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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Thanks for the example! I was looking for one myself, but I didn't spend too much time on it. I'm not sure how the Twins feel about Canterino at this point so it'll be interesting to see if they do a 2 year MiLB deal.
  2. bean5302
    Personally, I'm looking forward to a sale of the franchise! That's my hope so please don't take it from me, haha.
  3. bean5302
    McCusker was signed out of Indy Ball during his age 25 season so this is his 2nd full season in the minors. He followed a very similar path to Payton Eeles, but McCusker's promotions came a little slower. He's not a typical prospect as a result. It's worth noting that McCusker has improved in multiple facets of his game since his initial season, cutting his K rate from 36.8% in A/A+ during the 2023 season to 31% in AAA this year so far. His walk rate also jumped from 7.9% during his first season to 12.1% this year. It's clear McCusker has been working hard on plate discipline, and what looked like an high grade power tool took a back seat to improved sustainability at the plate last year. This year, he may have put it together. He's currently 26 years old so too old for a typical prospect, but it's hard to gauge him purely based on age. It's also not like age doesn't matter at all since he's certainly had plenty of experience in the indy leagues. When it comes to Canterino, I don't think multi-year deals are allowed in MiLB so if Canterino signs a MiLB deal with Minnesota, it'd only be for this year. I'm not sure as there's a reason to sign him to a MiLB deal as he's not going to be able to play at all this year. It would be a nice gesture, I suppose? Winokur's bat is starting to show some consistent life in A+ ball after a truly dreadful first few games in Cedar Rapids. No HR's yet, but I'll take his last 7 games as .258/.395/.355 OPS .750 wRC+ 121 with a 16% BB vs. 18% K rate. His first 5 games were miserable .050/.174/.100 OPS .274 wRC+ (14) with a 8% BB vs. 30% K rate. SSSS.
  4. bean5302
    I don't see a big change in Stuff+ vs. last year despite the velo increase. Zebby's pitches all grade out at 45-55 (average MLB caliber). No plus offerings (120+). Matthews should be a solid starter at the MLB level, but he'll probably need better movement to become an upper rotation threat.
  5. bean5302
    Duran through first 9 appearances 2022 = 100.0 2023 = 101.4 <-- outlier, not the norm 2024 = 100.6 2025 = 100.1
  6. bean5302
    ...Luke Keaschall reminds me a lot of young Ryne Sandberg. Probably Keaschall's floor, really. They're both right handed and play 2B with a similar size and batting stance and Sandberg is a HoF'er so it's natural to expect that out of Keaschall, too. I mean, Keaschall was a common top 100 in all of baseball prospect, and that means this is a reasonable comp. Also, Keaschall will get no more than 200 PA where he doesn't do something to irritate the writers of TD before I write him off and start calling for his DFA.
  7. bean5302
    Too early. He's barely holding his own at AAA. Just like Brooks Lee last year, who flopped hard. Hopefully Keaschall is able to adapt quickly to a level of play far above AAA.
  8. bean5302
    I think there's always a grace period after a promotion. Sometimes it takes a little bit to get used to the new situation. What used to be EZ mode now requires more focus, and if the player has the talent, they'll show it. The big 2 for the Twins are obviously Jenkins who is still on the IL (hopefully, he's starting to get closer to a return) and Emma who is just holding his head above water at AAA. I like the dropping K rate for Emma, but the power absolutely needs to show up sooner than later. He's now at 86 PA at AAA with only 1 HR between last year and this year. Each in their 3rd go 'round at their level Schobel (AA) and Gonzalez (A+) could do quite a bit to rebuild their stock this year. Schobel needs to make the most of his athleticism, but if he can keep the K rate low, he could be projectable despite the lighter power potential. Gonzalez is going to need to add power as a corner outfielder with a stout build. There's no way he hasn't added at least 40lbs to his 5'11" 165lb listed frame, and that's not going to be all muscle. If Gonzalez wants to play at 2-bills plus, he'll need to hit for power.
  9. bean5302
    France is doing fine. He's not great defensively, as billed, but his bat is holding its own at the moment. At .265/.324/.397 OPS .721 wRC+ 114, he's not burning the barn down, but it's valuable enough. It's still super early in the season, obviously. This time last year Carlos Santana was at .135/.224/.154 OPS .378 wRC+ 8. While I wasn't excited about the Farmer signing, the combination of his solid play and Miranda's horrible start make it look like a good move.
  10. bean5302
    It was a comment on the article's reference to the pitching pipeline. The article also talked about the Tampa Bay Rays. Is it okay to reference the pitching pipeline now? I find it hard to believe people are still trying to debate whether or not Derek Falvey was hired largely because he oversaw Cleveland's highly successful pitching program. It's true that Cleveland relied on trades and other methods to create their sustainable rotation which led to guys like Kluber, Masterson, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, etc. At the time of his hire, the Guardians looked like savants at developing and building a rotation. Maybe Derek Falvey was hired to advise the Pohlads on fashion choices, but I find it more plausible he was hired because of his specific background and experience.
  11. bean5302
    Jeffers is due for a lot of increased power production, and probably a little slip in the OBP. He's a career .231/.310/.423 OPS .733 wRC+ 106 hitter. He's got a arc style swing that really lifts and drives the ball when he's on time, but generates a ton of pop ups when he's off, and it's a swing that doesn't generate many line drives so his average is usually pretty low. That said, his batted ball trends reflect what you'd expect to see more from a flat swing like Austin Martin this year. Things will adjust as time goes on and sample sizes expand. Jeffers is a solid contributor who is going to be fairly streaky. Last year it was all working out for him for the first month and a half, but if you looked closely, there was no way it was sustainable. Jeffers had an 85.5mph average exit velo and a 25% HR/FB rate. Basically, it was lots of luck whenever he put the ball in the air. The rest of the year was just regression to the mean as Jeffers actually improved his average EV, and I'd argue even his launch angle. As a guy in his age 28 season, Jeffers is pretty established. He's obviously making efforts to change this plate approach, but there are going to be some ceilings established on him at this point.
  12. bean5302
    While the bullpen gets burned out just like we've seen in years past. Recovering from burned out status takes a lot of time.
  13. bean5302
    Nine years and one successful MLB starter. I think I'll hold back on the awards. There's a reason almost nobody is talking about Morris. He doesn't strike guys out, and he's not been elite with walks, either despite what this article would have people believe. 2.63 BB/9 this year, 2.94 BB/9 last year in AAA. It's not even elite control, let alone command. Morris has a current day Chris Paddack-like ceiling. A back end starter is honestly pretty valuable, but the way this article talks about him is like he's the next Tarik Skubal.
  14. bean5302
    Ahhh, the vaunted pitching pipeline we've been hearing about for 9 years now which has produced one single successful starting pitcher (Bailey Ober). Unfortunately, Falvey was unable to come up with even a single starter from all the inherited pitching prospects, but it does finally look like Festa and Matthews might join as the only other two drafted starters to ever come through Falvey's system. I think it's safe to say even Baldelli's staunchest supporters have finally accepted he comes with a fair amount of problems to his ever changing approach since it never really seems to work. Falvey gets credit for adopting a new methodology, dramatically updating and improving the technology used in the front office. Apart from that, his regime been lousy at drafting, slow to develop players, and absolutely plagued with endless injuries and disappointments.
  15. bean5302
    No. Poor range, weak arm. Correa's range is also limited, but he has one of the best arms in all of baseball to make up for it. Lee's primary assets for defense are his instincts, positioning, and fundamental techniques. It's possible Lee could be serviceable at SS, but he's not going to be average or above.
  16. bean5302
    That's my thought as well, but I also understand things just decide to "hurt" randomly as we get older. Whether it's just something Correa will have to live with or whether or not there's something going on we'll have to find out. Honestly, the area Correa was looking at seems a bit like it could be a potential hamate issue. In regard to Kirilloff, it was a pain management issue. He had no/little cartilage left in his wrist after he wore it all out and he had to have the head of his radius shaved a little to reduce the bone on bone wear and subsequent inflammation as I recall. We have no idea whether or not Correa's been told it's a pain management thing or that rest will permanently heal it or whatever. It apparently wasn't serious enough to impact him last year.
  17. bean5302
    I feel pretty strongly Dave St. Peter and Thad Levine were front office cost savings by the Pohlad's. While I think there's plenty of reason to can Baldelli, I also 100% believe Falvey will scapegoat Rocco for any and all the organizational issues possible. Falvey's failed to back up Baldelli publicly before in regard to TTO and rest days etc. Falvey's CYA techniques are expert level. Honestly, his PR skills are outstanding. I don't think there's a snowball's chance Baldelli gets a pink slip, though. The Twins are a total organizational mess.
  18. bean5302
    Also, fine. If the manager has no influence on the outcomes of the games, I'm willing to accept the role. I'll even do it at a bargain basement price relative to the competition. $500k a year. Hell, even less. I'll do it for $250k! I can occasionally argue balls and strikes from a lousy vantage point (this is the right of all fans anyway) and kick dirt on the plate to rile up the crowd on occasion.
  19. bean5302
    1. The manager pushes the preparation (maybe H?) plan 2. The manager pushes organization fundamentals 3. The manager creates a lot of the organization's tone 4. The manager is the primary public representative and critic of the players 5. The manager decides how long starters pitch 6. The manager decides how to use the bullpen 7. The manager decides who plays what positions 8. The manager decides who is in the lineup 9. The manager decides the lineup order 10. The manager decides whether or not to use a pinch hitter The tone, preparation, fundamentals, public perception, player image, who pitches, who hits, who fields. I've never played at the MLB level so I can't say with absolute certainly it's not 100% the opposite of every other industry I've ever worked in, but I can say that lineup of roles and responsibilities (and their business world counterparts) has an enormous impact in the areas I have worked.
  20. bean5302
    Exactly. There are a bunch of reasons to shut down SF/NY in those scenarios. My point is Correa could have chosen to move ahead with negotiations if he wanted to, and he could have gotten a contract at as good or better than what he wound up getting with the Twins. For example, the Twins initially offered Correa a fully guaranteed 10 year $285MM contract. The final negotiated deal was 6yrs $200MM guaranteed, 4yrs $80MM vesting (10yrs $280MM with vesting). The Twins' renegotiated offer didn't change much from the initial offer if vesting occurs. Getting NY or SF to $200MM+ guaranteed (matching or beating the Twins) would not have been hard, but it would have set a bad precedent for players in general, and it would have required Correa to accept what he felt was pretty insulting conduct.
  21. bean5302
    The Twins have a real medical staff, trainer, coaching, manager problem at this point. Guys just drop like flies left and right year in and year out. The Twins are able to move around guys as needed, but what is going on with Will Holland? He would have been the 3rd depth guy for SS behind Castro and Lee. He played a bit early in ST, but then had some sort of injury. He's on the 7 day IL.
  22. bean5302
    Yeah... if Larnach only had 200 PA at the MLB level before the Twins wrote him off.
  23. bean5302
    Correa didn't even take SF's calls after they balked at the physical despite SF wanting to work something out. The Mets initially countered with 6yrs $157MM after the physical, but with options to reach the original $315MM based solely on physicals which is more than he could ultimately earn with the Twins. Correa refused to negotiate. It's almost nonsensical to believe Correa couldn't have gotten something similar to the reduced Twins' offer from SF or NY had Correa been willing to negotiate after the physicals.
  24. bean5302
    Wallner hamstring "tightness." Hopefully he won't miss a ton of time, but I'd bet he'll be out for at least 2 weeks. Don't know much about Correa's wrist. Just know it was sore and he left the game.
  25. bean5302
    He wasn't forced back to the Twins. He rebuffed both SF and NY's attempts at additional negotiations and both SF and NY were on record as surprised/disappointed they weren't able to find a way to get him. I agree Correa would be more likely to waive his NTC, and he's got more leverage to work out a deal to make it happen with all those vesting options. Buxton's NTC ends after next year so he might be willing to waive the NTC if the 5 team trade list provision got removed as well.
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