twins1095

Fair answer. More scenario information: Player A’s most used spot in the lineup is say 4th. Player B’s is say 7th. Some of the rbi difference can be explained by better hitters on base in front of Player A and more protection behind. That being said, Player A has more pressure to produce. Does that change your answer at all?

Let's do a little player comparison using current 2019 season averages per 162 games (to get an idea of per game production). Player A... .312 OBP - .841 OPS110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIsProjected to get on base 218 times during 162 games 4.32 PA per game / 3.45 pitches per plate appearance / 698 PAs per 162 game Player B... .306 OBP - .883 OPS111 runs - 32 2B - 60 HRs (92 total XBH) - 111 RBIs Projected to get on base 208 times during 162 games4.2 PAs per game / 4.35 pitches per AB / 680 PAs per 162 gamesProjected to get on base 214 times with 114 rbis and runs if you even out PAs Which player would you take and why? How much more valuable is that player than the other player you didn't choose to take?

Interested in feedback on the velocity decline.

I read something that Perez's velocity was down in his last start. Watching the gun early in his start today. fastball looks to be 91-93 rather than 94-96. Any concerns?

Agree Seth! Just think his floor is really high in terms of being a productive player with the quality of ABs he takes! I've always thought he's the kind of guy that could impress over time, but understand that this is likely a short stint. The question will be how well the hit tool plays at the major league level. To me, even as a 4th OF I'd much rather have Wade than say Cave because of the quality AB factor. Either way, I'm with you on being high on Wade. I'm cultish about Wade the same way others are about Tortuga (and you are right with the anti Tortuga comment). Hoping we get a chance to see a couple games understanding that whatever happens in that small sample doesn't mean much. I do hope, however, that Wade can jump himself up the charts similar to how Arraez has done so in terms of how much the Twins trust him whenever the next round of injury bugs hit again.

Wade is going to impress and I'm extremely excited he's getting an opportunity. His plate approach skills will play in the majors. He's Robbie Grossman with a slightly better hit tool, foot speed, and defense. Pretty much the perfect 4th OF and can fill in for stretches as a starter at any of the 3 OF positions. He's going to get on base A LOT. Probably my favorite minor league player for his OBP skills in the same way that people love Astudillo for his hit skill.

Had a few hard seltzers and I made it as far as showing how good our top 3 pitchers have been in 90% of our games this season setting us up for success. I will follow up and dig in deeper but I hope this jumps in. We talk a lot about the #bomba squad. As much as the #bomba squad, the success of the Twins is due to the success of our SPs... at least at the top end. Berrios, Odorizzi, and Gibson for 90% of this season have been dominating and winning us games regardless of our offense and in spite of our non-Taylor Rogers bullpen. Can these guys keep it up? Is the current production sustainable? If these 3 can keep up their performance and put 9 out of 10 starts at this level what does that mean?

Kyle Gibson - Took away his first 3 starts 60.9 innings 53 hits 9 BB 19 ER 65 K 3.21 ERA 1.02 WHIP 1.33 BB/9 Jake Odorizzi - Took away his 0.2 inning start 69.1 innings 44 hits 11 ER 19 BB 77 K 1.43 ERA 0.91 whip 2.47 BB/9 10.02 K/9 Jose Berrios - Take away the LA game 84 IP 70 hits 14 BB 25 ER 81 K 2.67 ERA 1.00 Whip 1.5 BB/9 8.7 K/9 I wanted to show some credit to the real reason for the Twins success past the HRs. Take a look at these stats.

There are also tweets and quotes from the draft thread about him confirming his intent to want to play in the majors.

I think there is some reason to have concern that Lewis's ceiling may not be what it was thought to be mid-way through last season. However, there are lots of reasons to be patient as well. Let's see if he can make adjustments and where his slash line is in a couple months.

The thing is no one disagrees with you that they would ideally like to see Sano improve in the areas you list. If he can make himself a harder out through better pitch recognition he'll get on base even more and hit even more balls hard. The thing that people disagree with and push back on and get frustrated with is the idea that the current and past version of Sano is not a valuable player and should be potentially moved because of the issues that have been listed. Even with Sano's contact issues, he gets on base more, hits for more power, and drives in more runs than pretty much everyone on the roster. It's extremely disingenuous to say anything other than that. It is also fair not to like Sano because of his playstyle and the strikeouts that come with it (also the injuries). However, it's important to recognize that not liking Sano for his playstyle is an emotional reaction or a bias that is completely separate from whether or not that playstyle is valuable to a team--or at least valuable enough to make him one of the top 2/3/4 hitters on the Twins (with Rosario/Polanco/Cruz). If posters said that they recognize the assertion above, which objectively is true, while still suggesting that they are frustrated that Sano has not been able to overcome pitch recognition and contact issues preventing him from reaching elite territory...that would be different... Coming from that emotional reaction and suggesting that the Twins move on from Sano for objectively much worse options and not recognizing the assertion above is the frustrating part.

If we look at what Sano IS and not what he COULD be. He IS a 35+ HR 30+ 2B 100 RBI ~.335-340 OBP.810-820 OPS player per 162 games. Which means that even if he does not play 162 games, at a per game production level he produces at that level when healthy. All of those numbers would essentially rank 1st or 2nd on the Twins. That is what Sano IS. The strikeout numbers and issues do not PREVENT him from being that level of player above. The strikeout numbers prevent Sano from performing above that level, which is essentially the difference from a good player and an elite player. Again just to be clear, based on his career thus far...that is what Sano IS now. There is no debate, no argument, and no other opinion. If we're going to start a debate, we have to start from that as a foundation based on his first 2500-3000 plate appearances of production. Do we want to keep a player around who profiles as a .340 OBP - 30 2B - 35 HR - 100 RBI player with some potential upside for another gear? Basically the question is, do we want to keep around a player who gets on base more, hits for more power, and drives in more runs than just about any player on the Twins except a healthy Cruz and in some categories maybe Polanco (OBP) and Rosario (power numbers) albeit with injury concerns that do cause worry about his ability to ever string together a fully healthy season? In my opinion, despite the health concerns...the current career production per game numbers plus the potential for more is worth the injury concerns especially when you realize that he's probably (for the long-term) the Twins second most productive hitter on the roster behind Polanco. Although I do recognize that there is an argument for Rosario. Average matters much less than on base percentage. If a guy gets on base and hits for power that is literally the model and formula for value. The strikeouts only matter if they prevent Sano from getting on base and hitting for the power numbers. It hasn't, at least it hasn't prevented him from putting up better power numbers and getting on base more than any other Twins player other than Cruz for his career. (Some Twins are having career years that surpass that production this year) For example, Rosario does not have a single year in his career where he has gotten on base as much as Sano's career average. Neither does Kepler. I think Polanco has one year at Sano's career average before this season. Why do you all care about strikeouts when he hits for more power and gets on base more than guys with less strikeouts? Some of you would rather we put a guy in the lineup that will get on base less, drive in less runs, hit less extra base hits, and score less runs just to get more groundouts and popups instead of strikeouts...

Big fan of this pick as well. Massive power, maybe as much as any prospect in this draft. He may strike out a decent amount, but that's really only a problem if the approach isn't good enough to play. He walks a TON as well. To me that shows he will work deep into counts and will find himself in more advantageous situations. Plus the power skills play even with weaker contact skills if he can walk enough to still get on base at a high clip. OBP + Power is the tool I would always approach. To me that shows approach/plate discipline + ability to drive the ball and drive in runs. That's the formula.

Posted this in the draft thread, but thought I would also post here: Big fan of this pick. Disagree that the delivery is a negative unless there are injury concerns. I have yet to see an explanation or read about why there should be. Baseball America rated him as the best control in the country pre-draft. He repeats his mechanics and can control the ball. His delivery makes it hard to read over his hand and his over the top delivery creates a really nice downward plane and will lead to a lot of ground ball outs and the downward movement you see on his spike curve as well as some of the movement you see on his fastball. Sure, he’ll refine his delivery like any pitcher but I think the funky delivery is a plus until it’s proven not to be rather than the other way around. The only real argument I’ve seen for changing it is that it seems like something to do because it looks different than prototype, which isn’t actually a reason at all unless that difference in pitching motion is causing control issues through unrepeatablility or injury concerns. I think he’s going to be a starter of the good Odorizzi or Gibson version. Really excited. Here’s a good article I found with a nice profile: https://www.google.c...-matt-canterino A couple of quotes from that article: **Canterino also does the little things to help his cause, including having an above-average pickoff move. However, there’s still a concern that he may eventually be a reliever. Why should this be a concern, when he’s get the build, control, athleticism and repertoire to be successful as a starter? Rice does have a history of its pitchers breaking down physically at the professional level. More than that, however, it’s due to his unorthodox, high-effort delivery with a head jerk. It is that delivery, however, that just may give him the deception he needs at the professional level to help supplement good, albeit unsensational, stuff.** **One side note — in Baseball America’s preseason list of loudest tools, Canterino was listed as having the best control. Certainly after looking at his results over the past couple seasons, it’s difficult to refute that analysis.**

Big fan of this pick. Disagree that the delivery is a negative unless there are injury concerns. I have yet to see an explanation or read about why there should be. Baseball America rated him as the best control in the country pre-draft. He repeats his mechanics and can control the ball. His delivery makes it hard to read over his hand and his over the top delivery creates a really nice downward plane and will lead to a lot of ground ball outs and the downward movement you see on his spike curve as well as some of the movement you see on his fastball. Sure, he’ll refine his delivery like any pitcher but I think the funky delivery is a plus until it’s proven not to be rather than the other way around. The only real argument I’ve seen for changing it is that it seems like something to do because it looks different than prototype, which isn’t actually a reason at all unless that difference in pitching motion is causing control issues through unrepeatablility or injury concerns. I think he’s going to be a starter of the good Odorizzi or Gibson version. Really excited. Here’s a good article I found with a nice profile: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.southsidesox.com/platform/amp/2019/5/7/18236648/matt-canterino-draft-prospects-you-should-know-matt-canterino A couple of quotes from that article: **Canterino also does the little things to help his cause, including having an above-average pickoff move. However, there’s still a concern that he may eventually be a reliever. Why should this be a concern, when he’s get the build, control, athleticism and repertoire to be successful as a starter? Rice does have a history of its pitchers breaking down physically at the professional level. More than that, however, it’s due to his unorthodox, high-effort delivery with a head jerk. It is that delivery, however, that just may give him the deception he needs at the professional level to help supplement good, albeit unsensational, stuff.** **One side note — in Baseball America’s preseason list of loudest tools, Canterino was listed as having the best control. Certainly after looking at his results over the past couple seasons, it’s difficult to refute that analysis.**

Larnach is impressing thus far in his major league career. I hope the Twins are aggressive with him. He should be up in AA by all star break if he continues to produce.

It's a really good ~40 min listen. I think it's a fair and accurate summary and portrays the team in a very positive light in all aspects--our front office, our coaching staff, our players, and our philosophy. I'd recap further, but it's worth the listen. Don't skim this one.

They are pretty much polar opposites in everything from pitching style to build. I may be missing sarcasm because there probably couldn't be two pitchers more different. The only thing they have some similarity in is maybe the pitching motion and the way that motion kind of hides the ball and slings around their body before reaching their release point causing hitters to struggle to time pitches well.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/brad-johnsons-10-bold-predictions-for-2019/ Came across this article today of this fangraphs writer predicting Martin Perez to be the Twins best SP this season (before the season began). After reading that prediction and some others (Renfroe 40 HR) that were seemingly crazy bold but are panning out.... we have to ask ourselves... is this guy a savant? What are his other predictions for future breakouts? I want this guy's crystal ball.

Isn't it also a fallacy to assume that he's producing because he's in the 9th spot in the order? If so, why was he not producing in the past at that spot in order? If you agree that that argument doesn't hold water, that means it's other changes he has made that are causing the positive performance. If it's other changes that have led to more positive performance, those other changes hold true irrespective of spot in the order. His new swing is not effective or not effective because he's 9th or 8th or any spot in the order. His new swing is working because he made changes that are leading to him being able to be more successful. If you move Buxton up and all of a sudden his mechanics change and the leg kick is back and the hand placement changes revert... his lack of success won't be due to a spot in the order change... it will be due to a reversion of mechanics. Now, I'm not calling for the Twins to move Buxton up yet and do actually agree that they should keep him in the 9 spot simply from the standpoint of Buxton being on base for the top of the order and a lineup construction that puts a lot of punch into the top couple of spots.... If anything...with Sano healthy I would double down on the power at the top of the order strategy given Buxton's success. Put Polanco/Cruz/Sano/Rosario/Kepler/Cron behind Buxton and in every other situation except the first it's basically Buxton (1), Polanco (2) followed up by the big boys with protection behind Sano to prevent pitchers from throwing junk his way.

Perks of quoting from memory. Point being the power has still played. His OBP was in the low to mid .340s before last season. Tough to say an injury plagued half season sandwiched with a lot of time playing obviously injured is truly indicative of a previous sample of 1300 plate appearances. Further, he's consistently had an OBP roughly 90 points higher than his average over his career and through those 1300 plate appearances he has a BABIP of ~.360. His BABIP last season was ~.280. Normalize the BABIP to his career norm, the average and BABIP normalizes to roughly the career norm as well and gets him into the .340-.350 OBP range. The strikeouts are noise and not liking the strikeouts are purely a style of play preference. You missed the point with the almost HR comment. The point was the exit velocity. Of course, he's a flyball hitter and he's going to hit a lot of fly ball outs when he does put it into play. The important takeaway is that when he does put the ball in play he hits it hard. Some of those will be flyouts...a lot of them will be XBH's. The 162 game pace is not a if he can do it. That is literally his 162 game pace for his career including his bad season last season, although I did touch up his OBP from .335 to .340-.350 to reflect what I consider a half season not truly reflective of what Miguel Sano normalizes at given his career numbers and the injuries he was facing. The concerns you note are what prevents Sano's per game pace from being even better than that...not what prevents Sano's per game production from being at that level. Further, even at a .335 OBP, he still has a higher career OBP than anyone on the team not named Cruz and Polanco. Polanco's career high OBP is .345. Sano has had seasons of .352 and .380 OBPs. Cron, Rosario, Kepler have never even hit .330 OBP which is Sano's career average. Schoop has done it once and had plenty of seasons below .300 OBP. So basically, Sano gets on base as much as anyone not named Cruz and hits for more power than anyone not named Cruz, drives in more runs per game than anyone not named Cruz, and as many runs per game as essentially anyone on the Twins. That is what his production is now with all of the flaws in his game. That is not the level his flaws prevent him for reaching. That is not an opinion.

The first AB was bad...but hitters are hitting ~.100 against Pena curveballs on the year and he was not the only one to take bad swings on that pitch. In his next 2 ABs he just got under balls that otherwise would have been HRs and had exit velocity's of 94 MPH and 100 MPH. He also fouled another 100+ MPH exit velocity rope down the line that would have been a double if fair. Last AB he hit a HR. He's gonna miss some pitches and strike out a lot, but he will also get on base as much as any other Twins hitter and approach a 30 2B / 35-40 HR / 100 RBI .340-.350 OBP pace per 162 games (those are his career averages per 162 games). His K rate is only an issue if it prevents him from getting 30 2B / 35-40 HR /100ish RBI and a .340ish OBP per 162g. He hasn't had a spring training and is going to have to get his timing up to speed. Sano's K issues will be even more prominent during that period of time before ticking down to ~30%. Be patient. Again, a healthy Sano will hit 30 2B / 35-40 HR / 100+ RBI with a .340+ OBP. Those numbers would all rank top 2-3 on the team. Even though he strikes out, he gets on base as much or more than most other Twins hitters.

Pena's curveball looks TOUGH tonight. Big time downward break with late biting action.

Sano did not have a spring training and had limited ABs in the minors before getting called up. Be patient. He will always strike out and look bad at times. He only has to hit enough to make the power play and he will. He will chase balls, but he will also walk a decent amount. Close your eyes with Sano and check back in a month.

I’m fine with him staying where he is for a few more weeks to continue to allow him to build moment in a low stress way. I do like playing around with some ideas that I think we could see as the season goes on if Buxton can continue to hit .265+ or so. - Leadoff against LHPs. Baldelli has explored moving Kepler down against LHPs. Could be a nice strategy to give Buxton a feel for the leadoff spot and see how he handles it. -#7? when the roster is healthy, against RHPs Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario, Cruz, Cron, Buxton, Garver, Schoop That would be interesting. Buxton, Polanco, Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Cron, Garver, Schoop looks DEEP.