twins1095

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/29814-let’s-talk-mitch-garver/ I wrote a post/article breaking down Garver the other day as well--I'm also interested in him and think there's a little bit there...although there's also some work needed. Mods feel free to merge either way or merge my thread into here. I'm all about generating discussion and don't care how that happens.

Really like Wade...big fan of guys with his kind of approach and command of an at bat. Those kind of guys usually outperform whatever their "tools" are. He's gonna get on base a lot, not chase and get himself out, and generally swing at pitches and be in counts that put him in favorable positions. If he's got anything more in his bat than Grossman and can field his position even at an average level there's a solid amount of value to that player. With Kepler, Buxton, Rosario I'm not sure exactly where he fits in the lineup, but he's a guy I wouldn't be surprised to see carve out a better than expected career. 4th outfielder floor.

I guess I should clarify that when I speak about numbers it's generally on a per game basis, as in a per 162 game pace. Mauer only had one season over 40, but that's because he was a catcher playing only 130-140 games. The same with Garver, I doubt he ever puts up a volume 50 XBH season, but I think he can put up a 50 xbh season per 162 games. I just think it helps to know the kind of production that a guy puts up on a per game basis. For example, the NBA lists guys as 20 point, 10 rebound per game guys even if they play 50 games in a season...the MLB does volume stats...there is value to both but classifying a guy as as a 20 HR guy because he plays 120 games or what not is misleading in my opinion because you still get more production from that position in the final 40 games and it's a good indicator of the kind of impact they make when they do play.

Question -- Romero struggled with his command a little last night. Also one difference I noticed was that he was throwing a breaking ball that had a downward movement a lot more...was that his change-up or was his slider not moving east-west as much as it was in previous starts? He seemed to mostly use his fastball and something slower than that that moved mostly north and south... Anyone have any further thoughts on this?

This is fair. I was trying to post a ceiling type stat line. In regards to other posters who said Joe Mauer only reached that stat line once...etc. 1) It’s a much different game and HR and XBH records have been set and surpassed year after year for the last few years. 20 HRs is nowhere near what it used to be. Different time, different era, different points of emphasis. A lot of players in the modern era have tinkered there swings and approaches to loft balls and hit HRs and extra base hits. It’s how Logan Morrison went from being a Joe Mauer lite to a 40 HR guy. If you normalized by era it would be a different story. Second, why are you using 20 HRs as a bench mark for Joe Mauer...Joe Mauer is a contact/line drive/obp/doubles hitter not a home run hitter. Of course he hasn’t hit 20 HRs except that single year. Mauer has 6 seasons with a .320 plus average including .347 and .365 seasons. And has hit 40-50 doubles multiple times. Putting Garver’s ceiling at 30 2B - 20 HR and something like .250/.330/.780 is not putting Garver even close to the same universe as Mauer’s peak.

Thanks for the reply, I’ll check it out. I guess I should say that I probably was using the 3 true outcome definition to describe a couple of different things which is my fault. Traditionally, 3 true outcomes is a guy not putting the ball in play which maybe is the wrong way to describe Garver. He didn’t strike out quite as much as I thought he did in the minors. I sort of meant it, wrongly, as Garver seems to profile as the type of player that’s gonna have a 10-12 BB% - 25ish + K% and a pretty solid number of extra base hits as I was describing. I don’t see Garver as a super high average guy. I was describing the high BB, high K, high power, low average type of profile that 3 true outcome players also have, but i was using it wrongly without thinking.

Walk rates usually translate relatively smoothly and we’ve seen him do it for a stretch before. We’ve seen the natural easy power a little bit this year. Seemingly, with some more comfortability he’ll be able to square balls up more consistently. I imagine it’s hard balancing and focusing on catching duties and handling that aspect of things too, more comfortability commanding MLB pitchers at this level could also help his hitting a little bit. We’ll see he’s got an interesting skill set for sure.

Garver’s minor league track record suggests an interesting .OBP/Power profile from the catcher position. He’s old for someone just breaking into the majors (27), but he got a relatively late start and catchers can take more time. The sample size is still limited and Garver hasn’t done it consistently at the MLB level, but he’s flashed the power a little during the beginning of this season and also the BB rate during his first stint. As a hitter, it seems like if he can settle into the 10-12 BB% he showed during his minor league track record and/or push towards the 11.5 BB% he put up during his first 50 PA’s in the majors and approach the 30 2B - 20 HR power potential his track record suggests he could reach...Garver could be an interesting player. The biggest question surrounding Garver will be his ability to make enough contact, and further enough hard contact to make his power play at the major league level. Cutting down his K% from the 28-30% he’s been at over his first 100 PA’s to something resembling the 20-24% he posted routinely during his minor league career would go a long way to accomplishing this. Regardless, it seems that Garver will likely never be a high average guy and will strike out a lot. Basically, it seems likely that Garver profiles towards something of a 3 true outcome player. I personally don’t mind the strikeouts or the 3 true outcome style as long as he walks enough to get on base at something resembling an 11 BB% and is able to make enough contact to let his power play. There are slight distinctions in the value’s of a BB and a 1B as well as a K versus an out in play, however I’d argue there are positive and negative components to both and the value’s between the metrics are pretty close in the grand scheme of things. This if a guy profiles as a high OBP/high XBH guy to me it suggests a lot of run production both in a player’s ability to drive in runs as well as score runs. I do awknowledge that taking a step back from a purely numbers/data driven viewpoint, from a viewing perspective less balls in play (as comes with the 3 true outcomes) for many is a much more boring style of game. I think Garver profiles as a guy who could be a .350+obp% - 25-30 2B - 20-25 HR type profile. I’m not sure Garver will ever hit in a spot in the order that leads to eye-popping levels of Runs or RBIs, but from an offensive standpoint that would put Garver in pretty good company at the C position. Just watching Garver’s swing i’m intrigued by his ability to generate a ton of power with a swing as short, quick, and compact as his swing is. His first major league HR really jumped out at me because of how deep it was and how much it popped off his bat despite a swing that shouldn’t have seemingly generated that kind of power. I don’t feel qualified to speak as much about Garver defensively. I know at earlier levels in his minor league career there were some questions about his defense (I think he switched to the position extremely late), but by the time he reached AAA a lot of reports rated him as surprisingly solid if not good at the position. I haven’t watched his play at the MLB level with a really critical eye yet, but it feels like Garver has been solid thus far. I’ve been relatively impressed with his arm, but my feel watching what I’ve watched is that there is some inconsistency in terms of being able to block and smother balls in the dirt and to me it seems that the Twins have been struggling to get pitches on the edge of the strike zone (on the blacks) called for strikes at times suggesting that potentially Garner could become more consistent and skilled at framing pitches. I also can’t speak to his ability to call an effective game, manage pitchers, and make them better. However it seems that he profiles as solid defensively at worst and flashes some ability to be something close to above average if not even a good defensive catcher. Fangraphs has him as a +0.9 Def War player in a relatively small sample size suggesting that he’s performing pretty well. Further, I like Garver’s versatility in his ability to play 1B and the corner OF spots. In an ideal world I think Garver is paired with a true elite defensive catcher and his bat plays well enough to get him ABs at 1B, DH, etc to keep his bat in the lineup. What do you guys think of Garver? Bullish, Boarish, or meh? He’s far from a sure thing, but the skill set as a hitter, especially as somewhat of a power hitter, that he profiles at the C position would give the Twins really good run production value from the C position in a way that a lot of teams can’t generate. I might be getting a little bit ahead of myself as this is a lot of projection, but I’m encouraged by streaks of both skillsets Garver has displayed for stretches of time and think that once he becomes adjusted to MLB pitches the whole package will start to show more consistently. Push back on me.

I think I'd rather go in-house with options like Ryan Lemarre, Zach Granite, and Lamonte Wade in that spot than trade assets or go after a guy like McCutchen. Wade's profile and his ability to take quality ABs, draw walks, and get on base would be intriguing and pretty much exactly what you would hope for from your 4th OF if they have to step in for a stint. Wade's got a similar level of command at the plate to Robbie Grossman...except he strikes out even less, walks even more, has a better hit tool, and can play the OF pretty decently. 146 AA games: 89 runs, 22 2Bs, 4 3Bs, 11 HRs, 79 RBIs, 13 SB, 92 BB's to just 81 K's .295/.395/.415/.810 slash. In my mind that's as good of a fit as they come.

It is a little disappointing. Speed and value created by speed running the bases covers a lot more than just SB numbers. If Gordon consistently uses his speed to create value on the base paths by taking as many extra bases as possible and is efficient with his movements in terms of doing things like going from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, scoring from 1st on extra base hits, taking extra bases on deep fly balls, etc. that creates a ton of positive value too. Gordon has better raw speed than Dozier, but to me, especially early Dozier was a great poster boy for this. He's never really stolen more than 20 bases, but he was one of the most efficient baserunners and created positive baserunning value near the league leaders because of his ability to take really efficient lines and awareness/baseball IQ to continually take extra bases and make the most of every time he was on base. Aside from batting leadoff, this skillset is a big reason why Dozier has been able to score as many runs as he has. If Gordon can steal 20 bases and create positive base-running value by continually making high IQ plays when on base and being really aggressive at taking extra bases consistently whenever an opportunity....I'd be pretty happy with that. I'm not saying what I want to say as concisely as I want to, but I hope you get the gist of what I'm trying to say. I can't speak to whether Gordin has this type of feel for running the bases, but that skillset and speed playing in that manner is more important to me than 20 SBs or 30 SBs.

I think you can acknowledge weak strike zones and the frustration that might cause and in the last 3 or 4 starts I've tuned in there's been a lot of interesting strike zones, while also acknowledging how Berrios has to learn to overcome that and change to those zones, not unravel, etc. 5-10 pitches a game that go one way or another can be 3, 4, 5 extra base-runners or extra outs which can be a multiple run difference. Now this is a little bit extreme, but completely denying this from being true is denying a reality. However, this factor goes both ways and is something that all teams and pitchers deal with...but it undeniably can affect a game and it can affect a game in a big way. Berrios struggles with command at times--yes this is true. However it seems to me, especially this year, when he's struggling command he's usually not missing by much. Now maybe Berrios needs to stop trying to make perfect pitches and attack the zone more, maybe he needs to do a bunch of things...it almost seems that Berrios is so confident in his ability to work on the blacks of the plate that he puts himself in those situations. But yes Berrios struggles with command at times, especially when pitching from the stretch with runners on. He gets himself in situations where his "pitcher's pitch" doesn't get called, base-runners get on, he loses composure and innings unravel and he gets even more frustrated. Acknowledging all of this isn't making excuses for Berrios nor is it saying that he doesn't have to figure out how to get better in these scenarios. He does and he'll learn. The margin of error in the MLB is extremely fine and Berrios is finding that out the hard way. A lot of this is just an experience thing that will get better with time.

I actually really like Odorizzi in the role that he's in. Yes, he uses a lot of pitches and yes he's not really ever going to go more than 5 or 6 innings, but I don't really think that's a bad thing. Especially with how situational baseball has become or is trending towards or at least managers/baseball people say they want to trend towards. Odorizzi isn't a good enough pitcher to be able to get away with offering a lot over the plate...so he's going to nibble and throw a lot of pitches that tail out of the zone and aren't great pitches to hit. This is going to rack up his pitch count, it's also going to lead to a lot of walks, however it's also going to lead to a lot of strikeouts and limit hits and balls in play. I think we've seen this is Odorizzi's profile. Further, I've seen analysis that shows that Odorizzi really struggles the 3rd time through most lineups. This kind of style limits your ceiling as a pitcher, but it also raises your floor. You're not going to ever really go past the 6th inning at best, but if you know that and are aware of it you don't have to worry about trying to be super efficient. You know you have 100 or so pitches to get through 5 or 6 innings and you can use them how you please. If you know your #4 or #5 guy is going to give you 5 or 6 innings that either put you ahead or in a position to compete to win a ball game on a nightly basis, good teams should have bullpen depth to be able to navigate 3 or 4 innings. In a way it's almost a perfect role and you should be able to use your bullpen to get the matchups you want and close out games. It might even be the prototypical modern back-end of the rotation starter.

There's been some discussion over the value of a starter versus the value of a reliever and I think in a vaccum that does make sense. However, I do think context matters... This Twins team would benefit much much much more from having the type of reliever that May was flashing before his injury. May was flashing shut down potential before the injury...you wouldn't have been wrong to say future closer. I tend to think that the closer term is a little outdated. I think regardless of where May was trending towards, he was trending towards a guy that you could count on to get you high leverage outs or innings in key situations late in games wherever that may be. He also seems like a guy that could give you 2 shutdown innings on a consistent basis rather than one if you wanted to push him into that role and get a little innovative with it. I have no idea if he will be able to return at that level, but that's one of, if not the biggest factor, that the Twins team is currently missing. Not only do you add that type of player to your bullpen it pushes down all of your other current bullpen arms into "lesser" roles for a lack of a better term adding value all across the board. As a starter May's ceiling is/was a Jake Odorizzi or Kyle Gibson level starter. We have at least 2 of those, 3 if you count Lynn, maybe more if you count some options in the minors. It's not like putting May in that role on a team and in a situation where adding that kind of ability is sorely needed would stop you from being able to stretch him out in the future if we lose our SP depth. It seems to me that both now and for the forseeable future SPing depth is one of our positions of strength to some extent. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Again this wouldn't stop you from being able to stretch out May over the offseason and give him every chance to win a starting job next spring if he earns it either...

I think you gotta ride Dozier, he's got a history of production that's too great to do anything else. If this were a situation where you had a Jorge Polanco or Eduardo Escobar pushing at Dozier's heels or something similar than I could potentially see a switch if the slump were to continue. I just can't see a situation where swapping Dozier's offensive production ceiling for an Adrianza or Petit bat in the lineup would be worth it...even if there's an immediate, albeit marginal jump in production. Dozier's in the middle of a big-time slump (maybe he just broke out of it), but I'd be surprised if this bottom is his new baseline over a long season. There are lots of ups and downs for players over the course of a season and even if Dozier is slipping, which is possible, I highly doubt that his new baseline is below the production that Pettit or other options would provide. I think we're talking about Dozier (at least before yesterday) in the midst of the bottom of a low cycle and it seems a longer-view approach would be more appropriate. With that being said, if Dozier has slipped and I'm not saying it isn't possible that he has, talks about moving him down in the lineup are definitely fair play. Further, hey on the bright side Dozier falling off would be a nice way to make it easy to get rid of him and let Polanco/Gordon or whoever get a shot. _________________________________________________________________________________ As we stand today and this does hide how inconsistent Dozier's season has been (basically a hot streak and a long cold streak) he's on pace for just under 30 doubles and HRs, 5 triples, 70 RBIs, and 98 runs. He's walking less in the past, but he's also only on pace for 127 strikeouts which is actually lower than his career average. With that being said, his OPS is way down and his production has definitely dropped. I'm just not sure it's dropped below Pettitt's level.

Did Buxton not hit .253 last year? Since when did becoming Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper, or Mike Trout be come the barometer of an impactful player. Buxton struggles to make consistent contact and is probably always going to struggle to do so. Further, injuries have pretty consistently kept him from being able to really get in a rhythm playing long stretches of games healthily--which obviously isn't a positive. Buxton had a similar type slump in his first 50-80 ABs last year and hit pretty close to .270 for the remaining 90% of the season. Buxton's gonna be a streaky hitter who struggles to hit for a high average, strikes out a lot, and because of this go through periods where he slumps hard. That doesn't mean that over a full 162 game season he isn't going to be a productive player. His speed and feel for base-running and his ability to drive balls and find gaps when he does make contact mean that he makes a bunch of positive plays too. His 162 game pace last year put him at 80 runs, 17 2Bs, 7 3Bs, 19 HRs, 60 RBIs, 35 SBs. I use the 162 game pace to just show his impact on a per game basis in a similar way to how the NBA lists player stats as 25 points per game/8 assists per game/etc. and players are judged that way even if they only play 65 games. (Not discounting that health is a concern) Those numbers were largely from hitting near the bottom of the order too. Is that Mike Trout? No, but that level of offensive production combined with the value his defense brings to a team put him somewhere between a top 15 and top 25 player in terms of WAR for position players. I'll take a guy with that kind of impact even with his limitations and the fact that he isn't "Mike Trout or Bryce Harper". __________________________________________________________________________________ I'm pretty excited we have a guy, who's only 24, on the team that can impact the game at that high of a level in his own way.

I'm gonna push back here a little bit. I think there's a tendency to penalize players for developing at the Major League level rather than in the minors. Berrios is almost penalized for dominating his peers and reaching the MLB at a time when his peers were at AA or such. It's obvious that Berrios does have some flaws, but it's also obvious that he had nothing left to prove at the minor league level. He's been inconsistent for sure, but I'm not sure growing pains and the real-time process of developing a more mature approach and the consistency it takes at the MLB level to be an "ace" and not just have "ace" stuff is really anything to be alarmed by. Especially towards a guy that at 23 just went 14-8 with a 3.8 era, striking out a batter an inning, allowing less than a hit per inning, and walking guys at lower than the league average rate at 23 years old. His peripherals are better than they were last year, although that does hide some inconsistency in his performance and he's near the league best in exit velocity off the bat--meaning he's generating a ton of weak contact. Progress is hard to see in real time. I highly doubt that Berrios's current 15% HR/FB rate is going to stay that high and I highly doubt a pitcher with well-above league average "stuff" is going to continue to have a strand rate as low as his. He's getting tons of "soft contact", tons of infield pop-ups, and a lot more GBs than previous years. He's generating elite (low) levels of hard contact, getting more swings and misses, etc. Again there are some things to worry about...too many HRs...too many line drives. Too inconsisent with command (although some of that is a little bit of getting squeezed) and a lack of focus and ability to overcome these types of things that are apart of baseball and limit damage. There's also a lot to be positive about too. ________________________________________________________________ I'm not sure if Berrios is going to develop into a true ace, the makeup concerns might prevent that. However concerns around Berrios are much more about whether his weaknesses will make him a "#2" or maybe a borderline #2/#3 (who maybe on an elite championship staff would be a #3, but you can have two #2 caliber pitchers and you should on an elite staff) instead of an ace ....than Berrios's weaknesses making him a #3/#4. Berrios's ERA last year alone was around the 25th-30 range for SPs, man if that's a #4.... Plus, if Berrios develops into a solid #2/elite #3 which he's pretty close to already and that's being a little negative...that's not really that much to be down about. Not many players become Kershaw or Verlander. If he's a tier or a couple tiers from that he's still a well above average player.

It seems like Berrios has been getting squeezed a lot lately. Also seems like there's been a lot of swinging bunt type hits that have fallen in. This has led to a lot of extended innings and extra base runners that might not have been there otherwise. Of course the home runs have been an issue too, although some of that has been compounded by the previous factors. I think he's going to be a guy that gives up some HRs though... With that being said, Berrios has to learn not to unravel when these things are happening and let things spiral. He also needs to become a better pitcher and more consistent with his command out of the stretch. I'm confident if Berrios isn't getting squeezed and the bloop hits aren't falling, he's going to pitch well...however can he overcome some of that adversity in games when it isn't? I want to see more 6 and 7 inning 3 run type starts when those things aren't going well as opposing to 7+ inning 0-1 run starts and 4-5 inning 4 and 5 run starts. This is a lot of what I see going on. Not the worst or most unexplainable thing to be hampering him at 23 on the MLB stage, but it's also a little bit of a concern because it's seemingly more of a makeup thing than something practice and repetition and tweaks with coaching can correct. It's also not a new trend. Not worried yet, but some improvement here would be nice to see soon.

Escobar now has 85 runs, 31 2B - 5 3B - 28 HRs - 93 RBIs while slashing .265/.319/.481/.800 over his last 159 games. Maybe the biggest surprise over that time frame among a number of surprising developments.

____________________________________________________________________________ Trevor May: X-factor ____________________________________________________________________________ 2015 Season--Success both as a Starter and a Setup Man May’s been injured for the last season plus so he might have fallen off the Twins radar, but he was a little bit of an interesting player before his injury. In 2015, as a starter outside of 1 dud right before he got transitioned to the bullpen he had a 0.1 inning 5 run dud--eliminated that dud will make his numbers look better, but be a lot more indicative of how well he was generally pitching that season. In 14 starts and roughly 80 innings May’s numbers were: 3.83 era - 1.30 whip - 8 K’s/9 - 2 BB’s/9 (4 K/BB) - 9.7 H’s/9 The Twins then asked May to transition to a bullpen role and outside of one dud of an appearance, May pitched 34.1 innings 2.38 era - 1.20 whip - 9.8 K’s/9 - 1.85 BB’s/9 (5.3 K/BB) - 8.45 H/9 From the bullpen, May’s FB played in the mid 90’s and he was able to use that fastball combined with a variety of breaking and offspeed pitches including a curve to pitch successfully in a lot of high-leverage situations--even leading to conversations about May eventually closing. So during this season May flashed somewhat similiar to Kyle Gibson or Jake Odorizzi type performance as a starter or a high-leverage 7th/8th/9th inning reliever. At just 25, Twins fans and the team was pretty excited to have this versatility and where it would lead. ____________________________________________________________________________ 2016 Season: Disappointing Surface Numbers That Hide Success, Injured May started 2016 operating out of the bullpen and his numbers were definitely a little bit disappointing before getting hurt with a 5.27 ERA. However, he actually wasn’t as bad as that ERA looks. He allowed less than a hit per inning pitched (39 in 43) and struck out 12.6 batters per 9 innings (60 in 43 innings). May had a stretch of 5 appearances in mid-may where he pitched 3.1 innings and allowed 14 hits, 10 runs, and 4 home runs. I know every pitcher has bad stretches and if you take that sample out his numbers are going to be a little bit better than they should be. However in his other 39 appearances and 39.1 innings pitched May’s numbers look a lot better: 3.45 era - 1.05 whip - 12.7 K’s/9 - 3.7 BB’s/9 - 3.45 K/BB - 5.8 H/9 ____________________________________________________________________________ What Kind of Pitcher is May? No pitcher is going to always consistently be great and relievers numbers can be extremely skewed by a single bad stretch. The Twins got the latter May in 90% (39-44) of his appearances and the awful May in that 5 game stretch. It’s obvious there was some mechanical issue or other issue going on during that time period and once you adjust for that outlier you get much closer to the May that the Twins got in the majority of his outings. I would definitely take a guy who can offer a sub 3.4 era and get a ton of strikeouts and be really tough to hit late in innings if you told me that 9/10 times he would perform like that. The Twins hope that May returns at some point this season. As a reliever May has some games where he drastically implodes, however during 92% of his outings as a reliever in 2015 and 16 (70 out of 76 appearances) The Twins got a guy who pitched at: 3.00 ERA - 1.1 WHIP - 11.3 K’s/9 - 2.8 BB’s/9 - 6.9 H’s/9 in 73.1 innings ____________________________________________________________________________ May Returning To Form Would Make Bullpen Look A Lot Better The Twin’s bullpen is better than it has been, but overall it’s still a weakness for the orginazation and Rodney isn’t the long-term answer at CL either. The Twins do have a few interesting bullpen arms on their major league roster in Trevor Hildenburger, Ryan Pressly, and maybe Addison Reed and/or Taylor Rogers. However, if May can return to form...I’d feel a lot more comfortable with the bullpen next season with May in the group. May/Hildenburger/Pressly as 7th/8th inning options with Reed/Rogers playing depth roles would be a really solid group to set up a potential closer solution whoever that may be next year. Further, I wouldn’t be afraid to let May attempt to grab a closer spot IF he can return to his pre-injury form and establish himself in that way htis year. With that being said, I think the Twins should try and bring May back this year in a reliever role...over the offseason and spring training they can try and stretch him out into a starter to see what he can give them as he flashed an ability to be a solid #4ish type guy. This should allow him to compete with Gibson, Odorizzi, and others for the 2 spots behind Romero/Berrio/Gonsalves, but also give the Twins an arm they can count on in the bullpen.

____________________________________________________________________________ The Twins Bullpen Now and Going Forward: ____________________________________________________________________________ The Twins bullpen is their obvious weak-point--there is some promise though I personally think Rodney is at best a league average closer and probably something somewhere below average. I think he’s going to cost the Twins games this year and I think he already has. With that being said, I’m not sure the Twins have the best group in the league...but Trevor Hildenburger, Ryan Pressly, and A. Reed are doing a pretty solid job as the 7th/8th inning guys. While Taylor Rogers and Zach Duke have been inconsistent as spot/situational relievers, I think both have enough track record where they are *okay* in their role too. If any other bullpen pitcher is in, the Twins are already in trouble. Help On The Way Should Improve Depth The Twins do have help on the way, Ervin Santana returning from injury which will push a starter into the bullpen and should give the Twins a good 4th/5th/6th inning guy to come in and get the ball to Hildenburger/Pressly/A. Reed. Further, potential contributions from Trevor May (especially) and also Michael Pineda could give the Twins high-impact arms that would allow the Twins to pretty much have the 6th-8th innings covered between May/Hildenburger/Pressly/Reed. Potential Talent in AA and AAA In their system, the Twins do have a little bit of talent, but I’m not sure there are any guys that you could realistically project to really dominate in a way that would put them on this big league squad before rosters expand. AAA: At Triple A, there are a few interesting names although I’m not sure if any can be counted as sure-fire future high-leverage/late-game/closer type relievers. The Twins bullpen at AAA is actually really good. Nick Anderson, Jake Reed, John Curtiss, and Gabriel Moya are all names that could eventually find their way onto the Twins 25 man roster that have had success at at the minor league level--I’m just not sure which players and when. AA: At Double A, Tyler Jay has struggled with injuries, but is the Twins former 2015 1st round pick and is putting up really good numbers, however he’s struggled with injuries this year and been limited in innings. If Jay can stay healthy for a few months, he’ll likely get called up to AAA pretty quickly and pretty quickly to the majors after that. Jay doesn’t have true closer type potential, but he could be a valuable 5th/6th/7th inning guy to set up the late-inning game guys and a tool that the Twins can use as a situational left-hander--potentially a better Duffey per say. ____________________________________________________________________________ Gabriel Moya ____________________________________________________________________________ Moya is a LHP who put up a 0.77 ERA/0.77 WHIP in 58 innings at AA in 2017. He allowed just 30 hits (4.6 H/9) and just 15 walks (2.3 BB/9) while striking out 87 (13.5 K/9) and limiting home runs allowing just 2 (0.3 HRs/9 innings). He’s also had success in limited innings at AAA this year. Unfortunately, Moya hasn’t been able to translate this success to the majors yet with a 7.15 ERA in 11.1 innings at the end of last season (straight from AA) and beginning of this season after impressing in spring training. Extremely small sample size, but it suggests that Moya isn’t ready yet. At just 23, he’s got plenty of time to develop as a reliever and I hope the Twins give him every chance to do so. I’m not sure he’s got closer potential, but I think he does have the potential to be a guy you could look to in high-leverage setup situations. He would be a great option as both a LHP specialist for the Twins and another guy they can throw in their late-inning mix. The Twins should look to give him some seasoning time at AAA and hopefully give him another shot sometime after the All-Star Break. ____________________________________________________________________________ John Curtiss ____________________________________________________________________________ Curtiss is another guy that’s dominated the minors, but hasn’t been able to translate it to success in the majors. Curtis has really good career minor league numbers with a 2.96 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 7.7 H9, 3.1 BB9, 11.5 K9, 0.5 HR9, etc. He throws hard enough to be interesting with a FB running 93-98 and has some potential with his offspeed pitches too. Last season between AA/AAA in 49.1 innings, Curtiss allowed just 23 hits (4.2 H9) 0 home runs (0 HR9) 22 walks (4.0 BB9) 68 K’s (12.5 K9) with a 1.45 ERA and 0.912 WHIP. Like Moya, Curtiss struggled after getting called up at the end of last season for a cup of coffee and also in a spot appearance this season. However, the raw numbers and stuff is intriguing. At only 25, Curtiss is definitely another guy that the Twins should watch and hope performs a lot better when he gets a chance after the all-star break sometime this year and solidifies himself in Spring Training next season. Curtiss is no sure thing, but he’s another guy that could be an above average option for the Twins next to their current options. ____________________________________________________________________________ Nick Anderson ____________________________________________________________________________ Anderson is an older prospect at 27, but he started late at 24 after a few years in independent leagues. He’s had minor league success at just about every level posting a career 1.63 era - 0.844 whip and 28 saves in 138 career minor league innings. His peripheral stats are: 5.6 H9, 2.0 BB9, 0.3 HR9, 10.7 K9. He’s been old for every level he’s played at so he should be succeeding, but he’s certainly done that and more showing both the ability to limit hits, miss bats, keep the ball in the park, and good control. Last season at A+/AA in 54 innings he allowed just 32 hits (5.3 H9) walked just 10 (1.7 BB9) didn’t allow a HR (0 HR9) and struck out 57 batters (9.5 K9) leading to a 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 11 saves. Those numbers have continued to AAA this year, in his first stint he’s pitched 14.1 innings allowing just 8 hits (5 H9) 4 walks (2.5 BB9) striking out 20 (12.6 K9) with a 0.63 era and 0.84 whip. This means that Anderson has only been getting better as his competition gets better--a good sign for him. It’s hard to find a good scouting report for what kind of “stuff” Anderson has, he’s 6’5 and long which is the prototype for pitchers and has had success at every level and has arguably been the most productive reliever in the Twins system over the last few years. Anderson turns 28 in July, with his age and obvious advanced feel for pitching the Twins should look to promote him as soon as possible. He might just be a diamond in the rough. ____________________________________________________________________________ Jake Reed ____________________________________________________________________________ Reed has made good impressions in spring training for a few years now, but his 2017 season was delayed by a shoulder injury that hampered his MLB debut plans. He allowed one run (on a HR) in six innings with four walks and eight K’s this spring in MLB camp. He’ll be a big part of Rochester’s bullpen to start the 2018 season, a phone call away. Reed’s got a blazing fastball and throws extremely hard while also possessing capable secondary pitches. He reached AAA extremely quickly at 23 years old part way through the 2016 season. He looked to be poised to start strong and eventually move into the Twins bullpen last season, but his development last season was largely stalled by injuries. He’s been plagued by injuries this season and only pitched 3.1 innings, although nothing that should keep him out super long-term. He’s another guy Twins fans should be watching. If he can string together a few healthy productive months the Twins will likely call him up. _____________________________________________________________________ Tyler Jay _____________________________________________________________________ Jay has struggled with injuries, but is the Twins former 2015 1st round pick that the Twins converted to reliever at the beginning of the 2017 season. Unfortunately, his development has really been slowed by injuries over the last season + and so it’s tough to say how well that experiment is going. If Jay can stay healthy, he’s a talented LHP that could be a middle innings guy and specialist against left-handed hitters. If Jay can play that role well, the Twins will have a valuable piece they can add to their bullpen even if that role is smaller than some other roles. _____________________________________________________________________ Those are the 5 names to watch in the system for both the 2018/19 season and beyond

Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario have been two of the stars for the Twins thus far this season. It seems that Max Kepler is finally having the breakout season many have predicted him to have and Eddie Rosario is proving that last season's breakout was for real. Max Kepler Kepler's production during the first 30+ games this season has been more surprising. The most notable thing for me is the improvement in his BB% and K% to about 11.5% and 13% respectively. Kepler seems to have taken a jump forward in terms of his approach at the plate and command of an at bat. This improvement in approach and command has allowed him to be in more positive hitting situations and has meant that he's no longer getting himself out very much at all. He's going deep into at bat's forcing pitcher's to throw him strikes and pitches that he can hit and not swinging if they don't--he's avoiding K's and putting ball's in play at Mauer type rates. I'm not sure which way the correlation lies, but either because of this or as a product of this Kepler has seemingly finally figured out how to hit LHP's. In the past Kepler's extreme struggles at hitting LHP caused his overall numbers to really balloon downward. It seems that Kepler's step forward in terms of ability to work an at bat and be a better hitter has allowed him to figure out LHP. Naturally his numbers have followed. Kepler's current 162 game pace is roughly 55 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs with a .275/.356/.865 split. Naturally, if he figured out how to hit LHP like he could RHP these types of numbers would follow. Kepler's always been an XBH machine because of his line drive swing and ability to drive the ball. His improvement in approach is allowing him to do this more consistently regardless of the handedness of the pitcher. It's too optimistic to project those kind of XBH numbers to continue over the rest of the season, but if the approach improvement is real...45 2B's + 3B's and 25 home runs is not an outlandish projection by really any stretch. Kepler's been able to be, even with his extreme platoon, a 35ish 2B +3B and low 20 HR guy before this season, an improvement in approach and ability to hit LHP should push those numbers upwards. Further, even more optimistically...Kepler's BABIP is just .289 meaning that this isn't a streak aided by a high-dose of luck and balls falling in. In fact, he's well below the league average .300 and even further below the BABIP of someone who barrel's the ball and sprays line drives all over the field like Kepler does. We'll see if the approach improvement continues, but Kepler is an extremely tough out right now--and if he continues driving the ball like he has the RBIs and runs will follow. Eddie Rosario Eddie Rosario has always been an XBH machine as well from the day he stepped foot in the MLB....last season he was able to put it together, especially in terms of HRs instead of XBH's, in a way that he hadn't been able to before--also coincided with an improvement in approach. This season he's backing it up and is on a 162 game pace of 50 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 35 HRs, 122 RBIs, 115 runs, and 20 SBs. Rosario is absolutely filling up the stat sheet and producing in a crazy way. Again this kind of production over a full-season is too optimistic to predict, but 45 2Bs+3Bs, 30 HRs, 100 runs, and 100+ RBI's is not too outlandish to predict. That's an insane amount of production. Miguel Sano Past those two, even with all of the negativity surrounding Sano, the inconsistency, and the lack of ability to consistently stay healthy enough to get in a rhythm. Sano has produced per 162 games at a 100 run, 30 2B, 40 HR, 105 RBI, mid .350 OBP pace. Maybe he has to move to DH to stay fully healthy over a full-season, but regardless that Offensive baseline is hard to match on a per game basis. It's not that hard to argue that there might even be another level of play in those numbers because those are numbers Sano has been able to put up while playing through, missing time, or coming back from injuries without being able to get in a rhythm. Now the flip side of that is, he hasn't been able to do that and there's no guarentee that he will...but that's a lot of Offensive production. Byron Buxton Past this, you've got Byron Buxton--who's got a lot of the same type of inconsistency and injury factors for different reasons that Sano has. However last season, even with Buxton not being anywhere near the type of hitter his potential says he could be....Buxton according to most WAR measures was arguably a top 20 or top 25 position player in the MLB...if not better. His baserunning ability and speed combined with his XBH hit ability because of his skillset when he does make contact (which isn't always easy) make him an extremely valuable player. He might never be a high average guy who can make a ton of consistent contact or limit strikeouts, but he's so efficient with his opportunities when on base and takes so many extra bases that he still can produce a lot of production. This combined with some of the best defense ever played at the position make another extremely valuable player--maybe the Twins best player even he doesn't improve on last season's offensive numbers. If the improvement from Kepler is real, which there's a lot to suggest that it might be at least to a good extent, and with Rosario and Sano...that's an extremely dangerous middle of the order. That kind of XBH/power potential from those 3 in the middle of the order surrounded by Buxton's speed, value on the bases, and also his ability to hit a lot of XBH's sprinkled in...is the foundation of the kind of lineup the Twins have only fielded a few times in their history. Especially if you put Buxton somewhere near the bottom of the line-up meaning when he is on base, the top of the order is coming up and more than likely to drive him in. If Kepler is for real, no matter what the Twins surround that with...and they've got some talent to surround them with...that's an extremely high ceiling for the Offense that's been unlocked largely by Kepler's ability to become a complete hitter--especially if he can keep up the OBP numbers. I would argue that a Kepler/Buxton/Rosario OF, all 24 or 25 years old, is arguably the best 2 way OF group in the league behind maybe the Yankees. 1: 2: Kepler or _____ 3:Sano 4: Rosario 5: ______ or Kepler 6: 7: 8: 9: Buxton Then you start fiddling around with putting guys like Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, and eventually Polanco and prospects around those guys and it's extremely impressive. What do you guys think about Kepler and Rosario and the ultimate ceiling of their games? And if you surround those guys with skillsets like Sano and Mauer which are a little bit of 1 trick skillsets, but nonetheless valuable and I'm really really optimistic about that ceiling.

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