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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    True... He was DFA'd. However, the Dodger system over flows much better stuff than other systems. If you got to eat out of the garbage can. Don't go to my house... Go to Paris Hiltons place.
  2. Riverbrian
  3. Riverbrian
    Huge News - I don't know anything about Vazquez... but I don't care. This is a very necessary dice roll in consideration of our catching depth system wide. Cartaya may go down in flames because he's been a rolling stone downward to get him to this price point but, they got to give him every opportunity to become something of value... so toss them dice. The ceiling is potentially huge for the Twins, the floor is a temporary waste of a 40 man roster spot. In the meantime, 2026 is going to need a catcher on the roster. Cartaya has just become a Twins player who will get a decent sized portion of my fingers crossing, wishing on a shooting star allotment.
  4. Riverbrian
    After listening to Jeremy Zoll. Barring a trade... Like for example someone really important to us to Boston for Cases. I don't see many fantastic options for the Twins to add at 1B. So I'm almost ready to assume that Miranda and Julien will pair up to handle the position with the Gaspers and Fords and Severino's to slide into a 1B role if necessary... when necessary. It's sure sounding like the Twins are planning on Lee at 3B and it sounds like Lewis will at least try to become our 2B in 2025. I really don't believe that Keirsay will break camp with the club because of his left handedness so that leaves Helman as that last 26th man option if they do nothing. I don't think the Twins will allow Helman to fill that role. I'm still guessing that they will continue on the search for RH hitting OF and they will find some cheap Connor Joe to bounce Helman down. Leaving the opening day roster at: Jeffers, Vazquez at Catcher (2) Correa SS, Buxton, CF, Lewis 2B, Lee 3B and Castro (LF plus other places as needed) as the primary (5) that play every day apart from maintenance days. Wallner RF, Larnach DH (and LF), Julien 1B as the full allotment of platooned left handed hitters. And Miranda, Martin and RH OF type addition as the full of allotment of short side handcuffs to Wallner, Larnach and Julien. There's your 13 coming North barring injury. When injury starts to occurs, I'd imagine that Miranda would be the first player to gain the extra AB's. If an injury occurs to Buxton - Miranda goes full time 1B. Julien and Helman would pair at DH, Larnach would pair with Martin in LF and Castro slides to full time CF. If an injury occurs to Correa - Lee slides to SS, Lewis goes full time 3B, Miranda full time 1B while Julien and Helman pair at 2B. If an injury occurs to Lewis - Miranda goes full time 1b while Julien and Helman pair at 2B. If an injury occurs to one of our left handers - I'd guess that Erod is the call up... not Keirsay. Erod would simply slide into whatever platoon role is vacated. This is what I'm thinking right now. I will allow for the off-season to conclude so the front office still has the opportunity to surprise me.
  5. Riverbrian
    I don't see the virtue in becoming what the Padres are currently at the catcher position. I don't see the virtue of digging the same hole that you are helping the Padres fill. This is targeting the Padres for a trade because they have need and ignoring that we will be creating the same need for ourselves but even worse. These trade ideas would leave the Padres with Jeffers and Campusano while the Twins have Vazquez and ??? IMO... I'd take Campusano over Vazquez so they would have two catchers better than anything we currently have. I do not recommend trading a catcher until the Twins show that they can develop a replacement. The Twins will not show development of a replacement as long Camargo sits and watches Vazquez OPS .575 One last thought on this whole mess. Ryan Jeffers's trade value was sky high following the 2023 season. He was one of the best hitting catchers in the game with an OPS of .858 that year. Last off-season was the time trade Jeffers. Trading him for financial reasons this off-season after a drop to .732 OPS in 2024. That would show everyone that the front office has the inability to time the market... Selling Low instead of Selling high. By waiting until this off-season to trade him, not only will you get less for him but you will also force yourself to over pay for a catcher the following year because Vazquez will also be gone leaving you with ZERO. This is why Camargo on the bench watching Vazquez OPS .575 last year was a huge deal. This increases the odds that the Twins spend payroll they don't have to acquire another Vazquez type talent. If the Twins have to move a catcher this year... Vazquez is the only one that makes sense because he is a drain on resources and he can't hit. While acquiring Vazquez will make very little sense to the other teams because he is a drain on resources and he can't hit. They need to let Camargo show that he can be a viable option in 2026 by being a viable option in 2025. I'm not to comfortable with that after they just by-passed 2024 for unchallengeable, irreplaceable .575 OPS. They have chosen to put all of their catcher eggs into the Jeffers Vazquez basket. I'm afraid that they must lie in the broken yolks of the basket they made.
  6. Riverbrian
    I spend a lot of time looking at these lists from past years. As a result of looking at such lists from the past for all 30 teams... It makes me worry less about current lists. I've concluded that there doesn't seem to be a canyon separating players in the top 5 and players outside the top 10. That 2021 Blue Jays class was highly regarded in 2021. Only Catchers Kirk and Moreno have cemented MLB jobs. The Rays farm was considered top of the pile that year. Wander Franco obviously went horrible for non-baseball reasons but beyond that. Arozerena 3rd ranked prospect in the system, McClanahan 7th ranked and Joe Ryan 14th ranked in the system are the only players with a job 2025 job locked up. Same Year 2021 Twins: Balazovic was ranked 4th, Sabato 7th, Celestino 9th, Cavaco 10th. On the other side. Rooker 13, Wallner 14, Miranda 20. Ober 25. Things will change Develop or Die
  7. Riverbrian
    Trades are usually equal when made. All GM's know the value of their players. Value disparity typically doesn't exist at the time of trades. Trades are won and lost later based on which club does a better job increasing the value of the player or players they acquire. So far so good with SWR. On the offensive side. Will Austin Martin be strip mined for parts? WIll Austin Martin make the team as a 25 year old short sider? WIll Austin Martin be waiting for injury to someone else just to shed the short side constraints only to return to short side duty when the injured return? I believe... Yes he will be... is the answer to all of the above questions. This will leave Austin Martin with no path to significant value. Even if Austin Martin has a decent showing when the constraints are shed due to injury to someone else. He will be returned to short side duty because somebody always has to handle the short side. If the Twins are going to win this trade... It will be up to SWR.
  8. Riverbrian
    No white smoke in this case. With no fanfare, he's just going to put on the traditional garb, a white cossock, zucchetto, 1st base mitt and walk out on to the field and start blessing us.
  9. Riverbrian
    It's both a Car and a Martini.
  10. Riverbrian
    I don't know what he will become. If the club chooses to give him opportunity... it'll be up to him to take advantage of it. However... After 1 season. Austin Martin is the least of my concerns. Just needs to add some slug and he'll be fine. If allowed to toss out the defense... I know some on this site will throw the defense right back in there after I toss it out... but if allowed to take the defense out for a moment. His performance at the plate was on level with Max Kepler last season. Better than Kirilloff, Farmer and Margot. He's the least of our problems. I have no problem with him in a Twins uniform this year. Now... while I have no problem... if he struggles this year... therefore creating a problem. Well... there are two options that can still be used on him so he doesn't have to stay and Margot the place up. Now... if you put the defense back in. I admit he that he hasn't displayed mastery at the multiple positions that he has played. Well... those players still can have value as long as they can play multiple positions at least OK... and he can do the... OK thing. It's up to him and that piece of wood in his hands. His bat will keep in the big leagues. If he can add some slug... he'll be just fine. Not meaning home runs per se. Hopefully, he can find some more gaps... add to the double and triple pile and he'll be just fine. Go get em Austin... I'm pulling for you. Even if you are not pulling pitches into the seats.
  11. Riverbrian
    The Dodgers thought highly enough of him to protect from the Rule 5 vultures. The Dodgers have certainly proven over the years that they know how to pick up a phone and make deals. It makes me very curious to why a DFA was necessary for the once top IFA signing and 14th ranked prospect in all of baseball as recently as two years ago. He is still only 23 years old. Perhaps the other 29 teams have an issue with giving this kid a 40 man roster spot. With all of that said. Maybe... just maybe... He could be a younger version of Joey Bart who was another ballyhooed prospect that went from a DFA with the Giants to taking advantage of injury opportunity in Pittsburgh... Bart rose from the dead... maybe Cartaya could do the same. Trade cost? Dodgers won't want a 40 man guy back so younger prospect not on the 40 man... plus whoever we would have to jettison from the 40 man to make room. I hate playing games with 40 man roster spots. However. For a catcher. Give me those dice.
  12. Riverbrian
    With the Trade of Gavin Lux and the DFA of Cartaya. The Dodgers roster sits at 39. Could me making room for Kershaw. Could be getting ready for a young pitcher from Japan who will make his decision after January 15.
  13. Riverbrian
    Miranda sitting against RHP. I get it... logical in consideration of how they do their business. Someone has to step aside for Julien. But... yet... Miranda Last year: .856 OPS against Right Handers. Ranked 4th on the team in that regard. Ranked 6th in AB's against RHP. And of course the less stable smaller sample of his 2024 work against the lefty. .573 OPS against Left Handers. Ranked 15th on the team in that regard. Ranked 4th in AB's against LHP. Regardless... Yeah... this is probably what the Twins will do with Miranda. Make him a short side specialist until injuries force him into more regular playing time. These are the types of things that happen when adherence to the platoon controls roster decisions.
  14. Riverbrian
    The Twins have always had a payroll that falls in a range with a bunch of other clubs. And all of the AL Central teams hang around primarily in that same range. While we worry about spending... they ain't spending either.
  15. Riverbrian
    Lots of platooning going on out there. But... Plenty of exposure or development as you and I are calling it is also occurring. It isn't just about the super-star Freemans of the world. It's a lot to expect Wallner or Larnach or Julien to become Freeman but is it unreasonable to hope that Wallner could become a Cronenworth? McMahon, Verdugo, Bleday, Naylor, Pasquatch, Schnauel. There are others. The line that you've drawn is fine because lines after to be drawn for starting points but your line is also influenced by the same things that will influence my list below. The numbers of left handed hitters on the roster, injury and availability due to when they were called up or traded for will heavily influence this list... However... I still think it has value so here are a list of pure left handed hitters (no switch hitters allowed) that were in top 9 in AB's against left handed pitchers for their club. Orioles: Gunderson (Led the Team) Cowser Mullins Red Sox: Duran (Led the Team) Devers Yoshida Abreu Cases was 10th (Lots of time on IL) White Sox: Benindendi Sheets Lopez Guardians: Gimenez J. Naylor Kwan B. Naylor Tigers Greene (Led the Team) Keith Torkelson Astros; Alvarez (Led the Team) Tucker Royals: Pasquatino Melendez Angels: Schanuel (Led the Team) Twins: Nobody Yankees: Soto (Led the Team) Verdugo Rizzo Athletics: Bleday Butler Mariners; Crawford Rays: B. Lowe Rangers: Seager (Led the Team) Smith Lowe Jays: Varsho Horwitz D-Backs: Carroll McCarthy Braves: Olson Harris Kelenic Cubs: Bellinger (Led the Team) Busch Crow-Armstrong Reds: Friedl Benson Rockies: McMahon Blackmon Jones (10th but hurt most of the year) Dodgers: Ohtani (Led the Team) Freeman (2nd on the team) Marlins: Chisolm Sanchez Brewers: Turang Yelich Frelick Mets; Nimmo McNeil Phillies: Schwarber (led the Team) Harper (2nd on the team) Stott Pirates: Cruz Padres: Cronenworth (Led the Team) Merrill Arraez Giants: Conforto Yaztremski Cards: Donovan Burleson Gorman Nootbaar Siani Nats: Abrams (Led the Team) Wood Garcia Winker Platooning is happening. Development is also happening. The Twins have taken it to a level that is beyond what any other team is doing. A. They either know something that nobody else knows B. Struggle to fully develop players C. Have purposely challenged the future for possible short term gains in the moment by strip mining nearly 50% of the active offensive roster for parts. D. Have possibly overweighted the data for left/left splits to the point that it controls roster decisions. E. They were extremely unlucky to have 4 left handed prospects with absolutely no hope of ever hitting a left handed pitcher.
  16. Riverbrian
    Touring around Roster Resource - 38 players are listed as projected closer. Main Closer or Co-Closer) Only Josh Hader is listed as main closing option solely. 4 other are listed in co-closer roles. Josh Hader - Astros Chapman - Red Sox (Co-Closer (2)) Horton - Tigers (Co-Closer (3)) Garcia - Rangers (Co-Closer (2)) Ferrer - Nationals (Co-Closer (2)) That's 5 out of 38 - 13%. Even less than the 25% of lefties in existence. Hader is the only guy to take on the Margot replacement you are searching for so you can yank Larnach in the 5th.
  17. Riverbrian
    All teams platoon. Varied levels team by team philosophy but all teams do at least some platooning. I've researched it quite a bit looking at all 30 teams and what I have concluded without a doubt. No team out of all 30... kills their left handed hitters like the Twins do. Nobody. I'm suggesting that Cleveland is playing the split correctly and the Twins are playing it wrong by garbage shopping to play the percentage point gain on individuals. I don't care what the team stats say. Cleveland could send up 9 players into the left handed batters box against the 75% of right handers in the game and that is playing the split correctly. Minnesota could send up 9 players into the batters box against the 25% of left handers in the game and that is playing it wrong. The Twins are just getting lost in individual matchups and losing the big picture. Advantage Cleveland!!! I'm suggesting... I'm begging... I'm hoping that Mr. Zoll reads this... or Falvey or Baldelli or anyone with influence. Instead of looking for a right handed hitter to replace Margot just to continue the killing of your young left handed prospects. Go look for a left handed hitter instead and bring the balance closer to attacking the 75% instead of the 25%. That 75 to 25% ratio is going to out distance the percentage point drop if Wallner has to face a left hander. Go get a left handed hitter... Don't care what position. Actually just get the best hitter you can find. But if you have to choose between right and left. Choose Left... And maybe just maybe if you end up with too many lefties in your lineup... Wallner can get that OPS against left handers up to .700 with exposure. Maybe even... Wallner takes it further and becomes the next Yordan as you mention. He certainly won't under the current system because he isn't allowed to. When it is reported that you are looking for a right handed hitting OF. We know what you are looking for. Stop looking for that. You are just scaring me and I'm trying to be supportive. And please... quit your doggone pinch hitting in the 5th. Save your bullets for the 8th or 9th when the sands of the hour glass are waning.
  18. Riverbrian
    They had more lefties than they could sit. Kwan, Naylor and Gimenez were probably considered the top 3 so they got more work in against lefties. For example: Just picking a game at random last year against lefties. Sunday, June 23 against Kikuchi and the Blue Jays. Cleveland won the game 6-5 Cleveland started: Kwan LF (L) Freeman CF (R) Ramirez DH (S) Naylor 1B (L) Fry C (R) Schneeman 2B (L) Rodriguez RF (R) Rocchio SS (S) Martinez 3B (S) Naylor (L) Brennan (L) Gimenez (L) Arias (R) were on the bench. That's 3 left, 3 switch, 2 Right and 3 left handers on the bench with 1 right hander. Kikuchi lasted 2 innings. Followed by Pop (R) 1.1 Innings Little (L) .2 Thee Trevor Richards (R) 2 innings Cabrera (L) 1 Green (R) 1 Despite Cleveland knocking out Kikuchi early and Toronto going right, left, Right, left to finish the game. Bo Naylor was the only pinch hit that Vogt utilized in what was a tight game all the way. It wasn't a match up pinch hit. David Fry was pulled after catching two innings due to an elbow injury while Kikuchi was still on the mound. When Bo Naylor entered the game in the 5 spot for Fry in the 3rd inning. Cleveland was L L L in the 4 5 and 6 spots with Kikuchi still in the game. Schneider would try to exploit that. In the 3rd with the Jays up 3 - 1. The lefty wall of 4,5 and 6 came up against Kikuchi. J. Naylor Doubled, B. Naylor Walked, Schneemann singled knocking Kikuchi from the game. Replaced by Pop. The lefty wall would come again in the 4th. Cleveland ahead 5-3. Schneider brings in lefty Brendan Little to face the wall with one out starting with switch Ramirez. Left Josh Naylor hits a home run off of him 409 feet to right center. The next time the lefty wall came around. Schneider brought in lefty Genesis Cabrera. Cabrera hung a zero but he did give up a double to Bo Naylor. This is one game... I'm not saying this is the way it always is in 162 games. I'm not saying that Vogt is different than Baldelli. I'm not saying that Vogt is better than Rocco. But... I am saying that having 6 left handed hitters on their roster didn't hurt them during the course of the season that they won the division. And it didn't hurt them against a total of 3 left handers in this specific game. (honestly picked at random). I am saying that instead of looking for a RIGHT HANDED OUTFIELDER... How about adding to your left handed hitting pile instead, Since we only have 3 of them and they are simply not allowed to face Kikuchi. You are doing good research. I appreciate it. You are on the RIGHT path looking LEFT like you are. You are one of the best.
  19. Riverbrian
    In the case of the Twins... All Left Handers would unfortunately be "most" accurate. We either can't develop left handed hitters like other teams can or we overweight the data point.
  20. Riverbrian
    Will probably need to swing a trade. He probably won't reach waivers. If he reaches waivers... he probably won't reach the Twins. Dodgers will want young prospects not on the 40 man. The Twins are hopefully on the phone.
  21. Riverbrian
    Could be. I can't say for sure. Whatever the reason... they did it for a year and then just stopped doing it. That's the only thing that I truly know. The reasoning is contained inside the walls of 1 Twins Way. They may have stopped because they felt the talent had improved enough to stop as you suggest. They added Lopez to the rotation and they didn't bring back the innings eaters of Bundy and Archer. That is a big talent adjustment in itself so yeah... maybe. However... Sonny Gray? He went from 4.98 Innings per start to 5.75 innings per start from 2022 to 2023. Sonny Gray for some reason was caught in that 2022 vortex of whatever was happening. A 3.08 ERA and 4.98 innings per start. The outsider view point which is all I have to work with. There was a rather noticeable consistency in 2022. Two times through the order. The Starter was gone... regardless of his performance. Pulled after facing #9 in the order. The starter wasn't allowed to face that lead off hitter a third time. It seemed almost robotic... or should I say... Systemic. They went from 408 PA's third time facing a hitter in 2022 to 804 in 2023. That number was 708 PA's in 2024. In 2024... a total of 74 starts were made by starting pitchers with ERA's higher than 4.09. (I choose 4.09 because Lopez came in at 4.08). It would be 106 starts if I used 4.00 as a nice even number line. We had young arms like SWR, Festa, Zebby and Varland tugging at those numbers. For Comparison. In 2022... The year of two times through the order restriction. 69 starts were made by Starters with an ERA over 4.09. 74 starts over 4.00 for the nice even number line. Could it be argued that the two times through the order philosophy was the reason that the Twins had 93 starts made by starters under 4.09. Could be... But they stopped doing it with an improved rotation in 2023 and kept not doing it with a rotation being backfilled by youth named SWR, Festa, Zebby and Louie Lou-Eye. Seems systemic to me... just like every single left handed hitter we have isn't good enough also seems systemic.
  22. Riverbrian
    I agree with you... It just might be that simple. They don't think Wallner, Larnach, Julien and Kirilloff are good enough. Actions speak louder than words. Their actions tell everyone that they don't think they are good enough. If they thought Wallner was good enough... Wallner would be one of the 5 players who have to face both hands. He would join Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Castro in that we think they are good enough group of 5. I've typed a thousand words in opposition but If they don't believe they are good enough and they clearly don't. I can simplify my response to that. Brent Rooker can't happen then. They can't miss on Rooker. They can't stick and stay with Margot as they keep sending him to the plate to keep the not good enough Larnach away and watch him wrap up his 0 for 30 pinch hitting into September. Julien can't make the opening day roster while Miranda doesn't. In other words: They better be right because the cost is fatal. This feeling of not good enough that they have, Is taking up half the available major league inventory and it is spilling over onto everything because half of that inventory is the bucket they have to reach into when the 5 players they think ARE good enough get hurt. The simple concept of rostering a Margot who isn't good enough because Wallner isn't good enough is taking up two roster spots with not good enough. Blame them for not developing beyond AAAA? I don't want to blame them at all. The job is hard... I'm not asking for anyone's head... But yeah I will. They have a choice. They can either develop hitters or they can sign them as free agents. I don't see them signing them in free agency so that kinda makes the development thing a little extra important. We can't commit half the inventory to not good enough. There has to be a path to a better cut of meat... We can't just Ham Hock our way through. So... The best they could do was develop a Wallner who can't do it himself, develop a Larnach who requires another player to handcuff to them. The best they could do is a team that PLATOONS more than any other team. Wait... that's not true... Brent Rooker was the best player they developed. And they think Wallner isn't good enough.
  23. Riverbrian
    0-10 That would have made them 12-14 vs right handed starters during that same time period. 12-14 isn't great but it's better than 0-10 when the chips are down. I know there is more game to play after starters leave the game so the whole story isn't being told... but 0-10 is still a story. In other words... it didn't work at the end of the year.
  24. Riverbrian
    Does anyone know the Twins record in 2024 when a left handed starter starts and their record when a right handed pitcher starts? I know there is a whole lot of game after the opening pitch so those numbers won't mean everything but they might at least suggest that it is or isn't working to a slight degree at least. I'm too lazy to look it up and to be honest... I'm not exactly sure what website would provide this information.
  25. Riverbrian
    Another thought for everyone's consideration. The Twins were able to throw a lineup together of 9 players in the right handed batters box last year against left handed pitching multiple times last year. That's impressive but the problem is that the Twins were not able to come anywhere close to that against right handed pitching. They could bat 5 at most out of the left handed batters box against right handed pitching. By chasing the platoon split against left handed pitching as hard as you did... You played it correctly and very very wrong at the same time. You hyper focused on the left hander when you should have focused on the right handers that make up 75% of the pitching population. If you want to play the platoon split. The 75% throwing right handed trumps the percentage points you gain from the 3 players that keep away from lefties. Cleveland last year with 6 left handed hitters and 4 switch hitters had the ability to place 9 batters in the left handed box against right handed pitching. They played the 75%. We played the 25%. Dear, Mr. Zoll, When you consider that we had a full lineup of hitters in the right handed batters box against the left hander last year. And when you consider that Falvey has announced publicly that you are looking for a right handed outfielder this year. YOU SCARE THE CRAP OUT OF ME. Sincerly, Riverbrian
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