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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Any self respecting manager would quit if all the on field decisions were being made for him and against his wishes. Furthermore, GM's generally don't hire managers who are not on board with a management philosophy the front office believes in. Baldelli buys into the TTO (third-time through order) logic, which I think is totally flawed. Tyler Mahle has been better TTO this year than STO both in ERA and FIP. My biggest problem with the TTO myth is how pitchers are pulled. If the pitcher runs into problems with the TTO, their leash is short. Often there are inherited base runners, inflating FIP, and the bullpen allows those runners to score, inflating ERA. The other problem I have is the drop in performance between FTO and STO is greater than STO and TTO. Not to mention, it doesn't matter if there's a drop in performance for TTO if the bullpen arms still aren't better than the starting pitcher in the first place.
  2. bean5302
    Wasn't his wrist. Hurt his elbow diving for a ball.
  3. bean5302
    Correction, Wallner had a rough start at AAA, but that seems mostly luck related. First 10 .105/.227/.105, OPS .332, 13.6% BB, 37.4% K Last 11 .286/.412/.619, OPS 1.031, 15.7% BB, 25.4% K Wallner's plate discipline is MUCH improved this year. He's become a dangerous hitter.
  4. bean5302
    Full No Trade Clause. Buxton is going nowhere, and even if the Twins wanted to trade him, he's really not worth much in regard to surplus value. Buxton is a good player. A very good player and he's on pace for 123 games and 510 plate appearances this year. This was the absolute BEST case scenario for Buxton. He is not the reason the Twins aren't winning.
  5. bean5302
    The Yankees have scored 3 or fewer runs 45, yes, FORTY FIVE times this year! I think their whole line up is going to be kicked to the curb. Side note, 6 fewer games scoring 3 or less, 13 or 14 games above the Twins in the standings. It's not the games the Twins score 3 or fewer causing the problem. It's needing to score 10 to win a game. It's the 46 games the Twins have allowed 5 or more runs. If you allow 5 or more, you have to score 6 or more to win. That's not reasonable. Even the very best offenses in the league don't average 6 runs or score 6+ runs even 1/2 the time. The Twins' pitching results are the problem.
  6. bean5302
    I like soft soap. Doesn't leave a gross pile of scum on the vanity top, refill containers are cheap and huge so they last forever and you can have a one with different scents on each side of the faucet. Looks nice, smells nice. Makes your guests feel like you went an extra step.
  7. bean5302
    That was a beautiful attempt by Gordon. He couldn't have played it better with an almost perfect straight angle to the ball and he missed the ball by an inch off the tip of his glove, not feet, like a Jake Cave dive. If Gordon doesn't go for the catch, there's no telling which angle the ball takes as it bounces off the wall in the corner of left field. Regardless, 2 runs score as it was 2 outs so the runners went on contact with a run already crossing the plate as Gordon was getting up from his dive and another runner on their way in. Even worse, there's no out at the plate. No, now there's a runner on 2nd or 3rd with 2 outs and a tie game. Things worked out the absolute best way they could, ironically. Attached is an image of Gordon's route. He took virtually a perfect angle on that ball. I should clarify. Orange is the line drive path. Black dots are Nick Gordon and Carlos Correa. Gray dots are the other fielders (Byron Buxton runs all the way over to Gordon). Blue is the throw from Gordon to Correa. The problem is at the center of the red circle... or it's the runners paths. Either way.
  8. bean5302
    I'm interested to see if Jose Miranda can keep on fire and close the gap on Julio Rodriguez as a RoY candidate (it'll be a very tall call) or if he can just continue mashing. I'm interested to see if Maeda can return and how he looks. I'm interested to see how Duran closes out the season. I'm interested in potentially seeing Matt Wallner and Simeon Woods-Richardson at the MLB level. That's in addition to whether or not the Twins can pull out a division win and advance all the way to a World Series victory.
  9. bean5302
    Miller is holding his own at the plate in Low-A at age 19. The triple slash may not look great, but the league is a hard core pitcher's league anyway. Miller's wRC+ 95 is right about league average and right where it has been all year. Much more important to me, Miller has clearly been working on his strikeout rate and made a massive improvement without taking fewer walks. His on base percentage has been great, near .350 all season. Since the All Star Break his walk vs. K rate looks way better and way more sustainable. BB% = 15.2% K% = 16.5% (down from 25.5% in the first half of the year) At age 19, there is plenty, and I mean PLENTY of time for his power to develop. I wouldn't expect Miller to be knocking at the MLB door prior to 2025.
  10. bean5302
    The Turbo Tubs? A name as bad as their uniforms, ugh. At least they're not the Amarillo Sod Poodles I guess. Aside from that, pretty nice start for Woods-Richardson as he stretches back out. Only 1 walk, and he didn't give up many hits with plenty of strikeouts. 78 pitches in 4 innings isn't good, but the 69% strike rate tells me there were probably a lot of pitches fouled off.
  11. bean5302
    What does Ryan, Ober, Winder, Smeltzer, Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stashak, Alcala or Ryan have to do with the current state of the Twins' farm system? Is Thielbar going to be listed as a top prospect for Minnesota next year? We're not developing reliable starters. That's the issue. A whole bunch of middle relievers and a guy who the front office watched for 1 month before calling him up after a trade does not equal a successful development system. The current front office has been no more successful (arguably significantly worse) at developing pitchers than the previous regimes.
  12. bean5302
    First inning was solid, after that, Gray struggled with control a bit and you can't be walking guys and putting yourself into 3-2 counts against a dangerous hitting and confident team on an obvious path to the playoffs like the Dodgers. They'll make pitchers pay.
  13. bean5302
    In my opinion, plan A is Royce Lewis as the starting shortstop next year with Jermaine Palacios as his backup. There's no more kid glove time for Lewis. He needs to play.
  14. bean5302
    Lewis was walking 3 weeks after surgery. The surgery was non-standard as they elected to insert a brace to reinforce the joint and Lewis has the procedure performed in Dallas. Not sure the name of the place.
  15. bean5302
    I went through the 40 man roster projection in the last couple days on a thread around here somewhere. I don't see any crunches.
  16. bean5302
    As soon as spring training starts up, they'll move to the 60 day IL and be removed from the 40 man roster. Side note: Lewis is an interesting case at this point. Apparently, his doctors have him on an aggressive return path of as quick as 10 months, which could see him on the field just a couple weeks into the start of next year. If his quick recovery continues, I don't think the Twins will put him on the 60 day IL.
  17. bean5302
    This just a couple days after Baldelli gets tossed and makes the front page news for losing his mind during AND after the game.
  18. bean5302
    Maybe, but I'm guessing the front office is going to be looking to dump more salary based on the Twins probably losing money this year. Also, I'd wager it's far more likely the Twins decline their options and bring Archer or Bundy back on 1 year deals at $5-6MM or something like that.
  19. bean5302
    This was a bad start by Gray. When your starter gives up 4 runs (3 earned) and can't make it through 5 innings, you're not winning many games. If you expect the bullpen to go out there and pitch 4-1/3 innings giving up 0 runs, you're nuts. They'd be expected to give up at least 1 (2.07 ERA) and more likely 2 (4.14 ERA) over that span. This means the Twins would have needed to score 6-7 runs to win the game, reasonably. Gray had a couple starts in a row where he was lucky and the runners didn't cross the plate on him much, but that caught up to him a little.
  20. bean5302
    Archer has 0.4 fWAR this year. Not sure what's impressing you about him. I'm sure Archer is going to opt into his $10MM (mutual) option, though I'd hope the Twins do not. Bundy is a fair candidate for the Twins to bring back, but only if his results start mirroring his metrics. The long ball is destroying him in much the same way Tyler Duffey was experiencing. There aren't better $10MM options on the free agency market?
  21. bean5302
    Joe Ryan is a young guy and still trying to work out how his stuff plays against MLB batters who are also making adjustments. It's a game of chess right now, but Ryan's striking guys out well enough and showing solid enough control to stick. He is a fly ball pitcher so learning how to keep those balls in the park is going to be critical to his development. Ryan does not have the stuff to be a front line starter. His fastball is really deceptive, but his offspeed and breaking pitches haven't been effective this year. He's going to need to learn what works to set those bendy pitches up if he's going to reach his ceiling of a mid rotation arm. I feel confident saying he's at least got a spot in the rotation, though.
  22. bean5302
    There can also be some decisions based on what teams have roster space. Rookie Ball is unlimited, but the full season leagues are limited to 28-30 players and those MiLB teams are usually essentially at the limits. With the trade deadline in play and a lot of prospects being moved around, the Twins might keep people in Rookie Ball until they figure out where to move everybody around. Not so long ago, there were extended trade deadlines which might have impacted roster decisions longer into the season.
  23. bean5302
    Yes. It matters. Blue Jays at Rogers Center or Mariners at Target Field. If that doesn't matter to you, then I guess you don't care if the Twins win. It's also not based on 1 game. It's based on the Twins slowly giving up ground, then being passed based on overall play since the end of May.
  24. bean5302
    Ryan is pitching just like he was, he's just not getting lucky. He's experiencing regression to the mean. Joe Ryan is not and has never been the kind of pitcher you'd rely upon to lead a rotation. Joe Ryan - April/June vs. July/Aug 3.20 ERA & 4.65 xFIP vs. 5.33 ERA & 4.61 xFIP He's literally the same pitcher.
  25. bean5302
    For the love of all that is good, Jimmy Nelson needs to give his number to "W.D. Smith" so he can use the nickname WD40.
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