Riverbrian

Garlick... A specialist taking roster space... clogging the pipes... gumming up the works. The rabbit hole of taking a spot and making it harder to find someone who doesn't need to specialize. Since you don't find someone who doesn't need to specialize because you chose someone who specialized. You have to find another specialist who again makes it harder to find someone who doesn't need to specialize and on and on it goes. For those who don't understand why Margot, Farmer and Garlick matter. This is why they matter. They insure that you will keep needing Margot, Farmer's and Garlicks and keep making it harder to find Rooker's. The Rooker miss is synergistic... it isn't just missing on Rooker. The miss is multiplied when you consider who they chose to keep instead. Who they chose to keep was also a miss. Garlick, Celestino... The Turtle... Gordon. It's interesting that Astudillo also got more opportunity than Rooker got. Some people think what's the big deal? It's a very big deal... they didn't have space for Rooker because THEY predetermined what Rooker was going to be. They predetermined that Astuadillo, Garlick and Celestino would get the phone calls telling them they are going to the show. They not only missed on a superstar in the making but missed by almost equal distance to the real bad side on who they kept. Add the scale of not believing in Rooker to the scale of believing in Celestino and you have a miss that ended up being the Size of New Hampshire to Arizona out of a couple of players 6.5 vs 6.4 in that big pile of players in the middle. Oops.

It was I who tossed out the 6.5 thing out. Just for clarification... I wasn't calling Rooker a 6.5 out of 10. 6.5 was random number for player X that the club has to make a decision on. 6.4 was for player Y that the club has to make a decision on. I used the random numbers to express the enormous pile of players in the middle that front offices have to sort through and make decisions on. Most players reside in this big pile in the middle. I agree with what you are saying. I believe that they missed on Rooker big time... It can't be argued that they missed on Rooker. It's not my job to assess talent. It is their job to assess talent and in the end... they missed on Rooker... and it was a big miss. Just like they missed on Nick Anderson big time. I believe all teams miss. Sometimes a Rooker comes out and shows the world the miss. Most time those misses remain hidden to the world because the player just fades away which almost happened to Rooker. No matter... I believe all teams miss. I believe that they would miss less if they realized that they are going to miss and instead of forcing it... maybe provide more opportunity for players to prove them wrong. Some players get chance after chance... Some players get none and the difference between them is slight in that big pile in the middle.

Agreed. The differences are slight. They are drawing hard lines between players who are a 6.6 out of 10 and 6.5 out of 10. It's nearly impossible for any front office to be avoid this sort of thing from happening. It's why I think keeping struggling players on expiring contracts is a big huge deal. Every Margot hanging around for the season just keeps it clogged up for players in AAA. Bad Today No tomorrow. Severino can go as far as I'm concerned. There was injury provided opportunity for him last season and the Twins elected not to use him. If Severino is going to amount to anything... It will have to be elsewhere. The Twins will not give him a chance. They might be right... They might be wrong. He will most likely disappear into the baseball wind.

Not sure what the Twins thought of Rooker. Not sure what San Diego thought of Rooker when they acquired him in a trade. At the time of the trade it looked like Rooker was an addition to the deal to even out the 40 man roster space spots but who knows... maybe the Padres were insistent on Rooker being part of the deal instead of other options. We have an idea what the Padres thought of Rooker when they traded him to the Royals. They got him for a weak hitting 29 year old catcher that they kept stashed in AAA. That return sure looks like the Padres and Royals both didn't have a ton of value placed on him. Back to the Twins... Here's what I know. Celestino and Gordon were given roster spots out of spring training. Celestino could play CF... Gordon could play multiple positions. Kirilloff and Larnach were on the 40 to play corner OF. So my suspicion is that Rooker was a positional casualty. Just two years later... Kirilloff is out of baseball... Nick Gordon is a 29 year old free agent probably looking for a minor league deal after being DFA'd and unclaimed by the Marlins. Gilberto Celestino is a 25 year old free agent looking for a minor league deal after being released by the Cubs. Larnach might be alright... we will need him in 2025. Rooker hit 39 Home Runs for the A's last season. In terms of assessment... of projecting players into the future. It sure looks like they missed on Rooker. Will they miss on Severino or Winder. Time will tell. It will depend on if anybody provides the opportunity to be proven one way or the other.

Cookies? Clearly another marketing mistake made by the Twins marketing staff. A promotion like Lefse for a Lefty could have landed us Blake Snell. If you are marketing to Minnesota... Market to Minnesota. If they don't have a Lefse stick... They could use a bat. Maybe Vazquez's bat... Lefse production would increase the value of his bat. Cookies? The Twins decided to compete with the Girl Scouts?

Brent Rooker was given one shot at achieving positive value for a major league team prior to his breakout with Oakland. His options were burned up with consistent .900 plus OPS in the minors. In 2021... He got 213 PA's in his first extended look with the Twins. In the 21/22 Off Season. He was included in the trade with the Padres to clear roster space. The Padres gave him 7 PA's... traded him to the Royals who gave him 21 PA's. His minor league numbers remained .900 plus in 2022. He showed up in Oakland... Injuries gave him a job. He ran with it. In my opinion... The Twins, Padres and Royals all failed to assess what Rooker was capable of and as a result failed to provide opportunity. In 2022 the year that Rooker was handed over to the Padres... Celestino and Gordon both broke camp with the Twins so I assume they were both chosen over Rooker. Larnach, Cave, Garlick, Contreras were all needed before the year was up to fill space and all 4 of them were space filling non-producers. Assessment are tough moving targets... 40 man roster decisions are tough decisions because the margins can be thin. Therefore I don't fault the Twins, Padres and Royals for missing on Rooker... but yet I believe... that the Twins management chose Gordon and Celestino over Rooker due to 40 man pressure... So Yeah... Their Fault in the end. Oops

Radio Audience measurement is a pretty simple formula. Cume X TSL. Cume is how many listeners tune in. TSL is time spent listening... How Long do they listen. Pitching measurement is kind of the same in my way of thinking. Can you Hang Zeroes (Cume). And how many can you hang (Time spent listening). If Griffin Jax can hang zeroes and double the amount of innings that he throws. You do it. If he can't... He stays in his current role. The more innings he can throw... the higher value of the radio station.

Once he tastes a Juicy Lucy. He'll be a Twin.

I will judge the front office on development and development alone. Pitching Development looks good. Offensive Development is primarily being strip mined for parts and therefore not developing complete upper level talent.

Yep I've been to worse a few times. I own a cabin there. I know the way. There are couple of different roads that I can take.

The roster is decent enough... The key is to not make it worse. Who they bring on is what will matter.

I recommend taking the formula and running the numbers to watch the wheels turn. The first thing I noticed was the overwhelming number of routine plays strangling the data. Once you notice the overwhelming number of routine plays... you come to the conclusion that the differences in data must be drawn from the underwhelming amount of non-routine plays.

I'm wondering what increased his trade value to jump start such conversation?

I remember Cliff Diving once. Jumped off the cliff and then I changed my mind.

Most policies in all industries are in place as a reaction to something that needs a fixin'. There is a Preparation H warning that says "Not for Oral use". Someone ate a tube and complained that it didn't work. Unfortunately he had to write a letter to complain because his mouth shrunk to the point that he couldn't speak.

Indeed... he does have to prove these things. Same thing goes for Lewis... Wallner... Larnach... Miranda and Lee. Castro still has to prove it. Martin does... Erod... Jenkins... Eeles... Proving it is part of the process. Julien had a bad year last year... Yet still after that bad year... After 709 PA's in the majors. He's sitting at 106 OPS+ Kyle Farmer has a career 87. Miranda career 105. Larnach 102. Castro 95 for his career. Lots of people need to prove things. He got us into the playoffs in 2023. Polanco is expendable because of the presence of Julien as the front office prepares for 2024. Now he can't even be mentioned in an article for 2025.

Maybe... But... They have coaches and they practice and stuff.

I don't know a lot about Payton Eeles. I can see that he moved through the system fairly quickly this year however he was 23 in his final year at Coastal Carolina. That means that he doesn't really have the time to get comfortable in Fort Myers so he can one step at a time it. Looking at his stats which is all I have to go by. His OPS across 3 levels (FM, CR and ST.P) was almost identical to the OPS produced by Julien in Wichita at age 23 in 2022. I also notice that Payton doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until Dec 2027 so his addition to the 40 man in 2025 would be considered more aggressive than his aggressive rise from Fort Myers to St. Paul in his first year with the organization. I don't know a lot about Payton. But he sure looks like someone who doesn't apply roster pressure but could get a spot when injury or failure necessity creates the need for his addition... if he continues to do what he is doing.

Should be? Yikes. You kill quickly!

Apparently Julien is out of consideration.

The Ole' All Eggs in one Basket plan. Even if the basket malfunctions.

Kind of hair curling when you see this eh? I was in Canada last week so I've added the occasional Eh. Most people don't understand the degree of prayer at this particular alter in comparison with their peers. All 30 teams have left on left data. I'm sure it reads the exact same way for all 30 teams... Yet the Twins have taken the importance of this data to franchise altering adherence. They are building their roster in accordance to their unique over weighting of this data. They are kneecapping development of their future players in accordance to their unique over weighting of this data and they are conducting this kneecapping in the face of fairly serious spending limitation which will ratchet up the importance of developing complete ball players... not prospects who have been stripped mined for parts. They have made themselves slaves to the template in order to adhere to their unique over weighting of this data. They did this willingly... on purpose... of their own accord... volition. According to some... I can't raise this point because the analysts know more than I do. I believe with all of my fiber that they know more than I do. They better... they do this for living. But... the question becomes... what does the Twins analytics department know better than the other 29 teams that are not programming their roster to these rigid parameters in the off-season, locking the setting and then throwing away the key until the long game is played out and you are left gasping for air at the end of the year like a carp flopping around on the riverbank. We need 5 guys who don't platoon under the template... how do you get to 7 like Jorgenswest suggests. I'd like to get to 7 guys. 7 guys is a deeper roster... it provides more overall talent when healthy... it provides quality insurance for the Buxton, Lewis physical break downs. Getting to 7 guys can't be done under this rigid template. It requires talent compromises from the on-set throughout all 162 games just to keep it running just for the benefit of any gains made by Margot facing left handers which are erased completely by the disadvantage of Margot facing right handers more frequently. It's a fundamental problem with the buildings foundation that they build upon. Yet they keep building upon it. You see it.

I said Five guys only in service of the template. I agree... I'd search for 7. And once the limitations of the template are removed... you can go from 7 to 8 to 9.

Very true. He had some good numbers in Boston in comparison to his catcher peers around the league. Yet... you have to factor in the price tag paid for a position that will only play 102 games when healthy or 355 AB's max when healthy. It doesn't matter now. Contract was signed and he will be here for one more year. We will need a catcher next year. It sure would be nice if we could develop a catcher who comes in at the major league minimum so we don't have to go back to that high priced market.

BINGO with all capital letters. Your needs change as the season progresses. The more you platoon... the more you forced to platoon. You can't get out of it. You have nailed it. You have become my favorite poster now. I have to work so hard with everyone else. If you set your roster to platoon in the off-season... you can't get out of it as your needs change. It's a rabbit hole that is impossible to escape. It takes complete commitment to the bit. It requires self induced compromise... to get through 162 games if you start with the template. To protect Wallner you need Margot. To protect Margot you need Wallner. If Wallner is sent down or hurt in April. Now what? Kepler is demoted to platoon because Margot's presence on the roster must be justified. Keirsay is called up instead of Martin by virtue of what batters box he stands in... instead of who is actually hitting the ball in St. Paul because Margot's presence on the roster has to be justified. Miranda has to sit against right handers regardless if he has hit right handers significantly better because they have to have someone protect Larnach or Julien. Margot ends up playing anyway when Buxton gets hurt. Switch hitters become the most important thing on the roster. Castro becomes one of the 5 guys. You have built an unmovable object in the off-season. You have to adjust to the template not to the context of what the hell is actually happening with individual players. The unmovable object template that you built in the off season controls the adjustments that you can make... and adjustments are always necessary. Does Julien need to be sent down? Does Wallner? Kirilloff? Does Martin a right hander now have platoon with Margot because you are out of left handed options? Does Camargo have to be a third catcher and gather dust because Jeffers is all of sudden needed to be the DH vs Left Handers? Is Margot 0 for 30 pinch hitting? Is Farmer in a 4 month slump? Is Kepler in a 4 month slump? Does Correa have plantar fasciitis in his third leg? The template overrules everything over 162 games until it runs out of parts to feed it. When you run out of parts to feed it.... And then all of sudden you have Wallner facing Framber Valdez in late September or the playoffs should you manage to survive your self imposed limitations and get that far. OK... Maybe Helman is now starting against Framber because you have starved Wallner all season long in service of the object you built. It has taken a sensible data point and abused it to the point of something to over come. A glass of wine nightly is good for you... 5 bottles of wine a night is not. I'm hoping that the Twins are able to just stop building the roster to the strict inflexible parameters of this process. Just abruptly stop doing it... much like they abruptly stopped with the strict interpretation of the third time through order data point for starting pitchers in 2022. That legit data point became the dominant metric and it controlled a season long philosophy in 2022. They took a legitimate data point overweighted it's value beyond what other teams do with the same data to the point making useful information useless. They just stopped doing that. Can they stop doing this? Is an intervention followed by rehab necessary?