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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    No white smoke in this case. With no fanfare, he's just going to put on the traditional garb, a white cossock, zucchetto, 1st base mitt and walk out on to the field and start blessing us.
  2. Riverbrian
    It's both a Car and a Martini.
  3. Riverbrian
    I don't know what he will become. If the club chooses to give him opportunity... it'll be up to him to take advantage of it. However... After 1 season. Austin Martin is the least of my concerns. Just needs to add some slug and he'll be fine. If allowed to toss out the defense... I know some on this site will throw the defense right back in there after I toss it out... but if allowed to take the defense out for a moment. His performance at the plate was on level with Max Kepler last season. Better than Kirilloff, Farmer and Margot. He's the least of our problems. I have no problem with him in a Twins uniform this year. Now... while I have no problem... if he struggles this year... therefore creating a problem. Well... there are two options that can still be used on him so he doesn't have to stay and Margot the place up. Now... if you put the defense back in. I admit he that he hasn't displayed mastery at the multiple positions that he has played. Well... those players still can have value as long as they can play multiple positions at least OK... and he can do the... OK thing. It's up to him and that piece of wood in his hands. His bat will keep in the big leagues. If he can add some slug... he'll be just fine. Not meaning home runs per se. Hopefully, he can find some more gaps... add to the double and triple pile and he'll be just fine. Go get em Austin... I'm pulling for you. Even if you are not pulling pitches into the seats.
  4. Riverbrian
    The Dodgers thought highly enough of him to protect from the Rule 5 vultures. The Dodgers have certainly proven over the years that they know how to pick up a phone and make deals. It makes me very curious to why a DFA was necessary for the once top IFA signing and 14th ranked prospect in all of baseball as recently as two years ago. He is still only 23 years old. Perhaps the other 29 teams have an issue with giving this kid a 40 man roster spot. With all of that said. Maybe... just maybe... He could be a younger version of Joey Bart who was another ballyhooed prospect that went from a DFA with the Giants to taking advantage of injury opportunity in Pittsburgh... Bart rose from the dead... maybe Cartaya could do the same. Trade cost? Dodgers won't want a 40 man guy back so younger prospect not on the 40 man... plus whoever we would have to jettison from the 40 man to make room. I hate playing games with 40 man roster spots. However. For a catcher. Give me those dice.
  5. Riverbrian
    With the Trade of Gavin Lux and the DFA of Cartaya. The Dodgers roster sits at 39. Could me making room for Kershaw. Could be getting ready for a young pitcher from Japan who will make his decision after January 15.
  6. Riverbrian
    Miranda sitting against RHP. I get it... logical in consideration of how they do their business. Someone has to step aside for Julien. But... yet... Miranda Last year: .856 OPS against Right Handers. Ranked 4th on the team in that regard. Ranked 6th in AB's against RHP. And of course the less stable smaller sample of his 2024 work against the lefty. .573 OPS against Left Handers. Ranked 15th on the team in that regard. Ranked 4th in AB's against LHP. Regardless... Yeah... this is probably what the Twins will do with Miranda. Make him a short side specialist until injuries force him into more regular playing time. These are the types of things that happen when adherence to the platoon controls roster decisions.
  7. Riverbrian
    The Twins have always had a payroll that falls in a range with a bunch of other clubs. And all of the AL Central teams hang around primarily in that same range. While we worry about spending... they ain't spending either.
  8. Riverbrian
    Lots of platooning going on out there. But... Plenty of exposure or development as you and I are calling it is also occurring. It isn't just about the super-star Freemans of the world. It's a lot to expect Wallner or Larnach or Julien to become Freeman but is it unreasonable to hope that Wallner could become a Cronenworth? McMahon, Verdugo, Bleday, Naylor, Pasquatch, Schnauel. There are others. The line that you've drawn is fine because lines after to be drawn for starting points but your line is also influenced by the same things that will influence my list below. The numbers of left handed hitters on the roster, injury and availability due to when they were called up or traded for will heavily influence this list... However... I still think it has value so here are a list of pure left handed hitters (no switch hitters allowed) that were in top 9 in AB's against left handed pitchers for their club. Orioles: Gunderson (Led the Team) Cowser Mullins Red Sox: Duran (Led the Team) Devers Yoshida Abreu Cases was 10th (Lots of time on IL) White Sox: Benindendi Sheets Lopez Guardians: Gimenez J. Naylor Kwan B. Naylor Tigers Greene (Led the Team) Keith Torkelson Astros; Alvarez (Led the Team) Tucker Royals: Pasquatino Melendez Angels: Schanuel (Led the Team) Twins: Nobody Yankees: Soto (Led the Team) Verdugo Rizzo Athletics: Bleday Butler Mariners; Crawford Rays: B. Lowe Rangers: Seager (Led the Team) Smith Lowe Jays: Varsho Horwitz D-Backs: Carroll McCarthy Braves: Olson Harris Kelenic Cubs: Bellinger (Led the Team) Busch Crow-Armstrong Reds: Friedl Benson Rockies: McMahon Blackmon Jones (10th but hurt most of the year) Dodgers: Ohtani (Led the Team) Freeman (2nd on the team) Marlins: Chisolm Sanchez Brewers: Turang Yelich Frelick Mets; Nimmo McNeil Phillies: Schwarber (led the Team) Harper (2nd on the team) Stott Pirates: Cruz Padres: Cronenworth (Led the Team) Merrill Arraez Giants: Conforto Yaztremski Cards: Donovan Burleson Gorman Nootbaar Siani Nats: Abrams (Led the Team) Wood Garcia Winker Platooning is happening. Development is also happening. The Twins have taken it to a level that is beyond what any other team is doing. A. They either know something that nobody else knows B. Struggle to fully develop players C. Have purposely challenged the future for possible short term gains in the moment by strip mining nearly 50% of the active offensive roster for parts. D. Have possibly overweighted the data for left/left splits to the point that it controls roster decisions. E. They were extremely unlucky to have 4 left handed prospects with absolutely no hope of ever hitting a left handed pitcher.
  9. Riverbrian
    Touring around Roster Resource - 38 players are listed as projected closer. Main Closer or Co-Closer) Only Josh Hader is listed as main closing option solely. 4 other are listed in co-closer roles. Josh Hader - Astros Chapman - Red Sox (Co-Closer (2)) Horton - Tigers (Co-Closer (3)) Garcia - Rangers (Co-Closer (2)) Ferrer - Nationals (Co-Closer (2)) That's 5 out of 38 - 13%. Even less than the 25% of lefties in existence. Hader is the only guy to take on the Margot replacement you are searching for so you can yank Larnach in the 5th.
  10. Riverbrian
    All teams platoon. Varied levels team by team philosophy but all teams do at least some platooning. I've researched it quite a bit looking at all 30 teams and what I have concluded without a doubt. No team out of all 30... kills their left handed hitters like the Twins do. Nobody. I'm suggesting that Cleveland is playing the split correctly and the Twins are playing it wrong by garbage shopping to play the percentage point gain on individuals. I don't care what the team stats say. Cleveland could send up 9 players into the left handed batters box against the 75% of right handers in the game and that is playing the split correctly. Minnesota could send up 9 players into the batters box against the 25% of left handers in the game and that is playing it wrong. The Twins are just getting lost in individual matchups and losing the big picture. Advantage Cleveland!!! I'm suggesting... I'm begging... I'm hoping that Mr. Zoll reads this... or Falvey or Baldelli or anyone with influence. Instead of looking for a right handed hitter to replace Margot just to continue the killing of your young left handed prospects. Go look for a left handed hitter instead and bring the balance closer to attacking the 75% instead of the 25%. That 75 to 25% ratio is going to out distance the percentage point drop if Wallner has to face a left hander. Go get a left handed hitter... Don't care what position. Actually just get the best hitter you can find. But if you have to choose between right and left. Choose Left... And maybe just maybe if you end up with too many lefties in your lineup... Wallner can get that OPS against left handers up to .700 with exposure. Maybe even... Wallner takes it further and becomes the next Yordan as you mention. He certainly won't under the current system because he isn't allowed to. When it is reported that you are looking for a right handed hitting OF. We know what you are looking for. Stop looking for that. You are just scaring me and I'm trying to be supportive. And please... quit your doggone pinch hitting in the 5th. Save your bullets for the 8th or 9th when the sands of the hour glass are waning.
  11. Riverbrian
    They had more lefties than they could sit. Kwan, Naylor and Gimenez were probably considered the top 3 so they got more work in against lefties. For example: Just picking a game at random last year against lefties. Sunday, June 23 against Kikuchi and the Blue Jays. Cleveland won the game 6-5 Cleveland started: Kwan LF (L) Freeman CF (R) Ramirez DH (S) Naylor 1B (L) Fry C (R) Schneeman 2B (L) Rodriguez RF (R) Rocchio SS (S) Martinez 3B (S) Naylor (L) Brennan (L) Gimenez (L) Arias (R) were on the bench. That's 3 left, 3 switch, 2 Right and 3 left handers on the bench with 1 right hander. Kikuchi lasted 2 innings. Followed by Pop (R) 1.1 Innings Little (L) .2 Thee Trevor Richards (R) 2 innings Cabrera (L) 1 Green (R) 1 Despite Cleveland knocking out Kikuchi early and Toronto going right, left, Right, left to finish the game. Bo Naylor was the only pinch hit that Vogt utilized in what was a tight game all the way. It wasn't a match up pinch hit. David Fry was pulled after catching two innings due to an elbow injury while Kikuchi was still on the mound. When Bo Naylor entered the game in the 5 spot for Fry in the 3rd inning. Cleveland was L L L in the 4 5 and 6 spots with Kikuchi still in the game. Schneider would try to exploit that. In the 3rd with the Jays up 3 - 1. The lefty wall of 4,5 and 6 came up against Kikuchi. J. Naylor Doubled, B. Naylor Walked, Schneemann singled knocking Kikuchi from the game. Replaced by Pop. The lefty wall would come again in the 4th. Cleveland ahead 5-3. Schneider brings in lefty Brendan Little to face the wall with one out starting with switch Ramirez. Left Josh Naylor hits a home run off of him 409 feet to right center. The next time the lefty wall came around. Schneider brought in lefty Genesis Cabrera. Cabrera hung a zero but he did give up a double to Bo Naylor. This is one game... I'm not saying this is the way it always is in 162 games. I'm not saying that Vogt is different than Baldelli. I'm not saying that Vogt is better than Rocco. But... I am saying that having 6 left handed hitters on their roster didn't hurt them during the course of the season that they won the division. And it didn't hurt them against a total of 3 left handers in this specific game. (honestly picked at random). I am saying that instead of looking for a RIGHT HANDED OUTFIELDER... How about adding to your left handed hitting pile instead, Since we only have 3 of them and they are simply not allowed to face Kikuchi. You are doing good research. I appreciate it. You are on the RIGHT path looking LEFT like you are. You are one of the best.
  12. Riverbrian
    In the case of the Twins... All Left Handers would unfortunately be "most" accurate. We either can't develop left handed hitters like other teams can or we overweight the data point.
  13. Riverbrian
    Will probably need to swing a trade. He probably won't reach waivers. If he reaches waivers... he probably won't reach the Twins. Dodgers will want young prospects not on the 40 man. The Twins are hopefully on the phone.
  14. Riverbrian
    Could be. I can't say for sure. Whatever the reason... they did it for a year and then just stopped doing it. That's the only thing that I truly know. The reasoning is contained inside the walls of 1 Twins Way. They may have stopped because they felt the talent had improved enough to stop as you suggest. They added Lopez to the rotation and they didn't bring back the innings eaters of Bundy and Archer. That is a big talent adjustment in itself so yeah... maybe. However... Sonny Gray? He went from 4.98 Innings per start to 5.75 innings per start from 2022 to 2023. Sonny Gray for some reason was caught in that 2022 vortex of whatever was happening. A 3.08 ERA and 4.98 innings per start. The outsider view point which is all I have to work with. There was a rather noticeable consistency in 2022. Two times through the order. The Starter was gone... regardless of his performance. Pulled after facing #9 in the order. The starter wasn't allowed to face that lead off hitter a third time. It seemed almost robotic... or should I say... Systemic. They went from 408 PA's third time facing a hitter in 2022 to 804 in 2023. That number was 708 PA's in 2024. In 2024... a total of 74 starts were made by starting pitchers with ERA's higher than 4.09. (I choose 4.09 because Lopez came in at 4.08). It would be 106 starts if I used 4.00 as a nice even number line. We had young arms like SWR, Festa, Zebby and Varland tugging at those numbers. For Comparison. In 2022... The year of two times through the order restriction. 69 starts were made by Starters with an ERA over 4.09. 74 starts over 4.00 for the nice even number line. Could it be argued that the two times through the order philosophy was the reason that the Twins had 93 starts made by starters under 4.09. Could be... But they stopped doing it with an improved rotation in 2023 and kept not doing it with a rotation being backfilled by youth named SWR, Festa, Zebby and Louie Lou-Eye. Seems systemic to me... just like every single left handed hitter we have isn't good enough also seems systemic.
  15. Riverbrian
    I agree with you... It just might be that simple. They don't think Wallner, Larnach, Julien and Kirilloff are good enough. Actions speak louder than words. Their actions tell everyone that they don't think they are good enough. If they thought Wallner was good enough... Wallner would be one of the 5 players who have to face both hands. He would join Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Castro in that we think they are good enough group of 5. I've typed a thousand words in opposition but If they don't believe they are good enough and they clearly don't. I can simplify my response to that. Brent Rooker can't happen then. They can't miss on Rooker. They can't stick and stay with Margot as they keep sending him to the plate to keep the not good enough Larnach away and watch him wrap up his 0 for 30 pinch hitting into September. Julien can't make the opening day roster while Miranda doesn't. In other words: They better be right because the cost is fatal. This feeling of not good enough that they have, Is taking up half the available major league inventory and it is spilling over onto everything because half of that inventory is the bucket they have to reach into when the 5 players they think ARE good enough get hurt. The simple concept of rostering a Margot who isn't good enough because Wallner isn't good enough is taking up two roster spots with not good enough. Blame them for not developing beyond AAAA? I don't want to blame them at all. The job is hard... I'm not asking for anyone's head... But yeah I will. They have a choice. They can either develop hitters or they can sign them as free agents. I don't see them signing them in free agency so that kinda makes the development thing a little extra important. We can't commit half the inventory to not good enough. There has to be a path to a better cut of meat... We can't just Ham Hock our way through. So... The best they could do was develop a Wallner who can't do it himself, develop a Larnach who requires another player to handcuff to them. The best they could do is a team that PLATOONS more than any other team. Wait... that's not true... Brent Rooker was the best player they developed. And they think Wallner isn't good enough.
  16. Riverbrian
    0-10 That would have made them 12-14 vs right handed starters during that same time period. 12-14 isn't great but it's better than 0-10 when the chips are down. I know there is more game to play after starters leave the game so the whole story isn't being told... but 0-10 is still a story. In other words... it didn't work at the end of the year.
  17. Riverbrian
    Does anyone know the Twins record in 2024 when a left handed starter starts and their record when a right handed pitcher starts? I know there is a whole lot of game after the opening pitch so those numbers won't mean everything but they might at least suggest that it is or isn't working to a slight degree at least. I'm too lazy to look it up and to be honest... I'm not exactly sure what website would provide this information.
  18. Riverbrian
    Another thought for everyone's consideration. The Twins were able to throw a lineup together of 9 players in the right handed batters box last year against left handed pitching multiple times last year. That's impressive but the problem is that the Twins were not able to come anywhere close to that against right handed pitching. They could bat 5 at most out of the left handed batters box against right handed pitching. By chasing the platoon split against left handed pitching as hard as you did... You played it correctly and very very wrong at the same time. You hyper focused on the left hander when you should have focused on the right handers that make up 75% of the pitching population. If you want to play the platoon split. The 75% throwing right handed trumps the percentage points you gain from the 3 players that keep away from lefties. Cleveland last year with 6 left handed hitters and 4 switch hitters had the ability to place 9 batters in the left handed box against right handed pitching. They played the 75%. We played the 25%. Dear, Mr. Zoll, When you consider that we had a full lineup of hitters in the right handed batters box against the left hander last year. And when you consider that Falvey has announced publicly that you are looking for a right handed outfielder this year. YOU SCARE THE CRAP OUT OF ME. Sincerly, Riverbrian
  19. Riverbrian
    Kepler Career: 3170 PA's against right handers 1081 PA's against left handers. Career - 25 Percent of his AB's were against Lefties. In 2024: 317 PA's against right handers 82 PA's against left handers 2024 - 20 Percent of his AB's were against lefties. When Kepler was a young player still forming into whatever he was going to become. Kepler had 568 PA's as a 24 year old. 611 PA's as a 25 year old, 596 PA's has a 26 year old. Hard to get that many AB's if you are being platooned as strictly as Wallner and Larnach are being platooned. He wasn't. Kepler was granted the right to develop against the left handed pitcher at age 24, 25 and 26. Wallner and Larnach are not being granted the same development opportunity. Rocco did not start this extreme platoon strategy until Julien and Wallner arrived in 2023. That's when it reached a whole new level to the point that I'm complaining about. No team in MLB platoons as much as the Twins do. Kepler managed to avoid it until lefties got hurt or sent down which dropped the number of lefties on the roster forcing Kepler to be one. This year Julien and Wallner were sent down, Kirilloff was injured. During those times when a combination of those players were off the roster. Kepler got demoted to sitting so Margot could play against left handers. 2024... First game of the season. Against the Royals - left hander Cole Ragans. Kepler is starting in RF and batting 6th. Who wasn't in the game opening day against Ragans. Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff and 3 is the max amount to keep glued to the bench. They were one lefty hitter over stocked so Kepler faced the left hander. Margot at DH, Farmer at 2B and Santana at 1B started instead of Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff.
  20. Riverbrian
    In my opinion. Kepler typically wasn’t platooned throughout his career but he was pulled into a platoon spot last year when we developed lefty issue with Wallner and Julien. That’s the evil of this thing. If you have 3 left handed hitters and two short side right handers. One of the lefties avoids the platoon. Or 4 lefties and 3 short side right handers. Again… one of the lefties avoids the platoon. So when something happens to one of the left handed hitters. Injured or sent down. That extra left handed hitter that was avoiding the platoon… which was Kepler. He gets sucked down into the platoon role because you got these shortsiders on the roster that also need the cover and someone has to do it. This is what happened to Kepler last year. Wallner and Julien were sent down. Margot and Farmer did not. This is how this thing feeds on itself and becomes inescapable. And just a word of warning to those who believe that Erod or Jenkins can avoid this vortex. They can’t. Even if the Twins decide to not platoon Erod. He is stlll dependent on having enough platooning left handed hitters to keep him platoon free at all times during the season. He may start the year platoon free but when one of the other left handers go down. He will be sucked into it.
  21. Riverbrian
    Hopefully you were able to mention to him that I am personally counting on him this year. 😉😎😄 You can also mention that I also believe him in. I think I'm counting on the right guy. Now we just got to get management out of his way.
  22. Riverbrian
    Beautiful Post. The complication of Jeffers is well stated. They are chasing a moving target. I'll add a similar complication to your well done post. Miranda... the right handed hitting Miranda with much much better splits against right handed pitching last year. Extreme split differences. Is he better against right handed pitching or was it the small sample results of what he did against left handed pitching? I don't know but there were stretches last year sometimes lengthy stretches when Miranda would be in the lineup against left handers consistently and sat against right handers totally ignoring what was actually happening on the field. Will Miranda's splits in 2025 look like they did in 2024? I don't know but the sample size against left handers is certainly small enough that they could look completely different. How do you plan for that? Do you play Miranda against every body in 2025? Do you play Miranda in a short side role in 2025? Do you play Miranda against right handers only... like he is Trevor Larnach? Whatever you do... he gets set in cement for the year. If you treat Miranda like he is Larnach. His numbers suggest that you should. Now you need Farmer to platoon with Miranda. One year results... his future planned. As long as Farmer is on the roster... He needs that guy who can face right handers. You said it perfectly when you said this: "The answer to roster construction is simply roster the better hitters".
  23. Riverbrian
    I don't care if they trade for Kasper. I don't care if the budget restricts what we can do. I'm not calling for Rocco's head... I'm not calling for Falvey's head. I'm not asking for new ownership. I have one wish... I want them to stop doing this. Just like they stopped yanking starting pitching after two times through the order. I will say uncle eventually. I will judge this front office on development because money has always been a hurdle and I expect money to continue to be a hurdle. The team won't survive in the future without development. If the best they can do on the development side is develop a Wallner or Larnach or Julien that demands a Margot be attached to them. They will have failed at development if that is the best they can do. If they fail at development... then I'll demand that they increase payroll to sign players that other teams have fully developed because we are incapable of developing our own. If they continue to work with budget limitations that make it impossible to bring players in that other teams have fully developed I'll go back to asking that they fully develop players. At that point... I'll be aware of being bounced around like a tennis ball and I will eventually ask for new front office leadership that is more committed to development.
  24. Riverbrian
    Unfortunate Injuries and players playing well below what they were projected to perform is a constant thing and it doesn't go away. Very few teams have been able to pick 9 players and just ride with them for all 162 games to the playoffs. Each roster spot is gold. A player playing terribly doesn't kill you. It's the constant playing of the player playing terribly that kills you. This is an extremely important TRUTH. Do you want to get away from that player playing terribly? You can't get away from that player playing terribly because your options are the guy that you won't let hit left handers or the guy who can't hit right handers and that guy is only on the roster because you won't let the guy hit left handers. It's a death cycle with no escape or end.
  25. Riverbrian
    Julien pinch hit for before he even swung a bat because the Giants started with an opener. That's a manager who came from the Rays... the team that invented the opener... getting beat by the opener concept. If you want to know when I became as passionate about this subject. That was the moment. Yanking out Larnach in 5th inning with plenty of game to play... with so many different scenerios can still happen before the clock runs out... just so you have no choice but to bat Margot against the right handed closer in the 9th with the clock about to run out and the scenerio is basically do or die. CAN'T be Justified. Maybe if the bases are loaded in the 5th... Maybe you could justify it. But, the majority of these pinch hits are occurring regardless of the game situation... they are occurring with one out and nobody on base in the 5th inning with a 5 run lead. They are occurring simply because a left hander is being put in the game... the game situation doesn't matter. It's just done and done consistently.
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