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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I don't think they "need" to bring in this depth, but they feel they might have potentially identified a market where they can produce value. Guys like Eeles, Dobnak, McCusker, etc. have produced talent which has impressed at least at the upper minors levels with no real investment. With drafted players through round 10 getting at least $187k in terms of "slot," Indy leagues represent a pool of semi-proven talent for dirt cheap where the Twins might be able to strike gold.
  2. bean5302
    In regard to the Twins and my thoughts on their playoff chances, I just have no idea with this team. The pitching is going to regress a lot. Fangraphs has the team projected at 86 wins right now, and that's rarely enough to make the playoffs. What typically happens is a few teams make a second half run as they bolster while some weaker teams sell off. I don't anticipate the Twins making any significant changes at the deadline at all. The team won't be under new ownership by then. So much of what happens with the Twins depends on other teams both inside and outside of the division. I'd give the Twins a 40% shot maybe?
  3. bean5302
    BaseballReference's latest formulas for WAR are a mystery to me. They don't seem to follow any obvious logic so I don't trust them much at this point, but I'm pretty sure you'll find your answer there. BBRef doesn't believe in the Twins' production because of their underlying run generation formulas.
  4. bean5302
    Not even close. Not even remotely in the ballpark. You want to get real? Festa + Matthews + Jenkins + Keaschall + Prielipp Something like that would be fair-ish from a value standpoint. Skenes is +126 in BTV right now, and typically, you pay a little more of a premium when you're sending multiple players for a single great one. Jenkins is probably overrated at +65 Festa, Matthews and Keaschall were each around +20 with Prielipp as a +5-10ish.
  5. bean5302
    That's great. If he can trust the players to manage themselves, I guess all he does is fill out lineup sheets. Seems like the Twins can improve their books a little by getting Baldelli off of them?
  6. bean5302
    Probably a few things going on with Lewis. Lewis didn't just hit well for 1/2 a year. He was a monster. He was hitting breaking balls, fastballs and covering a ton of the strike zone. The one year wonder guys almost always do it off pure luck despite glaring weaknesses. The Danny Santana's of the world, rocking their .400 BABIP despite 50% ground ball rates. Royce Lewis began that way in 2023, but within a few weeks, Lewis was even better and earning it. His health and potential mechanics are the issues. He's going to be elite when he's on the field and healthy. Not sure that will happen a whole lot, but Lewis didn't get his success through the batters equivalent smoke and mirrors. I assume the above comment about two players treated differently are Eddie Julien and Royce Lewis. Julien always had glaring weaknesses against breaking pitches and major portions of the plate. Julien was always following a razor thin path in terms of sustainability, and he's going to need to make major adjustments to his approach in order to succeed. He's also going to need to believe in the process.
  7. bean5302
    I don't know as I agree with our first rounders being injury prone in general under Falvey. 2017 - Royce Lewis (Yes) 2017 - Brent Rooker (No) 2018 - Trevor Larnach (No, but started off as a yes in MLB) 2019 - Keoni Cavaco (No) 2020 - Aaron Sabato (No) 2021 - Chase Petty (No) 2021 - Noah Miller (No) 2022 - Brooks Lee (Yes) 2023 - Walker Jenkins (Yes) 2024 - Charlee Soto (No) 2024 - Kaelyn Culpepper (No)
  8. bean5302
    That's an understatement. They're considered one of the weakest teams to have ever won a World Series. I'm not saying the 1987 Twins team was great, just that a bunch of good luck and unexpectedly great seasons all together can result in a championship. Just not something anybody should expect. Now the 1991 team was great. It also relied on a bunch of career years together. Tapani, Erickson, Morris, Aguilera, Mack, Knoblauch, etc etc etc.
  9. bean5302
    Watching how Jenkins is impacted in terms of athleticism going forward will be important. This is the second season in a row where he's missed 3 months of training/working out with a leg injury. Royce Lewis was once blistering fast, now he can barely outrun anybody. Jenkins really needs to find a way to stay healthy.
  10. bean5302
    That "debt" is not guaranteed. It hasn't been earned yet so it's not debt. Trade, death, retirement, violations of player conduct, etc. can all void those potential future expenses. Ohtani would be a different story as he has earned some of the contract which is deferred, but those deferrals were likely pre-funded. The debt in this case, as was mentioned above, includes other Pohlad Company investments and businesses where loans were taken against the Twins. It's not like businesses (and people) don't do this kind of stuff all the time so I don't get the rage in the comment further above, but it's a major sticking point because the Pohlads want to roll the debt into the purchase which adds $425MM to the real cost of the team. Like trading in a car which has a bunch of negative equity, but the the owner wants full trade in value and for the dealer to pay the loan off.
  11. bean5302
    Hrbek, Gagne, Brunansky, Puckett, Viola, Berenguer all had the best or close to the best years of their careers. I think you're way overestimating the talent level of this rotation based on recency bias.
  12. bean5302
    MiLB contract = not rostered.
  13. bean5302
    Eeles played 27 games at SS last year.
  14. bean5302
    Gabriel Gonzalez fell way down the prospect list last year where he was hobbled up quite a bit. It's true that he's clearly chunked up a ton from the 165lbs he was listed at (doubt he's under 215 now and at 5'11" listed), but there are plenty of of slow or poor corner outfielders who thrive on contact rather than game power like ahem, Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff did. Gonzalez's hot start at AA is very highly encouraging. It's great for him and the Twins. What I see from his plate appearances was okay yesterday. First at bat, double right on the first pitch in the upper/away part of the zone. Second at bat, 3 pitches real close to the same location, 2 fouls, and another double. Third at bat, promptly plunked. Fourth at bat was the interesting one. Pitches 2, 3 and 7 were all pretty close to his earlier doubles. You can see the at bat should have ended on pitch 5 with a strikeout looking, but he kept the plate appearance alive for another couple pitches pulling off a single. Final at bat was first pitch for ball 1 (caught the low/away corner, should have been a strike), then promptly swung at and singled on a pitch pretty much in the exact location as his single from the previous at bat. Not sure why the pitchers are working Gonzalez so hard on the far side of the zone, but they were really pounding it there yesterday. Gonzalez has so far shown good plate discipline in AA in a very limited sample size. He's limited in ceiling due to his conditioning, and I do find it concerning to be struggling with condition at his age, but I think it's more of a yellow flag than a red one.
  15. bean5302
    Radke was lights out in the 2nd half. Pitched to a 2.84 ERA in his last 10 games. Bonser was very good in the 2nd half after he was recalled as well, but not as good as Liriano who Bonser was tasked with replacing in the rotation. That 2006 team was absolutely loaded. If Liriano doesn't go down, the Twins had a good shot at winning the World Series.
  16. bean5302
    I have it on good authority from many experts here on Twins Daily that no team ever loses money... Actually, I don't think the negative cash flow is a problem at all because it's easy to wipe $25MM from the payroll. I suspect it's only an issue for buyers who don't understand the market. The cash flow/operating income for MLB teams are not usually all that positive according to the published estimated numbers.
  17. bean5302
    While I agree he might do well with an assignment to get his swing back, but the truth is most successful teams the Twins are saying they want to emulate let younger guys like Lewis play every day and struggle through the terrible points. This team has handled Lewis extremely poorly in my opinion. It might be they're trying to bridge the failures of management at this point. I'm not sure what's eating Lewis. Might be just injury fear at this point or mechanics. I'm not sure AAA will help with that because he wasn't hitting in AAA when the Twins called up him up, clearly not ready.
  18. bean5302
    More info at SI https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/twins-sale-gaining-steam-potential-buyers-reportedly-touring-target-field I get the feeling the Pohlads are gripping the fact fans are done with them owning the Twins and they're more willing to negotiate the price. If the family comes to the realization they're not going to be able to turn things around with their name on the franchise, it puts them in a big bind.
  19. bean5302
    Dehydration can significantly impact muscle strains, muscle pain, aggravate concussions and trigger migraines. It was a brutal scorcher today, and it's fine with me if they didn't want to stress test the heck out of Wallner's hammy or Buxton's noggin. Seems like Wallner's bat is ready, and it sounds like Buxton is expected to join the team for the Seattle series. I think they should be getting both guys back. It wasn't a terrible start for Lopez, and the bats put up 68 runs in 13 games over the streak (5.23 per game) which is at the top of the league with a bunch of journeyman AAAA or hobbled up guys in the lineup. That's obviously not sustainable. Win some. Lose some.
  20. bean5302
    and watch him hit 17 home runs in Safeco... er T-Mobile Park while staring down Mitch Garver and mouthing... "What, you can't do this here? Man, that sucks!" Something like that.
  21. bean5302
    The pitching staff has has basically been universally at their career bests when the lineup was a catastrophe. A bunch of career years lining up can happen (see 1987, 1991) over a full season, but I feel pretty confident the batters are going to need to figure it out and score more runs steadily for the Twins to make the playoffs, let alone win 100 games. I find the second option there to be pretty far-fetched right now.
  22. bean5302
    1. Make it illegal to ask about pre-existing conditions so, essentially, universal guaranteed insurability. 2. Create a "government plan" which is universal and require private health insurers to offer the exact plan. Cap this plan's cost more aggressively than the 80/20 ratio currently required due to its simplicity. 3. Include automatic health insurance enrollment in the government plan in unemployment compensation if the unemployed person isn't already covered elsewhere. 4. Require employers to provide an employer sponsored health insurance plan or contributions to private insurance in addition to wages through some sort of insurance savings plan or whatever. Like an HSA. 5. If an person does not have health insurance and racks up medical debt, the government pays the debt to the provider using a medicaid fee schedule, then collects from the delinquent individual through the IRS/wage garnishment. That's what the AHCA should have looked like IMHO.
  23. bean5302
    I see Ryan as 10th in fWAR 12th in FIP , but tied with 2 other guys for 7th in bWAR and in sole possession of ERA+ just ahead of 2 guys who are 1,000% more likely to make the team (deGrom and Skubal). Ryan's on the cusp, but if things were voted on today, I doubt he makes it because of so many big names around his performance.
  24. bean5302
    He whiffs way too much in the zone for my taste. His pitch identification skills seem a bit lacking. When I look at his plate approach pitch by pitch, it just seems like there are endless ways for an MLB caliber pitcher to exploit him. I need to go back and see how MLB pitchers on rehab assignments have potentially pitched him.
  25. bean5302
    I wonder what the Twins intend with Pierson Ohl? Past due for AAA now, but he gives up too many hits to project well. Seems like he's staying in the zone way, way too much. 71.2% zone rate here in 52 pitches, 37 were in the zone. In MiLB, seems like Ohl's stuff is good enough to generate a lot of foul balls from pitches in the zone, but it actually just leads to him being surprisingly inefficient considering how much he pounds the zone. Those foul balls won't stay foul in MLB, either. He'll get himself destroyed throwing 71% in the zone, though Ohl's locations look pretty good most of the time. Should be able to find some space in the AAA rotation by bumping Raya and/or Lewis.
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