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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Yeah, that never happens with the Twins except guys like Zebby Matthews where that literally just happened.
  2. bean5302
    Blue dotted line is velocity. There are more than a couple articles out there which paint a very bleak outlook for Ober regaining velocity. Theoretically possible, but regaining lost velocity past age 30 isn't common. He'd be expected to naturally start declining velocity, even if his mechanics/hip were great.
  3. bean5302
    Firing Baldelli and hiring Shelton is just some meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Shelton will be another Falvey puppet who will exercise the ever changing failures of Falvey's philosophies. I don't understand why this signals a rebuild. The Pirates have been run absolutely nothing like the Twins. A manager at the MLB level teaching fundamental baseball practices makes no sense. If players haven't been developed properly in the minors, it's on the GM/PoBO (Falvey). Trying to fix all the poor fundamentals at the MLB level is an impossible task. The best we can hope for is an inclination to try reverse the bad habits the Twins system has instilled.
  4. bean5302
    In a word, "nope" is almost certainly the answer. Virtually no MLB starter can be successful throwing 89mph fastballs, and Ober was in that range towards the end of 2025. He'll be in his age 31 season next year, too, so expectations the velo even makes it back to 90mph and stays there is a little dicey. Ober was throwing 91-92mph in 2024. That's where he needs to be to be successful. The amount of time an MLB hitter has to react and read pitches when throwing sub-90 makes it very unlikely pitchers can be successful in this era.
  5. bean5302
    Deleware North handles concessions. Many of the concession stands are staffed largely by volunteers for some reason.
  6. bean5302
    Klein is a23 at AAA, exit velo was a little higher than I'd like at 88.4, but the BABIP of .373 was the ERA killer. Gave up a lot of fly balls, but generated a lot of pop ups too. Bottom line, age 23 and AAA with a 28.2% K rate. Keep him until you know more asbout what you've got. Looks like he was 94-96mph on his 4 seamer in his last start. He's a 5 pitch guy with 4 seam, sinker, cutter, curve and changeup. Tonkin, McCusker, Keirsey are all easy cuts. Gasper, Julien, Miranda are pretty easy too.
  7. bean5302
    I don't have much faith in Derek Falvey's budget priority decision making.
  8. bean5302
    I'd be surprised if the Twins non-tendered Larnach, to be honest. At $4.7MM estimated, he's still pretty dang cheap. A heck of a lot less expensive than a guy like Rhys Hoskins if Larnach can play 1B or still cheap enough to be a 1 WAR DH. The reasonably priced offseason free agent options just look pretty weak.
  9. bean5302
    https://www.mlb.com/rockies/video/2016-draft-bo-bichette-2b-c625727583 I stand corrected on Lewis playing 2B previously. I thought he stated he had never played on that side of the field even in high school. Sounds like I was mistaken or he lied.
  10. bean5302
    Pretty simple. Go back to being a strictly platoon bat. Last year, Larnach was a full time player who had 118 plate appearances against lefties where he put up an OPS of .608 or wRC+ 71. Larnach put up a wRC+ 110 vs. righties in 2025. Good enough to be in the margin of error. It's clear he made some adjustments to his plate approach or swing as he flipped his fastball vs. changeup performance on its head. In 2024, like previous seasons, Larnach was strongly shielded from lefties with only 23 plate appearances. As far as a rebound, Larnach has basically been replacement level across his entire career save for a career year last year where he still wasn't really worth a full time position because must be platooned to be effective and he hasn't been able to handle a defensive position.
  11. bean5302
    As noted above, the Twins are not a small market team, and they haven't been run like a small market team since the opening of Target Field. For all the bellyaching from fans about the cheap Pohlads, the team hasn't run an opening day total payroll under $100MM in the last decade. https://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm The Astros are a large market team who committed to a multi-year complete overhaul and rebuild, and it paid massive dividends, but they have enormous revenue capabilities to sustain long term success with minimal rebuilding now that they've righted the ship. They're not a good comp for Minnesota. I think it remains to be seen how the true welfare franchises like Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay will strategize into the future as the larger market profitable teams like the Yankees and Dodgers get more and more agitated. If we look back at World Series rebuild teams and their successes (last rebuild): 2025 Toronto Blue Jays (2019) 2024 No Rebuild Teams 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks (2022), Texas Rangers (2021) 2022 Philadelphia Phillies (2018), Houston Astros (2016) 2021 Atlanta Braves (2019), Houston Astros (2016) It's pretty clear a non-large market team almost certainly needs to have a rebuild if they want to aim for the World Series. How big the rebuild/retool needs to be is pretty much going to be determined based on the market size of the team. Probably something like: Huge market (Dodgers, Yankees, etc) no rebuild needed Large market (1-2 years) Mid market (2-3 years) Small market (3-5 years) The competitive window once the build process starts is shorter for smaller market teams as well. Something like: Large market (5+ years) Mid market (3-4 years) Small market (2-3 years)
  12. bean5302
    26 guys on a roster. 6 years of team control. that's 4.3 new guys a year required. Some come from free agency, some come from extensions, some come from trades, but they all need to come from somewhere.
  13. bean5302
    All trades should be judged based on actual results vs. expectations. All of them. Every single one of them because the front office gets paid millions of dollars annually to be smarter than fans.
  14. bean5302
    While you may feel your personal opinion is better than BTV, that tool has been consistently accurate in determining what other teams are willing to pay. Right now, Ober has a 16.6 surplus value. In line with probably an org #3-5 prospect, something in the borderline top 100. It's a catastrophic decline from where he was at the beginning of 2025 (on par with Joe Ryan at +50ish). Twins fans are consistently inaccurate in their assessment of the team's talent, overvaluing the players they like and undervaluing the players they don't. Given Ober's modest value today, I don't see him as a good candidate to be traded. The Twins are better off hanging into him, hoping he rebounds and trying to cash out mid season, IMHO.
  15. bean5302
    Winokur is going to look awkward. He's super tall and lanky which is going to make his movement look slow and awkward as his stride length and speed will be dramatically different from your typical 6'0" SS. Being 6'6" tall means he's going to need to stay very low so he can overcome the leverage his height will have in inertia. I'm glad to see everybody at TD has already slotted every SS prospect in as a future MVP and all that, but it's pretty rare to see them work out in reality. Especially with a team that doesn't know how to coach fundamental defense.
  16. bean5302
    Willi Castro can stand at a lot of positions. Doesn't mean he can effectively play them. He's also struggled against lefties throughout his career. He's above average as a hitter, but really he only hits well as a lefty in his good seasons (he had an elevated ISO this past year against lefties which makes his 100PA sample size look good)
  17. bean5302
    A.I. response? I'm only asking because if a player is drafted and signed, they're almost guaranteed to be playing in the minors at some point and the variance between 17.6% and 10.0% is impossible as a result.
  18. bean5302
    Then no team should have a hitting coach by this kind of position. They don't matter. The hitting coach plays a fundamental role in aligning the organizational philosophy and talent with an action plan to get the most out of the talent. I think Popkins did exactly what Falvey asked of him, then he was essentially fired because the front office's hypothesis was poor. Not saying Popkins was the greatest ever or something, but he's certainly chucking eggs all over the faces of the Twins' management.
  19. bean5302
    Why are Twins fans like this? Bichette was drafted as a 2B. Bichette continued to play a little 2B in the minors. Bichette didn't get thrown under the bus by the Blue Jays. Lewis had never played on the 2B side of the field, and for the record, Lewis DID play 2B when he was assigned the position. He didn't say he wouldn't play 2B. Max Kepler didn't say he wouldn't play CF. I just don't get why TD posters need to make this stuff up.
  20. bean5302
    I tend to look at things this way. Teams probably need to find 2-3 every day 26-man roster players per year to stay competitive, and the majority of that needs to come from the draft.
  21. bean5302
    I've gotten this question a lot when I review Twins drafts. When it comes to answering how the Twins fare vs other organizations, many hundreds of hours of work is the answer. Unless there is a tool out there (should be proprietary versions for MLB organizations at least) https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358010336_Major_League_Draft_WARs_An_Analysis_of_Wins_Above_Replacement_in_Player_Selection
  22. bean5302
    We'll give him honorary "Life Most Destroyed" by playing for the Twins. Honestly, Nishioka's experience was truly brutal. Fall from stardom, marriage fell apart, lack of manager support, horribly injured early in his time on a dirty play and spent the rest of his time in the minors. He forefitted the rest of his contract in shame for having not held up his end of the bargain and slinked back to Japan.
  23. bean5302
    Leo Cardenas 1969-1971 (3.0yrs) = 10.9 fWAR, 11.1 bWAR Carlos Correa 2022-2025 (3.5yrs) = 10.8* fWAR, 10.4bWAR *added 0.2 fWAR for 2025 consistent with bWAR ratio of season WAR for Twins vs. Astros
  24. bean5302
    Everything depends on strategy. I don't really trust Falvey can build an effective one. Quotes from owner representative Joe Pohlad suggest there could be a rebuild coming in which case, yes, Joe Ryan 100% SHOULD be traded for whatever the team can get, not just "made available" On the other hand, ownership statements carry absolutely zero credibility now. It was already weak since the Pohlads just simply will not do their job and hold the front office accountable. Nobody in professional gets the kind of leash Falvey has gotten. It's absolutely ludicrous a GM/President of Baseball Operations or whatever the heck you want to call him can be given so many resources, so much support, so much inherited talent and then produce nothing noteworthy year in and year out in what has been the weakest division in the game for a decade. If Ryan is traded, the trade needs to happen in December so Falvey doesn't screw it up yet again by overpricing, then waiting too long before finding himself out of suitors who can really pay. I don't think Falvey has the talent for his position so I believe ownership will need to provide him a specific deadline to move Ryan or Falvey absolutely will fail again like he did with other valuable, controllable, established talent like Dozier, Kepler and Polanco. The risk of holding onto Ryan into camp reporting date is gargantuan.
  25. bean5302
    I'd agree he looked like he was starting to regain his swagger. His sprint speed still being 45 grade instead of 70 grade on the season suggests he's not quite all back yet. It's going to take a great offseason and hopefully his confidence will come back. It takes a while after injuries like that (or even smaller ones) before the confidence in your body returns.
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