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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Morris provides high quality short term injury replacement rotational depth IMHO. That said, if they can get high end relief value from him, I'm all for seeing him out of the bullpen.
  2. bean5302
    If Wallner makes that catch, it's on every single highlight reel for MLB. His last adjustment to change from looking over the right shoulder to looking at it over the left shoulder while running back put him out of position. Wallner made a near impossible catch look "possible" but he didn't make it. But 50% of this site absolutely hates the guy. So what can you do? LOL
  3. bean5302
    Average OPS on bunts in MLB is about .580. Obviously, that's going to be with 0-1 strikes as bunts can't seriously be attempted with 2 strikes. .290/.290/.290 OPS .580 wRC+ 60ish. Even a very good bunter isn't going to be very successful when it comes to dragging a bunt for a hit. Bunting is really a situational thing. Outman has the advantage of being a left handed hitter so he could potentially benefit from a strong infield shift, but you're only really going to see that when there aren't any RISP. With RISP, his chance at getting on base with a bunt aren't going to be very good and his chance for extra bases is really nil. Might be able to sac bunt a run in with guys at the corners so the 1B can't play in.
  4. bean5302
    Outman is DaShawn Keirsey 2.0 at this point, except not as fast and even more expensive and without options. I don't think the Twins would have a problem DFA'ing him and having him pass through waivers. It's clear Outman is working on his approach at the plate trying to cut down the strikeouts, but he's going to need regular plate appearances to make progress. It's better for him to try to learn how to hit in MiLB rather than at the MLB level. The question is do we want Rodon or Emma or Gonzalez up here sitting on the bench and playing defensive replacement while the Twins have other players as the primary left fielder? If a player is going to be sacrificed to the defensive replacement role, I'd rather it not be a higher ceiling guy.
  5. bean5302
    Excessive glove movement is considered a negative for framing, especially after the ball is in the glove. Jeffers and the Twins had an approach change, I think, last year when Jeffers was essentially setting up middle-middle for all pitches to help the pitchers throw strikes. Umpires adjust to framing techniques over time which requires catcher techniques to constantly evolve in order to maintain reputation as a good framer which may help explain why catcher framing is not repeatable from year to year. It's basically a junk stat, IMHO. ABS challenge proficiency is in its infancy and I can't imagine other catchers have a hard time with identifying the strike zone. The question long term is whether Jeffers is so good he can get an appreciable advantage over other catchers when he can only be wrong 2x per game? Also... is ABS challenge going to be a thing at all? Will MLB move to fully automated ball/strike systems in the future? If they move to full automation, catcher framing is worthless entirely. It shifts catcher defensive metrics hard towards pitch blocking, where he's pretty average-ish, and controlling the run game where he's definitely below average. Jeffers value as a catcher is really in his bat, his ability to be an adequate catcher, and his durability in an era where catchers are rarely asked to play full seasons worth of games.
  6. bean5302
    Provided he duplicates last year's performance, I'd say Jeffers is probably in line for a 3-4 year deal at $40-55MM or so. He'll be entering his age 30 season next year so longer term contracts for a catcher aren't likely materializing, and Jeffers isn't elite, he's just good. Changing his plate approach to improve OBP and contact is probably more sustainable than his previous high K, high power approach.
  7. bean5302
    Next up, Byron Buxton doesn't win the lottery... AGAIN!!! Buxton continues his 0-32 jackpot streak, and he deserves to win at this point. It's unfair. Buck's xwOBA is a miserable .250. It won't stay there and we don't have enough sample size to take really anything away from "expected" metrics. But, yes, his results are warranted based on his plate performance. He's popping everything up and not squaring up the ball much.
  8. bean5302
    I'll take the win, and the strong results from Ober. The Tigers were not hitting his pitches well at all, despite even more decline on the velocity. As noted above, after inning 3, Ober's fastball sat in the 87.x mph range a scary amount. Kyle Hendricks (4.76 ERA 86.6mph) and Trevor Williams (6.21 ERA 87.9mph) are the only starters out of 221 pitchers with more than 30 innings last year who managed lower than Ober's 88.1mph average yesterday. I don't think it's sustainable for him, but Ober will continue to get the call for a while. It would be really interesting to see him be successful as a soft tosser. I think it would also be good for the game in general.
  9. bean5302
    Twins expanding bad fielder model by continuing to move players from position to position as soon as they look like they're making progress. Zoll - We started to see player <x> smoothing out in his fielding at 2B, so we knew we had to get him to a new position which was completely different and would really make him look like he has rock hands as soon as possible. At all costs, we want to avoid having any position players on the team. We want 13 utility players kicking balls around the field and throwing gloves at grounders like little league. One of our biggest regrets, organizationally, was not being able to move Byron Buxton around the field during his MiLB career. We could have really messed his defensive game up by slotting him in at SS a little, maybe some catcher. But he came up through the previous regime. Best we could do was put him at DH sometimes. Super disappointing. Now he's established as a "center fielder." Honestly, it's one of the reasons we didn't want to extend him back in 2021. Buxton wanted to remain a CF, but Derek was insistent. "You have to play some 3B." Can't believe Buxton wasn't receptive. Oh well. We'll survive.
  10. bean5302
    Agreed. My Hope-O-Meter won't start realistically moving until I see the results I think are necessary for the Twins to have sustained success this year. 4 legitimate quality starting pitchers in the rotation, and strong performances from several question mark position players. Probably no changes until the end of May.
  11. bean5302
    Derek Falvey's front office has 10 years of failure legacy. I'm done. Taj Bradley turning into a perennial Cy Young will not impact my position in the slightest. Full purge. I saw what Zoll did after Falvey was fired. Nothing. Falzoll needs to go, with completely new leadeship and a new philosophy born of that leadership needs to come in. Could I eventually change my mind on Zoll? Sure. After a few years of sustained successes, but he's in a deep, deep hole in terms of my approval and confidence.
  12. bean5302
    It's also broken because of a "per capita" rate, in this case "households." When you have 5 million visiting people in a neighborhood, it skews the rates badly because they're not part of the household count. Property values are very high, there's tons of night life and many people around. Sure, I wouldn't want to be wandering alone through dark alleys at 3am, but for times around major events like Twins games? No concern.
  13. bean5302
    Honestly, WPA is kind of a better "RBI" as it eliminates a common complaint about player performances across sports tied to the concept of garbage time. What about just runners on 2B? A single often scores a base runner in that scenario. In addition, how many plate appearances total for each category. If it's under 300, there's just way too much noise. Then you have to consider who was on base, right? Did the HoF player come from a time where the Twins were speedy and aggressive base runners where the hitter was say a couple spots down from Dan Gladden or did it come from the Falvey era filled with plodding corner DH's masquarading as position players? Was the player surrounded by incompetent bats where all a pitcher was going to do was throw junk because there were 3 easy outs coming up next? The era they played (impacts OPS+/wRC+), and other items which make it hard to compare apples to apples on players. I think there are certainly players who are better under pressure than others, it's just awfully hard to get to using "RBI"
  14. bean5302
    Ober needs to get his arm slot right if that's what is wiping his velo out. He can't survive as an MLB starter with 2 MLB caliber pitches.
  15. bean5302
    ZOMG!!!! Look at "downtown" Maple Grove!!! It's all red! The only reason the grades aren't worse is Maple Grove gets blended with suburban areas and Osseo. I've gone to hundreds of Twins games in the past few years and I've spent plenty of other time in North Loop.
  16. bean5302
    Bradley talked about a major change in his approach for games after his trade to the Twins. He started paying attention to scouting and being coachable. The trade to the Twins appears to have been the wake up call he needed. I think Tampa recognized Bradley wasn't going to be receptive to the coaching and planning he needed to do there. Tampa wasn't going to get anything out of him so his value to Tampa was limited. It wasn't a question of his talent, at least. He sure has looked good after his adjustments, but it's early. Bradley could have the kind of ceiling to be a front line pitcher. Exciting for the Twins.
  17. bean5302
    Not sure how this got sidetracked into a Rockies and Downtown Minneapois thing, but I'd like to note a couple things. 1) Rockies attract 30,000+ fans on average. The games are well attended, the in game entertainment is excellent and the team caters to young adults looking to have a great game day experience. 2) Target Field is not "downtown" per se Target Field is North Loop. North Loop is clean, extremely safe and well maintained. It seems like about 99.9% of comments regarding the 'scary Minneapolis' thing come from people who haven't been to Target Field in 10 years. North Loop is about as scary as "downtown" Maple Grove.
  18. bean5302
    The Twins were aware Lee couldn't hit from the right side of the plate so they worked with him on improving that in the minors. There's nothing preventing Lee from being successful at the MLB level in terms of Lee's swing. Lee seems to struggle with pitch recognition and confidence to swing hard more frequently. He was a high floor (not a high ceiling) prospect who was massively overhyped here. Unlike most position players coming up through the Twins' system, Lee's been given a very long leash to underperform and make adjustments. I think he's perfectly fine as a backup utility infielder.
  19. bean5302
    Ryan has far exceeded my expectations as a pitcher. I never expected him to be better than a #4 type of guy, but he's continuously re-vamped his arsenal of pitches and he's found successes with the changes, something which is very rare in the world of starting pitchers. His career FIP, xFIP and ERA are all similar. 3.80ish. Last year his FIP and xFIP were 3.70-3.74, but he managed a 67% QS2 (5.0+ IP, ERA 3.99 or less leaving the game). Great stuff, close to #1 caliber results, but not really there. He's going to likely continue to have up and down starts. A playoff caliber rotation arm at this point, no doubt, but reasonable expectations should be in order.
  20. bean5302
    I'm looking at fWAR. You look at whatever you want to try to justify your position. The Twins don't owe Buxton anything.
  21. bean5302
    Larnach is not a starting caliber MLB position player for a good team. He's a league average hitter if you don't shield him from lefties and he's a poor defender. That said, he's got a high floor and he'd be valuable enough as a low cost roster filler for a team. Larnach is a 1.0 WAR kind of player over a full year as a starting left fielder. That's Trevor Larnach. I don't mind the Twins keeping Larnach at $4MM, but he's redundant on this team. That's not "ripping" a guy. Brooks Lee isn't an MLB caliber player, period. Based on results compared to his peers, Brooks Lee's performance has not warranted playing time. That's fair analysis.
  22. bean5302
    I've never understood this sentiment. Virtually every time the Twins have needed Buxton in the playoffs, he's been hurt. The Twins gave him a 7 year contract with full no trade protection when I don't think any team in baseball would have given him more than 3 and without any NTC if Buxton were to have reached free agency. Buxton has led the Twins position players in WAR just 2x in his career. 2021 and 2025. Reports have made it clear he's a team leader in the clubhouse and a stabilizing force who has been with the team a long time. The fact Buxton is the face of the franchise says more about the front office than it does Buxton.
  23. bean5302
    From the game.
  24. bean5302
    You're literally talking about 100's of kiosks, kitchens, heaters, lighting systems, etc. A stadium's load is roughly 5x higher than an average large hospital.
  25. bean5302
    The difference from 88 and 90 is substantial. The 88mph pitch is trailing the 90mph pitch by 1.5 feet. Being late 1.5 feet on a pitch is a strikeout vs. a foul ball and another swing.
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