Dave Overlund

Hi folks. This is my third post in my series about Minnesota Twins baseball cards. Please read my first post here for deeper detail on my series.
1968 TOPPS
The 1968 Topps set is one of my personal favorites which is interesting because I find the look rather ugly, but I really like some of the Twins cards. The set’s cards are standard size, with kind of a burlap looking border. The player’s name is at the bottom with a colored circle showing his team and position. The set has a couple of my favorite multi-player cards ever and Rod Carew’s first stand-alone Topps card (#80) as well as an all-star card (#363). There are a whopping 37 Twins cards in the set.
THE BEST
With this set, I might run into a problem for my personal choice of best and favorite. There are more than a few cards to choose from that fit both categories. As far as value, both the #490 Super Stars card with Harmon Killebrew, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle, and the #480 Manager’s Dream card with Tony Oliva, Chico Cardenas, and Roberto Clemente rank high. I don’t always want to equate value with best, but in this case my choice for best card has to be the Super Stars card. The card has three Hall of Famers who as a group hit 1,769 home runs. Three of the top 18 HR hitters ever…on one card!! Quite a bit of firepower on one single card.
                        
PERSONAL FAVORITE
For my personal favorite I am going to select the Rod Carew (#80). You just got to love Rod Carew’s first solo card. I like the pose and the Topps rookie cup. Like I said in a previous post about Tony Oliva, Carew just looks so young here.

And like my statement above about firepower on a single card, the AL RBI Leaders card also has three Hall of Famers in Carl Yastrzemski, Harmon Killebrew, and Frank Robinson. I really like these types of leader cards with multiple Hall of Famers. This card represents 1,611 career home runs and 5,240 career RBI. A lot of history there.

I’m going to choose the Carew as my favorite Twins card in the set, but I really, really like that Super Stars card above as well.
MOST OBSCURE PLAYER
Cal Ermer did manage a major league baseball team, but only briefly. He previously had a very limited playing career. He went 0-3 in his lone MLB game for the Senators in 1947, was a long-time coach and manager in the Senators/Twins organization, who ended up managing the Twins for part of 1967 and all of 1968. I thought he was the right choice for most obscure player/coach in the 1968 Twins set, but then I read about right-handed pitcher Moe Ogier.

Maurice “Moe” Ogier appeared on a dual rookie card (#589) with Ron Clark. Mr. Ogier made the 1968 Twins opening day roster but was sent to the minor leagues shortly thereafter to make room for Jim Kaat after Kaat was activated from the disabled list for an elbow injury dating to the prior season. Ogier didn’t pitch that season – or ever – in the major leagues. Ogier played six years in the Twins minor league system. His record was 36-37. His minor league strikeout numbers were rather good especially for that era, but his WHIP was also high. He pitched later in the Angels and Padres systems. He never made the majors, but he did have this baseball card.
While researching this post, I learned a new phrase that I had not heard before – phantom ballplayer. According to Wikipedia, a phantom ballplayer is a player who spent time on an active roster but never appeared in a game. That sounds to me like a definition for obscure. Moe Ogier is the choice here.
If you disagree with my opinions, I would love to see your opinions, criticisms, and suggestions in the comments below. Don’t be too hard on me. Let’s have fun with this!

Joe Pohald recently stated that he and his family are “just trying to right-size our business.” when he was asked about the $120M payroll for 2024, which is ranked 20 out of the 30 teams.  When I think of the term “right-sizing”, I think of the promise that was made when we approved and funded the stadium for the Twins.  The promise that the Pohlad family made in an 08/13/2008 Star Tribune article called “TWIN CITIES SPORTS OWNERS: the pohlads, minnesota twins BAND OF BROTHERS EXTENDS A LEGACY”

In another 2008 article Dave St. Peter stated:

Are the Twins in the process of “right-sizing” their payroll of $120M to match revenue of $240M?  That is a laughable suggestion but let’s back that up with facts.  We know as a fact from the last collective bargaining agreement that all teams get $200 million in revenue sharing.  In addition, it is widely believed that the Twins are getting $40 million+ this year from BSN.  So, without lifting a finger, playing a game, or even having a second to lie to its fans the Twins are making enough revenue to make the 50% rule work for the current payroll.
What might a team make beyond the revenue sharing and TV deal?  We can estimate that by looking at the Braves and see they made $528 million in 2023 due to their public disclosures as part of Liberty Media.  We also know that the Braves TV Deal is for $68 million a year so if you subtract that and the $200 million in revenue sharing you get $260 million in stadium, licensing, merchandise, etc… revenue.  With the Twin Cities metro area roughly being 60% the size of the Braves let’s assume that the Twins can only generate 60% of the same baseball revenue ($260*60%=$156 million).  The Twins are looking at $396 million in revenue based on this model and are spending only 30% on payroll.  

There is no other way to look at this other than a broken promise made to taxpayers and a money grab by some Nepo-babies.
 

Last night I was at the game and, of course, had to take my five-year-old souvenir shopping. We were checking out the game-used booth when this caught my eye. 

That's right my friends, an empty, unsigned, completely unremarkable EMPTY bucket of gum for the low, low price of $300. How do they sell this with a straight face?!
We got him a Duran jersey instead! 
 

Last night I was at the game and, of course, had to take my five-year-old souvenir shopping. We were checking out the game-used booth when this caught my eye. 

That's right my friends, an empty, unsigned, completely unremarkable EMPTY bucket of gum for the low, low price of $300. How do they sell this with a straight face?!
We got him a Duran jersey instead! 
 

Last night I was at the game and, of course, had to take my five-year-old souvenir shopping. We were checking out the game-used booth when this caught my eye. 

That's right my friends, an empty, unsigned, completely unremarkable EMPTY bucket of gum for the low, low price of $300. How do they sell this with a straight face?!
We got him a Duran jersey instead! 
 

Last night I was at the game and, of course, had to take my five-year-old souvenir shopping. We were checking out the game-used booth when this caught my eye. 

That's right my friends, an empty, unsigned, completely unremarkable EMPTY bucket of gum for the low, low price of $300. How do they sell this with a straight face?!
We got him a Duran jersey instead! 
 

Last night I was at the game and, of course, had to take my five-year-old souvenir shopping. We were checking out the game-used booth when this caught my eye. 

That's right my friends, an empty, unsigned, completely unremarkable EMPTY bucket of gum for the low, low price of $300. How do they sell this with a straight face?!
We got him a Duran jersey instead! 
 

Last night I was at the game and, of course, had to take my five-year-old souvenir shopping. We were checking out the game-used booth when this caught my eye. 

That's right my friends, an empty, unsigned, completely unremarkable EMPTY bucket of gum for the low, low price of $300. How do they sell this with a straight face?!
We got him a Duran jersey instead! 
 

Saint Paul, Minnesota - A unique start to the game with the first three hits coming in the form of solo home runs. The Saints were able to hang around when Hunter Greene (MLB Rehab Assignment) was pitching before breaking through, scoring five in the fifth to pick up an 8-5 win over the Louisville Bats on Thursday night in front of 8,456. The Saints improved to 64-46 on the season. 
Matt Reynolds hit his 19th home run of the season, which gave Louisville a 1-0 lead. 
Trevor Larnach tied the game at one with his 11th home run of the season in the bottom of the first. 
There are not many games where the first three hits are home runs, but this game that was the case. The third hit of the game came in the second, Noelvi Marte hit his third home run of the season, and this gave Louisville a 2-1 lead. 
In the third, Alejo Lopez walked with one out. Next, Reynolds singled followed by a single from Nick Martini, which brought home Lopez. Henry Ramos hit a sacrifice fly to give the Bats a 4-1 lead. 
Andrew Stevenson hit his 14th home run of the season. 
The Saints got within one in the fourth. Kyle Garlick walked with one out and Jair Camargo doubled to bring home Garlick, and the Saints trail 4-3. 
The Saints broke the game open in the fifth; however, the Bats pitching did not do them any favors. Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Anthony Prato, and Yunior Severino all walked. This was four straight walks, and this tied the game at four. Next, Kyle Garlick hit a sacrifice fly to center, which gave the Saints a 5-4 lead. Later in the inning, Gilberto Celestino hit his seventh double of the season. This one went off the right field wall and gave St. Paul an 8-4 lead.
Henry Ramos hit his ninth home run of the season for the Bats to lead off the sixth, but that is all Louisville would get. The Saints shut the door the rest of the way, which secured an 8-5 win. 
Michael Boyle picked up his second win of the season for the Saints. Ronny Henriquez is credited with his second hold, and Kody Funderburk picked up his third save. 
The Louisville Bats and St. Paul Saints meet in game four of a six-game series at CHS Field on Friday night. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. The Bats will send RHP Levi Stoudt (3-3, 5.13) while the Saints will counter with RHP Louie Varland (6-0, 4.53). The game can be seen on the Saints Broadcast Network, MiLB.TV, and heard on KFAN Plus, 96.7 FM. 

The Twins are projected for 81 wins this coming season, which is fairly generous for a team coming off a 78-84 season that is losing its MVP in Carlos Correa. The front office is on the hot seat, having failed to win a playoff game in their six year tenure after inheriting a young, cheap and talented roster prior to 2017. That front office believes in its process to the point it apparently feels comfortable running back pretty much the same guys and hoping that fewer injuries vaults them up the standings. A recent Gleeman and the Geek mailbag episode featured a discussion of whether the Twins process lined up with its results. Gleeman and our fearless leader eventually came to the conclusion that the front office’s process was a little ahead of the results, but not by as much as said front office would hope. I am about to argue the opposite.
 
The plan going into the 2017 season was to develop the emerging young players (Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Sanó) into cheap, controllable stars, avoid long-term commitments unless they came at a steep discount, develop home-grown pitching, try to find unlockable pitchers off the scrap heap using newfound analytics and tech, and become a sustainable winner on a budget, much like Cleveland. But is the front office sticking to that?
 
It certainly is an improvement. Part of the problem with the Terry Ryan regime was that the team never sold high on any of its assets, letting Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, Jason Kubel and the like play out their years of team control or let them lose all their trade value through injury or under-performance and get flipped for a bag of balls. This kept the farm system gutted and resulted in the kind of painful rebuild this new regime is now trying to avoid.
Will they avoid it? Let’s examine their process and match it up to reality.
 
They definitely have kept the books clean, with only Byron Buxton’s team-friendly deal carrying any real weight. Many Twins fans blamed Joe Mauer’s contract extension as the reason the team fell out of contention in the early 2010’s, but any logical person knows that the previous core got old and there was no one to replace them. The Twins also didn’t get any value out of that core before they got old or ineffective. That’s how Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Oakland have contention windows open longer than a team like the Royals, who rode with its stars from its World Series runs, gave some of them extensions and watched it all fall apart. They did take advantage of the two playoff runs they got, but that’s an awfully short time to be relevant, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight.
 
As far as developing their own pitching, the Twins haven’t shown much. While Cleveland and Tampa Bay churn out a new four WAR pitcher every year, all we have to show for ourselves is Bailey Ober and the reliever versions of Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. Matt Canterino and Blayne Enlow look like sure relievers at this point, Jordan Balazovic is a mess, and Louie Varland has a ceiling of a third starter. Cade Povich looked good, but was traded for Jorge López. Ditto Steven Hajjar, who was included in the Tyler Mahle trade. Josh Winder gets lit up on every fastball he throws, so all hopes land on Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya at this point, neither of whom are close to the majors. After six years, one would expect a little more from a front office that claimed to specialize in this area. They have added pitching talent via trade, and it looks like that will need to continue.
 
The way the Twins’ roster currently sits is intriguing in its lack of second and third year arbitration players. That sets up a lot of value to be gained if some of those players turn into stars, like Luis Arraez for instance. He’s now an All-Star utility player who just won a batting championship. We know his flaws here locally: his knees wear down and he doesn’t offer much at third and second base defensively. But for a team looking for that difference-maker in the playoffs, Arraez looks plenty enticing, which I am sure is why the Twins are listening to offers on him currently. Doing so has the potential to bring back multiple Arraez’s who are potentially cheaper. Winning that kind of trade is exactly the kind of process Falvey and Levine should value if they want a Cleveland style contention window, but they haven’t done much of that, either. So far, the team has traded Jose Berrios for two likely big league contributors, (how much they contribute is very much in question) traded the last year of Taylor Rogers for three years of a talented starting pitcher in Chris Paddack, and traded a young pitcher, Brusdar Graterol, who was destined for relief work for four years of Kenta Maeda. All of those trades netted the team positive value, and none of them made the team worse in the immediate future considering how bad Rogers and Berrios have been.
 
The tough pill to swallow is that to truly compete at a Cleveland-Tampa level, young stars will have to be traded near the peak of their career, not just when they get expensive in arbitration. Look at the Mike Clevinger trade from 2020. In exchange for two and a half years of Clevinger, who to that point was coming off of three years with a combined 152 ERA+, Cleveland received Josh Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, Cal Quantrill and Joey Cantillo. Two of those guys, Naylor and Quantrill, are established starters on a division winning team. Shortstop Arias and starting pitcher Cantillo are rookies who both figure to play big roles in their next one to two seasons with Arias ranking number 57 on Baseball-Prospectus’ mid-season rankings. Hedges was their catcher this past year, and Miller their top pinch hitter. Those last two are disappointments for Cleveland, but the trade was a massive success even without their inclusion. Clevinger got hurt immediately once he became a Padre, sat out 2021 and was ineffective in 2022. The trades of Berrios, Graterol and Rogers were a net positive, but unless Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson significantly outperform expectations, they didn’t do much to stack the roster for the future. Getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez for Mitch Garver was a reasonable play, but trading him after 2019, knowing he wasn’t likely to age well and that his defense was just okay, could have set the team up at multiple positions. It just doesn’t seem like that’s part of the Falvine process.
 
Which is unfortunate because the front office has to make unpopular decisions if it wants to compete against teams that can spend more and absorb bad contracts. Of course the Twins could certainly raise payroll, but they have shown that they won’t, and even if they did, luring free agents to Minnesota has proven to be a tough sell. They need to overpay, but they have shown they will not look stupid by giving a player “too much money.” Brandon Nimmo, for instance, has never been a 162M player, but the Mets wanted him so they paid him 30-40% more than was projected. If Nimmo continues being who he is, a three WAR player without power who can stick in center field for a few years, the contract won’t age well. But the Mets don’t care, and if the Twins front office wants to toe the line between the Cleveland-Tampa model and the Phillies-Padres one, they will have to show a free agent they don’t care either. Once in a while, at least.
 
They could also follow the Atlanta Braves model and sign all their emerging stars to team-friendly extensions. These contracts can look bad, as well- just ask the Mariners about Evan White, or the Cardinals about Paul DeJong. The pay-off is enormous though, as you can keep your roster flush with stars without having to trade your next star for it. The Twins are in a position to make some of those types of deals, with Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and Jose Miranda potentially big parts of the team’s future. Some of that crop has injury issues, which is bad, but also depreciates the value of any extension that player might sign. You might be able to get three years of Kirilloff’s or Ober’s free agency for 30M each. Duran might be the next reliever to secure a 100M contract, but if he agreed to a buyout of his arbitration years plus two more for a total of 40M, that could pay off handsomely and he might accept it, given his history of arm injuries in the minors.
 
All three routes, early trades, overpaying free agents and extending pre-arbitration guys, require a little luck, but that’s why you have a sophisticated and robust scouting and analytic presence. You have to trust your guys and take some risks, and right now the Twins are stuck in limbo, afraid to lose prospects who may blossom elsewhere, to overpay for free agents, or to hand out extensions to players who may end up chronically injured or bad.
The sad truth is that avoiding long-term commitments and getting value out of scrap heap pitchers isn’t much of a process, especially when the pitching pipeline is bare. They won’t overpay like the Padres, Phillies or Mariners, they won’t deal guys at the peak of their value like Cleveland and Tampa, and they don’t extend hardly any of them early either, like the Braves.They just wait for their prospects and hope to get lucky with a Josh Donaldson or Correa. They will describe this non-action as being opportunistic.
 
The team has assembled a good amount of talent, but without the intentionality of those other teams, there is less cohesion; the team just grabs what talent it can and crams it all together. That isn’t so much to say that Joey Gallo is a bad fit, as it is to say the front office never gets their first, second or third choice in free agency or in trades. The Twins needed a frontline pitcher at the deadline and it seemed like they got one in Tyler Mahle. Except Mahle was hurt. He and the Twins hoped it wouldn’t be a problem, but it was. If he hadn't just come back from shoulder problems, the Twins would have had to give up more than the three good prospects they did give up, such as someone the national media actually knew about or who played on the big league roster. Their likely first choice, Mahle’s teammate with the Reds, Luis Castillo, ended up going to the Mariners for a boatload of prospects that surely gave the Twins and Yankees a feeling of relief. But the Mariners wanted an ace for their return to the playoffs, he was the missing piece that team needed, and that team ended up beating a formidable Blue Jays team on the road in the wild-card round, and playing the Astros tougher than any other team, as it turned out. Even before signing Castillo to an extension, they didn’t regret the trade. It reminds me of a line from King of the Hills’s Dale Gribble, trying to goad his friend Hank into mooning a hotel lobby from a glass elevator::
Noelvi Marte may end up being a star, but everyone in Seattle remembers Castillo’s 7.1 shutout innings in game one.
 
Shopping for discounts leads to getting players on the downside of their careers, players who are trouble in the clubhouse, or players with injury questions. With Josh Donaldson, the Twins got all three! It’s hard to establish an identity when your additions to the roster are hurt, playing badly but need to play based on what you gave up for them, and are getting in insular beefs with Gerrit Cole.
I’m sure the Twins do target players they want, but when they do, they either aren’t dreaming very big, or they aren’t giving big enough offers. Other teams may even use the Twins lack of free agent appeal against them in trade discussions, and ask more knowing that they represent the only way for the Twins to improve from outside their organization. The Correa pursuit showed both the Twins desperation, as 10/285M was an enormous offer for the team historically, and the issue I am referring to, that they couldn’t add that one extra year that may have added 25-30% to the odds of Correa being swayed to stay in Minnesota.
 
Of course, even with all the inaction, the front office has made some unexpected and creative trades, such as unloading Donaldson’s contract to free up money to target Trevor Story last year. Story didn’t want to play in Minnesota, or at least he didn’t for the offer they gave him, and the front office was fortunate that Scott Boras called with his Correa proposition. Being nimble is a nice benefit of the payroll flexibility the team enjoys, but it doesn’t move the needle of turning this team into a real contender.
 
Here’s how I would say the team has performed using the processes they were brought in to execute:
Not taking on long-term deals: A+
Finding scrap heap pitchers and unlocking their potential: D-
Develop position players into major league contributors: C
Develop home-grown pitching: D-
 
Here’s how they performed using other, successful, processes:
Overpaying for free agents to add talent without dipping into farm system: F
Extending emerging stars before they break out: D
Trading players with years of team control who are playing at a high level to replenish the farm system and/or augment the major league roster: C
 
This is why injuries can’t be blamed for the lack of recent success. There is a problem with the process. One, their pitching expertise has proven dubious. Two, their process model doesn’t include the boldness exhibited by teams they are trying to emulate. The scrap heap pitchers they are trying to unlock are waiver claims, not major league bounce back candidates. The pitchers they target in trades are of the scratch n’ dent variety, not sure things. Imagine if the team had struggled getting its high position player draft picks to the majors and there was no Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, or Buxton to even worry about projecting for the 2023 roster. That’s the only positive thing keeping this team from becoming Detroit or Kansas City.
 
My advice would be to get Chris Sale for a prospect and take on his entire salary, flip Sonny Gray and Max Kepler to San Diego, where they are short a starter and a corner outfielder and try to pry Ha-Seong Kim from them. But hey, that’s just my process.


 

There’s a great scene in the first season of Ted Lasso. Coach Lasso is sitting and mulling over end of season strategy with his assistant, Coach Beard. Lasso realizes that his approach with his players might not give the team the best shot at winning, but smiles and reassures Coach Beard that “winning ain’t how we measure success.”
Coach Beard turns red. He slams his fist on the table and hollers, “DAMN IT, IT IS!”
Winning matters. Which brings us, ironically enough, back to the Minnesota Twins. In the last 18 years of baseball, only two MLB teams have failed to win a postseason game. One of those teams, the Seattle Mariners, are a virtual lock to win a Wild Card spot. That may soon leave the Twins alone at the bottom of the postseason winning heap for this stretch. Last in success, out of all 30 major league teams.
“C’mon,” you’ll argue. “Stop blowing this out of proportion. Just look at those division pennants waving atop Target Field. One of them is even as recent as 2020. That’s success.” Sure, I know they’re there. I just can’t shake the feeling that they just don’t matter all that much. Sure, the Twins have had some success in a weak division - the children’s table of baseball - building up midseason leads and slipping ahead of marginal competition. But when the heat is on, when the top teams are in town, when the playoff bunting flies, the Twins aren’t much of a ballclub. They don’t win when it really counts, when it would generate excitement, when it would really bring the state together. They are a professional organization run and staffed by what seem to be genuinely decent and otherwise competent people. 
But they don’t win … and that matters.
In 1986, I fell head over heels for the Minnesota Twins. They were a bad ballclub, but I loved the game and I loved the team and I loved the Metrodome (yeah, I know). My dad took me to ten games or so that year, taking time from a very busy work schedule to indulge me. He even took me to Fan Appreciation Night, where Bert Blyleven apologized to the crowd for a disappointing season, adding that he saw the core of a talented club that could bring a World Series to Minnesota in 1987.
My father audibly groaned. “It’ll never happen,” he said. 
“What if it does,” I asked.
“Look, if the Twins go to the World Series next year, I’ll buy us both tickets. But it won’t happen, kid.”
You know the rest. Like magic, it did happen. And we were there. And my father, a serious man, hooted and cheered and waved like a kid. He loved the Twins more than I had realized, and he’d waited his life for this. When they won Game 7, he paraded me through the streets of Minneapolis on his shoulders. We hugged and high-fived strangers and police officers. We celebrated the success of our local team, a scrappy small market underdog. 
“Enjoy it” he told me. “Because it’ll never happen again.”
We did not buy tickets to the 1991 series. We watched all the drama from the comfort of home. But I grew up with an embarrassment of baseball riches. More than that, I have memories of my father - the stoic US Navy veteran and successful man of business - that are priceless. I got to see my father become a kid, just like me, bursting with joy over the game of baseball.
The years are wearing on him now, and it's hard to know how much time we have left together. We don’t talk Twins much anymore, my father and me. He never watches games and rarely reads the box scores. I tried to sit him down to watch the 2019 Twins take on the Marlins on TV. I hyped him up for the “Bomba Squad” and chose an opponent I was sure the Twins could beat. I wanted him back on the bandwagon with me. I thought a special season was coming together again.
Newly acquired Sam Dyson blew the lead. Buxton injured his shoulder. The Twins lost 5-4 in extras. But my dad didn’t see it end - he had gone to the garage to tinker with the lawn mower engine. Somehow, he knew that team wasn’t anything special. “Wake me up when they look like a winner again,” he told me.
So here we are, three years removed from the 2019 season which ended in another postseason whimper. The consolation at the time was that the Twins appeared on the cusp of a breakout - a potential string of AL Central dominance that might lead them deep into the playoffs. Instead, we’ve just witnessed an absolutely epic late-season collapse that will leave them in third place and likely below .500 for the second straight year. Worst to third in the AL Central, particularly after signing the #1 free agent in baseball in the offseason, hardly inspires much hope.
It’s not that these things don’t happen in baseball, or in all professional sports. It would be foolish to expect the Twins - a mid-market team - to win back-to-back championships every decade, or to be angered by occasional rough seasons or disappointing endings. It’s not so much that the Twins lose, but how they lose - and that they lose when it matters most and even when they seemingly have what they need to succeed - that is so hard to stomach. It’s a culture of losing that has essentially destroyed fan morale and widespread interest in the game here in Minnesota. 
Here’s what I’m trying to say: It’s not just that the Twins lose, it’s how losing no longer seems to be a problem for the organization. 
No one who represents the Twins really seems disappointed or upset by what's happened this season. There’s no visible sense of urgency or frustration. The club’s director of communication admonishes critics for any negativity and tells fans to “ride with us,” without acknowledging that the club’s trainwreck bullpen failures made getting back in the fandom car seem like a death wish. “We played our game, we played hard,” is Baldelli’s general mantra after bitter losses, as though professionals being paid hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars shouldn’t be expected to “play hard” as a basic condition of their employment. Instead of playoff wins, we’ve gotten endless strings of excuses: injuries, payroll limitations, called strikes that only seem to pinch our batters, and platitudes about being “almost there” and busy “reloading.”
What’s that old saying? Sound and fury, signifying nothing. Though scratch that - what I wouldn’t give for even a little well-placed fury from this club. They endlessly preach process, but seem to have no real interest in results.
Meanwhile, there is an entire generation of young people who have never once seen a Twins playoff victory. They’ve never seen their friends or family members turn giddy at the prospect of coming out on top, of beating the big boys of baseball in late autumn.They’ve never seen the way a playoff run can pull people together and shake up the routine of life. Winning inspires chatter and energy. It changes dull small talk about the weather into tales of late-inning heroics. The perfect throw to the plate to preserve a close lead. The seeing-eye single that brought in the tying run. The walk-off home run that electrifies a city.
Minnesota is a beautiful state. The Twin Cities represent two vibrant metropolitan centers within a short cross-river drive. Greater Minnesota features majestic beauty and kind-hearted communities. At times, we become two very different kinds of people living in the same state. We sometimes lose a common worldview and a common cause. On top of that, we’ve weathered a pandemic, civil unrest, extreme political division and economic instability. Any of the top professional teams in this state that actually commits to winning - and actually does win when it counts - will find that, beyond their own satisfaction, they’ve added a stitch or two to a sense of unity and pride in the state. 
Winning gives people relief and hope - even in small ways - and it gives them moments and stories with those they love. Yes, baseball is only a sport and maybe even a dying one, but winning is symbolic. Winning inspires.
I know I’m cranky. There will soon be any number of articles coming from people who are less cranky about how the Twins had some positive developments this year, and that the FO gave their trades and signings their best shot, and that some prospects took major steps forward, and that winning at the professional level isn’t the only thing that matters. I’m going to shake my head when I read those stories. I may even pound my fist on the table.
Because damn it, it is.
Winning is how you measure success in MLB. Winning is the only thing that matters at this level (and please don’t counter with “playing the game fairly is more important,” because that, too, is a basic professional expectation that should go without saying). And the Twins don’t win when it counts. And that matters. And anyone who does not make this the top priority for this team should no longer be involved with this organization. Find out why injuries keep derailing promising prospects. Find out why high-leverage situations at the plate and on the mound keep resulting in failure. Find out why the team looks like roadkill when the Yankees come to town. Find out why the team lacks fundamental skills on the bases and in the field. Focus less on mundane processes and more on getting situational results. Put the team through high-stress drills. Get the players ready for battle, rather than stocked with excuses when they fail.
Because Coach Beard is right. Winning matters. And it’s been far, far, far too long since the Twins have won anything when it counts.
 

Towards the end of last year, I decided to evaluate Falvey's draft record at the time. As I noted, it was a work in progress and there has been quite a bit of shifting around this year. I postulated this year would be a critical year for Falvey's future with the Twins as fans, and I'm sure owners, were waiting with bated breath for the pitchers of the future to arrive and the high round draft choices to prove their mettle, advance through the system, and prove the front office's methodology.
To paraphrase my previous blog:
Falvey has shown a tendency to draft one tool (power) position players in the high rounds and they weren't particularly successful. eg. Sabato, Wallner, Rooker and he's had very little success in early round pitchers developing and moving up through the system.

Methodology:
Link to previous blog:
 
So how have things graded out this year? There's definitely been a fair bit of movement and some of the players are no longer in the organization. Rooker was traded to San Diego as part of the Rogers deal and Petty was moved to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Landon Leach was released by Ft. Myers and signed by the Braves' organization.
 
2017 Player Grade MLB Draft # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perf. Promo Spd Projection 1st Royce Lewis B 5 1 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par High School 22 MLB A C B CBA Brent Rooker* D 50 35 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive College 27 AAA A F C 2nd Landon Leach* D 101 37 37-67 (Rnd2) Reach College 22 A- D F D 3rd Blayne Enlow D 29 76 76-105 (Rnd3) Steal High School 23 AA F D D 2018 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Trevor Larnach B 26 20 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par College 25 MLB B B B 2nd Ryan Jeffers C >200 59 44-78 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 24 MLB D A D 3rd Forfeit for Lynn 1yr N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2019 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Keoni Cavaco F 28 13 1-30 (Rnd1) Aggressive High School 21 A- C F F CBA Matt Wallner B 60 39 31-41 (CBA) Aggressive College 24 AA B C C 2nd Matt Canterino C 46 54 42-69 (Rnd2) On Par College 24 AA C C D CBB Forefeit (to trade Hughes) F       Total Failure N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Spencer Steer A >200 90 79-107 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 24 AAA A C B 2020 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Aaron Sabato D 41 27 1-29 (Rnd1) Reach College 23 A+ D D F 2nd Alerick Soularie D 105 59 38-60 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 22 A+ D C F CBB Forefit in Maeda Trade N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Forefit for Donaldson N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2021 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Chase Petty* A 27 26 1-29 (Rnd1) On Par High School 19 A- B A B CBA Noah Miller B 62 36 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive High School 19 A- B A C 2nd Steve Hajjar C 100 61 37-63 (Rnd2) Reach College 21 A- B C C 3rd Cade Povich A >250 98 72-101 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 22 A+ A A B Upward movers:
Royce Lewis - C to B. While Lewis' performance blew away all expectations and was well worthy of an A grade here, it feels like there's been confirmation he's the next Buxton in regard to injuries. Lewis' injury history is no longer something which can be attributed solely to luck and the expectations on how much value he can add to a team should be significantly tempered as a result.

Landon Leach - F to D. Atlanta's coaches have clearly done something here. Leach's K rate is about the same, but his walk rate has absolutely plummeted. Leach has turned in mostly solid starts this year for Atlanta's low A team with a couple clunkers disguising how effective Leach has actually been. This is a positive for Falvey's draft, but a potential big negative for the development team. Based on his age and experience in the MiLB system, Leach's results this year 4.04 ERA, 4.29 xFIP are hardly worth praise, but the absolutely massive leap forward is worth not completely writing him off. 

Trevor Larnach - C to B. Larnach's struggles to hit basically anything other than a 4-seam fastball resulted in his performance, and my expectations, dropping like a stone. This year, Larnach started off fairly hot again and his wRC+ of 114 is sustainable for a bat first corner outfielder now that he's picked up a little extra speed as well. I'm going to ignore his huge slump over the last month, and especially last couple of weeks and hope it's luck related rather than a repeat of last season.

Matt Wallner - D to B. Wallner didn't impress me last year. As a 23 year old college hitter in an A+ league with only a power tool offset by poor plate discipline, I wasn't confident in his ability to take his game up the ladder. Wallner performed well in the Arizona Fall League, but I give almost zero value to performances in the AFL so coming into this year, I didn't expect a change. That said, Wallner has raked in AA, and now we're getting somewhere. Now age 24 and the mulligan of 2020's lost season fading, Wallner has delivered at the plate and significantly improved his game as well. Wallner's walk rate has jumped from a weak 9.5% (for a high K rate power hitter) to an impressive 17.1%. That's night and day. That's projectable. His OBP has also skyrocketed 54pts to .404 in a much, much harder league this year. Want more good news? He's only gotten better as the season has marched on. Since May 1, Wallner's OPS has been 1.026. His BB rate has increased slightly to 17.5% and even better, his K rate has declined a bit to 31.6% over that span. While the BABIP might have a bit to do with his .304 average, his performance isn't all HRs. Wallner has more 2B's than HR's since the beginning of May as well. Consider me much more interested in this guy's future.

Spencer Steer - C to A. Scouting reports on Steer's defense were clear he wasn't going to be a shortstop and an unimpressive season at the plate in AA last year after raking in A+ ball led me to drop expectations. Steer's walk rate dropped by over 50% and his strikeout rate nearly doubled from A+ to AA while his OPS dropped from .911 to .774. OOffffda. Lots of players cannot make the transition from low minors to the high minors. A+ to AA is the biggest step in baseball competition level, in my opinion. Steer has reclaimed a bit of walk rate, dropped the strikeouts quite a bit and crushed the baseball, earning a promotion to AAA where he continues to rake. While his BB rate is too low for a power hitter (9%-ish), it does seem like "power hitter" is an apt term for Steer. It's possible Steer can make the transition to being a quality MLB player. As a 3rd rounder, that's an A.
Noah Miller - C to B. Miller's performance last year was fine. He didn't light the world on fire in rookie ball with little pop .238/.316/.369 wRC+ 85, but as an 18 year old high school draft pick, even holding his own against professional players half way through their season and playing for a couple weeks was good enough. Miller's scouting reports show tough to grade potential with mediocre athleticism for a middle infielder, but he's credited with a high baseball IQ and good instincts which would offset it. That may be best evidenced by Miller stealing 13/15 on the basepaths this year. Miller focused on building core strength this offseason, but no power improvements are to be seen yet. That said, Miller's plate discipline has taken a major step forward with his promotion to A- league ball and that's kept him performing at the plate despite being utterly pop-less this year. Miller's .239/.378/.325 is good for a wRC+ of 114 in the low offense league. This is Miller's first full season of professional baseball and his excellent fielding percentage of .988 at shortstop practically brings a tear to my eye after watching seemingly every Twins SS prospect for the past decade boot baseballs like like they were playing soccer out there... If Miller can develop a little more pop or pick that average up, we could have a legitimate shortstop in the making.

Cade Povich - D to A. Povich hadn't pitched at all last year at the time of my grading, and considering he was a college signing who I classified as a huge reach, I graded it harshly. Povich has acquitted Falvey's draft strategy greatly this year. With a 12.8 K/9 and an acceptable 3.2 BB/9, Povich has put up a 3.38 ERA in not Low-A, but High-A. Povich saw 2 innings in Rookie ball and then only 8 innings in Ft. Myers last year and the Twins started him off in Cedar Rapids this year. Povich's 3.28 xFIP looks good and seems reasonable based on the 1.13 WHIP. Povich hasn't shown a huge Achilles heel like a lot of pitchers who struggle with walks or give up a ton of hits. At age 22 in A+ ball, it's not like a 3.38 ERA screams "ace" pitcher, but given the experience level and promotion rate, it's a good sign of him being able to hold his own up the ladder and Povich was a 3rd rounder.

Now for the fallers:

Brent Rooker - C to D. Rooker was moved this offseason in the Rogers' trade and it's hard to give him a dropping grade considering he's OPS'ing .999 in AAA for San Diego, but... he's in AAA. As a 2017 first rounder, that's not acceptable. Rooker's strikeout rate clearly has the Padres looking at him as a AAAA talent or he'd have seen action by now. It's ironic, San Diego had a need for Rooker's services earlier this year... just as he was hurt. Rooker did get the callup on the 13th for a double-header game, but didn't play and was sent right back to AAA. The advanced metrics on Rooker last year painted him as unlucky and worth some time, but it seems neither the Padres or Twins' coaches have been impressed with what they saw in person.

Blayne Enlow - C to D. Enlow finally returned to pitching after losing the vast majority of 2020-2021 to the COVID shutdown and a UCL tear. The Twins decided to protect Enlow from the Rule 5 draft this year, but Enlow's demonstrated poor control with a 4.9 BB/9 rate and he's been very hittable with an 8.9 H/9. Poor control is typical for younger pitchers when returning from TJ, and to Enlow's credit, he has returned quickly. That said, nothing about Enlow's true performance in the minors up until now has warranted excitement and there's no part of his game which is truly impressive this year. Scouting reports are great, but performance has to be there and Enlow needs to start producing. It's actually pretty concerning that Enlow walked nobody in his first two starts... and 11 batters in his last 12.2 IP.

Ryan Jeffers - B to C. Jeffers got the thumbs up for a B-grade despite having a rough year at the plate last year. After all, he still had the potential to be a career starting catcher and that's very valuable. Jeffers struggles at the plate have continued this year and the SSS factor is quickly evaporating. Now, it's not like Jeffers has been John Ryan Murphy at the plate as Jeffers continues to hit well enough to justify being a backup catcher, but Jeffers' bat is decidedly below MLB average and his mediocre defense isn't going to offset his weak plate performance enough to be a starter. Projecting Jeffers as more than a career backup doesn't feel likely to me.

Matt Canterino - B to C. Canterino may have already pitched more innings in AA this year than he was able to pitch all last year in Low/High A, and Canterino may own a sparkly 1.83 ERA, but the performance is an illusion. With an ugly 5.77 BB/9, helpful .225 BABIP and an absurdly low 0.26 HR/9 thanks to the 2.6% HR/FB rate, the 4.78 xFIP tells a very different story. Beyond the expected performance, there's no way an uninjured pitcher with a 5+ BB/9 rate in the minors can be effective in MLB. Canterino is also closer to his 25th birthday than his 24th at this point. Still some time to turn it around, but this year has been deflating for fans. 

Aaron Sabato - C to D. The leash on Sabato's lack of performance has ended. After an uninspiring performance in Low A last year, Sabato was promoted to Cedar Rapids and he responded with a home run derby performance to put his stock back on track. Repeating A+ ball this year, Sabato has failed to repeat his home run fueled explosion last year. All that remains is the pedestrian 13.7% walk rate for a 23 year old college power hitter repeating a season in the low minors to go along with the 33% K rate. Sabato's power hasn't been on display this season, managing an ISO of just .174, and that won't get it done with a .214 batting average. Sabato still sports a wRC+ of 107 in the A+ league, but for poor defensive 1B/DH, who was drafted in the first round, that's not going to cut it. Sabato really doesn't look like he's MLB caliber.

All in all, Falvey's grade jumps from a 1.67 (C-) to a 2.00 solid C. There were enough upward movers to more than offset the scufflers. The 2021 draft class still looks like it may be Falvey's best with a lot of solid performers, but it's way too early to tell... also, we traded away the best of the prospects in that class with Chase Petty in the Reds' system now where he's pitching very well in Low-A.

According to Twitter user Tony Adams, Marwin Gonzalez may have cheated more than any other player in 2017. He watched every Astros game he could find video on, then compiled the number of times he heard the ol' garbage can bang per player.
 
Gonzalez heard the bang 147 times in 776 pitches (18.9%).
 
The data is here. What a massive undertaking by Adams.
 
http://signstealingscandal.com/

Tonight we received the news that Eric Thames had signed with the Washington Nationals for the VERY reasonable price of $4m. Thames put together a slash line of .247/346/.505 last season, as well as 1.9 fWAR. He was likely a secondary option for the Minnesota Twins this offseason, who in my opinion very much still in need of a corner infielder after seeing C.J. Cron sign with the Tigers for $6.1m. First base was always a position the Twins were likely to wait on filling, as there were plenty of options on the market. Thames could have admirably platooned with his .877 OPS against righties. As somebody who had already moved on from Donaldson, I wondered why the Twins would allow Thames to go for such a cheap price. Shortly thereafter, I got my answer.
 
According to Darren Wolfson, the Twins do not appear to be engaged in the corner infield market.
 

 
In my opinion, there are two reasons this may be the case.
 
The first is the most likely in my opinion. Josh Donaldson remains on the free agent market. It may be fair to say that the Washington Nationals are out of the bidding war after signing Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, and finally Eric Thames. The bigger issue however is the Atlanta Braves involvement. Donaldson has grown up in the area and has been up front about his desire to return in 2020. The last update on the situation had all teams offering 4 years for undisclosed amounts to lock Donaldson up. As we've seen this offseason however, the price may become a moot point to some extent. In fact, it has now been reported that Donaldson may not have any interest in signing with the Twins at all.
 

 
As I had worried throughout this entire saga, Donaldson may have just been using the Twins to bulk his offer up from the Braves. This report also explains that the Twins are exploring other options, which is perplexing given the above report from Wolfson. It appears the Twins aren't willing to let go of hope of signing Donaldson after making no progress on the "impact" talent acquisition mentioned at the start of the offseason.
 
The second scenario for the Twins passing over the corner infield free agent market is a more troubling one for me. There have been rumblings of the Twins using Marwin Gonzalez as a full time first baseman this winter, and they could be content with their internal options rather than spending in free agency. I had actually just written a blog on Marwin Gonzalez having a better year offensively in 2020 citing a full spring training and hopefully less injuries. I was not advocating however that he be given a full time role as a corner infielder. With league average wRC+ coming in at 100, Marwin was 7% worse in 2019 with 93. The bar to clear for "league average" on offense is higher for corner infield as a position that typically houses premier hitters. Even if Marwin rebounds to a bit above league average on offense in 2020, they will still likely have an offensively below average first baseman. On top of that, he would no longer be utilized so widely on the field, which has been his main source of value in his career. They will essentially be taking value away from the roster to fill a spot that they could have easily done more effectively in free agency.
 
Regardless of reason, the thoughts above remain true. If the Twins don't sign another corner infielder and get stuck with internal options for a premier position like 1B, this will be yet another failure this offseason. Unlike with Bumgarner and Wheeler, this will have been an avoidable one. The offense will no doubt regress to some extent. The rotation is already an injury away from being a mess again. Every roster spot that we put a bandaid on instead of seriously addressing is another opportunity for the teams in the AL Central. If the Donaldson decision is holding up other deals, it's time to come to a conclusion one way or another. If the Twins front office believes they have their man already for corner infield, I seriously doubt it, but we'll have to wait and see. One thing is for certain though. Sitting here in January coming off 101 wins with over $10m less in payroll and this roster is not what I had pictured in October.

So we whiffed in FA and now we have the feeling that we never really had a chance and no one wants to come here! Boo hoo! People say trade the prospects. Wait a minute - they have to come here. They have no choice. For six years they are ours. So lets play them. Cleveland where our FO was trained moved their prospects up to their team and have had a good winning record for a few years now.
 
Forget where they were in the minors - many teams are now running players out at a much younger age - see Acuna (22), Soto (19), Tatis 20, Jimenez (23), Lindor (22), Corey Seager (21), Corea (21), Gleyber Torres (22)... Forget the lets play keep them in the minors for years and push them forward. Noah Syndergaard is one of our targets and he is 26 and came in to the league at 22.
 
Many players have started young and succeeded:
Vada Pinson, RF: 19 years, 247 days in 1958 (Reds) ...
Sibby Sisti, 2B: 19 years, 265 days in 1940 (Bees) ...
Brooks Robinson, 3B: 19 years, 332 days in 1957 (Orioles) ...
Rogers Hornsby, SS: 19 years, 351 days in 1916 (Cardinals) ...
Adrian Beltre, 3B: 19 years, 363 days in 1999 (Dodgers)
 
Lewis is still our number one rated player - put him at 3B if you want to put Sano at 1B. If he is not ready put Kiriloff, Rooker, or Raley at 1B.
 
If Wade or Kiriloff is better than Cave then replace cave. Put Kiriloff or Larnach in LF since people complain about Eddie Rosario.
 
If Lewis is going to take Marwin's place give him time at all the positions.
 
Then package Gonzales, Rosario, and Cave and instead of trading prospects trade these players for Boyd or some other starter.
 
I want to see the team start to push the envelop and get away from scraping up the crumbs at the end of FA.
In other words, what is the plan?

It’s Christmas. Santa has already come down the chimney and dropped off presents. Wrapping paper that was once wrapped around a gift with precision lives either in the recycling bin or in shards on the floor. Tears, both of joy and of disappointment, have been shed. Meanwhile, the Twins fan waits patiently, periodically looking up the chimney to see if a gift is just stuck along the walls.
 
It’s something you get used to as a fan of a lower-to-mid-market team. You’re not the rich kid that gets a new car every other holiday season, but you’re also not the family that shops at the food shelf for Christmas Dinner. You’re in the middle, which can be the worst place of all.
 
Part of being a fan in the middle is talking about payroll, about business, about dollars. This has been a reality for me since LaVelle was writing his annual stories in the early 2000s about not being able to keep the resurgent Twins teams together. Instead of just being excited that a possible Josh Donaldson signing would improve our offense for the next four years, we have to consider how much of his potential $20MM+ salary in 2022 may hold us back from resigning some of our homegrown players.
 
A couple of years ago this attitude made me start counting down the days until Joe Mauer’s contract was going to be off the books. Would shedding $23MM from the expenses materially change anything in terms of wins and losses? Probably not, but that $23MM could have been better spent in 2018. I dislike having to think that way but it’s a necessity. Right now, the Minnesota Twins have at least $23MM to spend, and probably closer to $30-35MM. Essentially, they could add a Lexus to their fleet and not miss the money
 
.
However, the further away I get from midnight, the less sure I am that Santa Claus is going to come through. I tried to be good all year. I went to the Twins Winter Caravan, I wanted to go to Twinsfest (work duties got in the way), I bought my flex pack and renewed for 2020 even though the prices went up. I did everything a fan is supposed to do. And right now it feels like my financial dedication is being answered with silence. I feel like I’m closer to shopping for an off-brand Martin Perez at the food shelf than walking out my front door to a luxury automobile topped with an oversized red bow.
 
But I’m in the middle class. I’m resourceful enough to know I don’t need to live off handouts. I’m naïve enough to think I can reach the top of the mountain, if even for just one year. And I’m smart enough to know the intelligent allocation of dollars are the best path to get to the peak.
 
So that’s what I aim to do here on my blog. I want to explore the money game, the dollars behind the diamond. I want to figure out the best use of $100K, of $10MM. I plan to do some research, a lot of speculation and hopefully some education.
 
So sit back, enjoy the unseasonable warmth and gather around the fire. Because if the stove’s not hot, at least the fireplace is.

Hubert Humphrey coined the term "cold Omaha" when he said that the Twin Cities would be a Cold Omaha without professional sports. I believe the Blue Jays must have thought they did not want to be a Canadian Minnesota if they did not sign some players and make the club interesting.
 
Well the Twins are interesting and last year they were winning. Now we do not have Schoop and we hope (and I expect) that Arraez will not regress. We do not have CJ Cron and we hope we have someone to replace his bat and glove and we do not have Juan Castro so we write about how Avila is actually better than Castro (are we dreaming?).
 
Our pitching got us to the playoffs, but could not win a game in the playoffs. We did pull Berrios too soon, the bats did go quiet, and we had no one beyond Odorizzi to stop the bleeding except Mr Dobnak. So we have signed our top three pitchers (actually we have not given Berrios the extension he needs) and we let go the last two pitchers, but we have not signed anyone to take their place meaning that we expect our rookie/young guys to step in and fill the positions. Fine.
 
The Blue Jays had two down years and they told their fans that the are going to do something about that. So they signed Ryu - a pitcher we were told would not want to leave the warm west coast. Does he know that Toronto is south only if you live in Canada? (Disclaimer - I know they are south of Minneapolis - https://www.ctvnews.ca/sports/who-s-the-north-portland-minneapolis-teams-question-raptors-claim-1.2168407)
 
They also signed Travis Shaw (his name has appeared on some Twins posts too). They signed Tanner Roark, they traded for Chase Anderson (pitcher), they are taking a chance on Matt Shoemaker making a comeback and they signed Japanese pitcher Shun Namaguchi too. And they still have Ken Giles (forget about the Twins trade for him - it is not going to happen).
 
And by the way, they have that young nucleaus - Bichette, Gurerro, and Biggio too (and I do not mean their fathers). I believe we have also talked about our window being now because of our young nucleus.
 
What next? Oh, they are talking to the Red Sox about acquiring David Price who once pitched for the Jays.

Ken Rosenthal said on Twitter this morning (I can't figure out how to embed on here):
 
"Expectation within the industry is Ryu will exceed Bumgarner's $17m aav in deal of at least four years. Two industry people with knowledge of starting pitching market predict minimum 4 years/$80 million. Teams still in need of starter include Blue Jays, Angels, Twins."
 
Darren Wolfson via Twitter:
 
"Hear that the MNTwins aren't sure yet if 4-year offer makes sense. His injury history and age suggest it doesn't. But, realistically, the only chance you have to make him think about coming to Minnesota is to go there. Personally, I'd keep exploring the trade market."
 
Sigh.

Ken Rosenthal said on Twitter this morning (I can't figure out how to embed on here):
 
"Expectation within the industry is Ryu will exceed Bumgarner's $17m aav in deal of at least four years. Two industry people with knowledge of starting pitching market predict minimum 4 years/$80 million. Teams still in need of starter include Blue Jays, Angels, Twins."
 
Darren Wolfson via Twitter:
 
"Hear that the MNTwins aren't sure yet if 4-year offer makes sense. His injury history and age suggest it doesn't. But, realistically, the only chance you have to make him think about coming to Minnesota is to go there. Personally, I'd keep exploring the trade market."
 
Sigh.

Ken Rosenthal said on Twitter this morning (I can't figure out how to embed on here):
 
"Expectation within the industry is Ryu will exceed Bumgarner's $17m aav in deal of at least four years. Two industry people with knowledge of starting pitching market predict minimum 4 years/$80 million. Teams still in need of starter include Blue Jays, Angels, Twins."
 
Darren Wolfson via Twitter:
 
"Hear that the MNTwins aren't sure yet if 4-year offer makes sense. His injury history and age suggest it doesn't. But, realistically, the only chance you have to make him think about coming to Minnesota is to go there. Personally, I'd keep exploring the trade market."
 
Sigh.

Ken Rosenthal said on Twitter this morning (I can't figure out how to embed on here):
 
"Expectation within the industry is Ryu will exceed Bumgarner's $17m aav in deal of at least four years. Two industry people with knowledge of starting pitching market predict minimum 4 years/$80 million. Teams still in need of starter include Blue Jays, Angels, Twins."
 
Darren Wolfson via Twitter:
 
"Hear that the MNTwins aren't sure yet if 4-year offer makes sense. His injury history and age suggest it doesn't. But, realistically, the only chance you have to make him think about coming to Minnesota is to go there. Personally, I'd keep exploring the trade market."
 
Sigh.

Ken Rosenthal said on Twitter this morning (I can't figure out how to embed on here):
 
"Expectation within the industry is Ryu will exceed Bumgarner's $17m aav in deal of at least four years. Two industry people with knowledge of starting pitching market predict minimum 4 years/$80 million. Teams still in need of starter include Blue Jays, Angels, Twins."
 
Darren Wolfson via Twitter:
 
"Hear that the MNTwins aren't sure yet if 4-year offer makes sense. His injury history and age suggest it doesn't. But, realistically, the only chance you have to make him think about coming to Minnesota is to go there. Personally, I'd keep exploring the trade market."
 
Sigh.

Ken Rosenthal said on Twitter this morning (I can't figure out how to embed on here):
 
"Expectation within the industry is Ryu will exceed Bumgarner's $17m aav in deal of at least four years. Two industry people with knowledge of starting pitching market predict minimum 4 years/$80 million. Teams still in need of starter include Blue Jays, Angels, Twins."
 
Darren Wolfson via Twitter:
 
"Hear that the MNTwins aren't sure yet if 4-year offer makes sense. His injury history and age suggest it doesn't. But, realistically, the only chance you have to make him think about coming to Minnesota is to go there. Personally, I'd keep exploring the trade market."
 
Sigh.

Felix Hernandez RP 34 - Doesn't want to share crown with Aquatennial Queen of the Lakes
Josh Donaldson 3B 34 - Loons kinda freak him out
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 36 - No longer very good at baseball
Dallas Keuchel SP 32 - Concerned that North Stars fans still aren't over it
Edwin Encarnacion DH 37 - Weather too cold for imaginary parrot
Alex Gordon CF 36 - Retro baby blue uniforms clash just a little with all his Royal blue gear
Hyun-Jin Ryu SP 33 - Airport not close enough to the west coast
Ryan Zimmerman 1B - Feels like anyone who has been through Zimmerman, MN might not like him right off the bat
Russell Martin C 37 - Has heard a catcher is more likely to be concussed here
Wei-Yin Chen RP 35 - 6.59 ERA in 2019
Rich Hill SP 40 - He's 40
Ben Zobrist 2B 39 - He's 39
Martin Prado 3B 36 - Keeps alpacas in Texas
Mark Trumbo DH 34 - Isn't Nelson Cruz
Marcell Ozuna LF 29 - Sees how Rosario is treated
Nick Castellanos RF - Unbalanced schedule - doesn't want to have to go back to Detroit that much
Yasiel Puig RF 29 - Keeps fainting goats in 49 other states
Alex Wood SP 29 - Insufficient quantities of chiropractors
Trevor Cahill RP 32 - We've got a shot here
Brian Dozier 2B 33 - Never heard of him
Tommy Hunter RP 34 - Insists on being called Tommy, Lord of the North, and that just doesn't fly
Jason Kipnis 2B 33 - Doesn't like state fairs
Kole Calhoun RF 32 - Doesn't want to change his name to Kole Bde Maka Ska
Ivan Nova SP 33 - Longs to reunite with Pittsburgh
Starlin Castro 2B 30 - Likely to sign him and cash in when in gets to 2000 hits
Juan Nicasio RP 33 - Doesn't realize how many good restaurants we have
Todd Frazier 3B 34 - Would prefer not to be around so many lakes
Corey Dickerson LF 31 - Would prefer many more lakes
Jason Castro C 33 - Number of lakes is fine, but would like less fish
Pat Neshek RP 39 - Homecoming is possible
Andrew Cashner RP 33 - Friend of a friend has heard Minnesota "smells a little"
Jason Vargas SP 37 - Too many Jasons already here
C.C. Sabathia SP 39 - Too many C.C.s already here
Cesar Hernandez 2B 30 - Would never live up to Cesar Tovar's precedent
Jonathan Schoop 2B 28 - Never heard of him
Welington Castillo C 33 - Minnesotans would latch on to the "Beef" nickname too much
Dellin Betances RP 32 - Keeps ostriches in New York
Anthony Swarzak RP 34 - Homecoming is possible
Drew Smyly SP 31 - Look at all these free agents left
Derek Holland RP 33 - I honestly didn't think this bit would be this long
Mitch Moreland 1B 34 - Mitch Moreland? More like Mitch Lessland, huh?
Julio Teheran SP 29 - If he's not good enough for Atlanta
Fernando Rodney RP 43 - If he's still throwing, homecoming is possible
Jordy Mercer SS 33 - Is he related to Bobby Mercer?
Billy Hamilton CF 29 - Is he still fast?
Taijuan Walker SP 27 - Let's give it a try, Taijuan.
Sam Dyson RP 32 - I think this bit is over
Brandon Kintzler RP 35 - Yeah, it's over
C.J. Cron 1B 30 - Definitely over
Eric Thames RF 33 -
Steve Cishek RP 34 -
Steven Pearce 1B 37
Jedd Gyorko 3B 31
Pedro Strop RP 35
Kevin Pillar CF 31
Collin McHugh RP 33
Tyson Ross SP 33
Robinson Chirinos C 36
Arodys Vizcaino RP 29
Juan Lagares CF 31
Travis Shaw 3B 30
Yolmer Sanchez 3B 28
Danny Salazar SP 30
Justin Smoak 1B 33
Hector Rondon RP 32
Wilmer Flores 2B 28
Will Harris RP 35
Steven Souza RF 31
Jon Jay RF 35
Matt Adams 1B 31
Jarrod Dyson CF 35
Jimmy Nelson RP 31
Brock Holt 2B 32
Brian Duensing RP 37
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B 34
Addison Russell SS 26
Chad Bettis SP 31
Yoshihisa Hirano RP 36
Clay Buchholz SP 35
Wade LeBlanc RP 35
Lonnie Chisenhall RF 31
Shawn Kelley RP 36
Matt Duffy 3B 29
Nate Jones RP 34
Tony Cingrani RP 30
Hernan Perez 2B 29
David Phelps RP 33
Matt Albers RP 37
Justin Bour 1B 32
Matt Moore SP 31
Jose Iglesias SS 30
Martin Maldonado C 33
Jonny Venters RP 35
Craig Stammen RP 36
Jared Hughes RP 34
Edinson Volquez RP 36
Logan Forsythe 2B 33
Derek Dietrich 2B 30
Brian McCann C 36
Hunter Pence RF 37
Neil Walker 2B 34
Gio Gonzalez SP 34
Domingo Santana RF 27
Devon Travis 2B 29
J.C. Ramirez SP 31
Kazuhisa Makita RP
Francisco Liriano RP 36
Devin Mesoraco C 32
Tim Beckham 3B 30
Curtis Granderson LF 39
Kyle Barraclough RP 30
Chris Rusin RP 33
Luis Garcia RP 33
John Axford RP 37
Luis Avilan RP 30
Brandon Guyer LF 34
Ryan Tepera RP 32
Daniel Hudson RP 33
Matt Wieters C 34
Tyler Clippard RP 35
Brandon Maurer RP 29
Jerry Blevins RP 36
Robbie Erlin RP 29
Cory Gearrin RP 34
Ryan Buchter RP 33
Aaron Loup RP 32
Steven Wright RP 35
Jeremy Hellickson RP 33
Dominic Leone RP 28
Dan Otero RP 35
Bryan Hoay C 32
Cory Spangenberg 2B 29
Greg Bird 1B 27
Melky Cabrera LF 35
Kevin Plawecki C 29
Caleb Joseph C 34
Josh Phegley C 32
Nicholas Tropeano SP 29
Jose Lobaton C 35
Gorkys Hernandez LF 32
Adam Rosales 2B 37
Ervin Santana SP 37
Logan Morrison DH 32
Erasmo Ramirez SP 30
Matt Joyce LF 35
Adeiny Hechavarria SS 31
Josh Tomlin RP 35
Ryan Goins 2B 32
Jerad Eickhoff SP 29
Bryan Mitchell RP 29
John Ryan Murphy C 29
Xavier Cedeno RP 33
Tyler Saino SS 30
Cheslor Cuthbert 3B 27
Jesus Sucre C 32
Kelby Tomlinson 2B 30
Andres Blanco 3B 36
Tom Koehler RP 34
Josh Fields RP 34
Javy Guerra RP 34
Fernando Abad RP 34
Ronald Torreyes 2B 27
Guillermo Heredia CF 29
Tony Barnette RP 36
Gordon Beckham 2B 33
J.B. Shuck LF 33
Allen Webster SP 30
Michael Blazek RP 31
Cody Anderson SP 29
Josh Thole C 33
Pat Venditte RP 35
Ryon Healy 1B 28
Elias Diaz C 29
Matt Grace RP 31
Jose Pirela 2B 30
Dan Straily SP 31
Jesse Biddle RP 28
Edubray Ramos RP 27
Kevan Smith C 32
Trevor Hildenberger RP 29
Joey Rickard LF 29
Jacob Barnes RP 30
John Hicks C 30
Daniel Stumpf RP 29
Tyler Olson RP 30
J.T. Riddle SS 28
Aaron Brooks SP 30
D.J. Johnson RP 30
Jacob Nix SP 24
Ryan Burr RP 26
Rajai Davis CF 39
Carlos Gomez RF 34
Tyler Austin 1B 28 EDIT: I'm removing Tyler Austin from the list because dex8425 said he signed with a team in Japan, that it was a pretty good deal for Tyler Austin actually, and that dex8425 is taking any and all wagers that Tyler Austin will rake. Also, I read on mlbtraderumors or on a Doogie tweet that Tyler Austin's girlfriend preferred being near an airport in Japan, so we never had a shot anyway.
Kohl Stewart RP 25
Tim Peterson RP 29
Felipe Paulino SP 36
Hector Santiago RP 32
Eric Sogard 2B 34
Mike Morin RP 29
Homer Bailey SP 34
Blake Parker RP 35
Brian Schlitter RP 34
Brooks Pounders RP 29
Danny Hultzen RP 30
Caleb Frare RP 26
Thyago Vieira RP 27
Ryan Feierabend SP 34
Derek Law RP 29
Jim Adduci CF 35
Jason Adam RP 28
Rob Brantly C 30
Wilkin Castillo C 36
Rico Garcia P 26
Isaac Galloway RF 30
Humberto Arteaga SS 26
Oscar Hernandez C 26
Erick Mejia 2B 25
Deven Marrero SS 29
Ian Gibaut RP 26
Peter O'Brien RF 29
Jace Peterson 3B 30
Yadiel Rivera 2B 28
David Hale RP 32
Tom Milone SP 33
Josh Smith RP 32
Drew Gagnon RP 30
Fernando Salas RP 35
Joe Hudson C 29
Francisco Cervelli C 34
Austin Adams P 33
Joe Panik 2B 29
Ross Detwiler RP 34
Aaron Slegers SP 27
Zac Rosscup RP 32
Chris Owings 2B 28
Robby Scott RP 30
Juan Minaya RP 29
Brad Miller 2B 30
Charlie Tilson CF 27
Mike Gerber OF 27
Kris Negron RF 34
Edwin Jackson SP 36
Tyler Lyons RP 32
Buddy hers RP 32
Jonathan Lucroy C 34
Tim Federowicz C 33
Sean Gilmartin RP 30
Cameron Maybin RF 33
Rookie Davis SP 27
Donnie Hart RP 29
Sean Rodriguez 2B 35
Ricardo Pinto RP 26
Gabriel Ynoa SP 27
Yonder Alonso 1B 33
David Carpenter RP 34
Tayler Scott SP 28
Ryan Eades P 28
Matt Kemp LF 35
Pablo Sandoval 3B 33
Bobby Wilson C 37
Rene Rivera C 36
Nick Vincent RP 33
Juan Centeno C 30
Ryan LaMarre LF 31
Gregor Blanco RF 36
Chris Stewart C 38
Marcos Mateo RP 36
Erik Kratz C 40
Tim Collins RP 30
Jeff Bianchi 2B 33
Rubby De La Rosa SP 31
Josh Edgin RP 33
Jemile Weeks 2B 33
Travis Snider RF 32
Kila Ka'aihue 1B 36
Mike Zagurski RP 37
Shane Robinson CF 35
Cliff Pennington SS 36
Alex Wilson RP 33
Danny Espinosa SS 33
Ricky Nolasco SP 37
Logan Kensing RP 37
Dylan Axelrod RP 34
Johnny Giavotella 2B 32
Duane Below RP 34
J.C. can C 40
Chris Withrow RP 31
Nick Franklin LF 29
Rafael Lopez C 32
George Kontos RP 35
Seth Maness RP 31
Alcides Escobar SS 33
Grant Green LF 32
Neftali Feliz RP 32
J.J. Hoover RP 32
Wilin Rosario 1B 31
Chris Hatcher RP 35
Dan Runzler RP 35
Collin Balester RP 34
Brandon Beachy SP 33
Brandon Hicks 2B 34
Henderson Alvarez SP 30
Juan Jaime RP 32
Alex Torres RP 32
Robbie Ross RP 31
Drew Hutchison SP 29
Zach McAllister RP 32
Cole Gillespie LF 36
Stolmy Pimentel RP 30
Michael Martinez 2B 37
Dioner Navarro C 36
Logan Ondrusek RP 35
Stephen Pryor RP 30
Fernando Rodriguez RP 36
Ezequiel Carrera LF 33
Wilkin Ramirez LF 34
Emilio Bonifacio CF 35
Mark Rogers RP 34
B.J. Rosenberg RP 34
Justin Sellers SS 34
Moises Sierra RF 31
Scott Van Slyke LF 33
Josh Zeid RP 33
Zach Putnam RP 32
Shelby Miller SP 29
David Lough RF 34
Brad Boxberger RP 32
Hector Sanchez C 30

As I read our reactions to each missed free agent and the excitement of the winter meetings I have come to the conclusion that the FO really is concerned about readership and postings on TD. I mean we have had a "why we should sign him" article about every FA that has been signed so far. Just to be clear - not signed by us. We went from everyone with an arm that has not fallen off to all the hitters who can add to Bomba mania.
 
We debate, we anguish, and we hope. Well at least we read and post.
 
 
So imagine if we made the first big signing of the off season. Over - done, nothing to talk about. So we wait.
 
 
Then we get four articles about the winter meetings which actually turned into reports about other teams signings.
 
 
So we write about how Dobnak is better than we think (how do you know what we think?). Maybe the Twins would sign another level of pitcher - no. Maybe the next level. How perfect an opportunity for our favorite site. If the Twins had not passed on all the players we have heard from we would not be writing about all the FA that we have never heard of. They are FAs? Wow, who cares? Well we do.
 
 
Gleeman and the Geek get a chance to really dig deep into the pool of possible. We get to anguish and almost forgot we had 101 wins with this same group of players - sorry we did lose Cron, Perez, and Gibson. But now we can talk about the wisdom of Wisler and trading Eddie Rosario - the player we say was not as good as people think he is but we can trade him to the dumb teams who do not know he is as bad as TD writers think he is.
 
 
So thank you Mr Falvey and Mr Levine.