Cody Pirkl

Even if it's just Devil's Advocate, your point seems to be "who knows? Maybe those guys could pan out and help fill the rotation" I'm just making the point that there isn't evidence of them being capable of that, and therefore I'd like to see them bring in more of a sure thing.

I think second half struggles can be expected when you move from the AL Central to the NL East, especially as he went over his career high in innings. I'm not worried about him returning to the AL Central at the back of our rotation. Theyre also not going to just flat out bench Julien based on the pitcher that day. No shot. Kirilloff already isn't going to be playing 1B over Santana very often, and I definitely don't see the correlation between groundball pitchers and who's catching.

"Prospect" has a pretty broad definition. The only pitcher in Triple-A even close to a top prospect is David Festa who threw 12 innings there last year. If you want to argue he deserves a shot at some point in 2024, I'd agree but I don't think it'd help him if he gets forced up in April or May. I don't really understand wanting to trust SWR based on a few spring innings, or Brent Headrick at all. Those two were really bad last year.

The difference is last year the Twins were very fortunate with their SP health, and Mahle was essentially the only starter they lost aside from Joe Ryan for a time. What happens if Paddack has issues coming back from his second TJ? What if Ober's injury history pops back up? The season hasn't even started yet and they're down a pitcher, and last year when it happened they also had Ober ahead of Varland. I know people are excited about SWR and see guys like Headrick as depth, but those aren't guys you want to head into the year relying on in my opinion. They weren't even effective in St. Paul last season. I also don't think Lorenzen is a "little gun". I don't think people realize how massive of a success it would be if Varland matched what Lorenzen did last year from a quantity and quality standpoint. He's a good pitcher that can probably be had at a steep discount.

The problem with riding with what we have in my opinion is I don't know how you trust anyone beyond Louie Varland in the minors to provide the quantity or quality if innings Lorenzen should be able to. I think trusting Woods-Richardson, Headrick etc. Is something we don't want to do, and I think Montgomery is unrealistic in terms of what the Twins may be willing to spend. I see Lorenzen being right in the sweet spot of what they need and what they can afford.

Festa is the only one that moderately interests me in this group if they need a pitcher early in the season. SWR was really bad last year. Headrick seems like an up and down long reliever type. Canterino is currently injured himself, and Dobnak hasn't been anywhere near the guy he debuted as since he hurt his finger. You can squint on some of these guys and see a scenario where they're passable MLB starters, but that's not how you want a competitive team's rotation to look in the middle of the season.

I think its at least close. I'm confident in saying DeSclefani wasn't going to be better than Varland, but he had the job all but locked up anyways. Much like Ober starting last year in St. Paul, it's not about picking the marginally better pitcher this early. It's about making sure you can make it through the whole season and fill the innings that need to be filled. If Chris Paddack has to make a trip to the IL in May, I don't think we want the first call up to be David Festa. If two injuries hit, then it's what, Simeon Woods-Richardson? That would made the rotation a huge weakness.

Anthony DeSclafani won’t be ready to open the season; the Twins' sole external addition to the starting rotation may not throw a single pitch in 2024. Luckily, there’s a pitcher left in free agency who can save the day. Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Michael Lorenzen may be the best non-elite starter remaining on the market. In 153 innings last season, he posted a solid 4.18 ERA and was widely sought-after at the trade deadline, ultimately going from the Tigers to the Phillies. If the Twins can break the emergency glass and push payroll a bit more, Lorenzen could be a great final piece of the 2024 roster. At this point, the Twins' primary concern with the rotation has to be how they’ll fill innings. DeSclafani likely wasn’t going to be a workhorse for them, but since he was the sole starting pitcher brought in this winter, it leaves them with a huge question mark. While Lorenzen isn’t on the level of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, he can be a substantial addition, given the news. After beginning his career as a reliever (and occasional outfielder-slash-pinch-hitter), Lorenzen converted to the rotation in 2022 and made 18 starts. He followed that up by making 25 turns through the rotation in 2024. At age 32, the training wheels should be off, and the Twins can feel comfortable letting him throw as many innings as possible, assuming his health and performance warrant it. His innings total last season would have ranked fourth on the team behind Pablo López, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan, and it gives him a floor to build off of it even further in 2024. Lorenzen may not start a playoff game, but he can take the ball every fifth day in a competitive team’s rotation. Since his conversion, he’s thrown 244 innings while posting a 4.27 ERA. His pitch mix includes multiple fastballs, a whiff-inducing slider, and a solid changeup, which gives him the requisite tools to turn lineups over when things are going right. Lorenzen put that on full display in 2023. Of course, the question is whether the Twins are willing to go further than they'd originally allowed themselves, in light of their newly deepened need for a starter. Surely, they won’t fork over enough to pay Jordan Montgomery, and they were never going to be in on Blake Snell at the price for which he signed with the Giants, but if Lorenzen’s price has significantly dropped, the Twins should be willing to add a bit more to the payroll to ensure their rotation doesn’t completely collapse. After making $8.5 million last year, would Lorenzen be willing to take $5-6 million to pitch in a situation with plenty of opportunity and a chance to compete? If so, the Twins should be willing to make one last bump to the payroll. It would still leave them $20 million and change below last year’s number and insulate the depth on the roster, as they’ve shown they love to do in recent years. Louie Varland would still be stuck in St. Paul to begin the season, but he’d also be one of the best depth starters you could ask for, just like Bailey Ober in 2023. Instead of an injury leading to David Festa's debut, Varland can bring at least some experience to help stabilize the big-league roster. He’ll likely be up and pitching at Target Field in short order. DeSclafani’s clouded health forecast has raised bright red flags on how the Twins can effectively fill innings in 2024. It’s arguably reached a point where they have to plan on not getting anything from him. The unusual market has left Lorenzen unsigned, even though a pitcher of his caliber should have already found a home. The Twins need to do what’s best for the roster, and Lorenzen would be the perfect final piece. Do you agree? View full article

Given the surface-level numbers he's putting up, José Miranda appears to be having a resurgent spring training. Should we be as encouraged as his slash line suggests? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports After a lost 2023 season, José Miranda appears to be healthy again, and he should probably be a bigger topic of conversation for 2024. He’s been passed up by several players at multiple positions, and is almost guaranteed to begin the season at Triple-A. Should his spring performance be drumming up more excitement? Miranda has been one of the Twins' best hitters this spring, as his OPS currently sits near 1.000. In addition to piling up the hits, he’s even walked a handful of times. On the surface, it appears he’s locked in at the plate like we’ve seen him be at times in his career. Spring training stats always need to be taken with a grain of salt, but Miranda’s success so far should be viewed with particularly profound skepticism. Miranda has never been known for scalding the baseball. Even in 2022, when his performance made him a hopeful future piece of the offense, his average exit velocity of 89.3 miles per hour was only 55th percentile. Last year's struggles coincided with a shoulder injury, which could explain the slight drop to 87.9 mph. The hope was that Miranda would build off that middling number to some degree, but after a lost 2023 season, the numbers this spring aren’t looking all that promising. The small sample size is the key consideration here, as he could raise his average quite a bit with even one ball screaming off his barrel. Still, it would be nice to see some signs that the shoulder is healthy and that Miranda can rip into mistake pitches. His average exit velocity this spring is a paltry 83.6 MPH, and his 90th-percentile value is 100.3. A hitter showing useful big-league power is at least five miles per hour higher in each of those categories. This is reflected in his slash line. His OPS, which may bring hope on the surface, is buoyed by his on-base percentage, which is currently higher than his slugging. Of his six hits, one slicing double to the opposite field is the only one that’s gone for extra bases. His slugging so far reflects what we see in the exit velocity: This brief success isn’t reminiscent of the 2022 iteration of Miranda, who looked like he could carve out a long-term role. Of course, Miranda’s performance this spring was unlikely to have any real bearing on where he began his season, but a handful of truly well-hit balls would be encouraging. Of course, we can expect Miranda to get regular playing time in St. Paul, where the data will quickly outweigh his limited spring training appearances. Hopefully, the success we’re currently seeing leads to a more believable version in the hitter-friendly confines of CHS field. It’s great to see Miranda finding the grass with his hits again, even if it isn’t the most sustainable form of success right now. If he can come out of the spring healthy and ready to play an everyday role, it has to be considered a victory. Hopefully, some version of the 2022, extra-base-hit machine Miranda was will follow. View full article

Matt Wallner had a fantastic rookie season, but there are plenty of question marks. It’s safe to expect his numbers to come down to Earth a bit, but what if we see the 2023 version of him again in 2024? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Matt Wallner’s 2023 got a hot start in an offense-heavy environment in St. Paul, where his production was 33% above league average by wRC+. Building on that, he finished his rookie season with a .249/.370/.507 slash line, good for 44% above league average. There’s a chance the contact problems drag him down; that risk is obvious. But if Wallner can repeat, the Twins lineup is in a fantastic spot. The Twins' lineup should be comfortably good. Projections have them around the upper third in baseball for Offensive Wins Above Replacement. It places them at the top of the AL Central in offense, requiring the pitching staff to simply hold up their end of the bargain. This is all baking in a .234/.336/.427 projection for Wallner from ZiPS, which would make him more of a capable hitter than a genuinely great one. Projections have the Twins accumulating just 1.9 wins from their left fielders, which is good for 19th in baseball. Wallner’s projections give him 1.5 Wins in 441 plate appearances. If he could come anywhere near his 2023 pace of 1.9 Wins in 254 plate appearances, instead, the Twins' left field position would be one of the top five to 10 in all of baseball. If the pitching can carry over from 2023, they’d catapult from a comfortable playoff bet to competing for a first-round bye. The Twins lost a great left-handed hitter in Jorge Polanco, who posted an .823 OPS from the left side. Joey Gallo’s .749 OPS against right-handed pitching was also surprisingly solid. The team is counting on Max Kepler to continue his production from the second half of 2023. They need Alex Kirilloff to take another step. What if Carlos Santana takes another step back from his .724 OPS against righties? If Wallner’s bat is as potent as it looked in 2023, these questions don’t carry the same weight. What the Twins saw in 2023 from the trio of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Wallner was downright incredible. Julien’s .839 OPS was the lowest of the trio, but the consensus opinion is that his elite eye at the plate makes him a pretty safe bet to continue hitting. Lewis has become a cornerstone; there’s no reason to start doubting him now. If Wallner can remain some version of his 2023 self to complete this trio of young sluggers, the Twins' lineup is set for years to come. Time will tell whether Wallner can continue to adapt back repeatedly against MLB pitching, as he worked through difficulty with that at times in 2023. If he can continue to flex his plate discipline and elite power, though, he would be adding a lot to an already solid Twins lineup. It seems too good to be true, that a Forest Lake native with Paul Bunyan-sized power would pan out to such an extent. It might not be, though. What if Matt Wallner is the player we saw in 2023? What if he’s just that good? View full article

The downside of the Twins gathering so much depth for their roster is that several MLB-worthy players are set to begin the season in Triple-A. Luckily, we’ll likely see many of them (to varying extents) in 2024. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports In 2023, the Minnesota Twins were saved by the players they called up as the season progressed. Despite several players graduating from prospect status and having locks on Opening Day roster spots, another wave of reinforcements will be in the minor leagues to begin 2024. It’s hard to rank who could be the most impactful this season, but we can try. 5. José Miranda We have to hope that Miranda’s step backward in 2023 was based on injury, but he’s likely lost his Opening Day role, regardless of whether that's true or not. It doesn’t seem like Miranda is seen as much of a third baseman at this point, leaving him confined to first base and DH. Carlos Santana has functionally filled that role, leaving Miranda to try to reestablish himself in St. Paul to begin the season. Miranda could find his way back to the Twins if injuries occur, or if someone like Santana completely falls off the cliff as he nears 40. That’s assuming Miranda can return to form. His .268/.325/.426 slash line in 2022 would fit into the lineup just fine, but he has to prove to the Twins that he’s that player, as opposed to the version of himself we saw struggle so mightily in 2023. 4. Kody Funderburk Funderburk waited far too long to get his chance in 2023, but made the most of his eventual debut, striking out over 40 percent of the hitters he faced and posting a sub-3.00 ERA, even earning a postseason roster spot. Unfortunately for Funderburk, the addition of Steven Okert from Miami gives them two MLB lefties in the bullpen. A third likely isn’t in the plans to begin the season. While a lefty reliever role may be less impactful, Funderburk's dominance in his brief debut last year suggests he could pitch some big innings if needed. He could also pitch more innings than expected if someone like Caleb Thielbar suffers more injuries in his late 30s. 3. Austin Martin Martin’s fate of beginning the year in St. Paul was likely sealed with the Manuel Margot addition, but there may still be plenty of opportunity in 2024. Martin can play center field, left field, or second base, and his offensive profile would be a great complement to a lineup that still has plenty of power and swing-and-miss. Even if Byron Buxton can remain relatively healthy this season, he may get some time off his feet for bumps and bruises, to ensure he’s available for the long haul. It’s also possible that Margot either doesn’t meet expectations or becomes expendable throughout the season. Kyle Farmer will be platooning at second, and any time missed would also open time for Martin. If he can play as he did down the stretch last season in St. Paul, he could find some playing time in a lineup that seemingly always needs another right-handed bat. 2. Brooks Lee Brooks Lee is nearing MLB readiness, and could debut early in 2024. He wasn’t as impressive in his St. Paul debut, but a solid start could push a decision on the Twins. It’s hard to say where he’ll play when he arrives, but the 2022 eighth overall pick looks talented enough to call him up and figure the logistics out later. The Twins plan to use Lee more creatively early this season, to make him an option all across the infield. We could see him up if Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Santana, Royce Lewis, or Carlos Correa hit the IL. With the pedigree Lee carries, he could undoubtedly get called up for a cup of coffee and never get sent back down. 1. Louie Varland Varland will get the Bailey Ober treatment this spring, as the Twins have insulated the rotation with innings, even if it can be argued that Varland is a better pitcher than some who will make the trip north. He struggled down the stretch as a starter last year, but has little to prove in the minor leagues. Given the nature of pitcher health, Varland could make his 2024 debut exceptionally early with the Twins, as he’ll be the first in line should an injury occur. Beyond that, it’s possible someone like Chris Paddack needs an IL stint here or there for maintenance. Anthony DeSclafani’s injury history could pop up, or he could simply prove unable to stick as a viable starter for a team with playoff aspirations. It’s a safe bet that Varland will throw a good chunk of innings in MLB this season, just as Ober did last year despite beginning in Triple-A. He could be the most impactful call-up of 2024 when his time comes. There’s a lengthy list of names that we’ll see called up in 2024, and while these five are good bets to make an impact, there’s no telling whether we get a surprising 2024 version of Brock Stewart, for example. Do you agree with the order? Are there any other minor leaguers who could make a significant impact? Let us know below! View full article

Bobby Witt Jr.’s recent extension guarantees him $288.7 million and could keep him in Kansas City for 11 years, assuming he doesn’t exercise his opt-outs. What might a similar move look like to keep Royce Lewis in Minnesota for the long run? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Royce Lewis and Bobby Witt Jr. have their similarities. Both are freak athletes who can contribute in any way imaginable on the field. Any team employing them is exceptionally fortunate, as both high first-round picks seem destined for greatness. There are also, however, several relevant differences when comparing a potential Lewis extension to the one Witt Jr. signed. Lewis will turn 25 this June, while the Royals star will turn 24, a surprising reality considering Witt Jr. has an advantage of over 1,000 MLB plate appearances. That extra year in age may not sound like much, but Lewis has an extra year of team control and could already be beyond his prime when he is set to become a free agent--especially given his health history. That past knee trouble is the other consideration, and it’s a huge one. Lewis’s injury history is no secret. Two torn ACL tears are certainly a factor in the process of finding an agreeable price for a long-term team investment. So are the oblique and hamstring injuries he suffered in 2023. Players rarely get healthier as they age, and an extension for Lewis would be an even bigger bet on his health than Byron Buxton's team-friendly deal was on him. As electric a player Lewis is, the Twins have to be smart in considering whether the injuries could draw away from his performance or keep him off the field altogether. That being said, it’s easy to argue that Lewis is the type of player worth gambling on. So what might a deal look like that both sides agree to? It’s hard to say for sure with the creativity allowed in many of these deals these days (to wit, Kansas City offering several consecutive opt-outs). It’s hard to say that Lewis should be directly on par with Witt Jr.'s extension, but it’s a good benchmark. Something in the ballpark of 10 years and $210 million may be in the sweet spot. Instead of consecutive opt-outs at the end of the deal, perhaps he has one in year seven or eight, when he would still be young enough to pursue another contract if he feels he can beat the remainder of the deal. This is still a deal that considers Lewis’s sky-high ceiling, though the lesser number in years and average annual value reflects his extra year of age, injury concerns, and shorter track record of big-league dominance. The first question is whether it makes sense for Lewis, a Scott Boras client, who could earn much more with a healthy season resembling his production thus far in his career. The second question is whether it makes sense for the Twins, who aren’t at risk of losing Lewis soon. With the opt-outs in this particular scenario, Lewis may still be able to leave a year or two after he’s already set to hit free agency, limiting the payoff of the extension if he becomes the generational player he’s capable of being. While his salary will ramp up with each year of arbitration, those numbers are based partially on his performance. The Twins certainly wouldn’t mind giving Lewis healthy pay increases if he’s producing. The tricky thing about such a vast extension is that it has to work for both sides when weighing risk and reward. The Royals and Wit were able to match up and keep him in town for what could well be his entire MLB career. It’s hard to imagine the Twins and Royce Lewis won’t at least try to do the same. Does the proposed deal seem realistic to secure Royce Lewis for years to come? Should the Twins or Royce Lewis himself be wary of signing an extension with the lack of consistent track record in his career so far? Let us know below! View full article

After a start delayed by rehab from his 2022 torn ACL, Royce Lewis had an unbelievable 2023 season. Good health will be a must moving forward, but what can we expect from the third baseman if he can stay on the field? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports PECOTA takes on the difficult task of finding player comparisons every year, based on what they’ve already accomplished and projected to accomplish in the future. Royce Lewis has his fair share of question marks, and there’s a wide range of outcomes regarding the kind of player he can be for the rest of his career. To which players does Lewis compare best so far, according to PECOTA? Wilmer Flores Flores has had a solid career, while flying under the radar. He's never shown elite walk rates or excessive whiff rates, a profile many expect to see from Royce Lewis. After a slow start to his career, he’s finished each of the last eight seasons as an above-league-average hitter. After moving around the infield, Flores has primarily settled in at first base as he’s reached his early 30s, but this is a comparison to the younger Flores, who primarily played on the left side of the infield. In parts of eleven seasons, Flores has slashed a respectable .264/.319/.441. While Flores isn’t the generational player the Twins hope Lewis can become, there are worse outcomes for Lewis, as a player who’s lost a ton of time to injury and has some red flags for regression. A Flores-level outcome may sound disappointing, but he’s been a solid contributor to some great teams over the years. Ketel Marte Marte is cut from the same cloth when it comes to offensive approach. He’s had something of an up-and-down career. Unlike Flores, Marte has shown superstar upside for at least a season here and there. He's been a valuable contributor year in and year out, while occasionally popping a .900+ OPS season, as he did in 2019 and 2021. Like Lewis, Marte has suffered injuries that have held him back on occasion. He’s had a few “what if” seasons as he’s dealt with hamstring issues, though he’s been a core piece for Arizona when on the field and, at times, one of the premier bats in all of baseball. Marte may not be a perennial MVP candidate, but Lewis following something resembling this career path is an intriguing notion. It's not hard to envision him spending at least a year or two moonlighting in the outfield, as Marte has done over his arc. Nolan Arenado Arenado is the 99th-percentile outcome of any player who bursts onto the MLB scene. With a career OPS of .871 and hours of highlight-reel plays under his belt at third base, Arenado is on a path to the Hall of Fame. He’s yet another player who relies on consistent, high-quality contact, rather than taking his walks or selling out for power. It’s unfair to expect any player to have an Arenado-level career, which is why PECOTA even mentioning him as a Lewis comp is impressive. Lewis showed in his debut that he has the talent to be a special player, and no matter how unlikely this outcome is, it’s worth being excited, knowing some experts can at least see a scenario where he follows this path. Bonus: Aramis Ramírez While PECOTA didn’t compare Lewis to Aramis Ramírez, it’s worth mentioning the beloved former third baseman as a comparison. Ramírez struck out 26.2% of the time in his rookie season, and never eclipsed 18% again in his 18-year career. He only walked 10% of the time twice. While he had some great years as a defender at third base, Ramírez was best known for his bat, particularly in the clutch. He owned a career slash line of .308/.381/.531 in high-leverage situations. Some may not believe in the “clutch gene,” but Ramírez proved he was a player you wanted up with the game on the line for his entire career--one that lasted just under twenty years. Ramírez is another player whose plate approach matches what should be expected from Lewis moving forward. While Lewis came up as a shortstop, he’s more good than great as a defender at third base. Though it comes in a small sample, Lewis has no shortage of enormous hits in his young career, and that’s reflected in his high-leverage slash line of .441/.472/.971. With the game on the line, Lewis is the man you want at the plate. For those who followed the Cubs and Brewers in the 2000s and the 2010s, the comparison to Ramírez seems spot-on. If he could stick around Twins Territory for a decade or so and do what Ramírez spent much of his career doing, Lewis would soar above any of the current projection systems' expectations for him. Which PECOTA comparison seems the most likely outcome for Royce Lewis? Is there another player that sticks out as a good comparison to that PECOTA missed, such as Aramis Ramirez? Let us know below! View full article

Whether they’re evaluating pitchers or position players, the Twins appear to have some apparent philosophies they believe in and characteristics they look for. With this in mind, one player could surprisingly fall out of favor. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Despite being a former first-round pick and top prospect who has reached the MLB level, Alex Kirilloff has had a difficult professional career thus far. Repeated wrist injuries have limited his performance and availability for multiple years. After two slow seasons in 2021 and 2022, he showed his talent by posting a .793 OPS in 2023. Unfortunately, it came in 88 games, as a shoulder injury limited him again. Injury should be the primary concern with Kirilloff, but the Twins may see some red flags even apart from the health risk. Kirilloff made some gains in 2023, by pumping his walk rate up to 8.8%. It’s a mark he’s never reached in anything close to an entire season, and the hope is that this is a newfound skill, as he’s long been considered a reasonably free swinger. Despite the signs of refinement in approach he showed, though, Kirilloff has yet to show he can consistently impact the baseball, a skill the Twins value highly. Among 17 Twins players with at least 50 batted-ball events in 2023, Kirilloff ranked 13th in hard-hit percentage, only ahead of players such as Kyle Farmer, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro. He ranked 12th in barrels per plate appearance, and his maximum exit velocity ranked 15th. Here's a scatterplot showing all the Twins hitters' 90th-percentile exit velocities for 2023, and their slugging average on contact. Only four are to the left of the vertical line marking the average mark for 90th-percentile EV: Donovan Solano, Farmer, Vázquez, and Kirilloff. The latter is the one in the box. He's not all that close to the average mark, even, and he doesn't have the lift-and-pull approach the Twins have exalted for the last half-decade, either. Yet, he has showed (in a limited sample) that he can be an above-average hitter despite these measures, so what’s the problem? The Twins have shown they’re willing to make any move, if they feel a value discrepancy between themselves and another team. Despite Kirilloff’s pedigree and history of eye-popping numbers in the minor leagues, the data he’s put out doesn’t align with some of the offensive philosophies this organization believes in. Another organization may see his exit velocities as a non-issue and view Alex Kirilloff as the long-term answer at first base. If the Twins are less confident, that’s often when we see them make surprising moves. The Twins haven’t had a long-term player at first base in some time, but they have no shortage of options for the future. Even after Jorge Polanco was shipped out of town, an infield log jam is coming. Edouard Julien has already spent brief periods at first base, and with Brooks Lee nearing MLB-readiness and Julien’s shakiness defensively, it’s not out of the question that he could be a long-term answer. Though he’s no Matt Wallner when it comes to loud contact, his established on-base ability and the power he’s flashed would fit in just fine at a corner spot. Julien had 16 home runs in 408 plate appearances as a rookie. Kirilloff has just 22 of them in over 700 career trips to the plate. As for Wallner, the Twins will likely want to keep him in the outfield for as long as possible with his arm, but his physical build and offensive skillset also make him a candidate to move into the infield at some point. That timeline could be sped up should the need arise, and if other outfield options start to break through in the next few years. Similar to Wallner, though with more immediate question marks, is Trevor Larnach. Though many have given up on a Larnach breakout season, he’s similar to Wallner in size and offensive skillset. If Larnach can figure out non-fastballs, some time at first base may be a way to get his bat in the lineup more often. Kirilloff also shares another concern with the last few Twins players who were painfully traded away. Both Luis Arráez and Jorge Polanco had significant injury concerns. In each case, the Twins found a team willing to gamble on the players' availability in a big way. The Twins had replacements at the ready and could add reinforcements elsewhere. After the disaster of the 2022 season, the Twins could still be afraid of being left holding the bag when it comes to injuries, and Kirilloff's health history is as murky as it gets. Is Kirilloff at risk of being traded in the immediate future? Probably not, though it’s hard to rule anything out with how this front office has operated late in the offseason. They likely still think highly of the former top prospect, and the ceiling is still high. The concern is that Kirilloff meets some of the criteria of former Twins who were traded away, to the dismay of fans. Pair his lack of durability with a style at the plate that doesn’t quite match up with the organizational philosophy for hitters, and if a team comes calling on a left-handed corner bat, Kirilloff could lose the tiebreaker to other players. Could Kirilloff’s offensive profile and injury risk make him available on the trade market? Should the Twins make an exception to how they value offensive players and believe in his prospect pedigree? Let us know below! Research assistance provided by TruMedia. View full article

The Twins hopefully still have a move coming to address the rotation, but it’s becoming more likely that the position player side is set. With the center field remaining a question mark, it may be worth breaking down where the Twins sit. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports In 2023, the Twins did well to insulate center field with Michael A. Taylor. They knew Byron Buxton wouldn’t be ready to play to begin the season, and as it turned out, he never advanced beyond DH duties. Many hoped they would do the same in 2024 despite some optimism around Buxton’s repaired knee, but the current group may be what they’ll go with. So, what can we expect in center field in 2024? Byron Buxton Buxton is a significant question mark, as he's reached 100 games played in center field once in his career (2017) and hasn't reached 80 games played at the position since 2019. He underwent surgery on his ailing knee again this offseason, and the Twins are hopeful that he can return to form in some facet in 2024. Buxton’s upside remains one of the highest on the entire roster, and if healthy, he’s the undisputed everyday center fielder for as long as he can physically handle it. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether the Twins would be better off getting a locked and loaded starting worthy center fielder should things go south again in 2024. Buxton’s health could have a massive swing on the Twins season. Willi Castro Willi Castro is approaching Astudillo-esque folk hero status in Twins territory, deservedly so. He had a career year in which he showed versatility and chaos-inducing baserunning while finishing as an above-average hitter. After being thrust into center field action, he adjusted and made himself a viable option. Castro is likely the first in line should Buxton miss time again, and the hope is that 2023 was a breakout season and not an outlier. As a switch hitter, Castro can hold his own in center field as a near-everyday option for what should be a potent lineup around him if it comes to that. Nick Gordon Nick Gordon continued to mix into center field when a foul ball off his shin knocked him out for the entire second half of the 2023 season. He certainly has the athleticism to hold down the position. However, he’ll likely still have some learning on the fly after advancing through the minor leagues predominantly as a middle infielder. Gordon struggled mightily before his injury last season, with a .503 OPS in his 93 plate appearances. It’s possible this was just a small sample slump, but what the Twins think of the former top prospect is unclear. Now, out of options, Gordon will have to earn a roster spot out of Spring Training as a 4th or 5th outfielder, and the ability to play center field would help his chances tremendously. Austin Martin Austin Martin’s bat showed some life in St. Paul last year, following up an injury-delayed and slow start to his season by slashing .287/.428/.456 the last two months. At this point, he’s likely to wind up either at second base or the outfield, and the Twins and Martin himself seem confident he can play a solid center field. Martin will debut in 2024; it’s just a matter of when and where. Like Gordon, he’s a former infield prospect who likely needs more experience to hone his outfield skills. If he can play a solid center field, the offensive concerns become less of an issue, but it was encouraging to see him show some pop down the stretch in 2023. Bubba Thompson Bubba Thompson was claimed by the Twins this week on waivers. The former first-round pick has bounced around the league but boasts the third-highest sprint speed in baseball. This makes him an obvious candidate to play some center field, though what he can provide beyond that remains to be seen. Thompson has a career .591 OPS in just under 250 at-bats, and his minor-league track record suggests this may not be a fluke. Regarding the Twins needing a right-handed outfield bat, Thompson has hit southpaws worse in his career so far. It’s possible he doesn’t head north with the team come Opening Day, but it’s easy to see why the Twins took a flier on the speedy former top prospect. The Twins probably have more options for center field than most teams, but the list is riddled with question marks. From health to performance to inexperience, center field may be one of the more fluid positions on the 2024 roster. The Twins are banking on one of these players putting together a solid season up the middle, and to be fair, there’s a lot of potential for things to turn out exceptionally well. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether they should have done more to set a floor at the position as we’ve seen them do so much in years past. There are still a few options left should they still decide to do so, but it’s unclear whether this is a priority. Can the Twins get an adequate return from their current group of center fielders in 2024? Should they still be looking to add a more established name to this group should things break the wrong way? Let us know below! View full article

Joe Ryan’s 2023 season fell apart due to injury after a dominant start. Can better health and a few adjustments help him sustain that success throughout 2024? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports Joe Ryan had a 3.70 ERA through his first 107 innings in 2023 before that number ballooned to 6.09 in 54.2 second-half innings. A groin injury is a likely explanation, but pairing better health with a few adjustments could make him the front-end starting pitcher the Twins desperately need after Sonny Gray’s departure. Joe Ryan was rolling along in a dominant 2023 season when he allowed five homers in three innings to a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup on June 27. He would make six more starts, never looking quite the same before he admitted to an ongoing groin injury, which ultimately sent him to the IL. He did return and even made a start in the postseason, but the Twins clearly had lost faith, and Ryan looked far from his dominant first-half self. It’s a fair assumption that Joe Ryan and the Twins won’t just be banking on good health. They’ll likely be looking to make a few adjustments to his game as well. Joe Ryan was thought of as a fastball-only pitcher by many when the Twins acquired him. He had some risk of becoming a reliever with his lack of pitch mix variety. Homers have certainly been the Achilles' heel of his career thus far, as his rate of allowing the long ball has increased year over year consistently since reaching the MLB. Notably, Ryan has allowed 56 homers, with 31 coming on his fastball. He still uses the pitch over half of the time, and while it’s responsible for many of his strikeouts and a good bit of poor contact, it has gotten punished when hitters catch up to it. As he’s dropped the fastball usage from 65% in 2021 to 56.9% in 2023, he’s also diversified his arsenal. In 2022, the Twins introduced a sweeper into his repertoire. The pitch succeeded in minimal sample size, and he used it even more in 2023 with positive results. The sweeper became his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a 32.3% whiff rate, and was an excellent counter to tough right-handed hitters. In 2023, Ryan added a splitter and instantly made it his second most used pitch, using it plenty against right and left-handed hitters. The pitch replaced Ryan's straight change in 2022, which had uneven results. Ryan now has a pitch mix that should be capable of turning over lineups 3+ times when he’s at his best. The trick in 2024 will be perfecting the actual mix. The Twins may believe that the 56.9% of the time Ryan used his heater in 2023 is still too high. While nobody else on the Twins compares to Joe Ryan regarding effectiveness with their fastball, it’s interesting to compare him to the rest of the rotation. Pablo Lopez throws his fastball less than 35% of the time. Ober threw his 45.7% of the time. Chris Paddack’s fastball has had a similar reputation to Joe Ryan’s throughout his career, and it’s noteworthy that in his limited debut with the Twins in 2022, he threw his dominant four seams a career-low 51.8% of the time and looked like the best version of himself before the injury. We can likely count on Joe Ryan lowering the fastball usage even more in 2024, and as he gets more comfortable with his offspeed pitches, it should only help him. Joe Ryan’s 2023 came to a quiet end as he was skipped over several times in the playoffs before being essentially used as an opener in the season finale last October. His injury and late-season struggles have likely made us forget just how good his season began, and the year as a whole was filled with positives for a pitcher who was once thought to have only one usable offering. Another step forward is undoubtedly in the cards for Joe Ryan, as he and the Twins will continue to fine-tune his approach. The hope is that he can return a clean bill of health in 2024, as he’d shown for the entirety of his professional career before 2023. If the second half of the season made you forget, here’s your reminder: Joe Ryan will be a massive piece of the 2024 rotation. View full article