Riverbrian

Staying in the lines of these perimeters. No They must stay with Vazquez for two reasons. A. You will get very little for him. Other than a little bit of money that could... in theory... be applied at the trade deadline, which is nice in consideration of the past two deadlines but may not be necessary. B. They've done nothing to prepare for his possible departure.

I said it last year and I'm still saying it today. Not utilizing Jair Camargo at all last year when he was for whatever reason placed on the 26 man roster was a big deal. Some may say that it was just 20 games or so... what's the big deal? Some may say that Camargo wasn't ready so what's the big deal. The big deal is that the front office has placed themselves in a situation where a catcher with a .575 OPS is not replicable. Camargo not ready? OK... well... he's still sitting there on the 40 man roster. A catcher must rise this year from the system. If Camargo or Cartaya are not ready by the end of the year... the off-season will see the front office spending more limited resources trying to acquire the replacement for Vazquez and that's a big deal. A catcher must rise this year. I would be OK... forcing the issue and living with the consequences. The Consequences are: Cartaya or Camargo do worse than a .575 OPS. The Twins must sleep in the bed they made. Keeping Vazquez like he is not replaceable is sleeping in the bed they made. Trading him and forcing a young catcher into playing time ready or not is also sleeping in the bed they made.

If the Mets will take him in a deal. His numbers will not be difficult to replicate. However... I remain concerned because the Twins haven't been letting anybody try replicate or even surpass those numbers. All Minnesota Twins Eggs are currently in the Jeffers and Vazquez basket. The current price for Eggs is about 6 bucks a dozen. At those prices... It would sure be nice to have some chickens around laying eggs for breakfast.

Buyers Buy and Sellers Sell. Personally... I will never blame them for buying because they were in contention and you should buy when in contention. I'd be more inclined to blame them for sitting the next two trade deadline's out while in contention. I agree with you. This trade is a prime example of how difficult the job is for front offices. Glossing over Povich and the other two players included in the deal. Just using Yennier Cano alone. Yennier a year later figured something out at age 29 with the Orioles. Ironically... he was traded in a package for a player who also figured something out with the Orioles at age 29. Cano alone provided more value while making the major league minimum. Front offices have a big pile of players of similar talent that need sorting for value assessment. It can't be easy. It's why I don't take their assessments as gospel and will always wonder what others who don't get an opportunity could have done while I watch those who get opportunity flounder.

Your very first sentence was easy to understand.

Agreed. If he is too injured to run or no longer has speed because of injury... the stealing issue will take care of itself. But... if he still has wheels when healthy. Let's go. I'm not interested in removing important parts of his game in order to keep him healthy. That has been tried and it doesn't seem to work. Play him when he is healthy... Put him on the injured list when he is not. It's rather simple. Play Ball!

I don't believe that Jorgenswest is saying he shouldn't get a chance. I think he is saying that if the thought is that he is just going to get game action when the score is 8 to 0... that's not what will happen... So just return him. Personally... I'm OK with him getting a shot... I'm even Ok living with some consequences that may come with getting that shot. If they believe he's a future Ryan Pressly. Give him a job and let's start down that path. But... I agree with Jorgenswest. If they think they can shelter him and burn a roster spot to avoid the potential consequences of his utilization... Sheltering him is just going to put more stress on the other members of the bullpen... just return him.

45% of the games might be decided by 4 runs or more. That's the final result of games. What is the percentage of those 45% of games... that are actually 4 runs or more when the starting pitcher is removed and the bullpen activated? Once you find that percentage... the next question would be this: When the starting pitcher is yanked from the game in the 2nd inning down 5 to 1.. Is the game over? You still need that guy who many are placing the low level tag on to post zero's on the scoreboard so the offense has a chance to come back. The Guardians had the best bullpen in baseball last year. Scott Barlow was probably the worst performer in that bullpen. He was 6th in appearances with 63. The only member of the bullpen with an ERA over 4.00 at 4.25. Last in WHIP with a 1.36. 33 of those 63 appearances by Barlow were considered high leverage by baseball ref. If Barlow produced those same numbers with the Twins last year. He would have been 2nd in appearances. 5th best ERA. 5th in WHIP. Cleveland didn't have anyone performing like Thielbar, Okert or Jackson last year. You can build a bullpen with talent from top to bottom and in order to do that... it starts by not thinking you can roster a guy that you don't want to use when it matters.

Low Leverage situations exist. Containing members of the bullpen to only facing low leverage is impossible and therefore the concept of a low leverage reliever doesn't exist. Are they closing? Usually no. Are they coming in with the game 3 to 2 or 4 to 2 in the 6th inning. Yes they are. Does a manager have a pecking order of preference. Yes they do. But that pecking order gets pecked at through unavailability because three relievers were used on Monday and five relievers were used on Tuesday. Who is left on Wednesday and who will be left on Thursday? People can label pitchers low leverage all they want, but you can't shelter a bullpen guy. It's Martha and the Vandelas in the bullpen... Nowhere to run... Nowhere to hide. If you believe that putting an 8 deep bullpen staff is impossible. I'll agree it's hard and much much harder when a low leverage guy can be justified.

Every team has a Willi Castro or two on their roster. Even if the season starts without an obvious Castro type candidate... One or two will show up on all rosters because someone has to flow to the opening created by rest, injury and poor play. In other words... if the team doesn't have an experienced player used to multiple positions. One will be created. Every team has them. Most teams are not paying 6 million for them.... some are but every team has them because you can't back up all 8 spots with 4 extra roster spots. If Castro goes to a static position... the Twins will need to create his replacement and that creation is not a big deal because what Castro does really isn't that unique. You create them by simply by playing them at multiple positions. It's not hard to do. To me the question is this: Is Castro really a good enough player to place at a static position and say... We found our guy. That's basically what happens when you say Castro is our 2B and 2B only. He's your guy... hold off Lee... Hold off Julien. Castro is the guy. I don't know if Castro is the guy that makes you say... Eureka... We found him... Stop looking.

Options are a powerful thing.

The keys are whoever the Twins choose to invest in. Out of 5490 Team AB's last year over 2,000 ABs were committed to players producing OPS with a 6 or 5 in front of the number. For those looking for the juice of our superstars to be the key to our success... I'm saying that 2,000 sub par AB's from low OPS dudes will marginalize that superstar juice gains quickly. About one third of our AB's were from sub-par performers. It's the bad players that kill you. If bad performance is going to be allowed to continue in the 7,8 and 9 spots... Yep... It's the key to the season... every season for that matter.

Lee will be the wild card in this discussion. Does he break camp as the top dog at 2B or start in AAA playing SS?

1. Christian Vazquez produced an OPS of .575 last year in 2024. 2. Jair Camargo was up with the big club for around 20 games in 2024. Despite Vazquez and his .575 OPS. Camargo only had 7 plate appearances stretched out over 5 game appearances. Camargo was asked to just sit there quietly and observe the guy making 10 million this year produce an OPS of .575. 3. Camargo was called up three separate times April, July and September to sit and watch Vazquez produce that .575 with no game action and he is still on the 40 man roster. 4. This is the last year of the Vazquez contract. If someone doesn't rise from the farm to play catcher in 2026. The Twins will be spending millions on a Vazquez doppelganger. The front office... Everyone will be a little more comfortable committing to a catcher in 2026 if they at least show something in 2025. 5. I don't care who the new owner is... the budget isn't going to explode over 200 million because the new owner feels like it. We will have a budget in 2026 and beyond. Any thought that the Twins are just going to go get JT Realmuto with the new owner's checkbook is extremely optimistic. If the Twins do sign JT Realmuto next year will there be any more free agent honeymoon dollars from the new owner left to spend? The TWINS HAVE TO DO SOMETHING in regards to catcher development and the clock is ticking with Vazquez soon gone... the names change year to year and this need development need is constant at every position but that clock is always ticking. If neither Cartaya or Camargo fail to rise up this year. If the Twins do not provide the opportunity for either of them to rise up. The Twins will be right back at the free agent table spending millions to land a sub par veteran catcher at over inflated catcher prices for next season and the millions spent on the Vazquez replacement could be combined with other available dollars to upgrade any where on the 26 man roster next year. On players that will play over 100 games a year. Develop or Die. Bottom Line: The Cartaya dice roll had to happen because something has to happen. Roll those bones. Come On 7

I believe that the shedding of the financial commitment to Donaldson allowed the Twins to make a financial commitment to Carlos Correa. With that consideration... It was a good trade for the Twins. Although at the time... I admit that I did not like the trade of Garver for IFK by itself. It wasn't until soon after when IFK was moved to the Yankees that I felt good about the trade and I still feel good about the trade. Donaldson, Garver, Rortvedt for Correa, Urshela, Sanchez and Rodriquez was a good deal.

There is a reason for everything. I don't know but I will suggest... front office conjecture. 😉 In 2014 which was the last full season in the minors for Joc. He had 206 PA's vs left handed pitchers in Albuquerque and he produced a .994 OPS against them. 385 PA's against right handed pitchers and he produced a .980. In 2015 with the Dodgers... Joc had 129 PA's vs left handers and produced a .691 against them. Compared to his .784 against RH. Joc was the primary CF that year... his outfield mates were Andre Eithier and Carl Crawford who are also left handed hitters and Yusiel Puig a right handed hitter. In 2016 he dropped down to 64 PA's vs lefties and an OPS of .469. And Boom... Just like that... Joc was a right handed hitting specialist for the rest of his career. In 2016... Apart from Joc... The Dodgers other OF options were all right handed. Puig, Kendrick, Thompson and Kike. The Dodgers were left handed in the infield with Seagar, Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Utley. Only Utley platooned with Kike sliding over to 2B against the southpaw and he produced a .669 OPS vs LH. The right handed hitting Kendrick had an OPS of .625 vs LH. What did the Dodgers gain? What did Joc lose?

Or... It is the creation of a bigger problem in an attempt to solve a much smaller problem. You said it yourself... "three-fourths". Why go out and search for more right handed bats when they will face the "three-fourths". The Twins as a team in 2024 ranked 30th in pure left handed batters facing left handed pitching with 194. Only the Mariners, A's, Reds, Angels, Pirates and Rays... none of which made the playoffs... didn't reach approximately double the amount of left handed hitters facing left handed batters. The Red Sox led all of baseball with 843 PA's. The Top 9 were: Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Cardinals, Guardians, Nationals, Dodgers, Orioles and Padres. 6 of the top 9 made the playoffs. 14 individual left handed hitting players had as many AB's against left handed pitching then the entire Twins team. Have the Twins taken this beyond what others are doing?? Other teams seem to be doing OK... with left handed hitters on their roster. We have capped the development of Wallner, Larnach and Julien at "NEEDING A Margot or Bader or Farmer ATTACHED to them. If this is the best our development can do... in the name of "Information outweighs its benefit" If avoiding the cost of a game or two... which I don't believe... but if avoiding the cost of a game or two... costs us the development of a player who doesn't require a lower tier handcuff players. I'd say the cost of a game or two is a smaller price to pay.

Agree that it's conjecture. Conjecture is a conclusion drawn with incomplete information. Wallner will do great against left handed pitchers is conjecture. Wallner will be average against left handed pitchers is conjecture. Wallner will be terrible against left handed pitchers is conjecture. Some of us are literally begging the organization for more complete information.

When I watch Julien bat. Patience is the thing that stands out to me. In his good 2023... he seemed to show patience. In his bad 2024... he seem to show patience. I tend to like the patient approach because in the game of cat and mouse between pitchers and hitters. Pitchers are trying to get a hitter to hit a pitch they don't want to hit. Swinging at pitches that pitchers want you to isn't ideal. Waiting for your pitch could... in theory... lead to some interesting numbers such as the high BABIP that many thought was sure to regress. However the downside of extreme patience can lead to two strike counts and two strike counts leads to exactly what you point out in your post and of course... in the case of Julien... High K% because you can't strike out with zero or one strike. You and I were part of discussion awhile back about K% and offensive production. There wasn't obvious correlation because some of the best contact teams were the lowest producing teams in the league. In the case of Julien. For some reason he got to two strikes too often in 2024. (I bolded those 4 words because of 75% of those words). When that happened... Too many times he stood and looked at strike 3... sometimes those suckers were right down the middle. If you are patient to the point of reaching two strikes... at that point... go ahead and produce that .509 OPS. Make contact with that pitch that isn't in your happy zone.

You got the right guy. Yep... He needs to change his 2 strike approach.

To me this says... Why is he working on his swing against left handed pitching if the organization has no intention of letting him hit left handed pitching? Did Julien do this on his own? Behind the bushes when nobody was watching in a desperate attempt to show them all what he can do? Did the organization recommend this under the watchful eye of professional coaches and if so... how did they throw that large amount of baby out such little bathwater? I just don't buy the excuse. But... if true... get back on the horse Mr. Julien while hopefully the Twins get off their high horse.

I love this post I never want to lose sight of what you are saying. The majority of players from Aaron Judge to the 20th round pick in the last draft is putting the work in to make a dream come true.

Batting Order? Put your hottest hitters at the top or best matchups at the top because they will get more AB's. Put your coldest hitters at the bottom or worse matchups at the bottom of the order because they will get less AB's? Space out your left handed hitters and right handers the best you can so the opposing manager doesn't have a clear path to deploy the lefty or righty out of the pen. Static lineup orders serve no purpose whatsoever. If you bat in the 1 spot on Monday and the 7th spot on Tuesday and the 3rd spot on Wednesday. The mental state of the batter will eventually recover from the shock once they start to understand that they have to check the lineup card daily and that they don't get a GUARENTEED batting order position and it is pointless to take anything personally. If a player can't deal with being moved around in the lineup on a day to day basis. Look for a trade opportunity so he can be replaced by someone less fragile. You are only guaranteed to bat lead off once a game. 7 8 and 9 hitters get on base... if they can't they shouldn't be on the team. Correa led the team in OBP last year reaching base 3.9 times out of 10. Ryan Jeffers and Max Kepler got on base 3 times out of 10. It's a dial... not a switch. Wallner was one of our top On base guys last year. He's a great candidate for lead off.

Your method is much more efficient and accurate. Mine was more colorful but wrong. I was just trying to confirm Ash's number and I am not afraid to jam things together to make them fit in support of Ash. Now take that 47 add the attendance 4,933... add the average wind speed of 7 and finish by adding the area code of Tombstone Arizona and then turn the calculator upside down and it adds up to.

We didn't sign any innings eaters. Our starting pitching depth will be home grown for two years in a row. That's pipeline enough for me. Elite? It'd be nice... but average will get you through.