Road trip

Plan for the future. Don't live in the past. As much as we want a return of 2023 Pablo/Twins, nobody has a time travel machine. The odds of Pablo returning to his prior form are poor. He's suffered a serious injury, and the track record for pitchers undergoing a 2nd UCL is not good. This is especially true of starters over age 30. It was a devastating event for the franchise. If the Twins want to contend again someday they have to face reality and think with their heads, not their hearts.

Martin is really the only player of this list that I want to see on the roster. He might still have some upside, but its almost now or never for him. The other bench options listed in the article are AAAA filler, and that unfortunately may include Clemens. By 2029 we will struggle to remember that any of them once wore a Twins uniform.

It seems likely. Pulled his hamstring severely in April and was on the IL for the next six weeks. Hamstring injuries can be notoriously slow to fully heal for some athletes. His loss of speed may be permanent, or perhaps a winter off will result in slightly better sprint speed this year. We can only hope, because a faster Wallner would be somewhat less of a liability in the field.

A totally valid concern. Unfortunately, the numbers for Abel aren't all that much better, although he ramped up a little last year. 108, 113, 108, and 137 innings pitched. Similar numbers for other young starters like Zebby. For better or worse (I have no idea) this seems to be how young starters are being developed pretty much everywhere. It isn't just a Twins thing. Ideally, by current (low) standards you'd like to have starters that can get to the 150-160 inning pitched range, but it seems very few pitchers throw that many as they advance through the minors. Thus, you don't really find out much about endurance for young pitchers until they get to the majors. I certainly hope this low bar can be cleared by some of the Twins young starters, be it Abel or someone else.

I hate the City Connect uniforms less as time has passed...kind of like I hate the Yankees less as time has passed since their last World Series title. Still hate them, just with a little less passion. They remain an easy last place for me. I'm totally with the Great Hambino on the red uniforms from a decade ago. Bring 'em back.

Agree, sort of, for recent history because the Dodgers have been buying titles of late.. they've developed very few members of their core. But you don't have to go back all that far to see development success stories. The 2014 Giants, 2015 Royals, 2016 Cubs, and 2017 Astros all won titles with cores that were largely developed internally. That was a golden age for developing your own players. Even the 2019 Nationals were substantially home grown in the lineup plus Strassburg. Sure, they all brought in a player or three from outside the organization, but their stars were developed. Is that era gone? Maybe. I hope that development can win a title again, because the Twins ownership is never going to spend like the Dodgers and other big money franchises. Will they sign an injured Pablo to an extension? Who knows. My heart wouldn't complain, but my head would.

Look, I get that Pablo is loved, and we want him to remain a Twin, but those advocating signing him to another contract now should study the results for 2nd UCL surgeries. Add in the fact that Pablo is older than average for this procedure, and the odds of him returning to prior form are very bad. See https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39741491/ TLDR result: MLB pitchers provided only half of their value to teams at 3 years postoperatively. Longer version: At 3 seasons postoperatively, pitchers returned to performance in pitch count (55%), expected fielding independent pitching (68%), fWAR (48%), velocity (76%), fastball velocity (80%), horizontal movement (81%), vertical movement (66%), Stuff+ (78%), Location+ (89%), and Pitching+ (78%) at varying degrees. Only 3.9%, 11.8%, and 28.1% of pitchers returned to full performance by 1, 2, and 3 seasons postoperatively, respectively. Only an additional 19.3% of pitchers met 4 out of 5 full performance criteria. Binary logistic regression identified starting pitchers and preoperative faster velocity and older age as strong negative predictors of return to full performance.

Worst offseason ever. There are those on here who have memories much longer than mine, but even in the late 70's when Griffith lost or traded just about every player with a pulse, well at least they tempted fans to dream about a future outfield of Bombo Rivera, Willie Norwood, and Hosken Powell. Ah, the Good Ole Days! Maybe we were just more gullible then... Griffith at least had the excuse of owning in an era with no revenue sharing, no significant TV money, and no other source of income, unlike our current batch of public welfare Banksters.

Pecota projection for the Twins? Yeah somewhere in the 70-79 win range is reasonable. Pecota is higher than my guess, but it's a reasonable projection. I must be missing something on the Pecota projection for Detroit. This is a team that won 87 games last year, returns nearly everyone of importance, and nearly their entire core from last year is under age 30. Everyday players like Greene, Keith, Dingler, and Torkelson should get better as they are all under their age 27 season. They added Valdez and Kenley Janssen. Unless last year Detroit was just unreasonably lucky, I can't fathom why Pecota projects they should be dramatically worse this year.

This may be a case of "misinformation is everywhere". There are different numbers in different places. If you look at Spotrac salary data, which is used to compute MLB Luxury tax numbers, you get a different picture of the Twins payroll. It includes "dead money" for players that are gone but on payroll, not just the active roster: 2020: 168 million 2021: 145 million 2022: 173 million 2023: 177 million 2024: 160 million 2025: 141 million 2026 (projected): 110 million In that time, the Twins went from being consistently middle of the pack in MLB salaries to 23rd in 2025. 2026 is too early to project, but it likely won't be much higher in the rankings. I was also ready for Falvey to move on, for many of the reasons listed above, but the idea that the Pohlads didn't change spending habits seems suspect.

I know we all love Pablo, and I certainly hope he can stay healthy and anchor the staff, but since the trade for Arraez: Pablo: 8.1 BWAR Luis: 6.8 BWAR It's not the slam dunk thus far that many want to portray. Luis may have declined, but Pablo has his own injury history. I think/hope Pablo will probably be the better player moving forward, but their production thus far has been closer than most seem to think.

A few. Danny Santana comes to mind. Different skill set but from a very good first year to completely unplayable by year two. He never really recovered. I still wish Julien the best in his new spot. DJL beat me by 2 minutes :)

I'll agree with the rotation, if the top guys stay healthy (coin-flip). But they ranked 23rd in MLB in runs scored last year. 23rd. I think we could make a case that the offense could be worse this year unless some of the current minor leaguers make a sudden and unexpected impact. Bader's unexpected production is gone and not really replaced. Same with Willi Castro. Jeffers is potentially on the trade block. It could get really ugly if Buxton reverts to his career average of ~340 PA's instead of last year's 540. I'm good with the Rogers signing, but it looks like a 70 win team to me. Hope I'm totally wrong on that...

To be fair, the best year of his career isn't ancient history... it was 2023 with the Marlins where he put up .354/.393/.469 - even managed 10 HR's. 4.6 bWAR for folks that want to boil it down to one simple number. I don't advocate for the Twins signing him as he's not a great fit for a rebuild or the current state of their roster. They've already collected a more than sufficient number of left handed "should be a DH" candidates. However he's the kind of player that some wealthy and contending franchise will sign to a one or two year contract just in case he can be returned to prior form.

I blame Petco. I'm only half joking. This is what happened to Arraez when he was traded to the Padres in 2024: Home or Away Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ Home 77 74 337 317 37 85 11 1 2 22 5 0 13 14 .268 .307 .328 .636 104 12 5 2 0 2 1 .276 72 79 Away 73 72 335 320 46 115 21 2 2 24 4 3 11 15 .359 .385 .456 .841 146 6 3 0 1 1 1 .372 128 140 As recently as 2024 Arraez was great on the road, but unplayable at home. That'll mess with a guy's head. Hence, the change in approach, and by 2025 he wasn't hitting very well anywhere. He will be somewhere else in 2026. He's a good bounce-back candidate if he's healthy. I'll be rooting for him, even if he never plays for the Twins again.

Thanks for the information... and that sounds bad. It also makes me wonder why apparently both Bell and Twins management felt they were a good match. Is there any MLB ballpark that is colder than Target Field in April?

Well, yeah, even without the dearth of free agent outfielders, Buxton's trade value will likely never be higher. He'll be 32, and finally stayed healthy for a full year last year. A large part of his value is his elite speed, but this can only decline with increased age. It is almost inevitable that Buxton would bring back a little less in 2027, less still in 2028, etc. He is a depreciating asset. It doesn't mean the Twins *should* trade him. From a marketing perspective Buxton is one of the very few reasons a casual fan might buy a ticket to a Twins game. By opening day he may be their only veteran bat, depending on how you define that. Maybe none of that matters though... it's gonna be a rebuilding year(s).

I read this and I thought...Hm, is that first sentence correct? I had to look. The most recent data I could easily and quickly find was from 2020, from https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-endangered-species-lefty-hitter-lefty-thrower. In that season: 40% of MLB plate appearances were from lefty hitters Only 11.6% of non-pitchers in MLB threw left-handed. Thus, actually, most left handed hitters at the MLB level throw right handed. The split in 2020 was approximately 33% L-L to 67% L-R. The article goes on to explain that right handed throwers have become increasingly prevalent because short benches have led to an increase in the desirability of positional flexibility, and utility players have to throw right handed if they are going to play anything other than OF-1b. So... teach your kids to throw righty and hit lefty, which has always been pretty solid advice anyway.

Huh, a week ago we had Eels, not really a backup shortstop, but capable there in a pinch and ready to provide depth at AAA. Twins traded away middle infield depth for more catcher depth... and now have an even larger problem with middle infield depth. And now they are supposed to sign Arcia, after already overpaying for a subpar 31 yo catcher? Look, the Twins aren't going to have adequate depth next year. Depth is thin everywhere except corner outfield. Yes, even the "great" depth of starting pitching will probably fail, as it seems to take 10 - 12 starters to get through a season these days. They might lose 80 games, or they might lose 100. That'll be the case with Fitzgerald as the backup SS, or conceivably any other player the Twins may pick up. Just roll with Fitzgerald to keep the seat warm for Culpepper in '27. It's going to be a development year, not a contending year.

When does ownership and FO next plan to compete for a playoff run? That's the "core" question, and impacts who you hold on to vs who you trade. It is safe to say there is no realistic plan to compete in '26, despite what the marketers will tell ticket buyers (which is not the marketer's fault...every team sells hope). I find it a little unlikely that they will be able to compete in '27. It isn't impossible, but a lot of younger players would need to get better quickly, and ownership would need to be willing to spend a little more to acquire or retain talent. My guess is that this is what Falvey is aiming for, or hoping for, because he probably won't survive in his job if the Twins can't compete by '27. I have no idea if ownership will invest for '27 though. If the Twins are going to wait to compete until '28 or '29 or beyond then there is little reason to hold on to any of the current core. Sure, holding the core will allow the Twins to hope for 80 wins instead of 70, but is that a meaningful difference? Might as well continue to trade them for prospects as was done with Duran, Jax, etc. and hope that your scouts correctly identified good young players in return. I don't love this answer, but I fear its the realistic one.

I can concede that the coaches may not be the primary problem. But the Twins org has an unfortunate habit of giving up on players that go on to perform very well elsewhere. Somehow, nobody in the org saw value in Ronny Henriquez last winter. A 24yo hard throwing reliever, and the Twins just cut him to make room for....Michael Tonkin. Henriquez was outstanding for Miami this year, far better than any year Tonkin has ever had in his long career. That's on the coaches and/or GM. Somehow, nobody in the org saw much value in Yenier Cano. Similar story, not successful for the Twins in a brief trial, but very good for Baltimore in '23 and '24. Plenty of other examples exist. Meanwhile, the prospects that the Twins do hang onto tend to underperform expectations. It makes one wonder how they will do if/when they get away from Minnesota. There is either a talent identification problem, or a player development problem. Coaches and management bear some responsibility for the results.

Coach LaTroy? Heck, as thin as the bullpen was at the end of the year maybe he can still pitch!?! He should be well rested!

Use of the word "rebuild" in the title feels a little too optimistic. It would imply that Twins ownership intends to build a contender again, long term. It's possible that rather than attempting to win, they are content to put together a long string of sub-.500 seasons while pocketing revenue sharing money as profits. According to Bob Nightengale's recent article the Pirates were among the more profitable teams in MLB the past few years, and they haven't had a winning season for a decade. I don't doubt that business model could appeal to the Pohlads. Who better to lead such an effort on the field than Shelton?

Wallner has some interesting company. Acuna, Seager, Chapman, etc... lots of good players on this list. Mostly they share something in common...they played on teams that underperformed offensively in 2025. Maybe they were the causes of that underperformance, but I suspect the lack of RBI's was also a lack of baserunners to drive in. Look, he's cheap, he had success in 2023 and 24, and he might return to that form. If some other team is willing to pay a rate based on his '23 and '24 stats I'd certainly listen, but I'd be reluctant to sell low on Wallner simply due to a bad 2025.

Pirates have Livvy Dunne in the stands for 1/5th of their home games. Edge, Pirates. 😁 But, more seriously, the Twins are probably more like the AL version of the Reds than the Pirates. Cheap owners, poor tv revenue, dependent on developing their own players, capable of making the playoffs when the stars align, but have typically exited early. Making a run in the playoffs apparently takes a minor miracle or a fluke, and is probably only going to happen very rarely under baseball's current financial structure. I'm hoping for one more World Series in my lifetime. It's been 30+ years. If I can get that I'll be happy.