Riverbrian

I would too!!! The Dodgers won't... They'd laugh.

Yep... Rookie Michael Busch from Inver Grove Heights who hit 21 dingers for the Cubs in his first year. Moved to create roster space after acquiring Teoscar. Dodgers said that he didn't belong in AAA but had no room for him on the major league roster so they picked up a couple of real young players age 19 and 18 who have no roster requirements. Must be nice to have a farm system overflowing like that and have that farm system while consistently drafting late in every round.

Agreed Anything is better than paying the inflated prices for upside. Catchers are not 162 game players. Does anyone here want to give up a potential 162 game guy like Jenkins or Erod for Rushing? That's the kind of price tag. Or a Pablo Lopez for Rushing... that's the kind of price tag. Catchers typically don't hit the ball that well so even if they Barnhart their way through the catching problem they created by not creating... the offensive drop off isn't that stark when compared to other catchers playing the position across the league. If you do happen to find a catcher that can hit the ball and defend. That player still won't be a 162 game player. 120 games is typical top end for the best of the best at the position but they will cost as much as the 162 game guy. Just grab a defensive guy at low dollar and live with the offense. It's exactly what they are doing with Vazquez to the tune of 10 million bucks that we don't have.

I agree... I'd install Camargo if he's the best you got and live with it. I'd prefer that to paying the prices for someone who might play in 90 games if healthy. The problem is Camargo being the best you got. The problem is no competition for a .575 OPS.

Rushing is going to be super expensive to acquire. Painfully super expensive. Catcher's are consistent overpays to acquire. To pay what the Dodgers would require is what Ashbury calls a failure tax or stupidity tax. It's the tax you have to pay when you fail to develop your own. With catchers being consistent overpays. The Twins need to take advantage of the market instead of being victims of the market. Just take a look what the Dodgers have done in catcher development over the years. There current catching tandem Smith and Barnes were both home grown. They currently have Rushing and Cartaya close to major league ready and three or 4 in the lower minors that look promising. Two starting current starting catchers came from the Dodgers system. Keibert Ruiz with the Nationals who the Dodgers used to acquire Turner and Scherzer and Connor Wong with the Red Sox who was part of the Mookie Betts trade. Jair Camargo who is currently our #3 was also part of the Betts deal indirectly. In a similar time frame the Twins have developed 3 catchers with some value. Jeffers of course. Along with Garver and Rortvedt who were both traded so the Twins could shed the Donaldson contract which is no easy accomplishment. Since those 3... The Twins development has gone dry. Dry at a position where the market prices are high and if you can't cash in on the market prices... you must pay the market prices. Catching has been a organization failure.

I have said this for years. The Dodgers are bullet proof and they are the only organization that I would be willing to call bullet proof. If they don't make the playoffs in a given year... I'll be shocked. They are the only team that would shock me if they didn't make the playoffs in a given year. Does anyone ever wonder how a team that consistently drafts at the end of each round can build a farm that is consistently producing high quality fruits and vegetables? They grew quite a few pineapples. Jordan Alvarez came from the Dodgers, Oneil Cruz came from the Dodgers, Seager, Urias, Bellinger, Buehler, Will Smith have come from the Farm amongst quite a few others. More recently... Busch was a Dodger and a pretty nice looking prospect for the Cubs. Pepiot and Deluca brought Glasnow to town. Verdugo, Downs and Wong was enough to bring Mookie Betts to town. Ruiz and Grey brought Turner and Scherzer to town. I'm not diminishing the money they spent which the Twins will never come close to competing with... But while you are watching the money and focusing on it... you are missing what the Dodgers are doing without money... with pure simple player development. Creating players that not only help the team when they are needed but creating players that other teams want that they use to acquire players. They trade prospects all the time and always have a bus load coming every single year. Again I'm not diminishing the money spent... that kind of money is a huge advantage to the teams who can spend money. But... Please... While you are watching the money... please take note of the bad money as it falls off the back of the truck... along with all that cheap talent that they grew themselves. Development and Money is a tough combination for teams to compete with. The Dodgers are top of the league in both. Which = Bulletproof. It's why the Angels can't do it with money alone. They just can't seem to develop anyone who helps them or interests other teams in a trade. What can the Twins do that is Dodger like? DEVELOP TALENT!!!

BABIP is an interesting stat to play around with. Taking the Home Runs and strikeouts out is like taking the shoe laces out of shoes and checking out the shoe itself. After checking it out... I just put the shoe laces back in for a better shoe experience. The shoe laces are just to important for evaluation of the shoe. Because home runs really really matter and those strikeouts are the untied shoe lace that sent me into the bushes last week.

Yeah But... The Twins can't afford 6m for what Farmer produces. The Twins can afford the major league minimum for what Julien produces.

The buyout for this year was already included in the trade made last year. Spending that Dodger money. Farmer should be next with a 250K buyout on a mutual option worth 6 MIllion.

Interesting... You even got a couple of likes for this response. I don't know how this is so hard for others to see but when Buxton, Lewis and Correa get hurt and they will get hurt. This is what will be facing those right handers that comprise 75% of the league. Platoon Splits I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ vs RHP 307 688 611 79 141 30 2 9 54 11 5 56 170 .231 .304 .331 .635 202 21 11 1 6 0 6 .301 78 vs LHP 318 653 552 80 153 31 1 15 70 8 4 86 132 .277 .380 .419 .799 231 13 8 0 4 6 4 .337 124 vs RHP as RHB 307 688 611 141 30 2 9 54 0 0 56 170 .231 .304 .331 .635 202 21 11 1 6 0 6 .301 78 vs LHP as RHB 318 653 552 153 31 1 15 70 0 0 86 132 .277 .380 .419 .799 231 13 8 0 4 6 4 .337 124 vs RH Starter 281 125 664 583 69 135 28 2 9 53 11 5 62 161 .232 .315 .333 .648 194 17 11 1 5 4 7 .301 82 vs LH Starter 190 173 677 580 90 159 33 1 15 71 8 4 80 141 .274 .367 .412 .779 239 17 8 0 5 2 3 .336 118 These short siders will face more right handed pitching than left handed pitching. They will absolutely without a doubt face more right handed pitching if the roster around them has a propensity to be hurt or require maintenance days like the Twins have experienced consistently with Buxton, Lewis and Correa. Or if nobody goes in the tank like Miranda has gone in the tank and requires a trip to the minors. If Castro decides to hit .160 next year. If Brooks Lee needs more minor league seasoning. If Larnach get hurt?, Wallner gets hurt? A short sider is fine on the roster if nobody ever gets hurt on the roster or if nobody needs a maintenance day or nobody plays below expectation. This never happens. No disrespect to Refsnyder but Rob and his short side ilk will be a problem to overcome in some form or fashion because they are the next man up when a man goes down.

If they can clear a significant portion of that 10 million off the books by trading Vazquez... it sounds like a solid plan. I'm all for it. One problem though. We don't have a replacement and a decent replacement will be costly which will just put you back at the same place financially. If the replacement isn't costly it will just put you back at the same place performance wise because the reason the replacement isn't costly is because he performs like Vazquez has performed. Even if they could move Vazquez. They might be able to. The problem is that teams are not trading for Vazquez while picking up a significant portion of the 10 million until Jansen in free agency are out of reach or James McCann is out of reach at whatever he gets in the market. So... by the time they move Vazquez because other teams are out of options... the replacement options are no longer available. When Camargo who makes the minimum can't be trusted to get AB's in 2024 with .575 guy blocking him. You haven't got a replacement in house. If you haven't got a replacement in house... you gotta spend the money you saved by trading him on Danny Jansen. If they move Vazquez and just install Camargo as the replacement after being scared of Camargo in 2024. We would have every right to question the front office.

I hope you are right on this but this is one place where I'll have to see it to believe it from a team operational standpoint. I agree with you... his minor league stats don't suggest a need to platoon however Matt Wallner stats in 2022 didn't suggest a need to platoon either. Unless they change philosophy this offseason. I fully expect the Twins to roster a couple of Refsnyder type players to cover for Wallner, Larnach and Julien. Those Refsnyder types will take roster spots that could go to someone like Erod so he will certainly not break camp with the Twins (not a surprise... he probably wouldn't under any circumstance). Erod would then wait for an injury to occur to Wallner or Larnach to get his opportunity. Which will happen. At that point he would assume the role of Larnach or Wallner with the Refsnyder types attached to their role. Again... Man... I hope you are right.

Wow I Didn't see that one coming.

If they keep him... Kirilloff's baseball future comes down to this year. He has gotten chance after chance. Scouts, Coaches, Analysts believe in this guy.. you can tell because he has gotten chance after chance. Scouts, Coaches and Analysts are not always right. Although sometimes... they keep giving a guy chance after chance until he eventually makes them right. Edit: This was posted before the news of his retirement. Since the news of his retirement. I have reconsidered my position: His baseball future does not come down to this year.

I don't know the answer but I'd like to see how many of those K's were looking. Julien walks back to the dugout too many times after watching that third strike. I don't mind patience... waiting for the right pitch is sensible with talented pitchers trying to get you to swing at the wrong pitch but with two strikes on ya... you gotta at least try to get some wood on it. I hope this fixable. If it is... we just might be happy with Julien.

The rule changes has changed the game. Speed is back. I don't know how the Twins are going to do it with the constraints we assume they will have but... they gotta add speed to the roster.

To me... It isn't the lack of hitters above .340. It's the number of hitters below .300. Those are the players who will kill ya. I'd' love me some superstars but I can live with average. The hitters who are well below average getting playing time will keep you out of the playoffs. 17 players had over 178 PA's during the season. 8 of them were below .300 wOBA and under .300 isn't good. Here are the names: Kepler, Martin, Farmer, Kirilloff, Julien, Margot, Lee and Vazquez.

.389 is not sustainable. That shouldn't or really can't be argued. However... I'm not one of those who think it indicates a crash is coming because BABIP is high. Yeah... .389 is off the charts compared to the average BABIP of .293 across baseball. However... Matt Wallner has been high BABIP throughout his limited work over 3 seasons. His career BABIP is .359. BABIP is often considered a luck stat. Yes there is some luck in the game of baseball but I still contend high BABIP is primarily a quality of contact stat and it doesn't have to be a case of Blood Sweat and Tears Spinning Wheel... What goes up must come down. Hit the ball harder... the less time a fielder has to catch the ball and the higher the BABIP. People tend to look at a high BABIP negatively as a sign of upcoming regression. I don't look at it that way... I look at high BABIP as a sign of good hitting. There are players with consistent high BABIP year after year... a lot of them are also in the upper echelon of hard hit%. Matt Wallner has been living in that upper echelon of hard hit% with some pretty impressive high BABIP names year over year. His K rate... yeah... he needs to work on bringing that down... if he does... Look out. If anybody wants to trade Matt Wallner to me because of BABIP fueled regression fear. I'll trade a nice low BABIP guy to you so you take the elevator up. Carlos Santana and his .252 BABIP for Wallner and his .389. Straight up. Deal?

It's the recurring bill that comes due for not growing your own. Fail to grow your own catcher who plays somewhere between 40 to 60% of the time. Leads to having to pay 30 million for an average catcher who plays 40 to 60% of the time. Make the determination that this 30 million dollar catcher with a .575 OPS can't be competed with and he keeps 40 to 60% of the playing time. Leads to providing no playing time while you burn 40 and 26 man space on a young catcher who won't play because .575 can't be competed with. Leads to 30 Million dollar catcher reaching the end of his contract. Leading to still failing to grow your own catcher because .575 can't be competed with or the developed catcher can't out play .575. Leading to signing another inflated contract for a player who plays 40 to 60% of the time or trade for some other teams developed catcher at an inflated price for a player who plays 40 to 60% of the time. Which leads to.

You and I clicked on something earlier. Catcher Development. We agree that catcher development has been a problem with our club and the 30 million we will end up paying for Vazquez when it is all said and done is a prime example of why catcher development has been not just a problem but a significant problem. In 2024 - Jeffers and Vazquez each caught in 86 games last year. Cal Raleigh led the league in games caught with 135. Wilson Contreras led all catchers in AB's with 595 of them but that was 120 games caught and 35 games at the DH spot. You are well researched so I know you know this. Catchers are not full time players... Even the best of the best are not full time players. They require frequent rest or maintenance days. A catcher catching 162 games isn't going to happen. Yet if you want to acquire one... they cost the same as a full time player capable of 162 games with decent production. From an offensive only standpoint they cost more because defense is obviously a big part of their equation. Therefore... Teams need to grow their own in order to avoid paying the cost to sign or trade for a good one or in the case of Vazquez... an average one at best. Average only because his defense brings him to average after you calculate the well below average of his bat. In consideration of the inflated catcher value across baseball... Teams need to grow their own so they can take advantage of the market, trade a good one they developed while the next one takes over. After 2023... It probably would have been smart to cash in on the excess value of Ryan Jeffers in the off-season and bring up the next young catcher to challenge the catcher we over paid for in Vazquez. Of course the next young catcher didn't exist because the next young catcher couldn't be trusted to best a .575 OPS. Catcher development has been slow. If they can't develop catching from the 8th round... they best starting looking in the 2nd round and place more priority on the position... because Catchers are always over pays. If you are lucky enough to develop excess talent at the position you can turn one into a CF or SP with a phone call. If Jeffers and Vazquez are going to cover all the playing time and if Camargo was worth something. The pipeline is now clogged... if you had a pipeline which we don't. It is incredibly frustrating to me that we sit here October 2024 looking at the current catching situation with a diminished value Jeffers and a 10 Million Dollar AAV that we can't afford for an offensively struggling Vazquez locked in. Followed by a guy who the manager won't play and followed by a guy who has caught 9 games in AA and an upcoming Rule 5 40 man roster decision. If there is any good new out of this. The Twins are not alone in the catcher development department. Because the Twins are not alone... that is why the market value is inflated.

Gray is often times not understood in the black and white world we live in. As Mike Sixel says... It's a dial not a light switch. I'm stealing that from Mike and pretty soon I'll stop crediting him and claim it as my own. 😎 My black and white starts here. Terrible performance is what kills you. Competition for playing time is the only way to fix that. It doesn't always fix it but the alternative is driving around in something broken because you settled for a broken car. Who gets to compete for playing time... that's a whole bunch of grey area. I don't claim to know who but I can watch a guy OPS .575 and a guy on the 26 man sitting, watching it happen without opportunity and wonder... how bad is this guy who can't even get a sniff with .575 in front of him? Front offices get it wrong often enough that I have a real problem with pre-determination and I've had enough watching and waiting for Logan Morrison types to be taken out of the lineup. These types are what kill you. It isn't the lack of Shohei's on your roster that bring you down. It's bad baseball that knocks you out of the playoffs with a double digit lead. Someone needs to push the players playing bad. Ultimately my point was... If Camargo only gets 7 AB's over 20 some games on the 26 man roster and the guy in front of him is solid with job security with a .575. They certainly can't trade Vazquez now and hand the job to Camargo in the off-season because the Twins have pre-determined the outcome that Vazquez is untouchable and made him untouchable by providing nobody in touching distance.

I'm not getting at anything other than Vazquez was obviously unchallenged for playing time if they are not willing to let Camargo try to clear an extremely low offensive bar. I'm not going to pretend that I know who Camargo is as a major league baseball player or even a AAA player because all I see are his stats. I'm saying that he is basically worthless if letting him try to out perform a .525 OPS would set the team back... I'm saying that he is basically worthless if the team is willing to intentionally let the .525 OPS set the team back playing every other day from game 1 to game 162 because this Camargo guy is going to OPS ,524 and you just can't have that. If what you are saying is true... He had no business taking up 40 man roster space last year and he certainly had no business taking up 26 man roster space for the tiny total of 7 AB's. If what you are saying is true... the front office ignored the catcher position because the catcher health we had is rare. Please don't believe that I'm defending Camargo. I haven't convinced myself of anything other than. If you got someone with a .525 OPS... you can't say... Eureka... we found our guy. Hold everyone else back... it simply can't be topped. If you can't let a player even try to clear that bar for fear of the carnage settling for simple .525 OPS carnage... get that player off the 26 man immediately and if he has no future in the sport of baseball... get him off the 40 man roster immediately. No one is claiming him. You won't lose him. If they were just going to sign Andrew Knizner when Jeffers or Vazquez gets hurt and Camargo was never an option to be #2. Just go get Andrew Knizner before Arizona does. What the hell do we need Camargo on the 40 man roster for? Why would he spend a second on the 26 man roster? He can't clear .525 Roster filler... That's what Camargo was? Well no wonder we collapsed with no place to turn. All eggs were in one basket.

It's Martha and the Vandela's in the Bullpen. You can't hide players in the bullpen. Stop trying to hide players in the bullpen. Bullpens are utilized to point of nowhere to run nowhere to hide. Most games are not blowouts, the guy you are trying to keep out of high leverage are going to find themselves the only option frequently because 3 bullpen guys are unavailable and there are still 4 innings to play in a tie game. Stop committing valuable roster space to specialists. Managers typically don't stack their left handed batters back to back to back so a left handed specialist can just come face three left handers and sit down. Managers don't have the luxury of holding a specialist for perfect opportunity moments because 3 bullpen guys are unavailable and there are still 4 innings to play in a tie game. That Steven Okert dude who is tough on lefties is going to have to face right handers. In 2024 before he was released in crunch time. He faced 95 right handed batters to the tune of a 2.00 WHIP compared to 65 left handed batters faced to the tune of a 0.94 WHIP. He did his job against the lefties... he just can't be manipulated to the point of only facing them and he couldn't get right handers out. I don't recommend trying to Okert your way through a 162 game schedule. Get bullpen serious stop with the specialists.