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Riverbrian

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  1. Riverbrian
    Kepler Career: 3170 PA's against right handers 1081 PA's against left handers. Career - 25 Percent of his AB's were against Lefties. In 2024: 317 PA's against right handers 82 PA's against left handers 2024 - 20 Percent of his AB's were against lefties. When Kepler was a young player still forming into whatever he was going to become. Kepler had 568 PA's as a 24 year old. 611 PA's as a 25 year old, 596 PA's has a 26 year old. Hard to get that many AB's if you are being platooned as strictly as Wallner and Larnach are being platooned. He wasn't. Kepler was granted the right to develop against the left handed pitcher at age 24, 25 and 26. Wallner and Larnach are not being granted the same development opportunity. Rocco did not start this extreme platoon strategy until Julien and Wallner arrived in 2023. That's when it reached a whole new level to the point that I'm complaining about. No team in MLB platoons as much as the Twins do. Kepler managed to avoid it until lefties got hurt or sent down which dropped the number of lefties on the roster forcing Kepler to be one. This year Julien and Wallner were sent down, Kirilloff was injured. During those times when a combination of those players were off the roster. Kepler got demoted to sitting so Margot could play against left handers. 2024... First game of the season. Against the Royals - left hander Cole Ragans. Kepler is starting in RF and batting 6th. Who wasn't in the game opening day against Ragans. Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff and 3 is the max amount to keep glued to the bench. They were one lefty hitter over stocked so Kepler faced the left hander. Margot at DH, Farmer at 2B and Santana at 1B started instead of Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff.
  2. Riverbrian
    In my opinion. Kepler typically wasn’t platooned throughout his career but he was pulled into a platoon spot last year when we developed lefty issue with Wallner and Julien. That’s the evil of this thing. If you have 3 left handed hitters and two short side right handers. One of the lefties avoids the platoon. Or 4 lefties and 3 short side right handers. Again… one of the lefties avoids the platoon. So when something happens to one of the left handed hitters. Injured or sent down. That extra left handed hitter that was avoiding the platoon… which was Kepler. He gets sucked down into the platoon role because you got these shortsiders on the roster that also need the cover and someone has to do it. This is what happened to Kepler last year. Wallner and Julien were sent down. Margot and Farmer did not. This is how this thing feeds on itself and becomes inescapable. And just a word of warning to those who believe that Erod or Jenkins can avoid this vortex. They can’t. Even if the Twins decide to not platoon Erod. He is stlll dependent on having enough platooning left handed hitters to keep him platoon free at all times during the season. He may start the year platoon free but when one of the other left handers go down. He will be sucked into it.
  3. Riverbrian
    Hopefully you were able to mention to him that I am personally counting on him this year. 😉😎😄 You can also mention that I also believe him in. I think I'm counting on the right guy. Now we just got to get management out of his way.
  4. Riverbrian
    Beautiful Post. The complication of Jeffers is well stated. They are chasing a moving target. I'll add a similar complication to your well done post. Miranda... the right handed hitting Miranda with much much better splits against right handed pitching last year. Extreme split differences. Is he better against right handed pitching or was it the small sample results of what he did against left handed pitching? I don't know but there were stretches last year sometimes lengthy stretches when Miranda would be in the lineup against left handers consistently and sat against right handers totally ignoring what was actually happening on the field. Will Miranda's splits in 2025 look like they did in 2024? I don't know but the sample size against left handers is certainly small enough that they could look completely different. How do you plan for that? Do you play Miranda against every body in 2025? Do you play Miranda in a short side role in 2025? Do you play Miranda against right handers only... like he is Trevor Larnach? Whatever you do... he gets set in cement for the year. If you treat Miranda like he is Larnach. His numbers suggest that you should. Now you need Farmer to platoon with Miranda. One year results... his future planned. As long as Farmer is on the roster... He needs that guy who can face right handers. You said it perfectly when you said this: "The answer to roster construction is simply roster the better hitters".
  5. Riverbrian
    I don't care if they trade for Kasper. I don't care if the budget restricts what we can do. I'm not calling for Rocco's head... I'm not calling for Falvey's head. I'm not asking for new ownership. I have one wish... I want them to stop doing this. Just like they stopped yanking starting pitching after two times through the order. I will say uncle eventually. I will judge this front office on development because money has always been a hurdle and I expect money to continue to be a hurdle. The team won't survive in the future without development. If the best they can do on the development side is develop a Wallner or Larnach or Julien that demands a Margot be attached to them. They will have failed at development if that is the best they can do. If they fail at development... then I'll demand that they increase payroll to sign players that other teams have fully developed because we are incapable of developing our own. If they continue to work with budget limitations that make it impossible to bring players in that other teams have fully developed I'll go back to asking that they fully develop players. At that point... I'll be aware of being bounced around like a tennis ball and I will eventually ask for new front office leadership that is more committed to development.
  6. Riverbrian
    Unfortunate Injuries and players playing well below what they were projected to perform is a constant thing and it doesn't go away. Very few teams have been able to pick 9 players and just ride with them for all 162 games to the playoffs. Each roster spot is gold. A player playing terribly doesn't kill you. It's the constant playing of the player playing terribly that kills you. This is an extremely important TRUTH. Do you want to get away from that player playing terribly? You can't get away from that player playing terribly because your options are the guy that you won't let hit left handers or the guy who can't hit right handers and that guy is only on the roster because you won't let the guy hit left handers. It's a death cycle with no escape or end.
  7. Riverbrian
    Julien pinch hit for before he even swung a bat because the Giants started with an opener. That's a manager who came from the Rays... the team that invented the opener... getting beat by the opener concept. If you want to know when I became as passionate about this subject. That was the moment. Yanking out Larnach in 5th inning with plenty of game to play... with so many different scenerios can still happen before the clock runs out... just so you have no choice but to bat Margot against the right handed closer in the 9th with the clock about to run out and the scenerio is basically do or die. CAN'T be Justified. Maybe if the bases are loaded in the 5th... Maybe you could justify it. But, the majority of these pinch hits are occurring regardless of the game situation... they are occurring with one out and nobody on base in the 5th inning with a 5 run lead. They are occurring simply because a left hander is being put in the game... the game situation doesn't matter. It's just done and done consistently.
  8. Riverbrian
    YES... A thousand times YES. Buxton, Lewis and Correa have spent enough time on the injured list that any idea that you can get by with just 9 decent ball players is a bad idea. These roster spots are GOLD. Camargo just watching Vazquez OPS .575 is just a waste of a roster spot. We committed 30 million dollars and bunch of AB"s to players who were below of average last year. Kepler, Margot, Farmer and Vazquez add up to 30 million dollars. You can't just sit back and say Oh Well... It happens. You need players to compete for playing time. Larnach's locked in utilization doesn't allow for competition for playing time... it requires Larnach to be locked into a role and it requires Margot on the opposite side. So sub par plays just gets to keep doing what it was doing because Larnach can NEVER be the replacement and Margot is MARGOT.
  9. Riverbrian
    This is a pretty big con. We should sit back and think about Wallner and Larnach. Some may not care about Julien but let's throw him in that group and let's ponder the future of all 3. Here's the question I have for everyone. What does everyone see Wallner and Larnach doing with the Twins in 2027? Will they still be platooning? If the answer is no... they won't be platooning in 2027... Then the next question would be... What the hell are we doing with them now and how does it help for the moment they won't be. If the answer is yes.... they will still be platooning in 2027? That will mean that 2025, 2026 and 2027 all 3 of them will require a right handed hitter attached to them for all 3 of those years. They have to sign a Margot type for one year and do it again just to fill that role. If they don't sign Margot... then the role will have to be filled from the farm. So now... You got Keaschall from the right side of the plate only facing left handers and this becomes his development. Some young guy important to our future getting bench stains on his butt until he is forced to face the righties due to injury. So in 2027... The top prospects coming up to make us competitive in 2027 are a bunch of parts that have been stripped mined and this is huge... Why? Well because we all know that the team can't fill the roster spots in 2027 with Pete Alonso or Anthony Santander. Pete isn't coming. We have to develop Pete and we can't do that because we have limited to them to impossible to EVER become Pete. And another point that matters to me... but may not matter to some because it is mainly important to the player only. Larnach becomes a free agent after 2027. He could OPS 1,000 vs Right handed pitching in 207 and Trevor will not be able to fully cash out if he is not allowed to face lefties for the entire time he was under our control. Teams will be interested but the best he will be able to do is 2 years like Joc Pederson and Joc had to sign a series of 1 year deals before he got that 2 year deal. If I'm Erod or Walter Jenkins. I'd want out of Minnesota NOW!!!!
  10. Riverbrian
    Good Post String. Just for clarity. It isn't so much advocating but saying that you have to have to five players on the roster who must face both hands because the system demands it. The system demands it because you need 6 roster spots to platoon just to commit to this system. Add in two catchers and you are left with 5 that have to face both hands. Those 6 roster spots committed also guarantees that you are LOCKED into this system because you can't escape it. If Margot is on the roster so you have someone to face lefties instead of Larnach. When Margot is hurt you have to call up a right handed hitter because Larnach still needs that protection. Erod getting the call when Margot gets hurt. Well... that can't happen because you are locked in. You must call up a right handed bat to replace Margot or else Larnach runs free. OK... Let's say you call up Erod anyway... So you have a 4th left hander. And let's say that you allow Erod to face left handers because someone has to. Then Larnach gets hurt. You are still locked into this system so Erod no matter how he is performing against left handers has to drop into the Larnach role because you have Margot on the roster that shouldn't face right handers. The system to this degree is lunacy and will kill the franchise in the future.
  11. Riverbrian
    I don't recall citing Betteridge's law of headlines. However... I love those TV or Radio ads that start with a question. Are you looking for a fish? Come to Bob's Goldfish Store. I'll say... Nope... Not looking for a fish and I'm done. It's probably better to sell the reason that you need a fish instead of settling for the tiny amount of the already converted fish people. Anyway... Hooked me with this article. Yes I need a non-platooning fish.
  12. Riverbrian
    It does the exact opposite. Other than Willi Castro who is a switch hitter and therefore the player who led the team in AB's because of versatility in the field and his non-platooning. There is such thing as "thriving" for the players you list as benefactors of the platoon system. They may get roster spots as a result but no thriving. Let's look at the names you list Austin Martin just facing left handed hitting does nothing for Austin Martin. It gives him a roster spot. Eventually, someone gets hurt and now Martin has to face right handers. If Martin could hit right handers, there would be no reason to limit him to left handed hitting. The Platoon only hurts Martin and makes him a development failure. Michael Helman: It gives him a roster spot and keeps the team from giving someone better that roster spot. Of course... the giving someone better the roster spot comment assumes that Helman isn't that good to begin with. Is he or isn't he... We won't know. He's just there because you failed to develop Wallner or Larnach beyond the point that they require someone like Helman to be attached to them. This year and every year after that. DaShawn Keirsay: This guy is going to be punished beyond recognition. There is no thriving for him... just a big huge unscalable wall. You can only protect 3 left handed hitters. If you have Wallner and Larnach occupying two of the three spots how do you find a spot for Keirsay? He can only wait for an injury to either Wallner or Larnach for a call up. Keirsay isn't eligible to be called up if Buxton gets hurt because he would bring the number of left handers on the roster beyond what they can protect. This is important to understand so I'll repeat it and bold it. If Buxton gets hurt... Keirsay isn't eligible to be called up because he would bring the number of left handed hitters on the roster beyond what they can protect. If Keirsay gets a roster spot with Wallner and Larnach also hanging around. One of them will now have to... all of a sudden... move into a full time role which means... all of a sudden... they have to face left handers because you have too many on the roster and you can't protect them all. The extreme platooning that we do... limits the number of left handers that we can roster to 3. If you go to 4 left handers... one of them must face left handed hitting. The platooning that we do... KILLS Keirsay. OK... That's Great... Keirsay added to the Roster. Wallner can face left handers now... I've been asking for this. WALLNER won't be prepared for this. We have spent two years hiding him from this. Wallner has been developed to guarantee that he needs a handcuff at all times. But... Hey... now we need him. And this is going to happen in September with the playoffs on the line. Go face Framber now Matt. I know we didn't trust you to face him for 4 years but we need you now.
  13. Riverbrian
    I'm ok with the managing of player workloads. Because of the frequent injuries that occur and occur every single year. I'm all for the utilization of all 13 players on the 26 man roster. Not because I think the managing of workloads prevent injuries but because the utilization of all 13 players PREPARES the players that you will need to step up when injuries occur... and the injuries will occur. However, You don't need to set up platoons in order to manage workloads. Just manage workloads. Simple enough. The players you list Correa and Buxton are not part of this platoon world. They are the reason that platooning comes back to bite you. The consistent injury frequency of Correa, Buxton and let's add Lewis to that group guarantees you that Farmer and Margot are going to end up facing more right handed pitching. Platoons don't prepare you for these injuries. Platoons prepare players to platoon. They prepare right handed hitters to face left handed hitters. They prepare left handed hitters to face right handed pitchers. When the injuries come and they will come... you are forced to turn to the right handed hitter to face right handed pitching because the entire roster is carved into these niche deployments. When Buxton goes down? Who takes over. I don't know who that will be but all you have to choose from are those guys you have been keeping away from right handers or the guys you have been keeping from left handers because your entire roster has been carved up to serve the platoon to maximum utilization. The Twins won't have a player who can face both hands ready to go. You have no choice because you have committed every single last drop of your roster to execution of this strategy. 2 Catchers, 5 players who play every day. 3 left handed hitters who you only want to face right handers and 3 right handed bats who you only want to face left handers. Injuries are real bad reason to justify platooning.
  14. Riverbrian
    I am not anti-platoon. I am anti-platoon to the degree that we do it. Really Really Anti-Platoon to the degree that we do it. On paper it makes perfect sense for Kyle Farmer to replace Julien against left handed pitching. A .751 OPS is decent... It's above average. However... what is gained if Kyle Farmer has more AB's vs Right Handed pitching. Any potential gains from the platoon utilization is erased when Farmer faces more right handed pitching.
  15. Riverbrian
    The quote from Falvey suggests rather unequivocally that Rocco is the one responsible for the amount of platooning being done by suggesting that Rocco makes out the lineup card. OK... I'll believe that. Most front offices make similar statements in similar regards concerning the manager and the lineup card. However... it does lead to a another rather important question. Did Rocco trade for Margot enabling Rocco to platoon more than any of the other 29 baseball teams. At the very least did Rocco encourage the front office to trade for Margot? I understand that the daily lineup card is Rocco's decision. However... is it also safe to assume that we have some coordination between the front office and the manager to supply the players necessary for this sort of thing? Chicken or Egg... Did the front office provide players that require Rocco to manage in this fashion or did Rocco's managing require the front office to provide these players.
  16. Riverbrian
    This may shock some of you. However... The answer to the question posed in the title. In my opinion is... YES!
  17. Riverbrian
    In regards to our catching situation. I'd rather the Twins just slept in the bed they made. I'd rather they don't pay the over inflated trade prices necessary or the over inflated free agent prices to acquire someone who will play 120 games at most because of the maintenance that catchers require. Please consider these points. 1. Jair Camargo was given a 40 man spot last year. 2. There are two reasons that you give someone a 40 man spot. 2a. To call them up to the majors. 2b. To protect them from another team claiming them. 3. If you don't feel that another team would claim them. You wouldn't need to give a player a 40 man spot. For example Ricardo Olivar needed to be protected or exposed and was not protected. The Twins either didn't think Olivar interested other clubs or didn't care if other clubs were interested. 4. Camargo was protected. The Twins must have felt that other teams would be interested in him. 5. Since he was protected. It suggests that THEY DIDN'T WANT CAMARGO TO BE CLAIMED, 6. Christian Vazquez produced a .575 OPS in 2024. Camargo got 7 AB's because the Twins couldn't afford to give up that incredible Vazquez production. 7. Despite giving Vazquez 7 AB's over 20 games on the 26 man roster. Camargo is STILL ON THE 40 MAN roster. In other words. The Twins simultaneously feel that Camargo isn't good enough to replace a .575 OPS but good enough that another team would put him to work. He's good enough for others but not good enough for us. What they did with Vazquez and Camargo last year was a huge deal. Vazquez will not be here next year. Will Camargo be here next year? I don't know but he is still on the 40 man roster for some reason. The front office can stop buying or trading for new blankets and pillows and just lie in this bed they made.
  18. Riverbrian
    By golly... that catching is sure expensive to acquire. How many games do you think we would get out of this Feduccia fella?
  19. Riverbrian
    The very second that framing gets removed from the equation. I'll say Yippee loud enough to be heard in Crookston. As for today... In light of the value attached to catchers in the marketplace. I'd would have been hyper focused on the development of catchers. I would have started day one and done my best to pile them up and trade the extras for the value returned. The Dodgers trade extra catching value despite drafting in the upper 20's every year. However... At a minimum. Catcher is such a defensive position... so much so that there are many light hitting defensive catchers across the baseball landscape that still cost 4 million. Why can't teams (plural) at the very least... produce a catcher or two on the farm with the defensive skill necessary but can't hit a lick. I know we want them to hit and catch but the market is already paying 4 million for catch only. It just leads questions that I can't answer. How bad do the Twins think Camargo was that he couldn't get some exercise on the 26 man roster last year with a .575 in front of him blocking the way? How bad is the sum total of catchers across the league if Camargo still has a 40 man roster spot despite not getting exercise with a .575 in front of him? How bad is the sum total of catchers across the league if McCann is the answer to any question. The Market value of catching is so inflated and it has been for years. The Twins (And other teams) by failing to cash in on that inflation... have simply dropped the development ball and every time they dip into the McCann bucket they extend the dropping of the development ball with no end in sight.
  20. Riverbrian
    I think it's bad strategy trying to force the spending of more money by taking away money that they have to spend. Sounds like a good way to get the team moved to Nashville. "Pining" isn't really accurate. I could care less about moves like this. I have no idea what Gasper will be. But he didn't cost 4 million so let him be who he will be. If all he has to do is clear the Margot bar... then we can spend that 4 million elsewhere. I did have a pretty good idea of what Margot was and he certainly was... and he was for the entire 2024 season. I'd rather not spend 4 million here and 4 million there and 4 million over there when that 12 million could be combined to bring in something actually better then the guy with options making the minimum.
  21. Riverbrian
    Agreed... McCann was a much better hitter and still not good enough. In the end... It's like choosing between a 5 dollar cup of coffee at Starbucks and 5 dollar cup of coffee at Caribou. Make your own. Spend that 5 dollars on something else.
  22. Riverbrian
    Exactly... You are spot on. I can't see anything that makes sense here. What teams wants Vazquez at the entire 10 million when Jansen and Sanchez costs 8.5 million? How much money will the Twins have to eat just to move Vazquez in order to clear some cash to possibly spend? McCann is basically Vazquez value wise. They are carbon copies of each other with McCann just one year older. McCann cashed in a big year with the White Sox in 2020 for a 4 year 40 million contract with the Mets in 2021. 2 years later... the Mets traded him to the Orioles with the Mets eating 19 million of the remaining 24 million getting a low level prospect in return. So, the Orioles valued McCann for two years at 2.5 million AAV in order to part with a low level prospect. So if you consider what the Mets ate. Now consider the Vazquez similarity. He cashed in a decent year with the Red Sox and Astros in 2022 for a 3 year 30 million contract with the Twins. Look at Vazquez and then look at McCann and then look at how much money the Mets ate to get McCann of their roster for the remaining two years of his contract. The question remains... How much money would the Twins have to eat to shed Vazquez? Which leads to the next question to make the proposed scenario work. With Vazquez and McCann performing nearly the same over the course of their big contracts and similar age. If the Twins don't eat significant money in a trade. Why would any team trade for Vazquez for more money when they can just sign McCann for much less especially when McCann was better offensively last year? If the Twins have to eat significant money which I assume they do. Trading Vazquez, eating money and signing McCann would leave how much to spend on Pete Alonso? I assume... not much if you could convince a team to take Vazquez with McCann STILL ON THE BOARD. This is why Camargo sitting on the bench for 20 games on the roster watching Vazquez produce a .575 OPS is a HUGE deal. Camargo would make the minimum for 3 years before reaching arbitration. Camargo making the minimum frees up money that could be spent elsewhere and all he had to do was clear an extremely low bar set by Vazquez. Yet the Twins didn't believe that Vazquez could do that. So he sat and watched. Develop catchers or Die via the yearly commitment to poor offensive veteran catchers one after another after another after another.
  23. Riverbrian
    We committed 2,241 Plate Appearances (36%) to players who were significantly below average at the plate in 2024. We paid Max Kepler 10m to OPS ,682 over 399 PA's. We paid Kyle Farmer 6.25m to OPS .646 over 242 PA's. We paid Manual Margot 4m to OPS .626 over 343 PA's We paid Christian Vazquez 10m to OPS .575 over 315 PA's 30.25 Million spent on players that kept their jobs all year long despite being rather not good enough at the plate. I'm simply not inclined to be concerned about Mickey Gasper making the minimum. I will only become concerned about Mickey Gasper on the 40 man. A. If he remains on the 40 man all year and also remains in AAA all year while 36% of the team MLB AB's are committed to players who are significantly below average. If he is just another Severino or Camargo hanging on the 40 man all year that they refuse to turn to while those above are struggling. I'll then be concerned about Gasper. B. He makes the team and remains on the 26 man roster all year despite significant below average performance at the plate. If he is just a cheaper version of a bad baseball player that you can't get rid of. I'll then be concerned about Gasper. Would I rather pay Margot 4m or pay Gasper the minimum? Gasper please and thank you.
  24. Riverbrian
    If he hits. Let me be the first to say...Welcome to Minnesota.
  25. Riverbrian
    Pretty impressive company kept by Matt Wallner. Dear Front Office, Please let Matt Wallner face left handers in 2025. Even if he is only producing 112 MPH exit velo's against them. Sincerely, Riverbrian
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