twins1095

He definitely is, but Duffey as your 4th bullpen guy versus Duffey as your 2nd bullpen guy is a very different thing. Same phenomena with May. He hasn’t figured it out in the same way Duffey has, but I think it’s a when thing for May rather than an if.

I don't feel comfortable about this game.

It's sustainable until it is not. If Adrianza's numbers start falling off, then it is time to tweak the lineup again. Marwin Gonzalez is not anywhere near a caliber of player that deserves automatic playing time. He doesn't hit for more power than Adrianza and Adrianza has better contact skills and gets on base more.

Arraez is a below average second-baseman defensively.

After the corners were getting called all day NOW they aren't.

94 with that much movement is naaasty.

I wonder if it's hard to see or just not called but technically this pitcher is balking with every pitch. You can't break your hands and bring them back together. Maybe I'm just salty because I had umps calling balks on me during little league for the same thing...

He's not an above average defensive shortstop and he has been extremely average as a hitter for the last 3 months including below average for the entire season as a right-handed hitter. Individual good plays or at bats do not change that fact. People do not hate Polanco. People like Polanco and think he's a really good player on a great contact and at an age where he should continue to improve. Pointing out facts does not make people Polanco haters.

Scary to see how much Yelich can do with a pitch at his feet.

Really like these Brewers announcers. They are really great and unbiased and continually breaking down what they see.

It's one at bat. The platoon talk was based on his last 400 ABs against lefties and just a statement of what those numbers were over 400 ABs. Now if his next 400 ABs are reflective of that AB then obviously the idea would go away.... Further that statement assumes that Adrianza or Arraez couldn't have also come up with a hit in that situation which is false. Big hit for Jorge though, I hope he continues to do so.

This is the kind of day that Polanco should be sitting in favor of Arraez or Adrianza. That being said Arraez and shine let's get that W!

Arraez and Shine! Time to get that W!

Is Astudillo healthy? Either way, Garver/Sano become the every day DH's until he returns.

I definitely agree that improvement should continue for Polanco with more opportunities. However, this season... in game 2 of the playoffs or in a final week series...facing a top-flight left-handed pitcher...do you trot Polanco out in the #2 hole and have confidence? Again the numbers this season and last season for that matter say he's arguably your worst hitter against LHPs. He's worse than Adrianza in terms of OPS cumulatively against LHPs and that includes a season in which Adrianza could only bat from the left-side (if I recall correctly) due to injuries and issues switch hitting. Do you have confidence that you are optimizing your lineup this season in that situation if Polanco is in the #2 hole against an elite left-hander? I say that based on the numbers I do not have a ton of confidence that Polanco is your best option in that spot. From there, there's a conversation to be had...what is your best option? Is the best option to move Polanco down in the order? Platoon? I would 100% advocate for bringing Polanco in as soon as you get to the bullpen or against a righty in the pen in any situation where he sits. I also really want Polanco to be better than he has been against righties. He has not been good thus far.

For some context and maybe to prove I am not someone looking to smear Polanco. Here is a Jorge Polanco appreciation post I made earlier this year: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/33019-jorge-polanco-appreciation-thread/ Further, here is another post I made in May of 2018 in the 9th reply on a response on this thread: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/29809-lets-talk-max-kepler-eddie-rosario-and-what-their-emergence-means-for-the-ceiling-of-the-twins-offensive-lineup/( don't read the whole thing) ___________________________________________________________________________________ 2] I am a big fan and believer in Polanco, whether he sticks at SS or moves to 2B. I am NOT in Gordon, who I believe will be a fine player, but he is not yet a proven player and may need this year, and maybe part of 2019 before making his mark. ________________________________________________________________________________ Prelude ________________________________________________________________________________ I too am a big believer in Jorge Polanco, more so before the suspension for the positive PED test.However, I generally believe that in recent years we've seen inconclusive evidence that a player's success before getting caught for PEDs can't be repeated to at least some extent upon returning. Guys like Ryan Braun and Melky Cabrera have been able to relatively closely match their numbers post-ban with only marginal degrees of drop-off.I believe that the edge players get from PEDs is in their ability to remain healthier, recover faster from nagging injuries, and stay fresher over the course of a long season.It's probably also true that PEDs are a shortcut to gaining muscle mass--but I think it's just that, a shortcut. Most importantly, I don't think PEDs have much, if any correlation, to the most important skill in baseball...that is...the ability to square up and hit a baseball.Polanco is an extremely talented hitter with a very strong pedigree and track record of production offensively.The guy has great hands, hand-eye, and good bat-speed and is just simply a natural hitter--or at least that's been his strength coming up through the minors and when he's on in the majors. I would be a lot more worried about a positive test if Polanco was a pure power guy such as a Logan Morrison or Miguel Sano...I think a power hitter that relies on that skill largely to differentiate themselves as a hitter faces a ton more questions than a guy who's a smaller-in-stature-line drive/gap/pull it to the corner HR guy like Polanco.In my mind, the positive PED test raises questions about his ultimate future power potential in terms of HRs, not his ability to be an above average MLB hitter. Polanco hit 10 HRs, 15 2Bs, and 2 3Bs in 63 second half games last season for per 162 game paces of 39 2Bs, 26 HRs, and 5 3Bs.The positive PED test puts into question whether he continues to show the surprising mid-to-high 20 HR power he did in last year's second half...instead of the mid-to-high teens HR guy he was thought of prior to last season's power explosion. 2 seasons ago, in 53 second half games, Polanco hit 12 doubles, 4 3Bs, and 3 HRs for 162 game paces of 37 doubles, 12 3Bs, 10 HRs.I think it's much more likely his per game production is something more similar to this kind of line-drive/gaps/XBH power than the over-the-fence/HR power he showed last season--especially after the positive PED test. So while the positive PED test muddies the waters to some extent about Polanco's production upon his return and his ultimate ceiling--especially power-wise, I don't think it bars Polanco from the Twins future plans should he prove to have the work ethic to get himself into shape and stay off the PEDs in the future. ________________________________________________________________________________ Prior to Polanco's suspension this offseason, I wrote an analysis that's partially my own, but als gathering some analysis written by fangraphs writer Brandon Warne and others regarding Polanco's potential and their excitement for the young player.I'm going to copy and paste that reddit post following this: ________________________________________________________________________________ I'm a huge Polanco believer. He advanced through the minors so quickly with a lot of success, it's not surprising he's been a little inconsistent at the major league level. The dude is just a downright solid hitter. I'm a big analytics junkie especially in baseball--so I'm a big Fangraphs guy. Fangraphs is absolutely massive on Polanco. _________________________________________________________________________________ Here's there projections for this year: _________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco won't wow you with any individual attributes, but instead of flash, he's just downright solid. His season numbers in 2017 aren't terribly impressive -- .256/.313/.410 -- but he ended the year blazing hot after an early-season stretch where he faltered badly at the plate, and perhaps not inconsequentially, lost his grandfather. When Polanco woke up on Aug. 1, his season line was .213/.265/.305; from that point on – 55 games – he hit a blistering .316/.377/.553 with 10 homers, 15 doubles and seven steals. Those are 162-game paces of 30 homers, 45 doubles and 21 steals! He won't post a .900-plus OPS, but this is a guy you should be targeting after the studs at shortstop. Polanco had a horrible start to last season, but he also was horribly unlucky. Even after his crazy stretch in August/September, his BABIP was only .278. This is from a guy who's BABIP in the minors was in the .310-.330 range consistently. Polanco has a great command of the strike-zone and an elite ability to make solid contact and drive balls. It's not a surprise he's such an XBH machine. _________________________________________________________________________________ Fangraph's writers across the board love Polanco and his contact skills, here's another article written about Polanco in early January: https://www.fangraph...-watch-in-2018/ _________________________________________________________________________________ Here's another writers Polanco analysis: _________________________________________________________________________________ In his pre-season player profile last year I wrote the following of Polanco: Polanco doesn’t have a lot of power, but he actually led all MLB shortstops in line drive percentage (30%), and already shows he can pull the ball effectively (41%), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see just enough pop in 2017 to make Polanco a cheap middle infield source of slightly above average power/speed (think 20 HR+SB). The switch-hitting Polanco made good on that analysis, combining for 26 HR + SB and a .253/.313/.410 line in 133 games. What I didn’t expect was that he’d accomplish almost all of it in just half a season, hitting 10 of his 13 home runs in August/September and swiping 7 bases in that timeframe in six less games. Polanco’s effort to change his approach clearly paid off, (.293/.359/.511), and he’s young enough (just 24) that it’s not unreasonable to expect many of those gains to stick around for 2018. Polanco finished the 2017 season with career marks in contact rate (86.5%), swinging strike rate (5.8%), and hard hit rate (27.7%). I’m excited to see what might be next for this MIN post-hype prospect. _________________________________________________________________________________ Here's one last article from November that has the punchline I'm getting to in it... Article: https://www.fangraph...ospects-part-1/ _________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco Player Analysis #3 _________________________________________________________________________________ I remember reading and hearing about Polanco on Twins prospect lists for several years, but then once he came up to the majors… nothing! I’m not talking about 2014-15 when his two sips of coffee combined for 20 PA, but even in 2016 when he played 69 (nice!) games there wasn’t any real chatter surrounding him. Then this past season he slogged through 78 games with a .570 OPS before rallying to the finish line with a fantastic .931 OPS in 55 games including 10 HR and 7 SB. Only then did he get a little buzz, but even that was muted by fellow second tier prospect Eddie Rosario (.889 2H OPS). Perhaps Polanco could be on something of a Jose Ramirez track. It’s not a perfect comparison as I think Polanco trades some of the contact and speed of Ramirez for more ready-made power, but both are switch-hitting power/speed middle infielders who were up at 20 years old logging MLB time. Again, Polanco tallied just 20 total PA in 2014-15 while Ramirez had 280 through his age-21 season, but Polanco turned around his struggles quicker than Ramirez had through age-22 (78 wRC+ in 625 PA) so he may not need as many reps to make the leap. The beauty with Polanco is that his first half overshadows his final two months on the bottom line so there won’t be a ton of attention on him come draft day. Scoop him up on the cheap! The writer loosely compares Polanco to Jose Ramirez and while Polanco likely isn't quite that good...he's still really good. _________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco's 2017/18 162 Game Pace/Production Per Game Stats _________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco's stats last year on 162 game pace were roughly(with slight embellishment): .260/.315/.410/.725 with 75 runs - 36 2B - 4 3B - 16 HR - 90 RBI - 16 SB and a .280 BABIP that suggests even more positive regression in that line. Like the articles have pointed out, Polanco has reached the majors at the age of 20 and while he hasn't quite consistently established himself...players like Polanco who rise that quickly and face development levels way past their age-group can get slightly soured by groups of fans who don't understand that most of Polanco's peers were still in the low-minors. Polanco shouldn't be penalized for that. His career 162 game average isn't bad either and are just under: .270/.325/.420/.765 with 70 runs - 35 2B - 5 3B - 15 HR - 80 RBI - 15 SB Projections have him pretty close to that line(162 game pace): .275/.330/.425/.755 with 83 runs - 35 2B - 5 3B - 17 HR - 83 RBI - 17 SB _________________________________________________________________________________ I think that's roughly a pretty fair over under for Polanco, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Polanco take an Eddie Rosario type jump and approach .290 or even higher with 40+ combined 2B/3B's and approaching 20 HRs. His run and rbi totals will depend on his lineup spot. Regardless, if Polanco can put up numbers somewhere between those two lines...holy moly should Twins fans have a lot to be excited about. I really think he can. His hitting skills, ability to make hard contact, and ability to command the strike zone are all legit. I'd be really disappointed if Polanco can't establish himself this season. Defensively, I think Polanco's best position long-term is probably 2B. But I was pleasantly surprised with his ability at SS last season and while he'll likely never be a guy with a glove that is a real plus his ability to not be a huge minus defensively and play both MI spots will allow his bat to play. Guys, Polanco is ONLY 24. _________________________________________________________________________________ Who knows if Polanco will reach his potential, but I really think he's he's got a make-up that suggests he could be a good one. The biggest concern for me is the lower exit velocity, that stat seems to contradict a lot of the other metrics in his profile. Some of that could be because he's not a big guy or a huge power guy in terms of mammoth home runs. I'm not sure...we'll see. I'm optimistic. Having his kind of bat at 2B/SS could be a huge luxury. _________________________________________________________________________________ Post Analysis Post Thoughts __________________________________________________________________________________ Some of this will be reiterating what was written in those paragraphs, but Polanco's great really good hit tools.He's got a really good approach at the plate, a great command for the strike zone, and elite elite ability to make contact.His 86.5% contact rate and 5.8% meaning that he's got absolutely elite bat control and almost never misses, especially on balls inside the zone.His 8ish% walk rate puts him very solidly above average, he's no Rosario and this rate shows that he can both make contact as well as get on base at an above average level.Further, his 14.3% strikeout rate was near Mauer-esque in terms of limiting strikeouts. Many guys who make a lot of contact do so while protecting the plate and making weak/singles type of contact.Polanco mashes the ball and led all MLB shortstops in line drive% with 30%.Basically, Polanco is a switch-hitting extra base machine that makes a ton of really solid contact driving the ball in gaps all over the field.He's tries to yank and pull balls over the fence at times if he gets one in his wheelhouse, but generally spreads the ball really well to all fields. It remains to be seen how he can perform after returning from the suspension, but Polanco is just 24 and the same age as Buxton and has had 2 stints of extremely successful seasons at the MLB level at age 22 and 23 after reaching the majors for the first time at just 20 years old. I was most excited for Polanco this offseason and I really hope he can regain form.

It is okay to say no! The post was meant to lead into a discussion of if Polanco should still be hitting 2nd in the lineup and if he could potentially be a better player by sticking on the left handed side of the plate. I do kind of regret the title and the way I phrased it. That was not the best way to get to the productive meat of the conversation. I believe there is a good one to be had. We talk about Sano tweaking his swing or Kepler needing to get better against lefties (pre-2018), why not open up the same conversation for Polanco?

I mean it's well within a small sample size (250-300 ABs) worth of statistical noise of no improvement. The TEAM doing well against LHPs including games THE TEAM plays against NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS or NON-ACE CALIBER PITCHERS =/= how well the TEAM could perform IN THE PLAYOFFS. Even in the regular season, playing against lots of bad teams and pitchers mixed in that sample you are talking about, just because the team is and has played well doesn't mean that they wouldn't play better if you better optimized the lineups. I think this is an EXTREMELY important conversation as games and individual at bats start to matter more and more. This hasn't been an issue during the bulk of the regular season especially as the Twins were winning games and building a huge cushion. This is an EXTREMELY important and hard conversation to have as we enter this stretch run and a potential playoff run. The fact of the matter is, the Twins lineup is not optimized against LHPs and a player they are currently relying on in the middle of the order is one of their weakest hitters. The current position in the lineup for Polanco exacerbates this issue as much as possible. There are a number of things you could do to shield and limit the impact of this weakness. Baldelli has shown the willingness to do it with other hitters. There is no argument against the fact that THIS YEAR during THIS STRETCH RUN and during THIS PLAYOFF RUN. Polanco will negatively IMPACT the TEAM's ceiling against LHP's at the top of the order. The TEAM may or may not be able to carry that weight. There are a number of good arguments in this thread against my own, this argument that you've been pushing is not one of those.

His numbers were even worse last season as a right handed batter. I do believe that Polanco can get better as a hitter, but when we're talking about a potential stretch run where every single game and AB matters more and more a in the playoffs when those ABs become even more magnified... I think optimizing your lineup is definitely worth a conversation. Currently, your worst hitter in your projected lineup against right handed hitters is your #2 hitter. There are a number of ways where you could really improve probable outcomes in key moments and in a key position in your lineup. It could be the difference between a win and a loss in some games during this stretch run and eventual playoffs.

Actually it really depends on the rest of the skillset. Guys with Ben Revere profiles who hit .300 with a sub-.330 OBP and almost no power are not productive hitters. The average matters much less than the OBP (which correlates highly with average) and enough power to make that skillset play. I do think Arraez has the rest of the skillset, but let's be careful here. .260 with a .350 OBP >>> .300 with .330 OBP and then the XBH ability does matter from there as well. If a player has little power they are inherently a complementary player--which is fine, but important to understand.

The question is purposefully proactive, but Polanco is hurting the team as a right-handed hitter. The question was meant to get into a conversation about ways for Polanco to make a better and more complete impact.

Just less of a margin of error to succeed. You need to be able to generate A LOT of contact AND also draw a lot of walks to be a viable everyday player. Arraez has done that thus far with a pretty big BB% and a .350 average. We'll see what happens when he regresses a little bit. What is he like as a .290-.310 hitter? I think .300-.360+ is good enough for him to play a good amount but that is a high bar.

I agree the title was ultimately a little bit provocative. I think there are other viable options that are not as drastic and should be looked at such as moving him down in the order. I also think that it's possible that Polanco should just work on his left handed swing and focus on learning to pick up the ball better as a left handed hitter. The thing that worries me most is the lack of power shown over his career from the right handed side. I think that really limits his upside as a hitter compared to the left side. I think he's got more upside as a hitter and there's a higher likelihood of improvement with Polanco learning how to pick up pitches from lefties and swing at the good ones he gets with an already good swing than retool his right handed swing to be more of a threat. Again, it's not that he's striking out as a righty more often it's just that he struggles to make good or hard contact. Polanco already likely needs to work on better pitch recognition as a righty along with his swing. As a full-time lefty he just has to do one. Further, the burden of proof for his lefty swing versus lefties is only better than his mid-600 OPS as a right-handed hitter. I believe that he can do better than that swinging from the other side.

1) Tons of good teams these days platoon players and play more players more often at more positions than ever before to rest players and get the best match-ups. 2) Polanco is not a plus defender. Throughout his career he's been a minus defender who has improved to somewhere close to average this season. He is in the lineup because of his bat at a position where normally teams don't get much offense. If he isn't providing that offense, he's not carrying the team and providing positive value with his glove. 3) His numbers against LHP are pretty bad. He's the worst regular in the Twins lineup when the Twins face lefties. He'd be the 3 worst SS by OPS to play every day when he hits as a right handed batter. 4) That is a team-wide argument and not an argument of whether the Twins would be better or worse if Polanco is in the lineup or not in the lineup. Polanco hits at the top of the Twins order against LHP's and is the Twins worst hitter against LHP's. This is a huge hole in the lineup and will become an even bigger problem when the Twins face better pitching in the playoffs and/or in late game situations when teams can easily plug in a reliever to get Polanco out or essentially neutralize him as a threat of any magnitude. You said it. Adrianza is better defensively and as you suggested better on offense against LHPs. Playing against LHP's (not as many) is not playing everyday. Going forward, the Twins should also take this into account when thinking about if they should trade players like Arraez and Gordon and their middle infield rotation. Polanco's contact and on base skills comparatively go way down against LHP's. His walk rate is below average and his power, evidenced by his slugging percentage, is Nick Punto like. Contact skills are more than strikeout rate. Polanco may be able to make weak contact, but that's about it. League average OPS, SLG%, and OBP% are .758, .435, .323 this season. He's a below average hitter. At best, Baldelli should slide Polanco down to the bottom of the order like he does for other players like Kepler (who came into this season with platoon type splits against lefties and righties).

Also there's the whole thing with pitchers about the clock that quickly ticks down in terms of maintaining velocity and/or avoiding arm injuries and staying healthy. Only so many bullets in the chamber. I think with pitchers it's important to be more aggressive than less, especially if you can bring them up for the last month as a reliever...sheltering them a little bit...getting them good exposure in a way that can potentially help the team. It's actually smart baseball and it's been done by many good and successful playoff teams.