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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'm not insinuating the Twins have a 2 man bullpen, I just that I think Rogers and Duffey are important to keep and are among the highest risks for the Twins to trade because of their cost.
  2. bean5302
    I have no concerns about the Twins bullpen in 2022 so long as they extend Rogers and keep Duffey, which they should absolutely be doing. There are always a ton of cheap relief arms available in free agency and tons of options for relief arms in the minors.
  3. bean5302
    Here are my preferences, if possible, keeping in mind it takes 2 to tango and the Twins have no control over whether or not any of the impending FAs will actually be FAs since their current teams are all just as likely to extend. Trade: Polanco, Sano (eat $11MM), Buxton Acquire: Syndergaard Extend: Berrios, Rogers ($10MM 2022), Syndergaard (20 MM 1 year), Refsnyder (750k) Sign: Verlander (20MM 1-2yr AAV), Baez (20MM AAV), Cruz (12MM AAV) Release/Nontender: Cave, Garlick C = Garver, Jeffers 1B = Kirilloff 2B = Arraez SS = Baez 3B = Donaldson UI = Gordon LF = Larnach CF = Celestino RF = Kepler UO = Refsnyder DH = Cruz SR = Verlander, Berrios, Syndergaard, Balazovic, Winder, Maeda RP = Rogers, Duffey, maybe a couple other FA relievers. The rest of the bullpen from our system. This probably puts the Twins at $140MM (assuming they eat Sano's contract). If it's too much $$, might have to trade Donaldson and go with Miranda. Edited this because I forgot to put Maeda into the rotation (assuming 1 pitcher is down all the time)
  4. bean5302
    It's also worth considering the baseballs themselves are different between the minors and majors and pitchers often have to make adjustments when the come to the big show. I'd think the Twins would want to see him in person this year given his age and fringy status.
  5. bean5302
    xFIP is probably one of the best metrics for a SSS out of MiLB. BABIP, LOB, and low HR rates are not relevant for xFIP. Even so, xFIP still has potential weaknesses. No stat is perfect.
  6. bean5302
    I have no problems trading Rooker, but in order to get meaningful value, he's going to have to play at the MLB level and prove his MiLB numbers aren't a mirage at the MLB level. Sano is super hard to quantify. He's had a couple great seasons, a good season, a couple weak seasons and a couple outright clunkers. The weak and clunkers make up 4 of his past 5 seasons. It's who Sano is today that has his playing status in 2022 in question. Had Sano committed to being prepared to play 3rd base at a high level, I sincerely doubt we'd be having any such conversation right now. There's no doubt in my mind that Sano could be in the same category as Bryant and Machado. Unfortunately, Sano didn't have that commitment and as a player who cannot play a defensive position outside 1B, all his value is built into his bat making his leash very short when it comes to struggles at the plate.
  7. bean5302
    Gratz to the winners! An open and active community is key to keeping it active on sites like this one!
  8. bean5302
    It wasn't about Rodriguez not being worth his contract. Rodriguez was the best player in baseball at the time and he was worth his contract. The Yankees just couldn't really afford to take on the whole contract and the Rangers weren't going to eat a significant part of the contract without big compensation so the Yankees, shockingly, sent a great young player named Alfonso Soriano. Soriano was already a 2 time All Star coming off consecutive 5 WAR seasons at age 28 and he had 3 years of team control left. That's why the Rangers were willing to pick up $67MM.
  9. bean5302
    The Twins could totally, probably, maybe swing that... if they threw in $16MM to cover the rest of this season's salary, plus cover next year and his $2.75MM buyout for not exercising the $14MM team option in 2023. Woof.
  10. bean5302
    Seems like a lot of low hanging fruit on the 40 man for next year. Thorpe, Smeltzer, Cave, Garlick, Astudillo, etc.
  11. bean5302
    Rooker had an OPS of .960 and an OPS+ of 163 in his first 21 plate appearances at the MLB level last year before getting hurt and people were clamoring for him to start the season on the 26 man. He played 8 games this year and people want to release him, haha. Playing Rooker every day is the best thing for the Twins and for Rooker. I really do expect the universal DH to be in the next CBA and when it happens, NL clubs are going to be very hungry for bats. If Rooker can even pull off an OPS above .750, there will be interest in him. In regard to Sano, I wonder how long of a leash the Twins will give him before pulling the plug? Even if the Twins ate his entire contract, I doubt they could find a trade partner this year and I'm sure they don't want to rely on him to provide any value next year. I'm guessing the Twins will try to trade him while eating all or the majority of his contract this offseason.
  12. bean5302
    I mean, the best news from this is Kirilloff is expected to have about an 8 week or 56 day recovery time so it shouldn't be a factor for him in 2022. Since Kirilloff remains on the 10 day IL, it does seem like the Twins are hoping for a quicker than normal recovery so he can get back onto the field this year despite the rumors his season is officially done. There are also some news the Twins may look for opportunities for Kirilloff to get some winter ball time if he's not able to make it back for the regular season. Even if he has recovered a little early, it'd be awfully unexpected for him to be ready in time for a rehab assignment while the MiLB season was still ongoing. Rough break for a guy the Twins really need to pan out.
  13. bean5302
    Shoemaker accepted his assignment to AAA when he didn't have to. It seems reasonable the Twins told him he'd be a starter and have the opportunity to work on his game with the possibility of being recalled or traded. If that's not the case, Shoemaker wouldn't have a good reason to accept an assignment and the Twins would have just released him.
  14. bean5302
    Sorry, without a link, your comment is not credible in light of the dozens of printed articles I found stating the Twins were in the bidding and had made offers, were meeting with Wheeler's agents and talking directly to Wheeler himself. In regard to the podcast... I guess I could struggle to wade through the hour long rambling babble to find the quote. Just point me to the podcast in a link. Actually, I think it's fair to concede there weren't a few more starters who were objectively better than Darvish. deGrom, Cole, Greinke, Wheeler, Lynn, Bieber, Ryu and Scherzer were all better. How much? Not a ton for most of them, but they were better. When I say "better" I'm talking about in terms of rotational position. Ace, #2, #3 #4 #5 type of style as defined by the pitcher you would most want on the mound in a 1 game playoff. Darvish's injury history is irrelevant to how good he is. It was already factored in as the only reason he didn't get $200MM+ instead of $126MM. In any case, unless you find a link to your source for Wheeler outright telling the Twins not to make any offers, this will be my last post on it. If you do find the link, I'll be happy to listen and eat crow if what you're saying is true.
  15. bean5302
    Please provide any legitimate source for Wheeler's agent telling the Twins to stop wasting their time unless it was in regard to an offer Wheeler's camp already rejected, but the Twins kept floating. If the Twins had made a 5 year / 125MM offer, Wheeler would be wearing a Twins uniform. Instead, they low-balled Wheeler relative to other offers. Darvish is a legitimate ace, but he came with (and still comes with) injury risk. He's a pitcher who can completely shut down an opposing playoff lineup. Calling him a #2 or #3 based on WAR which includes his injury lost 2018 isn't an argument made in good faith. Darvish is arguably as good as any pitcher not named deGrom from 2019-2021, you know, when he was actually pitching.
  16. bean5302
    FIP is not based on ERA and doesn't use the LOB% as a factor so the strand rate is utterly irrelevant. FIP is a tool used to create a predictive/expected ERA based on past metrics without considering defense or base running, etc. If Megill's LOB% was 0% or 100%, it would literally make no impact to his FIP. His FIP is what you might expect his ERA should be based on how many people got on base and how they reached. In regard to the FB rate, I assumed you were talking about fly ball rate, not fastball rate. My apologies, I misunderstood your intent. Well, looking at age, velocity and fastball rate, Berrios is age 27 throws his (2) fastballs at at average of 94mph and is 56% fastball. Megill is age 26 (basically) thows his (1) fastball at 95mph and has a 58% fastball rate. They're essentially the same except Megill throws a tick harder and is a year younger so I would argue the risk here is pretty similar based on your critera. I agree. There's no way in hell the Mets are trading Megill for Berrios right now and that was my point in posts above somewhere I'd expect the pre-arb pitcher the Twins could target as being David Peterson, but folks are already upset with the idea of getting Megill so I'd expect them to lose their excrement over a trade including Peterson haha
  17. bean5302
    I've never understood how fans convince themselves of this. The Twins made uncompetitive offers to Wheeler and Darvish for just two examples. Either the front office failed to anticipate what would be competitive or they weren't really expecting to sign those pitchers. If the Twins had made Wheeler a 5 / 125MM offer or Darvish a 6 / 130MM, they'd both be wearing Twins uniforms today. The only way the "player X wanted to play somewhere else" works is if your team actually makes an offer of essentially equal or higher value. As far as "value" goes, it's based on WAR, but value is not equal to different teams and that's explained when you research the metric. 1 win is a lot more valuable to a team with 89 wins than it would be to a team with 60 wins or 110 wins. The point is not to determine value for a specific team in a specific season. The intent is to determine an approximate value for a player in MLB as a whole because these metrics are used to evaluate the players themselves, not the teams.
  18. bean5302
    I'm certainly not enamored with him. If Megill was an obvious, dominant, top of the rotation starter, he'd be untouchable. The Twins would be starting that conversation with half their farm system. Like Berrios + Buxton + Lewis + Balazovic + Kirilloff for a dominant, top of the rotation starter with 6 years of team control.
  19. bean5302
    The Twins spend under the league median every year and refuse to spend when they have an obvious need and opportunity for a World Series run. The ownership is very opposed to long contracts due to risk, but they're willing to take the same annual risk across multiple short contracts which don't pan out. Couple all that with the inability the organization has at developing pitching and the Twins find themselves at the spot they're in now. I disagree the Twins cannot afford to spend $150MM. You need to spend money to make money. When the Twins put a winning product on the field, they'll get the revenue they need for the $150MM budget.
  20. bean5302
    In general, I look at each acquisition assuming they could take a step down and decline. A guy with a 4.00 ERA can easily become a guy with a 5.00 ERA for a year. Especially as they age into their mid/late 30s. It's one the reasons I almost always advocate for getting top free agents. If they take a step back, they're still valuable. If you go bargain shopping and they take a step back, you don't really even want to play them and the money is totally wasted because other teams don't want them. I view Shoemaker as a dumpster dive. He hadn't been a solid starter for the previous 4 years (2017-2020). Happ was also a bargain signing with plenty of warning signs. Colombe has a 2.70 ERA and 2.58 FIP over his past 10 appearances. Even since May 1, Colombe has a 3.33 ERA, though his FIP is 4.16. Relief pitchers can get hit pretty hard by a few bad outings.
  21. bean5302
    His FIP is 3.72 which takes into consideration to the obvious LOB luck fueled 2.63 ERA and is almost as good as Berrios, albeit in a small sample size at the MLB level. Fangraphs shows a 38.7% FB rate, not a 58.2% rate you're quoting, and Megill is generating a lot of ground balls, which is nice to see. I hadn't looked into his exit velocity allowed, but I went ahead and did that now, too. Megill is 24th out of 461 in average exit velocity for pitchers with more than 50 batted ball events this year at 89.5mph. This low exit velocity and low barrel rate along with the high ground ball rate could help explain the lack of line drives allowed. That said, I did notice that even though Megill hasn't been allowing hitters to barrel up the ball well against him, he has a hard hit percentage is higher than average so I guess you could look at the hard hit percentage standalone and call that a red flag. I agree 94.6mph is below 95.0mph on his average fastball, though it feels a little disingenuous to be so concerned over 0.4mph. Megill is throwing strikes, not giving up a ton of hits and striking guys out. His success at the MLB level has followed solid production from the minors with no real hiccups and a fast promotion rate. Signs point to Megill potentially being better than Jose Berrios and the Mets have him under control for 6 years.
  22. bean5302
    Can't disagree with Balazovic being promoted at this point. He's got nothing left to prove in AA. Even if the Twins were having him work on something, he's clearly not being challenged any longer.
  23. bean5302
    Thorpe was never the same after TJ. Lost a couple mph and he was a B- or C+ prospect before he tore the UCL. MLB hitters scorched his pitches and Thorpe has hardly been impressive in the minors after 2018. I think it was a big mistake to keep Thorpe on the roster instead of Tyler Wells this past offseason. Since Dobnak is under contract for a couple more years, I can't see the Twins ditching him without some more opportunities.
  24. bean5302
    I don't see the Mets giving Megill up as part of a Berrios trade. I'm not seeing any red flags in Megill's performance, he's team controlled for years and years and right now his results are arguably already on par with Berrios. Megill was drafted out of college and rose through the ranks fast as this is only his 2nd full season in their system and he's already pitching well at the MLB level. If the Twins are being reasonable, the pre-arb type of pitcher you get in return for Berrios is more like a David Peterson along with Mauricio and Allen.
  25. bean5302
    I like your field of stuffed strawmen. Very rustic!
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