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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Across Cruz's career, his bat is significantly worse in high leverage situations. I'm not sure what a "rallying presence" is, is that like when he fixed Miguel Sano? LOL
  2. bean5302
    Dig deep enough and get a small enough sample and you can make anybody look good. April happened. It's true. If you look back, there was an April, 2022 in the calendar. Pretending it didn't happen and pretending last year's fall off didn't happen just so you can bolster the case of a player you like doesn't make your actual position more valid. As a side note, Cruz's "June" EV would also be the lowest EV in his career. Cruz is 100% definitely aging. He is not as good as he was and he's in decline almost across the board over the past several years, actually.
  3. bean5302
    Cruz is looking awfully like time has caught up to him as he's a month away from age 42. He's posting his worst numbers against fastballs in any full season in his career, he's hitting more ground balls, generating less hard contact and swinging at more pitches out of the zone. In addition, his average and maximum exit velocity is the lowest Statcast has ever recorded, though the max exit velocity is still elite. Aside from that, the Twins have plenty of bat only guys which is a big reason the Twins didn't re-sign Cruz as a free agent.
  4. bean5302
    Easier to knock in runs when people are on base. Arraez is batting .406 with a .984 OPS with runners on and .413 with a 1.037 OPS with RISP. RBI is a completely, totally, utterly useless stat for evaluating individual player performance.
  5. bean5302
    Dude, same throw, same distance, same leverage, one throw took significantly longer. Scouting reports also say Steer doesn't have the arm for SS and question him at 3B. My math was hosed because I wasn't using the hypotenuse like I should have been using (as if 2nd base didn't even exist...), but it was hosed in essentially the same way for everybody. I am NOT using frame rates because that wouldn't be a good idea as they may not be reliable due to file compression which Mr. Expert you linked to isn't accounting for. In addition, we're not talking about an approximate 55 foot throw here, it's over double that so the margin for error decreases. I timed the throws 3 times each until I got 3 nearly identical times.
  6. bean5302
    My bad, you're absolutely right. I thought those throwing speeds looked stupid low, lol. Since the bases are actually square rather than a diamond, the hypotenuse is going to be a^2 + b^2 = c^2 or 8100 + 8100 = c^(1/2) = 127ft, give or take because of the base width. Steer throwing 125 ft / 1.18 / 1.47 = 72mph Machado throwing 135 ft / 0.98 / 1.47 = 94mph Machado throwing 145 ft / 1.27 = 78mph Arenado throwing from knees 135 ft / 1.58 / 1.47 = 58mph Steer 72mph vs. Machado 94mph on essentially the same throw. MLB SS's should be in the mid/upper 80s.
  7. bean5302
    Astros 47-27 .635 (103 win pace) in a mediocre division. Yankees 56-20 .737 (119 win pace) in a very tough division. Starting Rotation Rank WAR / ERA / FIP Yankees #1 = 8.3 / #2 = 3.02 / #2 = 3.43 Astros #5 = 7.1 / #3 = 3.16 / #9 = 3.76 Relievers Rank WAR / ERA / FIP Yankees #3 = 3.6 / #1t = 2.78 / #3 = 3.25 Astros #8 = 2.4 / #1t = 2.78 / #5 = 3.38 Batting Rank WAR / OPS / wRC+ / RBI Yankees #1 = 15.4 / #2 = .757 / #1 = 117 / #1 = 358 Astros #3 = 14.1 / #7 = .738 / #3 = 114 / #15 = 310 Fielding Rank UZR/150 / DEF Yankees #8 = 2.5 / #6 = 11.0 Astros #2 = 6.3 / #1 = 23.0 The Yankees have arguably the best rotation in baseball, the best bullpen in baseball, the best lineup in baseball, and are well above average defensively. Aaron Judge is having an excellent season, but he's not the reason the Yankees look to be by far the best team in MLB this year. I'm no fan of the Yankees, but they're absolutely mowing through everybody and it's easy to see why.
  8. bean5302
    I expect the Marlins will be dealing at the deadline, they have a huge glut of pitching and they're desperate for MLB ready outfielder talent because they want to compete now. While I'd be shocked if they dealt Alcantara, Lopez would be a valid target. Lopez's drop in velocity is a little red flag, but the results are still there. Larnach, Kepler and Celestino would all likely turn some heads down in Florida.
  9. bean5302
    Steers arm looks pretty dang good to me there, but I timed it at 1.18-1.21 sec. Assuming the throw was 90 feet (a little inside 3rd, but a little back), that's only 50mph average. In the video below at 0:09 Machado makes a similar plant/throw, but probably more like 100 feet and I timed it at 0.98-1.01 sec. That's 70mph average. Machado makes another play at 0:25 from maybe 110 feet at 1.27-1.30sec, right about 59mph average. Essentially, Steer's arm is no where close to as good as the top arms at 3B. See 1:01 where Arenado makes a 100 foot throw in 1.58sec from his knees, just a tick slower than Steer's planted throw.
  10. bean5302
    Have to check back near the end of the season, unless the Twins trade Correa and the Twins are 3 games up on Cleveland and 6 games up on Chicago with only 2 weeks until the All Star break so it seems like a trade is getting pretty unlikely. Lewis' recovery will be considered in the equation, undoubtedly. If the Twins feel like Palacios/Steer/Gordon could technically cover the SS position for a couple months without hurting the club too much. Every free agent signing is a white flag for a team. A failure to develop players internally leading to an overpay in the free agency market.
  11. bean5302
    Sorry you hate Nishioka so much the mere mention of him dooms a player to futility. In any case, Kirilloff refuses to take walks at the MLB level, and had poor walk rates at almost every other stop in the minors. I think that's a valid concern because Kirilloff has a big hole in his game already as he will never provide significant defensive value. If Kirilloff won't take walks, he's not going to get good pitches to hit and he's not going to feast off mistakes at the MLB level. I think everybody should see where this is going. No matter how glowing the scouting reports and writeups here at TD may be, it doesn't mean he's impervious to criticism.
  12. bean5302
    Steer is scouted with average speed and an unimpressive arm, neither of which bodes well for him covering shortstop. Still, Steer has played a handful of games at short this year, but the underlying numbers are pretty awful. Tough to say how the Twins view his potential to cover the position, even in a pinch.
  13. bean5302
    Communication style is critical when you're trying to get people on board with your ideas or changes to the way they do things. It important to make people feel like there's a better way rather than making people feel like they were doing it the wrong way. Johnson clearly has a great rapport with the players and a leadership style that gets players to buy in. It's a great asset, but it's not a unique one. The system Johnson put into place should let the results be continued.
  14. bean5302
    Trivino is probably a major hard luck candidate, but as previously mentioned, he's allowing a 40% line drive rate and both his changeup and four seam fastball have been driven hard with exit velocities north of 92mph on each. Trivino's BB/9 and K/9 rates are being elevated by the BABIP issue. Simply put, Trivino is seeing more batters per inning than he probably should. The K% and BB% are good, but sometimes the hits are just a factor of the pitches not working rather than hard luck. Tough to say here.
  15. bean5302
    I really enjoy watching Arraez bat. It's worth watching because you know something will happen. It's the polar opposite of a lot of 3 outcome hitters (really 2 outcomes most of the time) where all you hear and see is the pop and pitches hitting the catchers glove. Either it's a no contact swinging strike, a strike looking or a ball. Wheeeeee!! Exciting!
  16. bean5302
    Honestly, I just don't like Kirilloff's stance/swing process. It's really open with his right foot placed further towards 1B than his left foot. In addition, his leg kick seems to result in his right foot landing even further back, sort of like Tsuyoshi Nishioka's left handed swing, using his left hip to rotate his body rather than his core. This feels like it would place a great deal of strain on his hip, knee and ankle and seems like it wastes bat speed to me. In any case, I'm not bullish on Kirilloff right now. When Nick Gordon draws more walks than you and I see what seems like way too many strike three swings where you end the swing on your knees, it's not a good omen. I'm not sure if Kirilloff is pressing (seems like he is), but his walk rate has been pretty poor at other stops prior to AAA this year.
  17. bean5302
    I think it's awfully tough to predict how veteran contracts are going to be impacted by the new CBA. A lot of money just got funneled to the younger guys and it will impact the veteran contracts. There's only "x" amount of money owners are going to spend. Aside from that, I utterly fail to see how this happens... Jose Berrios 7yrs $131 MM Marcus Stroman 3yrs $71 MM They were extremely similar comps. Ironically, they're both struggling this year. I'll hazard a guess on Sonny Gray. An extension voiding the option = 3yrs $65 MM. I certainly wouldn't want to offer it to him. Gray's velocity continues to slide and he's seeing what seems to be a trend of allowing more fly balls. Extending Gray feels very, very much like Phil Hughes right now to me.
  18. bean5302
    I've had the Red Cow sliders 3 or 4 times now. The first time I had them, there was no mustard (early in the season) and subsequent times I've had them, there's been mustard, but the beer mustard wasn't acidic enough (or in a great enough quantity?) to cut through all that richness. I'd definitely go with the cone over the helmet. Seems like the helmet dishes (nachos/soft serve) aren't a great deal to me... but maybe that's because the helmet cost cuts in to the dish, haha. I was going to sample the LaTapia adobo tacos the other day, but alas, they're still having problems with TwinsPay. Sorry, but with every other stand having figured it out, the problems are now on the vendors.
  19. bean5302
    Bummer you had a bad experience with it. I've had it a few times and as far as I can remember, it's always been good.
  20. bean5302
    The job was undoubtedly a take it or leave it situation. Johnson took what is speculated as an enormous pay increase for a role involving an undoubtedly superior work/life balance. There is no possible way to fairly criticize Johnson for what is a decision that totally makes sense for him.
  21. bean5302
    Pitchers are voted in by players, managers and coaches. My guess is nobody on the Twins pitching staff makes it. Duran is probably the closest candidate, but with 1/2 the WAR of other relievers and a ranking around 20 for WAR/ERA/FIP, I don't see it happening.
  22. bean5302
    Plenty of stuff on the site about Contreras. Power bat outfielder range-y enough to cover CF in a tight pinch. Once a solid prospect who looked like he was flamed out at the plate in 2019. He came back in 2021 and suddenly started to hit more like he was expected to hit. Age 27 non-prospect at this point. Pretty high K rate, okay BB rate, limited projectability.
  23. bean5302
    In a word? No.
  24. bean5302
    Even if you believe the Twins are not built to compete or that they couldn't compete, there would have to be a team in the AL Central who was clearly built to lead the way, and there isn't right now. The 1987 Twins team was mediocre and they won the World Series. It's a long shot, but until the Twins look to be well out of the division lead, Correa is not going to be traded. This is probably the 10th "Trade Correa" topic I've seen in the past couple weeks. Aside from that, the Cardinals have an excellent value shortstop right now... Tommy Edman has 3.4 fWAR. Nolan Gorman, a 22yr old rookie is delivering big time at 2B as well. The Cardinals have no real need for Correa. The Giants might be a legitimate destination, with Brandon Crawford struggling at the plate and moved to the 10 day IL, but Crawford has another year left at $16MM on his contract. I could potentially see a Correa for Crawford and Kyle Harrison trade or something like that. It's unlikely Correa (at $35MM and a rental) brings back great talent on his own.
  25. bean5302
    Sano's bad streaks have become deeper, longer, and more frequent as he's aged. There comes a point where players don't come back out of those "slumps." Sano is due for that to happen any time now. The Twins can either roll the dice, potentially lose other players or cut a poor performing veteran who is maybe 50/50 to ever step onto the field in an MLB game again after this year. You know what I would like to see? The Twins not only DFA Sano, but deny his compensation because he violated the clause requiring him to be in shape to play baseball. Sano is the one who owes the Twins, not vice versa.
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