twins1095

Do we see the Twins trying to get to 4 starters and then playing the opener/long-man game with the 5th starter? I think that's one way to make this process a little bit easier. I think after next season (if not sooner) you start to be in a position for some of that starting depth Graterol/Balazovic/Colina/Duran/Ober/Alcala/etc to hopefully be ready to push for spots. I would rather do the opener/long-man thing with whomever and try to get through it that way than to overpay someone or sign someone mediocre long-term

Less minor-league baseball teams could mean more Independent Ball teams such as the Saint Paul Saints (where you can very much get that experience you are talking about) and better compensated and situated minor league baseball players who are in systems.

Thank you for enlightening me.

I did not know about the origin, but I was obviously not trying to use it in a derogatory way other than to say the Twins got the bad end of a deal (it appears) because they got damaged gods. I deleted my post to not have others associate me with the word choice. I apologize to any who may have been offended by that word choice.

I guess your presumption is that Spielman/Fletcher/Zimmer or whomever couldn't lead a championship run given more time to do so--which is where we would disagree. I trust relatively sound-decision making, planning, and identifying talent which I believe both Fletcher and Spielman have/had. Fletcher, for example, did a really solid job in taking an awful team and trying to build it into a Stanley Cup team. They fell just short. Partly because of running into a dynasty like Chicago, partly because they never hit on a truly elite Center/Forward (hard to do so drafting late so often as well), and partly because they were a team that relied on an elite 2nd/3rd/4th line because of their lack of high-end talent and that depth was taken from them by the expansion draft. Regardless, they had a year where they were arguably the best team in the league. They legitimately had cup chances and generally made the right moves or the right types of moves for the situations they were in and the information they had at the time (which did not always work out). I think given a few opportunities to build a team, Fletcher could have hit and taken the Wild to a Cup. I understand that's not the way the GM position works or fans analyze the position. I think for Spielman it's much the same way. I really don't think you can get better than Spielman within reason. Spielman has put together multiple teams that if you run a simulation 100 times would probably have won in a good percentage of those times (09 and 17), that's really all you can ask for from a GM. The rest is luck, bounces, moments, and situations that are really down to a coin flip and outside the control of a GM. Just because they HAVE NOT won does mean they COULD NOT have won. The 09 Vikings could easily have won the Superbowl, but they didn't and they didn't not win because of their GM. I think the Vikings could have won the superbowl in 09 and then you'd think very differently about Spielmen even though nothing would really be different.

I think a good case study that is local to Minnesota fans is Chuck Fletcher. A lot of folks were calling for Fletcher's head despite taking a team with almost no talent in the minors or on the NHL team and create a consistent contender with a strong minor league pipeline as well. He did have misses, but generally his logic was sound and made sense. The Wild were an expansion draft away from really sustaining success (losing Haula/Tuch/Scandella essentially to keep others). Bottom line despite some misses and bad trades and moves that one could question, Fletcher's overall body of work was pretty successful. A lot of folks near the end of that tenure wanted something better as they grew used to and expected success. What did the Wild do? They hired Paul Fenton. Who, as we know was much much worse. It can get A LOT worse than Spielman. A LOT WORSE. Be careful what you wish for.

I really like the way our bullpen has been developing between Rogers/Romo/Dyson/Duffey/May. I think that group can definitely lock down the 7th-9th on a consistent basis. I really like the idea of bringing up Graterol/Alcala/Colina in September and potentially adding 1-2 of them to the playoff roster. While all will likely be raw and hard to trust in high-leverage situations, I really like the idea of pitchers with that kind of stuff taking the 5th-6th innings. From there we can tell our non-Berrios SPs...don't worry, we just need you to get through 4-5 innings with 1-2 runs minimum. The pen has got it from there.

Jake Cave has an .805 career OPS in 141 MLB games.

Bonus Content - Brent Rooker I did not include Rooker in the list above because I think he's a bit of a wildcard in terms of his future with the organization. Due to defensive limitations, I believe that Rooker is a player that needs to have an every day or regular spot in the lineup to be successful. I'm not sure if the Twins have that spot. I'm not sure that the Twins would be willing to give Rooker the starting 1B job next season because due to injuries and some struggles making contact there are question marks about his ability to play at the major league level. Rooker is 24 and next season timing-wise seems to make sense for a shot at major league playing time. Could the Twins look to potentially give Rooker a shot with the fall back option being Sano at 1st, Marwin at 3rd, and some combo of Rooker/Cave/Astudillo off the bench as the backup corner OF and 1B? I think if Rooker does succeed as an MLB player, the key factor in that success or lack of success will be if the improvements he made in terms of eye at the plate this season are real. He's always walked an above average amount (career minor league BB% over 10%), but he seemingly made meaninful improvements during the 65 games he has played at AAA this season to 12.8%. If Rooker can translate an 11-12 BB% to the major leagues, I think he's almost definitely at least an average MLB player. For all of the issues with Rooker in terms of making consistent contact, that have been well talked about, he has always been able to get on base a lot even when he's going through stretches of a lot of strikeouts and not a lot of contact. Rooker has actually produced at a high-level offensively pretty consistently as well at every level with wRC+'s of 145, 166, 124, and 138 as well as wOBA's of .413, .415, .356. and .400. The power is very real as well. In 235 games outside of rookie ball Rooker has the following aggregate stats and slash line: .265 -.360 -.853136 runs - 54 2Bs - 4 3B - 47 HRs - 161 RBIsProjecting those numbers per 162 games, Rooker's projections look as follows: .265 - .360 - .85594 runs - 38 2Bs - 2 3Bs - 32 HRs - 111 RBIsIn 195 games at AA and AAA, Rooker has: .263 - .356 - .84348 2Bs - 4 3Bs - 36 HRs - 126 RBIsProjecting those numbers per 162 games you get the following: .263 - .356 - .84395 runs - 40 2Bs - 3 3Bs - 30 HRs - 105 RBIsRooker was on fire at AAA before his injury and came all the way back from an extremely slow start. His slash line and per 162 projected numbers at AAA are: .281 - .398 - .933 with a wOBA of .400, wRC+ of 138, BB% of 12.8% and K% of 34.7% 102 runs - 40 2B - 35 HRs - 117 RBIs His AAA numbers were buoyed by some luck including a .417 BABIP--but Rooker hits the ball extremely hard a lot. He should always have a high BABIP somewhere in the mid .300s. Typing out all of those numbers, he's actually been very consistent across his minor league career with some change due to BABIP differences largely. Rooker is another guy that I think will be helped greatly by the new MLB ball. ___________________________________________________________________________________ I think Rooker is going to be able to hit for power and get on base at an above average level in the majors. He's also streaky and going to have a lot of seemingly bad looking whiffs and empty at bats for stretches. Can the Twins afford to have both him and Sano in their lineup?

I am really excited by the performances of a few of the Twins top minor league players/hitters this season, especially with the current group at AA. I was curious to figure out myself exactly how Twins fans should be thinking about the following players and projecting them onto the big league roster in a few years--so I decided to write about it. In additional posts, I may do more players because I enjoy writing these--but to start I want to highlight 3 players I think are on a strong trajectory to be above average or better contributors in the MLB shortly. I want to call out players that are producing strongly now and also look to have high MLB ceilings and recognize their production (as opposed to the ceiling/potential of Lewis/Javier/Cavaco type players). Alex Kirilloff Kirilloff's season slash line is as follows: 284/.340/.759Among Southern AA hitters that slash line ranks as follows: 15th in OPS and 8th in AVG It's possible that there's some degree of less talent than some other minor leagues, but it seems that the Eastern league pretty heavily favors pitching. Among qualifying players, there are only 9 players with an OPS over .800 in the league (there are 10 total teams). I think our hitters AA numbers have to be put in perspective a little bit understanding it's a tougher league--although elite hitting prospects should be able to some degree hit anywhere. With the wrist/hand injury he is/was coming back from, it's not surprising that the power and overall numbers are a little bit lower, I think the important thing is that he's trending upwards and he definitely is which has been noted here in a few posts. Again you would have expected an adjustment period, starting May 17th (75 out of 89 games), Kirilloff's slash line is: .300/.351/.802That slash line among AA hitters in the Southern league would rank the following: t4th in AVG (essentially tied for 2nd there are two guys at .301 and .302), 9th in OBP, and 10th in OPS. His .451 slugging percentage over that time would actually be 9th as well. His aggregate production numbers are not as alarming as I thought either. During this stretch starting on May 17th, his per 162 game aggregate production translates to the following: 85 runs - 35 2Bs - 3 3Bs - 20 HRs - 75 RBIs w/ a 6.3 BB% and 18.9 K%. I think it's encouraging that coming of the wrist injury and playing in a league where offensive numbers are suppressed across the board, he's actually still putting up solid numbers. The hit tool is definitively real and I don't think we have to worry about maybe wanting to manage our expectations with him. Trevor Larnach Larnach, in my opinion, has been arguably the most impressive of the Twins higher tier hitting prospects this season (other than Arraez). Larnach has been extremely good from day 1 in the minor leagues at every level he's been at. Some of that should have been expected as he is an older prospect to some degree (22 years old - 1 year older than Kirilloff). I think Kirilloff might have a better pure hit tool, but Larnach has a much more advanced approach and eye at the plate. Kirilloff may have some adjustment to make as he gets into AAA and eventually the MLB with his approach--although his hit tool is so good he may not. Larnach on the other hand, just screams big league hitter with his 11-12% walk rate at multiple different levels (similar to Sano this season). Larnach has continued his impressive numbers since his call-up to AA with a slash line of the following over his first 36 AA games (148 plate appearances): .273/.362/.802 with an wRC+ of 136 and wOBP of .370In the Southern AA league, that slash line ranks among qualifying players: 9th in OBP and 9th in OPSLarnach's aggregrate numbers per 162 games at AA are as follows: 97 runs - 15 2Bs - 27 HRs - 88 RBIs - 11.5% BB% - 29.5% K%Including Larnach's time at AAA his slash line and aggregate numbers per 162 games would be the following: .303/.376/.828/10.2% BB% - 23.2% K%73 runs - 40 2Bs - 2 3Bs - 16 HRs - 85 RBIs -At AA, he's actually produced very similarly to Kirilloff during Kirilloff's post-May 17th stretch. They have different styles, but their OPS's are nearly identical. The only cause for concern that I do have is that Larnach's strikeout rate has jumped up to nearly 30% after posting 16.5% and 20.5% strikeout rates at A and A+. I think there is some evidence that Larnach is going through an adjustment period facing higher level pitching, which makes his numbers as is even more impressive. I expect that number to fall closer to 20%. I think Larnach has very firmly planted himself in the conversation with Kirilloff and Lewis in terms of hitting prospect status. I believe that the Twins have a big 3 instead of just Lewis/Kirilloff. Further, I would go as far to say that I think that I could be convinced to move Larnach ahead of Lewis in terms of a ranking. Ryan Jeffers Jeffers is the other pleasant surprise for me. It's clear he can really hit. I can't speak to where his receiving, game-calling, blocking, etc is at--but from interviews I've read and seen he's going to become at least solid at it. He is willing to work on it and is analytically driven. Most of what he needs on that end can be gained by practice, repetition, and experience. We have seen with Garver that certain aspects, such as framing and receiving can definitely be taught. As a hitter, Jeffers has an above average approach evidenced by a minor league career walk rate of close to 10% and a strikeout rate in the high teens/early twenties. Jeffers struggled a little bit at A+ to start the year, but still had a wRC+ of 120 and a wOBP of .341. He definitely started slow, but was a tad unlucky. Further, the A+ league he played is also one that is known to be extremely pitcher friendly--which is why despite a mediocre slash line his wRC+ is so far above average. Jeffers, similar to Larnach, has now played 18 games at AA and has a slash line of the following: .288 AVG - .373 OBP - .919 OPS - 11.3 BB% - 21.3 K% - wOBP .419 - wRC+ 170In a league that's tough for offense, Jeffers is absolutely mashing the ball. This sample size is especially too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but those numbers would rank the following among all Southeastern AA league hitters: t5th in OBP, 1st in OPS, 1st in SLG%Again, the sample size is WAY too small, but I'll do a per 162 game projection for fun. Jeffers aggregate numbers per 162 games are the following: 99 runs - 45 2Bs - 36 HRs - 90 RBIsJeffers will almost certainly regress from his current production levels, but he's had a lot of success across 3 different minor league levels as well as rookie ball. The Twins coaches also think extremely highly of his plate approach as well as his power and run-creation abilities--he hits 4th for a Pensacola lineup that's loaded with top Twins hitting talent. From a glance at a few box scores, the lineup that the Twins have been sending out is Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, Blankenhorn. That may be partially due to Blankenhorn's struggles over the last month and Jeffers hot streak--but it still speaks volumes to his talent. Excluding Jeffers rookie ball stats, his current minor league career slash line (135 games) is as follows: .270 - .346 - .781 - 9 BB% - 18.7 K%65 runs - 26 2Bs - 18 HRs - 67 RBIsPer 162 games his aggregate numbers would project at: 79 runs - 32 2B - 22 HRs - 81 RBIs Jeffers minor league offensive numbers thus far compare pretty similarly with Garver's minor league numbers. His slash line does not immediately wow you, but that belies how good he's been with wRC+'s of 130, 120, and 170 at A, A+, and AA respectively. Further, he's played in very pitching friendly leagues which also hides some of his offensive production. At 22 as a catcher and already in AA, Jeffers just needs as much playing time as possible to get more experience behind the plate and continue to refine his approach as a hitter. With the major league ball, I think Jeffers should project to be able to hit 30+ 2Bs, 20+ HRs, and an OBP of .340ish or potentially even a tad higher than that. The ultimate question on Jeffers ceiling will revolve around his ability to catch behind the plate. There is not a lot of information out there now on how far along Jeffers is as in that facet of his development. Coming into the pros, there were questions on if he could stay at the position--those seem to have been answered. If he can make a Garver type transition to average or above average the Twins will be in very good shape at the catching position. Assuming that Garver's improvement at the plate is for real and he continues to show his eye at the plate along with 25-30 homers per 162 games... Jeffers should allow Garver to assume a lesser catching role and more 1B/DH as he gets into his 30s. To me, because of a combination of positional value and track record of production I think Jeffers is a guy that's going to shoot up the Twins prospect lists after the season ends. In my opinion there is a strong argument that Jeffers is the Twins 6th best minor league prospect behind Kirilloff/Larnach/Lewis/Graterol/Balazovic. He's certainly in the Twins top 10, it's hard to rank between pitchers and hitters. I think Duran/Colina have an argument for the 6th and 7th spots as well because of their high-end stuff. In my opinion, there is a strong argument that Jeffers should be thought of as the Twins 4th best hitting prospect behind the big 3. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Thanks for reading! Let me know your thoughts!

I think per 162 game pace stats are useful, but you definitely need to understand that it’s just a tool to measure and standardize production. It’s similar to the per 100 possession stats people use for some analysis in basketballs. It’s not an accurate reflection of a true season or what will happen going forward. I would say it’s somewhat of an accurate measure of what HAS happened. And again, you definitely have to be cognizant of the limitations. If we tracked stats per game in baseball similar to basketball, we would say Sano hits .33 HRs a game which is top 10 in the league (hypothetical not sure what the actual numbers are) and be super excited that when Sano is on the field he’s near the top echelon of power hitters. However, in baseball...we look at aggregate numbers and are used to thinking about hitting tiers in terms of knowing how many aggregate home runs makes you an elite power hitter. I think the per 162 games stat allows you to basically look at per game stats in the aggregate format we are used to understanding baseball numbers in. The idea is not to say that Sano, or other players, will produce at that level going forward (although he might). The idea is to say this is how a player has played thus far and how that production thus far looks in an aggregate form. I can start posting 150 game samples too!

Davis was having a fantastic season for the Twins before being traded for Dyson. I wanted to take a look to see how his numbers looked for the Giants and was blown away. I wouldn't be surprised to see him up with the Giants soon. There's also a ton of buzz being generated about him by national some national outlets, funny to see what blowing up at AAA for a more major market does . Jaylin Davis's numbers in 18 games for the Giants at AAA: .403/.494/.940 (that's slugging % not OPS!)/1.434 OPS 18 runs - 6 2Bs - 10 HRs - 23 RBIs He's now got 57 runs - 17 2Bs - 1 3B - 25 HRs - 65 RBIs with a .353/.433/,788/1.211 slash line in 59 AAA games. That's a per 162 game pace of: 157 runs - 47 2Bs - 3 3Bs - 68 HRs - 178 RBIs with a .353/.433/1.211 slash line.

I think part of it is also him being 6'9. He's gotta have really long arms and a release point closer to home plate than most making his MPH play up. Also again being 6'9 he has to have a big time downward plane on his pitches.

He’s actually at .303/.390/1.057 with 22 2b and 33 HRs in 89 games/333 ABs. Ortiz in his age 39/40 seasons was at 146/151 games and 528/537 ABs respectively. Now with that being said, health is a skill especially at older ages. To put in perspective Cruz’s numbers with that many ABs are as follows: .303/.390/1.057 99 runs -35 2B - 52 HRs - 127 RBI Your point does stand. Very similar. Cruz has actually been better, especially during his age 39 season. I hope he makes a similar age 40 jump

I think his last 2 HRs have been as a righty. Very good to see!

Wholeheartedly agree. As someone who ultimately shares your perspective, I have to add (because in Sano's case this is what I was saying when he was struggling) I think Rosario's mean is something slightly higher (in terms of OBP/etc) than he has been for the last streak or so (walked once in like a month). In Rosario's case even with that little bit of positive regression, he's still worse than a lot of our other "core" regulars at getting on base.

This is perfect and super illuminating! For example, Dyson has the same ERA as Trevor May but 30 shutdowns and 6 meltdowns versus May with 15 shut downs and 9 melt downs. When Dyson melts downs he really melts down. (His numbers with the Giants were wild 27 shut downs to 3 meltdowns. Comparatively, Rogers is at 27 and 6 for the whole year)

I like what you’re doing. I’m interested in thinking about different ways to track, chart, and think about relief pitchers. Sam Dyson, Sergio Romo, and Trevor May all have an ERA of between 3.40-3.42, but have seemingly had very different seasons. That is, due to relievers only pitching a few innings a season, and a few bad outings really skewing aggregate numbers... ERA is probably not the best way to think about how successful a reliever is. There definitely is a leverage component you’d have to build out and I think you’ve started it, but I was thinking about trying to track relievers in 2 ways: 1) Create a blow-up metric. My first thought was any outing where a reliever gives up 2 or more runs is a “blow-up”. Blow-ups are really bad for relievers and will more often not lead directly or almost directly to a loss. I don’t think the numbers in a blow-up matter as much as HOW OFTEN a blow-up happens (this especially rings true for high-leverage relievers who normally pitch late in the game and with small leads). A successful reliever will be one who blows up the most infrequently i.e. if Dyson blows up 15% of the time and Romo blows up 10% of the time that means Dyson will lose you a game 3 out of every 20 outings versus 2 for Romo (hypothetical). From there, after isolating the blow-up sample I’d like to take a look at reliever ERA/WHIP/K/BB/etc numbers from their non-blow-up sample. Basically, who is the best outside of the odd outing where they blow-up? This would show you the true talent of a reliever over the majority of their games. Relievers who’s majority of good or non-blow up games are a really high percentage with better ERA/WHIP/etc numbers would be considered the best. My hypothesis is that you’d see that most relievers have pretty good numbers but the key would be how reliable are they to not blow up? I think you’d see a difference between elite relievers and the Trevor May’s of the world in terms of blow up percentage. Thus, a Trevor May is harder to trust and should be a 6th/7th inning guy versus an 8th/9th inning guy. Might put something together with Twins relievers if I get some free time.

My reaction as well. Sano has made changes to his swing that allow him to get to balls in basically *most* (all?) areas of the zone. In addition, these swing changes have given him the confidence to be able to get to fast balls without cheating meaning he can also sit back and wait on breaking stuff in the zone. Further, because he doesn't have to cheat and start his swing so early he's able to wait longer on pitches and not chase breaking stuff that starts in the zone and goes out of the zone. Sano has been among the best at the league at not chasing pitches out of the zone and hitting the ball hard in the zone when it's there. He still does get a lot of strikeouts, but mostly because he's consistently working so deep into counts to wait for good pitches to hit. It's a formula I like because it leads to getting on base a bunch and hitting a bunch of balls hard. Similar to his rookie season, when he's on like this, I've never seen a hitter go 3-2 in counts more consistently (lol). But to go back on topic, I think it's a formula that's foundational in terms of being a successful approach that should allow him to get on base at a high rate and hit a lot of balls hard. I think his success is also important because he knows the things to do to shorten his swing if he starts struggling. I think the biggest threat to his approach is health. If Sano gets injured he may start, maybe by necessity, cheating or doing things that create bad habits. He's a really tough hitter to get out right now. You essentially have to hope that you can get to 2-2 or 3-2 and throw something on the black of the plate because Sano shows a willingness to take pitches on or just off the edge of the plate or hope that a fielder catches a 95+ MPH exit velocity rocket off his bat.

Per 162 game pace stats: Sano - .346 OBP - .910 OPS 119 runs - 33 2B - 2 3B - 50 HR - 108 RBI Kepler .336 OBP - .865 OPS 117 runs - 37 2B - 46 HRs - 113 RBIs Polanco .358 OBP - .845 OPS 104 runs - 44 2B - 8 3B - 23 HRs - 85 RBIs Rosario .304 OBP - .821 OPS 114 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 42 HRs - 127 RBIs Arraez .412 OBP - .860 OPS 98 runs - 28 2Bs - 3 3Bs - 8 HRs - 56 RBIs

Idk if it's movement but this catcher is not helping his pitcher with framing.

Why is Kepler out?

Second one was more on Cron then Arraez IMO. Either way, bad defense leading to extra outs.

Yes - if not for all of the extra outs the Rangers have given us Lynn would be well on his way to 5-6 innings and looking like he'd shut us out.

Is this gun hot? Lynn was hitting 97 MPH a few times and Perez just did too.