Cody Pirkl

The jury is still out on him for sure, but they took a big risk scrapping his 2 seamer from last season and by stuff numbers it looks like it could pay off. They've had success stories like having Matt Wisler throw his slider more, but in Duarte's case they completely changed who he is as a pitcher. I'm very interested to see how it plays out.

I doubt Raya is up this year, but Festa should be. I'm not sure how people are still talking about SWR ahead of anyone on the depth chart. Maybe the spring training gains stick, but we have to see it first. Last year he had games where his fastball was in the mid 80s and he had major walk problems all year.

I'm an unabashed Dobnak lover, and I think it's fair for anyone to be a huge fan. The fact is that he's probably 9th on the depth chart at worst for the rotation, and they needed 11 starters last year. Pretty decent chance we see him this year so it's worth checking in.

The Minnesota Twins' bullpen will be tested over the next few weeks. With three of their top five relievers missing, someone must step up. One of their offseason waiver pickups may be a top candidate to do so. Daniel Duarte had the raw stuff to be a decent reliever with the Cincinnati Reds in 2023, but couldn’t put it all together. Now, with a bit of Twins magic and a golden opportunity, Duarte may find himself climbing the bullpen depth chart. Spring Training results are to be taken with a grain of salt, but his 12 strikeouts in 12+ innings were impressive, especially without a walk to temper their value. Free passes were arguably Duarte’s biggest problem in 2023. He may have walked a hitter in his regular-season debut, but he still looked like a candidate to move up the pecking order at the end of games. On a day when everyone standing on the mound in a Twins jersey was getting knocked around by the Royals, Duarte threw two scoreless innings with two strikeouts, while allowing one hit. He showcased a slider and averaged north of 96 miles per hour on the fastball. Both pitches generated whiffs at least a third of the time. He was typically a one-inning reliever in 2023, but he held his stuff through two innings on Sunday. It may be jumping the gun based on one appearance, but what we’ve seen is a fantastic sign. Duarte’s most-used pitch in 2023 was his sinker, which was incredibly effective in terms of overall results but only drew a 20% whiff rate. His slider was his fourth-most-used pitch. On Sunday, those two pitches traded places. The slider became a legitimate weapon, and his high-octane fastball seemed a lot more effective than it had at any point last season. Unsurprisingly, the Twins picked Duarte up to make him a slider-first pitcher. The pitch was effective for him in 2023, but it had an extra inch and a half of vertical drop against the Royals on Sunday. The hope is that a change in pitch mix and the tweaked movement on the slider helps Duarte’s fastball play up, after it allowed a .724 SLG with Cincinnati. The Twins have found this to be a winning formula in the past, even if the payoff is turning a player bouncing around the league into a solid middle reliever. At this point, such a development would be welcome, given the injuries to the bullpen. There is no apparent hierarchy behind Brock Stewart and Griffin Jax, but it would be a win for the Twins if Duarte could grab ahold of that job. The group will be much deeper, of course, when Jhoan Durán, Caleb Thielbar, and Justin Topa return in the coming weeks. Duarte isn’t expected to have the upside of Durán or Jax, but he has good enough stuff to aspire to a setup man ceiling. We’ve seen the Twins succeed with these kinds of pitch mix changes, and it’s fair to wonder whether Duarte’s 2024 success has everything to do with walks. If he’s throwing 96 mph with the weapon of a slider he showed on Sunday, the only thing that can hold him back is issuing free passes. The Twins currently have solid depth in the bullpen, even in light of their injury issues, but they could use someone taking a step forward. Duarte flashed that capability against the Royals. Could he be another under-the-radar success story? View full article

Randy Dobnak spent all of 2023 stuck in St. Paul, after being removed from the Minnesota Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins' payroll reduction and a lack of pitching depth should create opportunity. Could 2024 bring redemption? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (photo of Randy Dobnak) Randy Dobnak has been named the St. Paul Saints starter for the home opener. Then, after exactly the kind of twist we should have learned to expect from his career, inclement weather delayed that opener, and when it came, David Festa got the honor of toeing the rubber first. Dobnak responded with four superb innings as Festa' piggyback partner Saturday, though. Could it be the first step of a journey back to the big leagues? There’s no need to deep dive into what transpired with the payroll and roster this winter. The summary of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda departing and not being effectively replaced is all that matters for Dobnak. While it’s fair to hope that Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack can pick up a lot of the slack, the Twins will need more than the five starters in the Opening Day rotation, regardless of how well the campaign goes. As of Saturday, we have official confirmation that Anthony DeSclafani won't be among the shock troops, as he's set for a season-ending surgery. The rotation depth chart beyond the MLB level is an assortment of names with upside, but there’s no Ober or Louie Varland type like last year. We’re likely to see several arms get an opportunity. Dobnak is a different pitcher from the one we saw in 2019 and 2020. His bowling ball sinker, which was once an equalizer to any and all hitters, hasn’t been the same since the finger injury that ultimately cost him his roster spot. He’s reinvented himself, leaning more on his offspeed pitches and mixing in a four-seam fastball. His ERA over 5.00 in St. Paul last season may not be impressive, but his ability to limit the long ball is still a plus skill; he yielded just 12 homers in 126+ innings. Reports say that Dobnak has returned to the 93-MPH heat we saw from him at his peak. Indeed, though he only threw a few of the four-seamers Saturday, that was his average velocity on them. It would be easy to say that arms such as Simeon Woods-Richardson or Brent Headrick should get the first crack at an opportunity with the Twins due to their youth and theoretical long-term upside, and they're certainly ahead of him in line, given their possession of 40-man spots already. It’s worth noting, perhaps, that these two had similar struggles in Triple-A to Dobnak's recent ones. They may have the advantage regarding long-term team control, but Dobnak is due another $6.25 million over the next three years. While this amount (hopefully) won’t hold the Twins back financially in the coming years, Dobnak getting an opportunity and making a resurgence of any kind is in the best interest of all involved. What does Dobnak need to do to earn another shot? It’s hard to argue that Dobnak’s ability to limit homers will translate well to MLB, but his most significant issue in 2023 was issuing free passes. His walk rate over 10% was the worst he’s posted for any sustained period of his career. He’ll never be one to post strong strikeout rates, but if he can get back to the 5.5% career rate he put up before the injury to pair with his home run suppression, those two skills would likely be enough to find some success at the MLB level once again. To that end, the absence of any walks in his line is more important than the presence of six strikeouts Saturday. We know what a successful Dobnak looks like. Even if the run he went on to begin his career was unsustainable, his skills were enough for the Twins to invest a bit in his ability to contribute at the major-league level. His health in 2023 was probably the most essential part of his performance, and if he can build off of the adjustments he made last season, there will be plenty of opportunity for him at Target Field in 2024. It would be difficult to find a single Twins fan not rooting for Dobnak to earn another shot. One of the best stories in MLB in recent years, the former independent-ball pitcher and Uber driver still holds a place in the hearts of many in Twins Territory. Should he get another shot? View full article

How about their performances that determine whether they're on prospect lists? There's a reason Woods-Richardson was MLB.com's #24th ranked Twins prospect, and why Headrick isn't on the list at all for example. They both had near 5 ERAs in St. Paul last year and their underlying numbers weren't much better. There's a reason Dallas Keuchel was pitching for us last season. They didn't have anyone in Triple-A that looked like they could compete in the MLB. They have to be successful in the minors before they're even considered for the MLB roster.

Important to consider with Canterino: his career high in professional innings for a season is 37. I was surprised they didn't just make him a reliever when he came back as a 26 year old and the clock ticking on his team control. Now he's starting the season on the IL with an innings limit probably well below 100. I'm guessing when he's healthy again this time, we see them throw the plans for him to start out the window. If his body can even handle an MLB starters workload, it'll take multiple seasons to build up an innings floor.

I think you'll have to show your work on both counts to win me over. The Vazquez/Jeffers split pretty much always had more to do with the handedness of the opposing pitcher and/or how many days one caught in a row. Julien was pretty much always sitting as a result of the handedness of the opposing pitcher aside from from being lifted in late and close games for defensive purposes. Sonny Gray was the only groundball pitcher in the rotation last year, and Julien and Jeffers played when he pitched plenty. Look no further than the playoffs when the games counted the most and they both started when Sonny pitched.

I don't think adding Lorenzen now would stop them from adding at the deadline. We'd be talking about a higher tier of pitcher at this point. If we had two Varlands ready to go, I'd say ride with the younger guys. Unfortunately it's Varland who we hope is relatively safe, Festa who's thrown 12 innings in St. Paul, and then guys like Woods-Richardson who have pitched so poorly that they aren't even on most prospect lists anymore. I just fear the odds of multiple guys at that level working out are very very low.

That was before they lost their 5th starter. Of course Varland can replace him and maybe that's what they choose to do, but they've shown in the past that's not how they prefer to operate. I'm just hoping they can be coaxed into pushing payroll a bit further.

Varland won Minor League Pitcher of the year and debuted in 2022. Woods-Richardson and Headrick had near 5 ERAs in St. Paul last year. Tjose two in particular are miles behind where Varland was at the start of last season. I hope Festa will be good, but he threw 12 innings in Triple-A and doesn't have the pedigree of success and workload Varland did. Those are guys I'd like to see further down in the pecking order, because the reality is that if one of them is a halfway competent MLB starter for a couple years, that's a very good outcome.

Even if it's just Devil's Advocate, your point seems to be "who knows? Maybe those guys could pan out and help fill the rotation" I'm just making the point that there isn't evidence of them being capable of that, and therefore I'd like to see them bring in more of a sure thing.

I think second half struggles can be expected when you move from the AL Central to the NL East, especially as he went over his career high in innings. I'm not worried about him returning to the AL Central at the back of our rotation. Theyre also not going to just flat out bench Julien based on the pitcher that day. No shot. Kirilloff already isn't going to be playing 1B over Santana very often, and I definitely don't see the correlation between groundball pitchers and who's catching.

"Prospect" has a pretty broad definition. The only pitcher in Triple-A even close to a top prospect is David Festa who threw 12 innings there last year. If you want to argue he deserves a shot at some point in 2024, I'd agree but I don't think it'd help him if he gets forced up in April or May. I don't really understand wanting to trust SWR based on a few spring innings, or Brent Headrick at all. Those two were really bad last year.

The difference is last year the Twins were very fortunate with their SP health, and Mahle was essentially the only starter they lost aside from Joe Ryan for a time. What happens if Paddack has issues coming back from his second TJ? What if Ober's injury history pops back up? The season hasn't even started yet and they're down a pitcher, and last year when it happened they also had Ober ahead of Varland. I know people are excited about SWR and see guys like Headrick as depth, but those aren't guys you want to head into the year relying on in my opinion. They weren't even effective in St. Paul last season. I also don't think Lorenzen is a "little gun". I don't think people realize how massive of a success it would be if Varland matched what Lorenzen did last year from a quantity and quality standpoint. He's a good pitcher that can probably be had at a steep discount.

The problem with riding with what we have in my opinion is I don't know how you trust anyone beyond Louie Varland in the minors to provide the quantity or quality if innings Lorenzen should be able to. I think trusting Woods-Richardson, Headrick etc. Is something we don't want to do, and I think Montgomery is unrealistic in terms of what the Twins may be willing to spend. I see Lorenzen being right in the sweet spot of what they need and what they can afford.

Festa is the only one that moderately interests me in this group if they need a pitcher early in the season. SWR was really bad last year. Headrick seems like an up and down long reliever type. Canterino is currently injured himself, and Dobnak hasn't been anywhere near the guy he debuted as since he hurt his finger. You can squint on some of these guys and see a scenario where they're passable MLB starters, but that's not how you want a competitive team's rotation to look in the middle of the season.

I think its at least close. I'm confident in saying DeSclefani wasn't going to be better than Varland, but he had the job all but locked up anyways. Much like Ober starting last year in St. Paul, it's not about picking the marginally better pitcher this early. It's about making sure you can make it through the whole season and fill the innings that need to be filled. If Chris Paddack has to make a trip to the IL in May, I don't think we want the first call up to be David Festa. If two injuries hit, then it's what, Simeon Woods-Richardson? That would made the rotation a huge weakness.

Anthony DeSclafani won’t be ready to open the season; the Twins' sole external addition to the starting rotation may not throw a single pitch in 2024. Luckily, there’s a pitcher left in free agency who can save the day. Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Michael Lorenzen may be the best non-elite starter remaining on the market. In 153 innings last season, he posted a solid 4.18 ERA and was widely sought-after at the trade deadline, ultimately going from the Tigers to the Phillies. If the Twins can break the emergency glass and push payroll a bit more, Lorenzen could be a great final piece of the 2024 roster. At this point, the Twins' primary concern with the rotation has to be how they’ll fill innings. DeSclafani likely wasn’t going to be a workhorse for them, but since he was the sole starting pitcher brought in this winter, it leaves them with a huge question mark. While Lorenzen isn’t on the level of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, he can be a substantial addition, given the news. After beginning his career as a reliever (and occasional outfielder-slash-pinch-hitter), Lorenzen converted to the rotation in 2022 and made 18 starts. He followed that up by making 25 turns through the rotation in 2024. At age 32, the training wheels should be off, and the Twins can feel comfortable letting him throw as many innings as possible, assuming his health and performance warrant it. His innings total last season would have ranked fourth on the team behind Pablo López, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan, and it gives him a floor to build off of it even further in 2024. Lorenzen may not start a playoff game, but he can take the ball every fifth day in a competitive team’s rotation. Since his conversion, he’s thrown 244 innings while posting a 4.27 ERA. His pitch mix includes multiple fastballs, a whiff-inducing slider, and a solid changeup, which gives him the requisite tools to turn lineups over when things are going right. Lorenzen put that on full display in 2023. Of course, the question is whether the Twins are willing to go further than they'd originally allowed themselves, in light of their newly deepened need for a starter. Surely, they won’t fork over enough to pay Jordan Montgomery, and they were never going to be in on Blake Snell at the price for which he signed with the Giants, but if Lorenzen’s price has significantly dropped, the Twins should be willing to add a bit more to the payroll to ensure their rotation doesn’t completely collapse. After making $8.5 million last year, would Lorenzen be willing to take $5-6 million to pitch in a situation with plenty of opportunity and a chance to compete? If so, the Twins should be willing to make one last bump to the payroll. It would still leave them $20 million and change below last year’s number and insulate the depth on the roster, as they’ve shown they love to do in recent years. Louie Varland would still be stuck in St. Paul to begin the season, but he’d also be one of the best depth starters you could ask for, just like Bailey Ober in 2023. Instead of an injury leading to David Festa's debut, Varland can bring at least some experience to help stabilize the big-league roster. He’ll likely be up and pitching at Target Field in short order. DeSclafani’s clouded health forecast has raised bright red flags on how the Twins can effectively fill innings in 2024. It’s arguably reached a point where they have to plan on not getting anything from him. The unusual market has left Lorenzen unsigned, even though a pitcher of his caliber should have already found a home. The Twins need to do what’s best for the roster, and Lorenzen would be the perfect final piece. Do you agree? View full article

Given the surface-level numbers he's putting up, José Miranda appears to be having a resurgent spring training. Should we be as encouraged as his slash line suggests? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports After a lost 2023 season, José Miranda appears to be healthy again, and he should probably be a bigger topic of conversation for 2024. He’s been passed up by several players at multiple positions, and is almost guaranteed to begin the season at Triple-A. Should his spring performance be drumming up more excitement? Miranda has been one of the Twins' best hitters this spring, as his OPS currently sits near 1.000. In addition to piling up the hits, he’s even walked a handful of times. On the surface, it appears he’s locked in at the plate like we’ve seen him be at times in his career. Spring training stats always need to be taken with a grain of salt, but Miranda’s success so far should be viewed with particularly profound skepticism. Miranda has never been known for scalding the baseball. Even in 2022, when his performance made him a hopeful future piece of the offense, his average exit velocity of 89.3 miles per hour was only 55th percentile. Last year's struggles coincided with a shoulder injury, which could explain the slight drop to 87.9 mph. The hope was that Miranda would build off that middling number to some degree, but after a lost 2023 season, the numbers this spring aren’t looking all that promising. The small sample size is the key consideration here, as he could raise his average quite a bit with even one ball screaming off his barrel. Still, it would be nice to see some signs that the shoulder is healthy and that Miranda can rip into mistake pitches. His average exit velocity this spring is a paltry 83.6 MPH, and his 90th-percentile value is 100.3. A hitter showing useful big-league power is at least five miles per hour higher in each of those categories. This is reflected in his slash line. His OPS, which may bring hope on the surface, is buoyed by his on-base percentage, which is currently higher than his slugging. Of his six hits, one slicing double to the opposite field is the only one that’s gone for extra bases. His slugging so far reflects what we see in the exit velocity: This brief success isn’t reminiscent of the 2022 iteration of Miranda, who looked like he could carve out a long-term role. Of course, Miranda’s performance this spring was unlikely to have any real bearing on where he began his season, but a handful of truly well-hit balls would be encouraging. Of course, we can expect Miranda to get regular playing time in St. Paul, where the data will quickly outweigh his limited spring training appearances. Hopefully, the success we’re currently seeing leads to a more believable version in the hitter-friendly confines of CHS field. It’s great to see Miranda finding the grass with his hits again, even if it isn’t the most sustainable form of success right now. If he can come out of the spring healthy and ready to play an everyday role, it has to be considered a victory. Hopefully, some version of the 2022, extra-base-hit machine Miranda was will follow. View full article