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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'm pretty sure it was a comment about no prospect in MLB having the tools Buxton does. FWIW, Twins fans sites were all calling Buxton the next Mike Trout while Trout was winning MVPs and Buxton was just out of rookie ball.
  2. bean5302
    Yes. Seriously. Lewis has plus plus speed. Lewis has a plus arm. Lewis has plus raw power. The hit tool is a bit of a question (just like Buxton). There's a reason Lewis was drafted #1 overall.
  3. bean5302
    For a 7 year veteran who's never even been an All Star selection, people sure are wound up. I don't think Buxton is worth nearly as much as other people on this site because you need 2 starting center fielders to have Buxton and the Twins would need to pay both of them because Buxton will be hurt 1/2 the season. That's just how it is. Assume the Twins sign Buxton at $16MM / year with the expectation of competing. They'd be out of their minds not to have another starting center fielder signed because Buxton will only play 60-80 games. Say the Twins sign Starling Marte for the 4 years and $80MM and Marte spends half his time at center and half splitting time with Celestino in left. Buxton / Marte = $26MM year = 5.5 WAR Kepler = $6.75MM = 2.0 WAR Marte / Celestino = $10MM = 2.75 WAR WAR needed from competitive outfield = 2.5 x 3 = 7.5. Actual outfield = $42.75MM / 10.25 WAR. Surplus = 2.75 WAR. The Twins outfield will be pretty mediocre using this method. Marte = $20MM year = 5.0 WAR Kepler = $6.75MM = 2.0 WAR Celestinto $0.50MM = 2.0 WAR Actual outfield = $27.25 = 9.0 WAR. In the keep Buxton scenario, the Twins pick up 1.25 WAR for a cost of $15.50MM. A terrible deal.
  4. bean5302
    Royce Lewis does and he's not even outside the franchise.
  5. bean5302
    The Blue Jays started talking to Berrios about an extension almost day 1 of having him. It took 4 months to get an agreement in place.
  6. bean5302
    "No" to trading for a 1 year pitcher without negotiating an extension before the trade. What does a Bassitt extension look like? Tough to say. Bassitt is getting up there in terms of free agent pitchers. He'll be 33 next year and his xFIP hasn't looked great. Quite frankly, he scares me because his career ERAs/FIPs are in line, but the last few years, he's outperformed the xFIPs dramatically. His home/road splits were substantial last year, but the HR/FB rate tracked whether or not he was in Oakland.
  7. bean5302
    MLB teams try to buy wins at $6MM / WAR. MLB teams generally get wins at a cost of $8MM / WAR. Berrios has proven himself as a 4 WAR pitcher at this point so in free agency, I could see Berrios getting up to $24MM per season. Keep in mind, that's not proven "Ace" money. Guys like Scherzer, Verlander, Cole, Kershaw, Greinke have all commanded well over $30MM / season. Based on how the Twins started negotiations with Berrios at the same time as Kepler and Polanco, I would wager the Twins were never ready to concede the concept of a bargain coming their way. Kepler and Polanco signed deals which were largely viewed as abusively in favor of the Twins. Those extensions were used as examples of how the MLBPA and CBA had failed MLB players right about the time it was revealed the Twins front office had won a trophy for beating down arbitration eligible players the hardest in MLB about the same time. Neither Polanco nor Kepler had the advantage Berrios did, though. Berrios had some track record and he was in a coveted position as a starting pitcher. Polanco was not viewed as a shortstop and Kepler played RF. Berrios was willing to bet on himself and it paid off. I'm sure the front office is confused at the idea Berrios was already worth more to Toronto after a couple months than he was to the Twins after they grew him in their own farm system.
  8. bean5302
    A little bird on the internet told me. I don't think it's officially announced.
  9. bean5302
    Word is Palacios is signed and he needs to be on the 40 man. He didn't appear on the MiLB free agency report. As such, I'd expect to see him at Spring Training. I could see him getting the utility infielder job if Arraez is traded with Gordon getting the utility outfielder role.
  10. bean5302
    Kilts and tartans covering the entire sky!
  11. bean5302
    Ryan pitched about 115 innings in total last year between AAA, MLB and the Olympics. Modern pitchers go 5-6 innings per start so that would be 160-192 innings if he started all 32 games. I wouldn't expect the Twins to be looking to limit his innings below 160. I also believe the Twins are more likely to implement a pitch count limit than an actual innings limit so it may come down to how efficient Ryan is during the season. Even more will depend on how Ryan feels and any signs of fatigue. In regard to Ober, I'd also think the Twins wouldn't be concerned about him throwing 160 innings. Injuries have riddled Ober's career so here's hoping he stays healthy, but expecting 32 starts out of him might be considered pretty optimistic. Ober pounds the strike zone and walks few hitters so I'd expect him to be pretty efficient when effective. With Ober's age, I'd think the Twins would pretty much leave it up to how Ober feels or signs of him fading due to fatigue. In regard to their overall performance, I'd hope both can keep their ERA/FIP under 4.50. That would be a success. Everything under 4.25 would be ice cream on top.
  12. bean5302
    SDI rankings shouldn't be used with teams that shift a lot. UZR/150 = -1.1 = Average Shortstop Range Factor / 9 = 4.03 vs. league average 3.81 = Excellent SDI = 11.8 = Excellent Range Factor and SDI aren't accurate for modern baseball because they don't account for the shift. Range Factor and SDI are based on how many outs the fielder is making directly or assisting with. The Twins shift a lot meaning Simmons gets more opportunities to field balls so the Range Factor and SDI values are inflated.
  13. bean5302
    So much of what St. Peter talks about is really just perserverence. Be willing to take job risks. Be willing to move. Be willing to start your own business, even. Network with people. It's a recipe for higher income and more options in terms of where you want to be in any company or industry hierarchy across the board. If you remain committed, you'll eventually find yourself in a spot you want.
  14. bean5302
    Wallner is really impressing in the Arizona Fall League. He's managed to keep his overall strike out rate under 30.0% with a walk rate right at 10.0% and I think that's the part I'm most excited about seeing. It lends a little credence to him being able to transistion to high minors and MLB without probably relying entirely on mistake pitches. That said, I think I'm calculating a .473 BABIP, which is ludicrously high.
  15. bean5302
    fWAR is based on FIP. bWAR is based on ERA. In a perfect world, those two stats match each other pretty closely; however, there are some pitchers out there who consistently have results above or below their FIP so using a predictive stat (like FIP) isn't as valuable in evaluating what actually happened. I "prefer" using bWAR looking back at value for contracts.
  16. bean5302
    When it comes to evaluating pitching performances, I'd prefer to see bWAR since that's what actually happened vs. fWAR which is what could have happened. More than anything, what the commonality in Twins pitcher signings is going mid market and cheaper doesn't pay.
  17. bean5302
    Jeffers looked pretty rough in the more extensive exposure to MLB pitching this year. He's moved up the ladder pretty quickly so getting a feel for Jeffers' bat is tough as there just isn't a lot to look at from the high minors. Jeffers really struggled against the slider and sinker in 2021 whereas he handled the slider very well in 2020 and was neutral on the sinker. Jeffers was also much pull heavy in 2021 after using all the fields in 2020. Honestly, Jeffers' performance in 2021 shows very little luck involved. His wOBA and xWOBA were close. He just struck out a lot more, walked less, and didn't hit balls as hard as he did in 2020. It's too early to tell if Jeffers can make the adjustments he needs to make in order to be average or better at the plate. Being a catcher, he can provide value at wRC+ 90 or better, it's just not ideal.
  18. bean5302
    A new CBA is going to be negotiated. It's tough to say what the MLBPA will or will not want or how closely they're interested in the deployment of pitchers. They're definitely super interested in the "pitch clock" and other changes MLB has made to how you can deploy pitchers such as how MLB has eliminated the LOOGY. To say the MLBPA has no control over the rules is inaccurate.
  19. bean5302
    There is a reason for starters and relievers. Relievers are pitchers who cannot be successful while starting. Usually, that has to do with being unable to fool hitters multiple times because of limited pitch offerings or major splits issues when facing right handed or left handed hitters. Relievers are situational. Relievers rely much more on mystery than starters do. No matter how you look at it, the more times a hitter sees a pitcher or the more innings a pitcher throws, the more likely the chink in the armor will be magnified. Only going 1.5 times through a line up in 3.0 inning appearances instead of 3 times through a lineup in a 7 inning appearance will only shield the "not good enough to be starters" middle relievers for a short time before exposing all the smoke and mirrors. The best starters can through lineups over and over while being at least as effective as a middle innings reliever. If the Twins are committed to rebuilding and potentially losing 100 games in the experiment, they may wind up being correct in the all short innings scenario. Seems strange they'd dump Gant if that was the approach... Then again, Falvey seems to be one of those types always interested in a new project and somebody else's shiny piece of scrap.
  20. bean5302
    The CBA covers how how players are paid, how much they're paid, how players are rostered, and changes to the games rules. MLB does not have the right to change rules without the MLBPA's approval unless there has been at least one year of negotiation under the current CBA, for example. https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf It's 373 pages long. Read it at your leisure, but know it will be null and void in like 2 weeks, haha.
  21. bean5302
    The whole 3 pitchers for 3 innings thing works great... except when a pitcher or two has a bad day and he can't make it more than 1 inning. Have a couple blow out games where you burn through 6 pitchers and you've got nothing to call on.
  22. bean5302
    People like referencing Tampa Bay, but would never accept the methodology the Rays employ. We wouldn't even be talking about a Buxton extension. He wouldn't even have gotten an offer from the Rays because every team in baseball would know he was going to be traded. Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Sano, Donaldson (who wouldn't be on the team to begin with) would all be on the open trade market. At least 3 of the 5 would be gone. Also, the Rays were miserable for a decade while they built up their farm system and no, they're not "always a contender" as they finished 2014-2017 under .500 every year. The Rays have an unorthodox approach similar to Oakland, but the Rays' have been better at developing pitching than the A's, and the Rays seem to have a little more payroll flexibility when they need it.
  23. bean5302
    Make it 100 losses and I'll agree even more.
  24. bean5302
    I understand your skepticism, which is why I started looking into Escobar's speed, etc. Andrelton Simmons has lost more than a step or two as he's approached and moved into his 30s. It happens frequently. In Escobar's case, no quantifyable physical decline in the stats showed up. If he's just as fast as he was, and his arm is just as strong as it was and he's actively been playing on that side of the infield, moving him back to shortstop doesn't seem far fetched.
  25. bean5302
    Because Eduardo Escobar was considered a glove first shortstop when the Twins got him for Liriano, he grades out as a career average shortstop (UZR/150 +2.4), and his speed and arm as as good as ever. Gardy gave the starting shortstop job to defensive wizard Pedro Florimon and Molitor gave the job to 1 year wonder Danny Santana not because Escobar wasn't capable of playing shortstop, but because the Twins, in their infinite wisdom, believed more in Florimon and Santana being MLB caliber players. Escobar forced his way into starting and was established at 3B before Polanco was called up. Polanco cannot play 3rd base and Molitor didn't think he could play SS, but the front office wanted Polanco tested and they desperately wanted him to improve there. Escobar was viewed as a short term asset so he was traded to Arizona, who didn't need a shortstop so they played Escobar at 3B. Meanwhile, Polanco is one of the worst starting shortstops to play at the MLB level in the past 20 years (career UZR/150 -11.0). Escobar just hasn't been needed at SS is what it boils down to.
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