bean5302

When it comes to Nick Gordon, it's not possible to understate how very unexpected health issues have impacted him. He's listed at 160lbs, but I suspect he's a bit heavier than that now. At one point, Gordon was nearing 180 before losing 30lbs due to digestive tract issues and then COVID. It's obvious he can still gain a few pounds of muscle and the strength which comes with it. Gordon will likely never be an above average bat, but any player who can carve out a multi-year MLB career has been very successful.

In the way I mean? As in, it's tough to get reliable data from small sample sizes for specific players. Keeping in mind, nobody cares if a pitcher gets worse. If the pitcher has a 0.00 ERA/FIP in the 1st TTO, it's not relevant if their ERA is 1.00 the 2nd time or 3.00 the third time. They're still better than the alternative (middle reliever.)

How dare anybody not vote a player I like as a starter on the ASG... even if that player is less valuable and on an unpopular team? Arraez is borderline for being in the All Star Game with other worthy candidates at first base, and Arraez certainly does not deserve to start. Batting average as the reason Arraez should start over a player with 50% more value added? Jeez. It's not like France isn't batting .320...

Who knows? Sometimes guys are uncoachable until the end of their career flashes before their eyes. The move to Baltimore had to have been a wake up call for Vallimont. It's the end of the road if something doesn't change and making it clear a guy isn't worth a roster spot is a pretty good way of saying "the end is near."

I can't see how August is even a remote possibility. Maaaaaayyyybe the end September if everything goes absolutely perfect. No inflammation. No soreness. No unrelated injuries. No COVID. He's unlikely to even start throwing from the mound until July and there's going to be more than a month of mound work before he's going full strength. Then there's a rehab assignment. The rotowire link I posted included a direct statement from Maeda on June 8th including the hope he could resume mound duty in 2-3 weeks and he wasn't sure if he'd return this year at all. I couldn't find the Twins Twitter statement regarding Maeda, but I don't have a Twitter account so it's possible it was for followers only or something.

The Twins pitching coaches may well be working with Henriquez to throw pitches he doesn't normally throw or throw certain pitches (changeup) more often or change the approach by throwing pitches in different zones. If Henriquez doesn't develop the changeup and prove he can throw it often, he will not be a viable starter. Best to figure out what he brings to the table. Wes Johnson challenged Balazovic to throw his changeup far more frequently and in different counts last year and there were plenty of growing pains. MLB pitchers need to be able to throw multiple pitches at any count and for strikes or batters can wait for the right situation and know what's coming to punish it. Unless you're Mariano Rivera, that ends poorly for the guy on the bump. To me, age is often irrelevant, like in this case. Henriquez is in his 5th year of minor leagues (4 years of competitive professional pitching) so it was required he be added to the 40 man to protect him. His promotion schedule wasn't particularly aggressive seeing only 1 mid-year promotion in his career.

Strotman was always a toss in piece in that trade. Expectations he was a valuable prospect were unreasonable in my opinion. When he was acquired from Tampa, I think a lot of members of the site saw the sparkly ERA/FIP and ignored the reasonability of that success and projectability of a guy who was issuing free passes like that. Last year Wes Johnson wanted Strotman to throw strikes instead of trying to pick at the zone because a 5+ BB/9 innings in the minors isn't going to be playable at the MLB level, but once Strotman started throwing strikes, hitters tee'd off on his pitches. This year, hitters are driving Strotman's pitches pretty hard again and it's hard to tell if the .400 BABIP is a function of luck or just predictability. He's got a 50% GB rate (not reliable) on Fangraphs so there's reason to think he could eat some middle innings if he worked more on inducing weak contact and less on chasing strikeouts... but ahem... pitch-to-contact philosophies have their limits, too. Considering how desperate the Twins were for pitchers at times this season and the fact he's already on the 40 man, it seems like Strotman is a leading candidate to clear 40 man roster space.

Maeda will not return this year, in my opinion. The article the OP linked wasn't up to date at the time on the latest from Maeda which was this: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220107/p2g/00m/0sp/057000c so reposting your own article as a source is pretty weak. A quick visit to any of the roto news pages like this one 4/29/22 https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/mlb/player/20580/kenta-maeda (paraphrase, on track for September without setbacks) or this 6/8/22 https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=12051 (won't even start throwing off the mound until July and this year is iffy) If you're going to post an article... at least do a tiny little bit of research.

Pitch framing doesn't seem to be a stat which can be valuable in small sample sizes. Jeffers has always been considered a good pitch framer, and he always had a reputation as a good defensive coming up through the system. Realmuto was +3 in 2020, +4 in 2021 and -1 this year so far. Looking at catchers with 1000+ pitches received 2020 - 23rd of 53 = +1 run (max +5, median 0, min -5)* only 500 pitches 2021 - 16th of 59 = +2 runs (max +10, median +1, min -18) 2022 - 6th of 17 = +2 runs (max +4, median -1, min -4) Jeffers is consistently a bit above average. He's not great at framing, but it appears his value is being inflated by small sample sizes looking at this year alone. The league will improve and Jeffers is likely to adjust a bit as well, the combination diminishing his defensive value. He's well below average at caught stealing rate, which is largely a function of pop time, arm strength and throw accuracy. Jeffers has been absolutely miserable 2 of his 3 years in MLB at controlling the run game, and he was a tick below average last year as well. It's clear Jeffers has a reputation of being easy to run on. In terms of passed balls, Jeffers is middle of the pack for the 27 catchers who have 1,000+ innings caught from 2020-2022 and he's among the best for wild pitches allowed. Basically, Jeffers is a well above average receiver, but poor thrower. He's an average-ish defensive catcher in MLB with a very poor bat. In terms of Jeffers' batting performance vs. his peers with 500+ plate appearances since 2020. wRC+ 83 = 22nd of 29. (133 max, 94 median, 71* min) *technically, Austin Hedges is wRC+ 41, but he's 30 points lower than everybody else. It's inexplicable how he's still playing, especially at $4MM/yr. Ooffffda.

Sanchez has been much better than advertised behind the plate this year so his actual performance makes me care a lot less about his performance reputation. The concept of defense first or offense first for positions has been (and should be) left in the past. It's about total production at whatever position a person plays. If the defense is passable, the offensive upside more than makes up for it. I'll take Gary Sanchez 7 out of 7 days vs. Drew Butera. Jeffers topics have been pretty common lately. He's been a bit unlucky, but it's becoming pretty clear Jeffers is not going to be an average or better asset at the plate, and Jeffers is defensively mediocre at catcher. I'll still suspect he gets a lot of the starts until at least the All Star break. If he hasn't improved by then, he'll get slapped with the permanent backup catcher title and the Twins will focus on identifying a starter for the future.

There's no news I know of. Here's what we do know. Under the absolute best case scenario, Sano would not be returning to any kind of significant rehab or athletic work until at least now. It's probably not the absolute best case scenario since the Twins waited until 9 days after the surgery to move Sano to the 60 day IL. Meaning, there shouldn't be any significant rehab to talk about yet.

Buxton is performing right where I'd expect him to perform. 5-6 WAR across a full season. Right now, Buxton has played in 46 of 63 games placing him at about a 120 game pace this year. More than I would have expected, but I'll happily take it!

Arraez's knees should be a lot less of an issue if he strengthens his legs and avoids keeps his weight under control. His sprint speed hasn't shown any improvement this year, but he does seem a little lighter seeing him in person. It's fun to watch him at the plate this year, especially after he struggled down the stretch last season. I felt the Twins were likely going to move him this offseason, and I still think they would have without the lockout condensing the offseason down. I'm a big fan of him, but I don't think he's an elite player like Gwynn and Carew were if Arraez doesn't increase his speed. There's also the issue of where he plays. He'll never get respect at 1B or DH without a huge influx of power you wouldn't expect from his smaller size. Playing 2B, Arraez is likely capable of being a perennial All Star.

I agree, they shouldn't (and won't) likely trade Correa if they're leading the division or even if they're in the playoffs. There are 38 games before the trade deadline. 7 games against the Guardians who are only 3.5 games back right now, and those games all come in the next two weeks. 4 games against the White Sox, who are 6.0 games back right now. The Guardians play 8 games against the White Sox, themselves before the deadline. The standings could look way different at the end of next month (even this month).

Miguel Sano underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus in early May. Typical timeframe is 4-8 weeks, but he was added to the 60 day IL on May 14th. This means Sano won't be available for return until after the All Star Break. He should be healthy before then, but including the rehab assignment he'll need, he'll probably be ready immediately when the break concludes giving him a couple weeks to showcase himself before the trade deadline. The Twins will undoubtedly be shopping the heck out of him, but he'll likely have negative trade value.

I don't feel like a lot of people who want to keep Correa are being realistic in this thread. Correa was never expected to be here next year. 1 yr $35MM with an additional 1 yr $35MM player option for an age 28 All Star caliber SS. That's what Correa would have to opt into at the end of the year. The options were always a risk and always bad for the Twins. The only reason Correa opts in is because he can't get more in free agency. If he can't get more in free agency that means he's severely hurt or had a terrible season. Signing Correa to a new contract is not an option because the Twins are not going to pony up that kind of money. This is what top SS contracts looked like last year, and this year the market is much tighter. Marcus Semien a31 = 7yrs $175MM Trevor Story a29 = 6yrs $140MM Corey Seager a28 = 10yrs $325MM Javier Baez a29 = 6yrs $140MM Correa will get north of $150MM, probably north of $200MM though I don't think he will encroach on Seager, but let's get a little realistic.

Past tense. There's nothing to predict because if Correa was healthy... he was healthy. Now the Twins can hope a healthy and hot Correa gets hurt after the deadline so not trading him will keep him here. A post deadline injury may reduce Correa's value and make him more likely to opt-in... but that seems like kind of a shitty way to think about things not to mention the injury could drag into the following season(s) and make Correa's $35MM/yr contract pretty burdensome. That scenario is largely a lose-lose.

Yes. I think it's clear the Twins front office saw Jeffers as a potential starting catcher but weren't 100% banking on it. If the Twins had confidence in Jeffers, they don't take on $9MM for Sanchez; they keep Rortvedt or sign a less expensive, obvious backup. They gave Jeffers at bats because they are hoping he'll perform. He's not performing. They'll continue to give him opportunities until the sample size is big enough to largely close the books on him and choose a different catcher as their primary (probably Sanchez).

No reason to boo Donaldson.

I wouldn't be interested in acquiring Syndergaard right now and the Angels won't be interested in moving him. Syndergaard has a history of picking up velocity in the 2nd half of the year and he IS pitching well on a team with strong aspirations of the World Series. The Angels have the 2 of the best players in all of baseball with Trout and Ohtani.

Correa is GONE after this year if he plays well and is healthy. Absolutely, 100%, guaranteed. The Twins will not pony up $150MM+ for him, and that's what he'll get.

Twins leading the division - Correa performing well and healthy = no. Twins in the playoff chase - Correa performing well and healthy = probably not. Twins likely out of it - Correa performing well and healthy = absolutely. Twins out of it - Correa performing well and healthy = absolutely. Twins leading the division - Correa not performing well or not healthy = probably. Twins in the playoff chase - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely. Twins likely out of it - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely. Twins out of it - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely.

I think it's clear the Twins didn't expect Jeffers to perform well, especially after last season. The front office wouldn't have gone out and traded for an arbitration eligible, fairly expensive catcher like Sanchez if they expected Jeffers to perform. The front office clearly did hope Jeffers would make the necessary adjustments at the plate, though, otherwise they wouldn't be giving him so many starts. Unfortunately, it does look like Jeffers' time as a starter is ticking down. I've made my previous prediction that Jeffers will have until the All Star Break before the Twins relegate him to expected career backup or MiLB roster filler. The Twins will likely move to sign Sanchez to a middle term 3-ish years contract if Jeffers doesn't turn it around. That said, it certainly does look like Jeffers has been unlucky so far so there may be a nice swing back in his favor.

Archer's been on a 4 inning, 80 pitch cap most of the season.

Archer's career numbers. ERA 1st time through = 3.13 2nd time through = 3.94 3rd time through = 4.32 FIP 1st time through = 3.34 2nd time through = 3.59 3rd time through = 4.22 xFIP 1st time through = 3.36 2nd time through = 3.62 3rd time through = 3.93 There is a noticeable drop off between the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, but as you start looking at the TTO's, you start getting into smaller and smaller sample sizes. Archer's xFIP 3rd time through is still better than a lot of middle relievers. The whole blanket 3rd time TTO movement is a whole lot of BS as far as I'm concerned. The end of the world is not guaranteed if a guy throwing a good game with a low pitch count goes back out there.