Riverbrian

Boxes. I hate putting people in boxes. Baseball loves boxes.

Sauerkraut and Fish

We flavored all of the poles in Grand Forks either Cherry and Grape. It wasn't long after... A day in mid-December that teachers in our elementary schools were noticing that a lot of students were all of sudden having trouble speaking clearly.

I think it would be a mistake to declare Julien done. Not to turn this into a Rooker discussion but... Rooker got 213 PA's in 2021. Those 213 PA's were pretty much his first 213 PA's in the majors. He produced a .688 OPS to start his career which is a number that a string of vets have not reached in subsequent years. The Majority of his time in 2021 was spent in AAA producing a .937 OPS over 267 PA's and it should be pointed out that Cruz was traded at the 2021 deadline because the team was out of contention so we could take some time to provide opportunity to younger players without a pennant chase hanging over their heads. In 2022... Arraez, Buxton and Sanchez spent the majority of time at DH. Sano was toast. Our primary OF was Celestino, Kepler and Gordon. 2022 is another season out of contention that could be used to look at younger players. Rooker also not getting opportunity with San Diego and Kansas City despite producing a 1.044 OPS in AAA. He signs with Oakland for 2023 and only gets opportunity because the A's opened up the season with some injuries. They notice that he can all of sudden coming out of nowhere hit when his name is put in the lineup card. The Twins flat out missed. So did the Padres and Royals... but mostly the Twins because they were working with him the longest and they couldn't see what he could become. Rooker is a lesson in what we are still talking about today. Develop or Die! Brent Rooker was paid the minimum by the A's for .817 OPS and .927 OPS.

To be fair... Let's talk about a wildly successful Ty France. Let say for discussion sake that he goes nuts and produces a .900 OPS over 600 Plate Appearances and leads us to the playoffs. I hope he does that... it would certainly be a wonderful thing for the 2025 Twins... and for Ty France. After this type of year is complete. Can we afford to bring him back next year? Good Year... Bad Year... In Between Year. He's gone.

To add to the fine point that you are making about veteran rope. We rode Margot for the entire year last year. The result of his entire year with the Twins... his 2024 performance and his entire career has taken his off-season value to the level of? Still unsigned. We hung on to a guy that nobody wants 1 month later. Yet we can't seem to develop major league talent and those developing players still have value to other clubs. What are we doing?

We do agree although I'd say that the term prospects is limiting. Let's just go with pre-arb or minimally priced. France for example is no prospect but he costs 1 million... he is minimally priced. His presence doesn't move the financial needle. You can't take the France money and combine it with others of similar ilk to go for a bigger fish because it's barely over the minimum. A France that returns to his earlier form is a home run at that price point. If he doesn't... that's where the question becomes did we let France take opportunity because France won't be here in 2026. My general point is... The more pre-arb players that you have on your roster... the more money available to sign bigger free agents if you'd like. More Pre-arb opportunity... the better the odds of improving your pre-arb players for 2026 and 2027 and lessening the need to sign lower tier free agents in 2026 and 2027. It's how you get off this thing and be more like Milwaukee and Cleveland. We need to up our pre-arb numbers. We need to develop... that need will never go away... even if you are the Dodgers but yes... You and I both know... especially if you are the Twins, Brewers or Royals.

Yet the Dodgers might be the best at development out of all 30 teams.

Great Post I'll be cheering for everyone on our squad but the bottom line is this. I'm not a fan of pre-determination. I want fair competition for the playing time that's available and that will ultimately make the team the best it can be. I don't hate Harrison Bader. I don't hate Ty France. It's the system that has made me blue. No matter how many times a certain poster comes at me trolling along saying that I need to admit that I hate. I don't. I don't want to hate anyone. Harrison Bader is fighting for a career... it's important to him. Ty France is fighting for a career... it's important to him. Trevor Larnach is fighting for a career... it's important to him. Willi Castro is fighting for a career... it's important to him. Brent Rooker is fighting for a career. And all of those guys in AAA, AA, A+, A and rookie ball are fighting for careers. I assume these players are putting the work in to compete against the best in the world and the opportunity provided to them matters. Pre-determination kills the hard work. However... you can't roster everyone fighting for a career. They all are. After Family... it's the most important thing in the world to all of them... if it's not... good riddance. Hard decisions have to be made because of 26 and 40 man roster limitations. There is only one way to make these hard decisions. Let them compete for it! Pre-determination of who is going to get that limited opportunity only works if you the front office nailed it without error. The front offices of every club are not capable of nailing it before the season started. If Vazquez is going to OPS .575... He should be leaving the door wide open for someone else who is fighting for a career to take his playing time. If the front office knew that Vazquez was going to OPS .575 would they have offered him 30 million dollars? If Margot is going to OPS .646 then he should be leaving the door wide open for someone else who is fighting for a career to see if they can do better.. even if it just a little bit better. If Julien is going to OPS .615 he should understand that he is going to the minors to work on it. It's about fairness... that's how you should manage an organization full of players that are fighting for careers in the major leagues. Provide opportunity to those deserving of the most opportunity... not some pre-determined, see it through to the end long game strategy that is blown apart by injuries in April and eventually collapses in September. This cry for fairness also extends to our young left handed hitters. Wallner and Larnach deserve the same opportunities being offered to young left handed hitters with other organizations. I believe in Larnach... I believe he can help us win games... will we help or hinder him in his pursuit of a major league career? Does he really need to regret playing for Minnesota because of an organizational philosophy that doesn't exist in the other 29 clubs? Then follow the arbitration compensation progression. Trevor is making 2.1 million this year Arb 1. And he requires a 6.25 million handcuff. If he thrives in the role we are carving for him he will be due a raise in Arb 2. Now he is 4 to 6 million and still requires that 6.25 million handcuff. Let's say he thrives in the same role we are carving for him. Now he gets bumped to... Maybe over 10 million in Arb 3. Plus he requires that same handcuff. At what point does the platoon pair price itself out?

I appreciate the attempt to raise my spirits. I fear that I won't be rejoicing. According to roster resource - The current projected 26 man roster has: 2 switch hitters 3 left handed hitters 8 right handed hitters There is no way... the left handers don't sit against left handed pitching. We had 8 right handed hitters on the roster and the front office said they were looking for right handed hitters and they signed right handed hitters and we already had 8 right handed hitters on the roster when they said that and when they signed that. If Rocco surprises me... I will then rejoice... but then I will be wondering what the purpose of purposely targeting right handed hitters was all about.

My original post only consisted of the projected 26 man rosters as of February 17, 2025 based on projections on roster resource. I'm only doing that to show that teams are not dying with pre-arb players. Some are actually thriving. If they can thrive... why can't we? The discussion got expanded to 40 man by Nurse. Which is fine by me. In the case of the other 3 players that you won't consider. That's fine but I still think it's important to say yet in all three cases. You'd have to consider Corey Kluber. In your data over the past 20 years he was probably a big part of the positive WAR number that Cleveland accumulated via trade. Corey was in the Padres system and not ranked in their top 30 prospect list when acquired by Cleveland in a three team trade in 2010. He reported to AA. At that point... he is a player that "has not produced and not of consequence" which is the same boat that Camargo, Cartaya and Gasper are in right now. Kluber got rocked for 4 innings total in 2011. Made 12 starts in 2012 producing a 5.14 ERA. Finally arriving for good in 2013 3 years after the trade at age 27. Kluber ended up being a prime example of what you are advocating. What you are advocating is a fair point. He ended up being a large career WAR number that drives the data you have collected to make your point. There was a time when he had not produced and not of consequence. In regards to my point... I can't make my point that a pre-arb player can produce what we are paying for low tier free agents... or trading for lower tier players if they have not produced anything and of no consequence. I also care about the total production of the players that they produce. I also care about the total production of the players they buy. This kinda brings us back to the discussion we had last year around this time that went horribly wrong. Forget the names involved in that discussion. The question was at the time. Is it better to have 1 bigger name or is it better to divide that 1 bigger player into 4 lesser players? I honestly wasn't sure when I originally asked that question. I'm more sure now... I'd rather have the bigger name. But in order to have the 1 bigger name... the other roster spots will have to go to players of no consequence and then hope that they can turn into a Kluber so you don't have to sign a Bundy in the future.

He is counting off the 40 man roster. Which is fine to do because... trade acquisitions can be placed on the 40 man and not on the 26 man roster. David Fry on the 40 man and currently on the injured list is the only player that kinda fits that description so Cleveland is relying on a lot of homegrown talent on the farm. They have 13 players who are 3 years service time or beyond if you include the injured list. Kwan, Ramirez, Santana, Thomas, Hedges, McKenzie, Clase, Sewald, Junis on the projected 26 man leaving 17 Pre-Arb. Current Injured List: Beiber, Means, Hentes, Stephens... Once healthy... that will knock them down to 13. pre-arb assuming it is players with options sent down to make room for those 4. Milwaukee currently has 1 Arb Eligible player on the injured list that could knock them down to 15 pre-arb players assuming it is a player with options sent down to make room. To your point... Yes... trading for prospects is a viable way for teams to staff their roster. In light of the point you are making... and I believe you are making a good point. On the current 40 man... There are 5 current Twins pre-arb who were acquired via trade. Woods-Richardson, Martin, Camargo, Cartaya and Gasper. The Twins ain't doing much of that either or we've hit a severe lull between waves. It sure seems like the Twins are often times choosing lower tier vet over development either via trade or free agency.

Bingo! I actually only counted 4 but 5 makes the same point. 3 Amateur Free Agents 1 Non Drafted 1 Rule 5 The Rest were drafted and developed from 1st round picks to 33rd round picks. Cleveland currently has 24 Homegrown players on the 40 man. They ain't just dealing for them.

I was hoping that “each individual has their own story” from the previous post would show that I understand this. To further show that I understand what you are saying. I’ll add that the 14 players listed… 15 with Gibson. Some of them are at vastly different price points now so pre-arb no longer applies. What I’m hoping you notice is how some of them returned Lower Tier in some cases. Not much different that what we are signing. or 15 players reduced to 4... to check the attrition level.

You are right... I did miss the big guy from Missouri.

To add to my post. This is what we got for these 14 players on other rosters last year. Paddack, Pablo Lopez, Salas, Pagan, Mahle, Cave, Jorge Lopez, DeSclafini, Topa, Gabriel Gonzalez, Bowen, Kiner-Falefa (Sanchez, Urshela), Ronny Henriquez, Martin and Woods Richardson. 4 players for the current roster. (Paddack, Pablo Lopez, Martin and Wood-Richardson). 4 in the minors (Salas, Topa, Gonzalez and Bowen). Only Gonzalez is considered a higher level prospect. 8 gone with basically nothing returned. (Pagan, Mahle, Cave, J. Lopez, DeSclafini, Sanchez, Urshela, Henriquez). This could be a reason why we are shopping in the lower levels.

Thanks for the article... it provides perspective from a league standpoint. Agreed... It's much more complicated than my simplification of what I see as an issue. Front offices basically are doing rocket science level work and I'm taking out both the rocket and the science to just present bare bones numbers of the end result and there a bunch of paths to get to that end result. However, my simplified end result is still... the end result of all that rocket science no matter how we got here. Drafting well is only the beginning. There is also a whole lot of middle. That middle is development of the drafted player. The Twins may have been tied for 4th most with 26 drafted players on opening day rosters. But, the number was 12 of them on the opening day 2024 Twins roster. What happened to the other 14 and what did we get for them? Did we develop them and trade them or did we trade them while another organization developed them. Did we trade them because we had a fear of them? Felt safer with a vet acquisition? Many questions to be answered and each individual is an individual story. The end result is this... right now... we will break camp with 8 pre-arb players and therefore can't afford upper tier free agency so lower tier it is. That's how Ty France ends up being needed. The Brewers are going with 17 pre-arb players and that adds up to 12.9 million dollars. If the Twins are spending 130 million this year. 17 pre-arb players at 12.9 million dollars would leave them 117 million for the remaining 9 roster spots Which is an average of 13 million per. Now we can play at the upper levels of free agency a little but we are not doing that. 8 Pre-Arb at the minimum is 6 million dollars. At 130 million that leaves us 124 million to spend on 18 players for 6.9 million per and we are spending that 6.9 million per on lower tier. BTW... Rooker, Arraez, Steer, E-Strand, Rogers, Gil, Cano, Hendriks, Polanco, Garver, Rortvedt, Berrios and Wade Jr. are the other 14 playing elsewhere across the fruited plain. BTW... 1st Base development has been brought up and rightfully so. There are 5 potential 1st basemen on the above list of 14 and a catcher.

Agreed I only listed those who were drafted and developed in the first paragraph. The next paragraph was all about the inexpensive talent that other teams are utilizing regardless of how they were acquired and this is where the Twins are... well... inadequate. And I use the word inadequate relative to the budget constraints that the Twins have had since... well... forever. That way we can all compare and contrast with other clubs with similar budget constraints and even a couple that don't have budgets constrained to our level. There are three primary means of talent acquisition. Draft, Trade, Free Agency. The third option free agency is barely available to us... Due to budget limitations that are always going to be there. I don't care who the new owner is... the Twins are not going to leap into a 200 million plus payroll all of a sudden. With free agency reduced to 2nd and third tier options at money 4 to 10 times the MLB minimum. Draft development and development of who we trade for will have to compensate for the minimization of one of the three available talent acquisition options. If we can't afford to buy players developed by other organizations... we damn well better do better developing our own via drafted or traded for players. Whatever way those three roster staffing options are sliced up to construct each individual team rosters. The Twins have put themselves in a position of only 8 pre-arb players projected to make the 2025 roster out of camp. 3 of those 8 players will be arbitration eligible next year. Only 8 of them compared to Cleveland and Milwaukee alone will knock us out of the 1st tier if we wanted to take a shot at a 1st tier Carlos Correa type free agent. It doesn't have to be the budget knocking us out of contention for 1st tier... it's this. Now I wouldn't personally pay 12 million for Carlos Santana but the number of pre-arb players on the roster is why Cleveland (with 16 of them) can afford 12 million for Carlos Santana and we can't. This is also how Cleveland can afford him and still have a lower payroll than us. The pre-arb player is the key to everything. And to circle back to your point and your point is accurate in my opinion. I've been spinning my wheels trying to explain this to others, OK Kiersay is not good enough so we got to get 6.25 million for a lower tier FA. That's it then? We have no choice. We can't look beyond the borders of our roster? We can't acquire someone like Cleveland does? Like Milwaukee does? Like Detroit does? Doesn't have to be Jackson Holliday that we swing a deal for. Can't trade for a younger player if we can't produce a younger player? I doubt that... I think we can trade for younger players. I also doubt that we can't produce more pre-arb talent ourselves but if they can't... if they can't... and many here think they can't. Well... then we have to make some serious adjustments to our development program so we can because that isn't sustainable. We will crash and burn under our budget constraints that are not going to go away. Everyone on Twinsdaily needs to remember that it was just a couple of years ago that Willi Castro was acquired with a minor league deal and now we are paying him 6 million. Back in the Winter of 2022... I wouldn't be able to confidently stand on the rooftops of Twinsdaily and proclaim... WILLI CASTRO... that's the guy... let's go get Willi Castro. Yet... we stop at the waters edge of Martin and Keirsay and say... Nope... we have no other options... Must go get 2nd and 3rd tier roster filler and pay 4 to 10 times the minimum for that tier which is going to take us out of the top tier every single time. Willi Castro is one of the reasons why I'm not discussing specific names. How could any of us come up with Willi Castro December 2022 as an example for why you don't need to pay 11 million to Joey Gallo.

The number of home grown Twins isn't horrible. 7 offensive players projected to break camp with us that were drafted and developed by this front office. 7 is actually kind of impressive compared to other teams. However... As you astutely point out. The Elite player is missing from the offensive side and it's the elite player with years of control that every team in the world wants. Lewis was the 1st pick overall... injuries have probably held him back... We have high hopes for him but we should have high hopes because he was the 1st pick overall. Wallner, Larnach and Julien development have been capped (self imposed) to requiring a right handed compliment and the roster filling space this requires to compliment them. Jeffers and MIranda are decent enough to be better than that roster filler... and of course Lee... who we have those high hopes attached that go with a top ten overall pick but ??? Then if you look around the league. Projected 2025 Opening day Rosters: Cleveland 16 Pre-Arb Players Milwaukee 15 Pre-Arb Players Tampa 15-Pre-Arb Players Detroit 13 Pre-Arb Players Royals 12 Pre-Arb Players Astros 12 Pre-Arb Players Jays 10 Pre-Arb Players Twins 8 Pre-Arb Players These are teams that won games last year. You start to realize that development is not where it needs to be amidst budget constraints. Budget constraints amidst significant financial commitment to 2nd tier roster filler. You stop and think about Milwaukee and... you gotta ask... What is going on in Minnesota.

I'm going to try and keep my jaw from hitting the floor. Words are Words... Actions are actions. Managers need to be supportive when discussing his players... especially before anything has happened so supportive words are not surprising... although the no-platoon part is detail I wouldn't have expected. Rocco's words read like France is vital. France's contract sounds like he might or might not make the team. Actions will determine what these words meant. Gonna have to wait to find out how he is indeed deployed. Hope he does well. It's in my best interest that he does well.

Agreed... They have focused on boppers in the draft... It's kinda curious with that focus... why over the past 6 Years since Mauer left. Our version of Power Hitting Bob hasn't shown up... or even on the horizon.

I agree... I'm also torn. When Chief asked me why I'm not demanding a new front office... All I can say is I'm getting close. Everybody I've ever known in life is good at some things and not so good at others things. Baby Bathwater... that kinda thing. I think this front office has been a vast improvement over what Terry Ryan was doing. We are not signing innings eaters because the farm is starting to produce arms. That's huge and it will pay off in the long run. Ultimately, I'm going to judge this front office on development and development alone. Development fills spaces... development provides trade value. development provides more money to sign bigger and better. What I see them doing with our young position players right now is strip mining them for parts. That just continues the cycle. I guess... Basically... I don't want to join the millions and millions of fans who are calling for their head coach to be fired. Right now... I just want them to stop doing this specific thing.