bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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Lee's made significant improvements in his speed, but that only means he's still well below average rather than one of the worst runners in the game. Tough to count on his legs there.
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- game recap
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@Sherry Cerny your "Box Score" link went to the game preview so you might want to update that. https://www.mlb.com/gameday/dodgers-vs-twins/2026/06/24/823691/final/box
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- game recap
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Is Kala’i Rosario Back on Twins’ Prospect Map?
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Do other organizations even recognize his name? Beane: Eckerton? Phillips: I like Eckerton! Beane: You don't even know who Eckerton is! Replace Eckerton with Rosario Kala'i Rosario has been exposed to Rule 5 for two straight years and he's performing worse relative to his peers in AA than he was in 2025 (wRC+ 131 vs. 120) as Rosario has just gone passive at the plate. I think it's more likely the Twins want to see him vs. more polished pitchers to confirm his limitations before releasing him entirely. -
Is Kala’i Rosario Back on Twins’ Prospect Map?
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
He's a non-prospect. Same kind of rank as Kyler Fedko, but without the defensive versatility. Sure, AA is very hard. The level weeds out players with MLB level talent from players who have a likely ceiling below. Rosario certainly appears to be the latter. -
Could Brooks Lee Be Better With Just One Swing?
bean5302 replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If you look at Lee's expected HRs vs actual HRs it's been nuts this year (earlier especially). It's like he hits the ball juuuuuuuuust far enough to go over the fence in a specific spot at whatever stadium he's playing in. -
I saw him in the box score on mlb.com. I clicked on "Voth" thinking who is this??? Even MLB didn't have a page link for him. It just took me to the directory. Looks like they made him a page link today. That's who the Twins trot out to the mound to pitch against the best team in baseball? Yeah. (*&^ Falzoll.
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- game recap
- kendry rojas
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Trading Trevor Larnach Just Makes Too Much Sense
bean5302 replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins could easily part ways with 2 of 3 (Larnach, Wallner and Bell) and not have any roster issues. Moving all 3 probably wouldn't be an issue if Emma wasn't constantly using this thumb as a built in braking mechanism to stop his momentum on base paths. Trading Larnach makes the most sense because he shouldn't be part of the long term plans, he's hitting well, and he could potentially help a playoff caliber team with a need. -
For Brooks Lee, Everything Comes in Twos
bean5302 replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This year's version hasn't belonged, either. His luck stat is increased so far. Brooks Lee's last MLB plate appearances are less than 3 years away. He's not good enough. -
Keaschall is generating results, but I'm not optimistic about him longer term. A recent hot streak pushed his numbers way up, but I'm not seeing what looks like a sustainable approach. Comparing him to Arraez just because Arraez isn't a power hitter is nonsensical. Apart from his brutal rookie season, Arraez had solid defensive metrics at 2B by UZR or DRS. OAA hated him, but he's flipped that game on its head apparently learning how to exploit OAA. Anyway, Arraez purposely hits the way he does. Keaschall tries to make harder contact and fails. Though, I do remember a time early in Arraez's career he started swinging for the fence and his numbers tanked as he had warning track power, not HR power.
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For Brooks Lee, Everything Comes in Twos
bean5302 replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Brooks Lee is on pace to produce about 1.4 WAR this year in a full season, and that's with a lot of luck at the plate. 1.4 WAR is not enough to justify an every day player workload. The xwOBA remains dramatically lower than his actual production .313 (below average) vs. .276 (very poor). He's just very limited at the plate and in the field. -
Martin should be shipped to AAA and call up Roden. There's nothing left to prove in AAA for Roden, and Martin has proven everything he needs to prove at the MLB level. Larnach, Bell and Wallner occupy the same role. Imposter position player who is really a left handed DH. Bell is a switch hitter in name only just like Wallner and Larnach are corner outfielders in name only. Bell's a league average hitting DH from the right side of the plate over the course of his career, and he's certainly not better today than he was in his prime. At least one of Bell or Larnach honestly need to go before there's space for Wallner at this point. Roden, Buxton, Clemens should be the every day outfield unless Roden proves he's AAAA after another 150-200 PA.
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- matt wallner
- alan roden
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Mick Abel Suffers Injury Setback, Will Undergo MRI
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
MRI revealed inflammation. No structural damage, but the same issue he had before. Second opinion is being requested from Dr. Keith Meister. -
If Houston's bat looks like it has in Cedar Rapids again at AA this year, he'll be a top 10 MLB prospect. How exciting would that be?
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- minor league report
- walker jenkins
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Could Joe Ryan Realistically Win the AL Cy Young?
bean5302 replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Take a look at Joe Ryan's xFIP. His ERA isn't likely to stay where it is. If Ryan doesn't have regression to the mean with homers (i.e. continues to be lucky all year), and he doesn't fade like he generally has in the 2nd half, sure. He could totally win. Taj Bradley could also win it. -
There's a cheat code. Cans of Summit Twins Pils are $5.99 all the time, I think? Same with Bud and Bud Light. They're available at several locations in the stadium. That said, stadium prices are raising eyebrows from international travelers. Being absolutely gouged at games has become commonplace in the US. Target Field beer prices have been on the lower end of MLB for a few seasons. Not sure about now with the extra gouge happening.
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Heath insurance has some of the worst profitability of any major industry in the United States. Most carriers profit between 4-5% or so. Don't get me wrong, there's some SERIOUS BS involved in how they go about their process, but it's a very thin profit margin industry. That's why most carriers got out of it. Almost none of the once big insurance carriers still do the health insurance things. The exodus started in the early 2000s. The source of the cost of health care is the staff making 2-4x what their peers in other countries make, and drug companies, malpratice costs, and administrative/processing, TBH. Of course, doctors and nurses have to make 2-4x what their peers make because of the astronomical cost of secondary education, etc. It's a complex issue full of waste and corruption.
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Could Joe Ryan Realistically Win the AL Cy Young?
bean5302 replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If you need me to explain it to you, you won't have a good point of reference. Correct. Age based on when players were good: Carew - You're in your 70s+ Puckett, Viola - You're probably upper 50s+. Santana, Morneau - You're in your 40s. Mauer - Upper 30s Twins demographics are parents with little kids in their early 20s-30s. The average ticket buyer might have attended games to watched Santana, Morneau and Mauer in their prime. Maybe. It's been a LONG time since the Twins had a legitimate ace. Santana was traded over 18 years ago. Morneau's prime in a Twins jersey ended 16 years ago. Puckett last put on a game day jersey over 30 years ago. Viola 36 years ago. Fans of the game who understand dynamics generally start in their 20s+. Tack that onto the time frame and yep. A big portion of Twins fans have never watched a game played by one of those players, let alone played in their prime. -
For some background, the bartenders originally voted to unionize. There have been some mixed results which you'd expect from unions. Like tenure over merit where you can suck, but you're going to get the handful of good spots. I noticed this when my favorite concessions worker from the past several years was non-existent this year. They'd seemingly been replaced by less engaging team members. What a bummer. Also have a friend who works as a bartender at Target Field and has for years. They've also gotten the shaft in terms of assignments and cuts. That said, the real back-breaker for the bartenders (assuming for concessions staff too) is the happy hour and the POS systems with default tips. I've talked about this before, but defaulting to 18-20-22% or whatever when everything goes on a $2 happy hour absolutely destroyed concessions income. Beers were $2, people were getting 2-3 before the game and then they're done. Tipping $0.40 vs. tipping $3.00 is a killer. The lousy attendance and semi-automated check out hurts, too. I'm not embarrassed to say that I do not tip when I have to check myself out. That said, somebody has to pay the concessions worker to stand there and help every other customer because the POS system sucks eggs. The number of concessions workers who still need to be present because the kiosks are junk results in limited staffing savings. That said, attendance is sooooooooo bad half the venues or more routinely shut down by the 7th inning or never open in the first place. I guess the semi-automated kiosks are the only way to keep options available later. I also hate the whole predatory, charitable non-profit worker scenario. Those workers rarely know what they're doing so the fan experience is pretty miserable. If Delaware North, or whomever, wants to donate to charity, just do it. Don't make profits off donations. It's gross. Of course people want health insurance. It costs $80 bajillion dollars for health care in the United States so health insurance costs $82 bajillion. The cost of health care, and the underlying reasons it's so outrageously expensive need to be addressed.
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Could Joe Ryan Realistically Win the AL Cy Young?
bean5302 replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Joe Ryan Ace! Sure. Every year until the second half. Ryan's xFIP is 3.43. He's certainly better than I expected him to become, but I'll continue to be highly skeptical of his "Ace" status he earns. Or Buxton MVP. Since Twins fans pretty much don't know what an Cy Young or MVP candidate actually looks like. -
Wallner after his first 5 games in AAA .318/.392/.664 OPS 1.055 wRC+ 163, 8.3% BB, 25.0% K Seems pretty apparent Wallner is trying a more contact heavy approach at the plate with a drop off in his walk rate. It's also apparent the Twins have no interest in him on the 26 man and don't consider him a viable MLB player. He's IL replacement depth at this point. I think the Twins should probably **** or get off the toilet. Trade him or play him at DH. Maybe they want to keep him as a replacement for Larnach, who will likely have some trade value at the deadline.
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- minor league report
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Ryan was under team control for 2027 already (he's Arb 2 this year). It wasn't an extension, it was essentially an agreement to avoid arbitration. Not sure exactly what the two sides were thinking except to agree upon an amount which would be easy to accept without negotiation or a hearing for next time. Neat idea, mutual options virtually never work out in practice though. 100% agree on trading Joe Ryan if the Twins are out of it. His once sky high value is dropping with his team control period, and if he gets injured all of his value completely evaporates. Might as well try to sell other GMs on the idea the competitive balance pick might be around in 2027 still, as well. There's so much risk from a potential lock out, etc.
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- joe ryan
- ryan jeffers
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Byron Buxton Has Become an AL MVP Contender
bean5302 replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
fWAR, bWAR Last 10 MVPs for the AL *led the league 2015 - 8.7, 7.4 - Josh Donaldson 2016 - 8.6*, 10.4* - Mike Trout* 2017 - 7.7, 8.1* - Jose Altuve* 2018 - 10.2*, 10.7* - Mookie Betts* 2019 - 7.6, 7.9 - Mike Trout 2021 - 8.0*, 9.0* - Shohei Ohtani* 2022 - 11.1*, 10.8* - Aaron Judge* 2023 - 8.9*, 9.9* - Shohei Ohtani* 2024 - 11.3*, 10.9* - Aaron Judge* 2025 - 10.1*, 9.7* - Aaron Judge* 2026 Byron Buxton pace (162 / 76) * 2.8 fWAR, 2.7 bWAR = 6.0, 5.8. No MVP since Justin Morneau in 2006 had an bWAR at or below Byron Buxton's current pace. Buxton is not a legitimate MVP candidate as it stands right now. He'll finish FAR behind the MVP winner in voting if there isn't a dramatic increase in his production.

