Riverbrian

Wallner's arm is a pretty significant tool. It might be better than his power.

Players changing positions is quite common. It is necessary to move players around when things occur. Necessity is the mother of invention. A 162 game schedule requires adjustments. We should really quit trying to set it and forget it... because the baseball grind makes setting it and forgetting impossible.

Don't get me wrong. He's making the minimum... I'd take him... maybe he turns into what he is supposed to turn into. Maybe he won't... But, what I won't do... is trade a young player that has demonstrated some potential like Julien, Miranda or Wallner for him.

Ok... I get it. You believe that Festa or the other interesting young starters are being blocked but Julien won't amount to anything. I didn't realize that this was a completely subjective discussion. I was trying to be systemic but I realize that isn't going to resonate with you while you are merely looking at the players you want to chuck out the window. Casey Blake is all you can think of? Are you only watching Twins. I know you are aware of Brent Rooker because we discussed him at length but not a late bloomer with the Twins so... no to Brent Rooker. If Rooker doesn't count... then I assume Nelson Cruz doesn't count either? How about Josh Donaldson? How about Jose Bautista? Jeff Kent? Jorge Posada? Justin Turner? JD Martinez? Max Muncy? Scherzer? Hey what about Joe Nathan? How about David Ortiz? He arrived in Boston at age 27. Do they have to be old... Can we consider the under rated prospects who are young? Mitch Garver was never a top ten ranked prospect. Jose Altuve or Jose Ramirez were not players that Keith Law sang songs about. Goldschmidt? Jacob Degrom? Kluber? Blackmon? Do they have to be superstars to be worth the effort? Will an out of nowhere Cedric Mullins suffice. Tommy Pham? Chris Taylor? How about if they just OPS .700 in their rookie year instead of paying a 35 year old Mark Canha 7 million for the same. Let's forget all of those names... there are many more despite severe limited opportunity because the late bloomer or low ranked guy gets one shot while the top ranked prospects get 50 shots at it. But... let's forget all of those names. Let's just do the math on the point I'm making. Just considering the 26 man and not the 40 man. 26 guys averaging 5 million AAV in any given year is a 130 million payroll. Carlos Correa is going to be paid 37 million this year. That's going to take 8 pre-arb players at league minimum just to get you back to that 5 million per player average in that given year. Correa, Lopez, Buxton and Vazquez combine to 84 Million this year. That leaves 22 spots to fill with the remaining 46 million. Now how many pre-arb guys do you need? The Twins have a budget... they have always had a budget. Go ahead... declare Julien Dead. You might be right but Julien with a .690 OPS at the minimum instead of Mark Canha with a .700 OPS at 7 million is your Chris Paddack example. Paddack might make 20 starts with a 4.78 ERA... we are better off with Festa making 20 starts with a 5.14 ERA. I know that Chia Pet can see it. I know the Rally Goat can see it. Nicksaviking can see it. Develop or Die. We are not signing Alonso. Every pre-arb player on the roster makes money available to go bigger. Every minimum paid player is about 5 million extra that can be applied to make a bigger offer to someone else. There are a bunch of pre-arb options who just might out perform or perform similar or even perform just a tish below what Mark Canha will bring to the table. The Rookies, 2nd year and third year guys are the key to everything!

I agree. And 2 of those will be in the minors waiting for Paddack to get injured or fail to the point that Paddack is released and the Twins haven't released Guys with money on their deals when they fail... they tend to stick around for the entire year. My whole point is this: Develop or Die! The more capable players that we can roster making the minimum gives you money left over that can be spent on higher end players. I am not afraid of Rookies... they can be sent down. I'm afraid of Vazquez and Margot who won't be sent down. Wasting the money on players making 3 million here and 4 million who are producing what the rookies will produce is just creating the same problem next year and the year after that. You've named 4 guys who you think will be better than the 7.5 spent on Paddack. You could be right... you may be wrong but... you did save 7.5 million that can be spent on the upper end if you combine with the other 3 million here and 4 million here guys.

You want someone to take Paddack's 7.5M. The reason you want that 7.5M off the books is so you can spend it on someone worth a damn... is because you think Paddack is over priced for the production you expect him to produce. If he is overpriced for the production that you expect him to produce. You have to find a team that is going to disagree with you and say... Ahh... That DJL44 is wrong. Let me trade for Paddack and that 7.5m. After you find that team that disagrees with your assessment for Paddack. Then you got to find that guy for 12.5 that won't become the next Paddack to avoid turning to those rookies that scare you. And the only way off this merry-go-round is to actually find a guy making the minimum who is better than Paddack. Trying to buy players who are DEVELOPED by other teams with no money available isn't a sustainable option.

It's not a false argument... It's a point that needs full consideration. Because crappy vet stays with the club all year. Crappy rookie can be sent down. Crappy vet costs 4 million and crappy rookie costs the minimum. Crappy Vet will be gone next year and requires a replacement which could be a crappy rookie that wasn't crappy. Someone decent? I have no problem with someone who performs like Donovan Solano did because he at least helped us that year. But even Donovan was gone after the season so future was sacrificed to a certain degree. You and I both know that Pete Alonso isn't coming. That's a whole nother discussion. So... the team has to develop Pete Alonso but we are busy with Solano and his band the endless string of one year contracts. While you are declaring minimum salary guys dead before arrival.

First off... Projections are projections. Some of those guys will do better and some of those guys will do worse. If the projections are accurate... The GM job is going to be tremendously easy. But... OK... Let's say the projections are right on the money. Take it to the bank. You have just listed 5 guys who are projected to out perform Margot and Vazquez at the plate. Two of those guys on the roster for 1.6 million as opposed to 14 million. Go take that 12.4 million you saved and get somebody to knock Keirsay's .641 off your list.

AAA depth that won't perform according to you is not depth. They are just jerseys with names on the back of them. They are just going to be called up and slaughtered so what's the point. We will sign another Margot instead and keep doing it year after year. Manual Margot has a .626 OPS last year. Kept his job all year. Here are a list of rookies (over 100 AB's) who had a higher OPS than Margot had in 2024. Blue Jays: Spencer Horwitz Leo Jimenez Orioles: Colton Cowser Rays: Junior Caminaro Red Sox: Ceddane Rafaela Wilyer Abreu David Hamilton Yankees: Austin Wells Guardians: Daniel Schneeman Jhonkensy Noel Angel Martinez Kyle Manzardo Tigers: Colt Keith Wenceel Perez Parker Meadows Justin Henry-Malloy Trey Sweeney Twins: Austin Martin A's: Kyle McCann Angels: Nolan Schanuel Astros: Joey Loperfido (Also on the Blue Jays List of Rookies) Rangers: Wyatt Langford Evan Carter Marlins: Otto Lopez Connor Norby Nationals: Jacob Young James Wood Jose Tena Andres Chaparro Dylan Crews Brewers: Jackson Chourio Joey Ortiz Cards: Maysn Winn Pedro Pages Cubs: Michael Busch Pete Crow-Armstrong D-backs: Blaze Alexander Dodgers: Andy Pages Giants: Tyler Fitzgerald Jung Ho Lee Padres: Jackson Merrill Rockies: Hunter Goodman I believe that is 42 total Here's a list of rookies (over 100 AB's) who didn't have a higher OPS than Margot had in 2024. Blue Jays: Addison Bargar Joey Loperfido Orioles: Jackson Holliday Rays: Curtis Mead Yankees: Ben Rice Guardians: Brayan Rocchio Royals: Nick Loftin Twins: Brooks Lee White Sox: Dominic Fletcher Brooks Baldwin A's: Max Schuemann Darell Hernaiz Brett Harris Nationals: Trey Lipscomb Cards: Michael Siani Victor Scott Reds: Noelvi Marte Giants: Grant McCray Rockies: Jordan Beck I believe that is 19 total So if you read through the entire list. That is a total of 60 Rookies (Loperfido took 2 spots) who received at least 100 AB's in 2024. 41 out of 60 were better than Margot. That is 68%. I'll take those odds at the major league minimum opposed to 4 million spent on below average production. Actually I would take those odds if it was 33% just for the possible discovery of someone who might help us out next year. Now let's look at that number 60. That's how many Rookies got at least 100 AB's last year. 439 Players were given at least 100 AB's in the majors in 2024. So... 14% were Rookies. 14% is the opportunity afforded to Rookies to clear the low bar of 100 AB's while Manual Margot stays on the club all damn year. There were 86 Players with less AB's than Margot got and a lower OPS than Margot produced. There were 20 Players with more AB's than Margot got and a lower OPS than Margot produced. Only 2 were rookies. That's 106 players - 19 of those players are rookies. 18% of those sucking below the Margot line were rookies. That means 82% of those worse than Margot were not rookies. Take that with the 68% of Rookies performing better than Margot. And... Well... I'm not afraid of Rookies and I really don't understand why you are.

Let's just cut them all then. They serve no purpose. Their value will never increase.. you have declared it. Done deal. OK... You've just cleared five 40 man roster spots. At least three current 26 man roster spots. You've got 5 million to work with. Bring in 5 guys.

5 Million on an innings eater or Short Side platoon bat. Or two of them. Please... No... Don't do it. Just take that 5 million and keep it in your pocket until the trade deadline. I honestly don't believe that a Bundy type or Margot type is going to bring this thing home for us. If the club is in the running maybe we can get a decent addition for the stretch run. Two years in a row of nothing added at the deadline while the team is in contention has to STOP. Waiting for the deadline... that will give the club ACTUAL real time health and performance data. It will give the club a chance to figure out what they ACTUALLY really need based upon ACTUAL health not projected health. The club can assess ACTUAL performance not projected performance. The club can look at the actual July context. Buxton's hurt again... We could use some CF help for this contending team. Let's take on the rest of that Luis Robert contract and make a deal with the White Sox. I got this 5 million right here... let's go find a couple million more and get it done. Why blow the money now for an innings eater or short sider? If the club isn't in the running at the trade deadline. Sell... there are not many sellers these days. Might get some value out of a lack of sellers market. Anything but the continued kicking the can down the road year after year looking for the next Margot instead of looking for the next capable player making the minimum. No more filling holes with below average hole filler, no more keeping the door shut on developing hole filler because we keep thinking the below average hole filler is just fine.

I'd take him for one reason and one reason only. Adding left handed hitting so the number of left handed hitters on the 26 man exceed what Rocco can put to sleep against left handed pitching. If the Twins broke camp with 7 left handed hitters. I'd be just fine with that.

I believe that the left vs left split is real. So... Yeah... You are right... I believe that his OPS would come down a bit if he was ALLOWED to face left handed pitching. How much? 75% of pitching is right handed... so... not a lot... but yeah it would probably come down a bit. As far as feasting on league average or worse pitching? Someone can try to produce some stats to try and prove it... I'm not going to research it because I believe that all major league hitters will face similar percentages of league average or worse pitching. The 2023 Playoffs? He had 12 PA's. 0 Hits and 3 Walks. Freddie Freeman had 12 PA's. 1 Hit and 2 Walks in 2023. In 2022... Freddie Freeman had a post season OPS of 1.286 in 18 PA's. He was back to quite helpful last year. Michael Harris was terrible in 2023 and 5 for 8 last year. In 2023 - Marcus Semien struggled against the Astros and was a force to be reckoned with against the D-Backs. Tommy Pham was horrible against the Phillies and couldn't be stopped against the Rangers. Small Sample Size... Yadda Yadda. I'd personally hate to hang a guy over his first 12 playoff PA's. I'd personally hate to hang a guy over 12 PA's in April, May, June, July, August or September.

Agree with you completely. I'll add to your thoughts. You don't want to intentionally depreciate your asset. Trading him would become increasingly difficult if he is consistently bypassed. I agree with you 100% However. The team is obviously trying to go a different direction. If he impedes that... you have two problems instead of one. All teams have bad money on the books. That's one problem. Letting that bad money stand in your way... that's a second problem.

Content has to be created. Thin Air is all they have to work with.

As I read the Arenado staying in St. Louis domino dilemma expressed by Bernie Miklasz. I had one thought. That's a lot being attached to Arenado. That's turning Arenado into a roster construction bottleneck and a cannonball through Cardinal short and long range planning, Then I had another thought. They may be struggling to trade Arenado but that still doesn't mean they have to just sit there and allow him to be a cannonball to your hopes and dreams because they couldn't trade him, If you want Gorman or Donovan to play 3B... Play Gorman or Donovan at 3B. Easy Peasy. Arenado is reduced to being an expense issue. Being just an expense issue is much better than being an expense and a cannonball through tomorrow.

Margot was a separate transaction. Santana was a separate free agent signing. However... both players would fit into "netted enough money so that the Twins could..." bucket. Its all roster building from Jan 29, 2024 on and all connected by the final product leaving Fort Myers. In regards to the 2024 roster. At the time... I questioned if it was smart to take one big piece (Polanco) and turn him into 4 smaller pieces (DeSclafini, Topa, Santana and Margot). Which in my opinion... is what basically happened. I wasn't even being declarative at the time... I was just questioning weather it was smart to move one big piece for multiple smaller pieces. I remember it vividly because just questioning, not being declarative just questioning one big piece for 4 smaller pieces led to a certain poster feeling the need to explain over and over and over and over and over again how Cleveland and Oakland built their rosters. I'm ready to be declarative now. It was a mistake to trade one big piece for multiple smaller pieces. I recognize that one of the smaller pieces Santana performed much better than big piece Polanco in 2024. DeSclafini, Topa and Margot were negatives. The negatives... made it a mistake.

Yeah... That would be trading someone who is getting something done for someone that you hope might get something done and is available because the team doesn't think he's going to get something done.

Groucho Marx said "I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member". If the Tigers are willing to trade Torkelson to the Twins... you don't want him. Supposedly a 22 year old Colt Keith has replaced him as the primary 1st base dude. Colt Keith only has one season of below average .689 OPS... hardly a known quantity. Compared to Torkelson with a career .693 OPS and they give up. Torkelson hasn't reached arbitration yet at age 25... so he costs the minimum and he has an option remaining. In other words... they don't have to trade him. Trading him means they give up. Trading him to a division rival means they don't believe the Twins can fix him either. Because if the Twins can fix him... He'd be playing up to the potential of a 1ST OVERALL PICK IN THE DRAFT in their division. If the Twins can fix him... why can't the Tigers? You don't give up Wallner for that.

Not developing rookies or signing capable free agents are the things that non-contenders do.

It's a tough spot for Rocco because Max Kepler is no longer here to tell Rocco that he won't play CF. Tough Tough Problem. Hey... That defensive wizard Gilberto Celestino is looking for work at age 25.

Find something like... I don't know... moving Royce Lewis to 2B in September? Out of the blue? 😉

Like a plumber... Like a bouncer at a popular night club. Like shaking an etch-o-sketch. Roster building is all about clearing lines.

The Twins already have too many players who they need to allow to improve against LHP. 😉

Good Pitching... they should invest in. Innings eaters... they should not spend a dime.