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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    That's the difference between a AAAA and MLB player right there. Have to be able to make contact on strikes, even to foul them off, and those batters can't watch strike 3 go by them. Eduardo Julien can't and knows he can't. MLB pitchers will discover a players weakness and attack it relentlessly.
  2. bean5302
    I should probably just bow out, but there are are only 63 relievers last year with an ERA (stupid metric for relievers) over 4.50 out of 253 that had more than 20 innings. 30 of 127 of those guys were 30+ (likely free agents) Now, if we look at the difference between your just under 5.00 ERA reliever over 50 innings and compare to a 4.50 ERA reliever with 50 innings, that's 2-3 runs per year, plenty of cheap free agents who put up 4.50 ERA or better over 30+ innings under $2MM or less contracts. Starting at 4.50 ERA and working better, here are a few of the 46 guys who qualified. Craig Kimbrel - 4.50 at $588k Taylor Rogers - 4.33 at $2.0MM Jose Urquidy - 4.05 at $1.5MM
  3. bean5302
    Biggest faller for me is Charlee Soto. From a potential front line starter to potentially never making an appearance in MLB is catastrophic.
  4. bean5302
    From a quick A.I. interwebs search, you see a very Matt Canterino-like injury history. Injury Timeline Date Injury Description Status April 29, 2025 Right triceps strain Placed on 7-day injured list June 17, 2025 Transferred to 60-day injured list Extended recovery March 11, 2026 Elbow surgery (bone spur removal) Expected to miss early season May 18, 2026 Wrist ligament sprain Began rehab June 2026 Forearm soreness during rehab Rehab assignment paused September 21, 2026 Activated from 7-day injured list Currently active Right forearm strain - Concerning Right forearm strain that takes nearly a full season? 95% going to need TJ sooner than later Elbow surgery - Never heard of elbow surgery being considered minor. Wrist ligament sprain - Odd one, but that's a very important part of the pitcher's body the moment he starts a rehab. Not minor. Right forearm "soreness" - See extreme forearm strain history already. Needs TJ
  5. bean5302
    It was fun to see Rodriguez get his long overdue opportunity. Given how the year went, I'm sure it was demoralizing for him, even if he put himself into the position by his reckless base running techniques. He certainly has the power, and if he get a mistake pitch, Rodriguez can certainly punish it. The sample size was somewhat encouraging in the K rate, which is my main concern with him. The 33% is high, but nothing like the 50%-like rates he's previously posted at the MLB level. I don't know what to expect out of this franchise's direction or baseball in general for next year. That said, Rodriguez is the only edge of legitimate CF backup for Buxton on the roster right now. Rodriguez is probably just fast enough at age 23. Jenkins was barely an above average runner by sprint speed. He'll be stretched beyond reasonable limits to cover.
  6. bean5302
    @DJL44 Plenty of relievers out there at under $5MM that can give you 4.50 ERA. I don't want any 4.50 ERA relievers on the team, but accept some people will be. If Ober were a reliever with the kind of runs allowed metrics he has right now, he'd get a MiLB or $1MM contract. Not all starters gain 2mph from the 'pen. Not all starters turn into great relievers or even get better. In 2026, as a starter, Ober's first time through the order came with a 4.23 FIP and 4.99 xFIP. He's the same guy throwing the same stuff. His ceiling is middle reliever if the 2mph adds something to his game, and he can manage to stay healthy throwing harder.
  7. bean5302
    You want to spend $7MM on Ober as a reliever next year?
  8. bean5302
    Teams would only be expected to have 3 prospects in the top 100 on average. It's not like the Twins' farm is devoid of talent. It's just unlikely to be a top farm system next year. St. Paul 40-35 Wichita 30-39 Cedar Rapids 17-49 Fort Myers 31-32 The Twins MiLB affiliates had rough seasons. Especially A+ and AA.
  9. bean5302
    For whatever reason, people remain convinced he's a prospect after 4 years of disappointing performances.
  10. bean5302
    Ober and Kremer have no options so tendering them means they must be on the roster, and they're both questionably with a rotation spot on a playoff caliber team. If the Twins aren't aiming for the playoffs next year, it matters even less because the Twins can just take a full season to get to know the rest of their young starters. Neither pitcher will likely be worth their salary as a reliever by a long shot so that's not a good option if they pitch poorly, either. Between the two, Kremer is probably better, and he'll be a little cheaper. If the Twins are going to keep one, it should be Kremer. Sign and trade doesn't make sense. At $7MM, Ober would be at market value so the only thing the Twins could potentially do is eat Ober's entire salary and trade him for a lower level prospect or two. The Twins should probably non-tender Ober, though, again, I don't think this is a big question the Twins need to make.
  11. bean5302
    I'd consider buying out the arbitration years/extending slightly Walker Jenkins and Taj Bradley. Nobody else. Keaschall's bat has outperformed metrics, he's got a slow swing and limited power, and he's a DH. Prielipp could be Ricky Nolasco or Brandon Pfaadt (took years to produce) Rodriguez has a high likelihood of never being an MLB caliber player Culpepper has a questionable ceiling of being worth locking up.
  12. bean5302
    So much of direction needs to be based upon what owners expect from the new CBA. Internally, they know what they're willing to accept and what they're not. We can speculate under the current CBA, and MLB Trade Rumors estimates are based upon 2024-2025 arbitration rather than considering potential impact from Skubal. Logan Gilbert $15MM Joe Ryan $9MM Lets get real, Gilbert is better than Ryan, it's not like night and day, though. Players like Ryan have nothing to lose by challenging arbitration. Yes I am aware Ryan has a $12MM mutual option, and I think both parties will accept it. It really seems to have worked out great, surprisingly. But players similar to Joe Ryan have no reason not to push the Skubal decision and push for a much higher salary in their final arbitration year.
  13. bean5302
    Non-tender Banda for sure since we could turn around and sign him for $1MM, if not a MiLB contract. Ober and Kremer are tough calls. Can't have a legitimate contender with both in the rotation, and Ober certainly doesn't warrant $7MM as a reliever. So much of the rest depends on the team's strategy.
  14. bean5302
    I believe in Royce Lewis. It's clear he sold out and just starting swinging for the fences. He's not going to be successful "here." I think Lewis has what it takes, but it's going to take a change of scenery and some security to get him there. The Twins can offer him no plausible security. They've pushed Lewis around the field since his rookie season. There's no credibility for the Twins.
  15. bean5302
    I don't. I wanted Ryan traded the last 2 years when he had legitimate path altering value. He doesn't anymore. If Tom Pohlad is serious about being decisive, there are two directions ahead. Trade every $10MM+ salary on the team and rebuild. or Cast off the guys who aren't good enough to be counted on as legtimate starters, and spend $80MM+ in free agency to create a legit WS competitive roster. This article is about how Joe Ryan represents some major decision for the Twins. He doesn't because trading him doesn't matter.
  16. bean5302
    And what 1 mid-level or 2 long shot prospects are you willing to bet on being valuable players in the future? That's a rhetorical question. The answer is "none." Sure, the Twins "might" get lucky and one of those unranked prospects works out, but they're unranked because nobody actually expects them to be good. A Henry Mendez or Khadim Diaw level guy is what we'd get back. If you want 2, it's a Ben Ross + Brandon Winokur like trade.
  17. bean5302
    service time yes. rookie eligibility, no
  18. bean5302
    Sano never shed weight to a playable level. I think he debuted in 2015 at about 260, and he was decent defensively at 3B. As I recall, he was like 235lbs in 2014 and that was a big jump from like 220lbs in 2013. He kept packing on the fat until he was over 3 bills and never got down to a reasonable playing weight for the rest of his career. It was speculated that Sano hit 335lbs at one point before joining the Angels.
  19. bean5302
    It's a good comp for overall production/profile. MiLB, especially this year's International League, is not the same as MLB. 80%+ of players you're comparing Roden to in the minors are not good enough to stick on an MLB roster. So yeah, Roden's "hard hit" could be slightly better than the average player who isn't good enough to play in MLB. You seem to be confused about SLG = Power. It's not. ISO is extra base production. SLG is batting average + extra bases. Roden has a high batting average. He has a very low ISO at the level where it counts (MLB). Roden has a career ISO of .102 at the MLB level. Martin has a career ISO of .090. Might as well be identical twins as far as I'm concerned. Roden hit 1 HR in 94 PA this year, which would be 6 HRs in 600 PA. Martin hit 3 HR in 358 PA or 5 HRs in 600 PA. Again, twins where it actually matters (MLB). Rodens bat speed is 69.7 mph. Martins is 69.1 mph. Power comes from bat speed. They're both far below average. The biggest difference between them is Roden tries to hit the ball hard 2x as often as Martin.
  20. bean5302
    As a ceiling you might expect to be able to get 2 WAR. Basically, use 2 roster spots for a barely adequate starting position player. I'm not sold on Roden's defense. He's a below average sprinter in MLB. 27.1 ft/sec this year. At least Martin has some range, in theory. Roden's arm is too weak to be optimally deployed in RF as well. Based on the fielding data this year 45 grade speed and probably dropping. 50 grade arm 40 grade instincts
  21. bean5302
    I'm saying trading Joe Ryan on his own cannot be expected to make a significant improvement to the Twins organization in any way for next year, and probably not for any future year because he has no meaningful trade value and cutting his salary makes no meaningful impact on what should be the payroll capacity of the team. I'm expecting Joe Ryan to pitch next year. That's something because teams pay players to play baseball. That's why Joe Ryan has trade value in the first place. The team acquiring him also would expect him to play baseball. Teams do not pay players to have surplus trade asset value. Trading just to trade is stupid. There needs to be an objective, and the objective should be to have a World Series winning team in my opinion. Trading Joe Ryan on his own cannot be expected to make a meaningful impact on what should be that objective. Not this year, next year or 10 years from now.
  22. bean5302
    Honestly, Roden has a pretty low ceiling. He's probably a lefty Austin Martin. There's no power Roden's profile, he doesn't barrel balls well and he doesn't hit line drives.
  23. bean5302
    Nah, we have the first baseman of the future already on the roster. Aaron Sabato put up top 5%, top 10%, top 20% a really high OPS in the minors this year and his xwOBA of .308 suggests he deserved to be top 5%, top 10%... better than average, not the absolute worst hitter in the International league so he's guaranteed for the future!
  24. bean5302
    This is stupid. Joe Ryan won't bring back any significant return. Cuts $12MM for a team that should be adding payroll, not cutting it. He's (at best) going to be viewed as a $25MM AAV pitcher. The QO is likely going to be gone next CBA. He's going to make $12MM. The most he'll bring back is an organizational 6-8ish guy. Certainly nobody who could be expected to help the Twins in a meaningful way. Teams don't trade quality MLB pieces for other quality MLB pieces. Trading Ryan on his own makes no substantial improvement to the Twins in any way. Again, this is just plain stupid.
  25. bean5302
    If anything, I'm less inclined to trust this team is headed in the right direction today as I was when Tom Pohlad took over in December of last year. Why? 2026 was more of the same. Same GM style. Same decisions. Low budget, team missed the playoffs, half-hearted deadline moves. This team is half-baked and I'm not enthusiastic about the goal of "making the playoffs." Who the **** cares? Making the playoffs means playing .500 ball now. The age old "competitive" goal from the Pohlad family.
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