twins1095

Think we see Sano today? I'm hoping so.

In my opinion, it is crystal clear that the Twins need to add at least 1 good arm to both their starting pitching and bullpen. Improvements from Odorizzi/Perez aside, when comparing the Twins staff to other contenders staff it's clear that the Twins is magnitudes behind others--both in top end talent and depth. Now imagine when the Twins staff faces the inevitable 1-2-3+ injuries/key injuries they will face this season. Now imagine the Twins have to trot out Kohl Steweart, Pineda, and say Gonsalves for an extended period of time. Trouble.

Based on what evidence, other than a "feeling", do you base this conjecture on?

This actually goes back to the August/September of 2017. Polanco's final 55 games were in the .950-1000 range. He's got an an .860+ OPS in his last 165 games and in his last ~650 ABs. Outside of small sample size period especially when he's done it over 3 separate seasons meaning its not just a case of being locked in for a period of time during 1 season.

With Jose Ramirez's struggles this season and extending back to the all-star break last season, I think we may have a freaky Friday situation with him and Polanco. Need proof? When did Polanco return to the MLB? (the last half of last season)

In most cases, confirmed. If I recall correctly.... technically Bonds and Ortiz have never been *confirmed* in an official sense of the world steroid users although both were steroid users to various extents. That is why I used "have or have been rumored" just to cover that end.

What does not sell you on Sano as a long-term everyday option in the event that he's healthy? If you're worried about his ability to stay healthy on a consistent basis, that's fair. However, that takes out the controversy. Miguel Sano's career OPS is .813. His career averages per 162 games are 35 HRs - 100 RBIs - 30 2Bs - 90 runs - .336 OBP. That includes his awful injury filled half season last year. Before that his numbers per 162 were ~ .350 obp - 40 HR - 35 2B - 110 RBIs - 100 runs. Nelson Cruz is the only active Twin who gets on base more in terms of career averages. Cruz is also the only guy who rivals Sano in terms of power production or run producing potential. Questioning Sano's ability to stay healthy is fair, suggesting that he falls short of the Miguel Cabrera type player some hoped him to be is also fair, not liking his style of play is fair too. However, questioning his overall body of work in terms of production when on the field is disingenuous. End of story. For me, it's hard to put a ton of stock into Sano slumping and playing through injuries before shutting things down as the true value of his production over the previous sample of 1200 ABs. We have seen already with Buxton how much stock should be put into injury-ridden small sample sizes. Sano is held to a different standard by Twins fans because of what he can be and what he already is, is often forgotten. Even last season, Sano at his worst is essentially a slightly better of the current version of CJ Cron. Again that is a slumping/injuried/not 100% Sano versus a 100% Cron. Use that measure to put things into perspective. The idea that adding Sano to the 4/5 spot in this lineup won't immediately and dramatically improve the teams offensive depth and ceiling is objectively absurd. __________________________________________________________________ There are very real questions about Sano's long-term future due to his injury issues likely stemming in large part from weight issues stemming from lifestyle choices that lend to the idea that he's a player that lacks maturity, focus, and work-ethic. However, despite those very real truths the production and body of work he's put up over a 1400 plate appearance sample (and especially over his first 1200 plate appearances) speaks for itself and should not be discounted or minimized.

Barry Bonds had an OPS between 1.000 and 1.140 in the 8 seasons before he was reported to begin steroid use. Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz, Jorge Polanco, Melky Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Robinson Cano, Starlin Marte, Ervin Santana, Jhonny Peralta, Dee Gordon, Freddy Galvis, Marlon Byrd That list is all examples of players that have or have been rumored to take steroids and have since come back and performed at comparable levels or higher to their performance during the time-period they were rumored to be using.

I like the combination of the 94-96 4 seam high, an 88-90 mph cutter with some run and downward action, and an 85-86 mph changeup with some downward and run action. 3 different pitch speeds/movements all thrown out of the same arm angle. If he can locate that and then mix in the curve as well to keep hitters honest...that's pretty dangerous and repeatable.

Thanks, I appreciate it. I started out wanting to do a little bit more analysis and get into comparables, but it was late and I was an hour + into the post already. Might go ahead and do that still in the comments, but I thought I'd lay out the framework of the profile and anchor it to some context in terms of peer production around the league and his age group and let the discussion hopefully get to some conclusions.

I’m not sure I really believe that steroids ultimately have much of a correlation to production other than in terms of injury recovery abilities which keeps you playing fresher on a more consistent basis. Time and time again we see guys who got suspended for roofs playing at the same level once they return.

Typo, Flipped around 2B and 3B. Good catch. Can a mod edit? Or can I? I don’t see an immediate option to do so. I don’t think anyone thinks .988 is realistic. His last 164 games he’s .864 OPS... so that is a realistic 162 game stretch. We’ll see what he ends up at but he’s quite literally done that on a season long sample.

To be fair, no drama might be pushing it. The first 80 games of 2017 says otherwise. Spot on post though I agree 100%.

Polanco has flashed a big time XBH tool at times. In the off-season of 2017, there a number of articles diving deeply into his profile and suggesting something similar to 2016/2017 Jose Ramirez (before the huge power surge)as a comparison (we’ll probably a little bit of a Jose Ramirez-lite, but that’s where the ceiling is at. Polanco’s pretty realistic floor at this point this season is 35+ 2B - 20+ HR - 7-8 3B - ~.285 He’s got a solid shot at 40+ 2B - 10 3B - 20+ HR - .300 average

Jorge Polanco has had an absolutely incredible start to the season. He's been pretty incredible at the plate since the last half of 2017 (if I recall correctly he's top 20 in OPS during that period; albeit in a smaller sample size than most). Let's take a quick deeper dive into the numbers to give some context of the type of production that we're watching on a daily basis. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco's current 2019 162 game pace ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Slash line (http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/32525/jorge-polanco) .317 avg - .388 obp - .998 ops Counting stats 102 Total XBH - (21 3B - 51 2B - 30 HR) 101 runs - 71 RBI - 0 SB - 72 BB - 96 K *Advanced Stats (https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13152&position=SS) *1 game lag 9.7 BB% 14.2 K% .323 BABIP .393 wOBA w147 RC+ .269 ISO 24.2 LD% - 54.5% FB% 41.6 Hard Hit% - 41.6 Medium Hit% - 16.8 Soft Hit% 1.4 fWAR ___________________________________________________________________________________________ .Conclusion ___________________________________________________________________________________________ We can take this a number of ways, but the profile suggests this is legit. Hits a ton of balls in play/doesn't strike out much/good strikezone profile, hits a ton of balls hard, hits a ton of line drives, more fly balls, plus baserunner, above average fielder. He basically can do it all. The most noticable difference from last season is the LD%/FB% increases that have led to more consistent extra base power. Ticked up the BB rate and down the K rate as well. BABIP for a player with his hit tool and wOBA suggests he's pretty measurably putting up sustainable production. The next logical discussion step is how good is Polanco, how can we judge him among his peers at SS and/or middle infielders? Who are his player comparables? How good can he be? ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco stats since all-star break 2017. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ During the first portion of 2017, Polanco was one of the unluckiest players in the league with a BABIP near the league bottom and peripherals that suggested the talent previously seen before that season. During August, that luck normalized and even reversed itself. We will begin the sample on August 1st of 2017. Sample Size 2017 - 55g - 206 AB 2018 - 77g - 302 AB 2019 - 32g - 123 AB Total - 164g - 631 AB Totals 164g - 631 ab - 86 runs - 191 hits - 43 2B - 9 3B - 22 HR - 96 RBI - 57 BB - 113K - 14 SB Slash line .303 avg - .360 obp - 504 slg% - .864 ops ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Based on 2018 stats among... ___________________________________________________________________________________________ All hitters Avg (15th) OBP (t33rd) SLG (25th) OPS (t23rd) Shortstops Avg (t2nd - Segura .304) OBP (t2nd - Machado - .367 - Bogaerts .360) SLG (6th - same 5 as below are ahead) OPS (6th - Story .941 - Machado .905 - Bogaerts - .883 - Baez - .881 - Lindor .871) Middle infielders Avg (5th - Altuve .316 - Gennet .310 - Merrifield .304 - Segura .304) OBP (t4th J. Ramirez .387 - Altuve .386 - Merrifield .367 + Machado above) SLG (7th - J. Ramirez - .540 + 5 above) OPS (7th - Altuve .939 + 5 above) ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Jorge Polanco is not quite thought of on the level of those players listed among his peers in the categories above. It's just about time to stat thinking of Polanco as one of the best younger middle infielders in the game. Polanco has been around for seemingly ever, but at 25 years old he's actually really young--even younger than other MI's that we consider young phenoms. Here are the 2018 top SS's by OPS Merrifield - 30 years oldWendle - 29 years oldGregorious - 29 years oldGennett - 29 years oldShaw - 29 years oldSegura - 29 years oldAltuve - 28 years oldJ. Ramirez - 26 years oldBaez - 26 years oldStory - 26 years oldMachado - 26 years oldBogearts - 26 years oldJurickson Profar - 26 years oldTrea Turner 25 (1 month older than Polanco)Ketel Marte - 25 years old (3 months younger than Polanco)Odor - 25 years old (7 months younger than Polanco / another one of those early MLB guys)Lindor - 25 years old (4 months younger than Polanco)Albies - 22 years old Some players spend longer in the minors and do most of their development at the minor league level and essentially produce near their ceiling from almost day 1. Players like Polanco, who hit the majors at 20 years old, and do a lot of their developing in the majors (also hampered by injuries/suspensions), can easily be penalized in a way that they shouldn't for playing against better competition than their age-peers generally playing at much lower levels. Polanco is one of those such players. Essentially other than Albies, Polanco is among the youngest tier of MI players producing at a high level in the MLB. I thought that list would put things into perspective. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Twins Daily, what are your thoughts on Polanco? Do you consider him a top 5 SS in the MLB? If not, when can those discussions begin? Polanco is a really exciting young player that will hopefully be a staple in the middle of the Twins infield for the next 5-7 years minimum.

As if Schoop/Gonzalez have shown anything thus far to warrant being "automatic" pencil ins. The whole point of bringing Gonzalez in was for flexibility. I mean, the OFs have not been great either. As long as Astudillo stays hot and produces at a .300+ clip... it's pretty easy put him in and use positional flexibility to fill out the rest of the lineup.

Right. I'm not disagreeing, I'm just saying that generally Buxton needs less times on base to produce the amount of runs compared to other players who need higher slash lines to produce the same amount of runs. There's some context to be had too. Buxton's struggled a bunch this season at the plate I'm not arguing that, but the sample size is small and most of it comes through a stretch in which injuries/etc further give reason to explain, but not excuse, the poor slash. Last year Buxton started out 4-49 in his first 13 games for a slash line of .082-.135-.257 with 1 run - 2 doubles - 0 3B - 0 HR - 0 RBI - 1 SB - 2 BB - 24 K's (~10% of the season) In the final 120 games Buxton played and 410 ABs (~90% of the season) for a slash line of .275/.335/.785 - 9 BB% - 30K% with 68 runs - 12 2B - 6 3B - 16 HR - 51 RBI - 28 SB 162 game pace for that production is: 90 runs - 16 2B - 8 3B - 21 HR - 68 RBI - 37 SB __________________________________________________________________________ I would argue that volume season numbers do matter, but should be taken with context. For 90% of Buxton's season (and consistently over a 122 game stretch) Buxton performed like the 2nd stat line--that's a lot of production from the bottom of the order. If you told me that a 9/10 times you're getting a player with the bottom line with the kind of defense Buxton plays I'm ecstatic. Even with the struggles to begin the year and the inconsistency, etc. Buxton's WAR numbers put him, depending on which calculation, somewhere in the top 15-25 position players from a value standpoint. Yes, a lot of that comes from his defense...Yes he's streaky...Yes he strikes out too much...Yes he isn't likely to ever develop into the hitter he was projected to have the potential to be. But with all of those things in mind, none of those very valid criticisms seem to bar him from being a borderline elite value player. _________________________________________________________________________ I think we need to take a longer view here. I understand all of the frustrations, especially as a hitter and in terms of health consistency and especially viewed within the context of what Buxton could be if some of these inconsistencies were fixed. But I think this lens prevents appreciation of what Buxton actually is despite a current track that suggests he's going to leave some potential and maybe quite a bit of potential on the table. But even leaving that on the table, Buxton is still tracking towards a player who, with what he does have, can be a top 20 or borderline top 20 position player in terms of positive value to a team. Yes, there's a lot of potential that is being left on the table, but there's also a lot there...even as a hitter.

It does tell a relatively accurate story, but I think it's important to note that Buxton is more efficient with his opportunities on base than other guys--maybe more so than any player on the bases. He's gonna pick up more bases and ultimately score more runs than other guys which means he doesn't need to be on base as much to ultimately produce the same amount of runs as other guys. So the slash line does tell an accurate story, but there's a little more value there to that slash line than meets the eye because of how efficient and productive he is when on base.

I like it. I was hesitant to use Kubel because of the way his career turned out and wanted to use a more positive comparision of what production could like *something* like at the MLB level if Kirrilloff continues to perform--I use something loosely as Morneau is a lofty comparision, but I think there are some general similarities there in the types of ways both players hitting styles work and the kinds of things they look to do to be successful. I guess on this board pre-injury Jason Kubel is about as high of praise as you can receive though, sometimes I forget where I am The biggest difference I see between the two is Kubel's 9.7 BB% and 11.3 K% compared to Kirrilloff's 4.3 BB% and 21.1 K%. The difference may slightly be the results of a different age in hitting with different focuses and less negativity towards strikeout's, but Kubel's average/power toolset combined with his low strikeout totals and good walk rate was why he was the second-coming pre-injury. That's an almost perfect hitter. I guess you can't have everything in a comparision so I still feel it's as good as any, especially in trying to compare Kirrilloff to former prospects that have moved through the Twins system--but I do think the differences in BB%/K% profiles do to some degree make me want to put on the pre-injury Kubel hype train. I do like that they are both coming off about 50 games of experience in rookie ball and entering their first season of A ball at the same age 20 season. Although while I say that and go back and check Kirilloff's total's thus far, I am greeted with a 3-4 3 run, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 strikeout performance by Kirilloff today--so maybe I should just shut up now . Kubel's A Season Per 162 Games (115 games): Slash: .321-.380 - 501 -. 901 PGP: 85 runs -36 2Bs - 6 3Bs - 24 HRs - 97 RBI Kirilloff A Season Per 162 Games (30 games): Slash: .317-.354-.618-.974 PGP: 97 runs - 70 2B - 16 3B - 33 HR - 157 RBIs 119 XBH and 157 RBIs!!!! ______________________________________________________________________ Of course, Kubel went on to have a 22 year old season in AA/AAA 2 years later playing 127 games with: Slash: .352-.414-.590-1.004 - 10.8 BB% 12,1K% Numbers: 96 runs - 42 2B - 4 3B - 22 HR - 100 RBI - and even 16 SB for his own measure. Per 162/pace: 123 runs - 54 2B - 5 3B - 28 HR - 128 RBI - 20 SB ____________________________________________________________________ It's still a little painful to see the kind of player Kubel could have been pre-leg injury. So yeah, overall the loose comparisons between the natural power in their swings that allow thing to them to hit somewhere close to 30 homers and a ridiculous amount of doubles and triples without sacrificing areas of their swing to generate that power enabling them to be able to maintain a .300+ average. The pessimist in me still can't get past the differences in their BB%/KK% profiles though. Kubel's above average walk rate combined with his borderline elite strikeout percentage which offers/offered a much stronger and more secure platform to launch the rest of the hit tool at higher levels and at the major league level. So I guess I agree that Kubel and Kirilloff seem to have a chance to operate similarily with the bat once contact is made, but I think different levels of plate approaches keep Kirilloff from being on Kubel pre-injury level yet _____________________________________________________________________ Thinking out loud: Are there any comparables we can think of for a guy with a 5-7 BB% and 20ish K%? I checked the 2017 HR leaders list and there actually are some closer possible comparables than I thought there would be: 1. Jose Abreu--156g - 95 runs - 43 2B - 6 3B - 33 HRs - 102 RBI -- .304/,354/.906 -- 5.2 BB% - 17.6 K% - 4.2 WAR 2. Jonathon Schoop -- 160g - 92 runs - 35 2B - 32 HRs - 105 RBI -- .293/.338/.841 - 5.2 BB% - 21 K% 0 3.8 WAR 3. Ryan Zimmerman -- 144g - 90 runs - 33 2B - 36 HR - 108 RBI -- .303/.358/.931 -- 7.6 BB% - 21.9 K% - 3.3 WAR 4. Gary Sanchez -- 122g - 20 2B - 33 HR - 90 RBI -- .280/.345/.876 -- 7.5 BB% - 23 K% - 4.4 WAR 5. Eddie Rosario -- 151g - 79 runs - 33 2B - 27 HR - 78 RBI -- .290/.328/.835 -- 5.9BB% - 18K% -- 2.5 WAR ________________________________________________________________________ So if the power, contact, and hit skills are true and continue to play at a higher levels ... Jose Abreu seems like somewhat close to what we can think of a best possible scenario for Kirilloff's future projection. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml

Oh I understand that. The main reason I wrote this post was to highlight the peripherals in Kepler's game this season--better approach, walking more, striking out less, hitting both handedness, tons of XBH, average took a jump in accordance to these peripheral changes. At the time the traditional stats were there too, but he's hit a streak of extremely bad luck. Interestingly he's mashing LHP this year to the tune of .323-.382-.645-1.028 -8.8BB%-11.8K%-.320 BABIP Only 34 ABs, but 4 2Bs, 2 HRs, suggest he's not only hitting for average against LHP, but he's also driving the ball. Further, he's not striking out or being fooled against lefties like last year (5.5 BB% - 29.1 K%) It's against RHP he's struggling this year, but it seems to be more bad luck than anything. His approach is good 11.3BB% - 13.8K%.... Further he's hitting 14% soft contact -- 42% medium contact -- 44% hard contact so he's not making a lot of soft contact and making a lot of hard contact. It honestly makes no sense to see those peripherals and then see a slash line of .225-.313-.406-.713 with a BABIP of .241 He's still getting a decent amount of XBH despite this too, his current pace against righties is 32 doubles and 14 HRs so it seems his HR/FB rate is down this season against righties at about 8.3% from 13.8% last year while making more hard contact (36.5% last year) ____________________________________________________________________________ I don't think there's much to make of it other than Kepler's battling a ton of bad luck that, while it isn't Polanco-esque from the first half of last year, could begin to approach it if it continues. With that being said, the peripherals are there. Kepler seems to have taken a step forward in his approach on both sides of the plate which should give him a solid platform to take a step forward this season. Further, he seems to be making more hard contact and less soft contact and he's driving the ball and getting his usual high numbers of XBH's despite fighting the bad luck. Other than the decrease in HR/FB the only real possibly significant difference I can find without digging to a level of depth that I'm not patient enough to get to, is that against RHP's he's pulling the ball a lot more this year (43 - 39.5 - 17.5) compared to last year (44 - 31.5 - 24.5). I guess even then the real shift is only in that he's driving more balls up the middle instead of the other way...which seemingly means he's staying on balls better one could argue. As I try to wrap up this post, a thought popped up in my mind that maybe they're shifting Kepler more or differently? I'm not really sure how to tell if there's a difference in the type of shifts he's facing, but fangraphs suggests he's pretty much around the same against shifts this season...and teams don't appear to be shifting him more than previous seasons. _________________________________________________________________________ But again if the peripherals hold I'm still extremely confident that Kepler's positioned to take a step forward. It's not often that players make the kind of jump in approach that Kepler has and don't improve. More walks, less strikeouts, more hard contact, and less contact seem to be pretty much the exact formula to improve ones game. We're at a point in the season 23% of the way through where earlier season trends can begin to be examined more closely to a baseline--at least for this season anyways. Here's to rereading these posts at the end of June or something similar and Kepler's bad luck evening itself out.

Defense (55) – Wade has tremendous instincts in the outfield. That has allowed him to handle center field to this point in his minor league career, but he would likely be better suited in a corner spot, probably left field to suit his arm, and he could be an elite defender at that position with his instincts. You left out the last part of that scouting report. He's a 55 OF when grading his ability to play center-field at the major league level given a below average arm and lack of true top-end speed. Second, a 55 grade is solidly above average not basically average...but these are just numbers. I think given his good defensive instincts, above average speed, and consistent minor league track record suggest that as a LF he's definitely closer to good than he is average.

There's plenty of time this thinking leads to the bullpen giving up runs coming in cold with men on base. Berrios wanted this inning bad you saw how animated he was. He was calling for that inning even when it was tied.

Not a fan of Molly taking Berrios out here. Berrios wanted it and has been dealing. That ball drifted a little inside in an at bat in which Berrios was ahead after striking out the first batter. Especially in a 3 run game. Guess he doesn't wanna have Berrios go from the stretch--admittedly he's a worse pitcher from the stretch.

I think this low BABIP for someone who hits as many balls hard as Kepler does is probably going to be pretty much entirely explained by his platoon splits and his inability (pre-2018 at least) to hit lefties. I would guess if you looked at his BABIP by pitcher handedness Kepler’s BABIP against RHP’s will be somewhere in the neighborhood of .300 or better while against LHP’s it will be much worse...dragging down his overall BABIP. Looking at fangraphs this is exactly the case, Kepler’s BABIP against RHP was .296 and .203 against LHP. When you’re hitting .150-.210-.450 against lefties with a 5 BB% and 30%, you aren’t making hard contact and your babip is gonna be really low—dragging down your overall BABIP. This is the same phenomena that affects all of his stats and make it so impressive that he’s able to put up pretty respectable numbers despite this split. The key to Kepler unlocking his potential is in him hitting lefties, if not at the same level he hits righties, something passable. For example, Kepler last year against righties hit: Slash: .272-345-.830 - 9.5BB% -17K% 162/pace: 105 run -50 2B - 30 HR - 100 RBI

Really good post. I agree that Wade should be higher on current prospect boards. My board is something like: --Royce Lewis --Fernando Romero --Nick Gordon --Graterol --Stephen Gonsalves --Alex Kirilloff --Lamont Wade My order starts to get a little bit muddier here, but the next group of guys I have is in some order that i could be convinced given the day: --Wander Javier --Brent Rooker --Akil Badoo --Blayne Enlow --Lewin Diaz --Lewis Thorpe --Zack Littell My thoughts get even muddier after that.