bean5302

If we look at the defensive philosophy, deployment and drafting/development, it's hard to find an infield prospect who doesn't boot balls around like they're playing soccer. It's practically become a hallmark of Twins defenders to have lousy fielding percentages, even if they have the athletic tools. Is it really a matter of priorities when guys can't throw or catch balls?

As William Malone noted Christian Guzman was horrifying in his rookie year (and awful the next year too) Advocating for the Twins to follow the Guzman method is crazy to me. Guzman was well below average as a hitter in the minors, including his only AA experience where he managed a .656 OPS at age 20. The Twins then bafflingly had Guzman skip AAA altogether, immediately making him the full time SS at the MLB level for his age 21 season. It was a ludicrous strategy and Guzman went on to produce -3.4 WAR with poor defense and a .543 OPS (wRC+ 34) in 1999 and then -0.1 WAR with shaky defense and a .687 OPS (wRC+ 69, steroid era) in 2000. This method would basically be promoting Kaelen Culpepper to starting 3B this year.

The reason why metrics are used is because the eye test can be emotionally biased and based on a limited number of plays vs. analyzing all of the plays. Not saying Julien is a good fielder, btw. I've seen him make terrible plays and impressive plays. I honestly don't believe the Twins' coaches are capable of developing plus defensive players.

First major season onwards in fWAR: Bader vs. Margot vs Kepler 3.7 vs 2.4 vs 2.0 1.6 vs 1.0 vs 1.8 3.0* vs 1.6 vs 2.4 3.0 vs 1.5* vs 3.9 1.5 vs 2.1 vs 3.3* 0.9 vs 1.3 vs 2.2 1.3 vs 0.5 vs 1.5 N/A vs -0.2 vs 2.8 N/A vs N/A vs 1.0 *2020 season, each player played 47-50 games, multiplied WAR by 3x Bader is a significant step up from Margot, historically, and Margot was in obvious major decline defensively while Bader hasn't shown that. Ultimately, Bader is a much better option than Margot in terms of a backup for Byron Buxton. Bader is "fine" as insurance. I don't expect great things from him, but I also don't expect a sub 1.0 WAR season from him, let alone a negative WAR season like Margot had. In regard to comparing Bader to Kepler (who is annihilating pitchers in Spring Training), Kepler is the significantly better player. Kepler is a league average bat with some significant upside, and Max has pretty much always justified his role as an every day starter while Bader has been a backup quality player a couple times. Bader is a well below average bat without Kepler's ceiling, but Bader is the better of two defensively, by a healthy margin for the last couple years. Bader is going to play pretty much every day. He's probably on a 1 year $9.5MM contract ($6.25 base + $1.5MM for 500 PA + $1.5MM buyout).

He signed with the Yankees on an MLB contract.

The term natural position often means the position the player is most suited to play. Since he was drafted, many scouts felt Martin was going to end up at 2B due to a combination of his good, but not excellent speed, and an arm which isn't really suited for the far side of the infield.

He's been DFA'd. If he clears waivers (I'd be fairly surprised if he did), the Twins will offer him back to the Phillies.

If the focus on the 12 innings he pitched in relief in 2023, and everything else gets ignored, I can see why people would have high ceiling optimism. That said, if you're going to create a narrative like the "one inning, let it fly" and "attention span" ideas, at least check his game logs. Only 3 of his 7 relief appearances in 2023 were limited to 1.0 innings or less, and Varland had similar success in the 1.2+ inning appearances. In 2024 only 3 of his 9 relief appearances were 1.0 inning without some sort of boost in performance from what I see. Varland's results out of the 'pen were bad in 2024, but his metrics and pitch qualities suggest he could be a 3.50-4.00 ERA reliever to me.

Hendriks is a very different pitcher than Varland, and Hendiks' transition to reliever resulted in a much more dramatic change. Hendriks picked up 4mph going from averaging 91.5mph to 95.5mph in his first year as a reliever. His velocity peaked at over 97.5mph meaning a total of 6mph improvement. Varland only goes up 1-2mph since he was already throwing hard. In terms of stuff, Hendriks has developed 2 plus pitches, he's more like Griffin Jax. Varland probably has no plus pitches. The curve might work out for him as a good plus pitch, but he rarely threw it last year. Varland's other offerings are pretty average. I expect Varland to be a mediocre reliever with stuff that doesn't move well so it gets barreled up, and velo which isn't overpowering relative to the average reliever. Varland's results as a reliever thus far have not been inspiring.

Overstretching is one of the biggest contributors to injury.

That's essentially what I call QS2. 5.0+ innings, ERA of 3.99 or less. The reason is the likelihood of winning a game. For each run your pitchers allow, the chances of winning a game drop dramatically. Here are the winning percentages if the Twins pitchers allowed <x> number of runs, assuming ties are 50/50 win/loss. Notice after allowing more than 1 run, it's a pretty linear decline in winning percentage for every run allowed. 0 = .969 (157-5) 1 = .895 (145-17) -.074 2 = .772 (125-37) -.123 3 = .623 (102-60) -.142 4 = .500 (81-81) -.129 5 = .377 (61-101) -.123 6 = .265 (43-119) -.111 This is why 6.0 Innings and allowing 3 Runs is not really a quality start IMHO. You leave your bullpen in a situation where they need to throw 3 scoreless innings (very difficult) because if they allow another run, you're not likely to win the game. A pitcher who goes 6.0 innings and allows 3 ER (4.50 ERA) didn't give their team a good chance at a playoff record. 6.0 IP and 3 ER has a much lower chance of victory than 5.0 IP and 2 ER because the bullpen can cough up a run in the latter case and still have a great chance at winning.

I'd imagine SS depth with Lee/Lewis/Eeles out is probably: Correa -> Castro -> Holland I suppose it's possible we could see Martin at SS.

Almost as thorough as my example :)

It's funny to me to watch the shift in opinion on TD for Gasper. The lamentation Gasper might somehow see a plate appearance from a couple months ago to the thoughts Gasper is a good addition to the 26 man and that he will become some sort of fan favorite. What I will say is Gasper is doing exactly what he needs to show his bat might play at the MLB level, and that's swing at more pitches. His overall swing rate is at 41.4% this spring. Still very low, but essentially the highest of his career. Gasper will not be able to be as passive as he's historically been at the MLB level because MLB pitchers know how to throw strikes which aren't mistakes. Players will not be successful waiting exclusively for meatballs like they can feast on through the low minors, and have some success even through AAA. Gasper's first pitch strike rate is only 40.5% right now, but it's not going to stay that way. Since Gasper is starting 60% of his plate appearances ahead it in count 1-0, it's no surprise his BB rate and K rate are so impressive this spring. His batted ball profile this spring is mediocre line drive rate, lots and lots of grounders, and some fly balls with moderate pop. He'll need to reduce the grounders in exchange for his historically higher line drives to have continued success. If he's able to adapt to MLB pitching and reach his potential at the plate, Gasper's batted ball profile probably falls somewhere between Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien, but I'd be surprised if Gasper was ever a true plus value bat. Whether or not Gasper could be a regular depends on his defense and position.

Check out hockeywilderness.com sometime, LOL. It's endless contradictions. On Monday morning the Wild are hopeless, doomed for all eternity, the team's strategy is flawed, the GM needs to be fired, and the owner should sell the team. On Monday night bit player a had a good game so the Wild are now serious threats for the Stanley Cup thanks to the super stud GM acquiring bit player A. At least I don't have to read how a historically dirty Twins player tried to kill another player on the ice so they've got an unfair 8 game suspension! Oh the humanity!

Isn't it a tough job following me around the forums like a lost puppy downvoting and taunting me on everything I post like a sociopathic 6yr old? At least I can rest easy knowing some things never change, haha. I hope you know you've been ignored for months so the only time I see your posts is when I forget to log in, lol. Taunt away!

I agree with the universal sentiment here. #17 overall vs. #3 is a meaningless distinction. Walker Jenkins is universally considered an elite prospect with the ceiling of a superstar player by scouts. In my analysis of similar prospects, Jenkins falls into the 2nd tier of players. (High school draft picks ranked in the top 10 for MLB, in A+ or above by age 19). The top tier were all star players. The second tier had guys like Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa, but also 50% of guys who washed out at the MLB level (everybody made MLB). I'm lower on Jenkins than probably anybody on TD, and certainly lower than scouts as I think he'll wind up being more Max Kepler than a superstar, but Max Kepler is one of the top 30 Twins position players in career WAR to ever wear the jersey. Huge score for any draft pick.

I suppose it depends on what a "core" player is considered. My definition for core wouldn't probably include guys who had a ceiling under 2.5 WAR so a guy like Larnach doesn't need to be in the conversation. Even with his bat being highly shielded from lefties, Larnach managed only 1.5 fWAR in 400 plate appearances. The "above average" bat is even a little in doubt as he'd never posted a wRC+ above 101 prior to last year. If that's "core" the team is weak. Removing Lewis from core, but keeping Buxton as part of the core makes no sense to me, either. Buxton was horrible in 2023, generating only 0.6 fWAR with a wRC+ 97 season almost exclusively at DH. Buxton's just as injury prone as Lewis. If core just means a player who is meeting expectations, and you expect more from Lewis... I guess.

Yeah, the 2024 Guardians make no sense on paper. Projections like the Guardians to win 84ish games this year. I wasn't impressed with the Guardians rotation prior to last year and I'm less impressed with it this year. I do think Bieber is on track for a June/July return to the mound, but I'm not convinced he'll be the weapon he once was. Now entering his age 30 season, Bieber saw a decline in velo from 94.3mph in his age 25 season of 2020 down 3mph to 91.5mph from 2022-2023 finishing at age 28. A brief velo spike back to 92.5 at age 29 in 2024 was followed by a torn UCL. The Guardians need Bieber to return to elite form. If he does and he's back in June, the team might be a lot more of a danger. They've got what looks to be an elite 1-2 punch in the bullpen with Smith and Clase, and then a bunch of projected mediocre to riff-raff arms, though a few of those guys got excellent results despite having FIPs which suggested they were just going to be adequate. Forecasting so much regression is questionable. Projection models don't like the exceptionally low BABIP generated by many of the Guardians relievers to be sustainable. Have to see on that. When it comes to the bats, their RISP results are not going to return this year. It's not to say the Guardians are going to have a "bad" lineup, just that I don't expect them to be good, either. Then there is the Pythagorean results which helped the Guardians win a ton of games they really shouldn't have overall, beyond things like BABIP and RISP luck.

@Cody Pirkl swinging strike rates not whiff rate. 18.1-21.4% is ultra elite. Last year, only 7 of 254 relievers with 30+ innings managed a swinging strike rate of 18.0% or higher. None was over Josh Hader's 20.5%.

Brock Stewart underwent shoulder surgery last year and he has precious little track record as the pitcher he is now, throwing 97 instead of 93. One thing which has been consistent is he's always hurt. I think he's supposed to start throwing again in the next couple days. Tier 1 - Duran, Jax. Tier 2 - Stewart, Alcala Tier 3 - Sands, Coulombe, Topa Tier 4 - Varland, Tonkin, everybody else It should be a very good bullpen. Tonkin won't be pitching for the Twins for the first couple weeks at least. Topa and Stewart are both constantly injured. I don't really care too much about who is 7th or 8th in the bullpen. They shouldn't be seeing much action where the game is actually in doubt.

I agree with @chpettit19. Duran's velocity is elite at 100mph or 102mph. Last year looked like it was luck fueled as his FIP was better than his mega velo 2023. 2022 = 100.9, 2.52 FIP 2023 = 101.8, 3.21 FIP 2024 = 100.4, 2.85 FIP <-- Duran can't throw hard anymore, he's cooked, what's wrong???? Duran has pitched 6.1 innings this year in spring training. He's publicly stated he's not trying to throw max velo right now. 3/12 vs. Boston. 21.4% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 2Ks. 3/15 vs. Atlanta. 18.2% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 0Ks. 3/18 vs. Detroit. 0.0% swinging strike rate. 0.1 IP, 0Ks, 3R 2ER. <--- His swinging strike rate in ST is bad! The last batter fouled off 6 pitches and saw 11 of the 24 pitches Duran threw. Fastball velo ranged from 98.1mph to 99.7mph.

This is fair. I've already 80% closed the book on what he can be based on what I've seen, and you're more optimistic there's more in the tank. There are fair reasons to suspect there's more to Brooks Lee than what he's shown. The shoulder and back could have physically hampered him more than we know. Maybe Lee's arm strength was sapped from the shoulder and that impacted not only his throwing but his swing speed/max exit velo? That would essentially make a huge impact on Lee's projectability.

Your points: You: Low leverage Relievers don't exist because players might be used in ways which are not ideal. Me: Christian Vazquez was used in a way which was not ideal. He's still a catcher. All MLB players will be used in roles/situations where a team would rather not use them. It doesn't change the role the player is expected to play. You: Games are going to be won or lost because a sub-par reliever who is not suited to pitching high leverage scenarios is on the mound. Me: I literally just made the Jay Jackson example in a different post. This is how Jay Jackson started his year last year. 3/31 vs. KCR - Entered game bottom of the 8th, Score 11-0, chance of the Twins win 100.0% 4/2 vs. MIL - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 3-2, chance of the Twins win 79.1% 4/6 vs. CLE - Entered game top of the 9th, score 1-3, chance of the Guardians win 92.9% 4/8 vs. LAD - Entered game top of the 7th, score 2-2, chance of the Twins win 50.0%* 4/12 vs. DET - Entered game bottom of the 8th, score 7-0, chance of Twins win 99.9% 4/13 vs. DET - Entered game bottom of the 12th, score 4-11, chance of Tigers win 99.7% 4/16 vs. BAL - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 9-2, chance of Twins win 99.7% 4/21 vs. DET - Entered game top of the 7th, score 0-4, chance of Tigers win 94.6% 4/23 vs. CHW - Entered game runners on top of the 8th, score 2-3, chance of White Sox win 81.6%** 4/27 vs. CAL - Entered game bottom of the 8th, score 5-14, chance of Angels winning 99.9% 4/30 vs. CHW - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 4-3, chance of Twins winning 79.2% 5/5 vs. BOS - Entered game runners on top of 8th, score 1-7, chance of Red Sox winning 99.3% *Jay Jackson took the loss. **Jay Jackson earned the win. Everything else, Jay Jackson had no impact, and honestly had little to no chance of making an impact. Jackson was used in 1 high leverage scenario for his first month and a half on the team which was an appearance vs. the meat of the Dodgers lineup in a tie game in the 6th inning. What are the chances any reliever gets out of that safely? His next 4 appearances over 2 weeks and 3 series' didn't have a single game which wasn't already totally decided before he entered. You're factually proven wrong here. This is a specific example from the Twins last year. Over his first month and a half on the team, Jackson entered only 3 additional appearances where the game wasn't already over, but there still wasn't even a 25% chance of a game outcome change statistically. Jackson got the "win" in one of them. Jay Jackson being on the mound vs. an elite reliever likely made no difference for over a month.

You don't even have a leg to stand on. Christian Vazquez clearly is not a catcher by your definition of having no low leverage relievers. Vazquez DH'd in 3 games.