 2022 is another season out of contention that could be used to look at younger players. Rooker also not getting opportunity with San Diego and Kansas City despite producing a 1.044 OPS in AAA. He signs with Oakland for 2023 and only gets opportunity because the A's opened up the season with some injuries. They notice that he can all of sudden coming out of nowhere hit when his name is put in the lineup card. The Twins flat out missed. So did the Padres and Royals... but mostly the Twins because they were working with him the longest and they couldn't see what he could become. Rooker is a lesson in what we are still talking about today. Develop or Die! Brent Rooker was paid the minimum by the A's for .817 OPS and .927 OPS.

To be fair... Let's talk about a wildly successful Ty France. Let say for discussion sake that he goes nuts and produces a .900 OPS over 600 Plate Appearances and leads us to the playoffs. I hope he does that... it would certainly be a wonderful thing for the 2025 Twins... and for Ty France. After this type of year is complete. Can we afford to bring him back next year? Good Year... Bad Year... In Between Year. He's gone.

To add to the fine point that you are making about veteran rope. We rode Margot for the entire year last year. The result of his entire year with the Twins... his 2024 performance and his entire career has taken his off-season value to the level of? Still unsigned. We hung on to a guy that nobody wants 1 month later. Yet we can't seem to develop major league talent and those developing players still have value to other clubs. What are we doing?

We do agree although I'd say that the term prospects is limiting. Let's just go with pre-arb or minimally priced. France for example is no prospect but he costs 1 million... he is minimally priced. His presence doesn't move the financial needle. You can't take the France money and combine it with others of similar ilk to go for a bigger fish because it's barely over the minimum. A France that returns to his earlier form is a home run at that price point. If he doesn't... that's where the question becomes did we let France take opportunity because France won't be here in 2026. My general point is... The more pre-arb players that you have on your roster... the more money available to sign bigger free agents if you'd like. More Pre-arb opportunity... the better the odds of improving your pre-arb players for 2026 and 2027 and lessening the need to sign lower tier free agents in 2026 and 2027. It's how you get off this thing and be more like Milwaukee and Cleveland. We need to up our pre-arb numbers. We need to develop... that need will never go away... even if you are the Dodgers but yes... You and I both know... especially if you are the Twins, Brewers or Royals.

Yet the Dodgers might be the best at development out of all 30 teams.

Great Post I'll be cheering for everyone on our squad but the bottom line is this. I'm not a fan of pre-determination. I want fair competition for the playing time that's available and that will ultimately make the team the best it can be. I don't hate Harrison Bader. I don't hate Ty France. It's the system that has made me blue. No matter how many times a certain poster comes at me trolling along saying that I need to admit that I hate. I don't. I don't want to hate anyone. Harrison Bader is fighting for a career... it's important to him. Ty France is fighting for a career... it's important to him. Trevor Larnach is fighting for a career... it's important to him. Willi Castro is fighting for a career... it's important to him. Brent Rooker is fighting for a career. And all of those guys in AAA, AA, A+, A and rookie ball are fighting for careers. I assume these players are putting the work in to compete against the best in the world and the opportunity provided to them matters. Pre-determination kills the hard work. However... you can't roster everyone fighting for a career. They all are. After Family... it's the most important thing in the world to all of them... if it's not... good riddance. Hard decisions have to be made because of 26 and 40 man roster limitations. There is only one way to make these hard decisions. Let them compete for it! Pre-determination of who is going to get that limited opportunity only works if you the front office nailed it without error. The front offices of every club are not capable of nailing it before the season started. If Vazquez is going to OPS .575... He should be leaving the door wide open for someone else who is fighting for a career to take his playing time. If the front office knew that Vazquez was going to OPS .575 would they have offered him 30 million dollars? If Margot is going to OPS .646 then he should be leaving the door wide open for someone else who is fighting for a career to see if they can do better.. even if it just a little bit better. If Julien is going to OPS .615 he should understand that he is going to the minors to work on it. It's about fairness... that's how you should manage an organization full of players that are fighting for careers in the major leagues. Provide opportunity to those deserving of the most opportunity... not some pre-determined, see it through to the end long game strategy that is blown apart by injuries in April and eventually collapses in September. This cry for fairness also extends to our young left handed hitters. Wallner and Larnach deserve the same opportunities being offered to young left handed hitters with other organizations. I believe in Larnach... I believe he can help us win games... will we help or hinder him in his pursuit of a major league career? Does he really need to regret playing for Minnesota because of an organizational philosophy that doesn't exist in the other 29 clubs? Then follow the arbitration compensation progression. Trevor is making 2.1 million this year Arb 1. And he requires a 6.25 million handcuff. If he thrives in the role we are carving for him he will be due a raise in Arb 2. Now he is 4 to 6 million and still requires that 6.25 million handcuff. Let's say he thrives in the same role we are carving for him. Now he gets bumped to... Maybe over 10 million in Arb 3. Plus he requires that same handcuff. At what point does the platoon pair price itself out?

I appreciate the attempt to raise my spirits. I fear that I won't be rejoicing. According to roster resource - The current projected 26 man roster has: 2 switch hitters 3 left handed hitters 8 right handed hitters There is no way... the left handers don't sit against left handed pitching. We had 8 right handed hitters on the roster and the front office said they were looking for right handed hitters and they signed right handed hitters and we already had 8 right handed hitters on the roster when they said that and when they signed that. If Rocco surprises me... I will then rejoice... but then I will be wondering what the purpose of purposely targeting right handed hitters was all about.

My original post only consisted of the projected 26 man rosters as of February 17, 2025 based on projections on roster resource. I'm only doing that to show that teams are not dying with pre-arb players. Some are actually thriving. If they can thrive... why can't we? The discussion got expanded to 40 man by Nurse. Which is fine by me. In the case of the other 3 players that you won't consider. That's fine but I still think it's important to say yet in all three cases. You'd have to consider Corey Kluber. In your data over the past 20 years he was probably a big part of the positive WAR number that Cleveland accumulated via trade. Corey was in the Padres system and not ranked in their top 30 prospect list when acquired by Cleveland in a three team trade in 2010. He reported to AA. At that point... he is a player that "has not produced and not of consequence" which is the same boat that Camargo, Cartaya and Gasper are in right now. Kluber got rocked for 4 innings total in 2011. Made 12 starts in 2012 producing a 5.14 ERA. Finally arriving for good in 2013 3 years after the trade at age 27. Kluber ended up being a prime example of what you are advocating. What you are advocating is a fair point. He ended up being a large career WAR number that drives the data you have collected to make your point. There was a time when he had not produced and not of consequence. In regards to my point... I can't make my point that a pre-arb player can produce what we are paying for low tier free agents... or trading for lower tier players if they have not produced anything and of no consequence. I also care about the total production of the players that they produce. I also care about the total production of the players they buy. This kinda brings us back to the discussion we had last year around this time that went horribly wrong. Forget the names involved in that discussion. The question was at the time. Is it better to have 1 bigger name or is it better to divide that 1 bigger player into 4 lesser players? I honestly wasn't sure when I originally asked that question. I'm more sure now... I'd rather have the bigger name. But in order to have the 1 bigger name... the other roster spots will have to go to players of no consequence and then hope that they can turn into a Kluber so you don't have to sign a Bundy in the future.

He is counting off the 40 man roster. Which is fine to do because... trade acquisitions can be placed on the 40 man and not on the 26 man roster. David Fry on the 40 man and currently on the injured list is the only player that kinda fits that description so Cleveland is relying on a lot of homegrown talent on the farm. They have 13 players who are 3 years service time or beyond if you include the injured list. Kwan, Ramirez, Santana, Thomas, Hedges, McKenzie, Clase, Sewald, Junis on the projected 26 man leaving 17 Pre-Arb. Current Injured List: Beiber, Means, Hentes, Stephens... Once healthy... that will knock them down to 13. pre-arb assuming it is players with options sent down to make room for those 4. Milwaukee currently has 1 Arb Eligible player on the injured list that could knock them down to 15 pre-arb players assuming it is a player with options sent down to make room. To your point... Yes... trading for prospects is a viable way for teams to staff their roster. In light of the point you are making... and I believe you are making a good point. On the current 40 man... There are 5 current Twins pre-arb who were acquired via trade. Woods-Richardson, Martin, Camargo, Cartaya and Gasper. The Twins ain't doing much of that either or we've hit a severe lull between waves. It sure seems like the Twins are often times choosing lower tier vet over development either via trade or free agency.